Downgrade Forte? (1 Viewer)

[DonnyT33]

Downgrade

RB LeGarrette Blount, TB

RB Delone Carter, IND

RB Matt Forte, CHI

HUH? Why, you guys didn't know Bush was gonna steal a TD here and there? I just hope your subscibers downgrade him enough that they trade him to me for below value! I don't think you need to list him as a downgrade, if anything I'd put him in as an Upgrade as with that passing attack in Chi now Defesnes will not be able to key on Forte as much now. Even if Bush taking some TDs away was the reason for a downgrade tag that may now change some as Forte has come out asking that he get some of those short TDs himself, he wants them as he feels he earned them. He didn't get many short TDs last year and still finished as a top RB in the league FF points wise and that wont change this year even with Bush there. Bad call listing him as a downgrade imo..that needs to change and fast.

 

[12punch]

that list is lol

 

[One More Rep]

I am buying on Forte also, he has never has been a big td guy so Bush should not be a problem

 

[Yolkix]

agreed.

 

[joffer]

If I was drafting today, id have him a few slots lower

 

[ponchsox]

Forte showed Sunday why he is a stud even with Bush.

 

[shnikies]

RB Matt Forte, CHI - Forte average five yards per carry and had a touchdown and tallied 120 total yards, so why the downgrade? Because Michael Bush had nearly half Forte's rushing attempts and scored twice as the goal line option. This isn't likely to change, which makes Forte a low-end RB1 at best, and more likely a solid RB2. This is where fantasy owners likely acquired him, but the proof of his ceiling is still somewhat sobering.

I'm not sure who wrote that but they must be confused. Maybe they mean RB2 in a 6 team league?

 

[ponchsox]

Forte looks like a candidate for 1,700 total yards this season with 8-10 TDs. To call him a solid RB2 is a joke.

 

[shader]

Every league isn't ppr

 

[3 hour lunch]

Clearly, Forte is very talented. I think the downgrade is just based on the carry ratio, and more specifically, the short yardage carries. I'm not saying 1 game defines that ratio, but if Bush gets 40% of the carries this year and 70% of the goalline carries, do you think Forte is going to get 18 PPG in non-PPR? We may have seen his ceiling based on the split? I can see how someone may have lowered their expectations slightly, but I'm not sure who you would now draft in front of him that you wouldn't have before. Still an RB1 I think, regardless.

 

[Biabreakable]

Every league isn't ppr

I think close to half of peoples disagreements on rankings here are because they do not realize that basic FBG rankings are NOT for PPR leagues. In this case it makes a huge difference in how you value a player such as one in Fortes situation right now.

 

[kutta]

RB Matt Forte, CHI - Forte average five yards per carry and had a touchdown and tallied 120 total yards, so why the downgrade? Because Michael Bush had nearly half Forte's rushing attempts and scored twice as the goal line option. This isn't likely to change, which makes Forte a low-end RB1 at best, and more likely a solid RB2. This is where fantasy owners likely acquired him, but the proof of his ceiling is still somewhat sobering.I'm not sure who wrote that but they must be confused. Maybe they mean RB2 in a 6 team league?

I actually think it is a pretty accurate assessment. His upside is limited. He's not going to have those three TD games that really put you over the top.He's going to perform well, but he's going to perform pretty much where he was drafted, no higher, but maybe a bit lower.

 

[Warrior]

DowngradeRB LeGarrette Blount, TBRB Delone Carter, INDRB Matt Forte, CHIHUH? Why, you guys didn't know Bush was gonna steal a TD here and there? I just hope your subscibers downgrade him enough that they trade him to me for below value! I don't think you need to list him as a downgrade, if anything I'd put him in as an Upgrade as with that passing attack in Chi now Defesnes will nto be able to key on Forte as much now. Even if Bush taking some TDs away was the reason for a downgrade tag that may now change some as Forte has come out asking that he get some of those short TDs himself, he wants them as he feels he earned them. He didn't get many short TDs last year and still finished as a top RB in the league FF points wise and that wont chance this year even with Bush there. Bad call listing him as a downgrade imo..that needs to change and fast.

