TheWick
Footballguy
Thats strange...I admit I didn't watch him much this year but in his bowl game I would say his comparison is Ronnie Brown. I guess we'll have to see how he measures out.
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[DYNASTY] 2010 Top 20 Rookies (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter EBF
- Start date
EBF
Footballguy
Pretty good Dwyer video here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KCvtegF9ssM
Don't see how anyone who watches it could disagree with the assessment that he's worth a late first round pick.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KCvtegF9ssM
Don't see how anyone who watches it could disagree with the assessment that he's worth a late first round pick.
A
awesomeness
Guest
Taking a quick glance of the prospect rankings at walterfootball and it becomes pretty clear that guy doesn't know what he's doing. He's got guys like Demaryious Thomas and Dezmon Briscoe behind guys like Andre Roberts of Citadel, and Shay Hodge. He also has Brandon Banks and Trindon Holliday (who both happen to weigh less than 150lbs) ahead of Mike Williams and Freddie Barnes.
Hendo
Footballguy
if this kid gets drafted by the chargers look out... i'm not seeing what the nay sayers keep preaching with him and this three point stance bs. hes got the prototype build for the position and this opinion of him looking soft is no where to be seen by these eyes at all. He runs hard, runs with power and from the clips i saw he has very very good speed for a big back.id rather take a gamble with Dwyer and Mathews then Spiller or Best any day on sunday. I for one cant wait to see this play out and which team all four go to cause there is so much controversy with all four top backs this year.
honestly here whats not to like about a 5'10 235lb RB with fluid hips and tree trunk legs that can kick it up and run with DB's? Keep preaching nay sayers ... keep preaching please.
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GreatLakesMike
Footballguy
I've only watched Dwyer a few times, but I came away unimpressed. He has long speed galore, especially for a big back, but it seems like it takes him a half hour to get moving.
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
I'm not sure what it is but I've notice a difference in speed when comparing this year to last year. Not really sure what it is he just look like a different back.ETA: It wouldn't surprise me if Ryan Matthews has a good combine that he vault to up the charts and pass Dwyer or even Best.
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Michael Fox Fan
Footballguy
Had the same reaction. Doesn't have very good short burst, takes forever to get moving, no ability to cut laterally. I have zero interest in drafting him.
Maroney=Speed
Footballguy
You wrote this about Tate: He's both short and slow. Poor burst off the line of scrimmage.The only thing that could potentially change my mind would be a great 40 time at the combine.He'd better. That's the only way he'll succeed in the NFL at 5'10". Speed and explosiveness are not Tate's strengths. They are the biggest question marks about his game (in addition to size). He needs a good 40 time as much as any WR in the draft. Very curious to see how he tests in a few weeks.I'd pretty much be willing to make a gentlemen's bet that he runs faster and jumps higher than Dez Bryant......
If he runs a 4.5 or better your break down would been way wrong.
By the way I still think your way wrong about Bradford. Enjoy your write up and nobody gets them all right.
Question overall class= Weak,strong or ? How would you rank this class vs. past year's? Equals to what past class?
rabidfireweasel
Footballguy
He won't be the second coming of Wes Welker unless he plays in NE. Welker is unbelievable at changing directions and has tremendous footwork; however, this doesn't make him the wr that he is. He excels, in large part, because he is a system where he often doesn't even run a route. He is allowed, because of his intelligence, preparation, and connection to his QB, to make site reads of the defense (Brady and Cassel made the same pre-snap reads) and he can then simply run to the anticipated open area. Very few wr's, regardless of their skill set are allowed that sort of freedom in any offense.
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
While I agree with this to an extent....he doesn't have entire freedom. Offenses that I personally know do things similiar...such as LSU. Where the slot an run a curl, slant, out, in, or hitch up in the area between defenders. Which sounds like freedom...but they can't run a go...right into another WR's route...which Welker should know through preparation. Just wanted to give a bit more clarification. But I agree b/c of Scheme is the reason welker has thrived.
Matt's Eagles
Footballguy
Don't remember where I got this write up but it was in my Clef notes for our upcoming dynasty rookie draft. It gives some stats/comparisons of some available wr/rbs.
Running backs are one of a few positions where rookies can come in and contribute immediately. Problem is, this draft class isn't exactly loaded with top-tier running backs. But there are still a few worth monitoring.
1. C.J. Spiller, Clemson, 5-11, 195 lbs
2009 rushing stats: 216 carries, 1,212 yards, 12 TDs
2009 receiving stats: 36 catches, 503 yards, 4 TDs
NFL comparison: Felix Jones
Projected draft position: Top 15 overall
Jan. 13 analysis: Dazzling. Explosive. Electrifying. Gamebreaking.
Pick your favorite adjective, and each one (and then some) probably applies to Spiller. He is one of a few players who would pretty much force you to keep the TV on that channel when Clemson's offense had the ball since he has a legitimate chance at taking every single carry or screen pass to the house. He shared carries on offense, but also played a major role in returning kicks on special teams, so he can really bring value to a few different areas for whatever NFL team chooses to select him.
The only knock on Spiller is his size, but don't let that fool you. He has still shown the ability to break tackles (if he didn't elude them altogether beforehand). Spiller has excellent speed and, for lack of a better description, knows how to balance his center of gravity well - if that makes sense. That means a solid tackle is usually required to bring him down, and one tackler may not be enough to do the job. He is capable of playing as an every-down back, and I wouldn't be shocked if he outperforms his expectations in his rookie campaign. Definitely someone to keep an eye on during training camps.
