[DYNASTY] 2013 Top 20 Rookies (1 Viewer)

[Steed]

Russ lande saw jets scouts taking a strong interest in Stephan Taylor. For what it's worth, he also said Baldwin looked slow coming out of his cuts at his pro day. He was never in attendance.

 

[BruceAlmighty]

The thing that worries me about Wheaton is that of the top 40 wrs in receiving yds this year exactly one played in the PAC-12. And that's Steve Smith, and Utah wasn't in the conference when he was there. I really like what Keenan Allen brings to the table, but that's a tough stat to explain away.

 

[EBF]

The thing that worries me about Wheaton is that of the top 40 wrs in receiving yds this year exactly one played in the PAC-12. And that's Steve Smith, and Utah wasn't in the conference when he was there. I really like what Keenan Allen brings to the table, but that's a tough stat to explain away.

Nothing more than random variance. Ochocinco and DeSean Jackson have been good. Lee is for real. Wheaton, Allen, Woods, and Wilson all have a chance. Josh Huff, Ty Montgomery, Kenneth Scott, and Paul Richardson could be decent prospects down the line.

 

[JFS171]

After watching the Senior Bowl practice this afternoon (NFL Network - not in person), Markus Wheaton is incredibly fast and sudden. He was creating huge amounts of separation against almost every guy he faced. When he went up against Trufant, arguably the best cover corner in the drills, Wheaton shook him so badly Trufant had to tackle him to stop the play. Impressively quick, but he's not a big guy. Probably big enough though...Also in that same drill, Chris Harper ran by a few guys. I don't think he's exactly going to light up the combine, but I could see him surprising some with his speed, and he's a really solidly built dude.Franklin looked pretty good to me, but there wasn't a ton of opportunity to see the RBs. He's quick though, and looks solidly built, and made a couple of impressive cuts in the background of some wide shots on the NFL Network coverage. I'm betting he's going to rise as this moves forward.I agree on Ellington - bigger than I expected too, and I think he's going to be another riser. Imagine him in Detroit, for example.Robbie Rouse is built like a brick ####house, but he's 5'6" I think. He's short, but like a fire hydrant with wheels. I'd be curious if anyone's got any perspective on him?

 

[EBF]

Robbie Rouse is built like a brick ####house, but he's 5'6" I think. He's short, but like a fire hydrant with wheels. I'd be curious if anyone's got any perspective on him?

Natural runner with good quickness and agility. Good vision and good in space. Question marks would be about speed and explosiveness. He's a crafty runner, but not a typical home run threat and not as big as a conventional power back. Seems like more of an overachiever whose lack of conventional metrics will relegate him to a situational role in the NFL. But you don't rush for 4000+ yards over a three year span without some talent...

 

[BruceAlmighty]

The thing that worries me about Wheaton is that of the top 40 wrs in receiving yds this year exactly one played in the PAC-12. And that's Steve Smith, and Utah wasn't in the conference when he was there. I really like what Keenan Allen brings to the table, but that's a tough stat to explain away.

Nothing more than random variance. Ochocinco and DeSean Jackson have been good. Lee is for real. Wheaton, Allen, Woods, and Wilson all have a chance. Josh Huff, Ty Montgomery, Kenneth Scott, and Paul Richardson could be decent prospects down the line.

Who are the best PAC 12 wrs of the last decade?

 

[EBF]

The thing that worries me about Wheaton is that of the top 40 wrs in receiving yds this year exactly one played in the PAC-12. And that's Steve Smith, and Utah wasn't in the conference when he was there. I really like what Keenan Allen brings to the table, but that's a tough stat to explain away.

Nothing more than random variance. Ochocinco and DeSean Jackson have been good. Lee is for real. Wheaton, Allen, Woods, and Wilson all have a chance. Josh Huff, Ty Montgomery, Kenneth Scott, and Paul Richardson could be decent prospects down the line.

Who are the best PAC 12 wrs of the last decade?

I just named them. Judging players based on the conference they come from is not a good practice. Brandon Marshall came from Central Florida. Roddy White from UAB. Vincent Jackson from Northern Colorado. Good players come from all over the place. I don't think you should judge them based on where they happened to play in college. Only on their individual merits.

 

[BruceAlmighty]

I disagree. I think you can learn a lot from trends. For instance, this years top 10 in receiving yards were Calvin, Andre, Brandon Marshall, demaryius Thomas, Vjax, Dez, Wayne, Welker, White and AJ Green. Seven of the ten are from or played college football in the southeast. 70% lies outside random variance. Also for the last decade the cream of the PAC-12 crop is ochocinco and djax. I'd say ochocinco was good but djax marginal. That means that entire conference produced one good wr the last decade. That's not random, it's a trend, and I think people should consider information like this when drafting in the future. Edit: This time last year everyone was talking about Robert Woods being a cant miss. He had one 100 yd game this year.

