Dolphins Glad To Have Ricky Back (1 Viewer)

[ooofffaaa]

Ricky Williams had one, I repeat, ONE season (2002) in which he was a reliable fantasy option.  In every other season he has been a plodding, inconsistent, headache.  Take it from a guy who has owned him all those years and experienced the headache first hand.

Combine that with the events of the past year and he is not a guy I will ever want to rely on.

1300 and 10 TD's and 1200 and 7 are not shabby numbers, maybe not RB1 numbers but starting numbers in most 12 man or better leagues.

Precisely. And where are you if your RB2 produdes like an RB2 and your RB1 produces like an RB2?Not in the championship game.

Good luck with him. You obviously own him. I wish you the best.

Otis - I want off the Ronnie Brown bandwagon NOW. It's obvious your past experience with Ricky has tainted your view. You driving the Ronnie Brown train isn't helping either.Ricky Williams in 2002 CANNOT be described as a "servicable back" as you said. You are WAY off brother.

In 2002 Ricky rushed 383 times for 1853 yards. That's a 4.8 avg. He also had 16 TD's. Throw in the fact that he had 363 yards through the air and that totals STUD. ALL PRO STUD.

There is NOTHING even remotely close to "servicable back" when it comes to Ricky.

I'm not even going to get into Dumstadt and the average Oline they had back then.

 

[el-gato-grande]

And?

Your posts just ooooooze with Ronnie Brown love. It's makes me want to :X to be honest.

No, I just hate people that post news that anyone who has access to the internet can easily obtain without any kind of analysis. Its like - great, we know you can cut and paste from the Miami Herald's sports page. What else do you have to contribute?!#

 

[packersfan]

And?

Your posts just ooooooze with Ronnie Brown love. It's makes me want to :X to be honest.

No, I just hate people that post news that anyone who has access to the internet can easily obtain without any kind of analysis. Its like - great, we know you can cut and paste from the Miami Herald's sports page. What else do you have to contribute?!#

I wasn't aware that it was a requirement on this or any other message board that all news items had to be followed with some form of analysis. I was merely posting a story that I thought would be of interest to the people here. Based on the number of posts in this thread, it's pretty obvious my assumption was correct. I'm certainly no shrinking violet and I certainly offer plenty of opinions about a wide variety of subjects on this board, so if you're interested in my thoughts about Williams and Brown feel free to do a search. I've definitely commented on the subject a few times already.

 

[el-gato-grande]

Noone knows anything about how he will be used given two impresive Ronnie Brown outings, but I suspect however he wil be used will hurt Ronnie Brown's fantasy value.

I would not be surprised to see a very true RBBC situation and possibly some two back formations that swing Brown out to the slot/WR.

Having Ricky back opens up a LOT for the offense, especially in the short game. I believe something very similar to how Caddy/Brown were used in college could emerge - that means neither are particularly reliable for fantasy purposes, but that may work GREAT together for NFL purposes.

Like the RBBC has worked great in Kansas City? I'm sorry, but I disagree. Most good backs like to develop a rhythm and hate being shuffled in and out of a game. The only way this tends to work is if the roles are clearly defined - like one guy being the back on third down and in passing situations. In Cincy, that is how they are using Rudi Johnson and Chris Perry. But, true RBBC usually ends up being a big mess.

 

[el-gato-grande]

And?

Your posts just ooooooze with Ronnie Brown love. It's makes me want to :X to be honest.

No, I just hate people that post news that anyone who has access to the internet can easily obtain without any kind of analysis. Its like - great, we know you can cut and paste from the Miami Herald's sports page. What else do you have to contribute?!#

I wasn't aware that it was a requirement on this or any other message board that all news items had to be followed with some form of analysis. I was merely posting a story that I thought would be of interest to the people here. Based on the number of posts in this thread, it's pretty obvious my assumption was correct. I'm certainly no shrinking violet and I certainly offer plenty of opinions about a wide variety of subjects on this board, so if you're interested in my thoughts about Williams and Brown feel free to do a search. I've definitely commented on the subject a few times already.

It isn't personal packers fan. I was ASKING for your analysis. I was just addressing the other guy who thought I was pimping for Ronnie Brown in my original post.

 

[packersfan]

It isn't personal packers fan. I was ASKING for your analysis. I was just addressing the other guy who thought I was pimping for Ronnie Brown in my original post.

Got it. As far as my analysis, it's a tough situation to really predict right now but I do believe it's going to end up being at worst a RBBC with both guys getting around double-digit carries. As the story I linked to earlier stated, the Dolphins plan to use both in tandem and in such a formation Ricky would be the primary ballcarrier in all probability with Brown being utilized more as a receiver (although Ricky has excelled in that role as well). I do think it's interesting that prior to his suspension Ricky was moved to the top of the depth chart. Was that an indication of how Saban views the situation? We'll see. I think Brown did enough the last two games to keep his starting job but he certainly can't afford another costly mistake like the fumble he had late in the Buffalo game. That will only open the door for Ricky to get a bigger role.

