Cloppbeast - I don't think your crazy for disagreeing. I was wondering why all of this worship for Watkins on this board exists. I like him as the #1 WR too, but the drop off is not that significant to Lee.... Especially when you consider all of the other WR's as well..... This "gotta have Watkins think" should be played to everyone's advantage..... The drop off to Lee (and others) if any is almost negligible.
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
[Dynasty] 2014 Draft Prospects (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter Xue
- Start date
His teammates and coaches think highly of him - along wih many draft experts!!
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=oCrxP0v6PLo
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=oCrxP0v6PLo
JFS171
Footballguy
I think it's the lack of burst that bothers me. Mostly just seems to be one speed… idk, that's the only thing I can seem to articulate, but his tape just doesn't pop for me...
I think that is a fair assessment? It may be because he does things so easy?? Or maybe he does not have that top end speed??? I would think the latter not be true as he gained all of these yards in the PAC 10....
What did LeShon McCoy run in the 40??? Alfred Morris??? And Alfred cannot catch like Carey....
Hey anyone could bust... What I like about Carey is he runs tough for his size and he is pretty agile... He also put up big numbers vs tough competition....
cloppbeast
Footballguy
I agree about Ka'Deem Carey lacking accelleration; but, I must admit he has some good moves. He makes people miss in the open field.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Lee had a great 2012 when Watkins had an off year, and Watkins had a great 2013 when Lee had an off year.Watkins is not only faster but bigger, so scouts may think that translates to the NFL better. Bad timing for Lee to have his injury plagued year be this one, which will be fresh in the scouts minds.
Last edited by a moderator:
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Lee is a better route runner, and has better accelleration. Combined with his agility, one can see why Lee gets open better.
Watkins has greater speed, you must give him that. He will serve a better deep threat.
As far as 'wow' factor goes, I'm not really sure what you mean, nor am I sure it matters.
Last edited by a moderator:
EBF
Footballguy
I'd probably say Watkins. Seems to be a little more special. Mainly because of his superior speed.
Lee is more like the type of player that I usually gravitate towards though. Fluid mover with very good quickness.
I think both have a good chance to find productive niches in the NFL.
Last edited by a moderator:
cloppbeast
Footballguy
I'm not sure Watkins size advantage really translates into anything meaningful on the field. Watkins will have average size in the NFL, so it won't be much of an assett anyway.
Xue
Footballguy
Neither guy is a special route runner.
Watkins has better body control and catches away from his body better.
Why do all these Jabroni's on this board have such an absolute h*ard on for Watkins as the #1 pick in dynasty rookie drafts? All of the RB talent and WR depth would lead me to believe that taking a RB high and a WR in the 2nd rd would be the way to go.....
Last edited by a moderator:
cloppbeast
Footballguy
I don't. I have one for all of the RB talent in this draft.....I dont know. Why do you have a hard on for Ka'Deem Carey?
I actually like Mike Evans more than Watkins by a decent margin, and I think Lee actually has a chance at being as good or better than Wakins long term.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
It is relative, he is bigger than Lee, so Lee is smaller than a player you call NFL average.I don't think the scouts categorize size by really big, really small and everybody in between, there might be more subtle gradations, and Watkins could grade higher on the basis of being both faster and bigger.
They are close enough that if you reversed their measurables, and Lee was bigger and faster, I might like him better?
Also, scouting is an act of imagination and projection. We can assume they may be asking themselves if Watkins can run a more diverse route tree in the pros than bubble screens and go routes. If the answer to that question is yes, than they may think they can harness that speed to get open in more diverse ways and in more areas of the field than what we saw with the more limited repertoire of routes in college.
Does he look unusually stiff or robotic to you? Anything to suggest the intricacies of learning slants, square ins or square outs and a more complete route tree will prove insurmountable for him at the next level? Not being facetious, serious question. I realize some players never get it, but he seems like he has the requisite work ethic, passion for the game and desire to get better that leads me to like his chances.