 

[Xue]

I disagree. I think you can learn a lot from trends. For instance, this years top 10 in receiving yards were Calvin, Andre, Brandon Marshall, demaryius Thomas, Vjax, Dez, Wayne, Welker, White and AJ Green. Seven of the ten are from or played college football in the southeast. 70% lies outside random variance. Also for the last decade the cream of the PAC-12 crop is ochocinco and djax. I'd say ochocinco was good but djax marginal. That means that entire conference produced one good wr the last decade. That's not random, it's a trend, and I think people should consider information like this when drafting in the future. Edit: This time last year everyone was talking about Robert Woods being a cant miss. He had one 100 yd game this year.

You're trying to say avoid all PAC12 WR's and go after ACC, SEC, and C-USA receivers?Robert Woods is overrated anyway. You've gotta watch each player and decide for yourself if he's talented or not. Don't just use his conference against him.

 

[BruceAlmighty]

I'm saying take into account all information. The PAC 12 has produced one good wr in the last decade while players from the southeast represent 70% of the top ten. 90% if you include Texas. Every year schools from the southeast put a disproportionate number of first rd picks in the nfl. I think this is information that everyone should take into account when doing fantasy drafts. I'm not saying just take southeastern guys, but if you have two prospects ranked close together then take the guy from the southeast. I do try to stay away from PAC 12 wrs. They usually underperform. I like Keenan Allen this year but it would be tough for me to pull the trigger because I don't believe you can call one good wr a decade an anomaly. The same applies to Nick Saban coached DBS. He has the rep of a secondary genius but in reality every secondary player he's coached has underachieved. Laron Landry is his only pro bowler.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

I'm saying take into account all information. The PAC 12 has produced one good wr in the last decade while players from the southeast represent 70% of the top ten. 90% if you include Texas. Every year schools from the southeast put a disproportionate number of first rd picks in the nfl. I think this is information that everyone should take into account when doing fantasy drafts. I'm not saying just take southeastern guys, but if you have two prospects ranked close together then take the guy from the southeast. I do try to stay away from PAC 12 wrs. They usually underperform. I like Keenan Allen this year but it would be tough for me to pull the trigger because I don't believe you can call one good wr a decade an anomaly. The same applies to Nick Saban coached DBS. He has the rep of a secondary genius but in reality every secondary player he's coached has underachieved. Laron Landry is his only pro bowler.

TJ Houshmanzadeh? Keyshawn Johnson? Before 1985 the Southwestern Athletic Conference produced no NFL WRs, but if you let that hold you up you missed out on the greatest WR of all time. Judging a player based on anything other than his personal talent is a fool's errand, imo.

 

[BruceAlmighty]

Keyshawn played 11 seasons and had 1000+ yds four times. Housh had 2 1000+ yd seasons in 10 years. With the exception of ochocinco, in the last decade the entire conference has produced 100's of wrs but one, maybe two, were better than average. Last year the conference had no wrs in the top 40. That's not a statistical outlier, it's a trend. No one in the last decade lost their league by picking PAC-12 wrs.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

Keyshawn played 11 seasons and had 1000+ yds four times. Housh had 2 1000+ yd seasons in 10 years. With the exception of ochocinco, in the last decade the entire conference has produced 100's of wrs but one, maybe two, were better than average. Last year the conference had no wrs in the top 40. That's not a statistical outlier, it's a trend. No one in the last decade lost their league by picking PAC-12 wrs.

Have you made a chart or something that shows this, or are you just basing that conclusion on your own perception?

 

[coolnerd]

While the Pac 10 or 12 or 14 has not been producing that much in top flight WRs, it looks like because the NFL did not think much of the talent. Look at where these guys were drafted. http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?position=WR&type=position2012 1st drafted Marvin jones 5th (Cal)2011 1st drafted Ryan Whalen 6th round (Stanford) 2010 1st drafted Dasmian williams 3rd round (USC)2009 1st drafted Patrick Turner 3rd round (USC)2008 1st drafted DeSean jackson 2nd round (Cal) So looks like while there is not a lot there from the Pac whatever, it is not accuarate they those have been busting in the truest sense. I mean 3rd round WRs are something like less than 25% of ever been useful players.

 

[msommer]

While the Pac 10 or 12 or 14 has not been producing that much in top flight WRs, it looks like because the NFL did not think much of the talent. Look at where these guys were drafted. http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?position=WR&type=position2012 1st drafted Marvin jones 5th (Cal)2011 1st drafted Ryan Whalen 6th round (Stanford) 2010 1st drafted Dasmian williams 3rd round (USC)2009 1st drafted Patrick Turner 3rd round (USC)2008 1st drafted DeSean jackson 2nd round (Cal) So looks like while there is not a lot there from the Pac whatever, it is not accuarate they those have been busting in the truest sense. I mean 3rd round WRs are something like less than 25% of ever been useful players.

