Don't draft a RB until the 5th round (1 Viewer)

[LOCO]

This strategy requires that you wait until the 5th round to draft a RB. It allows you to load up on other key positions. With so many RBBC, it makes sense to wait; especially after reading that 67% of the top 24 rbs this year, will not be in the top 24 next year.

I know it sounds nuts, but if you have a draft slot outside the top 6 it might make some sense.

Here is a mock, i just completed, i picked 10th.

1.10 - Calvin Johnson

2.03 - Larry Fitzgerald

3.10 - Anquan Boldin

4.03 - Matt Schaub

5.10 - Ahmad Bradshaw

6.03 - Marion Barber

7.10 - Reggie Bush

8.03 - Michael Bush

9.10 - Zach Miller

10.03 - Mike Williams TB

11.10 - Vince Young

12.03 - Devin Hester

13.10 - Bernard Scott

14.03 - Chicago DEF

15.10 - Adam Vinatieri

I think this is a solid team

 

[big0mar]

good luck with that team

 

[Mystery Achiever]

Related thread:

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=543746

 

[Garts]

This strategy requires that you wait until the 5th round to draft a RB. It allows you to load up on other key positions. With so many RBBC, it makes sense to wait; especially after reading that 67% of the top 24 rbs this year, will not be in the top 24 next year. I know it sounds nuts, but if you have a draft slot outside the top 6 it might make some sense.Here is a mock, i just completed, i picked 10th.1.10 - Calvin Johnson2.03 - Larry Fitzgerald3.10 - Anquan Boldin4.03 - Matt Schaub5.10 - Ahmad Bradshaw6.03 - Marion Barber7.10 - Reggie Bush8.03 - Michael Bush9.10 - Zach Miller10.03 - Mike Williams TB11.10 - Vince Young12.03 - Devin Hester13.10 - Bernard Scott14.03 - Chicago DEF15.10 - Adam VinatieriI think this is a solid team

no better kickers?

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

WR is way deeper than RB in the mid-rounds though, esp. since Best isn't lasting in drafts anymore. Last week I was able to start with S. Jackson, then Moss/Colston/Ocho, then back to RBs. Ballin' out of control.

 

[Old Redskin]

I would suggest that this type of strategy only works if you have one of the last 3 picks of the first round, and there is a run on RBs. Picking from the number 11 spot this year, you can see my team in my sig. Not a single worry on the WR side, but I've got a world of headaches on the RB side! I've employed this strategy for several years now, but end up spending all of my time chasing down the latest injury back-up! It's worked for me, but requires a ton more work and dedication, along with a fair degree of luck, to pull off a league championship!

As the staff at FBGs will tell you, take the best player available and don't be blinded by "I have to draft RB-RB-WR (or whatever your draft strategy may be)." It's proven to be sound advice for me!

 

[Arnold. S]

Drafted from the 7th spot in a 12 team league last night, 0.5 PPR league:

Jay Cutler

Alex Smith

Knownshon Moreno

Jonathan Stewart

Arian Foster

Brandon Jacobs

Darren McFadden

Donald Brown

Kareem Huggins

Javon Ringer

Rashad Jennings

Andre Johnson

Calvin Johnson

Larry Fitzgerald

Mohamed Massaquaoi

Jabar Gaffney

Mike Williams (TB)

Chris Cooley

Nick Folk

NE Pats

 

[Warhogs]

I'm not so sure this is a crazy strategy if you can't land a stud RB. Here is where the Rb went in a draft we did a couple weeks ago.

