What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Drafting with guppies - Part 2 (1 Viewer)

(HULK) said:
Sweetness_34 said:
(HULK) said:
Again, what RBs were still there at the 3/4 turn? TIA.
Click to expand...
Here you go:

RBs (in order) taken:

AP

Foster

Martin

Spiller

Lynch

McCoy

Charles

Ray Rice

TRich => My 1.11 pick

Morris

Forte => My 2.02 pick

MJD

Ridley

Frank Gore

Steven Jackson

Sproles

CJ3K

Reggie Bush

Demarco Murray

I picked Roddy White because I did not like anyone else at RB there. I do not like Wilson given it will be a full blown RBBC and I am not a Miller fan at all (especially given the Thomas news of another RBBC), and absolutely hate McFadden or Ryan Matthews. Was hoping Bush or Demarco would fall but they went 2 picks before me. No RB was selected by the team at 12th spot (he took Cruz and Cam); so I picked Amendola because again I did not like anyone at RB. I debated hard and long on Amendola vs Matt Ryan here. After Amendola, and before it got to me in the 5th:

Wilson (4.05)

McF(4.07)

Miller (4.09)

Mendy (5.03)

Matthews (5.06)

Once I picked Gronk at 5.11, Eddie Lacy went immediately after. I was hoping to get Lacy with my 6th pick but he was gone (and no way I was picking Lacy over Gronk in the 5th round).
Click to expand...
I'm strongly considering taking Lacy in the 4th in my league as I don't he comes to me in the 5th. I guess it depends on how his game goes this weekend.
Click to expand...
Harris is back to practicing. If it becomes a 60/40 split, given how much GB throws the ball, I would not want any part of Lacy

 
Even better reason to want Lacy now.

Sweetness doesn't like him.

I was also high on Jordy Nelson...but think I might bump him down some.

 
:tebow:

Now we just need to make sure we have access to the Yahoo game recaps and we are all set.

Better team than last year but certainly no shark team. RB depth is bad and I even like D-Rich. And you just have a lot of question marks on your team. More like a boom or bust team with some players who can't seem to stay healthy.

I'd take the AP/Peyton team (granted that is easier said than done with the first pick) but I'd agree with this sentiment that you overthink your picks based on value and fail to take into account your drafts tendency often leading you to get shut out of certain positions. Yes, QBBC could work but in a supposed guppy league, I'd want more than Vick/Cutler.

 
Sweetness_34 said:
mbuehner said:
Sweetness_34 said:
Getting the thread back on track. One of the problems playing in such leagues is that some other owners land up with really strong teams too, especially when they are lucky to draw a pick early and then they get to exploit others mistakes.

For eg - last night the 1.01 owner lands up with following 6 picks as his top 6 - AP; Sproles; Peyton; Reggie Wayne; Welker; Mike Wallace

This happens because guppies take Colin Kapernick at 1.03 letting Peyton get back to the AP owner. Now this 1.01 owner is horrible himself - he drafted Harvin; Pitta and Danario although it says IR next to Pitta and Danario.... But getting those top 6 picks in a PPR and 6 pts passing TD league is just crap for the rest of us

Moral of story - when guppies make mistakes it helps other owners too
Click to expand...
Well... yeah. Which is why you shouldn't be trying for style points by grabbing a QB late. Professionals are predictable, but the world is full of amateurs.

Honestly Sweetness, I appreciate what you do and i love this thread. Here's my diagnosis of your mistakes though- you are too aware that you are playing with guppies and it affects your judgement. Instead of taking the best talent and making the obvious moves, you act too clever because you know you know more and want to prove it. The Gronk pick was a gift. Well and good, but your couldn't have predicted it, so you can hardly take credit. He could have gone in the first round with this crew. Its like poker- the best play is the best play, even if you get outdrawn. All things being equal you should have missed Gronk (2 rounds past his ADP) and your team REALLY looks bad.
Click to expand...
If Gronk and Witten were not there at my 5th pick, I was taking QB. I said it before, I thought about taking Ryan with my 4th round pick, but just could not miss out on Amendola as my WR2.
Click to expand...
This is my point- the way this draft is going, finding a WR2 should be the least of your worries (and not difficult to do). Amendola is a great player, you got him at about his ADP. But the way this draft is going, ADP is totally out the window. All you have to do is look at the QBs and RBs off the board and its pretty clear that there are gonna be plenty of WR2s of Amendolas general projection available for you. You clearly fell in love with Jordy and Gronk being available where you found them, and that's not a good way to draft either.