I guess that is BruceAlmighty's point

 

[coolnerd]

While the Pac 10 or 12 or 14 has not been producing that much in top flight WRs, it looks like because the NFL did not think much of the talent. Look at where these guys were drafted. http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?position=WR&type=position2012 1st drafted Marvin jones 5th (Cal)2011 1st drafted Ryan Whalen 6th round (Stanford) 2010 1st drafted Dasmian williams 3rd round (USC)2009 1st drafted Patrick Turner 3rd round (USC)2008 1st drafted DeSean jackson 2nd round (Cal) So looks like while there is not a lot there from the Pac whatever, it is not accuarate they those have been busting in the truest sense. I mean 3rd round WRs are something like less than 25% of ever been useful players.

I guess that is BruceAlmighty's point

He seemed to sell as there were more high guys who did not make it, but I just wanted to find the facts. I will leave each to do what they will with it.

 

[Xue]

Barner at 5'9-1/4" 188 lbs didn't surprise me. Was listed at 5'11". And according to this article, he was 182 a week ago.

 

[EBF]

While the Pac 10 or 12 or 14 has not been producing that much in top flight WRs, it looks like because the NFL did not think much of the talent. Look at where these guys were drafted. http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?position=WR&type=position2012 1st drafted Marvin jones 5th (Cal)2011 1st drafted Ryan Whalen 6th round (Stanford) 2010 1st drafted Dasmian williams 3rd round (USC)2009 1st drafted Patrick Turner 3rd round (USC)2008 1st drafted DeSean jackson 2nd round (Cal) So looks like while there is not a lot there from the Pac whatever, it is not accuarate they those have been busting in the truest sense. I mean 3rd round WRs are something like less than 25% of ever been useful players.

I guess that is BruceAlmighty's point

It isn't even a point worth refuting. It's not like there's something inherently wrong with the Pac-12 conference that prevents it from putting out good receivers. The league has put players in the Pro Bowl at just about every position in recent years. There just haven't been that many great WR talents coming through the west coast lately. That's about to change in a big way with possibly 3-4 of these guys going in the first round in the next two drafts.

 

[BruceAlmighty]

My point is that in the last 10 years (which is a LONG time) if you picked a PAC 12 wr in the first few rounds of your rookie draft you were disappointed in the result. If it were the last 3-5 yrs then I could dismiss it as a statistical anomaly, but 10 yrs is more than just a run of bad luck.It is like buying stocks. If you knew tech companies for instance had produced 2 profitable companies in the last decade would you invest in the next one? Conversely, if you knew that 7 of the most profitable companies last year were tech companies wouldn't everyone have their checkbook out?I'm saying, by all means, do your due diligence on each player's potential return, but don't ignore obvious trends. It gives you a distinct advantage over your opponents.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

One thing I look at with WRs is how good or bad their college QB was. For instance Calvin Johnson had the less than great Reggie Ball flailing passes his way.

 

[JackReacher]

While the Pac 10 or 12 or 14 has not been producing that much in top flight WRs, it looks like because the NFL did not think much of the talent. Look at where these guys were drafted. http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?position=WR&type=position2012 1st drafted Marvin jones 5th (Cal)2011 1st drafted Ryan Whalen 6th round (Stanford) 2010 1st drafted Dasmian williams 3rd round (USC)2009 1st drafted Patrick Turner 3rd round (USC)2008 1st drafted DeSean jackson 2nd round (Cal) So looks like while there is not a lot there from the Pac whatever, it is not accuarate they those have been busting in the truest sense. I mean 3rd round WRs are something like less than 25% of ever been useful players.

I guess that is BruceAlmighty's point

He seemed to sell as there were more high guys who did not make it, but I just wanted to find the facts. I will leave each to do what they will with it.

have to do some research on BA's assertions, but I commend him for doing work in here.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Keyshawn played 11 seasons and had 1000+ yds four times. Housh had 2 1000+ yd seasons in 10 years. With the exception of ochocinco, in the last decade the entire conference has produced 100's of wrs but one, maybe two, were better than average. Last year the conference had no wrs in the top 40. That's not a statistical outlier, it's a trend. No one in the last decade lost their league by picking PAC-12 wrs.

The other Steve Smith (USC) started his career looking like a player - unfortunately he can't seem to recover from a devastating knee injury.

 

[BruceAlmighty]

I personally believe there is valuable information that a shark should consider when preparing for a rookie draft that very few are taking into account. I'll give another example. About a month or two ago I had, what I thought, was a healthy debate with some knowledgable posters about Lache Seastrunk vs Stepfan Taylor. This was back when Seastrunk was first getting a significant amount of carries. I said I'd rather have Seastrunk because he was a 5 star prospect leaving high school. This was when the Bills played Miami on Thursday night, and Mike Mayock said about CJ Spiller, "some athletes wake up in the morning with a certain something that other backs will never have". I completely agree, and that "certain something" is usually evident early in a player's development. Prodigious talent is evident at an early age, whether it's mathematics, music, or running with a football. In sports we call them beasts, in other aspects we call them prodigies, savants or wunderkinds. Now, do 5 stars bust? Sure they do. Do some 3 and 4 stars achieve great success by hard work and determination? Undoubtedly. But the 5 stars have that "certain something" that the other prospects will never attain, no matter how hard they work. Again, I'm not advocating picking only 5 star high school prospects, but if I rank two players closely I would select the player that was a 5 star. Your due diligence should be the primary factor to take into account, but I think it foolhardy to not consider aspects such as regional trends and early scouting reports. I just believe those are some things that sharks should use that the average ff'er never considers.