2. Jahvid Best, California, 5-10, 195 lbs
2009 rushing stats: 141 carries, 867 yards, 12 TDs
2009 receiving stats: 22 catches, 213 yards, 4 TDs
NFL comparison: Knowshon Moreno
Projected draft position: Top 20 overall
Jan. 13 analysis: Best and Spiller could very well be 1a and 1b for RB rankings since both of them are gamebreakers. You may have seen the endless replays of Best getting KO'd on his touchdown run against Oregon St., which ended his season prematurely. It's a shame since he was on pace for a mighty impressive season.
Best's most impressive characteristic is his ability to cut back and change directions in an instant. He doesn't seem to lose any speed while making his cutbacks, and that makes him a very difficult player to chase down and tackle in the open field. The fit which would allow him to excel the most would probably be a team which runs a zone blocking scheme since he somehow seems to hit fifth gear the instant his quarterback hands him the ball. He only needs a tiny hole to be created in the line, and he's more than capable of shooting through it. He may need to learn a tad more patience and allow his blocks to develop for a few more fractions of a second at the pro level, but he could be a highly dangerous home run threat with even mediocre blocking in front of him in the pros.
3. Jonathan Dwyer, Georgia Tech, 6-0, 228 lbs
2009 rushing stats: 235 carries, 1,395 yards, 14 TDs
2009 receiving stats: 5 catches, 37 yards, 0 TDs
NFL comparison: Frank Gore
Projected draft position: Second round
Jan. 13 analysis: Georgia Tech's Paul Johnson runs a very old school triple option offense, which really limits the potential NFL value of some of his players. Running back isn't one of them, fortunately. If anything, running backs coming from a system such as this one need to be smarter than ones which come from "just grab the ball and smash your way through as many defenders as you possibly can" types. A triple option attack relies on precise synchronization and timing, and the slightest misstep or confusion can spell disaster for the play.
Dwyer rushed for over 100 yards in seven of the 14 games the Yellow Jackets played this past season. He's a physical back who can break long runs and shed tackles. The adjustment to a more standard pro offense shouldn't be a big deal for him. If he can post a strong 40-time at the combine, he could sneak into the bottom of the first round.
4. Toby Gerhart, Stanford, 6-1, 233 lbs
2009 rushing stats: 343 carries, 1,871 yards, 27 TDs
2009 receiving stats: 11 catches, 157 yards, 0 TDs
NFL comparison: Ray Rice
Projected draft position: Second round
Jan. 13 analysis: Another guy who could improve his stock with a solid combine. Unless you despise Stanford, you have to have enjoyed watching him run the ball. Gerhart is a prototypical workhorse running back who does an excellent job at shedding tacklers and gaining yards after initial contact - in fact, he probably does it better than any other running back in college football. Gerhart always seems to be moving forward and finds some way to squeeze every inch of yardage out of each carry. He has a relentless motor and seems to actually gain strength as his game progresses, almost like a video game character who finds some kind of energy pellet on the field and consumes it.
5. Anthony Dixon, Mississippi State, 6-1, 240 lbs
2009 rushing stats: 257 carries, 1,391 yards, 12 TDs
2009 receiving stats: 18 catches, 123 yards, 0 TDs
NFL comparison: Michael Turner
Projected draft position: Third round
Jan. 13 analysis: Who says slow is a bad thing? Dixon is anything but a speed demon. His running style is rather deliberate, and he probably wouldn't even care if the defense knew where his play was headed before the snap. Why? Because he seems to enjoy initiating contact with whichever defensive backs dare to tackle him. That's probably a big reason he owns almost every meaningful Bulldogs rushing record there is.
Dixon began the '09 season with 92 rushing yards against Auburn, then ripped off five straight 100-plus yard games on the ground. Unfortunately, he was cited for driving under the influence before the season began. The whole incident was a disaster - he was given citations for careless driving and driving without insurance, and his refusal to take a breathalyzer test made an already bad sitiation worse. This will be an obvious red flag for so many NFL general managers are weighing character issues more and more as they decide when to draft a given player. If it's a tossup between Dixon and a squeaky clean prospect, well ... sorry, Anthony. Most GMs will probably opt for the choir boys.
6. Charles Scott, LSU, 5-11, 230 lbs
NFL comparison: LenDale White
2009 rushing stats: 116 carries, 542 yards, 4 TDs
2009 receiving stats: 8 catches, 54 yards, 0 TDs
Projected draft position: Late second/Early third round
Jan. 13 analysis: Scott, like Gerhart, is the kind of running back who will wear defenses down over the course of a game. His speed is decent, but he's not the type of back who is going to break many huge runs. That's what'll prevent him from becoming a featured back in the NFL. Instead, he's the back which defenders don't want to tackle anymore as the game moves into the later stages. You'll see Scott's name called for short-yardage carries in frigid temperatures when his offense needs to pick up short yardage on third down.
7. Joe McKnight, USC, 6-0, 228 lbs
2009 rushing stats: 164 carries, 1,014 yards, 8 TDs
2009 receiving stats: 22 catches, 146 yards, 0 TDs
NFL comparison: Laurence Maroney
Projected draft position: Third round
Jan. 13 analysis: Maybe it's just me, but it seems like only yesterday when McKnight committed to USC. He's more of a big time playmaker, but not someone who is capable of carrying the ball 20-25 times per game and gaining yardage each time.
McKnight improved his rushing yardage total in three straight seasons at USC, which was good. Curiously, his receiving yardage decreased each season despite the fact that his receptions totals were almost equal in each of those three years. When he was on his game, McKnight was a force. Unfortunately, he had a bad habit of disappearing on occasion, and the sketchy details surrounding his allegedly illegal acceptance of a benefit (the use of an SUV in this case) might drop his stock among those prickly general managers who target "character guys" that I mentioned above. McKnight really would have done himself a world of good to stay in school for another year, but he joined a few others in abandoning the sinking Trojan ship.