Round 5

Joseph Addai

Beanie Wells

LeShon McCoy

Marion Barber

Clinton Portis

Round 6

Ronnie Brown

Matt Forte

Jahvid Best

Round 7

Jonathan Stewart

Ricky Williams

Jerome Harrison

Felix Jones

Reggie Bush

Ahmad Bradshaw

My feeling was that WR really dropped off after about the top 10-12 and then there was a large group of similar WR. Getting two top 10 WR and waiting on RB could work well if you are drafting in the bottom half of round 1.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I'm not so sure this is a crazy strategy if you can't land a stud RB. Here is where the Rb went in a draft we did a couple weeks ago.Round 5Joseph AddaiBeanie WellsLeShon McCoyMarion BarberClinton PortisRound 6Ronnie BrownMatt ForteJahvid BestRound 7Jonathan StewartRicky WilliamsJerome HarrisonFelix JonesReggie BushAhmad BradshawMy feeling was that WR really dropped off after about the top 10-12 and then there was a large group of similar WR. Getting two top 10 WR and waiting on RB could work well if you are drafting in the bottom half of round 1.

What size league is that? About half that list doesn't sniff the 5th round, much less the 7th, in most of the 12 teamers I've drafted in this offseason.

 

[Wild Young Billy]

Drafted from the 7th spot in a 12 team league last night, 0.5 PPR league:Jay CutlerAlex SmithKnownshon MorenoJonathan StewartArian FosterBrandon JacobsDarren McFaddenDonald BrownKareem HugginsJavon RingerRashad JenningsAndre JohnsonCalvin JohnsonLarry FitzgeraldMohamed MassaquaoiJabar GaffneyMike Williams (TB)Chris CooleyNick FolkNE Pats

Did you get Fitz that late? 3.7?

 

[aimlessgun]

That strategy depends HEAVILY on the starting requirements of the league.

If you're in a 3WR 2RB league, it can work out, and in fact, last year it should have been a slam dunk for the average drafter.

But if you're in a 2WR 2 RB 1 FLEX league? Your value over replacement player just dropped from being the difference to the 30th guy to the 20th WR: easily loss of an entire point per game or more. Plus you have WRs competing straight up with RBs at the flex, and a Tier3 RB will easily outscore a Tier3 WR.

 

[VaTerp]

This strategy requires that you wait until the 5th round to draft a RB. It allows you to load up on other key positions. With so many RBBC, it makes sense to wait; especially after reading that 67% of the top 24 rbs this year, will not be in the top 24 next year. I know it sounds nuts, but if you have a draft slot outside the top 6 it might make some sense.Here is a mock, i just completed, i picked 10th. 1.10 - Calvin Johnson2.03 - Larry Fitzgerald3.10 - Anquan Boldin4.03 - Matt Schaub5.10 - Ahmad Bradshaw6.03 - Marion Barber7.10 - Reggie Bush8.03 - Michael Bush9.10 - Zach Miller10.03 - Mike Williams TB11.10 - Vince Young12.03 - Devin Hester13.10 - Bernard Scott14.03 - Chicago DEF15.10 - Adam VinatieriI think this is a solid team

good luck with that team

I actually like that team though I would probably take other WRs before Calvin and Fitz. In my league there is now way that Bradshaw, Barber, or Bush fall that far though. Its PPR but has a flex and some other scoring that favors RBs. If you're confident you can get those RBs at those spots, I say go for it.

 

[Jayrod]

That strategy depends HEAVILY on the starting requirements of the league.

If you're in a 3WR 2RB league, it can work out, and in fact, last year it should have been a slam dunk for the average drafter.

But if you're in a 2WR 2 RB 1 FLEX league? Your value over replacement player just dropped from being the difference to the 30th guy to the 20th WR: easily loss of an entire point per game or more. Plus you have WRs competing straight up with RBs at the flex, and a Tier3 RB will easily outscore a Tier3 WR.

In PPR it does still lean slightly to the RB, but WR is very close...about 10 FP's difference between RB25 & WR25.

 

[LOCO]

with so much turnover, year in and year out, it seems like if you want to draft a top 24 RB, then don't draft a top 24 rb. Draft upside guys you can see breaking through to the top 24 and top 12. grab enough of them and you will be alright.

