[Dynasty] 2014 Draft Prospects (2 Viewers)

[Penguin]

Fresno State WR Josh Harper had a huge game tonight., 17 receptions, 253 yards and 2 TD's.

 

[Xue]

Already plenty of Freeman talk in here and the other college prospects thread, just "search this topic" in the top right of your screen and you'll find a number of posts referencing him.

After Seastrunk there's not a draft eligible RB that I'd rather have than Freeman.

I have Freeman, Tre Mason, and Ameer Abdullah pretty close. Each guy does certain things better than the other.

 

[Penguin]

Already plenty of Freeman talk in here and the other college prospects thread, just "search this topic" in the top right of your screen and you'll find a number of posts referencing him.

After Seastrunk there's not a draft eligible RB that I'd rather have than Freeman.

I have Freeman, Tre Mason, and Ameer Abdullah pretty close. Each guy does certain things better than the other.

I need to watch more of Mason, I have my Tivo set up to record a replay of Auburn's game

 

[Mister CIA]

I won't dredge through the Lee thing as we already had a discussion on him earlier. I am however curious as to why Beckham is so high on the list. Personally, I like his teammate more than him as it translates to the NFL.

Beckham can be a star in the NFL. His change of direction and leaping skills are elite to me. He does have some concentration drops, but he wins a lot of jumpballs. He has elite YAC ability. I don't think he has elite speed, though, but that's fine, he won't need it. I've seen some Golden Tate comparisons, but I think his ceiling is much higher.

Landry is a solid WR but I don't see a high ceiling. Can be a very good slot guy like Brandon Gibson (not a straight up comparison). He does lay out for balls and can stretch and snatch, but mostly falling away and doesn't get too far off the ground. Beckham simply elevates much higher and can jump over DBs effortlessly.

I'd be very surprised if Jarvis Landry is anything less than a star in the NFL; Reggie Wayne II.

As a fan of both the NFL and serendipity, I hope the Colts draft him.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

Already plenty of Freeman talk in here and the other college prospects thread, just "search this topic" in the top right of your screen and you'll find a number of posts referencing him.

After Seastrunk there's not a draft eligible RB that I'd rather have than Freeman.

I have Freeman, Tre Mason, and Ameer Abdullah pretty close. Each guy does certain things better than the other.

I like Abdullah's skill set but he's too small and skinny to ever be the primary ball carrier in an NFL RBBC imo. I doubt he'll ever end up on any of my fantasy teams.

I prefer Freeman over Mason due to Freeman's explosiveness, but I like Mason an awful lot too. Might very well end up being one of my top 5 favourite backs of the draft class as well.

 

[Xue]

Already plenty of Freeman talk in here and the other college prospects thread, just "search this topic" in the top right of your screen and you'll find a number of posts referencing him.

After Seastrunk there's not a draft eligible RB that I'd rather have than Freeman.

I have Freeman, Tre Mason, and Ameer Abdullah pretty close. Each guy does certain things better than the other.

I like Abdullah's skill set but he's too small and skinny to ever be the primary ball carrier in an NFL RBBC imo. I doubt he'll ever end up on any of my fantasy teams.

I prefer Freeman over Mason due to Freeman's explosiveness, but I like Mason an awful lot too. Might very well end up being one of my top 5 favourite backs of the draft class as well.

Abdullah is not too small nor too skinny. He's 5'9" 190 and squats 500+. His build is no worse than Ellington's, and you liked Ellington. So it doesn't make sense to me.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

Already plenty of Freeman talk in here and the other college prospects thread, just "search this topic" in the top right of your screen and you'll find a number of posts referencing him.

After Seastrunk there's not a draft eligible RB that I'd rather have than Freeman.

I have Freeman, Tre Mason, and Ameer Abdullah pretty close. Each guy does certain things better than the other.

I like Abdullah's skill set but he's too small and skinny to ever be the primary ball carrier in an NFL RBBC imo. I doubt he'll ever end up on any of my fantasy teams.

I prefer Freeman over Mason due to Freeman's explosiveness, but I like Mason an awful lot too. Might very well end up being one of my top 5 favourite backs of the draft class as well.

Abdullah is not too small nor too skinny. He's 5'9" 190 and squats 500+. His build is no worse than Ellington's, and you liked Ellington. So it doesn't make sense to me.

Abdullah doesn't look as thick to me as Ellington did in college. I don't think Abdullah will measure in as bulky as Ellington did at the combine at 5'9 199lbs, but we'll find out for sure in February. Plus I don't think Abdullah is at Ellington's elite level of quickness.

 

[Faust]

NFL Draft Prospects: Top-32

 

[Faust]

2014 NFL Draft: Seminoles may have nation's best running backs

 

[Faust]

What we learned from Week 10 in college football

2014 NFL Draft: Week 10 Stock Report

 

[Faust]

Tajh Boyd, C.J. Mosley top prospects to watch down stretch

 

[Faust]

2014 NFL Draft: ASU's Marion Grice is nice, especially on third down

 

[EBF]

Another player trending upward after an injury-plagued 2012 season is Buffalo RB Branden Oliver. He started the season slowly then sat out a game against Stony Brook with minor injuries. In five games since returning he has 769 rushing yards on 141 carries (5.45 YPC). Right now I'd say he's probably a day 3 draft pick, but he will have a chance to move up the charts in the postseason.

249 rushing yards against Ohio on Tuesday night.

928 yards in his last five games.

 

[lyon812]

Melvin Gordon may stay in school:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000277429/article/wisconsins-melvin-gordon-likely-to-stay-in-school-tweet-says

The tweet reads, "Source close to Melvin Gordon tells me it would be shocking if the RB declared for the draft this year. Says he wants run at the Heisman"

 

[ConnSKINS26]

That would be disappointing. Him leaving with so little wear on his tires would be awesome.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Another player trending upward after an injury-plagued 2012 season is Buffalo RB Branden Oliver. He started the season slowly then sat out a game against Stony Brook with minor injuries. In five games since returning he has 769 rushing yards on 141 carries (5.45 YPC). Right now I'd say he's probably a day 3 draft pick, but he will have a chance to move up the charts in the postseason.

249 rushing yards against Ohio on Tuesday night.

928 yards in his last five games.

Hey EBF, are your rankings still exclusive somewhere else? Are they behind a pay wall? Found myself doing the rounds checking out various rankings today and was hoping to be able to see yours, but I don't remember where they are. Thought you used to have a link in the sig.

 

[EBF]

Another player trending upward after an injury-plagued 2012 season is Buffalo RB Branden Oliver. He started the season slowly then sat out a game against Stony Brook with minor injuries. In five games since returning he has 769 rushing yards on 141 carries (5.45 YPC). Right now I'd say he's probably a day 3 draft pick, but he will have a chance to move up the charts in the postseason.

249 rushing yards against Ohio on Tuesday night.

928 yards in his last five games.