* Remember Keith Jackson, the GB TE, not the Whoa, Nellie dude? He only caught a few passes in college (Oklahoma?), due to scheme. But it was a good job of scouting to look past scheme and use and envision how he could be used differently in THEIR scheme.
For me personally, the fact that he had arguably one of the best seasons for a true freshman in NCAA history (only AP first team All American with historically good college/pro RBs Walker, Faulk and Peterson) also carries a lot of weight. That was an extremely impressive and rare accomplishment.
Last edited by a moderator:
JohnnyU
Footballguy
You're a year too early. 2015 will be the year of the RB for dynasty leagues, not 2014.I don't. I have one for all of the RB talent in this draft.....I dont know. Why do you have a hard on for Ka'Deem Carey?
I respectfully disagree!You're a year too early. 2015 will be the year of the RB for dynasty leagues, not 2014.I don't. I have one for all of the RB talent in this draft.....I dont know. Why do you have a hard on for Ka'Deem Carey?
Last edited by a moderator:
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Carey reminds me a lot of Steve Slaton. Providing Carey doesn't come with neck/nerve damage that's a good thing.
Bamac
Footballguy
In that case, seems like the play is to grab Watkins at 1.01 and draft one of the RBs at 2.01.I don't. I have one for all of the RB talent in this draft.....I dont know. Why do you have a hard on for Ka'Deem Carey?
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Fair enough, size matters.
But I ask how does height and weight help a WR?I would argue, mainly size helps a receiver get open. Weight mixed with technique, strenth, and agility makes it easier to beat press coverage. Bigger wide-outs push around smaller corners to create seperation. Taller receivers may catch passes over shorter cornerbacks even without gainin seperation.
With respect to Lee v. Watkins, I don't see the latter's 10lb advantage making up for the former's quickness as a means for getting open. Watkins inch in height advantage may not matter either. Without knowing their arm lengths or verticals, it's unknown who has the larger catch radius.
Whether or not a player succeeds in transition depends on ability as much as desire. While I may not question Watkins' attitude, I have reservations as to whether he can get open consistently executing a full route tree in the NFL. I don't see good acceleration or agility - probably average for a NFL WR his size. He could certainly improve his route running; he probably will. In college Watkins' speed afforded him some cushion, of which he took advantage. He won't have as much respect in the NFL. I'm curious to know what kind of 40 he runs. I'd set the over/under at about 4.4, which is far from special in the NFL. I don't see DeSean Jackson or Mike Wallace kind of speed from Watkins.
Referring to your example. I would argue Watkins is on the opposite end of the spectrum, but not to the extreme. Some players aren't used properly in college, so they don't get to show their talents; other players are used so perfectly, their production will exceed their talent level. (Tebow anybody?) Watkins put up some impressive stats at Clemson in ways he won't be used in the NFL. Since his production is a large part of the reason he ranks as one of the best prospects, I'm a little skeptical.
Last edited by a moderator:
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Seastrunk looks pretty damn good in the open field. Speed, agility, acceleration - almost enough to give you a hard on. The offense Baylor was tailored to take advantage of his talent. When Seastrunk run inside, it was out of the spread. Seastrunk was rarely asked to run power between the tackles - to good effect. He can make you miss, but doesn't get yards after contact.
On the other hand, Auburn's Tre Mason finds ways to get yards after contact, despite a similar stature to Seastrunk. Auburn used its runningback much differently. Mason ran behind power blocking schemes almost entirely. He didn't get the ball in space very often that I noticed (correct me if I'm wrong), but I suspect he has the ability with his acceleration and agility.
Seastrunk probably has more physical talent; but I still prefer Tre Mason. The latter has what it takes to serve as a foundation back. Of course, it all depends on who selects them in the draft.
