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[DYNASTY] 2013 Top 20 Rookies (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter EBF
- Start date
He is my favorite to go 1.1 in ppr drafts. Of course we still have the combine, nfl draft etc that could change things, but I think he will show well at the combine.
Finatic
Footballguy
Agreed, would be shocked if he made it past 1.03 in most leagues, especially PPR leagues.
cstu
Footballguy
Bernard is the top RB and right now you've got Allen, Patterson and Hunter as possible 1st round picks. At worst Bernard is going at 1.04 but I think he goes top two.
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cstu
Footballguy
I haven't seen anyone say that about him, but it makes the draft a little deeper with him in it. He seems like a guy worth spending a 2nd on. I'm not impressed by his YPC but he didn't get a lot of blocking. He also seems to have nice hands (28 catches for a 11.5 average) and a decent blocker.
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doowain
Footballguy
I completely agree but no one is talking about him right now. That has the potential to affect his rookie draft stock considering the short memories of fantasy owners.
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Xue
Footballguy
Not here, but on a few non-fantasy draft forums and a few draftniks on twitter.
EBF
Footballguy
I'd think about it. He's one of the few skill players in this draft who has a chance to go in the first round. With the way TEs are being used by some teams now, it's possible that he could have monster value. However, I don't know if he's really on the elite Kellen Winslow Jr. level as a prospect. He's pretty fluid for a bigger target and looks like a jumbo WR when split out wide, but he doesn't always seem to get great separation out of his breaks and that could be an issue at the next level. He's a pretty safe pick, but there's a decent chance that he ends up being more like Greg Olsen/Jermaine Gresham/Heath Miller than Jason Witten/Tony Gonzalez.
Finatic
Footballguy
How do you expect him to workout at the combine?
EBF
Footballguy
I'd guess that he'll run pretty fast. Probably have a decent vert too. He's a solid athlete. His first step quickness could be better, but it's not bad at all for a 6'5" TE. If you look at a guy like Michael Crabtree, he doesn't have awesome track speed, but he's really quick out of his cuts and plants. You can see it on the first few catches here:http://youtu.be/WivYeNzmnxs?t=57sI'd like to see a little more of that from Eifert, but the reality is that a 6'5" TE can't be expected to be as quick as a 6'1" WR who weighs 30-40 pounds less. Eifert moves pretty well compared to the field of TE prospects. And what he lacks in burst will be partially compensated for by his height, range, and jump ball ability. Overall, I see Greg Olsen as a realistic conservative estimate for his career outcome. I'm not sure he's capable of reaching Witten/Graham/Gonzo levels, but he might be. So let's say he's 50% Greg Olsen and 30% Jason Witten and 20% bust. He probably becomes the #4 or 5 TE in startups right away behind guys like Graham, Gronk, Hernandez, and maybe Gresham. That's about what he's worth to me.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Yes. Unlike Witten, Eifert plays his length; he is more of a physical mismatch. Any team drafting him will likely be looking to use him like Gronkowski/Graham. The Irish lined him up as the X Wideout often, and I expect his NFL team to do the same. He'll be split out with a much smaller, much shorter player defending him. That will lead to quality redzone production.He's one of the best skill players in this draft and your format supports valuing him on par with the RBs and WRs.
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EBF
Footballguy
He's not as big as Thomas, but he's deceptively strong and he runs like he has a rocket strapped to his back. I've heard comparisons to Mike Wallace. I don't think Wheaton is quite that fast, but he appears to be a better overall athlete. Doesn't have the awkward running style of Wallace and has much better agility. Shifty in the open field. Explosive out of his plants. The whole ASU game that I've linked to earlier was like an advertisement for his draft stock:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CjtiPitIsgEWhen they cut to the field view on this play, you can get a sense for the kind of route runner that he could be:http://youtu.be/CjtiPitIsgE?t=43sI don't know if he's got the Pro Bowl upside that Thomas obviously had. Sure looks like a first round athlete to me though. He'll be playing in the Senior Bowl. Very curious to hear how he does there. Also expecting to hear some "stock is rising" reports about him like we had with Thomas after his last year as the info leaks out to online pundits from their league sources.
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Finatic
Footballguy
I just feel that a TE in my format would be a better use of a high pick 2-3 years from now than a RB/WR that's less heralded. Bad year to have a top 3 pick in dynasty leagues if your looking for the next STUD RB.
That's what everyone is saying but this time last year who thought Doug Martin was a stud? I now lots of people liked Doug Martin, myself included, but this time last year most people thought it was a huge drop from Trent to the next guy and for a lot of people that next guy was Blackmon, Luck, RG or Wilson and not Martin. Meanwhile this time last year a lot of folks would have thought Polk would be a 2nd-3rd rounder and a first/second rounder in rookie dynasty drafts. Still so early.