Hey EBF, are your rankings still exclusive somewhere else? Are they behind a pay wall? Found myself doing the rounds checking out various rankings today and was hoping to be able to see yours, but I don't remember where they are. Thought you used to have a link in the sig.

My rankings were on the FF Toolbox forums last year. I haven't posted any yet this year.

 

[DexterDew]

That would be disappointing. Him leaving with so little wear on his tires would be awesome.

Agreed!

 

[EBF]

If you want some 2014 rankings I've posted some basic stuff in this thread. Right now I've got the first tier as:

WR Marqise Lee

WR Sammy Watkins

RB Lache Seastrunk

WR Allen Robinson

TE Eric Ebron

RB Melvin Gordon

No strong opinion on Watkins vs. Lee yet. Lee is more the type of athlete that I prefer, but Watkins might be the more explosive and dynamic player in the NFL. If I had to make the 1.01 pick today I could see myself taking any of my top 3 guys. No firm preference there yet.

Second tier would be:

RB Jeremy Hill

RB Bishop Sankey

WR Odell Beckham

WR Donte Moncrief

WR Mike Evans

QB Teddy Bridgewater

QB Marcus Mariota

I automatically bump QBs down a tier because they're not very valuable outside of 2QB, superflex, or other formats where they score a lot. Not necessarily a huge Sankey fan, but I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt right now. I think the combine is really important for players like him who put up great stats, but don't obviously have freak athletic qualities. With good numbers he will start to look more like Doug Martin. With bad numbers he will look more like Montee Ball.

Third tier would look something like:

RB Devonta Freeman

RB Michael Dyer

RB Carlos Hyde

RB KaDeem Carey

RB Branden Oliver

WR Davante Adams

WR Brandin Cooks

WR Jordan Matthews

WR Antwan Goodley

WR Jarvis Landry

WR Paul Richardson

WR Rashad Greene

TE Jace Amaro

TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins

QB Johnny Manziel

I could list a lot more names as candidates for the third tier and there are some unlisted players who have a chance to be high picks, but these are a lot of the key names. The combine looms as a huge data point and I'm sure there will be some movement based on how these players test and how they look in positional drills.

Also there isn't necessarily a lot of differentiation between the second and third tier players and I'm not that informed on this QB class. I know people are down on Manziel for various reasons, but to me he's an interesting player who could end up being something like a better Jeff Garcia if he can rein in his rock star persona and his reckless playing style.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Way super preliminary RB rankings. It's only for the guys I'm following and based strictly on estimated measurables at this point (so subject to bigger changes than most):

Todd Gurley
Keith Marshall
T.J. Yeldon
Mike Davis
Lache Seastrunk

De'Anthony Thomas
Duke Johnson
Jeremy Hill

Ka'Deem Carey

Marion Grice

Melvin Gordon
Davonta Freeman
Bishop Sankey
James Wilder Jr.

Some of the guys in that bottom group will show better than listed and get bumped up (maybe dramatically), but as of today I'm worried they're similar to Joseph Randle and Montee Ball -- good college backs, but not great pros. Throw in a small school guy, plus a couple major conference late bloomers and the 2015 class has got a chance to be outstanding IMO.

 

[BeTheMatch]

Way super preliminary RB rankings. It's only for the guys I'm following and based strictly on estimated measurables at this point (so subject to bigger changes than most):

Todd Gurley

Keith Marshall

T.J. Yeldon

Mike Davis

Lache Seastrunk

De'Anthony Thomas

Duke Johnson

Jeremy Hill

Ka'Deem Carey

Marion Grice

Melvin Gordon

Davonta Freeman

Bishop Sankey

James Wilder Jr.

Some of the guys in that bottom group will show better than listed and get bumped up (maybe dramatically), but as of today I'm worried they're similar to Joseph Randle and Montee Ball -- good college backs, but not great pros. Throw in a small school guy, plus a couple major conference late bloomers and the 2015 class has got a chance to be outstanding IMO.

A lot of these guys aren't draft-eligible in 2014, so...

 

[Milkman]

If you want some 2014 rankings I've posted some basic stuff in this thread. Right now I've got the first tier as:

WR Marqise Lee

WR Sammy Watkins

RB Lache Seastrunk

WR Allen Robinson

TE Eric Ebron

RB Melvin Gordon

No strong opinion on Watkins vs. Lee yet. Lee is more the type of athlete that I prefer, but Watkins might be the more explosive and dynamic player in the NFL. If I had to make the 1.01 pick today I could see myself taking any of my top 3 guys. No firm preference there yet.

Second tier would be:

RB Jeremy Hill

RB Bishop Sankey

WR Odell Beckham

WR Donte Moncrief

WR Mike Evans

QB Teddy Bridgewater

QB Marcus Mariota

I automatically bump QBs down a tier because they're not very valuable outside of 2QB, superflex, or other formats where they score a lot. Not necessarily a huge Sankey fan, but I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt right now. I think the combine is really important for players like him who put up great stats, but don't obviously have freak athletic qualities. With good numbers he will start to look more like Doug Martin. With bad numbers he will look more like Montee Ball.

Third tier would look something like:

RB Devonta Freeman

RB Michael Dyer

RB Carlos Hyde

RB KaDeem Carey

RB Branden Oliver

WR Davante Adams

WR Brandin Cooks

WR Jordan Matthews

WR Antwan Goodley

WR Jarvis Landry

WR Paul Richardson

WR Rashad Greene

TE Jace Amaro

TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins

QB Johnny Manziel

I could list a lot more names as candidates for the third tier and there are some unlisted players who have a chance to be high picks, but these are a lot of the key names. The combine looms as a huge data point and I'm sure there will be some movement based on how these players test and how they look in positional drills.

Also there isn't necessarily a lot of differentiation between the second and third tier players and I'm not that informed on this QB class. I know people are down on Manziel for various reasons, but to me he's an interesting player who could end up being something like a better Jeff Garcia if he can rein in his rock star persona and his reckless playing style.

Interesting that you have Allen Robinson in your top tier. What do you like so much about him that you think will translate to the NFL? He seems slow but he's def a play maker.

 

[EBF]

Interesting that you have Allen Robinson in your top tier. What do you like so much about him that you think will translate to the NFL? He seems slow but he's def a play maker.

He's just a great natural WR. Cut from the same cloth as guys like Reggie Wayne and AJ Green. When they measure his height/weight at the combine he's probably going to come out looking pretty thin like those two. He's a tall guy and he has a strong upper body, but he's not really a huge physical presence like an Andre Johnson/TO. He's more of a technical/finesse player. I think he has a complete skill set. Economical route runner with just enough first step quickness to thrive, good body control and strong hands to win contested catches, and dangerous in the open field.