8. Ryan Mathews, Fresno State, 5-11, 220 lbs
2009 rushing stats: 276 carries, 1,808 yards, 19 TDs
2009 receiving stats: 11 catches, 122 yards, 0 TDs
NFL comparison: Ryan Grant
Projected draft position: Third round
Jan. 13 analysis: Never heard of him before? You will. Mathews is absolutely someone you want to keep your eye on, because his draft stock could change radically between now and April if he puts in a good combine and pro day.
Let's get this one out of the way early: there were only two games all season long where Mathews didn't top 100 rushing yards. One in which he was injured in the first quarter, and the other that he missed altogether. That's it. Every single time he received a full workload, he was an absolute force for the Bulldogs. He 151.3 yards per game on the ground, which was the best of any running back in the nation. He has a neat knack for seeing the play develop, then turning on the afterburners at precisely the right second to hit a hole and turn a run into a big gain.
Fresno St. has never been a team which shies away from tough competition. Be that as it may, having spent his college years in the WAC won't help Mathews' cause a great deal. Still, this guy is the real deal. If I had to put my life on any of these guys improving their draft stock the most, Mathews would likely be my pick.
9. Dexter McCluster, Mississippi, 5-7, 168 lbs
2009 rushing stats: 181 carries, 1,169 yards, 8 TDs
2009 receiving stats: 44 catches, 520 yards, 3 TDs
NFL comparison: Darren Sproles
Projected draft position: Third/Fourth round
Jan. 13 analysis: McCluster is hands-down the fastest RB I've ever seen play at any level, including Chris Johnson. How's that for an attention grabber?
He reminds me quite a bit of Johnson since he looks like he's running about three speeds faster than anyone else on the field, as if some tech geek was able to speed him up in the picture frame while slowing everyone else down. He has lightning quick cuts when he changes directions in traffic, and even good defenders sometimes looks like statues when he blazes by them. Before they even figure out what he's going to do, he's long gone.
So, why won't we hear his name called on Day 1? Because he has the physique of Gilligan when compared to NFL counterparts. There's just no way a guy can withstand men twice his weight crunching him into the ground play after play, week after week. McCluster will make plays when he gets the ball in space. It's just a matter of how often he'll see the field. If he found a genie in a bottle who could wave his wand and add 50 pounds of bulk without sacrificing any speed, McCluster would be a candidate to go No. 1 overall. I'm not kidding.
10. Montario Hardesty, Tennessee, 6-0, 215 lbs
2009 rushing stats: 282 carries, 1,345 yards, 13 TDs
2009 receiving stats: 25 catches, 302 yards, 1 TD
NFL comparison: Jonathan Stewart
Projected draft position: Fourth round
Jan. 13 analysis: Hardesty takes nice, long strides when he runs with the ball, which lets him use his above average speed to gain a few extra inches with each step. NFL Scouts will realize those extra inches could add up over the course of a game.
Anyone who has seen Hardesty run knows of the nifty spin move he uses to elude defenders, but it's just not going to work as easily at the NFL level. My main gripe is he sometimes waits a little too long to let a play develop, even through running backs are sometimes put in a position where they need to create something out of nothing on their own. Easier said than done, sure. But Hardesty just isn't someone who I can see as an every-down back.
There may be one player who could work himself into such a position if he blows everyone away at the combine and his pro day. Let's start in Stillwater.
1. Dez Bryant, Oklahoma St., 6-2, 220 lbs
2009 receiving stats: None
NFL comparison: Terrell Owens
Projected draft position: Top 15 overall
Jan. 20 analysis: The best we can go on for Bryant is his 2008 season when he had 87 catches for 1,480 yards and 19 touchdowns. Not bad, is it? Sort of sounds like the stuff top wideouts are made of. Bryant plays taller than he really is and knows how to use his body to shield defenders from the ball. Just about every one of his characteristics matches what you'd want in a prototypical receiver. So why aren't we talking about him as a top-five overall pick?
Bryant was suspended for the entire 2009 season after "failing to fully disclose the extent of his conversation with Deion Sanders." Translation: he may have had some improper and premature dealings with an "agent." I don't know what PrimeTime could have said that would constitute something illegal, but that's the NCAA for you. However, none of that changes the fact that Bryant is a highly dangerous receiver who could really develop into an elite talent at the pro level. The fact that he's been out of action for some time is probably the only thing that'll lower his draft stock. But if he somehow slips down to a team with an already solid passing attack in the draft, he could be someone to keep an eye on for fantasy purposes.
2. Golden Tate, Notre Dame, 5-11, 195 lbs
2009 receiving stats: 93 catches, 1,496 yards, 15 TDs
NFL comparison: Roddy White
Projected draft position: Late first round
Jan. 20 analysis: Tate may not have the largest frame, but he made an impact on a weekly basis. Not many defensive backs at the college level could contain him one-on-one. Tate was held out of the end zone only twice all season long. He finished the year by catching at least one touchdown pass in each of his last eight games (culminating with a 201-yard, three-TD game agaisnt Stanford). If Tate somehow slips to the second round, whichever team lands him may have struck gold. The problem is if he does, he's likely to get taken high in the second round, meaning he's going to go to a lousy team. But he certainly has the physical tools to make an immediate impact at the NFL level. It's just a question of which team selects him.