Of the two I think Ricky is the one with the upside. Unless Ricky gets hurt or just stinks (which I don't believe will happen) there's nowhere for Brown to in terms of value but down. Meanwhile, Ricky's all upside right now. At worst he could be a solid RB3 option in flex leagues if he gets double-digit touches per game and at best he could generate RB2 to RB1 production if he either takes the starting job completely or becomes the primary ballcarrier.

My gut call? I think Ricky is starting at some point this season. And I think he'll be good for 10+ carries a game very soon. Granted, I'm biased because I have him on my team but the reason why I have him on my team is because I believe all of that is going to come fruition.

 

[Marc Levin]

Noone knows anything about how he will be used given two impresive Ronnie Brown outings, but I suspect however he wil be used will hurt Ronnie Brown's fantasy value.

I would not be surprised to see a very true RBBC situation and possibly some two back formations that swing Brown out to the slot/WR.

Having Ricky back opens up a LOT for the offense, especially in the short game.  I believe something very similar to how Caddy/Brown were used in college could emerge - that means neither are particularly reliable for fantasy purposes, but that may work GREAT together for NFL purposes.

Like the RBBC has worked great in Kansas City? I'm sorry, but I disagree. Most good backs like to develop a rhythm and hate being shuffled in and out of a game. The only way this tends to work is if the roles are clearly defined - like one guy being the back on third down and in passing situations. In Cincy, that is how they are using Rudi Johnson and Chris Perry. But, true RBBC usually ends up being a big mess.

The Dolphijns, IMO, would not play Brown/Williams the way KC plays LJ/Priest - KC plays a one-back offense and they swap these two players in and out of the game.Miami, IMO, will employ a RB system similar to what Auburn used - and especially swinging Brown out wide and leaving Ricky in the backfield - that is something noone else in the NFL does right now.

RBBC usually doesn't work for FANTASY players, but it can definitely work GREAT as an NFL strategy - think of some of the multiple RB teams of the past - the Browns had 2 1G rushers in the 80s - the Dolphins of the early 70s employed THREE RBs with a lot of effectiveness - the Steelers currently employ a two back approach very well.

You mentioned Cincie - yup., I've got another for you - Denver with Anderson and Bell. It can DEFINTELY work in miami, but it'll suck for fantasy players.

 

[el-gato-grande]

It isn't personal packers fan.  I was ASKING for your analysis.  I was just addressing the other guy who thought I was pimping for Ronnie Brown in my original post.

Got it. As far as my analysis, it's a tough situation to really predict right now but I do believe it's going to end up being at worst a RBBC with both guys getting around double-digit carries. As the story I linked to earlier stated, the Dolphins plan to use both in tandem and in such a formation Ricky would be the primary ballcarrier in all probability with Brown being utilized more as a receiver (although Ricky has excelled in that role as well). I do think it's interesting that prior to his suspension Ricky was moved to the top of the depth chart. Was that an indication of how Saban views the situation? We'll see. I think Brown did enough the last two games to keep his starting job but he certainly can't afford another costly mistake like the fumble he had late in the Buffalo game. That will only open the door for Ricky to get a bigger role.

Of the two I think Ricky is the one with the upside. Unless Ricky gets hurt or just stinks (which I don't believe will happen) there's nowhere for Brown to in terms of value but down. Meanwhile, Ricky's all upside right now. At worst he could be a solid RB3 option in flex leagues if he gets double-digit touches per game and at best he could generate RB2 to RB1 production if he either takes the starting job completely or becomes the primary ballcarrier.

My gut call? I think Ricky is starting at some point this season. And I think he'll be good for 10+ carries a game very soon. Granted, I'm biased because I have him on my team but the reason why I have him on my team is because I believe all of that is going to come fruition.

Well, you make some interesting points.I do think you are biased and that is OK. But most Ricky owners (particularly the ones who say Ricky will take over the starting job entirely) are basing their views on his past performances. That is perfectly valid, but probably not very realistic. Physically he might be the same. I believe he's lost some muscle mass, but I could be wrong on that (he looks smaller to me). Mentally is where the big difference lies. The same thoughts that occupy Edge or LT's brain aren't floating around in Ricky's head. His motivation has changed and it's not a change for the better. I'm not sure how you could expect a guy playing under his circumstance to really be driven to perform at the highest level.

Couple that with the recent performances by Ronnie Brown and its unlikely that Ricky will see a majority of the load. To put the rookies rushing stats into perspective, Brown's 4.3 YPC average is better than all of these backs YTD:

Julius Jones

Rudi Johnson

McGahee

Taylor

Martin

Dillon

Duece

Davis

Jordan

Jackson

Lewis

Holmes

Anderson

Chris Brown

Droughns

Kevin Jones

Barlow

Green

Shipp

I think you could make a very strong argument that Brown is running behind an O-Line that would not be ranked favorably against a majority of these teams and yet he has a higher per carry average. Others are pointing to TDs, but that is a by-product of play calling more than anything. Saban had a 1st and goal on the 1 on Sunday and chose to throw it instead. There is nothing Brown can do about those kind of decisions by the coaching staff.