 

[Concept Coop]

I personally believe there is valuable information that a shark should consider when preparing for a rookie draft that very few are taking into account. I'll give another example. About a month or two ago I had, what I thought, was a healthy debate with some knowledgable posters about Lache Seastrunk vs Stepfan Taylor. This was back when Seastrunk was first getting a significant amount of carries. I said I'd rather have Seastrunk because he was a 5 star prospect leaving high school. This was when the Bills played Miami on Thursday night, and Mike Mayock said about CJ Spiller, "some athletes wake up in the morning with a certain something that other backs will never have". I completely agree, and that "certain something" is usually evident early in a player's development. Prodigious talent is evident at an early age, whether it's mathematics, music, or running with a football. In sports we call them beasts, in other aspects we call them prodigies, savants or wunderkinds. Now, do 5 stars bust? Sure they do. Do some 3 and 4 stars achieve great success by hard work and determination? Undoubtedly. But the 5 stars have that "certain something" that the other prospects will never attain, no matter how hard they work. Again, I'm not advocating picking only 5 star high school prospects, but if I rank two players closely I would select the player that was a 5 star. Your due diligence should be the primary factor to take into account, but I think it foolhardy to not consider aspects such as regional trends and early scouting reports. I just believe those are some things that sharks should use that the average ff'er never considers.

Why use a player's high school body of work over his college body of work? It should be pretty easy to see who is a speical athlete and who isn't, regardless of what a recruting site had to say 3-4 years ago.Besides, we are drafting these players after the NFL has their say and invests in them. I would much rather put stock in what the NFL thinks about a player today, again, than a recruiting site thought about them when they were 17 years old.

 

[Concept Coop]

While the Pac 10 or 12 or 14 has not been producing that much in top flight WRs, it looks like because the NFL did not think much of the talent. Look at where these guys were drafted. http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?position=WR&type=position2012 1st drafted Marvin jones 5th (Cal)2011 1st drafted Ryan Whalen 6th round (Stanford) 2010 1st drafted Dasmian williams 3rd round (USC)2009 1st drafted Patrick Turner 3rd round (USC)2008 1st drafted DeSean jackson 2nd round (Cal) So looks like while there is not a lot there from the Pac whatever, it is not accuarate they those have been busting in the truest sense. I mean 3rd round WRs are something like less than 25% of ever been useful players.

I guess that is BruceAlmighty's point

Is it his point? If so - shouldn't we then simply trust the NFL?

 

[SayWhat?]

I too applaud BruceAlmighty's thoughts on the PAC 10 WR's, but coolnerd's point regarding where PAC 10 WR's have been drafted into the NFL is far more relevant to his point IMO. If the NFL doesn't feel that a PAC 10 WR is worthy of being drafted early in the NFL draft, then that WR likely won't be drafted highly in rookie drafts. If the NFL does feel that a PAC 10 WR is worthy of being a high draft pick, then he's likely worthy of being a high rookie draft pick. There simply haven't been, to the best of my knowledge, many PAC 10 WR's drafted highly in the NFL draft in the past decade. Hence, that's part of the reason there haven't been many highly productive PAC 10 WR's in the NFL in the past decade.

 

[thriftyrocker]

The reason Seastrunk excites me is he reminds me a lot of Jamaal Charles. Charles was a 4star prospect in HS. 5 stars in Charles' HS Class (2005): Antone Smith, Marlon Lucky, Jonathan Stewart, Toney Baker, Kevin Grady, Rashard Mendenhall, LaMarcus Coker, Jason Gwaltney. TJ Yeldon and Todd Gurley were both 4 star prospects, and are worth more in dev leagues than all the 5 star guys in their class. One guy coming out this year who was a 5 star prospect is Christine Michael - are you bumping him a lot because of this?

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I try not to say much until after the combine since I think it's key for figuring out whose game will translate from college to the pros and whose won't, but here are some initial thoughts on players I think I have a fairly good feel for pre Indy... subject to change...Matt Barkley has some flaws, but I believe he's the best QB in the class and I'd be pretty surprised if he's not the first QB taken.Tyler Bray has some fairly public behavioral/discipline dings and he'll need to put some weight on, but I'd still rather take a chance on him than almost anyone else other than Barkley.If Eddie Lacy is anywhere near his listed measurables (est 5'10, 220, 4.53) and the medical and background stuff checks out he's easily the best back in the draft, and I'd expect him to be drafted in the back half of the first round.Stepfan Taylor appears to be a nice, solid back and a fairly low-risk 2nd round type guy.Kerwynn Williams might be the SOD as a 3rd down back with small, three-down back potential. He's listed at 4.44 and his stock rises pretty quickly with an official time faster than that.In general I think this WR class might be seriously overrated right now. One or two guys will blow up the combine and justify the hype, but there aren't five or six top tier prospects IMO.But I am leaning towards Quinton Patton as a really good prospect. Compares to Darrell Jackson and Cecil Shorts -- maybe better as an NFL #2, but potentially capable of playing as a #1.In 2010 we had the three Gs -- Gronkowski, Gresham and Graham. In 2013 it's the three Es -- Escobar, Ertz and Eifert. They aren't as good as the 2010 class, but all three should be solid pros and FF relevant at a minimum.