On the other hand, Auburn's Tre Mason finds ways to get yards after contact, despite a similar stature to Seastrunk. Auburn used its runningback much differently. Mason ran behind power blocking schemes almost entirely. He didn't get the ball in space very often that I noticed (correct me if I'm wrong), but I suspect he has the ability with his acceleration and agility.
Seastrunk probably has more physical talent; but I still prefer Tre Mason. The latter has what it takes to serve as a foundation back. Of course, it all depends on who selects them in the draft.
I feel the same way.
Tre Mason > Lache Seastrunk
Mason is a much more powerful runner. He looks like an NFL running back.
coolnerd
Footballguy
I think this is fair in both cases. My biggest reason to downgrade Seastrunk is that we literally have no idea what he can contribute as a pass catcher. Baylor's offense does not seem to care about the RB catching the ball, but he never did it. In the era the NFL passing all over the place and PPR leagues, his upside is limited until there is real evidence that he can catch a ball in a game situation.
Bronx Bomber
Footballguy
Isn't Lee a long jump stud? I'm sure that will translate to vert and overcompensate lack of height.
coolnerd
Footballguy
I could see that, but not catching passes at least Lynch level 35 or so, dooms his FF scoring than anything else.
JFS171
Footballguy
The comment I would make to all three of you is to not confuse "didn't" with "can't."
Simply because Seastrunk wasn't asked to do things in college doesn't mean he isn't able to do them, including running inside and especially catching the ball.
JFS171
Footballguy
Also, regarding Seastrunk… we shouldn't forget this, which I have a feeling he reminds us all about come the combine...
As others have previously expressed, I hope the skepticism continues to surround Seastrunk… I'm sitting on the 1.6 and would absolutely love a shot at him.
Last edited by a moderator:
Time Kibitzer
Footballguy
I don't think we need to see combine results to know Sammy Watkins has a better catch radius than Marqise Lee, imo it's pretty obvious just watching their highlights. Sammy Watkins high points the ball on every single pass he receives, allowing him to much more readily catch inaccurate passes and win jump balls, whereas Lee tries to body catch whenever possible. Even if Lee has an insane vertical and a go-go gadget-like arm length, it's not gonna make up for Watkins innate receiving skills in regard to catch radius imo.Fair enough, size matters.
I would argue, mainly size helps a receiver get open. Weight mixed with technique, strenth, and agility makes it easier to beat press coverage. Bigger wide-outs push around smaller corners to create seperation. Taller receivers may catch passes over shorter cornerbacks even without gainin seperation.
With respect to Lee v. Watkins, I don't see the latter's 10lb advantage making up for the former's quickness as a means for getting open. Watkins inch in height advantage may not matter either. Without knowing their arm lengths or verticals, it's unknown who has the larger catch radius.
Whether or not a player succeeds in transition depends on ability as much as desire. While I may not question Watkins' attitude, I have reservations as to whether he can get open consistently executing a full route tree in the NFL. I don't see good acceleration or agility - probably average for a NFL WR his size. He could certainly improve his route running; he probably will. In college Watkins' speed afforded him some cushion, of which he took advantage. He won't have as much respect in the NFL. I'm curious to know what kind of 40 he runs. I'd set the over/under at about 4.4, which is far from special in the NFL. I don't see DeSean Jackson or Mike Wallace kind of speed from Watkins.
Referring to your example. I would argue Watkins is on the opposite end of the spectrum, but not to the extreme. Some players aren't used properly in college, so they don't get to show their talents; other players are used so perfectly, their production will exceed their talent level. (Tebow anybody?) Watkins put up some impressive stats at Clemson in ways he won't be used in the NFL. Since his production is a large part of the reason he ranks as one of the best prospects, I'm a little skeptical.