Xue
Footballguy
Polk had a degenerative hip issue that only NFL teams were privy to know. No one in the draft community knew about until draft day.
A lot of people were very high on Martin. No one could've expected him to put up the rookie season that he did.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
This time last year he was a 2nd-3rd round pick behind Richardson, Miller, Wilson, and Polk, in that order. The point is valid: when the professionals start breaking these guys down (or release their thoughts, anyway), everything changes. There will very likely be players like Doug Martin who make a late push and present themselves as high-end fantasy options.
EBF
Footballguy
Rankings continuing to evolve. Quick RB/WR/TE update:Eddie Lacy----------Gio BernardStepfan TaylorSpencer Ware-------------Marcus LattimoreMontee BallLeVeon BellAndre EllingtonMarkus WheatonKeenan Allen--------------Da'Rick RogersDeAndre HopkinsJustin HunterRobert WoodsCordarrelle Patterson----------------Marquess WilsonMarcus DavisQuinton PattonChris HarperTyler Eifert--------------Zach ErtzWheaton, Allen, and Lacy are my top 3 in some order. None of them would've ranked higher than #6 on my board last year, but they all look like reasonably safe picks to me with decent upside.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Big error leaving Randle off the list entirely. You're predisposed to hate him because he's built like DMC/Murray in a lot of ways, but still.
EBF
Footballguy
I always forget about him. You're right that he's not my style of back at all, but I wouldn't have a problem with him in the third tier.This is not a very good RB class. Lacy is really the only guy that I have any degree of confidence in.
JFS171
Footballguy
Am I the only one that believes that despite not having a clear Richardson/Peterson, this RB class is extremely deep?Across various sources I've seen at least somewhat positive reviews for the following (in no particular order):Eddie LacyGio BernardMontee BallLe'Veon BellAndre EllingtonJonathan FranklinJoseph RandleRay GrahamMarcus LattimoreZac StacyChristine MichaelKerwyn WilliamsAnd I'm sure there are others. Point being, seems like situation may dictate the order of these guys, but there don't appear to be HUGE talent gaps between a lot of these guys. Obviously a few rise to the top, but this seems like quite a deep class, and one where, combined with the WR depth, you can still get potential contributors throughout the early second round.
EBF
Footballguy
The first thing I'd say is that just about ANY RB who has enough talent to make an NFL roster has the ability to post serviceable FF stats if given 15-20 touches per game. So if a guy like Michael or Bell found himself on a team with no starter, I'd absolutely get on board with the idea that he could be productive and useful. But if you want to talk about guys who have the talent level to demand that kind of opportunity, I think this is a really poor class. Eddie Lacy is my top ranked back and I think he's probably a late 1st round talent at best. There just isn't much out there that makes you say wow. The McFadden/Stewart/Felix/Mendenhall/CJ class had five first round backs. We'll be lucky to get one this year.
JFS171
Footballguy
Completely agree. My point was simply that situation may matter quite a bit this year... and that you can still get value in the late first and early second, in all likelihood. For example, we may not see extremely special or exceptional qualities in a player like Ellington. But put Ellington on the Lions, and I'd completely get on board.I'm absolutely curious to see how the NFL values these guys in the actual draft, which may not be highly at all considering the devaluing of the position as a whole, and propensity to deploy committee RBs.
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EBF
Footballguy
I think part of that is being able to recognize when the incumbent or presumed starter is vulnerable. Part of the reason why I got on the Daryl Richardson train early is because I didn't have any faith in Isaiah Pead. Part of the reason why I made preemptive moves to get Moreno before McGahee got hurt is because I didn't believe in Ronnie Hillman. And I think part of the reason why Ballard had more value than anticipated is because Donald Brown is crap. If you don't believe in the other guys on the roster, you might as well take a punt on the underdog.
Time Kibitzer
Footballguy
Vick Ballard is pretty bad imo, I don't think he'll be starting for Indy next season.
I totally disagree with this statement myself but that is why we play the games. But opportunity will be huge in the end and the best example of this is Alfred Morris even more than Ballard since Ballard was the higher draft pick. Any of these guys could come out of the woodwork for RB and be pretty good. Happens every year for a few players.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Curious why you think this? 4.1 per carry and 8.9 per catch after moving into the starting lineup and he looks solid when I see him. He's not fast, but he does everything decently. If he'd gotten the goal line carries earlier I think he'd be more highly considered. IMO the Colts will have a hard time finding someone better if they don't make a splash in FA or use a top pick on a RB.'Time Kibitzer said:
Time Kibitzer
Footballguy
He has a very good combination of size and quickness, but watching him play he dances in the backfield way too much for my liking; I think his vision just isn't very good.