 

[BruceAlmighty]

To coolnerd's post, that's a large part of my point but not it entirely. Yes, the nfl hasn't thought much of their talent, but even going back to when Mike Williams was a seemingly sure fire choice, he busted spectacularly. And again, I can't stress this enough, I'm not saying to just use these two pieces of info. I'm saying take it into account. It's been my experience in life that the best decisions are made only after you evaluate all available information. Also, in essence, ff is all about predicting the future. We weigh factors such as injury history, athleticism, situation etc to come to an informed decision. I am a firm believer that the best way to predict future behavior is by examine past behavior. Again, I'm not saying use these two factors and only these two. I'm saying consider them. I can't see a reasonable person dismissing a stat like an entire decade of subpar wrs by saying its an aberration or a run of bad luck. I have also found that it's helpful to consider high school rankings when looking for players that have "it". Bryce Brown is a perfect example. And again, I'm not saying this system is perfect because no system is perfect.In sum, my point is these are two pieces of readily available information that you should CONSIDER when preparing for drafts.

 

[Concept Coop]

Tyler Bray has some fairly public behavioral/discipline dings and he'll need to put some weight on, but I'd still rather take a chance on him than almost anyone else other than Barkley.

I really agree. He clearly has an NFL arm and that is enough for me to at least keep my eye open and see where he lands. I have heard the Mallett talk, but he isn't that immobile.

If Eddie Lacy is anywhere near his listed measurables (est 5'10, 220, 4.53) and the medical and background stuff checks out he's easily the best back in the draft, and I'd expect him to be drafted in the back half of the first round.

I would be pretty surprised to see him weigh in at 220. I think 230 is more likely, which could make his 40 time important. But I agree with you; best back in the draft and worthy of a 1st round pick.

 

[BruceAlmighty]

The reason Seastrunk excites me is he reminds me a lot of Jamaal Charles. Charles was a 4star prospect in HS. 5 stars in Charles' HS Class (2005): Antone Smith, Marlon Lucky, Jonathan Stewart, Toney Baker, Kevin Grady, Rashard Mendenhall, LaMarcus Coker, Jason Gwaltney. TJ Yeldon and Todd Gurley were both 4 star prospects, and are worth more in dev leagues than all the 5 star guys in their class. One guy coming out this year who was a 5 star prospect is Christine Michael - are you bumping him a lot because of this?

Yeldon got bumped to a 5 star late in the process. There was a fierce battle between Alabama and Auburn to land him. But Gurley is an example of a 4 star that has played like a 5. But if I were choosing between the two right now, I'd take Yeldon. His foot speed is among the quickest I've ever seen.Christine Michael worries me on a few fronts. One is injury history, two is it seems like he for whatever reason could never grab the lion's share of the carries. I'm also not as high on Lacy as most. Before the lsu game, lsu dc said "Eddie lacy is a great back, but Yeldon keeps me awake at night". Bama has historically had a fairly even timeshare except for last year when trich got about 70% of the work to Lacy's 30%. Lacy looks great behind that oline but the fact that sec coaches don't consider him the best back on his team is a significant issue IMO.

 

[Concept Coop]

I'm also not as high on Lacy as most. Before the lsu game, lsu dc said "Eddie lacy is a great back, but Yeldon keeps me awake at night". Bama has historically had a fairly even timeshare except for last year when trich got about 70% of the work to Lacy's 30%. Lacy looks great behind that oline but the fact that sec coaches don't consider him the best back on his team is a significant issue IMO.

You're placing way too much stock in one quote. For all we know he was simply talking about speed. And if Mark Ingram is right, and Yeldon does go on to be better than Richardson, Ingram, Lacy - what will it matter IF Lacy wasn't better than him? Early in the season, Yeldon looked like the better back. But it was very clear that Lacy was the best back on the squad once he started healing up. Yeldon's feet is actually what worries me about him. I wouldn't even say he has quicker feet than Lacy. Lacy makes more poeple miss than Yeldon did, by a good margin, even. Yeldon just had another gear. It is the reason I liek Gurley more than Yeldon today. And the reason the AP comparision doesn't quite hold true.