Boo hoo...so the Forte owner got his feelings hurt after receiving some common sense advice?He's clearly not getting in anywhere near the goal-line this season...6 TDs if he's lucky.Add the fact that he's not catching as many passes (as stated directly by Jay Cutler...the guy who won't be throwing to him).Sell HIGH after a pitiful matchup against Indy, one of the worst rush defenses in the league.

 

[Warrior]

Forte looks like a candidate for 1,700 total yards this season with 8-10 TDs. To call him a solid RB2 is a joke.

....no

 

[12punch]

Every league isn't ppr

I think close to half of peoples disagreements on rankings here are because they do not realize that basic FBG rankings are NOT for PPR leagues. In this case it makes a huge difference in how you value a player such as one in Fortes situation right now.

lolzif we're talking non-ppr at a retirement community, I wouldn't have forte rated very highly in the first place.

 

[RBM]

Whoever wrote that must not have seen the game. Forte looked great...as good as he ever has.

 

[cobalt_27]

Every league isn't ppr

Which is inexcusable.

 

[zandbak]

He's clearly not getting in anywhere near the goal-line this season...6 TDs if he's lucky.

He scored a TD in the game:(11:57) 22-M.Forte left tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.>Hint, that was near the goal line.and broke a run which resulted in him being tackled at the 1:(8:45) 22-M.Forte right tackle to IND 1 for 15 yards (28-T.Zbikowski).That sure looks like him getting near the goal-line twice. One resulted in a TD.

Add the fact that he's not catching as many passes (as stated directly by Jay Cutler...the guy who won't be throwing to him).

A quote isn't fact. The actual fact is that he caught 3 passes. This career average is 3.7. You're right, he's just below his career average after 1 game.

Sell HIGH after a pitiful matchup against Indy, one of the worst rush defenses in the league.

Why again are you suggesting people sell high? Because he performed exactly as advertised? When you reply please bring some facts, thanks.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Forte #####ing about losing gl carries.... mildly

http://m.nfl.com/news/0ap1000000060389/

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Matt Forte pumped out 80 yards off 16 carries Sunday, but the Chicago Bears running back was more concerned about the touches he didn't receive in the team's 41-21 win over the Indianapolis Colts .

Namely those money-in-the-bank opportunities down at the goal line, awarded to his new backfield mate Michael Bush . Forte didn't sound happy about it.

"It's been happening my whole career here, so I don't know," Forte told the Chicago Sun-Times . "That's (coordinator Mike Tice's) call."

Tice pulled his workhorse repeatedly in goal-line situations. After Forte barreled for a 32-yard gain on the opening drive, he ripped off a 15-yarder to hand the Bears a first-and-goal from the 1. Tice proceeded to feed the ball to Bush two straight times, leading to Chicago's first touchdown of the game. Bush scored again from the 1-yard line before halftime.

Forte had eight more carries than Bush and the problem isn't between the two of them. "Mike can do it all, as well," Forte said. "He can catch the ball on third downs, so there are no limitations when I come out of the game. It's not like if I come out on third down, he can't do the same thing."

Even if Bush can do what Forte can do, Forte would rather do it himself.

Follow Marc Sessler on Twitter @MarcSesslerNFL .

By Marc Sessler Published: September 10, 2012 at 8:09 AM Modified: September 10, 2012 at 5:25 PM

 

[mbuehner]

Forte always struggled at the goalline. He isnt losing much there because he didnt have much to start with from his baseline.

 

[Goat Herders]

I'm not sure why it's so surprising to suggest a downgrade of a first round pick who isn't getting goal line carries. Forte is a great player, bit he isn't going to score 15 touchdowns.

 

[moleculo]

I'm not sure why it's so surprising to suggest a downgrade of a first round pick who isn't getting goal line carries. Forte is a great player, bit he isn't going to score 15 touchdowns.

if your initial projections had him for 10+ TD's this year, then by all means - downgrade him. Most folks had him at 6 TD's or so, so no big deal. Bush being a TD vulture was a known issue in pre-season, and should already be baked into Forte's value, so I don't see the point of a downgrade.

