Drafting D-Willy and Stewart (1 Viewer)

[Team Canada]

I'm liking the idea of drafting both backs from Carolina if Ihave the right spot 9-12. I'm OK with having both on the field every week considering it is a 500 plus rushing team and the Oline is in great shape. They have made no big improvement in the passing game so the plan stays the same.

If one of em gets hurt or goes off (I think it will be Stewart) then you have the beast of the league.

Assuming a snake draft here. If you're drafting at the end of the order then you take D Willy in the first and pickup a top 5 WR on the turn in the 2nd. Now here is the hitch, hopefully Stewart makes it to your spot in the third. If so you pick him up and then take best available in the start of the 4th.

After 4 your team looks like this.

D Willy

Fitz,Moss, Wayne, or Megatron

Stewart

Rice, Boldin, either Steve Smith.

This plan is easy to modify on the fly on draft day.

Even if you have a little anxiety of holding both then you can easily go with the following.

Willy

Fitz,Moss, Wayne, or Megatron (depends on whether you have 9,10,11 or 12)

Stewart

Best RB available (McCoy, Pierre Thomas, Addai, Best)

This will force you to hold off on a QB or TE until the 5th or 6th.

I know everyone says don't set such a specific plan, but it's not like I'm playing RB roulette and drafting all the RBs from Bal or Dal for the 2009 season hoping someone will shine and the others bust. I would be happy to start both every week. I do think you would need your 3rd RB in the first 5 rounds. If you're drafting at the end of the order 5th round and 6th are essentially the same and you can plan around who you think will drop to you in the next round.

With this in mind I can focus on Favre, Cutler, Kolb and game plan for them.

The poor man's version of this is Miami. Strong rushing team but now have Marshall. For Brown and Ricky to won't have to pay as high draft picks, but I would be less comfortable starting both.

The reason this is so tempting is the strong offensive line and the dedication to the run. The other top rush attempt teams, Jets, Ten, Cin, Cle, Min, Bal, NO all have a clear number one or you would have to draft both and know one will fail (Thomas and Bush).

If Stewart is taken by the time you get back to him in the third then you have D Willy and Fitz. Not a bad 1-2 to start your team and nothing lost.

Shoot me down or praise me for brilliance, just think about it.

What the hell to I know though I'm from Canaada.

 

[pantherclub]

if only there was a thread about this

 

[footballman_696969]

I don't love this strategy because you can get much better RBs in the third round IMO. I"ve done a couple of mock drafts where I've ended up with both Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush. But I didn't plan to take them both in either of the drafts... I just felt they represented good value where I got them.

 

[pantherclub]

This has been discussed in about 10 threads so far but I will go ahead and tell you what the majority of folks on here will say. You are torpedoing your team if you do that. You will be so far behind the 8ball on wr's its not even funny. You will never start both of them and get the points back from your crappy stable of wr's. Even if one gets hurt that still doesnt cover you for the "wasted" pick in the 3rd. I wouldnt pick either Stewart(3rd) or Williams (1rst) because you just dont know what you are getting in terms of carries. I think Williams represents insane value in the 2nd and Stewart from the late 5th on.

 

[Team Legacy]

Firstly, I have not been involved in any draft that has seen Rice, Smith or Boldin to fall past the mid 3rd.

Secondly, you have to pass on a RB the calibre of McCoy, Green or Wells in the 3rd to land Stewy.

Turner, Mendenhall and Steven Jackson all seem like better options than DWill in the first seeing that they're the guaranteed main ball carrier in their offense.

 

[Chaka]

This kind of crazy thinking might work up in Canada but no way it flies in the United States.

 

[tazinib1]

This kind of crazy thinking might work up in Canada or Tijuanabut no way it flies in the United States.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

This has been discussed in about 10 threads so far but I will go ahead and tell you what the majority of folks on here will say. You are torpedoing your team if you do that. You will be so far behind the 8ball on wr's its not even funny. You will never start both of them and get the points back from your crappy stable of wr's. Even if one gets hurt that still doesnt cover you for the "wasted" pick in the 3rd. I wouldnt pick either Stewart(3rd) or Williams (1rst) because you just dont know what you are getting in terms of carries. I think Williams represents insane value in the 2nd and Stewart from the late 5th on.