Some of his better plays from this season:

YAC - http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9887127

speed and jump ball skills - http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9917022

route running/YAC - http://youtu.be/gNv5U8pgiY0?t=38s

The guy is just a baller. He's never going to win the height/weight/speed olympics, but he's actually a quite good athlete and he has everything in terms of fluidity and innate receiving skills that you want in a WR. I'd take him over any WR from the 2013 draft. Some team is going to grab him in the late 1st and he's going to have a great career. Maybe never as a top 5 Pro Bowl kind of guy, but at the very least as a Decker type of player.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Robinson kind of reminds me of Hopkins a bit, but taller. The natural WR without outstanding measurements. Are you coming around on those types of prospects, I remember you weren't a fan of Hopkins perceived ceiling? Or is my comparison off completely between the two?

 

[EBF]

Robinson kind of reminds me of Hopkins a bit, but taller. The natural WR without outstanding measurements. Are you coming around on those types of prospects, I remember you weren't a fan of Hopkins perceived ceiling? Or is my comparison off completely between the two?

I think he's better than Hopkins. Hopkins might be a bit stronger, but he's not very dangerous in space. He's just an efficient route runner with toughness and hands. There's not a lot of dynamic qualities to his game. Robinson is a much better YAC threat and deep threat. He can make people miss in tight spaces, he can sneak by them deep, and he can sky over people to win the jump ball. You can use him at every level of the field. He's a complete player whose only flaw is that he's a B+/A- type of athlete instead of an A+ like an Andre Johnson or Demaryius.

To answer your question, I think I've always been pretty good at evaluating RBs, but my WR stuff has been a lot more inconsistent. I've been refining that over the last couple years trying to improve my hit rate. Around 2011 I started to develop more of an appreciation for economy of movement and initial quickness. I started to see that even though a guy like Jon Baldwin is big and athletic in a certain sense, without those efficient movement skills and that initial sharp burst he was cooked as an NFL player. On the other hand, I started to see how a guy like Rueben Randle could dominate despite being just a totally pedestrian height-weight-speed-explosiveness athlete. You go back and watch his highlights of his last year at LSU and he's just killing his man every play. That's because he has total fluidity and a really sharp initial burst. Looking at those things started to give me some clues about what's really essential for a WR.

However, last year I discovered that almost all of the top WRs in the NFL are also freak athletes, and that kind of warped my perspective back to overrating physique and measurables. Hence why I got in trouble downgrading someone like Keenan Allen (who I'd always liked) too severely while overhyping some other players like Chris Harper and Marcus Davis who looked the part of a Pro Bowler walking off the bus, but didn't have all of the movement skills. Seeing guys like AJ Green, Keenan Allen, Rueben Randle, and even Robert Woods excel in the NFL has kind of brought it all full circle for me.

You can be successful without being fluid if you're some kind of a freak athlete (like Mike Wallace), but overall I'd say an explosive first step and economical overall movement are two most essential traits for a really good NFL WR. Hands are really important too and the player's frame/speed/explosive will also play a huge role in determining his ceiling. For example, Kevin Walter was actually a solid athlete and economical player, but since there was nothing special there besides that he was merely an average NFL starter and never a great player. Same with somebody like Nate Burleson or Andre Roberts. They're actually very good, but the lack of wow qualities limits what they can become. The risk of drafting a modest athlete like Rueben Randle or Robert Woods is that he becomes that type of player.

Robinson is a little different because he actually has some wow qualities in addition to being just a fluid player. He's taller than average. Probably about 6'2". He has long arms and a big catch radius. He may actually be a little faster than people think. In some of his clips you can see him varying his speeds and actually running right by people. He's a pretty dynamic open field runner for a tall receiver. They use him a lot on bubble screens at Penn State because of how shifty he is in traffic. And maybe the key trait is that he seems to have a lot of the jump ball/body control/elasticity qualities of guys like AJ Green and Sidney Rice. Rueben Randle was a nice athlete, but I never saw him make the spectacular catches that I've seen Robinson make. I posted one example above. This was another good one:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DW0eCjm9KqU

 

[jurb26]

Tracking the ball is easily the most overlooked quality of WR prospects and EBF, I think that is one you are still missing.

You mentioned AJ Green several times in your post and not once mentioned that portion of his game, which IMO is the best portion of it. He and Fitz are the two best college players I've ever seen at tracking the ball and AJ is the best in the NFL at it currently. It is the reason Baldwin has never been a good WR and one of the main reason guys with super athletic skill fail.

Simply watch a few Green highlights closely and you will see what I'm talking about. His ability to locate the ball and then position himself appropriately is unreal. Of course all the other things he can do enhance that and make him the unreal talent he is. This, however is what is most overlooked and under appreciated.

 

[Xue]

Interesting that you have Allen Robinson in your top tier. What do you like so much about him that you think will translate to the NFL? He seems slow but he's def a play maker.

He's just a great natural WR. Cut from the same cloth as guys like Reggie Wayne and AJ Green. When they measure his height/weight at the combine he's probably going to come out looking pretty thin like those two. He's a tall guy and he has a strong upper body, but he's not really a huge physical presence like an Andre Johnson/TO. He's more of a technical/finesse player. I think he has a complete skill set. Economical route runner with just enough first step quickness to thrive, good body control and strong hands to win contested catches, and dangerous in the open field.

Some of his better plays from this season:

YAC - http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9887127

speed and jump ball skills - http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9917022

route running/YAC - http://youtu.be/gNv5U8pgiY0?t=38s

The guy is just a baller. He's never going to win the height/weight/speed olympics, but he's actually a quite good athlete and he has everything in terms of fluidity and innate receiving skills that you want in a WR. I'd take him over any WR from the 2013 draft. Some team is going to grab him in the late 1st and he's going to have a great career. Maybe never as a top 5 Pro Bowl kind of guy, but at the very least as a Decker type of player.

He could be a Decker type but you have him your first tier?

I don't see how much different or better Robinson is from DeVante Parker, who I feel is much more fluid and is arguably the best jumpball artist in this draft. I have those two pretty close. One minor thing that concerns me about Robinson is his very little usage in the Red Zone: only 1 RZ reception.

 

[EBF]

Interesting that you have Allen Robinson in your top tier. What do you like so much about him that you think will translate to the NFL? He seems slow but he's def a play maker.

He's just a great natural WR. Cut from the same cloth as guys like Reggie Wayne and AJ Green. When they measure his height/weight at the combine he's probably going to come out looking pretty thin like those two. He's a tall guy and he has a strong upper body, but he's not really a huge physical presence like an Andre Johnson/TO. He's more of a technical/finesse player. I think he has a complete skill set. Economical route runner with just enough first step quickness to thrive, good body control and strong hands to win contested catches, and dangerous in the open field.

Some of his better plays from this season:

YAC - http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9887127

speed and jump ball skills - http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9917022

route running/YAC - http://youtu.be/gNv5U8pgiY0?t=38s

The guy is just a baller. He's never going to win the height/weight/speed olympics, but he's actually a quite good athlete and he has everything in terms of fluidity and innate receiving skills that you want in a WR. I'd take him over any WR from the 2013 draft. Some team is going to grab him in the late 1st and he's going to have a great career. Maybe never as a top 5 Pro Bowl kind of guy, but at the very least as a Decker type of player.