Secondly, personally I don't know how you can watch Watkins and not see excellent acceleration, let alone not see good acceleration. Watch the sequence from 3:12-3:29 in this video, and check out the burst he shows on his rush at 6:11 of that video. Imo Watkins has the best acceleration of any of the top WR prospects in this draft. And while he may not have Mike Wallace/DeSean type speed (though he might imo), if he's running in the 4.40 range at his size I'd say that'd be pretty special; that'd be fast enough to beat 90-95% of NFL CB's in a sprint anyway. Plus Watkins has way better WR skills and strength than either Wallace or DeSean; I'd take Watkins over DeSean or Wallace in a dynasty league in a heartbeat.
And while Watkins may not have great agility, there are worse things than being a North-South YAC runner with his kind of speed.
Last edited by a moderator:
I'm not saying that Seastrunk can't effectively run north/south between the tackles. I am saying that he is NOT as good at it as Mason is...
JohnnyU
Footballguy
What this all boils down to are a bunch of FF geeks pretending they know scouting by looking at a bunch of youtube videos and offering up opinions on players they like and dislike, for whatever "real" reasons / agenda they have. I'm not going to sit here and pretend I know something I don't. Otherwise I would be making lots of money working for some NFL team. Instead, I think the best way to increase your chances of hitting on players is to obtain as much information as possible from those who get paid to know this stuff a lot better than I do, rather than listen to a bunch of GM wannabees.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Good post,Fair enough, size matters.
I would argue, mainly size helps a receiver get open. Weight mixed with technique, strenth, and agility makes it easier to beat press coverage. Bigger wide-outs push around smaller corners to create seperation. Taller receivers may catch passes over shorter cornerbacks even without gainin seperation.
With respect to Lee v. Watkins, I don't see the latter's 10lb advantage making up for the former's quickness as a means for getting open. Watkins inch in height advantage may not matter either. Without knowing their arm lengths or verticals, it's unknown who has the larger catch radius.
Whether or not a player succeeds in transition depends on ability as much as desire. While I may not question Watkins' attitude, I have reservations as to whether he can get open consistently executing a full route tree in the NFL. I don't see good acceleration or agility - probably average for a NFL WR his size. He could certainly improve his route running; he probably will. In college Watkins' speed afforded him some cushion, of which he took advantage. He won't have as much respect in the NFL. I'm curious to know what kind of 40 he runs. I'd set the over/under at about 4.4, which is far from special in the NFL. I don't see DeSean Jackson or Mike Wallace kind of speed from Watkins.
Referring to your example. I would argue Watkins is on the opposite end of the spectrum, but not to the extreme. Some players aren't used properly in college, so they don't get to show their talents; other players are used so perfectly, their production will exceed their talent level. (Tebow anybody?) Watkins put up some impressive stats at Clemson in ways he won't be used in the NFL. Since his production is a large part of the reason he ranks as one of the best prospects, I'm a little skeptical.
thanks for the feedback. I have the 1.5 pick in an upcoming dynasty draft, and might be choosing between Evans and Lee (no hope Watkins will be there, unless he tests for Angel Dust at the Combine), so I appreciate the opportunity to sharpen and clarify my thinking on how to parse their constellation of physical traits, athletic attributes and skill sets.
I think we are seeing different things as it related to the quickness difference between the two. Its there, but from my perspective, it is more of a subtle difference. Agree, we will know more when we get VJ data.
The ability to run a full route tree also has to do with other things than acceleration and agility (which no doubt, all things being equal, are assets), and at a root level, also with things like precision, attention to detail, diligence, hard work, knowing exactly how many steps to take, where to be at the right time, etc. This is why close to zero rookies are master technicians, and even many vets never are. I think we are talking about different things when I used the Keith Jackson example, and you drew a different conclusion. Scouts will have to use their imagination when it comes to projecting whether he will be able to run a full route tree or not. If South Carolina ran a pro style offense, we would already have the answer, and it wouldn't be in doubt, as it is with you.