OneArmSteve
Footballguy
I live in Atlanta and watch a lot of SEC football. Lattimore is the real deal. Has he been hurt twice? Sure, but he is tough as they come. Dyer is very talented, if he gets into the right situation then he can be very good. At Auburn he made a lot of bad choices and toted a bad attitude to boot.Eddie Lacy = Mark Ingram from a talent perspective. Richardson is/was the best of the Bama backs until TJ Yeldon can declare. Lacy still very high on my board, but I won't get him because he's a lot higher on others.Tyler Wilson looked like a superstar under Petrino, he's more talented then most draft boards will have him. A late pick on TE Philip Lutzenkirchen might be a good idea. He's a top 3-4 draft eligible TE IMO. Ertz and Eifert caught more balls, but both had fewer career TDs than Lutz (14) despite missing most of 2012.
EBF
Footballguy
One of my favorite players in the draft. Murky FF outlook due to his lack of conventional outside WR height, but he's a baller:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n3djgbjiKX0
replacements
Footballguy
WOW. Hadn't really seen him play. He looks very small. His ability to cut without losing speed is unreal. In that video he seems to have unbelievable vision as well once the ball is in his hands. He could sure be fun to watch on sundays. Does he project as a slot reciever due to his size?
Carl Eller's Dead Liver
Footballguy
Just curious.....why do you have Wheaton rated so high? Everywhere else I look he's WR 6 or 7. I know nothing about the guy, so sell me. I'm highly invested in this draft for dynasty purposes (actually I have great teams, but I've also managed to pick up several picks in this draft) so I'm very interested.
EBF
Footballguy
I think so. I've not seen him make a lot of downfield plays, although he does seem fast enough. Just not very tall. He is tailor-made for the slot though. Strong for his height and ridiculously quick.
EBF
Footballguy
Bear in mind that mocks lag behind reality because most of them are just based on recycled internet pundit rankings and not on actual feedback from NFL scouts. I don't think a lot of mocks had Doug Martin, AJ Jenkins, or David Wilson as a first round pick at this point last year. But after scouts got a look at them and pro teams weighed in, all of those players went in the first round. There is a disconnect between what you will read online and what actual NFL personnel departments are thinking. I believe Wheaton is a guy who will rise throughout the postseason. He has all of the necessary ingredients. Great production. Was first team All-Pac 12 and averaged over 100 yards per game. Great speed. He runs the 100m in 10.5 seconds and is the most explosive outside WR prospect who figures to go in the first few rounds of the draft. That is one of his main virtues. When you watch guys like Patton, Hunter, and Hopkins and then you look at Wheaton afterwards, he is noticeably faster and more explosive. Just generates a lot more burst with every step and plant. I think that's going to show up in his workout numbers at the combine and probably also at the Senior Bowl. After teams really get a close look at this guy, I think he has a chance to be a late first round pick. I've posted this link before, but I'll post it again because it's basically a 5 minute advertisement for everything this guy can do:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CjtiPitIsgEWhen I look for a top draft prospect I am looking for a player with standout next level physical tools who also demonstrated good football skills by producing with the opportunities that he was given in college. Wheaton certainly fits the bill. He's a dynamite athlete who would be a perfect fit in a downfield passing attack ala Indy/Pittsburgh/Washington.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Wheaton weighed in at 71.0" and 183 today at the Senior Bowl.
EBF
Footballguy
Just took a peek at the weigh in numbers. I think it bodes well for these guys:Andre Ellington - 5'9" 197Chris Harper - 6'1" 228Stepfan Taylor - 5'9" 216Taylor is a rock at 5'9" 216. Not surprised by that, as he's a stocky little dude. Harper is almost too big for a WR at 6'1" 228, but that strength might serve him well on Sundays. Very curious to hear what kind of week he has at practice and what kind of numbers he puts up in Indy. For now I think he's probably just another Josh Morgan, but he seems like one of the more promising options among the unheralded WR prospects. 197 is a good weight for Ellington. We always knew that he was a bit on the small side, but I think that's a pretty good number for a small scatback type. My RB board is still a work in progress, but I think he's a likely top 4-5 back for me.
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Xue
Footballguy
That puts Wheaton closer to Santonio Holmes, Vincent Brown, Emmanuel Sanders.
Xue
Footballguy
I'm curious to see if anyone gets creative enough to put Harper in the backfield a la Marcel Reece. He's got very good strength. He is a better WR than Reece was though. I don't think he's goo heavy. Anquan Boldin is close in size at 220, and he was never that fast anyway.I'm really impressed to see Johnathan Franklin at 5'10" even and 201 lbs. The more I watch him, the more I see some David Wilson in him.