3. Brandon LaFell, LSU, 6-3, 206 lbs
2009 receiving stats: 57 catches, 792 yards, 11 TDs
NFL comparison: Santana Moss
Projected draft position: Second round
Jan. 20 analysis: LaFell isn't the type of receiver who is going to wow you with stats on a weekly basis, but he also finds a way to make an impact each week. He is a fearless wideout who doesn't mind throwing everything he has into making an acrobatic catch. The good news is LaFell had at least 48 yards in every game last season, which means he's not the type of guy who will disappear every so often and leave you enraged. That kind of consistency will go a long way in the eyes of GMs and scouts who are on the fence about whether to draft him. He'll need to add a little bulk, but that can be done during his first training camp.
4. Arrelious Benn, Illinois, 6-2, 220 lbs
2009 receiving stats: 38 catches, 490 yards, 2 TDs
NFL comparison: Anquan Boldin
Projected draft position: Second round
Jan. 20 analysis: If you've watched Benn play, you can see the talent is there. The problem is Illinois ran a goofy version of a spread offense, and Juice Williams didn't look anything like the quarterback he once was. His passing was highly erratic all season long, which obviously limits Benn's ablility to post numbers.
But Benn has good size and blocking ability. You'll see it a lot more clearly at the pro level when he'll have a QB who can get him the ball. Here's a classic example of a player who will make more of an impact at the pro level than he did in college.
5. Danario Alexander, Missouri, 6-5, 215 lbs
2009 receiving stats: 113 catches, 1,781 yards, 14 TDs
NFL comparison: Calvin Johnson
Projected draft position: Late third/Early Fourth round
Jan. 20 analysis: Looking purely at his numbers, it's clear Alexander can play. You don't post that kind of production in the Big 12 without the ability to make big plays from start to finish. The problem is Alexander's speed, or lack thereof. He can outrun defenders in space, but he looks like the kind of wideout who can get caught from behind by a defensive back with even mediocre speed. He's just too tall and lanky to ever become a true WR1 at the NFL level. That doesn't mean he won't be a nice red zone target for whoever drafts him, though. Let's see how good of a 40-time he posts at the combine. My personal over/under is set at 4.6.
6. Mardy Gilyard, Cincinnati, 6-1, 187 lbs
2009 receiving stats: 87 catches, 1,191 yards, 11 TDs
NFL comparison: Josh Cribbs
Projected draft position: Late second/Early third round
Jan. 20 analysis: Gilyard is the kind of guy who you love to have on your team and hate going against. He's a little too light to become a prototypical WR1, but give him the ball in space and he can make things happen - think Percy Harvin. The majority of his yardage came after he caught the ball, and he is also a terror to defend on special teams. Look at how much of an impact Josh Cribbs made for the Browns. Gilyard is the type of player who can do exactly the same thing.
7. Damian Williams, USC, 6-1, 190 lbs
2009 receiving stats: 70 catches, 1,010 yards, 6 TDs
NFL comparison: Mike Sims-Walker
Projected draft position: Second round
Jan. 20 analysis: Williams has nice speed and good mechanics in general. This may sound a little simplistic, but one of his best characteristics is he's always looking to head upfield the instant the ball is in his bread basket. He rarely drops passes he shouldn't and has a neat knack for timing his runs well so he's able to catch the ball perfectly in stride. Williams probably won't be more than a possession receiver in the NFL, but he has the potential to be a reliable set of hands who might amass 50-plus yards per game.
8. Demaryius Thomas, Georgia Tech, 6-3, 230 lbs
2009 receiving stats: 46 catches, 1,154 yards, 8 TDs
NFL comparison: Roy Williams
Projected draft position: Third round
Jan. 20 analysis: A wide receiver in a triple-option offense? Not always easy to judge since he doesn't get the ball thrown to him, and when he does, he usually has single coverage since most defenders are selling out to stop the run.
However, Thomas is a big and physical wide receiver who has speed. He knows how to make catches in traffic, then stiff-arm defenders away from him. Just imagine what kinds of numbers he would have posted in a more conventional offense. He seems to win more competitions for jump ball passes than he loses. He's definitely someone who could improve his draft stock a great deal between now and the combine.
9. Jordan Shipley, Texas, 6-0, 190 lbs
2009 receiving stats: 116 catches, 1,485 yards, 13 TDs
NFL comparison: Wes Welker
Projected draft position: Third round
Jan. 20 analysis: Shipley's big performance in the BCS title game may have caught your attention, but scouts and GMs are already well aware of what this guy can do. How many NFL coaches wouldn't want a guy on their offense who has a reliable set of hands and isn't afraid to go over the middle and make every catch? Shipley's huge game (with a backup QB, mind you) against Alabama may have set the stage for him to improve his draft stock a little.
10. Riley Cooper, Florida, 6-3, 215 lbs
2009 receiving stats: 51 catches, 961 yards, 9 TDs
NFL comparison: Malcolm Floyd
Projected draft position: Late third/Early Fourth round
Jan. 20 analysis: Cooper is one of those industrious, physical wide receivers who plays more like a tight end than a wideout. But he's another player whose stats are a bit more difficult to judge since he played in such a non-conventional offense. Riley's speed is a little better than that of an average tight end, so he might line up in the slot in the NFL, then go over the middle to try and create mismatches with linebackers in coverage. Chances are he's not going to be a gamebreaker, though, and you shouldn't really have him on your fantasy radar next year.
Running backs are one of a few positions where rookies can come in and contribute immediately. Problem is, this draft class isn't exactly loaded with top-tier running backs. But there are still a few worth monitoring.