Sammy Watkins (few sets of highlights below). Some are seeing him as fast but not necessarily quick, I guess I'm seeing it different. He ran like a 10.4 or 10.5 100 m. IMO, that is hard to do without being quick and having some serious get off and acceleration, too. We don't usually refer to players with 10.4 track backgrounds as having "build up" speed and getting faster as they get downfield. He isn't Barry Sanders in the open field, but not many WRs are. The way he is described, it is as if he has a rocket strapped to him, is on ice skates and you just point him towards the end zone. He isn't QUITE that linear. One thing that hasn't been discussed is hands. Watkins appears to have outstanding hands. I haven't followed Lee as closely, but reportedly he had a lot of drops this season, so that could be worth watching.
Jerry Rice was the greatest for a lot of reasons (short area burst and quickness had a lot to do with hit, he was very strong for his size, supreme concentration, cartoonishly good hands, iron will and competitive determination, Walter Payton-like conditioning, stamina and endurance, having one of the greatest 1-2 punches in history at QB, along with Waterfield/Van Brocklin, in Montana/Young didn't hurt. etc.). But one of the biggest, and possibly most neglected, was his tendency to get north/south ASAP. He got a lot of extra yards by being decisive in this way. On a lot of the bubble screens, this is what Watkins seems to be doing. It may look like he doesn't have a lot of wiggle, I take it more as he is A) Getting what he can, and B) Sometimes he is so fast he doesn't need to string together a half dozen cuts and moves because his open field speed is destroying the angles of defenders, so why horse around and do a combo mambo/breakdance behind the LOS.
If Bruce Feldman (see below - puts out the annual Freak List) thinks Evans is going to run a 4.4, than just looking at them comparitively, Watkins is significantly faster, and that would make me think he cracks into the sub-4.4 threshold, which will make him a pretty hot property come May, and would be doubtful to get past CLE or OAK, so STL may not want to drop past 1.4 if they want him (though maybe they want Robinson or Matthews, and could possibly drop to 1.6 or even 1.8?).
2:28 - Nice back-to-back-to-back plays. First shows ability to go up and get a contested ball for a score that was maybe an intended back shoulder throw that inadvertantly went straight ahead. Second (2:33) shows some of the leg strength EBF referred to as he takes a quick hitter and powers though 3-4-5 defenders, with an assist from a USC OL or two
. Third (2:41) does highlight probably the best feet, quickness and elusiveness of all the Watkins/Lee highlights I looked at above. But in a lot of plays, like the Watkins highlights, he is so dominant at this level he is just running away from defenders so not an ideal showcase for the full range and scope of his skill set.* Mailbag: Sorting out the (2014) WR class In the NFL draft by Bruce "Freak List" Feldman. To possibly add to the confusion, he doesn't really address Watkins, accepting the premise of the question that Watkins is off the board. But he does say he likes Evans best in the class, which was interesting. It sounds like he has some access to both Evans and Manziel in So Cal. He thinks he is going to run a 4.4, the first person I heard say that (personally I'm sceptical, my guess would be closer to a 4.55). He also reminded me that Evans was primarily a basketball player until his senior year in high school, so he could have substantial upside once he learns the ropes of the position (currently training with James Lofton on route running). He is only 20, which is appealing in dynasty leagues. Also interestingly, he likes "bend it like" Beckham more than Lee (I don't agree, just passing it along) and points out he is also a sensational athlete, and likes Matthews (and Benjamin) more than Robinson. He notes that Benjamin may be even more of a monster than Evans size-wise, but thinks he is even more raw, and is in his estimation more of a project and boom/bust-type.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/writer/bruce-feldman/24419062/mailbag-sorting-out-the-wr-class-in-the-nfl-draft
** I had not yet read Time Kibitzer and Xue's more recent comments as I was writing this, but I agree with what they said. In mentioning Wallace and Jackson, Wallace probably has the best deep speed (functional, anyways, not counting guys like DHB that can't catch the ball) in the league in the past half decade. Needless to say, Watkins could not be quite THAT fast, and still be REALLY, REALLY fast (he is). And as pointed out, they are different size, so not really a fair comparison, especially with Jackson. Wallace is 6'0" 195 lbs, so he should be faster, but he isn't as strong, tough or physical. Jackson is 5'11" 178 lbs., so with Watkins being two inches taller and nearly 30 lbs heavier (that would be like comparing Jackson to a player 150 lbs.!), they really don't belong in the same conversation.