 

[SameSongNDance]

The beautiful thing about Forte is that he has a high floor but a low ceiling. The low ceiling is relative though and mostly compared to the ceiling of other first/early second rounders. The farther the ceiling drops due to less snaps and etc, the more safe and less exciting he gets. He starts to look like SJAX, a very solid RB2 in that sense (eerily similar stats anyway). I'd still call him a low-end RB1, as I can't name twelve RBs I'd rather have ahead of him.

Bottom line, I don't think he has the upside to carry teams on his back but he'll almost always produce for you. This isn't a bad thing.

 

[Yolkix]

I have considered him one of the safest bets outside the top guys to finish in the top 10 in ppr and week 1 just firms my stance.

 

[Kenny Powers]

As a Bush owner, Im hoping to sell high this week or next if he has another nice game.

I definitely think Bush limits Forte's ability to be a Top 5 RB, but Id be surprised if Forte stays healthy and doesnt end up Top 12

 

[Zeff]

I'm not sure why it's so surprising to suggest a downgrade of a first round pick who isn't getting goal line carries. Forte is a great player, bit he isn't going to score 15 touchdowns.

Because you don't "downgrade" someone for exactly zero change in what you knew about him going in; for repeating exactly what he's done his whole career, which has always made him an excellent fantasy back.You say, "Yup,that's pretty much as expected. Forte will be the workhorse, will pile up yards from scrimmage, and will get occasional TD's. Bush will be the backup and goalline guy, and steal much of the TD glory."You only downgrade him if you expected 15 TD's before you saw Bush in the GL package. Which I can't imagine anyone did.

 

[Zeff]

Clearly, Forte is very talented. I think the downgrade is just based on the carry ratio, and more specifically, the short yardage carries. I'm not saying 1 game defines that ratio, but if Bush gets 40% of the carries this year and 70% of the goalline carries, do you think Forte is going to get 18 PPG in non-PPR? We may have seen his ceiling based on the split? I can see how someone may have lowered their expectations slightly, but I'm not sure who you would now draft in front of him that you wouldn't have before. Still an RB1 I think, regardless.

Bush isn't getting 40% of the carries on the season if both guys are healthy. The backup's carries always get a boost in a blowout. Forte was on the pine, smiling and high-fiving teammates the last series and a half, when the team knew they were better off with him on the sideline not risking injury. If that game ends up a typical NFL < 7 pt. affair, Bush isn't out there workhorsing it much of the 4th quarter...he's on the pine rooting for Forte to do his thing.It was glaringly obvious from their usage patterns that this isn't a timeshare. It's a backup doing backup duty, and a stud doing stud duty. Expect 75/25 moving forward, and plan accordingly.

 

[JuniorNB]

DowngradeRB LeGarrette Blount, TBRB Delone Carter, INDRB Matt Forte, CHIHUH? Why, you guys didn't know Bush was gonna steal a TD here and there? I just hope your subscibers downgrade him enough that they trade him to me for below value! I don't think you need to list him as a downgrade, if anything I'd put him in as an Upgrade as with that passing attack in Chi now Defesnes will nto be able to key on Forte as much now. Even if Bush taking some TDs away was the reason for a downgrade tag that may now change some as Forte has come out asking that he get some of those short TDs himself, he wants them as he feels he earned them. He didn't get many short TDs last year and still finished as a top RB in the league FF points wise and that wont chance this year even with Bush there. Bad call listing him as a downgrade imo..that needs to change and fast.

Boo hoo...so the Forte owner got his feelings hurt after receiving some common sense advice?He's clearly not getting in anywhere near the goal-line this season...6 TDs if he's lucky.Add the fact that he's not catching as many passes (as stated directly by Jay Cutler...the guy who won't be throwing to him).Sell HIGH after a pitiful matchup against Indy, one of the worst rush defenses in the league.

Stick to fake sports like pro wrestling. Football obviously isn't your strong suit.

 

[Short Corner]

I have considered him one of the safest bets outside the top guys to finish in the top 10 in ppr and week 1 just firms my stance.

I think this true in standard formats as well.