 

[BruceAlmighty]

I believe the single most important factor in projecting this rb class is situation. For instance I like Bernard's skill set the best in this class, but if he goes to a timeshare situation and lacy or ball go to green bay or cincy or atl then I would move them ahead of Gio.The one guy I'm targeting in all rookie drafts is Da'Rick Rogers. I think he is the closest to a sure thing in this class. I understand the character issues but IMO that could provide tremendous value. He's got a Julio type body, explosiveness, strength to get off press coverage, versatile enough to play all 3 positions, and incredible toughness. Rob Rang watched his tape from tennesse and said he never dropped a ball due to being hit. He's a freak.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

The one guy I'm targeting in all rookie drafts is Da'Rick Rogers. I think he is the closest to a sure thing in this class. I understand the character issues but IMO that could provide tremendous value. He's got a Julio type body, explosiveness, strength to get off press coverage, versatile enough to play all 3 positions, and incredible toughness. Rob Rang watched his tape from tennesse and said he never dropped a ball due to being hit. He's a freak.

Yes, a 2nd round pick with 1st round talent.

 

[BeTheMatch]

The one guy I'm targeting in all rookie drafts is Da'Rick Rogers. I think he is the closest to a sure thing in this class. I understand the character issues but IMO that could provide tremendous value. He's got a Julio type body, explosiveness, strength to get off press coverage, versatile enough to play all 3 positions, and incredible toughness. Rob Rang watched his tape from tennesse and said he never dropped a ball due to being hit. He's a freak.

Yes, a 2nd round pick with 1st round talent.

Who's certifiably nuts. Not touching him.

 

[BruceAlmighty]

I'm also not as high on Lacy as most. Before the lsu game, lsu dc said "Eddie lacy is a great back, but Yeldon keeps me awake at night". Bama has historically had a fairly even timeshare except for last year when trich got about 70% of the work to Lacy's 30%. Lacy looks great behind that oline but the fact that sec coaches don't consider him the best back on his team is a significant issue IMO.

You're placing way too much stock in one quote. For all we know he was simply talking about speed. And if Mark Ingram is right, and Yeldon does go on to be better than Richardson, Ingram, Lacy - what will it matter IF Lacy wasn't better than him? Early in the season, Yeldon looked like the better back. But it was very clear that Lacy was the best back on the squad once he started healing up. Yeldon's feet is actually what worries me about him. I wouldn't even say he has quicker feet than Lacy. Lacy makes more poeple miss than Yeldon did, by a good margin, even. Yeldon just had another gear. It is the reason I liek Gurley more than Yeldon today. And the reason the AP comparision doesn't quite hold true.

Valid points all around. I just respectfully disagree. I'm not saying Lacy is a bad prospect, I just like other guys more. But if Lacy ends up in Atlanta, Pitt, or Cincy I'll have him at the top of my board. Another thing is how nfl teams are moving away from the big bruising backs. With a couple of exceptions, most great rbs are south of 6 feet. Basically I'm splitting hairs. The rb that ultimately will be at the top of my board will be the guy that lands in the best situation.

 

[BruceAlmighty]

The one guy I'm targeting in all rookie drafts is Da'Rick Rogers. I think he is the closest to a sure thing in this class. I understand the character issues but IMO that could provide tremendous value. He's got a Julio type body, explosiveness, strength to get off press coverage, versatile enough to play all 3 positions, and incredible toughness. Rob Rang watched his tape from tennesse and said he never dropped a ball due to being hit. He's a freak.

Yes, a 2nd round pick with 1st round talent.

Who's certifiably nuts. Not touching him.

If everyone that failed a drug test were certifiable nuts, this country would be a great big loony bin. On second thought this country IS a great big loony bin. Hmmm...

 

[BeTheMatch]

The one guy I'm targeting in all rookie drafts is Da'Rick Rogers. I think he is the closest to a sure thing in this class. I understand the character issues but IMO that could provide tremendous value. He's got a Julio type body, explosiveness, strength to get off press coverage, versatile enough to play all 3 positions, and incredible toughness. Rob Rang watched his tape from tennesse and said he never dropped a ball due to being hit. He's a freak.

Yes, a 2nd round pick with 1st round talent.

Who's certifiably nuts. Not touching him.

If everyone that failed a drug test were certifiable nuts, this country would be a great big loony bin. On second thought this country IS a great big loony bin. Hmmm...

I'm not going to re-hash it all, because I don't remember the exact details, but there was a lot more information out there on Rogers that had nothing to do with drugs. The guy has psychiatric issues according to what I read, and has been involved in some very, very serious stuff. I couldn't care less about him smoking dope.

 

[EBF]

I don't disagree that a guy like Seastrunk has more talent than a guy like Taylor. I just disagree with your reasoning, which seemed to be, "He's better because he was a five star recruit." I can name a whole lot of five star recruits who didn't have much talent. High school recruiting rankings are not a perfect gauge of a player's ability. For one thing, football is a game largely based on strength and speed, and those qualities sometimes take a while to develop. Meanwhile, most recruiting rankings and scholarship offers are based on what a player does in his sophomore and junior seasons, when he's only 15-17 years old. A player who peaks early is going to look better than a player who has a higher ceiling, but is still developing. There are lots of Pro Bowl guys in the NFL who were lightly recruited in high school. There are lots of five star high school prospects who can't even make an NFL roster. I look at the recruiting rankings kind of like how I look at the NFL draft. There's a pretty strong correlation between a player's ranking and his talent level, but that doesn't mean that the rankings are gospel. There are always going to be overrated players and underrated stars who slip through the cracks.