Last edited by a moderator:
lod01
Footballguy
Get a set - have a take.
I personally am interested in what people on this board think from watching these prospects play college ball...
Kleck
Footballguy
Carey kind of reminds me of Moreno when he was a prospect. Moreno played lighter at Georgia and bulked up for the combine. I think Carey has the body to bulk up some too and play heavier without losing too much top end speed (should still be faster than Moreno though). They both play tougher than their size would indicate. Decent footwork with nice moves and can make people miss in the open field. Both sort of a lack in acceleration/burst, but nothing that concerns me too much. Overall, good in many aspects, but nothing real great or elite. I think Carey can be a good pro, but may need the right system like Moreno has now to be a great fantasy RB.
Last edited by a moderator:
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Good posting to you.
Right now, we're obviously seeing things a little differently when it comes to Sammy's acceleration. I've honestly only watched film of Watkins and Lee so far, and I can really tell a difference between the two getting off the ball.
You make good points about Watkins' catching skills. He catches with extended arms, and rarely drops a pass. I also definitely see his running after the ability as an asset. I would never complain about his north/south style.
Perhaps I'm guilty of placing too much importance on Watkins (perceived) lack of acceleration and agility. But in my opinion, the most important thing a WR needs is the ability to get open, which is in large part is a function of a receivers short area burst and agility.
I can't wait for the scouting combine to see how Watkins does in the 20 yard shuttle. We will have a much clearer picture then.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
It seems I'm the minority here over Watkins acceleration. At least I have time to change my mind.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
As far as catching the ball, I have no qualms with Seastrunk. But I'm not seeing him translate to effective between the tackles runner in the NFL. He is flat out a space runner.
No doubt, he could learn and improve. Reggie Bush even figured it out after a while.
But, if I'm choosing between Tre Mason, who has already demonstrated very good inside running, and Seastrunk, who could figure out one day maybe, I will hands down take the former.
Xue
Footballguy
DeAndre Hopkins ran a 4.50 20-yard shuttle last year and he cuts and changes direction pretty well in his routes.
20-yard shuttle is meaningless for outside WRs, and even moreso for those that measure great in other drills. 20-yard shuttle is more important for smaller WRs especially those in the slot.
Watkins isn't a slot receiver so he's not going to be the most agile or shifty guy and he doesn't need to be. But his agility and change of direction isn't as bad as someone like Stephen Hill or Darrius Heyward-Bey.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Xue
Footballguy
Simply watching them run routes. Certain receivers can run certain routes much better than others. Unless a guy is asked to run a lot of square routes or comebacks, I don't worry much about having great or crazy change of direction. Someone like Odell Beckham is the best at sharp-breaking routes and comebacks, but that doesn't mean he'll put up a crazy shuttle or 3-cone time.
Here is a route by Watkins with a double move: http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-GWFSi3kL1-k/Uq0ki07CraI/AAAAAAAAAzk/REauF0QlYnk/s1600/Sammy5.gif
A bit choppy, but his speed and athleticism out of his breaks will more than make up for any lack of ability to change direction that you think he has.
Last edited by a moderator:
coolnerd
Footballguy
Not knowing is either way is reason enough to downgrade him. You cannot assume that he will do it either. And if you are PPR leagues (or even regular where those receiving yards still count),. I find it hard act like a guy who had zero catches and zeroes yards in the passing game is somehow light years ahead of everybody else. I don't need to be scout (johnny U) to be able to think that through.
MAC_32
Footballguy
it isn't an awful strategy for the lazy