He could be a Decker type but you have him your first tier?

I don't see how much different or better Robinson is from DeVante Parker, who I feel is much more fluid and is arguably the best jumpball artist in this draft. I have those two pretty close. One minor thing that concerns me about Robinson is his very little usage in the Red Zone: only 1 RZ reception.

If Decker is his downside and AJ Green/Reggie Wayne is his ceiling then he's well worth a high rookie pick. I think he's more like the latter two and that's why I expect him to get picked in the first round if he runs 4.55 or better. Maybe he's similar style-wise to Parker, but Parker is just an inferior version of the same type of player. Robinson has more than twice the receiving yards this year. He's second in the nation in yards per game and a lot of that is coming on his own merit. He's not just getting a huge volume of targets. He's routinely busting huge plays. At least six 40+ yard catches this year. He has become one of the best big play artists in the country and I think that's what really pushed him from being a second tier player that I liked in the offseason to now looking like a first round talent.

 

[Xue]

Interesting that you have Allen Robinson in your top tier. What do you like so much about him that you think will translate to the NFL? He seems slow but he's def a play maker.

He's just a great natural WR. Cut from the same cloth as guys like Reggie Wayne and AJ Green. When they measure his height/weight at the combine he's probably going to come out looking pretty thin like those two. He's a tall guy and he has a strong upper body, but he's not really a huge physical presence like an Andre Johnson/TO. He's more of a technical/finesse player. I think he has a complete skill set. Economical route runner with just enough first step quickness to thrive, good body control and strong hands to win contested catches, and dangerous in the open field.

Some of his better plays from this season:

YAC - http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9887127

speed and jump ball skills - http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9917022

route running/YAC - http://youtu.be/gNv5U8pgiY0?t=38s

The guy is just a baller. He's never going to win the height/weight/speed olympics, but he's actually a quite good athlete and he has everything in terms of fluidity and innate receiving skills that you want in a WR. I'd take him over any WR from the 2013 draft. Some team is going to grab him in the late 1st and he's going to have a great career. Maybe never as a top 5 Pro Bowl kind of guy, but at the very least as a Decker type of player.

He could be a Decker type but you have him your first tier?

I don't see how much different or better Robinson is from DeVante Parker, who I feel is much more fluid and is arguably the best jumpball artist in this draft. I have those two pretty close. One minor thing that concerns me about Robinson is his very little usage in the Red Zone: only 1 RZ reception.

If Decker is his downside and AJ Green/Reggie Wayne is his ceiling then he's well worth a high rookie pick. I think he's more like the latter two and that's why I expect him to get picked in the first round if he runs 4.55 or better. Maybe he's similar style-wise to Parker, but Parker is just an inferior version of the same type of player. Robinson has more than twice the receiving yards this year. He's second in the nation in yards per game and a lot of that is coming on his own merit. He's not just getting a huge volume of targets. He's routinely busting huge plays. At least six 40+ yard catches this year. He has become one of the best big play artists in the country and I think that's what really pushed him from being a second tier player that I liked in the offseason to now looking like a first round talent.

In what way is Parker inferior? Robinson has a lot of 40+ yard catches because has a lot of catches, period. He actually has 8 tied with Tevin Reese for the lead. 12.1% of his receptions are 40+. 11.1 % of Parker's 40+. Not much different. Total stats are very misleading.

Robinson's production is up because....well...I won't bother repeating myself.

I'm very surprised you don't even have Parker listed anywhere above. I'd most certainly put him above Moncrief.

 

[EBF]

In what way is Parker inferior?

Not as good in his overall movement. Not as sudden or agile. Plays too upright.

There's a reason why he has modest stats even with Bridgewater at QB. He's an okay player. A good player at the college level. Robinson is a star at the college level. He gets more targets and opportunities because he's good enough to command them.

You love to take two players with a similar playing style and hype up the thrift store version while slagging the deluxe version. Jarius Wright/Kendall Wright. Alfred Blue/TJ Yeldon. Odell Beckham/Marqise Lee (though that one's closer). I think this is just another example. There's a reason why Robinson is more productive and why he's rated higher at places like Draft Scout. It's not because nobody else watches the games. Parker just isn't as good.

 

[Xue]

In what way is Parker inferior?

Not as good in his overall movement. Not as sudden or agile. Plays too upright.

There's a reason why he has modest stats even with Bridgewater at QB. He's an okay player. A good player at the college level. Robinson is a star at the college level. He gets more targets and opportunities because he's good enough to command them.

You love to take two players with a similar playing style and hype up the thrift store version while slagging the deluxe version. Jarius Wright/Kendall Wright. Alfred Blue/TJ Yeldon. Odell Beckham/Marqise Lee (though that one's closer). I think this is just another example. There's a reason why Robinson is more productive and why he's rated higher at places like Draft Scout. It's not because nobody else watches the games. Parker just isn't as good.

Draft Scout is not gospel. Nor any other "source". They have Parker rated as a 3rd-4th rounder. Tell me, you agree with each player ranking? I didn't think so. There's a reason why they also have Bishop Sankey ranked #1 among Juniors. What do you have to say about that? They must not watch games when it comes to Sankey, but they do when it comes to Robinson? Comical.

I've already explained why Parker isn't productive. Oh and he has more TDs in less receptions than Robinson. Yes, very modest stats. ;-)

When did I ever slag down Robinson? I have them ranked next to each other. I'm not sure why you get so riled up EBF and start getting personal and bring up old news. Would you like me to point out some of your misses? I didn't think so.

 

[Faust]

Video: Arizona's Ka'Deem Carey rising, Hokies' Logan Thomas falling

 

[Faust]

QB rankings: Massive matchups ahead for top signal-callers

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Clemson junior WR Sammy Watkins is averaging 9.71 yards after the catch this season.
This is a ridiculous number, and as Greg Peshek notes, Tavon Austin's eight-plus YAD average last year was an outlier. Watkins averages 10.1 yards after the catch on non-screens, per Peshek. Also, Watkins' favorite routes appear to be posts and corners and comebacks.

Source: Second Round Stats

Cal junior TE Richard Rodgers is leaning towards entering the 2014 NFL Draft, according to draft insider Tony Pauline.
"Rodgers is an interesting situation," Pauline explains. "He dropped 33 pounds before the season started and really took on to his new position, which is receiver... He is the prototypical new age tight end." From a team standpoint, Cal is terrible. We wouldn't be surprised to see Rodgers jump to the pros, especially with his NFL bloodlines.

Source: TFY Draft Insider

Details have emerged regarding UNC senior QB Bryn Renner's injured left shoulder, including a torn labrum and fractured scapula.
Renner will have surgery this week. The senior had previously dislocated his left shoulder in high school, but this injury is a bit more serious. He will likely miss all or most of the pre-draft process, similar to Sean Renfree's situation last year.