 

[Dr. Awesome]

I'm not sure why it's so surprising to suggest a downgrade of a first round pick who isn't getting goal line carries. Forte is a great player, bit he isn't going to score 15 touchdowns.

if your initial projections had him for 10+ TD's this year, then by all means - downgrade him. Most folks had him at 6 TD's or so, so no big deal. Bush being a TD vulture was a known issue in pre-season, and should already be baked into Forte's value, so I don't see the point of a downgrade.

I'm not sure why it's so surprising to suggest a downgrade of a first round pick who isn't getting goal line carries. Forte is a great player, bit he isn't going to score 15 touchdowns.

Because you don't "downgrade" someone for exactly zero change in what you knew about him going in; for repeating exactly what he's done his whole career, which has always made him an excellent fantasy back.You say, "Yup,that's pretty much as expected. Forte will be the workhorse, will pile up yards from scrimmage, and will get occasional TD's. Bush will be the backup and goalline guy, and steal much of the TD glory."You only downgrade him if you expected 15 TD's before you saw Bush in the GL package. Which I can't imagine anyone did.

 

[Sudoku_in_the_Bathtub]

Why are Carter & Blount even included (if a recent article)?

Just seems quite a bit late here on this analysis.

 

[fightingillini]

The beautiful thing about Forte is that he has a high floor but a low ceiling. The low ceiling is relative though and mostly compared to the ceiling of other first/early second rounders. The farther the ceiling drops due to less snaps and etc, the more safe and less exciting he gets. He starts to look like SJAX, a very solid RB2 in that sense (eerily similar stats anyway). I'd still call him a low-end RB1, as I can't name twelve RBs I'd rather have ahead of him.Bottom line, I don't think he has the upside to carry teams on his back but he'll almost always produce for you. This isn't a bad thing.

I have Forte in a 10 team league non-PPR for RBs and I got him in the 2nd round after getting Brady in the 1st (superflex league, can start 2 QBs). I will take 1600 or more all purpose yards and 8-10 TDs. Forte has never been a big TD producer.....if he were, the Bears wouldn't have paid to get Michael Bush and Forte would have been a top 5 selection in every draft. Being able to get him in the late first (PPR leagues) or the early mid second round (non PPR leagues) reflects that fact.The downgrade really isn't fair....Forte is doing what we all expected him to do.....rack up yards and receptions, but give up some TDs to Bush. He's a hold steady IMO.Right now I can only list 7 RBs that I like ahead of Forte.....Foster, Rice, McCoy, McFadden, Mathews(when healthy), Peterson, and Murray. Could add in MJD depending on the JAX situation. A few others have a chance to be better due to high ceilings, but at the end of the day, I can't see Forte not being in the top 12 RBs if he's healthy all year long.

 

[Possum]

RB Matt Forte, CHI - Forte average five yards per carry and had a touchdown and tallied 120 total yards, so why the downgrade? Because Michael Bush had nearly half Forte's rushing attempts and scored twice as the goal line option. This isn't likely to change, which makes Forte a low-end RB1 at best, and more likely a solid RB2. This is where fantasy owners likely acquired him, but the proof of his ceiling is still somewhat sobering.I'm not sure who wrote that but they must be confused. Maybe they mean RB2 in a 6 team league?

I actually think it is a pretty accurate assessment. His upside is limited. He's not going to have those three TD games that really put you over the top.He's going to perform well, but he's going to perform pretty much where he was drafted, no higher, but maybe a bit lower.

I agree that Forte's upside is limited this year, and I think he's going to end up being a bit of a disappointment for people who drafted him as a RB1. Forte's value has always been his work rate (especially catching the ball) rather than TDs, so I don't think Bush getting the GL looks is a big deal.But I do think Forte's receiving numbers are going to take a hit with the addition of Marshall and Jeffrey - Cutler's going to be looking to throw to his WRs a lot more than in the past when the Bears' talent was so weak at that position. I also think that Bush is equally as talented a running back as Forte, and as the year goes on he's going to begin to eat into Forte's playing time more and more as the Chicago coaching staff works him into the gameplan.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

What are the chances Chicago didn't overwork Forte last week with the knowledge of a short week and the Packers on Thursday?