I think it will be some sort of RBBC TBD. But, owners hanging onto Ricky Williams thinking they will strike gold are going to be dissapointed.

 

[Marc Levin]

owners hanging onto Ricky Williams thinking they will strike gold are going to be dissapointed.

Agreed.I believe Brown is the one to have for fantasy purposes - esp. in PPR leagues - but there is a great chance it would be Ricky closer to the g/l as he has always proven to be effective down there.

 

[Stanley Spadowski]

You keep telling yourself that if it makes you feel good.

I'm gonna go ahead and let you dig your own hole here. I don't tell myself anything to feel good - I just win leagues regardless of my RB talent level.My track record for winning shark leagues - free and for money - is pretty well known.

But, go ahead - pray to the RB altar - be a novice.

"My track record for winning shark leagues - free and for money - is pretty well known." I'm sure all of the ladies are impressed. I love guys that talk like this.

 

[Stanley Spadowski]

owners hanging onto Ricky Williams thinking they will strike gold are going to be dissapointed.

Agreed.I believe Brown is the one to have for fantasy purposes - esp. in PPR leagues - but there is a great chance it would be Ricky closer to the g/l as he has always proven to be effective down there.

I'm going to be the first to post in a couple weeks when Brown is getting 6 carries per game. Then I'll listen to your excuses. It's as simple as this. you don't even need to look at stats. You dont have Rick williams on your yeam to split carries or sit the bench.

 

[Marc Levin]

You dont have Rick williams on your yeam to split carries or sit the bench.

Does it bother you to dispute the players' and the coach's actual words, or are you just used to being wrong?

Dolphins coach Nick Saban used the word ''split'' when referring to the way Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams will be used beginning with Sunday's game at Tampa Bay.

Among the many ways the Dolphins plan to use Brown and Williams on the field at the same time is a spread formation with one of them split out in the slot or a wideout position. The other is then put in the backfield as a single setback.

''You just have to figure that if you have us both on the field at the same time, the defense is going to have to choose what they want to do,'' said Brown, who was the Dolphins' leading receiver Sunday at Buffalo with six catches and has shown he has good hands. ``If you put one of us out there in the slot, you're going to spread the defense out.''

Ricky and Ronnie to split work says SabanRicky plus Ronnie

Two headed monster coming at ya. Almost exactly as I stated above that I suspected they'd be used - both in the backfield with Brown being split out on occasion as a receiver while Ricky stays in as the lone back. This would make Brown more valuable in PPR leagues, Williams more valuable in TD-heavy leagues - pretty much EXACTLY what I said a few posts up.

 

[packersfan]

Well, you make some interesting points.

I do think you are biased and that is OK.  But most Ricky owners (particularly the ones who say Ricky will take over the starting job entirely) are basing their views on his past performances.

To a degree. I'm also basing it on what I've seen from Brown as well as what Saban's actions have been thus far.

That is perfectly valid, but probably not very realistic.  Physically he might be the same.  I believe he's lost some muscle mass, but I could be wrong on that (he looks smaller to me).  Mentally is where the big difference lies.  The same thoughts that occupy Edge or LT's brain aren't floating around in Ricky's head.  His motivation has changed and it's not a change for the better.  I'm not sure how you could expect a guy playing under his circumstance to really be driven to perform at the highest level.

I think that's being extremely over-rated. Ricky has always been a weird guy. The Saints knew about that which is one of the reasons why they shipped him out of town. I honestly don't think Ricky's motivations have changed; what has changed is the increased public awareness of what a goofball he is.

Couple that with the recent performances by Ronnie Brown and its unlikely that Ricky will see a majority of the load.  To put the rookies rushing stats into perspective, Brown's 4.3 YPC average is better than all of these backs YTD:

Julius Jones

Rudi Johnson

McGahee

Taylor

Martin

Dillon

Duece

Davis

Jordan

Jackson

Lewis

Holmes

Anderson

Chris Brown

Droughns

Kevin Jones

Barlow

Green

Shipp

You probably don't want me to talk about how I think YPC is the most over-rated stat when it comes to evaluating RBs, do you? In any event, Brown has looked better the past two games -- although the Bills' run defense is pathetic and only one RB (Dom Davis in Week 1) has failed to gash them. But keep in mind Brown also had a costly fumble late against the Bills. That's the kind of thing that gets a player sat down for awhile if it continues.

I think you could make a very strong argument that Brown is running behind an O-Line that would not be ranked favorably against a majority of these teams and yet he has a higher per carry average.  Others are pointing to TDs, but that is a by-product of play calling more than anything.  Saban had a 1st and goal on the 1 on Sunday and chose to throw it instead.  There is nothing Brown can do about those kind of decisions by the coaching staff.

I think it will be some sort of RBBC TBD.  But, owners hanging onto Ricky Williams thinking they will strike gold are going to be dissapointed.

