Don't Overreact 2025 Edition (6 Viewers)

[Ilov80s]

I post this thread just about every year. Even the best fantasy players have bad weeks. If that bad week comes in week 6,we just brush it off. If it happens week 1, we panic and make grand sweeping assumptions off a single data point. The same can be said the other way. Mediocre players can have big weeks. Just because that big week happens to come week 1, doesn't mean it's a sign of things to come. It's a short season and there is a lot of randomness. Be cool and look at the big picture. Usually I wait until after week 1 but I already see AJ Brown, Omarion Hampton, Pacheco, Pickens panic and people getting maybe a little too excited about guys like QJ and Javonte Williams.

So just a reminder that in 2024, after week 1...

• Jayden Reed, Cooper Kupp and Allen Lazard were the WR1, WR2 and WR3
• Alec Pierce had more than double the fantasy points of Amon Ra, Drake London and JSN combined
• Terry McLaurin was WR77

• Jordan Mason, Rhamondre Stevenson and JK Dobbins were top 5 RBs combining for over 400 yards and 3 TDs
• Breece Hall looked like he was worthy of his top 3 ADP with 22 touches, 5 receptions, 90 yards and a TD
• Derrick Henry only had 48 total yards, less than teammate Justice Hill

• Anthony Richardson outscored Lamar and Jalen Hurts
• Joe Burrow was QB30
• Kyle Pitts was TE3

Note I am using 0.5 PPR for these

 

[travdogg]

I post this thread just about every year. Even the best fantasy players have bad weeks. If that bad week comes in week 6,we just brush it off. If it happens week 1, we panic and make grand sweeping assumptions off a single data point. The same can be said the other way. Mediocre players can have big weeks. Just because that big week happens to come week 1, doesn't mean it's a sign of things to come. It's a short season and there is a lot of randomness. Be cool and look at the big picture. Usually I wait until after week 1 but I already see AJ Brown, Omarion Hampton, Pacheco, Pickens panic and people getting maybe a little too excited about guys like QJ and Javonte Williams.

So just a reminder that in 2024, after week 1...

• Jayden Reed, Cooper Kupp and Allen Lazard were the WR1, WR2 and WR3
• Alec Pierce had more than double the fantasy points of Amon Ra, Drake London and JSN combined
• Terry McLaurin was WR77

• Jordan Mason, Rhamondre Stevenson and JK Dobbins were top 5 RBs combining for over 400 yards and 3 TDs
• Breece Hall looked like he was worthy of his top 3 ADP with 22 touches, 5 receptions, 90 yards and a TD
• Derrick Henry only had 48 total yards, less than teammate Justice Hill

• Anthony Richardson outscored Lamar and Jalen Hurts
• Joe Burrow was QB30
• Kyle Pitts was TE3

Note I am using 0.5 PPR for these

Oh man, the victory laps people were taking on Cooper Kupp after week 1 last year.

That said, I do think at least in the case of Pacheco some worry is justified, as is perhaps some excitement over Javonte.

 

[Ilov80s]

I post this thread just about every year. Even the best fantasy players have bad weeks. If that bad week comes in week 6,we just brush it off. If it happens week 1, we panic and make grand sweeping assumptions off a single data point. The same can be said the other way. Mediocre players can have big weeks. Just because that big week happens to come week 1, doesn't mean it's a sign of things to come. It's a short season and there is a lot of randomness. Be cool and look at the big picture. Usually I wait until after week 1 but I already see AJ Brown, Omarion Hampton, Pacheco, Pickens panic and people getting maybe a little too excited about guys like QJ and Javonte Williams.

So just a reminder that in 2024, after week 1...

• Jayden Reed, Cooper Kupp and Allen Lazard were the WR1, WR2 and WR3
• Alec Pierce had more than double the fantasy points of Amon Ra, Drake London and JSN combined
• Terry McLaurin was WR77

• Jordan Mason, Rhamondre Stevenson and JK Dobbins were top 5 RBs combining for over 400 yards and 3 TDs
• Breece Hall looked like he was worthy of his top 3 ADP with 22 touches, 5 receptions, 90 yards and a TD
• Derrick Henry only had 48 total yards, less than teammate Justice Hill

• Anthony Richardson outscored Lamar and Jalen Hurts
• Joe Burrow was QB30
• Kyle Pitts was TE3

Note I am using 0.5 PPR for these

Oh man, the victory laps people were taking on Cooper Kupp after week 1 last year.