1. C.J. Spiller, Clemson, 5-11, 195 lbs
2009 rushing stats: 216 carries, 1,212 yards, 12 TDs
2009 receiving stats: 36 catches, 503 yards, 4 TDs
NFL comparison: Felix Jones
Projected draft position: Top 15 overall
Jan. 13 analysis: Dazzling. Explosive. Electrifying. Gamebreaking.
Pick your favorite adjective, and each one (and then some) probably applies to Spiller. He is one of a few players who would pretty much force you to keep the TV on that channel when Clemson's offense had the ball since he has a legitimate chance at taking every single carry or screen pass to the house. He shared carries on offense, but also played a major role in returning kicks on special teams, so he can really bring value to a few different areas for whatever NFL team chooses to select him.
The only knock on Spiller is his size, but don't let that fool you. He has still shown the ability to break tackles (if he didn't elude them altogether beforehand). Spiller has excellent speed and, for lack of a better description, knows how to balance his center of gravity well - if that makes sense. That means a solid tackle is usually required to bring him down, and one tackler may not be enough to do the job. He is capable of playing as an every-down back, and I wouldn't be shocked if he outperforms his expectations in his rookie campaign. Definitely someone to keep an eye on during training camps.
2. Jahvid Best, California, 5-10, 195 lbs
2009 rushing stats: 141 carries, 867 yards, 12 TDs
2009 receiving stats: 22 catches, 213 yards, 4 TDs
NFL comparison: Knowshon Moreno
Projected draft position: Top 20 overall
Jan. 13 analysis: Best and Spiller could very well be 1a and 1b for RB rankings since both of them are gamebreakers. You may have seen the endless replays of Best getting KO'd on his touchdown run against Oregon St., which ended his season prematurely. It's a shame since he was on pace for a mighty impressive season.
Best's most impressive characteristic is his ability to cut back and change directions in an instant. He doesn't seem to lose any speed while making his cutbacks, and that makes him a very difficult player to chase down and tackle in the open field. The fit which would allow him to excel the most would probably be a team which runs a zone blocking scheme since he somehow seems to hit fifth gear the instant his quarterback hands him the ball. He only needs a tiny hole to be created in the line, and he's more than capable of shooting through it. He may need to learn a tad more patience and allow his blocks to develop for a few more fractions of a second at the pro level, but he could be a highly dangerous home run threat with even mediocre blocking in front of him in the pros.
3. Jonathan Dwyer, Georgia Tech, 6-0, 228 lbs
2009 rushing stats: 235 carries, 1,395 yards, 14 TDs
2009 receiving stats: 5 catches, 37 yards, 0 TDs
NFL comparison: Frank Gore
Projected draft position: Second round
Jan. 13 analysis: Georgia Tech's Paul Johnson runs a very old school triple option offense, which really limits the potential NFL value of some of his players. Running back isn't one of them, fortunately. If anything, running backs coming from a system such as this one need to be smarter than ones which come from "just grab the ball and smash your way through as many defenders as you possibly can" types. A triple option attack relies on precise synchronization and timing, and the slightest misstep or confusion can spell disaster for the play.
Dwyer rushed for over 100 yards in seven of the 14 games the Yellow Jackets played this past season. He's a physical back who can break long runs and shed tackles. The adjustment to a more standard pro offense shouldn't be a big deal for him. If he can post a strong 40-time at the combine, he could sneak into the bottom of the first round.
4. Toby Gerhart, Stanford, 6-1, 233 lbs
2009 rushing stats: 343 carries, 1,871 yards, 27 TDs
2009 receiving stats: 11 catches, 157 yards, 0 TDs
NFL comparison: Ray Rice
Projected draft position: Second round
Jan. 13 analysis: Another guy who could improve his stock with a solid combine. Unless you despise Stanford, you have to have enjoyed watching him run the ball. Gerhart is a prototypical workhorse running back who does an excellent job at shedding tacklers and gaining yards after initial contact - in fact, he probably does it better than any other running back in college football. Gerhart always seems to be moving forward and finds some way to squeeze every inch of yardage out of each carry. He has a relentless motor and seems to actually gain strength as his game progresses, almost like a video game character who finds some kind of energy pellet on the field and consumes it.
5. Anthony Dixon, Mississippi State, 6-1, 240 lbs
2009 rushing stats: 257 carries, 1,391 yards, 12 TDs
2009 receiving stats: 18 catches, 123 yards, 0 TDs
NFL comparison: Michael Turner
Projected draft position: Third round
Jan. 13 analysis: Who says slow is a bad thing? Dixon is anything but a speed demon. His running style is rather deliberate, and he probably wouldn't even care if the defense knew where his play was headed before the snap. Why? Because he seems to enjoy initiating contact with whichever defensive backs dare to tackle him. That's probably a big reason he owns almost every meaningful Bulldogs rushing record there is.
Dixon began the '09 season with 92 rushing yards against Auburn, then ripped off five straight 100-plus yard games on the ground. Unfortunately, he was cited for driving under the influence before the season began. The whole incident was a disaster - he was given citations for careless driving and driving without insurance, and his refusal to take a breathalyzer test made an already bad sitiation worse. This will be an obvious red flag for so many NFL general managers are weighing character issues more and more as they decide when to draft a given player. If it's a tossup between Dixon and a squeaky clean prospect, well ... sorry, Anthony. Most GMs will probably opt for the choir boys.
6. Charles Scott, LSU, 5-11, 230 lbs
NFL comparison: LenDale White
2009 rushing stats: 116 carries, 542 yards, 4 TDs
2009 receiving stats: 8 catches, 54 yards, 0 TDs
Projected draft position: Late second/Early third round
Jan. 13 analysis: Scott, like Gerhart, is the kind of running back who will wear defenses down over the course of a game. His speed is decent, but he's not the type of back who is going to break many huge runs. That's what'll prevent him from becoming a featured back in the NFL. Instead, he's the back which defenders don't want to tackle anymore as the game moves into the later stages. You'll see Scott's name called for short-yardage carries in frigid temperatures when his offense needs to pick up short yardage on third down.