 

[shnikies]

DowngradeRB LeGarrette Blount, TBRB Delone Carter, INDRB Matt Forte, CHIHUH? Why, you guys didn't know Bush was gonna steal a TD here and there? I just hope your subscibers downgrade him enough that they trade him to me for below value! I don't think you need to list him as a downgrade, if anything I'd put him in as an Upgrade as with that passing attack in Chi now Defesnes will nto be able to key on Forte as much now. Even if Bush taking some TDs away was the reason for a downgrade tag that may now change some as Forte has come out asking that he get some of those short TDs himself, he wants them as he feels he earned them. He didn't get many short TDs last year and still finished as a top RB in the league FF points wise and that wont chance this year even with Bush there. Bad call listing him as a downgrade imo..that needs to change and fast.

Boo hoo...so the Forte owner got his feelings hurt after receiving some common sense advice?He's clearly not getting in anywhere near the goal-line this season...6 TDs if he's lucky.Add the fact that he's not catching as many passes (as stated directly by Jay Cutler...the guy who won't be throwing to him).Sell HIGH after a pitiful matchup against Indy, one of the worst rush defenses in the league.

Watch the game. He scored from the 6 yard line and not to mention, he can score from anywhere on the field. Common sense advice? What has changed from when he was drafted (fantasy)? Nothing except Forte looking like he did before the injury, arguably the most talented back in the game.

 

[Short Corner]

RB Matt Forte, CHI - Forte average five yards per carry and had a touchdown and tallied 120 total yards, so why the downgrade? Because Michael Bush had nearly half Forte's rushing attempts and scored twice as the goal line option. This isn't likely to change, which makes Forte a low-end RB1 at best, and more likely a solid RB2. This is where fantasy owners likely acquired him, but the proof of his ceiling is still somewhat sobering.I'm not sure who wrote that but they must be confused. Maybe they mean RB2 in a 6 team league?

I actually think it is a pretty accurate assessment. His upside is limited. He's not going to have those three TD games that really put you over the top.He's going to perform well, but he's going to perform pretty much where he was drafted, no higher, but maybe a bit lower.

I agree that Forte's upside is limited this year, and I think he's going to end up being a bit of a disappointment for people who drafted him as a RB1.

Where do you figure him to finish among RBs?

 

[shadyridr]

I'm not sure why it's so surprising to suggest a downgrade of a first round pick who isn't getting goal line carries. Forte is a great player, bit he isn't going to score 15 touchdowns.

Did you not know that would happen BEFORE week 1?

 

[fightingillini]

DowngradeRB LeGarrette Blount, TBRB Delone Carter, INDRB Matt Forte, CHIHUH? Why, you guys didn't know Bush was gonna steal a TD here and there? I just hope your subscibers downgrade him enough that they trade him to me for below value! I don't think you need to list him as a downgrade, if anything I'd put him in as an Upgrade as with that passing attack in Chi now Defesnes will nto be able to key on Forte as much now. Even if Bush taking some TDs away was the reason for a downgrade tag that may now change some as Forte has come out asking that he get some of those short TDs himself, he wants them as he feels he earned them. He didn't get many short TDs last year and still finished as a top RB in the league FF points wise and that wont chance this year even with Bush there. Bad call listing him as a downgrade imo..that needs to change and fast.

Boo hoo...so the Forte owner got his feelings hurt after receiving some common sense advice?He's clearly not getting in anywhere near the goal-line this season...6 TDs if he's lucky.Add the fact that he's not catching as many passes (as stated directly by Jay Cutler...the guy who won't be throwing to him).Sell HIGH after a pitiful matchup against Indy, one of the worst rush defenses in the league.

Watch the game. He scored from the 6 yard line and not to mention, he can score from anywhere on the field. Common sense advice? What has changed from when he was drafted (fantasy)? Nothing except Forte looking like he did before the injury, arguably the most talented back in the game.

Also, remember that Forte is going to have a few receiving TDs. They count just as much as rushing TDs. I projected Forte for 9 overall TDs this year, 6 rushing and 3 receiving. That allows Bush to score 8 or so on a ground and Cutler to take a couple more, for 16 overall rushing TDs which is pretty reasonable for the Bears offense.Again, I will gladly take 1600 all purpose yards and 9 TDs, and 50 or so receptions.