My point is, the difference between WR13 and WR24 is probably going to be about a point per game or less (ignoring injuries). I get that you think you've got 3 WRs that are going to be in the top 10, but NOBODY is so good at this game that they can say that with anything like confidence. All things being equal, you take the guys you believe will be the best (obviously) when given equivalent choices, but its not smart to plan your overall draft strategy predicated on the guys you are drafting vastly outperforming their draft position (and consensus projections). Too many things all have to go your way, and if any dont, youre screwed.

You claim you dont need depth at RB, but thats magical thinking too. You've (sorta) accounted for injury... but have you accounted for just sucking? Whats plan B if Bush is getting all the touchdowns and Forte all the yards? What if TRich has a sophomore slump or tweaks an ankle- he doesnt get benched but just doesn't produce? You took a chance on DRich and thats good, but you really needed to buy a couple more scratchoffs in that region to have any real chance of hitting gold. And, again, you did all that in order to secure Danny Amendola and Jordy Nelson... not exactly Calvin Johnson. If your roster said Marques Colston and Torrey Smith instead almost nobody looking at it would even notice the difference.

 
mbuehner said:
Sweetness_34 said:
mbuehner said:
Sweetness_34 said:
Getting the thread back on track. One of the problems playing in such leagues is that some other owners land up with really strong teams too, especially when they are lucky to draw a pick early and then they get to exploit others mistakes.

For eg - last night the 1.01 owner lands up with following 6 picks as his top 6 - AP; Sproles; Peyton; Reggie Wayne; Welker; Mike Wallace

This happens because guppies take Colin Kapernick at 1.03 letting Peyton get back to the AP owner. Now this 1.01 owner is horrible himself - he drafted Harvin; Pitta and Danario although it says IR next to Pitta and Danario.... But getting those top 6 picks in a PPR and 6 pts passing TD league is just crap for the rest of us

Moral of story - when guppies make mistakes it helps other owners too
Click to expand...
Well... yeah. Which is why you shouldn't be trying for style points by grabbing a QB late. Professionals are predictable, but the world is full of amateurs.

Honestly Sweetness, I appreciate what you do and i love this thread. Here's my diagnosis of your mistakes though- you are too aware that you are playing with guppies and it affects your judgement. Instead of taking the best talent and making the obvious moves, you act too clever because you know you know more and want to prove it. The Gronk pick was a gift. Well and good, but your couldn't have predicted it, so you can hardly take credit. He could have gone in the first round with this crew. Its like poker- the best play is the best play, even if you get outdrawn. All things being equal you should have missed Gronk (2 rounds past his ADP) and your team REALLY looks bad.
Click to expand...
If Gronk and Witten were not there at my 5th pick, I was taking QB. I said it before, I thought about taking Ryan with my 4th round pick, but just could not miss out on Amendola as my WR2.
Click to expand...
This is my point- the way this draft is going, finding a WR2 should be the least of your worries (and not difficult to do). Amendola is a great player, you got him at about his ADP. But the way this draft is going, ADP is totally out the window. All you have to do is look at the QBs and RBs off the board and its pretty clear that there are gonna be plenty of WR2s of Amendolas general projection available for you. You clearly fell in love with Jordy and Gronk being available where you found them, and that's not a good way to draft either.

My point is, the difference between WR13 and WR24 is probably going to be about a point per game or less (ignoring injuries). I get that you think you've got 3 WRs that are going to be in the top 10, but NOBODY is so good at this game that they can say that with anything like confidence. All things being equal, you take the guys you believe will be the best (obviously) when given equivalent choices, but its not smart to plan your overall draft strategy predicated on the guys you are drafting vastly outperforming their draft position (and consensus projections). Too many things all have to go your way, and if any dont, youre screwed.