That said, I do think at least in the case of Pacheco some worry is justified, as is perhaps some excitement over Javonte.

Yeah I can't say every surprising thing that happens week 1 is meaningless. Look at Puka a couple years ago as a prime example. Javonte is the starting RB for a Dallas offense which could be pretty high flying. But conversely, he was 15 for 54, 2 for 10. He looked strong but didn't show much else. He is likely going to live or die by GL TDs. If you drafted him, you have to feel good about where you got him but he didn't blow me away enough to override what I've seen from him over his entire NFL career. As for Pacheco, he was taken in the RB20-30 range so everyone was very aware of his limitations and downside. He caught 2 passes. averaged 5 yards a carry. With Worthy hurt now too, it probably just means more Pacheco. There are touch worries and Kareem Hunt could be annoying but I think Pacheco probably had one of his worst games of the season and Javonte one of his best. I am curious to see they compare next week. I actually see a lot of commonalities between them in play, inury history and offensive team upside.

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

Frisman Jackson says hi

 

[King of the Jungle]

I post this thread just about every year. Even the best fantasy players have bad weeks. If that bad week comes in week 6,we just brush it off. If it happens week 1, we panic and make grand sweeping assumptions off a single data point. The same can be said the other way. Mediocre players can have big weeks. Just because that big week happens to come week 1, doesn't mean it's a sign of things to come. It's a short season and there is a lot of randomness. Be cool and look at the big picture. Usually I wait until after week 1 but I already see AJ Brown, Omarion Hampton, Pacheco, Pickens panic and people getting maybe a little too excited about guys like QJ and Javonte Williams.

So just a reminder that in 2024, after week 1...

• Jayden Reed, Cooper Kupp and Allen Lazard were the WR1, WR2 and WR3
• Alec Pierce had more than double the fantasy points of Amon Ra, Drake London and JSN combined
• Terry McLaurin was WR77

• Jordan Mason, Rhamondre Stevenson and JK Dobbins were top 5 RBs combining for over 400 yards and 3 TDs
• Breece Hall looked like he was worthy of his top 3 ADP with 22 touches, 5 receptions, 90 yards and a TD
• Derrick Henry only had 48 total yards, less than teammate Justice Hill

• Anthony Richardson outscored Lamar and Jalen Hurts
• Joe Burrow was QB30
• Kyle Pitts was TE3

Note I am using 0.5 PPR for these

Oh man, the victory laps people were taking on Cooper Kupp after week 1 last year.

That said, I do think at least in the case of Pacheco some worry is justified, as is perhaps some excitement over Javonte.

I think you are right about Pacheco, but believe Javonte may be a sell. I think DAL lucked out after the spit and it left PHI scrambling. I think he beats his ADP but will be TD reliant from here on out.

 

[travdogg]

I post this thread just about every year. Even the best fantasy players have bad weeks. If that bad week comes in week 6,we just brush it off. If it happens week 1, we panic and make grand sweeping assumptions off a single data point. The same can be said the other way. Mediocre players can have big weeks. Just because that big week happens to come week 1, doesn't mean it's a sign of things to come. It's a short season and there is a lot of randomness. Be cool and look at the big picture. Usually I wait until after week 1 but I already see AJ Brown, Omarion Hampton, Pacheco, Pickens panic and people getting maybe a little too excited about guys like QJ and Javonte Williams.

So just a reminder that in 2024, after week 1...

