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Do you spend more time trying to find... (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter LHUCKS
- Start date
Domination
Footballguy
To me it seem smuch easier to find the probable busts. So I try to spend about the same on each, but probably more towards sleepers.
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
I spend most my time evaluating risk (bust potential). Because of the internet sleepers no longer are "sleepers" (a sleeper written down on everyones list is not a sleeper). I do spend time looking for value picks within a draft......ADP rankings.
PAC 10 RAISE UP!!!!!!!
PAC 10 RAISE UP!!!!!!!
fridayfrenzy
Footballguy
All about value...not necessarily searching for busts/sleepers.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
I know finding sleepers is a lot more valuable.
KnowledgeReignsSupreme
Footballguy
This is a very interesting question. I'd say I spend more time on busts for the top 60 and more time on sleepers for anyone after that.
Overall, equal.
Overall, equal.
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
Busts. By far.
You waste a 2nd round pick on Kevan Barlow, you're not recovering easily--even if you get 5 or 6 round value out of your 11th round pick.
You waste a 2nd round pick on Kevan Barlow, you're not recovering easily--even if you get 5 or 6 round value out of your 11th round pick.
The Ref
Footballguy
It only takes a moment of the devils wrath to unravel a years worth of Gods blessings.
Bust factor is large for me . Players who I feel are an injury risk or who have projections so high they can only try and reach them with the best of efforts are the players I try and find first so I can avoid them.
Bust factor is large for me . Players who I feel are an injury risk or who have projections so high they can only try and reach them with the best of efforts are the players I try and find first so I can avoid them.
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
That said, I actively spend more time, while watching the ticket, and pre-season games looking for guys low on their depth charts that I like. I've had good success with this when I see enough of a player to warrant me considering them a sleeper.As for busts, they just seem to come to me with common sense, and simple reasoning. Willis McGahee last year, is a great example.
nightshift
Footballguy
Busts don't pay off, sleepers do.
next question, please.
next question, please.
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
Ah, so you'd be fine with drafting 4 busts in 4 rounds, then picking up 7th round talent in the 15th round later on?Cool.Busts don't pay off, sleepers do.
next question, please.
nygiants56
Footballguy
Crimedogg32
Footballguy
Sleepers but maybe after last years draft of KJ, Dillon, A. Johnson, M. Clayton, R. Williams I should look more into busts...
Gandalf
Footballguy
I spend more time evaluating sleepers, but avoiding busts is probably more important. That's because a sleeper is a guy you'll be taking late anyway, so the risk if you're wrong is low. On the other hand, a bust could be a first rounder. I know an owner who took Kevin Jones late in the first round last year. Suffice it to say, this owner is scarred for life.
Don't the two have to go hand-in-hand? If I think someone is undervalued (i.e. a "sleeper") and I'm going to move him up 10 spots in my rankings, then that move up has to come at the expense of some other player(s) that I feel are overvalued ("busts") and have to be bumped down. Obviously, the gain in one players value can either be offset by distributing the loss in value among several players (10 guys each get bumped down 1 ranking position), or by just moving one player down 10 spots (simply switch the ranking spots of the two players - one moves up 10, the other down 10.) but it's still a zero net sum.
Goat Herders
Footballguy
Your question of "time" is interesting. I think Sleepers take very little time at all. A knowledge of my expectations compared to the ADP (for the most part; other factors matter of course) makes it quick to find sleepers. Similarly, since they are usually later in the draft, and I don't want to waste picks, I don't have nearly as much invested in my sleepers - finding one 1 out of 4 (as us mere mortals aim for) or 4 out of 4 (sharks only need apply) provides results and satisfaction.
Identifying busts is a bit more bothersome because being correct on a bust can save your season, but misidentifying one can put you in a hole from which no sleeper can pull you out.
Colin
Identifying busts is a bit more bothersome because being correct on a bust can save your season, but misidentifying one can put you in a hole from which no sleeper can pull you out.
Colin
Sleepers for sure. As far as busts, I USUALLY avoid guys without a track record of success, however Andre Johnson burned me bad last year. Reading this, perhaps I should give more time to trying to figure out who will bust.
ETA:
Someone made a good point about sleepers. Usually, by draft time, they're on everyones sleeper list, and everyone wants to look like the smart owner, and some slepers go way before they should.
ETA:
Someone made a good point about sleepers. Usually, by draft time, they're on everyones sleeper list, and everyone wants to look like the smart owner, and some slepers go way before they should.
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