Source: The Daily Tarheel

Alabama junior WR Christion Jones said senior QB A.J. McCarron's "brain is so at Nick Saban's level."
Jones was making this statement regarding McCarron's ability to break down coverages and running the team's offense. We've consistently stated that McCarron understands his limitations and is an extension of the coaching staff on the field, performing the correct first or second read in a clean pocket. We are interested to see how he handles LSU's pass rush on Saturday.

Source: Jeremy Fowler on Twitter

NFL.com's Bucky Brooks believes Northern Illinois senior QB Jordan Lynch will have to make a position change at the next level.
"He simply is not a talented enough passer to make it as a classic quarterback, yet he is so explosive as a runner that there is definitely a place for Lynch in the NFL," Brooks wrote. Lynch "should follow the blueprint of Denard Robinson," according to Brooks, "and enter the league designated as an offensive weapon. He could contribute to an offense as a running back-wide receiver and also serve as quarterback on trick plays or in Wildcat formation." Lynch is putting up monster numbers again this season, but, at 6-0, 216 pounds, he doesn't have the size or arm strength to succeed under center in the NFL.

Source: NFL.com

ESPN's Steve Muench believes that "a team with a proven starter entering or in his 30s ... could hit the jackpot if it can land Virginia Tech QB Logan Thomas in the third round or later."
"The argument of throwing him in the fire while he learns is worth considering but that didn't help Josh Freeman, a talented quarterback with similar natural tools," Muench wrote. "Thomas would be better off sitting early in his career so he can take the time to learn an offense, build chemistry with his receivers and most important work on his footwork, which will lead to better accuracy." We tend to agree with Muench's viewpoint. Thomas' maddeningly inconsistent play doesn't warrant a first- or second-round pick, but he becomes a fascinating prospect for a team that doesn't need an immediate starter once 70-or-so names have come off the board.

Source: ESPN Insider

CBS Sports' Dane Brugler is starting to lean more towards Fresno State's Derek Carr as the top senior QB in the country.
"If you’re looking for a technically-sound passer with flawless footwork who stands in the face of pressure, then Carr likely isn’t your guy," Brugler writes. "But if you want a quarterback with a golden arm, quick release and the appetite for football, then Carr will grow on you the more you watch him..." Brugler goes on to suggest a top-10 selection is a real possibility. Just like this Stafford comparison, expect to read some mentioning Carr and Cutler in the same sentence.

Source: CBS Sports

 

[ConnSKINS26]

I can't believe anyone's still talking about Logan Thomas as anything but a potential TE convert. He's an awful QB, I don't care how full his toolbox is.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Robinson kind of reminds me of Hopkins a bit, but taller. The natural WR without outstanding measurements. Are you coming around on those types of prospects, I remember you weren't a fan of Hopkins perceived ceiling? Or is my comparison off completely between the two?

I think he's better than Hopkins. Hopkins might be a bit stronger, but he's not very dangerous in space. He's just an efficient route runner with toughness and hands. There's not a lot of dynamic qualities to his game. Robinson is a much better YAC threat and deep threat. He can make people miss in tight spaces, he can sneak by them deep, and he can sky over people to win the jump ball. You can use him at every level of the field. He's a complete player whose only flaw is that he's a B+/A- type of athlete instead of an A+ like an Andre Johnson or Demaryius.

To answer your question, I think I've always been pretty good at evaluating RBs, but my WR stuff has been a lot more inconsistent. I've been refining that over the last couple years trying to improve my hit rate. Around 2011 I started to develop more of an appreciation for economy of movement and initial quickness. I started to see that even though a guy like Jon Baldwin is big and athletic in a certain sense, without those efficient movement skills and that initial sharp burst he was cooked as an NFL player. On the other hand, I started to see how a guy like Rueben Randle could dominate despite being just a totally pedestrian height-weight-speed-explosiveness athlete. You go back and watch his highlights of his last year at LSU and he's just killing his man every play. That's because he has total fluidity and a really sharp initial burst. Looking at those things started to give me some clues about what's really essential for a WR.

However, last year I discovered that almost all of the top WRs in the NFL are also freak athletes, and that kind of warped my perspective back to overrating physique and measurables. Hence why I got in trouble downgrading someone like Keenan Allen (who I'd always liked) too severely while overhyping some other players like Chris Harper and Marcus Davis who looked the part of a Pro Bowler walking off the bus, but didn't have all of the movement skills. Seeing guys like AJ Green, Keenan Allen, Rueben Randle, and even Robert Woods excel in the NFL has kind of brought it all full circle for me.

You can be successful without being fluid if you're some kind of a freak athlete (like Mike Wallace), but overall I'd say an explosive first step and economical overall movement are two most essential traits for a really good NFL WR. Hands are really important too and the player's frame/speed/explosive will also play a huge role in determining his ceiling. For example, Kevin Walter was actually a solid athlete and economical player, but since there was nothing special there besides that he was merely an average NFL starter and never a great player. Same with somebody like Nate Burleson or Andre Roberts. They're actually very good, but the lack of wow qualities limits what they can become. The risk of drafting a modest athlete like Rueben Randle or Robert Woods is that he becomes that type of player.

Robinson is a little different because he actually has some wow qualities in addition to being just a fluid player. He's taller than average. Probably about 6'2". He has long arms and a big catch radius. He may actually be a little faster than people think. In some of his clips you can see him varying his speeds and actually running right by people. He's a pretty dynamic open field runner for a tall receiver. They use him a lot on bubble screens at Penn State because of how shifty he is in traffic. And maybe the key trait is that he seems to have a lot of the jump ball/body control/elasticity qualities of guys like AJ Green and Sidney Rice. Rueben Randle was a nice athlete, but I never saw him make the spectacular catches that I've seen Robinson make. I posted one example above. This was another good one:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DW0eCjm9KqU

Was just re-watching the PSU-Michigan game and his catch two plays before that one was almost as good. Kept one foot planted in the field of play as he fell out of bounds catching the ball. In real time, it didn't look like it was even close to being a catch. But in slo-mo you see he keeps his left foot planted in bounds, controls the ball and keeps his right foot off the out of bounds line. Just great body control.

 

[EBF]

In what way is Parker inferior?

Not as good in his overall movement. Not as sudden or agile. Plays too upright.

There's a reason why he has modest stats even with Bridgewater at QB. He's an okay player. A good player at the college level. Robinson is a star at the college level. He gets more targets and opportunities because he's good enough to command them.

You love to take two players with a similar playing style and hype up the thrift store version while slagging the deluxe version. Jarius Wright/Kendall Wright. Alfred Blue/TJ Yeldon. Odell Beckham/Marqise Lee (though that one's closer). I think this is just another example. There's a reason why Robinson is more productive and why he's rated higher at places like Draft Scout. It's not because nobody else watches the games. Parker just isn't as good.

