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I agree with your point for the most part (Forte has only had 3 goaline TDs in the last 3 years combined so I'm not sure why people were expecting him to get them this year after they brought a goaline back in), but I don't think you'd find many people backing you up that he's the most talented back in the game.'shnikies said:
I said arguably as in an argument can be made. And, yes, I'm sure there are plenty of people that think he's the most complete running back in the game. I have a tough time deciding between him and Ray Rice.
You didn't say most complete (though I almost knew you'd fall back on that), you said most talented, to which no, I don't think there's an argument that can be made. At least not one that many, if anyone, will buy into.
Which running backs are you thinking of that are clearly more talented?
Both of Bush's TDs came after pass interference calls in the end zone. Also, both came after almost TDs by Forte and Bennett where they got to the 1 yard line. Do you really think he is going to continue to have 1st and Goal, 1 yard TD opportunities every single game? Look at the other long reception by Forte where he got to the 3 yard line and then Cutler hit Marshall for a 3 yard TD. Did you notice that every single time the Bears got to the 1-3 yard line, they passed? They got 1 TD and 2 PIs, which usually means they could have had a TD without the PI.A "solid bet" for 15 TDs is overreaction. Outside of Foster and Rice, there are no other solid bets for 15TDs. Lots of guys score in week 1 and don't follow it up with a TD per game.'Kenny Powers said:
Other than the last two years when it was a 65-35 split with Chester Taylor and Marion Barber.
He doesn't have the upside as the top 3 RB, but who does besides McFadden? Forte is a much safer bet as a RB1 then Chris Johnson is. I don't think anyone drafted him with top 3 upside, yet he's as safe as you can get as a RB1 outside those guys.
Michael Bush>>>Chester/MBIII
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/datadom.php?pt=p&groupyears=0&prr=sc&pos=rb&team=all&opp=all&minyr=2011&maxyr=2011&minwk=1&maxwk=12&homeroad=all&mindown=1&maxdown=4&mindist=1&maxdist=99&minfp=0&maxfp=100&mintime=0&maxtime=75&minmargin=-99&maxmargin=99&sortby=fpt&sortorder=desc&mintoqual=0&mincat=att%2Brsh%2BrecThere's the rankings in non-ppr through week 12 (Forte was injured week 13) for running backs. He was 5th with a whopping ONE touchdown run inside the 10. He's already scored one from there through one game. How the hell does he not have top 3 upside?
umm, he doesn't get goal-line carries and is in a clear RBBC?Besides that, he clearly isn't on the level of Rice, ADP, MJD, Foster, DMcF, probably McCoy and CJ2K, and possibly Lynch and Gore in terms of the eye-ball test.He doesn't have top 3 upside, but he has enough going for him to warrant a low-end RB1 or high-end RB2 rating.
How is this different from last year?
Please define a RBBC for me. Ben Tate gets carries for Houston so I guess Foster is also in a RBBC?To say he isn't on the level of Lynch or Gore is absurd.If I was a Chris Johnson owner and someone offered me Matt Forte I would be stumbling trying to hit the accept button quick enough.
your crazy if you believe your own post! Makes me laugh really. Do some homework before you post like a fool here.. Forte is already upset and asking for some of the GL work and will be increasingly pissed if he doesn't start getting any. I bet they keep him happy with half of the GL work going forward he's quite capable of scoring inside the five yard line.. Who wants an unhappy RB1 and Lovie is known for keeping his players happy? Also he was about to get a GL TD when Cutler called the TO cuz he couldn't hear and Bush came out with him after that time out. Anyone who watched that game and feels hes a downgrade, I WANT IN MY LEAGUE PLEASE. He came very close to two long tds and those will be coming. To those in standard non ppr leagues, i don't play in those but aren't yards huge in those leagues? How many players put up 120 total yards last week?Im shocked some are some agreeing with this downgrade. Do you guys watch the games or play this hobby? Please TRADE me Forte cheap in every league possible ANYTIME soon.