 

[Exit 1]

This strategy requires that you wait until the 5th round to draft a RB. It allows you to load up on other key positions. With so many RBBC, it makes sense to wait; especially after reading that 67% of the top 24 rbs this year, will not be in the top 24 next year. I know it sounds nuts, but if you have a draft slot outside the top 6 it might make some sense.Here is a mock, i just completed, i picked 10th. 1.10 - Calvin Johnson2.03 - Larry Fitzgerald3.10 - Anquan Boldin4.03 - Matt Schaub5.10 - Ahmad Bradshaw6.03 - Marion Barber7.10 - Reggie Bush8.03 - Michael Bush9.10 - Zach Miller10.03 - Mike Williams TB11.10 - Vince Young12.03 - Devin Hester13.10 - Bernard Scott14.03 - Chicago DEF15.10 - Adam VinatieriI think this is a solid team

Sorry, I don't like that team at all. I really think you're going to be hurting at RB having to start Barber, Bush, or Bush. Bradshaw should be okay, but I think your team would be so much better if you took Rodgers where you took Charles Johnson, took a different wide out instead of Fitz, and then took another RB where you took Schaub. Your team isn't balanced enough and you are leaving your team too open to have a big boom or BUST season. Good thing this is just a mock, imo.

 

[Vicktimized]

Waldman basically endorses this strategy with a lot of the same runners.

 

[Warhogs]

I'm not so sure this is a crazy strategy if you can't land a stud RB. Here is where the Rb went in a draft we did a couple weeks ago.Round 5Joseph AddaiBeanie WellsLeShon McCoyMarion BarberClinton PortisRound 6Ronnie BrownMatt ForteJahvid BestRound 7Jonathan StewartRicky WilliamsJerome HarrisonFelix JonesReggie BushAhmad BradshawMy feeling was that WR really dropped off after about the top 10-12 and then there was a large group of similar WR. Getting two top 10 WR and waiting on RB could work well if you are drafting in the bottom half of round 1.

What size league is that? About half that list doesn't sniff the 5th round, much less the 7th, in most of the 12 teamers I've drafted in this offseason.

It is a 12 team league with a start 1QB-2RB-3WR format. No flex. Limited trading with this group of guys.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Drafted from the 7th spot in a 12 team league last night, 0.5 PPR league:Jay CutlerAlex SmithKnownshon MorenoJonathan StewartArian FosterBrandon JacobsDarren McFaddenDonald BrownKareem HugginsJavon RingerRashad JenningsAndre JohnsonCalvin JohnsonLarry FitzgeraldMohamed MassaquaoiJabar GaffneyMike Williams (TB)Chris CooleyNick FolkNE Pats

this si quite similar to a lot of my mock teams... nice job.

 

[Zackattack]

I agree for the most part. I have the 8th and 10th picks in upcoming drafts. I am looking at going WR/WR but I will take a Charles, Grant or say P.T if they fall to me in the third round. I like the QB in the 4rth if Schaub, Brady or Romo fall there.

You can wind up with this

Moss

White, Marshall, Austin

P.T., or Romo, Charles or maybe Grant.

Schaub, Brady, Romo or a solid RB or WR.

Rounds 5 and 6 you can grab

A.Foster (I love him this year)

Bradshaw, Spiller or R.Bush

 

[chihawk]

I would suggest that this type of strategy only works if you have one of the last 3 picks of the first round, and there is a run on RBs. Picking from the number 11 spot this year, you can see my team in my sig. Not a single worry on the WR side, but I've got a world of headaches on the RB side! I've employed this strategy for several years now, but end up spending all of my time chasing down the latest injury back-up! It's worked for me, but requires a ton more work and dedication, along with a fair degree of luck, to pull off a league championship!As the staff at FBGs will tell you, take the best player available and don't be blinded by "I have to draft RB-RB-WR (or whatever your draft strategy may be)." It's proven to be sound advice for me!