Perhaps. Perhaps not. I didn't draft Ricky with the expectations that he'd be anything more than a possible RB3 option. Even if he's part of a RBBC situation and getting around 10 carries a game I think he can fill that role in my league. If he does better than that, that's icing on the cake. I do believe he will start at some point this season for what reason I can't speculate, but I think it's going to happen. Saban clearly wants to use him and putting him atop the depth chart prior to his suspension was a pretty strong sign of how he feels about him. I'm not saying Ricky's going to come in and take over as the starter again, but if he does start to run well (and I thought he looked good in the pre-season) and Brown starts to struggle again, a gradual shift could occur. And should that occur, then all of a sudden Ricky's going to start looking pretty darn good.

 

[Marc Levin]

Even if he's part of a RBBC situation and getting around 10 carries a game I think he can fill that role in my league.

If you have a flex spot in your league, I think Ricky can be just as useful/consistent as a WR3 you might plug into a flex spot.As a RB3 in a start-2 league, I have misgivings about having to plug Ricky in as my RB2 for an extended period of time, which is usually what your RB3 in a start-2 league will be responsible to do.That said, I agree with your gut - I tried to have Ricky Williams on as many rosters as possible due to my thought that he'd be the starter at "some point." I ended up with him on only one team. Here's my gut call: he WILL be starting for the Dolphins the week that the Dolphins play New Orleans - and he will be starting for my fantasy team that week - there are only a handful of RBs I would sit for Ricky that week. I would NOT start Ricky against the Bucs - I'd start Brown in a heartbeat. Week 7, I think we see a lot of sharing the ball - especially at home against KC, both players could be a great start. Week 8, it'll be all Ricky v. NO. After that, I see a crapshoot.

 

[packersfan]

If you have a flex spot in your league, I think Ricky can be just as useful/consistent as a WR3 you might plug into a flex spot.

Agreed.

As a RB3 in a start-2 league, I have misgivings about having to plug Ricky in as my RB2 for an extended period of time, which is usually what your RB3 in a start-2 league will be responsible to do.

I'm not in any start-2 RB leagues, but if I were the only way I'd start Ricky would be if he was starting.

That said, I agree with your gut - I tried to have Ricky Williams on as many rosters as possible due to my thought that he'd be the starter at "some point." I ended up with him on only one team.

Here's my gut call: he WILL be starting for the Dolphins the week that the Dolphins play New Orleans - and he will be starting for my fantasy team that week - there are only a handful of RBs I would sit for Ricky that week. I would NOT start Ricky against the Bucs - I'd start Brown in a heartbeat. Week 7, I think we see a lot of sharing the ball - especially at home against KC, both players could be a great start. Week 8, it'll be all Ricky v. NO. After that, I see a crapshoot.

This week is going to be very interesting. I think the game will be close and if that's the case we could see the Dolphins get 25-30 rushing attempts. If that happens, Ricky could get 10-15 touches and if that happens he could generate RB3 production. A few "ifs" there I realize, but I do think the safe assumption is the projection of a close game which favors the running game and favors Ricky's chances to be involved immediately.

 

[wannabee]

Maybe I am in the minority, but I see this situation as a big negative for Gus. The 'fins should turn into a ball control/defense team.

 

[Marc Levin]

  This week is going to be very interesting. I think the game will be close and if that's the case we could see the Dolphins get 25-30 rushing attempts. If that happens, Ricky could get 10-15 touches and if that happens he could generate RB3 production. A few "ifs" there I realize, but I do think the safe assumption is the projection of a close game which favors the running game and favors Ricky's chances to be involved immediately.

You are missing the obvious - three words:Cadillac versus Ronnie.

 

[Marc Levin]

Maybe I am in the minority, but I see this situation as a big negative for Gus. The 'fins should turn into a ball control/defense team.

I'm with you. After 3 picks last week versus Buffalo, Brown's fumble may have been only the second most costly turnover of the game - Frerotte's three picks included one at the Buffalo 10 yard line, whihc was a certain FG/TD.

 

[packersfan]

   This week is going to be very interesting. I think the game will be close and if that's the case we could see the Dolphins get 25-30 rushing attempts. If that happens, Ricky could get 10-15 touches and if that happens he could generate RB3 production. A few "ifs" there I realize, but I do think the safe assumption is the projection of a close game which favors the running game and favors Ricky's chances to be involved immediately.

You are missing the obvious - three words:Cadillac versus Ronnie.

Care to expand upon that? The Dolphins are averaging 25 rushing attempts per game. Should this game remain close it's fair to assume they get at least that many and possibly more. And if they get 25-30 carries, that enhances the chances that Ricky will get more than a handful of carries this week.

Would I start him this week as a RB3? Nope, unless I was in absolutely dire straits at RB. But will I be surprised if he gets 10+ carries and generates RB3 production this week? Not by a longshot.

 

[wannabee]

Maybe I am in the minority, but I see this situation as a big negative for Gus.  The 'fins should turn into a ball control/defense team.

I'm with you. After 3 picks last week versus Buffalo, Brown's fumble may have been only the second most costly turnover of the game - Frerotte's three picks included one at the Buffalo 10 yard line, whihc was a certain FG/TD.