 

[BruceAlmighty]

Read this scouting report on Rogers:http://walterfootball.com/scoutingreport2013drogers.phpAlso keep in mind these "concerns" are the same that we're being said about Josh Gordon last year. He's a big time recruit from the southeast that led the SEC in receiving as a sophomore. The only knock is that he smoked pot. He could fail drug tests in the future but this is a gamble I'm willing to take.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

I personally believe there is valuable information that a shark should consider when preparing for a rookie draft that very few are taking into account. I'll give another example. About a month or two ago I had, what I thought, was a healthy debate with some knowledgable posters about Lache Seastrunk vs Stepfan Taylor. This was back when Seastrunk was first getting a significant amount of carries. I said I'd rather have Seastrunk because he was a 5 star prospect leaving high school. This was when the Bills played Miami on Thursday night, and Mike Mayock said about CJ Spiller, "some athletes wake up in the morning with a certain something that other backs will never have". I completely agree, and that "certain something" is usually evident early in a player's development. Prodigious talent is evident at an early age, whether it's mathematics, music, or running with a football. In sports we call them beasts, in other aspects we call them prodigies, savants or wunderkinds. Now, do 5 stars bust? Sure they do. Do some 3 and 4 stars achieve great success by hard work and determination? Undoubtedly. But the 5 stars have that "certain something" that the other prospects will never attain, no matter how hard they work. Again, I'm not advocating picking only 5 star high school prospects, but if I rank two players closely I would select the player that was a 5 star. Your due diligence should be the primary factor to take into account, but I think it foolhardy to not consider aspects such as regional trends and early scouting reports. I just believe those are some things that sharks should use that the average ff'er never considers.

Why use a player's high school body of work over his college body of work? It should be pretty easy to see who is a speical athlete and who isn't, regardless of what a recruting site had to say 3-4 years ago.Besides, we are drafting these players after the NFL has their say and invests in them. I would much rather put stock in what the NFL thinks about a player today, again, than a recruiting site thought about them when they were 17 years old.

Well, I don't know that anyone is implying valuing HS work OVER college work, but I do think it can help you, especially if you are using "work" to mean "statistics". Two differences between HS and college: workload and supervision. In HS a star player is almost certainly the best player on his team and is the focus of the offense so he has a higher workload. The offense usually runs through him. In college a player could be very good but still surrounded by good teammates and not see the workload he did in HS. In terms of supervision, obviously there is much more in HS when the player is living with his family than there is in college surrounded by frat parties and coeds. It's reasonable for anyone to take some time to adjust and mature when given less supervision. The way I would use HS rankings is more of an end of the bench type of check where you're looking for a couple of dynasty stashes among the waiver fodder of your league. Look for the guys who were stars in HS but underperformed in college. Off the top of my head I think that a couple of hard to pronounce Auburn WRs were drafted late a number of years back but had been outstanding in HS. I thought that maybe Auburn wasn't using their WRs as well as they could. Neither Obomanu or Aromashodu have been FF starters or anything but they've had their moments at times and were better than most of the other guys available who are long gone from the NFL.

 

[BeTheMatch]

Read this scouting report on Rogers:

http://walterfootball.com/scoutingreport2013drogers.php

Also keep in mind these "concerns" are the same that we're being said about Josh Gordon last year. He's a big time recruit from the southeast that led the SEC in receiving as a sophomore. The only knock is that he smoked pot. He could fail drug tests in the future but this is a gamble I'm willing to take.

Just because you keep saying these things doesn't make them true. That is not the only knock. There was stuff all over the Internet and in newspaper articles about this guy that had nothing to do with pot. But you do whatever you want. I really don't care. But what you're saying simply is factually incorrect.

 

[BruceAlmighty]

I don't disagree that a guy like Seastrunk has more talent than a guy like Taylor. I just disagree with your reasoning, which seemed to be, "He's better because he was a five star recruit." I can name a whole lot of five star recruits who didn't have much talent. High school recruiting rankings are not a perfect gauge of a player's ability. For one thing, football is a game largely based on strength and speed, and those qualities sometimes take a while to develop. Meanwhile, most recruiting rankings and scholarship offers are based on what a player does in his sophomore and junior seasons, when he's only 15-17 years old. A player who peaks early is going to look better than a player who has a higher ceiling, but is still developing. There are lots of Pro Bowl guys in the NFL who were lightly recruited in high school. There are lots of five star high school prospects who can't even make an NFL roster. I look at the recruiting rankings kind of like how I look at the NFL draft. There's a pretty strong correlation between a player's ranking and his talent level, but that doesn't mean that the rankings are gospel. There are always going to be overrated players and underrated stars who slip through the cracks.