Draft Scout is not gospel. Nor any other "source". They have Parker rated as a 3rd-4th rounder. Tell me, you agree with each player ranking? I didn't think so. There's a reason why they also have Bishop Sankey ranked #1 among Juniors. What do you have to say about that? They must not watch games when it comes to Sankey, but they do when it comes to Robinson? Comical.

I've already explained why Parker isn't productive. Oh and he has more TDs in less receptions than Robinson. Yes, very modest stats. ;-)

When did I ever slag down Robinson? I have them ranked next to each other. I'm not sure why you get so riled up EBF and start getting personal and bring up old news. Would you like me to point out some of your misses? I didn't think so.

I see Parker as a day 3 talent, so from my perspective comparing a probable top 30-45 pick like Robinson to him is a bit of an insult to Robinson. The reason why I brought up those other comparisons is because I think they're pertinent to the argument. Since I think you have a pretty strong tendency to overscrutinize highly touted prospects and overrate sleepers, it's hard for me to take your analysis seriously when you say that Robinson is no better than Parker.

As far as Draft Scout goes, it's a good general gauge of how the scouting community views these players. Especially with regards to seniors and juniors since those players are closer to being known quantities than freshmen and sophomores. I don't take it as gospel, but if my rankings are ever hugely out of step with their projections then it will at least give me pause. In this case I feel pretty comfortable that Robinson >> Parker and that the NFL will weigh in with a similar verdict in May when he goes a few rounds higher.

 

[EBF]

I can't believe anyone's still talking about Logan Thomas as anything but a potential TE convert. He's an awful QB, I don't care how full his toolbox is.

Yes. Absolutely horrendous QB. I'm a big believer in "mental talent" at QB. When people talk about tools they usually mean height/size/athleticism/arm strength, but I think poise/accuracy/anticipation are part of the toolbox too. Those are critical areas and that's where I think Thomas is sorely lacking.

 

[EBF]

Was just re-watching the PSU-Michigan game and his catch two plays before that one was almost as good. Kept one foot planted in the field of play as he fell out of bounds catching the ball. In real time, it didn't look like it was even close to being a catch. But in slo-mo you see he keeps his left foot planted in bounds, controls the ball and keeps his right foot off the out of bounds line. Just great body control.

People often talk about the "it" factor at QB. I don't think it's quite as important at WR. I think being a great WR is basically just a matter of having great athleticism, the right frame, and good hands. But there's something to be said for those guys who have great positional awareness and body control. Those seem to be innate things and I feel like Robinson is a natural in that sense. He may not be an absolutely top shelf pure athlete, but he has "it" as much as WR can. I mean that not just in terms of the ball skills and the leaping catches, but also in his route running and open field vision. Here's a good hype reel from Penn State with some of his better plays from this season so far (I think the catch you mentioned is actually on this reel):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dyx_eMtL1NE

I don't think he's a mortal lock to become a top 10 NFL WR, but I do think he's basically a can't-miss bet to at least become a solid NFL starter. I brought up Keenan Allen and Rueben Randle because I think they're similar in the sense that they can just flat out play the game despite not having the scary measurables on paper. Robinson is cut from the same cloth except he's a better pure athlete. I think that bodes well for his chances of becoming an effective pro.

 

[Xue]

In what way is Parker inferior?

Not as good in his overall movement. Not as sudden or agile. Plays too upright.

There's a reason why he has modest stats even with Bridgewater at QB. He's an okay player. A good player at the college level. Robinson is a star at the college level. He gets more targets and opportunities because he's good enough to command them.

You love to take two players with a similar playing style and hype up the thrift store version while slagging the deluxe version. Jarius Wright/Kendall Wright. Alfred Blue/TJ Yeldon. Odell Beckham/Marqise Lee (though that one's closer). I think this is just another example. There's a reason why Robinson is more productive and why he's rated higher at places like Draft Scout. It's not because nobody else watches the games. Parker just isn't as good.

Draft Scout is not gospel. Nor any other "source". They have Parker rated as a 3rd-4th rounder. Tell me, you agree with each player ranking? I didn't think so. There's a reason why they also have Bishop Sankey ranked #1 among Juniors. What do you have to say about that? They must not watch games when it comes to Sankey, but they do when it comes to Robinson? Comical.

I've already explained why Parker isn't productive. Oh and he has more TDs in less receptions than Robinson. Yes, very modest stats. ;-)

When did I ever slag down Robinson? I have them ranked next to each other. I'm not sure why you get so riled up EBF and start getting personal and bring up old news. Would you like me to point out some of your misses? I didn't think so.

I see Parker as a day 3 talent, so from my perspective comparing a probable top 30-45 pick like Robinson to him is a bit of an insult to Robinson. The reason why I brought up those other comparisons is because I think they're pertinent to the argument. Since I think you have a pretty strong tendency to overscrutinize highly touted prospects and overrate sleepers, it's hard for me to take your analysis seriously when you say that Robinson is no better than Parker.

As far as Draft Scout goes, it's a good general gauge of how the scouting community views these players. Especially with regards to seniors and juniors since those players are closer to being known quantities than freshmen and sophomores. I don't take it as gospel, but if my rankings are ever hugely out of step with their projections then it will at least give me pause. In this case I feel pretty comfortable that Robinson >> Parker and that the NFL will weigh in with a similar verdict in May when he goes a few rounds higher.

And you have a tendency to only praise highly touted prospects or height/weight/speed guys. Marcus Davis? Brandon Coleman? How about high BMI RBs? Stepfan Taylor? Spencer Ware? Yet you were down on Zac Stacy. Economical movement? Down on Andre Ellington?

I like Robinson a lot. I like Parker more than you. A lot of these WRs in this class are closer than you think. What happens if Robinson does poorly at the combine? Time to move him down? Just another possession receiver like Hopkins? But the tape doesn't lie right?

 

[Xue]

I can't believe anyone's still talking about Logan Thomas as anything but a potential TE convert. He's an awful QB, I don't care how full his toolbox is.

He's no different than MarQueis Gray. I'd rather have James Franklin.

 

[Xue]

Here are my current tiered RB rankings.

Legend: *=JR, **=rSO

• 1. Melvin Gordon**
• 2. Lache Seastrunk*

• 3. Bishop Sankey*
• 4. Jeremy Hill**
• 5. Antonio Andrews
• 6. Devonta Freeman*
• 7. Ameer Abdullah*
• 8. Tre Mason*

• 9. David Fluellen
• 10.Charles Sims
• 11.James White
• 12.Marion Grice
• 13.James Wilder, Jr.*
• 14.Silas Redd
• 15.Ka'Deem Carey*
• 16.Roderick McDowell

• 17.Andre Williams
• 18.Tim Flanders
• 19.Glasco Martin

Some talented draft-eligible underclassmen (for next year) who I don't see declaring (in the order that I like them):

• Jay Ajayi**
• Tre Madden**
• Karlos Williams*
• Dominique Brown*
• Michael Dyer*
• Corey Grant*
• Jordon James*
• Treyvon Green*
• Jerome Smith*

 

[EBF]

And you have a tendency to only praise highly touted prospects or height/weight/speed guys. Marcus Davis? Brandon Coleman? How about high BMI RBs? Stepfan Taylor? Spencer Ware? Yet you were down on Zac Stacy. Economical movement? Down on Andre Ellington?