7. Joe McKnight, USC, 6-0, 228 lbs
2009 rushing stats: 164 carries, 1,014 yards, 8 TDs
2009 receiving stats: 22 catches, 146 yards, 0 TDs
NFL comparison: Laurence Maroney
Projected draft position: Third round
Jan. 13 analysis: Maybe it's just me, but it seems like only yesterday when McKnight committed to USC. He's more of a big time playmaker, but not someone who is capable of carrying the ball 20-25 times per game and gaining yardage each time.
McKnight improved his rushing yardage total in three straight seasons at USC, which was good. Curiously, his receiving yardage decreased each season despite the fact that his receptions totals were almost equal in each of those three years. When he was on his game, McKnight was a force. Unfortunately, he had a bad habit of disappearing on occasion, and the sketchy details surrounding his allegedly illegal acceptance of a benefit (the use of an SUV in this case) might drop his stock among those prickly general managers who target "character guys" that I mentioned above. McKnight really would have done himself a world of good to stay in school for another year, but he joined a few others in abandoning the sinking Trojan ship.
8. Ryan Mathews, Fresno State, 5-11, 220 lbs
2009 rushing stats: 276 carries, 1,808 yards, 19 TDs
2009 receiving stats: 11 catches, 122 yards, 0 TDs
NFL comparison: Ryan Grant
Projected draft position: Third round
Jan. 13 analysis: Never heard of him before? You will. Mathews is absolutely someone you want to keep your eye on, because his draft stock could change radically between now and April if he puts in a good combine and pro day.
Let's get this one out of the way early: there were only two games all season long where Mathews didn't top 100 rushing yards. One in which he was injured in the first quarter, and the other that he missed altogether. That's it. Every single time he received a full workload, he was an absolute force for the Bulldogs. He 151.3 yards per game on the ground, which was the best of any running back in the nation. He has a neat knack for seeing the play develop, then turning on the afterburners at precisely the right second to hit a hole and turn a run into a big gain.
Fresno St. has never been a team which shies away from tough competition. Be that as it may, having spent his college years in the WAC won't help Mathews' cause a great deal. Still, this guy is the real deal. If I had to put my life on any of these guys improving their draft stock the most, Mathews would likely be my pick.
9. Dexter McCluster, Mississippi, 5-7, 168 lbs
2009 rushing stats: 181 carries, 1,169 yards, 8 TDs
2009 receiving stats: 44 catches, 520 yards, 3 TDs
NFL comparison: Darren Sproles
Projected draft position: Third/Fourth round
Jan. 13 analysis: McCluster is hands-down the fastest RB I've ever seen play at any level, including Chris Johnson. How's that for an attention grabber?
He reminds me quite a bit of Johnson since he looks like he's running about three speeds faster than anyone else on the field, as if some tech geek was able to speed him up in the picture frame while slowing everyone else down. He has lightning quick cuts when he changes directions in traffic, and even good defenders sometimes looks like statues when he blazes by them. Before they even figure out what he's going to do, he's long gone.
So, why won't we hear his name called on Day 1? Because he has the physique of Gilligan when compared to NFL counterparts. There's just no way a guy can withstand men twice his weight crunching him into the ground play after play, week after week. McCluster will make plays when he gets the ball in space. It's just a matter of how often he'll see the field. If he found a genie in a bottle who could wave his wand and add 50 pounds of bulk without sacrificing any speed, McCluster would be a candidate to go No. 1 overall. I'm not kidding.
10. Montario Hardesty, Tennessee, 6-0, 215 lbs
2009 rushing stats: 282 carries, 1,345 yards, 13 TDs
2009 receiving stats: 25 catches, 302 yards, 1 TD
NFL comparison: Jonathan Stewart
Projected draft position: Fourth round
Jan. 13 analysis: Hardesty takes nice, long strides when he runs with the ball, which lets him use his above average speed to gain a few extra inches with each step. NFL Scouts will realize those extra inches could add up over the course of a game.
Anyone who has seen Hardesty run knows of the nifty spin move he uses to elude defenders, but it's just not going to work as easily at the NFL level. My main gripe is he sometimes waits a little too long to let a play develop, even through running backs are sometimes put in a position where they need to create something out of nothing on their own. Easier said than done, sure. But Hardesty just isn't someone who I can see as an every-down back.
There may be one player who could work himself into such a position if he blows everyone away at the combine and his pro day. Let's start in Stillwater.
1. Dez Bryant, Oklahoma St., 6-2, 220 lbs
2009 receiving stats: None
NFL comparison: Terrell Owens
Projected draft position: Top 15 overall
Jan. 20 analysis: The best we can go on for Bryant is his 2008 season when he had 87 catches for 1,480 yards and 19 touchdowns. Not bad, is it? Sort of sounds like the stuff top wideouts are made of. Bryant plays taller than he really is and knows how to use his body to shield defenders from the ball. Just about every one of his characteristics matches what you'd want in a prototypical receiver. So why aren't we talking about him as a top-five overall pick?
Bryant was suspended for the entire 2009 season after "failing to fully disclose the extent of his conversation with Deion Sanders." Translation: he may have had some improper and premature dealings with an "agent." I don't know what PrimeTime could have said that would constitute something illegal, but that's the NCAA for you. However, none of that changes the fact that Bryant is a highly dangerous receiver who could really develop into an elite talent at the pro level. The fact that he's been out of action for some time is probably the only thing that'll lower his draft stock. But if he somehow slips down to a team with an already solid passing attack in the draft, he could be someone to keep an eye on for fantasy purposes.