Forgot to add that I'd probably add McMichael and Chambers to my Sell High list. For a few reasons, this one particularly, I cannot see McMichael continue this torrid pace (4 TDs on 16 catches for 160 yds). BTW, the 4 TDs this year ties his career high.

 

[Marc Levin]

   This week is going to be very interesting. I think the game will be close and if that's the case we could see the Dolphins get 25-30 rushing attempts. If that happens, Ricky could get 10-15 touches and if that happens he could generate RB3 production. A few "ifs" there I realize, but I do think the safe assumption is the projection of a close game which favors the running game and favors Ricky's chances to be involved immediately.

You are missing the obvious - three words:Cadillac versus Ronnie.

Care to expand upon that?

I have to expand on: "former Auburn tailback and number two pick Ronnie Brown versus former Auburn tailback and number five pick Cadillac Williams?" Gruden versus Saban to prove who has the better first round RB pick? RB versus RB in a healthy head to head competition? OK - there is a LOT of press (some I cited above) that Williams is not likely in game shape yet and that he has to concentrate on working with the team - so much so that he has been held out of all press conferences so that he can concentrate on making sure he has his assignments correct. I'll be surprised if, in his FIRST game back with the team, Williams has more than 7 or 8 carries.

need more? I thought the Cadillac versus Ronnie comment covered it fully enough.

 

[packersfan]

   This week is going to be very interesting. I think the game will be close and if that's the case we could see the Dolphins get 25-30 rushing attempts. If that happens, Ricky could get 10-15 touches and if that happens he could generate RB3 production. A few "ifs" there I realize, but I do think the safe assumption is the projection of a close game which favors the running game and favors Ricky's chances to be involved immediately.

You are missing the obvious - three words:Cadillac versus Ronnie.

Care to expand upon that?

I have to expand on: "former Auburn tailback and number two pick Ronnie Brown versus former Auburn tailback and number five pick Cadillac Williams?" Gruden versus Saban to prove who has the better first round RB pick? RB versus RB in a healthy head to head competition? OK - there is a LOT of press (some I cited above) that Williams is not likely in game shape yet and that he has to concentrate on working with the team - so much so that he has been held out of all press conferences so that he can concentrate on making sure he has his assignments correct. I'll be surprised if, in his FIRST game back with the team, Williams has more than 7 or 8 carries.

need more? I thought the Cadillac versus Ronnie comment covered it fully enough.

My bad. I thought you were drawing an analogy in terms of the number of carries the two RBs would get. In any event, I still think if the game's close Ricky gets double-digit carries -- if Brown starts struggling again he could get more.

 

[Marc Levin]

if Brown starts struggling again

well, that says it all right?I find it hard to imagine EITHER Cadillac or Ronnie struggling in this game - at least not in a way that switching to Pittman/Williams would be an improvement.

I think BOTH Caddie and Ronnie are going to have HUGE fantasy days.

 

[packersfan]

if Brown starts struggling again

well, that says it all right?I find it hard to imagine EITHER Cadillac or Ronnie struggling in this game - at least not in a way that switching to Pittman/Williams would be an improvement.

I think BOTH Caddie and Ronnie are going to have HUGE fantasy days.

I don't see why it's so difficult to envision Brown struggling. He struggled the first two games of the season, had a costly fumble this past Sunday and is facing a tough run defense. Now add in Ricky's return -- and it's probably a guarantee Ricky has some kind of a role on Sunday - and I don't think the stars are really aligned for him.

 

[Marc Levin]

if Brown starts struggling again

well, that says it all right?I find it hard to imagine EITHER Cadillac or Ronnie struggling in this game - at least not in a way that switching to Pittman/Williams would be an improvement.

I think BOTH Caddie and Ronnie are going to have HUGE fantasy days.

I don't see why it's so difficult to envision Brown struggling. He struggled the first two games of the season, had a costly fumble this past Sunday and is facing a tough run defense. Now add in Ricky's return -- and it's probably a guarantee Ricky has some kind of a role on Sunday - and I don't think the stars are really aligned for him.

I find it nearly impossible that "in the flow" coming off two 100 yard games, Ronnie Brown is going to struggle and that adding no-games Ricky will be the key to improving the running game.Ronnie didn't struggle in games one and two - the OL sucked balls and he was constantly tackled behind the LOS.

 

[packersfan]

We'll see, Marc.

 

[Marc Levin]

We'll see, Marc.

Yes we will, but do you see MY point? If Brown gets shut down by TB, that means the Miami run game in general is getting shut down by the TB D. What makes you think running RICKY is the answer to that problem?

 

[Otis]

My analyis was complete the minute I saw Benson crying.

I can tell you are a deep thinker and, by the posts in this thread, I can tell you are really forgiving when someone does something you find unusual.

Good point. Because unusual behavior in a Texas RB has never proven to be a good indicator of flakiness in the past.

 

[Marc Levin]

My analyis was complete the minute I saw Benson crying.

I can tell you are a deep thinker and, by the posts in this thread, I can tell you are really forgiving when someone does something you find unusual.

Good point. Because unusual behavior in a Texas RB has never proven to be a good indicator of flakiness in the past.