 

[zandbak]

What are the chances Chicago didn't overwork Forte last week with the knowledge of a short week and the Packers on Thursday?

That combined with a blowout on Sunday explains why Bush got a bump up in carries in the 2nd half.

 

[Short Corner]

I'm not sure why it's so surprising to suggest a downgrade of a first round pick who isn't getting goal line carries. Forte is a great player, bit he isn't going to score 15 touchdowns.

Did you not know that would happen BEFORE week 1?

Doesn't matter. Next week he will be downgraded again for not getting GL work.

 

[RBM]

DowngradeRB LeGarrette Blount, TBRB Delone Carter, INDRB Matt Forte, CHIHUH? Why, you guys didn't know Bush was gonna steal a TD here and there? I just hope your subscibers downgrade him enough that they trade him to me for below value! I don't think you need to list him as a downgrade, if anything I'd put him in as an Upgrade as with that passing attack in Chi now Defesnes will nto be able to key on Forte as much now. Even if Bush taking some TDs away was the reason for a downgrade tag that may now change some as Forte has come out asking that he get some of those short TDs himself, he wants them as he feels he earned them. He didn't get many short TDs last year and still finished as a top RB in the league FF points wise and that wont chance this year even with Bush there. Bad call listing him as a downgrade imo..that needs to change and fast.

Boo hoo...so the Forte owner got his feelings hurt after receiving some common sense advice?He's clearly not getting in anywhere near the goal-line this season...6 TDs if he's lucky.Add the fact that he's not catching as many passes (as stated directly by Jay Cutler...the guy who won't be throwing to him).Sell HIGH after a pitiful matchup against Indy, one of the worst rush defenses in the league.

Watch the game. He scored from the 6 yard line and not to mention, he can score from anywhere on the field. Common sense advice? What has changed from when he was drafted (fantasy)? Nothing except Forte looking like he did before the injury, arguably the most talented back in the game.

Also, remember that Forte is going to have a few receiving TDs. They count just as much as rushing TDs. I projected Forte for 9 overall TDs this year, 6 rushing and 3 receiving. That allows Bush to score 8 or so on a ground and Cutler to take a couple more, for 16 overall rushing TDs which is pretty reasonable for the Bears offense.Again, I will gladly take 1600 all purpose yards and 9 TDs, and 50 or so receptions.

He was a yard away from having a 3td game Sunday.

 

[shnikies]

I just rewatched the game to confirm something I saw. During their first red zone appearance, Forte ran down to the one yard line and was tackled by Zbikowski. He remained in the game on first and goal at the 1 when Cutler threw a fade to Marshall and drew pass interference. A little later, he scored a 6 yard td. The possession after that, he was in the game inside the 10. So, yes, the downgrade was beyond absurd.

 

[JuniorNB]

I just rewatched the game to confirm something I saw. During their first red zone appearance, Forte ran down to the one yard line and was tackled by Zbikowski. He remained in the game on first and goal at the 1 when Cutler threw a fade to Marshall and drew pass interference. A little later, he scored a 6 yard td. The possession after that, he was in the game inside the 10. So, yes, the downgrade was beyond absurd.

Bush is going to vulture Forte's 1 & 2 yard TD runs. But anyone with half a brain about fantasy football knew that before drafting him. Yes, that will keep him from having Ray Rice-type points for the year. Otherwise, they are identical players. It seems like Forte is going to have 15 TDs stolen from him because the Bears happened to get the ball down to the 1 yard line twice this week and gift wrapped two TDs for Bush. I was thrilled with Forte's yardage production and even got a bonus TD out of him. If this is his season, he's a fantasy monster. Not sure how anyone could downgrade him. Unless they thought he was going to be early-90's Emmitt Smith.

 

[yoman]

Why are Carter & Blount even included (if a recent article)?Just seems quite a bit late here on this analysis.