2. Golden Tate, Notre Dame, 5-11, 195 lbs
2009 receiving stats: 93 catches, 1,496 yards, 15 TDs
NFL comparison: Roddy White
Projected draft position: Late first round
Jan. 20 analysis: Tate may not have the largest frame, but he made an impact on a weekly basis. Not many defensive backs at the college level could contain him one-on-one. Tate was held out of the end zone only twice all season long. He finished the year by catching at least one touchdown pass in each of his last eight games (culminating with a 201-yard, three-TD game agaisnt Stanford). If Tate somehow slips to the second round, whichever team lands him may have struck gold. The problem is if he does, he's likely to get taken high in the second round, meaning he's going to go to a lousy team. But he certainly has the physical tools to make an immediate impact at the NFL level. It's just a question of which team selects him.
3. Brandon LaFell, LSU, 6-3, 206 lbs
2009 receiving stats: 57 catches, 792 yards, 11 TDs
NFL comparison: Santana Moss
Projected draft position: Second round
Jan. 20 analysis: LaFell isn't the type of receiver who is going to wow you with stats on a weekly basis, but he also finds a way to make an impact each week. He is a fearless wideout who doesn't mind throwing everything he has into making an acrobatic catch. The good news is LaFell had at least 48 yards in every game last season, which means he's not the type of guy who will disappear every so often and leave you enraged. That kind of consistency will go a long way in the eyes of GMs and scouts who are on the fence about whether to draft him. He'll need to add a little bulk, but that can be done during his first training camp.
4. Arrelious Benn, Illinois, 6-2, 220 lbs
2009 receiving stats: 38 catches, 490 yards, 2 TDs
NFL comparison: Anquan Boldin
Projected draft position: Second round
Jan. 20 analysis: If you've watched Benn play, you can see the talent is there. The problem is Illinois ran a goofy version of a spread offense, and Juice Williams didn't look anything like the quarterback he once was. His passing was highly erratic all season long, which obviously limits Benn's ablility to post numbers.
But Benn has good size and blocking ability. You'll see it a lot more clearly at the pro level when he'll have a QB who can get him the ball. Here's a classic example of a player who will make more of an impact at the pro level than he did in college.
5. Danario Alexander, Missouri, 6-5, 215 lbs
2009 receiving stats: 113 catches, 1,781 yards, 14 TDs
NFL comparison: Calvin Johnson
Projected draft position: Late third/Early Fourth round
Jan. 20 analysis: Looking purely at his numbers, it's clear Alexander can play. You don't post that kind of production in the Big 12 without the ability to make big plays from start to finish. The problem is Alexander's speed, or lack thereof. He can outrun defenders in space, but he looks like the kind of wideout who can get caught from behind by a defensive back with even mediocre speed. He's just too tall and lanky to ever become a true WR1 at the NFL level. That doesn't mean he won't be a nice red zone target for whoever drafts him, though. Let's see how good of a 40-time he posts at the combine. My personal over/under is set at 4.6.
6. Mardy Gilyard, Cincinnati, 6-1, 187 lbs
2009 receiving stats: 87 catches, 1,191 yards, 11 TDs
NFL comparison: Josh Cribbs
Projected draft position: Late second/Early third round
Jan. 20 analysis: Gilyard is the kind of guy who you love to have on your team and hate going against. He's a little too light to become a prototypical WR1, but give him the ball in space and he can make things happen - think Percy Harvin. The majority of his yardage came after he caught the ball, and he is also a terror to defend on special teams. Look at how much of an impact Josh Cribbs made for the Browns. Gilyard is the type of player who can do exactly the same thing.
7. Damian Williams, USC, 6-1, 190 lbs
2009 receiving stats: 70 catches, 1,010 yards, 6 TDs
NFL comparison: Mike Sims-Walker
Projected draft position: Second round
Jan. 20 analysis: Williams has nice speed and good mechanics in general. This may sound a little simplistic, but one of his best characteristics is he's always looking to head upfield the instant the ball is in his bread basket. He rarely drops passes he shouldn't and has a neat knack for timing his runs well so he's able to catch the ball perfectly in stride. Williams probably won't be more than a possession receiver in the NFL, but he has the potential to be a reliable set of hands who might amass 50-plus yards per game.
8. Demaryius Thomas, Georgia Tech, 6-3, 230 lbs
2009 receiving stats: 46 catches, 1,154 yards, 8 TDs
NFL comparison: Roy Williams
Projected draft position: Third round
Jan. 20 analysis: A wide receiver in a triple-option offense? Not always easy to judge since he doesn't get the ball thrown to him, and when he does, he usually has single coverage since most defenders are selling out to stop the run.
However, Thomas is a big and physical wide receiver who has speed. He knows how to make catches in traffic, then stiff-arm defenders away from him. Just imagine what kinds of numbers he would have posted in a more conventional offense. He seems to win more competitions for jump ball passes than he loses. He's definitely someone who could improve his draft stock a great deal between now and the combine.
9. Jordan Shipley, Texas, 6-0, 190 lbs
2009 receiving stats: 116 catches, 1,485 yards, 13 TDs
NFL comparison: Wes Welker
Projected draft position: Third round
Jan. 20 analysis: Shipley's big performance in the BCS title game may have caught your attention, but scouts and GMs are already well aware of what this guy can do. How many NFL coaches wouldn't want a guy on their offense who has a reliable set of hands and isn't afraid to go over the middle and make every catch? Shipley's huge game (with a backup QB, mind you) against Alabama may have set the stage for him to improve his draft stock a little.