You claim you dont need depth at RB, but thats magical thinking too. You've (sorta) accounted for injury... but have you accounted for just sucking? Whats plan B if Bush is getting all the touchdowns and Forte all the yards? What if TRich has a sophomore slump or tweaks an ankle- he doesnt get benched but just doesn't produce? You took a chance on DRich and thats good, but you really needed to buy a couple more scratchoffs in that region to have any real chance of hitting gold. And, again, you did all that in order to secure Danny Amendola and Jordy Nelson... not exactly Calvin Johnson. If your roster said Marques Colston and Torrey Smith instead almost nobody looking at it would even notice the difference.
Click to expand...
Point taken.... but I will agree to dis agree. Amendola will be very consistent in PPR .....players like Colston, Torrey Smith, Steve Smith, Mike Wallace will not. Also, Amendola has the upside to be top 5 in a PPR, as we have seen with Welker, while these other WRs have no such upside. Amendola is capable of catching 100+ catches in that offense with the talent to catch more TDs than Welker ever did in a given year.

Also, I see no chance of Trich or Forte sucking in a PPR league barring injury, given both players are talented at running and catching the ball and both play for coaches that are clearly going to emphasize it (Trestman and Norv), based on historical evidence and their own quotes this off season. I consider Forte's floor to be what he did last year and he still finished 11th in my league scoring (pretty std PPR scoring). Also TRich finished 7th last year in scoring and I expect TRich to do much better than last year at least in terms of yardage and catches. Not sure if he will get the same TDs since TDs are impossible for anyone to project, but in general, Cleveland should be better on both O and D, which would mean closer games and more chances at the goal line. Both Baltimore and Steelers have slipped since last year meaning Cleveland should compete in those games.

As for Forte and Bush being in some sort of RBBC, last year Bush did steal the TDs and yet Forte was pretty solid and consistent (barring missing a few games to injury) - again he finished 11th last year. In fact, all other RBs that you are asking me to pick for depth have worst issues - every one of these will be in a RBBC - Hillman/Ball; Wilson/Brown; Miller/Thomas and McFadden, Matthews, DeAngelo W just suck even if they do not land up on a RBBC. I am just not a fan of any RB going in the 3rd to 5th rounds this year, except I liked Bell, but given he got injured before the draft, that took care of that. I was open to taking Mendenhall in the 6th, but the lady/Niners fan took him at 5.3. Sorry I will never take Mendy over Amendola in a PPR league in the 4th round just to create some RB depth that I doubt will help me win anything. Creating RB depth for the sake of creating RB depth is what craters most teams, and this is coming from someone who has taken RB RB in 5 of my 6 drafts this year. I think the RBs have to be taken in the top 2 rounds this year because everyone after that is just in a bad situation or has too many talent or injury issues. The reason I did pick DRich is because, again, even if he runs the ball 10 to 15 times a game (which is what I think will be his ceiling in a given game), he has the potential to catch 3 to 5 passes a game and that will help with his floor in a PPR league.

I really do appreciate your feedback, Buehner! Time will tell if my strategy works or not. I did put it here before the season starts. If my team sucks, you can join the gang and act all know-it-all.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
My friend asked me to join him in a Yahoo $20 league and I found that when drafting with casual friends or peeps doing FFL for the in vogue reason you will see these kinds of drafts.

Not having drafted in a 10 man league in 10 years and with some owners drafting their complete lineups by the 9-10th rnd I was "surprised" at the value all around me during my picks. I think these leagues are for fun and I personally wouldnt consider any of these as being competitive. Wait till you see some of the trades that go on over there.

I associate the original premise of the article written I believe by Dodds years ago to the saying when you sit down for a poker game and after 15 minutes you dont know who the sucker at the table is, then it is you.

 
There is always this assumption that the Patriots offense will distribute the ball this year similarly to last year regardless of personnel. Looking over Brady's career, its the opposite. He feeds players, not positions.

 
So you passed on Matt Ryan, Stafford, Russell Wilson, Romo, RG3 and Luck at the turn of the 4th for... Amendola?

I get that maybe he has a bit more upside with everything going on in NE, but that's a pretty big sacrifice for something not even close to being a lock, especially considering his injury history.

 
G5781 said:
Just like all movie sequels, this will be a let down. Nothing could replicate the awesomeness of last years thread.
Click to expand...
Was just going to post the same thing. How the hell did I miss this thread's creation a week ago? Oh well. In now.

 
We had a replacement owner in our local draft on Sunday. Real loudmouth type, but had never played FF before. It's the middle of the fifth round and he blurts out "IS GRONKOWSKI EVEN PLAYING WEEK ONE?!?!". Silence.........."Uh, I don't think so...."