Come on man, I have never once said that "high school rankings are a perfect gauge of a player's ability". In fact, I said (repeatedly) that it ISN'T perfect, but it's something a savvy owner should CONSIDER when evaluating. Surely you read that.

 

[BruceAlmighty]

Read this scouting report on Rogers:

http://walterfootball.com/scoutingreport2013drogers.php

Also keep in mind these "concerns" are the same that we're being said about Josh Gordon last year. He's a big time recruit from the southeast that led the SEC in receiving as a sophomore. The only knock is that he smoked pot. He could fail drug tests in the future but this is a gamble I'm willing to take.

Just because you keep saying these things doesn't make them true. That is not the only knock. There was stuff all over the Internet and in newspaper articles about this guy that had nothing to do with pot. But you do whatever you want. I really don't care. But what you're saying simply is factually incorrect.

You got a link?

 

[Xue]

The reason Seastrunk excites me is he reminds me a lot of Jamaal Charles. Charles was a 4star prospect in HS. 5 stars in Charles' HS Class (2005): Antone Smith, Marlon Lucky, Jonathan Stewart, Toney Baker, Kevin Grady, Rashard Mendenhall, LaMarcus Coker, Jason Gwaltney. TJ Yeldon and Todd Gurley were both 4 star prospects, and are worth more in dev leagues than all the 5 star guys in their class. One guy coming out this year who was a 5 star prospect is Christine Michael - are you bumping him a lot because of this?

Seastrunk compares more favorably to CJ Spiller. A bit thicker than Charles and not as much wiggle.

 

[BeTheMatch]

Read this scouting report on Rogers:

http://walterfootball.com/scoutingreport2013drogers.php

Also keep in mind these "concerns" are the same that we're being said about Josh Gordon last year. He's a big time recruit from the southeast that led the SEC in receiving as a sophomore. The only knock is that he smoked pot. He could fail drug tests in the future but this is a gamble I'm willing to take.

Just because you keep saying these things doesn't make them true. That is not the only knock. There was stuff all over the Internet and in newspaper articles about this guy that had nothing to do with pot. But you do whatever you want. I really don't care. But what you're saying simply is factually incorrect.

You got a link?

My link

 

[MAC_32]

Read this scouting report on Rogers:

http://walterfootball.com/scoutingreport2013drogers.php

Also keep in mind these "concerns" are the same that we're being said about Josh Gordon last year. He's a big time recruit from the southeast that led the SEC in receiving as a sophomore. The only knock is that he smoked pot. He could fail drug tests in the future but this is a gamble I'm willing to take.

Just because you keep saying these things doesn't make them true. That is not the only knock. There was stuff all over the Internet and in newspaper articles about this guy that had nothing to do with pot. But you do whatever you want. I really don't care. But what you're saying simply is factually incorrect.

Walter has gotten better over the years, but he totally missed the mark here. From a character perspective Rogers and Gordon are night and day. Really just think those defending Rogers weren't following him as he fell off the cliff in Tennessee and the news is getting buried now. Zero denying his physical gifts, also zero denying some huge concerns north of his neck. As a fantasy owner, on board - just don't bring him anywhere near my NFL team.

 

[Concept Coop]

From a character perspective Rogers and Gordon are night and day. Really just think those defending Rogers weren't following him as he fell off the cliff in Tennessee and the news is getting buried now. Zero denying his physical gifts, also zero denying some huge concerns north of his neck. As a fantasy owner, on board - just don't bring him anywhere near my NFL team.

Can someone just tell us what else he did?

 

[BruceAlmighty]

Read this scouting report on Rogers:

http://walterfootball.com/scoutingreport2013drogers.php

Also keep in mind these "concerns" are the same that we're being said about Josh Gordon last year. He's a big time recruit from the southeast that led the SEC in receiving as a sophomore. The only knock is that he smoked pot. He could fail drug tests in the future but this is a gamble I'm willing to take.

Just because you keep saying these things doesn't make them true. That is not the only knock. There was stuff all over the Internet and in newspaper articles about this guy that had nothing to do with pot. But you do whatever you want. I really don't care. But what you're saying simply is factually incorrect.

You got a link?

My link

You have proven my point precisely. This is why I am targeting Rogers. The vast majority of owners won't do their homework and provide savvy owners massive value by dismissing him out of hand because of his reputation.

 

[BruceAlmighty]

From a character perspective Rogers and Gordon are night and day. Really just think those defending Rogers weren't following him as he fell off the cliff in Tennessee and the news is getting buried now. Zero denying his physical gifts, also zero denying some huge concerns north of his neck. As a fantasy owner, on board - just don't bring him anywhere near my NFL team.

Can someone just tell us what else he did?

He was involved in a bar fight with multiple UT players and had various verbal altercations with Derek Dooley. He was never officially booted off the team, he was suspended for the drug test and left around the same time Brown left. He hasn't been the only player to butt heads with Dooley.