I am on a tight budget so I used last year's draft guide and got Blount in the 3rd Actually I agree that it seems odd to have Carter and Blount on the same list as Forte because those players are worthless unless they get playing time due to an injury or trade. Blount now seems like a safe drop and the same goes for Carter if you are stashing them on your team and need to make a waiver claim.As many people have noted in other threads, I think Bush's presence is going to keep Forte fresher throughout the season. With this year's crop of RBs I also agree that Forte should be a low end RB1 or high end RB2 which I don't think is a downgrade from where people have been projecting him all along.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

I for one like that forte is moaning a bit. Lovey seems like the kind of guy who might throw a TD or 2 is way to keep him happy.

 

[ponchsox]

I'm glad CJ1/2K didn't fall to me and tempt me, Forte is looking like a safe RB1 for the season. Maybe not as much upside as DMAC, but a guy who you can count on for 100 total yards and .5 TDs every week.

 

[cvnpoka]

I'm not sure why it's so surprising to suggest a downgrade of a first round pick who isn't getting goal line carries. Forte is a great player, bit he isn't going to score 15 touchdowns.

if your initial projections had him for 10+ TD's this year, then by all means - downgrade him. Most folks had him at 6 TD's or so, so no big deal. Bush being a TD vulture was a known issue in pre-season, and should already be baked into Forte's value, so I don't see the point of a downgrade.

hes a downgrade bc it now appears that bush will usurp more carries than many anticipated. and it also appears that forte will be used less in the passing game than many predicted. ofc, the writing was on the wall for both of these developments prior to week 1.

 

[Kenny Powers]

Clearly, Forte is very talented. I think the downgrade is just based on the carry ratio, and more specifically, the short yardage carries. I'm not saying 1 game defines that ratio, but if Bush gets 40% of the carries this year and 70% of the goalline carries, do you think Forte is going to get 18 PPG in non-PPR? We may have seen his ceiling based on the split? I can see how someone may have lowered their expectations slightly, but I'm not sure who you would now draft in front of him that you wouldn't have before. Still an RB1 I think, regardless.

Bush isn't getting 40% of the carries on the season if both guys are healthy. The backup's carries always get a boost in a blowout. Forte was on the pine, smiling and high-fiving teammates the last series and a half, when the team knew they were better off with him on the sideline not risking injury. If that game ends up a typical NFL < 7 pt. affair, Bush isn't out there workhorsing it much of the 4th quarter...he's on the pine rooting for Forte to do his thing.It was glaringly obvious from their usage patterns that this isn't a timeshare. It's a backup doing backup duty, and a stud doing stud duty. Expect 75/25 moving forward, and plan accordingly.

Bush appearing to be a solid bet for ~15 TDs is definitely a reason to downgrade Forte to some degree. This occurring and Forte being a RB1 arent mutually exclusive.

 

[shnikies]

Clearly, Forte is very talented. I think the downgrade is just based on the carry ratio, and more specifically, the short yardage carries. I'm not saying 1 game defines that ratio, but if Bush gets 40% of the carries this year and 70% of the goalline carries, do you think Forte is going to get 18 PPG in non-PPR? We may have seen his ceiling based on the split? I can see how someone may have lowered their expectations slightly, but I'm not sure who you would now draft in front of him that you wouldn't have before. Still an RB1 I think, regardless.

Bush isn't getting 40% of the carries on the season if both guys are healthy. The backup's carries always get a boost in a blowout. Forte was on the pine, smiling and high-fiving teammates the last series and a half, when the team knew they were better off with him on the sideline not risking injury. If that game ends up a typical NFL < 7 pt. affair, Bush isn't out there workhorsing it much of the 4th quarter...he's on the pine rooting for Forte to do his thing.It was glaringly obvious from their usage patterns that this isn't a timeshare. It's a backup doing backup duty, and a stud doing stud duty. Expect 75/25 moving forward, and plan accordingly.

Bush appearing to be a solid bet for ~15 TDs is definitely a reason to downgrade Forte to some degree. This occurring and Forte being a RB1 arent mutually exclusive.

Unless Forte gets negative points for Bush touchdowns then yes, they are mutually exclusive. Here is the fact that I've already posted that you must have missed.- Forte was in at the one yard line, the six yard line (touchdown), and the eight yard line during three different possessionsIf anything he's an upgrade because nobody thought he'd see plays inside the 10 and he saw them on three different possessions.It was the first game of the season and judging the carry split on one game that was well in hand for most of the second half is foolish.