All the good info in this thread and this is the post you chose to respond to - and with THAT response to a statemenmt you made about Cedrick Benson - Otis, honestly, how does Benson crying reflect how he will perform as a pro?

Eli Manning was total butthead at the draft, and he's becoming a very good pro football player - Clinton Portis was practically in tears when he dropped out of the first round, and he was a pretty good pro. Not sure what your deal is with Benson crying.

 

[shakeybarn]

Ronnie didn't struggle in games one and two - the OL sucked balls and he was constantly tackled behind the LOS.

Odd, seems to always happen to two other rookies... JJ Arrington and Cedric Benson, yet the veterans don't seem to have that problem.Odd...

 

[packersfan]

We'll see, Marc.

Yes we will, but do you see MY point? If Brown gets shut down by TB, that means the Miami run game in general is getting shut down by the TB D. What makes you think running RICKY is the answer to that problem?

Well I happen to think Ricky is a more talented RB. That's another reason why I targeted him.

 

[Marc Levin]

Ronnie didn't struggle in games one and two - the OL sucked balls and he was constantly tackled behind the LOS.

Odd, seems to always happen to two other rookies... JJ Arrington and Cedric Benson, yet the veterans don't seem to have that problem.Odd...

??Confused by the point here. In one situation, the veteram has been playing GREAT (TJones), but the rookie didn't start at RB at te beginning of the year - he held out until just before game one. Arrington struggled, but Shipp has not been able to do well behind that line either. Brown seems to have worked through his first couple of games and is playing very well - and the OL seems to actually have picked up steam as well.

 

[Marc Levin]

We'll see, Marc.

Yes we will, but do you see MY point? If Brown gets shut down by TB, that means the Miami run game in general is getting shut down by the TB D. What makes you think running RICKY is the answer to that problem?

Well I happen to think Ricky is a more talented RB. That's another reason why I targeted him.

Gotcha - I can't say one is more or less "talented" than the other, but Ricky is certainly a more proven NFL commodity and he looked great in a couple of the preseason games.

 

[shakeybarn]

Ronnie didn't struggle in games one and two - the OL sucked balls and he was constantly tackled behind the LOS.

Odd, seems to always happen to two other rookies... JJ Arrington and Cedric Benson, yet the veterans don't seem to have that problem.Odd...

??Confused by the point here. In one situation, the veteram has been playing GREAT (TJones), but the rookie didn't start at RB at te beginning of the year - he held out until just before game one. Arrington struggled, but Shipp has not been able to do well behind that line either. Brown seems to have worked through his first couple of games and is playing very well - and the OL seems to actually have picked up steam as well.

>>Arrington struggled, but Shipp has not been able to do well behind that line either.Actually Shipp has posted just "good" numbers across all downs. Catches the ball.

 

[BlueOnion]

I believe Brown is the one to have for fantasy purposes - esp. in PPR leagues - but there is a great chance it would be Ricky closer to the g/l as he has always proven to be effective down there.

Are you talking about the Ricky Williams with very small hands? I recall him having trouble hanging on to the ball at the goal line and often times fumbling in short yardage situations.

 

[ooofffaaa]

I believe Brown is the one to have for fantasy purposes - esp. in PPR leagues - but there is a great chance it would be Ricky closer to the g/l as he has always proven to be effective down there.

Are you talking about the Ricky Williams with very small hands? I recall him having trouble hanging on to the ball at the goal line and often times fumbling in short yardage situations.

And for the 17th straight day BlueOnion fills his daily BASH Ricky Williams quota.

 

[BlueOnion]

I believe Brown is the one to have for fantasy purposes - esp. in PPR leagues - but there is a great chance it would be Ricky closer to the g/l as he has always proven to be effective down there.

Are you talking about the Ricky Williams with very small hands? I recall him having trouble hanging on to the ball at the goal line and often times fumbling in short yardage situations.

And for the 17th straight day BlueOnion fills his daily BASH Ricky Williams quota.

Where am I bashing him? I merely asked a question to clarify what I thought I heard people say in the past.

 

[ooofffaaa]

I must admit this small hands comment cracks me up.The ONLY time I've ever been concerned about small hands was when I was looking for a proctologist.Mr Expert on Ricky Williams BlueOnion . . . .In 2002 he had 383 carries and fumbled 5 times.In 2003 he had 392 carries and fumbled 5 times.PLEASE tell me how that is a fumbling problem ???

 

[BlueOnion]

PLEASE tell me how that is a fumbling problem ???

I never said he had a fumbling problem, I just asked the question how prevalent were the reports of Ricky Williams having small hands prior to his retirement. Edited - As a huge fan of the Vikings and Culpepper, I am well aware of the importance of small hands. Culpepper (aka, 'nubbs') has very small hands and his fumbling is a known issue.

 

[Stanley Spadowski]

Even if he's part of a RBBC situation and getting around 10 carries a game I think he can fill that role in my league.

If you have a flex spot in your league, I think Ricky can be just as useful/consistent as a WR3 you might plug into a flex spot.As a RB3 in a start-2 league, I have misgivings about having to plug Ricky in as my RB2 for an extended period of time, which is usually what your RB3 in a start-2 league will be responsible to do.