10. Riley Cooper, Florida, 6-3, 215 lbs
2009 receiving stats: 51 catches, 961 yards, 9 TDs
NFL comparison: Malcolm Floyd
Projected draft position: Late third/Early Fourth round
Jan. 20 analysis: Cooper is one of those industrious, physical wide receivers who plays more like a tight end than a wideout. But he's another player whose stats are a bit more difficult to judge since he played in such a non-conventional offense. Riley's speed is a little better than that of an average tight end, so he might line up in the slot in the NFL, then go over the middle to try and create mismatches with linebackers in coverage. Chances are he's not going to be a gamebreaker, though, and you shouldn't really have him on your fantasy radar next year.
BuckeyeArt
Footballguy
That seems odd.
BigJim®
Footballguy
Let me guess, you want to compare him to Brian Lenard/Mike Alstott/etc.
A
awesomeness
Guest
Decent analysis, but those comparison's are beyond terrible. Jahvid Best to Knowshon Moreno? Golden Tate to Roddy White? Gerhart to Ray Rice? etc. etc.
BuckeyeArt
Footballguy
Well, at least they are over 5'8" and 200 lbs.Was race really the first thing that came to your mind?
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
You have to be kidding. The top 4 RB's(CJ, Best, Dwyer, Mathews)...yeh they are interchangable depending on the evaluator...but behind Charles Scott, McKnight, and Garhart. -He has a better size speed ratio than anyone in the class outside of maybe Dwyer.
-He played in a legit pro style offense
-He doesn't get the publicity he should b/c of his conference.
-Look at how he did vs Boise State or a 5th ranked rush D in Wisconsin....the kid can play.
-He knows how to score 39 career rushing TD's in 31 games.
-If you want more look on the thread I have titled Ryan Mathews....no respect? get on this train.
And people wonder where I am coming from with no respect.
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hooptd
Footballguy
Amen. :X
EBF
Footballguy
That's probably the one issue that I have with his game. He's not great in tight spaces. Still, when you're 5'10" 225 with 4.4 speed, excellent college production, and a top 50 grade, you're probably going to be an adequate pro RB at worst.
EBF
Footballguy
I have Tate ranked low because I'm operating under the assumption that he doesn't have the speed and burst to overcome his diminutive size. If he can prove that he's in the same athletic class as successful smurf WRs like SMoss, Smitty, DeSean, Royal, and Harvin then I would have to reconsider that stance.
I think it's a pretty good group. Strong RBs despite the lack of a can't-miss ADP type. Two very good WRs at the top and another 10 or so guys who could become starters at the next level. Very good TEs. QB is a little thin unless someone like LeFevour or Brown becomes a revelation in the NFL.
EBF
Footballguy
I've learned to be wary of people whose prospect player comparisons demonstrate a gross lack of understanding. I see a lot lazy comparisons where "the next big thing" is compared to the current big thing even if their games aren't similar at all (i.e. McFadden/Peterson or Crabtree/Cavin). Other times comparisons are just flat out wacky. Toby Gerhart/Ray Rice? Brandon LaFell/Santana Moss? I'm not seeing either of those, to put it mildly.
coolnerd
Footballguy
The top of the board at all position contains players who have at least one obvious flaw, but at the same time seems to have depth throughout the same positionQB: Probably the most flawed skill position. Bradford/Claussen both have injury issues and will the best of this class, are they really elite? McCoy/Lefevour are at the top of bunches of spread QBs with productive college numbers, but have questions about transitioning into the NFL. RB: There has been an assumed top 4 (Spiller, Matthews, Dywer, Best). All have question marks and while the highest ceillings of the classes, flawed for the best in class. The good news is there are big backs (Gerhart/Dixon/Blount) and 6-8 guys with NFL bodies that give the class more depth than 2009. If you know what you are looking or get lucky there is an NFL starter or two out that mess.WR: Bryant is the safest player on the board at any FF position. After that there are bunches of eye of beholder types. Some like Thomas., some Williams, some Benn, some Tate. I don't have answer here, but there will 2 or 3 playera from the mess of between WR2-WR10 probably as dependant on situation and scheme as much as talent. TE: Gresham is largely thought as the only potentially elite guy. Gronkowski is coming of injury. the rest are a variety of pass catchers who could be Owen Daniels or never heard from fantasy wise.
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Michael Fox Fan
Footballguy
Michael Fox Fan
Footballguy
F5, F5, F5.....
Maroney=Speed
Footballguy
Wow, Bradford weight of 236 pounds. FAT.
BuckeyeArt
Footballguy
It looks like they're viewing it as a positive saying he's been working out and it's all muscleWow, Bradford weight of 236 pounds. FAT.
Yeah, I'm hearing raves about his work ethic to get in shape.It looks like they're viewing it as a positive saying he's been working out and it's all muscleWow, Bradford weight of 236 pounds. FAT.
coolnerd
Footballguy
Think he has the Schuab/Manning build where even when he gets solid he still looks a little thin without the heavily cut body.Yeah, I'm hearing raves about his work ethic to get in shape.It looks like they're viewing it as a positive saying he's been working out and it's all muscleWow, Bradford weight of 236 pounds. FAT.
Dave Larkin
Moderator
Golden Tate just posted some better than expected 40 yard dash times at the Combine - a 4.36 and 4.37. I believe these times are unofficial, but it's still impressive. This comes two days after Tate said to the media that he expected to run a 4.5-4.6 time. Could this possibly vault him into the late 1st?