• Jayden Reed, Cooper Kupp and Allen Lazard were the WR1, WR2 and WR3
• Alec Pierce had more than double the fantasy points of Amon Ra, Drake London and JSN combined
• Terry McLaurin was WR77

• Jordan Mason, Rhamondre Stevenson and JK Dobbins were top 5 RBs combining for over 400 yards and 3 TDs
• Breece Hall looked like he was worthy of his top 3 ADP with 22 touches, 5 receptions, 90 yards and a TD
• Derrick Henry only had 48 total yards, less than teammate Justice Hill

• Anthony Richardson outscored Lamar and Jalen Hurts
• Joe Burrow was QB30
• Kyle Pitts was TE3

Note I am using 0.5 PPR for these

Oh man, the victory laps people were taking on Cooper Kupp after week 1 last year.

That said, I do think at least in the case of Pacheco some worry is justified, as is perhaps some excitement over Javonte.

I think you are right about Pacheco, but believe Javonte may be a sell. I think DAL lucked out after the spit and it left PHI scrambling. I think he beats his ADP but will be TD reliant from here on out.

Beating ADP is all I meant when saying some excitement over Javonte is warranted.

 

[Chaka]

Week one overreacting is, like 87% of the reason I'm here.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

How about Worthy? Can I overreact to that?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Frisman Jackson says hi

Hollywood Brown, circa 2019 says hi.

Game 1: 5/147/2

ROS: wet fart noises

 

[BLOCKED_PUNT]

How about Worthy? Can I overreact to that?

I doubt it's season ending or anything given that he walked out on his own. He migh miss a week or 2.

 

[travdogg]

Frisman Jackson says hi

Hollywood Brown, circa 2019 says hi.

Game 1: 5/147/2

ROS: wet fart noises

Rest of career has pretty much been wet fart noises.

 

[Chaka]

How about Worthy? Can I overreact to that?

Go on....

 

[Chaka]

How about Worthy? Can I overreact to that?

I doubt it's season ending or anything given that he walked out on his own. He migh miss a week or 2.

Well, they didn't ask him to walk out in a hand stand, so....

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Frisman Jackson says hi

Hollywood Brown, circa 2019 says hi.

Game 1: 5/147/2

ROS: wet fart noises

Rest of career has pretty much been wet fart noises.

To be fair, he had a whopping 13 targets the next game. And did very little with them. 80-something yards. Never saw more than a handful of targets after that.

 

[Ilov80s]

I post this thread just about every year. Even the best fantasy players have bad weeks. If that bad week comes in week 6,we just brush it off. If it happens week 1, we panic and make grand sweeping assumptions off a single data point. The same can be said the other way. Mediocre players can have big weeks. Just because that big week happens to come week 1, doesn't mean it's a sign of things to come. It's a short season and there is a lot of randomness. Be cool and look at the big picture. Usually I wait until after week 1 but I already see AJ Brown, Omarion Hampton, Pacheco, Pickens panic and people getting maybe a little too excited about guys like QJ and Javonte Williams.

So just a reminder that in 2024, after week 1...

• Jayden Reed, Cooper Kupp and Allen Lazard were the WR1, WR2 and WR3
• Alec Pierce had more than double the fantasy points of Amon Ra, Drake London and JSN combined
• Terry McLaurin was WR77

• Jordan Mason, Rhamondre Stevenson and JK Dobbins were top 5 RBs combining for over 400 yards and 3 TDs
• Breece Hall looked like he was worthy of his top 3 ADP with 22 touches, 5 receptions, 90 yards and a TD
• Derrick Henry only had 48 total yards, less than teammate Justice Hill

• Anthony Richardson outscored Lamar and Jalen Hurts
• Joe Burrow was QB30
• Kyle Pitts was TE3

Note I am using 0.5 PPR for these

Oh man, the victory laps people were taking on Cooper Kupp after week 1 last year.

That said, I do think at least in the case of Pacheco some worry is justified, as is perhaps some excitement over Javonte.

I think you are right about Pacheco, but believe Javonte may be a sell. I think DAL lucked out after the spit and it left PHI scrambling. I think he beats his ADP but will be TD reliant from here on out.

Beating ADP is all I meant when saying some excitement over Javonte is warranted.

That’s fair. At that spot so many players end up being droppable by October and it looks like Javonte can be a viable asset.