That said, I agree with your gut - I tried to have Ricky Williams on as many rosters as possible due to my thought that he'd be the starter at "some point." I ended up with him on only one team.

Here's my gut call: he WILL be starting for the Dolphins the week that the Dolphins play New Orleans - and he will be starting for my fantasy team that week - there are only a handful of RBs I would sit for Ricky that week. I would NOT start Ricky against the Bucs - I'd start Brown in a heartbeat. Week 7, I think we see a lot of sharing the ball - especially at home against KC, both players could be a great start. Week 8, it'll be all Ricky v. NO. After that, I see a crapshoot.

Agreed, I plan on using him in the Flex position. I would rather Start him as a Flex RB3 over a Flex WR4

 

[Mordraken]

PLEASE tell me how that is a fumbling problem ???

I never said he had a fumbling problem, I just asked the question how prevalent were the reports of Ricky Williams having small hands prior to his retirement. Edited - As a huge fan of the Vikings and Culpepper, I am well aware of the importance of small hands. Culpepper (aka, 'nubbs') has very small hands and his fumbling is a known issue.

Yeah - I also remember hearing that Ricky had small hands, and was EXPECTED to have a fumbling problem, but he never actually had one.Here's my 2 cents on this, and it reflects a lot of what was said. (Disclaimer - I am a Brown owner, and a Williams hater for walking out on the team last year).

#1 - I expect BOTH backs to be used with Ricky in the traditional halfback role, and Brown to be used as a FB/H-back role. In that role, Miami could come out with Brown lined up as a TE and snap; line him up as a TE and shift him into a FB position playing play action or run; line him up as a FB and shift him out to a receiver position, short hand-off to the FB and so on. The presence of both Brown & Williams in the backfield AT THE SAME TIME would really create mis-matches on defense. Note that this would move Brown out of a traditoinal 20 carry game and put him more in line with 5-10 rushes but also 10 receiving targets. It would also mean Williams would be in the backfield more to block as opposed to running routs.

This makes sense to me especially because Brown is well known as a good blocker (best rookie blocker in this year's class iirr) and is reputed to have excellent hands.

#2 - Brown has been solid in his first 4 weeks. Not the first 2 really, but the last 2 he has been solid. Projecting his season out so far, he is on pace for about 300 carries for 1300 yards plus 44 receptions for 170 yards. Touchdowns will PROBABLY come. Compare that to Williams 2 years ago who got about 100 yards more on 25% more carries and had about the same number of receptions for about double the yards. I don't think the OL is that differnet this year from 2003.

Why is Brown not scoring TDs? Well, one thing is that Saban knows his team is weak, so is relying on "trickery" (like passing on 1st and goal from the 1) to win games. In Ricky's time with the Dolphins with Wandstat as coach, they would have run AT LEAST 3 times. I think Miami's been in a couple of those situations so far this year, so that's (potentially) a couple of TDs that Brown could have got. That would make the numbers for Brown and Williams very similar.

#3 - Williams may have been training, but he hasn't been in live NFL action for quite a while. I'd expect his role to start smaller (like maybe 5-10 carries vs. Tampa) and expanding by about 5 carries a week up to around 15-20 in 3 weeks. This is as he gets out of "in shape" and into "game shape", getting up to speed with the pro game again. Yes, players that get injured and take a year to come back often end up doing fine, but Williams has been out of football and NOT training or playing for a year... it will probably take him at least as long. I'd also go as far as to say that he's probably got a higher chance of becoming injured because of it.

But the bottom line for all of this - I do not think the return of williams will do anything but (a) lower Ronnie Brown's fantasy value and (b) increase Williams' fantasy value. My guess - Brown will average 60 yards and 0.3 TDs while Williams will average 70 yards and 0.4 TDs (yards & TDs are both rushing & receiving). Browns yards will come as much from the air as the ground while Williams' will be 80% ground.

One more thing (I forgot) - Fumbles will kill players value as long as the Dolphins are competitve (chasing the playoffs). IMO one fumble = 20% less carries the next game

 

[Otis]

The ONLY time I've ever been concerned about small hands was when I was looking for a proctologist.

Small hands concern you in this instance?

 

[Otis]

My analyis was complete the minute I saw Benson crying.

I can tell you are a deep thinker and, by the posts in this thread, I can tell you are really forgiving when someone does something you find unusual.

Good point. Because unusual behavior in a Texas RB has never proven to be a good indicator of flakiness in the past.

All the good info in this thread and this is the post you chose to respond to - and with THAT response to a statemenmt you made about Cedrick Benson - Otis, honestly, how does Benson crying reflect how he will perform as a pro?

Eli Manning was total butthead at the draft, and he's becoming a very good pro football player - Clinton Portis was practically in tears when he dropped out of the first round, and he was a pretty good pro. Not sure what your deal is with Benson crying.

Call me crazy, but that kid had me nervous since draft day.My favorite part about it is how upset he was all week that people were compariing him to Ricky, yet he shows up on draft day and acts like a ####### weirdo.



