Do any experts predict Bush NOT to be a stud? (1 Viewer)

[Shiver44]

Him not being taken #1 overall by the Texans had everything to do with money and making a financial business decision. Filling a team need appeared to be secondary, as the draft unfolded and using hingsight to look back at what happened.

That is entirely wrong. The Texans filled their largest need. Don't believe me, maybe you'll believe the stats; 10-15th in all major Rushing statistics

30-32nd in all Defensive statistics

ZERO, i.e the number of first round picks the Denver Broncos have needed to field a great rushing attack.

 

[Adam Sommer]

Sammie Smith

Andre Ware

Blair Thomas

David Klingler

Rick Mirer

Heath Shuler

Ki-Jana carter

Ryan Leaf

Curtis Enis

I guess you've got to play the game

The point is that a lot of players have come in the NFL with tons of hype and bombed. You just never know, regardless of what the "experts" say.

My prediction is that Bush will not be the Michael Jordan of the NFL, but will be a solid player. The two things that concern me are his lack of carries in college and Deuce McAllister. Sure it helps having McAllister in NFL/football terms (much like he had a compliment in college ball), but for fantasy, it probably hurts.

 

[FTRWRTR]

Ppl are comparing bush to HOF'ers like sanders and gale sayers or future HOF'er marshall faulk but when it's all said and done I'll think he'll be the rb version of michael vick. By that I mean bush will be exciting to watch and make some great plays to help his team win but as far as his ff value goes it'll be good but not great.

 

[Adam Sommer]

Ppl are comparing bush to HOF'ers like sanders and gale sayers or future HOF'er marshall faulk but when it's all said and done I'll think he'll be the rb version of michael vick. By that I mean bush will be exciting to watch and make some great plays to help his team win but as far as his ff value goes it'll be good but not great.

I completely agree. Remember most "experts" discuss his NFL impact and value, not his fantasy value.I think he is a great addition to the Saints, and along with Drew Brees, will give them an amazing offense. BUT, the Saints suck on defense, which means more playing from behind OR high scoring games, which both lead to passing not running. Plus, McAllister will get carries.

In the fantasy football world, most of the time a stud RB gets almost all carries for that team and a least averages close to 20 per game. I do not think either will be true in Bush's case.

 

[NoFBinLA]

I like Bush, I think he has the skils to be a great player - but as has been said, if I'm in a 1 player keeper league, I can't afford to wait on him to develope - and as much as I think he has great upside, he may not show it all this year.

Take Caddy or Brown -- they are the clear #1, and both solid backs.

Just MO, though. In a Dynasty League, I might do different.

 

[WhoDat]

Him not being taken #1 overall by the Texans had everything to do with money and making a financial business decision.  Filling a team need appeared to be secondary, as the draft unfolded and using hingsight to look back at what happened. 

That is entirely wrong. The Texans filled their largest need. Don't believe me, maybe you'll believe the stats; 10-15th in all major Rushing statistics

30-32nd in all Defensive statistics

ZERO, i.e the number of first round picks the Denver Broncos have needed to field a great rushing attack.

I'll give you that. The Texans were void of a traditional 4-3 DE and Williams appears to be the next big thing. Then I would restate that point as Bush was passed equal parts due to a team need and equal parts due to finances/signability.

 

[SSOG]

I'll give you that. The Texans were void of a traditional 4-3 DE and Williams appears to be the next big thing. Then I would restate that point as Bush was passed equal parts due to a team need and equal parts due to finances/signability.

I agree that finances played a big part in the decision, too. And well they should have!Let's say that Mario Williams and Reggie Bush are both going to go down in history as the best to ever play their respective position, and will be exactly equal in terms of contribution to the team. Let's say also that a top-16 RB (top 50%) can be had for $2 million, and a top-32 DE (top 50%) can be had for $5 million. It makes more sense to grab Mario Williams, then, because a #1 DE/Good RB is $3 million cheaper than a #1 RB/Good DE.

To make a comparison to fantasy football... let's say that Peyton Manning and Larry Johnson are going to finish the season with the exact same VBD this season. I mean, exactly the same, down to the tenth of a point. Who do you draft first? Larry Johnson, of course, because Peyton Manning + a 5th Round RB will score fewer points than Larry Johnson + a 5th round QB. It's not just a question of TALENT AND CONTRIBUTION, it's a question of dropoff and opportunity cost, as well.

 

[Bri]

Here's the problem with experts. The "experts" never predict *ANY* high-first round pick to NOT be a stud. I mean, where were all the experts saying Ron Dayne was going to be a scrub, or saying that Tim Couch was going to be a collossal failure?

Don't make decisions based on what the experts say. The experts don't know squat.

Didn't Tim Couch have a decent rookie season, then his arm fell off?

Does it matter what reason he busted for? Will Reggie Bush owners be alright if Bush busts because his arm fell of, because you know, at least he wasn't the Ryan Leaf of runningbacks?The point is the experts always predict great things for top-5 picks.

people pay millions of dollars for these predictions and non one expects every one to come true.I would say any Couch prediction is a wash. He got sacked so often, they never built him a line, his coaches werfe awful, and he probably averaged 3k yards when he played. 3k is just fine, if not very good, for a young QB. QBs like pitchers can throw their arm out. RBs seem to tear their knees up fairly frequently. Some injuries are unpredictable and the nature of the beast. I'd say Couch is a wash.