I like Robinson a lot. I like Parker more than you. A lot of these WRs in this class are closer than you think. What happens if Robinson does poorly at the combine? Time to move him down? Just another possession receiver like Hopkins? But the tape doesn't lie right?

Never liked Brandon Coleman. Never spent a rookie pick on Marcus Davis. Ware and Taylor were late picks in the NFL draft and late picks in my rookie draft. Putting aside the fact that Ware looked like a decent player in the preseason and made Seattle's roster against the odds, I'm not going to shed any tears over my 4th round rookie picks that bust. Almost everyone in that range is going to bust. You're picking different flavors of crap. Having said that, I do try to evaluate my own practices and learn from my mistakes. I already admitted that I put too much emphasis on workout numbers in my 2013 WR rankings.

I feel pretty good about my Robinson assessment. I've seen him do things that Hopkins can't do. Hopkins may offer more as a pure possession WR, but Robinson trumps him in several areas that I already mentioned. Better in jump ball situations. Better runner after the catch. Better overall big play threat. If he runs 4.55 and only jumps 33" in the vertical leap, I'll still feel that way. Judging by what I've seen, he's probably not a candidate to bomb his workouts much worse than that.

I like this WR class quite a bit, but I see more differentiation than you do. I think you are a little too forgiving of sleeper prospects and a little too eager to find flaws in the first tier guys. You dedicate an entire video to Marqise Lee's catching technique, but make no mention of Paul Richardson's rail thin frame or the fact that Brandin Cooks is a midget. I don't think you hold all these players to the same standards and that makes it difficult to take the conspiracy theories seriously.

The nice thing about this hobby is that you can put your opinions on the record and if you're right, you'll get credit for it. I don't agree with some of your takes on the WR class, but maybe there are some good calls there. Time will tell.

 

[BigTex]

One thing is for sure with the match-ups this weekend there will be a lot of unanswered questions answered. High caliber draft picks going against some REAL competition.

Giddy Up,

Tex

 

[BigTex]

If you want some 2014 rankings I've posted some basic stuff in this thread. Right now I've got the first tier as:

WR Marqise Lee

WR Sammy Watkins

RB Lache Seastrunk

WR Allen Robinson

TE Eric Ebron

RB Melvin Gordon

No strong opinion on Watkins vs. Lee yet. Lee is more the type of athlete that I prefer, but Watkins might be the more explosive and dynamic player in the NFL. If I had to make the 1.01 pick today I could see myself taking any of my top 3 guys. No firm preference there yet.

Second tier would be:

RB Jeremy Hill

RB Bishop Sankey

WR Odell Beckham

WR Donte Moncrief

WR Mike Evans

QB Teddy Bridgewater

QB Marcus Mariota

I automatically bump QBs down a tier because they're not very valuable outside of 2QB, superflex, or other formats where they score a lot. Not necessarily a huge Sankey fan, but I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt right now. I think the combine is really important for players like him who put up great stats, but don't obviously have freak athletic qualities. With good numbers he will start to look more like Doug Martin. With bad numbers he will look more like Montee Ball.

Third tier would look something like:

RB Devonta Freeman

RB Michael Dyer

RB Carlos Hyde

RB KaDeem Carey

RB Branden Oliver

WR Davante Adams

WR Brandin Cooks

WR Jordan Matthews

WR Antwan Goodley

WR Jarvis Landry

WR Paul Richardson

WR Rashad Greene

TE Jace Amaro

TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins

QB Johnny Manziel

I could list a lot more names as candidates for the third tier and there are some unlisted players who have a chance to be high picks, but these are a lot of the key names. The combine looms as a huge data point and I'm sure there will be some movement based on how these players test and how they look in positional drills.

Also there isn't necessarily a lot of differentiation between the second and third tier players and I'm not that informed on this QB class. I know people are down on Manziel for various reasons, but to me he's an interesting player who could end up being something like a better Jeff Garcia if he can rein in his rock star persona and his reckless playing style.

You have a HUGE gap between Eric Ebron and Jace Amaro, what is it about Jace that he is so low on your list?

Tex

 

[EBF]

If you want some 2014 rankings I've posted some basic stuff in this thread. Right now I've got the first tier as:

WR Marqise Lee

WR Sammy Watkins

RB Lache Seastrunk

WR Allen Robinson

TE Eric Ebron

RB Melvin Gordon

No strong opinion on Watkins vs. Lee yet. Lee is more the type of athlete that I prefer, but Watkins might be the more explosive and dynamic player in the NFL. If I had to make the 1.01 pick today I could see myself taking any of my top 3 guys. No firm preference there yet.

Second tier would be:

RB Jeremy Hill

RB Bishop Sankey

WR Odell Beckham

WR Donte Moncrief

WR Mike Evans

QB Teddy Bridgewater

QB Marcus Mariota

I automatically bump QBs down a tier because they're not very valuable outside of 2QB, superflex, or other formats where they score a lot. Not necessarily a huge Sankey fan, but I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt right now. I think the combine is really important for players like him who put up great stats, but don't obviously have freak athletic qualities. With good numbers he will start to look more like Doug Martin. With bad numbers he will look more like Montee Ball.

Third tier would look something like:

RB Devonta Freeman

RB Michael Dyer

RB Carlos Hyde

RB KaDeem Carey

RB Branden Oliver

WR Davante Adams

WR Brandin Cooks

WR Jordan Matthews

WR Antwan Goodley

WR Jarvis Landry

WR Paul Richardson

WR Rashad Greene

TE Jace Amaro

TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins

QB Johnny Manziel

I could list a lot more names as candidates for the third tier and there are some unlisted players who have a chance to be high picks, but these are a lot of the key names. The combine looms as a huge data point and I'm sure there will be some movement based on how these players test and how they look in positional drills.

Also there isn't necessarily a lot of differentiation between the second and third tier players and I'm not that informed on this QB class. I know people are down on Manziel for various reasons, but to me he's an interesting player who could end up being something like a better Jeff Garcia if he can rein in his rock star persona and his reckless playing style.

You have a HUGE gap between Eric Ebron and Jace Amaro, what is it about Jace that he is so low on your list?

Tex

I should probably have him in the second tier. I don't think he's as athletic as Ebron though. Not as agile or good at route running.

With the way teams are using TEs in the NFL right now, a pure receiving specialist like him could have a lot of value. He's tall and quick off the line. I just don't get the same wow factor with him as I do with Ebron.