So based on your roster in the sig it looks like you drafted Moss, Austin, and P Thomas in the first three rounds. Who did you draft in the 4th? TO? I would have though you would have been able to get a pretty good RB2 early in the 4th round that would have helped with your concern about your RBs.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

This strategy requires that you wait until the 5th round to draft a RB. It allows you to load up on other key positions. With so many RBBC, it makes sense to wait; especially after reading that 67% of the top 24 rbs this year, will not be in the top 24 next year. I know it sounds nuts, but if you have a draft slot outside the top 6 it might make some sense.Here is a mock, i just completed, i picked 10th. 1.10 - Calvin Johnson2.03 - Larry Fitzgerald3.10 - Anquan Boldin4.03 - Matt Schaub5.10 - Ahmad Bradshaw6.03 - Marion Barber7.10 - Reggie Bush8.03 - Michael Bush9.10 - Zach Miller10.03 - Mike Williams TB11.10 - Vince Young12.03 - Devin Hester13.10 - Bernard Scott14.03 - Chicago DEF15.10 - Adam VinatieriI think this is a solid team

Sorry, I don't like that team at all. I really think you're going to be hurting at RB having to start Barber, Bush, or Bush. Bradshaw should be okay, but I think your team would be so much better if you took Rodgers where you took Charles Johnson, took a different wide out instead of Fitz, and then took another RB where you took Schaub. Your team isn't balanced enough and you are leaving your team too open to have a big boom or BUST season. Good thing this is just a mock, imo.

I disagree. I wouldn't be surprised if two of the 4 B's will "B" in the top 12 at years end.

 

[Happy Ragnarok]

I'm a huge fan of Reggie Bush and Bradshaw this year.

And I still hate your team. Mostly because I don't think you chose stud WR's very well.

 

[jude]

how do you know it works?

 

[SCT]

It's not a bad idea at all just because if you can't get one of the first 7 rbs (through SJax/Gore/Turner), then you're looking at RBBC and the WRs drop off drastically in round 3.

I think you can make an argument for serious value for guys like Best in the 4th, Bradshaw, Portis, and even LT if you buy what some are selling on here (I do).

 

[big0mar]

I'm not opposed to taking WRs early and holding off an RBs. But if you're taking WRs early, you need to get guys with less risk than Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson. If I'm not getting Andre Johnson or Randy Moss, I'm probably going RB.

 

[rocketsauce]

I'm planning on doing the same thing in my Draft Saturday from the 7 spot in my 12 team PPR (star 2 RB, 3 WR, No Flex). I just can't pull the trigger on Jackson or Turner, and don't care enough about the top 3 QBs (v next 4 QBs) to take a QB.

If I was drafting now, I'm taking Miles Austin at 7. I then pick at 2.2 due to some trading, and pick again at 3.11. I hope to start out with Austin, Calvin, and Romo. We'll see how it goes, but I have no problem putting together a similiar list of RBs as the original post suggests.

WR dries up SO fast this year after the tier 1/2 guys, especially with both Jackson and Rice dropping out of it, that I feel you get such an advantage over the rest of your league if you end up with 2 top tier WRs, and even better if you snag a Boldin or Welker in the 3rd.

 

[bushdocda]

Are we really discussing someones mock draft?

 

[ZWK]

I think this strategy is going too far. Taking one early RB and then waiting till round 5 or 6 for your second RB might work, though, especially if you have a top 4 pick.

First, you're limiting your flexibility in rounds 5-8 by essentially forcing yourself to take RBs then. What if there's great WR (or TE or QB) value available then? Some underrated WR who is typically being drafted then, or someone who falls in your draft? You can't take advantage, since you have to draft RBs. Plus, you already have your 3 starting WRs, so that great deal would just give you a great 4th WR.

The reasoning behind this strategy is that RBs are unpredictable. But you're basically counting on 2 of your 4 mid-round RBs to at least become solid starters. It's one thing to count on one of your mid-round RBs panning out, but to bet on getting solid production from 2 of the 4 is much riskier.

The statistic that there's 67% turnover in the top 24 overstates the unpredictability of running backs. For one thing, the draft order is not the same as last year's standings - Shonn Greene and Ryan Mathews are being drafted early, Thomas Jones and Ricky Williams are not. And with early round picks you're not just getting one of the top 24, you're getting one of the top 10 or 15 RBs.