I'd also mention that young Bledsoe took his share of hits and made it thru to put up HOF numbers thus far. David Carr is hoping this is finally the year he doesn't get beaten. Pennington's arm might be done. Hence...nature of the beast

Alright, fantastic, you're missing the point.1. Experts NEVER predict top-5 picks will bust.

2. Some top-5 picks will bust.

3. The title of this thread is "Do any experts predict Bush NOT to be a stud?"

4. My opinion is that what the experts think is irrelevent, based on points #1 and #2.

I'm missing the point...yeah

 

[brobe4]

Dynasty leagues Bush=Gold

Bottom line the kid can play football.

 

[Shiver44]

I think Bush's main value is;

1. In Keeper/Dynasty leagues

2. In PPR leagues

In a redraft, I do not think he is worth the price you have to pay to get him.

 

[DrJ]

BUT, the Saints suck on defense, which means more playing from behind OR high scoring games, which both lead to passing not running.

Bush will be one of those types that isn't effected by this nearly as much. No matter whether they are running or passing the ball, he will be an option.

 

[Shiver44]

BUT, the Saints suck on defense, which means more playing from behind OR high scoring games, which both lead to passing not running.

Bush will be one of those types that isn't effected by this nearly as much. No matter whether they are running or passing the ball, he will be an option.

The Saints having a terrible defense is EXTREMELY GOOD for Reggie Bush. That means less LenDale...err.. Deuce McAllister on the field. That means more 3-WR sets, with him catching tons of passes. He could put up 70-ish catches next year and I wouldn't be surprised. That's what makes him special. We've seen elusive, fast, 5'10" 200 pound backs before. The only RB who comes close to Bush in Receiving ability is Marshall Faulk.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

My prediction is that Bush will not be the Michael Jordan of the NFL, but will be a solid player. The two things that concern me are his lack of carries in college and Deuce McAllister. Sure it helps having McAllister in NFL/football terms (much like he had a compliment in college ball), but for fantasy, it probably hurts.

He had nearly 200 carries in 12 games last year, which over 16 games comes out to a bit over 250 which is right around the number that would be perfect for Bush (Faulk had 253 carries in his career best seasons).Don't get caught in the trap of seeing the term RBBC and assuming that neither RB got a large enough workload. With the amount USC ran the ball there were plenty of carries to go around.

BUT, the Saints suck on defense, which means more playing from behind OR high scoring games, which both lead to passing not running.

I've seen this mentioned a few times as well, but as I said before I think this could help Bush quite a bit. Bush has the better skills for this situation and should be in in passing situations like when they're behind. This also lends to more receptions, more screens, more draws, etc all of which have Bush out in open space and play more to his strength than lining up in I-form all game long.

 

[thayman]

I'll give you that.  The Texans were void of a traditional 4-3 DE and Williams appears to be the next big thing.  Then I would restate that point as Bush was passed equal parts due to a team need and equal parts due to finances/signability.

I agree that finances played a big part in the decision, too. And well they should have!Let's say that Mario Williams and Reggie Bush are both going to go down in history as the best to ever play their respective position, and will be exactly equal in terms of contribution to the team. Let's say also that a top-16 RB (top 50%) can be had for $2 million, and a top-32 DE (top 50%) can be had for $5 million. It makes more sense to grab Mario Williams, then, because a #1 DE/Good RB is $3 million cheaper than a #1 RB/Good DE.

To make a comparison to fantasy football... let's say that Peyton Manning and Larry Johnson are going to finish the season with the exact same VBD this season. I mean, exactly the same, down to the tenth of a point. Who do you draft first? Larry Johnson, of course, because Peyton Manning + a 5th Round RB will score fewer points than Larry Johnson + a 5th round QB. It's not just a question of TALENT AND CONTRIBUTION, it's a question of dropoff and opportunity cost, as well.

You also have to figure that Kubiak has always been able to just plug pretty much any RB in his system and they have had success. DE not so much....

 

[Gridiron Legends1]

This might be a stupid question but do any of you foresee your leagues allowing you to start Bush at WR if the Saints are lining him up out wide as much or more than in the backfield?

 

[wannabee]

This might be a stupid question but do any of you foresee your leagues allowing you to start Bush at WR if the Saints are lining him up out wide as much or more than in the backfield?

No. The reason, imo, is that most leagues will be bound to how NFL.com or the team designates the player, with the uniform issues included.

 

[Sidewinder]

... BUT, the Saints suck on defense, which means more playing from behind OR high scoring games, which both lead to passing not running. Plus, McAllister will get carries.

...

The Saints having a terrible defense is EXTREMELY GOOD for Reggie Bush. That means less LenDale...err.. Deuce McAllister on the field.

...

The defense has been totally overhauled, starting with a new DC, to a totally new scheme, to potentially as many as 7 new starters on the D side of the ball. Recent past performance should not be a gauge of future results in this case.

 

[Cenobite]

I like Bush,

I'm a fan too In my 3 keeper PPR league I will be selecting R. Bush with the 1st pick. I think the upside is tremendous and the downside is minimal in PPR leagues. I'm predicting that at worst he is a top 25 RB. He has the potential to dominate in PPR leagues ala LT2 and M. Faulk.