I got Williams at 3.03 in a dynasty startup in progress right now http://football15.myfantasyleague.com/2010...=71625&O=17.

 

[Mr. Fusion]

Not sure if this is cited in the other threads on this topic, but this article http://footballguys.com/10stuart_players_jonathanstewart.php shows that is isn't a great idea to draft both with the intention of starting them both.

 

[tazinib1]

I got Williams at 3.03 in a dynasty startup in progress right now http://football15.myfantasyleague.com/2010...=71625&O=17.

Wow some crazy picks. Is this a $ league by chance? If so, count yourself in the money.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

I got Williams at 3.03 in a dynasty startup in progress right now http://football15.myfantasyleague.com/2010...=71625&O=17.

Wow some crazy picks. Is this a $ league by chance? If so, count yourself in the money.

Not a big money league, but yes, it's a $50 entry fee league. We can draft up to 4 college players for a max of 12 for the league, that's the reason for some of the crazy picks. I have one college player (Julio Jones). One guy drafted 4 of them in his first 6 picks. Never heard of someone throwing away a year during a startup draft.

 

[Team Canada]

Fair enough, thanks for the comments. I wish someone had talked me out of S-Jax and housh last year. Plan junked.

 

[SSOG]

Not sure if this is cited in the other threads on this topic, but this article http://footballguys.com/10stuart_players_jonathanstewart.php shows that is isn't a great idea to draft both with the intention of starting them both.

I don't know what article you're reading, but the article you linked to shows nothing of the sort. The article you linked to simply tried to measure whether starting a pair of teammates increases or decreases variance. In other words, if you started two teammates, would you be more likely to wind up with a lot of great weeks and a lot of terrible weeks... or a lot of average weeks? Would it make your lineup more or less consistent?The article's conclusions were that it didn't make your lineup any more or less consistent. The fact that they were teammates was, in other words, pretty much irrelevant. If DWill finishes the season as RB10, and JStew finishes as RB20, then you're about as well off starting Williams/Stewart as you would be starting a combination of RB9/RB21 or a combination of RB11/RB19.

The key to whether drafting both Williams and Stewart makes sense is simply their production. If you have Stewart and Shonn Greene both projected to get 1200 yards and 12 scores, and you draft DeAngelo in the 1st, then you're just as well off if you draft Stewart as you are if you draft Greene (assuming no injuries). There's no reason to favor Stewart, nor is there any reason to avoid him. In other words, take the back you have projected to be the best... and if he's the teammate of an RB you already own, then don't sweat it, take him anyway.

Now, all of this assumes no injuries to either starting RB. If you include the value jump that either Stewart or Williams would receive if the other got hurt, I could see an argument that Stewart has slightly more value to a Williams owner than he would to a non-Williams owner. I think that's a reasonable argument. I don't think the benefits of the pairing, though, amount to all that much added value. In other words... if I owned Williams and JStew was the best player left on the board, I would take him. If he wasn't, I wouldn't. Period, full stop.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Not sure if this is cited in the other threads on this topic, but this article http://footballguys.com/10stuart_players_jonathanstewart.php shows that is isn't a great idea to draft both with the intention of starting them both.

I don't know what article you're reading, but the article you linked to shows nothing of the sort. The article you linked to simply tried to measure whether starting a pair of teammates increases or decreases variance. In other words, if you started two teammates, would you be more likely to wind up with a lot of great weeks and a lot of terrible weeks... or a lot of average weeks? Would it make your lineup more or less consistent?The article's conclusions were that it didn't make your lineup any more or less consistent. The fact that they were teammates was, in other words, pretty much irrelevant. If DWill finishes the season as RB10, and JStew finishes as RB20, then you're about as well off starting Williams/Stewart as you would be starting a combination of RB9/RB21 or a combination of RB11/RB19.

The key to whether drafting both Williams and Stewart makes sense is simply their production. If you have Stewart and Shonn Greene both projected to get 1200 yards and 12 scores, and you draft DeAngelo in the 1st, then you're just as well off if you draft Stewart as you are if you draft Greene (assuming no injuries). There's no reason to favor Stewart, nor is there any reason to avoid him. In other words, take the back you have projected to be the best... and if he's the teammate of an RB you already own, then don't sweat it, take him anyway.