Let's look at some numbers. Using ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator, over the past 3 years 73% of running backs who were drafted in the first 2 rounds ended up in the top 24. Among running backs drafted in rounds 5-9, only 33% made the top 24. On average only 8 of the top 24 RBs were players who had been drafted after round 4 (14 were drafted in rounds 1-4 and 2 were undrafted). That means that you'll be starting subpar RBs unless you can find 2 of those 8 value RBs, and with only a 33% hit rate on those picks your odds aren't good.

 

[Man In The Box]

I think this strategy is going too far. Taking one early RB and then waiting till round 5 or 6 for your second RB might work, though, especially if you have a top 4 pick.First, you're limiting your flexibility in rounds 5-8 by essentially forcing yourself to take RBs then. What if there's great WR (or TE or QB) value available then? Some underrated WR who is typically being drafted then, or someone who falls in your draft? You can't take advantage, since you have to draft RBs. Plus, you already have your 3 starting WRs, so that great deal would just give you a great 4th WR.The reasoning behind this strategy is that RBs are unpredictable. But you're basically counting on 2 of your 4 mid-round RBs to at least become solid starters. It's one thing to count on one of your mid-round RBs panning out, but to bet on getting solid production from 2 of the 4 is much riskier.The statistic that there's 67% turnover in the top 24 overstates the unpredictability of running backs. For one thing, the draft order is not the same as last year's standings - Shonn Greene and Ryan Mathews are being drafted early, Thomas Jones and Ricky Williams are not. And with early round picks you're not just getting one of the top 24, you're getting one of the top 10 or 15 RBs.Let's look at some numbers. Using ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator, over the past 3 years 73% of running backs who were drafted in the first 2 rounds ended up in the top 24. Among running backs drafted in rounds 5-9, only 33% made the top 24. On average only 8 of the top 24 RBs were players who had been drafted after round 4 (14 were drafted in rounds 1-4 and 2 were undrafted). That means that you'll be starting subpar RBs unless you can find 2 of those 8 value RBs, and with only a 33% hit rate on those picks your odds aren't good.

Not only this, but good luck picking which of your 2RB's, if any, will go off in a given week.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

But you took a 5th round WR in the second round

 

[benbadman]

get back to us in December and let us know how the team works.. or give us a weekly update too

 

[Warrior]

especially after reading that 67% of the top 24 rbs this year, will not be in the top 24 next year

 

[monkeysee]

good luck with that team

 

[John555]

I often go against the stud RB theory. But this year I don't see the kind of Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady mega year sure bet types out there. The time to get away from drafting Running Backs early is when there are sure bet super studs at positions who are going to greatly outperform nearly everyone else. I don't see that this year and your team kind of illustrates it. Megatron is not a 1600 yard, 14 TD receiver. Probably more like 1200 yards, 10 TDs. Very good numbers, but not the type to justify a first round pick for a WR.

 

[brindrod]

1.10 - Calvin Johnson2.03 - Larry Fitzgerald3.10 - Anquan Boldin5.10 - Ahmad Bradshaw

You paid way too high if not overreached for these players. Johnson is 2nd round round material, Fitz is low 2nd round if not high 3rd Round and Bradshaw is a good deal in the 6th round.

 

[Arnold. S]

Drafted from the 7th spot in a 12 team league last night, 0.5 PPR league:Jay CutlerAlex SmithKnownshon MorenoJonathan StewartArian FosterBrandon JacobsDarren McFaddenDonald BrownKareem HugginsJavon RingerRashad JenningsAndre JohnsonCalvin JohnsonLarry FitzgeraldMohamed MassaquaoiJabar GaffneyMike Williams (TB)Chris CooleyNick FolkNE Pats

Did you get Fitz that late? 3.7?

Yes, I was ready to take Jamaal Charles, but Fitz was still there, I couldn't resist the temptation to have Fitz as my #3...

 

[shnikies]

Does this mean if I were in a league with the OP and 10 of his clones I'd end up with Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson and MJD, maybe even Ray Rice for bye weeks? Sign me up!

 

[Texasmouth]

Bradshaw has been moving up a lot of boards. The days of grabbing him in the 6th round are over if you are in a league of people who pay attention. I have read draft after draft now here and other sites where he is mid 5th round now.