Did you actually hear the interview after he was selected? The guy was speaking in tongues I swear, it was impossible to understand a thing he was talking about.

He will, without any doubt in my mind, end up being the least productive of the "big 3" from this year's draft class. Call it a hunch.

 

[Wheelhouse]

Ricky week 6 - what'dya think? Projections?

 

[packersfan]

Ricky week 6 - what'dya think? Projections?

Worst-case scenario: 10-35-0Best-case scenario: 15-75-1

My projection: 13-55-0

 

[Otis]

Ricky week 6 - what'dya think? Projections?

I think it's impossible to say, and anyone who takes a stab at numbers is doing precisely that - taking a stab. There are too many variables here to gauge how Ricky will be used this week, if at all.My two cents.

Edit to add: The one thing I do believe is that if you have to start one of the two, Ronnie Brown is the guy you want to start.

 

[ooofffaaa]

PLEASE tell me how that is a fumbling problem ???

I never said he had a fumbling problem, I just asked the question how prevalent were the reports of Ricky Williams having small hands prior to his retirement. Edited - As a huge fan of the Vikings and Culpepper, I am well aware of the importance of small hands. Culpepper (aka, 'nubbs') has very small hands and his fumbling is a known issue.

Yeah - I also remember hearing that Ricky had small hands, and was EXPECTED to have a fumbling problem, but he never actually had one.Here's my 2 cents on this, and it reflects a lot of what was said. (Disclaimer - I am a Brown owner, and a Williams hater for walking out on the team last year).

#1 - I expect BOTH backs to be used with Ricky in the traditional halfback role, and Brown to be used as a FB/H-back role. In that role, Miami could come out with Brown lined up as a TE and snap; line him up as a TE and shift him into a FB position playing play action or run; line him up as a FB and shift him out to a receiver position, short hand-off to the FB and so on. The presence of both Brown & Williams in the backfield AT THE SAME TIME would really create mis-matches on defense. Note that this would move Brown out of a traditoinal 20 carry game and put him more in line with 5-10 rushes but also 10 receiving targets. It would also mean Williams would be in the backfield more to block as opposed to running routs.

This makes sense to me especially because Brown is well known as a good blocker (best rookie blocker in this year's class iirr) and is reputed to have excellent hands.

#2 - Brown has been solid in his first 4 weeks. Not the first 2 really, but the last 2 he has been solid. Projecting his season out so far, he is on pace for about 300 carries for 1300 yards plus 44 receptions for 170 yards. Touchdowns will PROBABLY come. Compare that to Williams 2 years ago who got about 100 yards more on 25% more carries and had about the same number of receptions for about double the yards. I don't think the OL is that differnet this year from 2003.

Why is Brown not scoring TDs? Well, one thing is that Saban knows his team is weak, so is relying on "trickery" (like passing on 1st and goal from the 1) to win games. In Ricky's time with the Dolphins with Wandstat as coach, they would have run AT LEAST 3 times. I think Miami's been in a couple of those situations so far this year, so that's (potentially) a couple of TDs that Brown could have got. That would make the numbers for Brown and Williams very similar.

#3 - Williams may have been training, but he hasn't been in live NFL action for quite a while. I'd expect his role to start smaller (like maybe 5-10 carries vs. Tampa) and expanding by about 5 carries a week up to around 15-20 in 3 weeks. This is as he gets out of "in shape" and into "game shape", getting up to speed with the pro game again. Yes, players that get injured and take a year to come back often end up doing fine, but Williams has been out of football and NOT training or playing for a year... it will probably take him at least as long. I'd also go as far as to say that he's probably got a higher chance of becoming injured because of it.

But the bottom line for all of this - I do not think the return of williams will do anything but (a) lower Ronnie Brown's fantasy value and (b) increase Williams' fantasy value. My guess - Brown will average 60 yards and 0.3 TDs while Williams will average 70 yards and 0.4 TDs (yards & TDs are both rushing & receiving). Browns yards will come as much from the air as the ground while Williams' will be 80% ground.

One more thing (I forgot) - Fumbles will kill players value as long as the Dolphins are competitve (chasing the playoffs). IMO one fumble = 20% less carries the next game

Excellant analysis Mordraken and I agree with you 100%.Reports from practice today are saying Ricky looks like he gained weight again. The only thing I might disagree with you on is his conditioning. I think he'll be back in football shape quicker than you expect and I see him getting closer to 10 carries this week as opposed to 5.

 

[ooofffaaa]

The ONLY time I've ever been concerned about small hands was when I was looking for a proctologist.

Small hands concern you in this instance?

When you get old enough and you need to find one trust me when I say you'd rather find a small petite woman with small hands as opposed to some dude with large mitts.BTW Otis is the Ronnie Brown bandwagon still full or did you lose a couple people this week?

 

[ooofffaaa]

Ricky week 6 - what'dya think? Projections?

10-50-1

 

[j3r3m3y]

Ricky week 6 - what'dya think? Projections?

10-50-1

Agreed.