Let me show you how it is different. I think the Forte fans are having selective memories about last year.In Game 1 this year, the carry distribution was Forte 16, Bush 12. Forte had 57% of the carries.
wow how could you ever type that Forte isnt as good as those RBs? Dam you would take Lynch over him, for real? Talk about under rated. Forte can be thought of as a top five NFL RB and in no particular order in my book. I am partial to McFadden as being the best when 100% healthy and on the field but Forte is right there with him imo maybe slightly behind just because of DMacs speed..I also feel Foster is at the top as well along with a few others.I must say that i started this thread on Forte but he has never been a favorite of mine and I have never owned him much FF wise but could see how talented and great a RB he is. I was just using common sense.
Barber didn't play the first three weeks of the season. During the 8 games Forte and Barber played, Forte had 163 carries and Barber had 63 or 72%. I said 65%. I messed up. In 2010, Matt Forte had 237 carries to Chester Taylor's 112 carries or 68% of those carries.
So, you are willing to draw a conclusion from one game? And please explain the similarity between 61% and 57% for week one of this year and last year.
72% is a ton of carries - that would rank near the top of the league.That's not a RBBC.Barber didn't play the first three weeks of the season. During the 8 games Forte and Barber played, Forte had 163 carries and Barber had 63 or 72%. I said 65%. I messed up. In 2010, Matt Forte had 237 carries to Chester Taylor's 112 carries or 68% of those carries.
sure. Let's define RBBC as a situation where multiple RB's have well defined, and different roles. Bush, and Barber before him, are goal-line, short yardage backs. Forte is a better overall back, and better in the passing game.Compare and contrast to Foster/Tate. What role does Tate have? Is he a 3rd down back? Goal-line back? receiving specialist? or is it more of a case of spelling Foster to keep him fresh?Don't get me wrong - IMO Forte > CJ. However, it would be foolish to forget that CJ2K's upside is, well, 2k yards and the best RB in football, it's all ready been demonstrated. Not sure I can fathom a scenario where Forte, with the workload as we understand it to be today, will ever be the best RB in football. Believe me - I'd like it to happen because I own him in several leagues, I just think it's a little insane to think he's a guy you draft on RB1 potential.
I am not drawing conclusions from one game. For last year I gave you every game Forte played and showed you that it was not a RBBC. Do you agree?For this year, we have Chicago signing Bush to a $14M contract in the offseason. We supposedly have the head coach saying he wants both guys to get 1000 yards (link). We have talk of RBBC all summer, and talk of Bush getting the goal line work. And all that was true in the first game.
I'm talking about the "eyeball" test - highlight producing, amazing runs, as well as potential to hit RB1. I can't believe it's worth debating. Can we at least agree that Foster, Rice, ADP, DmcF and MJD are clearly better than Forte? That's 5 guys right there who are clearly better.
No.http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/8255612/nfl-scouts-inc-2012-top-running-back-rankingsScouts Inc. has Forte tied for 5th with MJD at an 87 grade and one point behind McCoy, Foster and Rice, who are all tied for 2nd with an 88 grade.
I never said it was a RBBC. I simply said it's going to no different than it has been the previous two years. Maybe 65/35 but I also think they run the ball more with Tice as OC. Like I said before Forte was RB5 in NON-PPR prior to his injury with ONE TOUCHDOWN inside the 10 in 11 games. He has matched that total already. The conclusion that was drawn in the downgrade write up is what everyone assumed would happen this season, that Bush will get all of the goal line work. Forte being in the game inside the 10 yard line on three different possessions actually proves otherwise. Will Forte be a top 3 back? I don't know. But, if having top 3 upside means he has the potential to be a top 3 back then I have no idea how he doesn't have top 3 upside.72% is a ton of carries - that would rank near the top of the league.That's not a RBBC.Barber didn't play the first three weeks of the season. During the 8 games Forte and Barber played, Forte had 163 carries and Barber had 63 or 72%. I said 65%. I messed up. In 2010, Matt Forte had 237 carries to Chester Taylor's 112 carries or 68% of those carries.