The more he moves, the more people are going to start reaching to get him. I am super high on the guy and I think he will out produce a lot of people going in the 4th round.

I just took Bradshaw at 5.05 and the three guys after me said if I hadnt taken him, they would have.

 

[Eraser]

I'm starting to think the strategy should be more about drafting Nicks & Crabtree in rounds 4 & 5 (or 3 & 4) as your WR2 & WR3.......this allows you to grab an already proven RB and WR in the first two rounds. Not to mention if you think you can grab them in rounds 4 & 5, you could go QB in the 3rd.

Just a thought....

E

 

[Patoons]

Otis and I drafted tonight in the FFPC (12 team, 1ppr for WR, RB and 1.5 PPR for TEs) and ended up using this strategy based on the hand we were dealt and what we felt were the best players on the board. Our starting lineup is:

P.Manning

J.Stewart

A.Bradshaw

R.Wayne

B.Marshall

W.Welker

J.Knox

Shiancoe

K

D

Not thrilled with the TE situation. We were hoping for a little Heath Miller or Cooley, but they got snagged a little before. I think this is a solid strategy depending on where you pick. We were slated at #11 and weren't really thrilled with the RB selections so decided to wait and target the top WRs.

We're pretty happy with this team.

 

[Patoons]

1.10 - Calvin Johnson2.03 - Larry Fitzgerald3.10 - Anquan Boldin5.10 - Ahmad Bradshaw

You paid way too high if not overreached for these players. Johnson is 2nd round round material, Fitz is low 2nd round if not high 3rd Round and Bradshaw is a good deal in the 6th round.

Not so sure I agree.I've seen a ton of leagues (especially PPR leagues) where this is about where these players are being selected.

 

[Lab]

Here is a mock, i just completed, i picked 10th.

1.10 - Calvin Johnson

2.03 - Larry Fitzgerald

3.10 - Anquan Boldin

4.03 - Matt Schaub

5.10 - Ahmad Bradshaw

6.03 - Marion Barber

7.10 - Reggie Bush

8.03 - Michael Bush

9.10 - Zach Miller

10.03 - Mike Williams TB

What RBs were available at 3.10? I've had a few drafts this season where I got stuck with a late-round pick, and went WR/WR as a result. But then I'd shift to RB/RB in rounds 3-4, and get guys like McCoy, Charles, Wells, Stewart, Addai, Forte, Moreno. I think you suffered by taking that 3rd WR at 3.10, because the value-spread between Boldin and another WR you could have gotten in round 5-6 is not enough to match the spread in RB value you're now facing (McCoy/Charles vs. Bradshaw/Barber). I think that if you go with a WR/WR strategy, you might be best served by waiting longer on QB, so you can get some solid tier-2 RBs.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Are we really discussing someones mock draft?

not a deep thinker are ya...

 

[Old Redskin]

I would suggest that this type of strategy only works if you have one of the last 3 picks of the first round, and there is a run on RBs. Picking from the number 11 spot this year, you can see my team in my sig. Not a single worry on the WR side, but I've got a world of headaches on the RB side! I've employed this strategy for several years now, but end up spending all of my time chasing down the latest injury back-up! It's worked for me, but requires a ton more work and dedication, along with a fair degree of luck, to pull off a league championship!As the staff at FBGs will tell you, take the best player available and don't be blinded by "I have to draft RB-RB-WR (or whatever your draft strategy may be)." It's proven to be sound advice for me!

So based on your roster in the sig it looks like you drafted Moss, Austin, and P Thomas in the first three rounds. Who did you draft in the 4th? TO? I would have though you would have been able to get a pretty good RB2 early in the 4th round that would have helped with your concern about your RBs.

You're analysis is spot on. Actually, at the time of the draft in early August, the projections for Brandon Jacobs were much more favorable and there had been a serious run on RBs. Looking back, the best alternative choice at the time was J Best. TO was picked up in the 6th round.

 

[BRONG]

Are we really discussing someones mock draft?

not a deep thinker are ya...

Love me some Hipple.