 

[travdogg]

Maybe this is a more buy low/sell high statement than a don't overreact one, but I've been reading a lot of Travis Kelce is washed stuff today, and I don't get that at all. He was fingertips away from a 2 TD game, against the best TE stopper in the NFL. I think FAR too often people are in a rush to bury guys when they are no longer their peak selves, even if they are still one of the better guys out there. I'm not worried about the low yardage against James.

Derwin James didn't allow a single TE over 60 yards in a game last season, despite facing:
Bowers (twice)
McBride
Andrews
Kelce (just once, James was hurt for the 1st game and Kelce went for 7-89 in his absence)
Njoku

In fact, other than prime Kelce, its never happened in his career.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

How about Worthy? Can I overreact to that?

Go on....

 

[wgoldsph]

An over reaction would be @travdogg finally ranking Mahomes to match his play.

 

[rockaction]

I am killing Kansas City today. My takes are scorching. I think I believe every one of them, however, and I think for good reasons.

It's crazy because I kept writing and writing and thinking I was going off the deep end, but I don't think so, even keeping this thread in mind. The only thing that might save them is that they were in Brazil. Which sucks. And throws guys off. So that's the only thing unaccounted for.

But their problems are all last year's problems exacerbated. We saw those problems against Philly come home to really roost.

The receivers are too small and terrible intermediate route runners. Worthy and Rice are in the 33d and 20th percentile for beating man coverage. Rice is astounding against zone, beating everybody in football (he's first) but Worthy is 64th percentile. If you press them it's disgusting. Worthy beats press that give him numbers where he's 16th percentile (getting open 54% of the time) and if you press Rice—get this—he gets open 44% of the time, good for 4th percentile in the league. Tyquan Thornton and JuJu Smith-Schuster got cut by the WR factory that is the . . . Patriots??

The running backs are terrible to begin with, and they look older, slower, fatter, and more hurt or converted wide receiverish. Pacheco is a 7th rounder that has throughout his career run everywhere but forward, Hunt is the Zootopia sloth at the DMV, and let's hope the guy who just converted from WR to RB in college is Tyrone Tracy or a poor man's version of it?

Kelce took out a teammate, had Twitter ask this question aloud while the picture showed his gut ("Didn't Kelce's shirt hear that Kelce was supposed to be in shape?") and was bizarrely headbutting and yelling at his offensive lineman teammate. Truly an epic performance. I don't think that was Derwin James's doing. I think I saw Derwin sitting and eating ice cream cake. I mean, I believed Kelce when he talked about his last offseason and said this one would be different. Then he hit every hockey game, has a strangely similar body to last offseason, and used the last weekend of the season to get engaged in the biggest contrived photo op one can imagine while promoting his future wife's album and just being weirdly everywhere and not performing like one would think one would perform if the fire and disappointment from last year were real. I don't really know so I'll give it a chance, but I wouldn't gamble five dollars on him, never mind anything of importance.

The offensive line looked a little better, and bless it for that. But it wasn't dominant or anything and other than an aging Mack and other DE who was on my fantasy team but whose name I can't spell, I don't think the Chargers bring the front or the rush too much.

And KC is throwing the ball even more quickly than ever regardless of their line, which means they can't get downfield. Their aDOT of all their passes had to be minuscule, but I'll bet their completions' aDOT was under five. I'd venture it was under three. I can't even fathom it being anything respectable. I mean, it was so bad. And Los Angeles wasn't like this great secondary or linebacking corps or defensive front. They're decent.

Anyway, all the problems were there besides Mahomes correcting his fitness, thank God. It was ugly.

 

[N Zone]

There's already a Quentin Johnston thread.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

Ya, to parrot you, what struck me was how little threat the Chiefs are without Rice or Worthy. And then Mahomes reminded me that he is the great equalizer.

I didn’t watch the entire game but the lack of Chris Jones name had me wondering if the gas in his tank is low. If so, that is a huge deal.

 

[Soulfly3]

lamb probably won't drop 4 passes in the next 2 seasons combined

 

[wgoldsph]

During the game I questioned if Mahomes had lost "it".

Then he made two completions only he could. Seems like I was a few hours early for this thread.