 

[Xue]

And you have a tendency to only praise highly touted prospects or height/weight/speed guys. Marcus Davis? Brandon Coleman? How about high BMI RBs? Stepfan Taylor? Spencer Ware? Yet you were down on Zac Stacy. Economical movement? Down on Andre Ellington?

I like Robinson a lot. I like Parker more than you. A lot of these WRs in this class are closer than you think. What happens if Robinson does poorly at the combine? Time to move him down? Just another possession receiver like Hopkins? But the tape doesn't lie right?

Never liked Brandon Coleman. Never spent a rookie pick on Marcus Davis. Ware and Taylor were late picks in the NFL draft and late picks in my rookie draft. Putting aside the fact that Ware looked like a decent player in the preseason and made Seattle's roster against the odds, I'm not going to shed any tears over my 4th round rookie picks that bust. Almost everyone in that range is going to bust. You're picking different flavors of crap. Having said that, I do try to evaluate my own practices and learn from my mistakes. I already admitted that I put too much emphasis on workout numbers in my 2013 WR rankings.

I feel pretty good about my Robinson assessment. I've seen him do things that Hopkins can't do. Hopkins may offer more as a pure possession WR, but Robinson trumps him in several areas that I already mentioned. Better in jump ball situations. Better runner after the catch. Better overall big play threat. If he runs 4.55 and only jumps 33" in the vertical leap, I'll still feel that way. Judging by what I've seen, he's probably not a candidate to bomb his workouts much worse than that.

I like this WR class quite a bit, but I see more differentiation than you do. I think you are a little too forgiving of sleeper prospects and a little too eager to find flaws in the first tier guys. You dedicate an entire video to Marqise Lee's catching technique, but make no mention of Paul Richardson's rail thin frame or the fact that Brandin Cooks is a midget. I don't think you hold all these players to the same standards and that makes it difficult to take the conspiracy theories seriously.

The nice thing about this hobby is that you can put your opinions on the record and if you're right, you'll get credit for it. I don't agree with some of your takes on the WR class, but maybe there are some good calls there. Time will tell.

Paul Richardson is rail thin. You know who else is/was rail thin? AJ Green. Marvin Harrison. Titus Young. Let me guess, you're concerned about injury with Richardson? But you're not with Lee, who is thicker, yet can't stay healthy either? Comical. Richardson changes direction very well for someone so "thin" and can plant and cut very well.

Brandin Cooks is a "midget"? Uhh...Steve Smith? Antonio Brown? Heck even Kendall Wright could be considered a "midget". He's only 1/8" taller than Brown. I expect Brandin Cooks to blow up the combine and confirm that his explosiveness on tape is not a fluke.

Let me know when you want to do some real analysis on these players. Just not stereotype them.

 

[Xue]

If you want some 2014 rankings I've posted some basic stuff in this thread. Right now I've got the first tier as:

WR Marqise Lee

WR Sammy Watkins

RB Lache Seastrunk

WR Allen Robinson

TE Eric Ebron

RB Melvin Gordon

No strong opinion on Watkins vs. Lee yet. Lee is more the type of athlete that I prefer, but Watkins might be the more explosive and dynamic player in the NFL. If I had to make the 1.01 pick today I could see myself taking any of my top 3 guys. No firm preference there yet.

Second tier would be:

RB Jeremy Hill

RB Bishop Sankey

WR Odell Beckham

WR Donte Moncrief

WR Mike Evans

QB Teddy Bridgewater

QB Marcus Mariota

I automatically bump QBs down a tier because they're not very valuable outside of 2QB, superflex, or other formats where they score a lot. Not necessarily a huge Sankey fan, but I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt right now. I think the combine is really important for players like him who put up great stats, but don't obviously have freak athletic qualities. With good numbers he will start to look more like Doug Martin. With bad numbers he will look more like Montee Ball.

Third tier would look something like:

RB Devonta Freeman

RB Michael Dyer

RB Carlos Hyde

RB KaDeem Carey

RB Branden Oliver

WR Davante Adams

WR Brandin Cooks

WR Jordan Matthews

WR Antwan Goodley

WR Jarvis Landry

WR Paul Richardson

WR Rashad Greene

TE Jace Amaro

TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins

QB Johnny Manziel

I could list a lot more names as candidates for the third tier and there are some unlisted players who have a chance to be high picks, but these are a lot of the key names. The combine looms as a huge data point and I'm sure there will be some movement based on how these players test and how they look in positional drills.

Also there isn't necessarily a lot of differentiation between the second and third tier players and I'm not that informed on this QB class. I know people are down on Manziel for various reasons, but to me he's an interesting player who could end up being something like a better Jeff Garcia if he can rein in his rock star persona and his reckless playing style.

You have a HUGE gap between Eric Ebron and Jace Amaro, what is it about Jace that he is so low on your list?

Tex

I should probably have him in the second tier. I don't think he's as athletic as Ebron though. Not as agile or good at route running.

With the way teams are using TEs in the NFL right now, a pure receiving specialist like him could have a lot of value. He's tall and quick off the line. I just don't get the same wow factor with him as I do with Ebron.

Amaro is probably your Jordan Reed this year.

 

[EBF]

Let me know when you want to do some real analysis on these players. Just not stereotype them.

I've seen plenty of guys like Lee, Cooks, and Richardson over their careers. I don't agree with your assessments. Doesn't mean I don't know what I'm talking about. Amazing as it might seem, you aren't the only one who watches football games or has opinions on players.

I actually had the first post on these forums about Paul Richardson back in August of 2011:

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=580252&page=3#entry13408533

Looking ahead, I think Keenan Allen (Cal), Lache Seastrunk (Oregon), and Paul Richardson (Colorado) are some of the lesser known 2013-2014 prospects who have a chance to become standouts. Allen was the best athlete on Cal's offense last season as a true freshman. If you are in a DEEP dev draft and you want to take some flyers, I would consider these guys.

I actually just watched Oregon State play Stanford a couple weeks ago. Cooks wasn't even the best WR on the field. His own coach described Ty Montgomery as "Brandin Cooks on steroids." I actually think Cooks is a pretty good player, but I think any coach in the conference would rather have Marqise Lee. That's not some huge slight against Cooks. Lee is just the better overall athlete and WR. I think he's the best WR to come through the conference in the last 5+ years.

Being that short is a legitimate handicap for Cooks and even though guys like Steve Smith and (to a lesser extent) Antonio Brown have been great, they're the exceptions and not necessarily the rule. Other players like Mike Thomas (Arizona) have struggled to make the jump. It would probably be unfair to compare Cooks to Mike Thomas or Jacoby Ford, but if I were drafting tomorrow I don't think he'd a be a top 45 pick for me, whereas I'd take Lee in the 15-30 range.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

If DeSean Jackson can find a role in the NFL, so can Paul Richardson imo. While Richardson likely doesn't have that extra gear that DeSean has, Richardson actually has some semblance of WR skills. If Richardson can run in the low 4.4s at the combine, he's just about a lock for the 2nd round imo.