Now, all of this assumes no injuries to either starting RB. If you include the value jump that either Stewart or Williams would receive if the other got hurt, I could see an argument that Stewart has slightly more value to a Williams owner than he would to a non-Williams owner. I think that's a reasonable argument. I don't think the benefits of the pairing, though, amount to all that much added value. In other words... if I owned Williams and JStew was the best player left on the board, I would take him. If he wasn't, I wouldn't. Period, full stop.

Excellent post. I don't see any problem with drafting Williams early, then just waiting to see where the value is for #2 RB. If it happens to be Stewart, so be it, but I wouldn't go out of my way to get him until I thought he was below his value as a standalone player. If you don't overpay and happen to get Stewart, so much the better. In fact, you could try to stretch it. If you grab Williams, there is a decent chance a lot of folks will drop Stewart off of their radar. He may even end up as a VALUE on his own merit alone.I think Stewart's ADP may be a LITTLE high just so many people are using the "grab both" strategy and feel they need to get him before they "lose" him so they overdraft.

 

[SSOG]

I think Stewart's ADP may be a LITTLE high just so many people are using the "grab both" strategy and feel they need to get him before they "lose" him so they overdraft.

I think Stewart's ADP is probably right on the money, to be honest. According to the latest FBGs data, he's going as RB16. Assuming DWill stays healthy all year, I'd expect him to finish as RB20 or so with 160 fantasy points. That's pretty much what he produced as a rookie, and pretty much the pace he was producing at least year before DWill got hurt. Is Stewart's upside (top-5 RB in games Williams misses) worth bumping him up a couple of slots from his anticipated production? In my mind, yeah it is. Williams would probably only need to miss 2 games for Stewart to finish the season as RB16, and Drinen's demonstrated that the average RB only plays 14 games a season, so that seems reasonable. Now, of course, there's a difference between saying "RB16 is reasonable" and saying "I'd take him as the 16th RB off the board". That depends entirely on who else is left. If the right 15 RBs are gone, and I don't like the value at WR, TE, or QB, then I'd take Stewart as the 16th RB off the board. But the circumstances would have to be right. I wouldn't grab him just for the sake of grabbing him.I don't think it's the DWill owners that are driving up Stewart's ADP. If anything, I think there are a lot of people who think that Stewart is going to win the job outright, so naturally they're avoiding DWill, and those are the guys driving up Stewart's ADP.

 

[Tchula]

Glanced at a FF mag today (Usa today's I think). They actually had Stewart over Dwill. Very gutsy call.

 

[H8fulHuck]

Glanced at a FF mag today (Usa today's I think). They actually had Stewart over Dwill. Very gutsy call.

I don't have a problem with this IF the carries are split 50/50 as advertised and Stewart is slated for the goal line work.

 

[the spanker]

Glanced at a FF mag today (Usa today's I think). They actually had Stewart over Dwill. Very gutsy call.

I don't have a problem with this IF the carries are split 50/50 as advertised and Stewart is slated for the goal line work.

That scenario concerns me the most. I've looked at a few FF magazines and Dwill's value is all over the map. How much risk are you really taking by drafting Dwill in the first round after the top 5 RBs and AJ are probably gone?

 

[H8fulHuck]

Glanced at a FF mag today (Usa today's I think). They actually had Stewart over Dwill. Very gutsy call.

I don't have a problem with this IF the carries are split 50/50 as advertised and Stewart is slated for the goal line work.

That scenario concerns me the most. I've looked at a few FF magazines and Dwill's value is all over the map. How much risk are you really taking by drafting Dwill in the first round after the top 5 RBs and AJ are probably gone?

He could be a top 3 back, but more than likely he's just a solid starting RB. I'll likely draft a top WR before taking him in the first unless something changes in camp.

 

[the spanker]

Glanced at a FF mag today (Usa today's I think). They actually had Stewart over Dwill. Very gutsy call.

I don't have a problem with this IF the carries are split 50/50 as advertised and Stewart is slated for the goal line work.

That scenario concerns me the most. I've looked at a few FF magazines and Dwill's value is all over the map. How much risk are you really taking by drafting Dwill in the first round after the top 5 RBs and AJ are probably gone?

He could be a top 3 back, but more than likely he's just a solid starting RB. I'll likely draft a top WR before taking him in the first unless something changes in camp.

Thanks for your reply. Your right, best to wait until we get closer to the season and then re-evaluate his value to other positions.