Someone warned him that name-dropping is not cool during a draft, but the jackass kept slamming beers and doing it anyway. "JOSH GORDON. HUH. HE'S SUSPENDED RIGHT??!?!". Big stupid meathead, I so wanted to kick his ###.

 
McGarnicle said:
We had a replacement owner in our local draft on Sunday. Real loudmouth type, but had never played FF before. It's the middle of the fifth round and he blurts out "IS GRONKOWSKI EVEN PLAYING WEEK ONE?!?!". Silence.........."Uh, I don't think so...."

Someone warned him that name-dropping is not cool during a draft, but the jackass kept slamming beers and doing it anyway. "JOSH GORDON. HUH. HE'S SUSPENDED RIGHT??!?!". Big stupid meathead, I so wanted to kick his ###.
Click to expand...
Me too, and I wasn't even there.

 
Sweetness_34 said:
Just because they were rookies last year does not automatically mean they will score more pts this year. D coordinators will have more footage to plan for shortie. And Sea was lucky to have no relevant injuries last year. Highly doubt that happens again - losing Harvin means they are no better than last year talent wise.
Click to expand...
I kept telling myself that about shortie last year while he was on our waiver wire and I was starting Flacco.......all he did was get better every week, had I just picked him up I would have won my league. I'm done betting against that little dude.....not making the same mistake this year.

 
Soo...whats the results? Looks like Niner fan that Sweetness loves to hate probably put up a pretty good showing this week.

 
2-0... beat the best team in the league who got the lucky #1 draft spot and landed AP; Sproles; Reggie Wayne; Welker; Boldin; Cook etc

 
Thread title should be changed to horribly drafting in a guppy league but making up for it with weekly transactions and trades

 
Sweetness_34 said:
My team:

QB: Vick (10); Cutler (11); Freeman (12)

RB: Trent Richardson (1); Forte (2); Daryl Richardson (7); Mike Bush (13)

WR: Roddy White (3); Amendola (4); Jordy Nelson (6); Miles Austin (8); Chris Givens (9)

TE: Gronk (5); Brandon Myers (14)

K: Greg Zuerlien (16)

D: Bucs (15); Chiefs (17)

Yahoo gave me a A- for the draft.,...

Have at it....let the fun begin!!!
Click to expand...
Don't quit your day job. That is awful. I imagine the A- was for effort....not for the actual quality of that draft.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
It's a little disingenuous to draft a team full of players like Amendola, Austin, Vick and Gronk and then complain about injuries. Also did I read that right? Blackmon was actually available on waivers after week 5? I think a true shark would have made that add prior to his first blowup game if not drafted him with a late pick and stashed him for 4 weeks.

 
Good job beating that lady who drafts all 49ers this week. :thumbup:

Da Bearssss (5-4, 1,115.52 points) climbs into fifth place and mama's 49er faithful (6-3, 1,107.30 points) stays in second place.

Da Bearssss would be 46-53 if they played every team every week.
Click to expand...
 
Read in another thread that the OP is in 4 FFPC leagues. Don't know how to process that information, but I really want to know more.

 
Sweetness_34 said:
...

Just to give you guys some context on how bad some team members are, here are 2 teams (one of them is the Niner fan lady from last year):

Niner Fan:

Qb: Kap (1); Luck (7)

RB: Gore (2); Mendy (5); Jacquizz Rodgers (11); Fred Jackson (12); Zac Stacy (15); Bilal Powell (17)

WR: Demaryus Thomas (3); Golden Tate (6); Hilton (8); Sidney Rice (10); Dobson (13)

TE: Vernon Davis (4); Celek (16)

D: Pats (9)

K; Tucker (14)

...
Click to expand...
I'm curious how 9er Lady is doing.

Draft a Stacy or Dobson and then holding until now sounds pretty good to me.

And a starting duo of Gore & FJax may be good. Powell &Quizz had their moments.

Starting K'nick all year (as a 9er fan) instead of Luck may have hurt her?

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

TXHoossBall
No TE league Help (Picking 6th)
Replies
0
Views
110
TXHoossBall
TXHoossBall
K
Team Draft Strategy: Hero RB vs. Heavier RB (PPR)
Replies
17
Views
756
Gally
G
Gottabesweet
Official 5th Pick PPR (Redraft) thread
Replies
24
Views
854
5-ish Finkle
5-ish Finkle

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 2 (members: 0, guests: 2)
Top