And my point is that it is already different than it has been the past two years. Forte got the vast majority of carries last year. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I would bet that he was top 5 in percentage of carries by an RB (while he was healthy of course) last year. The only game all of last year that he had a worse percentage of carries than he had in game 1 this year was in week 12. Last year was not RBBC. This year is shaping up to be RBBC. I think that matters for his value.I never said it was a RBBC. I simply said it's going to no different than it has been the previous two years. Maybe 65/35 but I also think they run the ball more with Tice as OC. Like I said before Forte was RB5 in NON-PPR prior to his injury with ONE TOUCHDOWN inside the 10 in 11 games. He has matched that total already. The conclusion that was drawn in the downgrade write up is what everyone assumed would happen this season, that Bush will get all of the goal line work. Forte being in the game inside the 10 yard line on three different possessions actually proves otherwise. Will Forte be a top 3 back? I don't know. But, if having top 3 upside means he has the potential to be a top 3 back then I have no idea how he doesn't have top 3 upside.72% is a ton of carries - that would rank near the top of the league.That's not a RBBC.Barber didn't play the first three weeks of the season. During the 8 games Forte and Barber played, Forte had 163 carries and Barber had 63 or 72%. I said 65%. I messed up. In 2010, Matt Forte had 237 carries to Chester Taylor's 112 carries or 68% of those carries.
THISPeople need to take a deep breath and realize that Forte is going to be just fine this year...
Then why did he only have 16 carries last week?
He only had three games with less carries all of last year.
Yes, the Bears posted 41 points on the Colts with this new offense that you claim is going to get Forte a bunch more carries.But it only got him 16 carries.I'm not sure how that makes sense.
It makes sense because you rest your franchise running back when the game is a blowout? Is that contraversial?
I don't think that was the case here. Bush had 6 carries in each half. Forte had 9 carries in the first half and 7 in the second half.
For some perspective, that's 3.5 million a year for four years, but structured to give Bush a cap hit of $2.0 million this year by giving a base salary of $950,000 and a signing bonus of $4 mil. His base salary in 2014 rises to 2.8 mil and in 2015, the 3.55 million base salary is almost certainly money he'll never see as he will be a 31-year-old goal-line back counting $4.6 million against the cap that year. Which means he's cut unless this gets restructured. We're really talking about a 28-year-old goal-line back who counts exactly $2 mil against the cap this year. Which makes him just slightly less cap expensive than Kellen Davis and just slightly more expensive than Adam Podlesh. The punter. His cap hit is less than $100,000 more than LaRod Stephens-Howling this year. It's lower than Brandon Jackson in Cleveland. $400,000 less than John Kuhn. $800,000 less than Hillis. $1.37 million less than Leon Washington in Seattle. The amount of money Bush is getting isn't going to keep him on the field. When games are out of hand, he will get substantially more carries than when the Bears are fighting to win games.'FarEastKilla said:Don't be deceived by the putrid run defense of colts, Matt Forte's numbers from week1 is skewed, some of the claims made by his owners are outright over confident. Just watch Foster put up another 200+ yards on the Colts later this year.
I think people's problem is more that his situation is exactly what people were expecting. There is no surprise or change here. The fact that they finally realized after week 1 that Bush was going to cut into his goal line carries or that the new WR were going to cut into his receptions is a worry.I think close to half of peoples disagreements on rankings here are because they do not realize that basic FBG rankings are NOT for PPR leagues. In this case it makes a huge difference in how you value a player such as one in Fortes situation right now.
3 of Bush's carries were at the one yard line and 3 of his carries were with less than 5 minutes left and the Bears up by 20. Yet, we are sure it's a RBBC (which I don't even know the definition of). I'm going to continue to believe Forte will be in a 65/35 split until I see Bush routinely take whole possessions away from Forte during a close game.
Agreed. And yet last year, despite missing 4 games and most of a 5th, he was the #16 RB in my league, which is non-ppr. Including the game where he was injured halfway through the first quarter, Forte averaged over 13 ppg in 2011. If he had played the other four games and gotten half of that - 6.5 ppg - for those games, he's the #6 RB in my league last year.He's never been a goal-line back. Which is why it's weird to downgrade him now that the Bears have a really good goal-line back.
65/35 is possible. Last year Forte got 73%.
That solves the mystery of who's the better goal line running back. Here's the article from ESPN, http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth/post/_/id/46098/one-more-time-matt-forte-and-the-goal-lineThe most telling stat of the article, the one that actually matters, is that Forte was on the field for 56 snaps compared to 25 for Bush or 69% of the snaps. The situation is going to be no different than it has been. The only difference is that the running back Forte will be giving his extra carries to is actually decent.
Thats not the point- the point is that if the Bears are down by 3 against the Packers tonight in the fourth quarter, it will be Forte getting the touches (aside, probably, at the goalline).
