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[Dynasty] 2023 NFL Draft Class (2 Viewers)

NFL Rookie Watch @NFLRookieWatch Myles Murphy showed OUT at his Pro Day today. The Clemson Edge has been drawing several comparisons to last year’s first overall pick, Travon Walker. Today, Murphy weighed in at 6’5”, 271 pounds, ran a 4.51 40-Yard Dash, 7.20 3-Cone, and 4.35 Shuttle. Last year, Travon Walker weighed in at 6’5”, 272 pounds, ran a 4.51 40-Yard Dash, 6.89 3-Cone, and 4.32 Shuttle. The hype is REAL for the Clemson Edge
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I'm kind of surprised by 'some' of the teams most likely to draft a player who did not have enough athletic testing to generate a RAS score.
---------------
Goodberry
@JoeGoodberry
Which team are more open to drafting a prospect that didn't do athletic testing?
Here's how many of those picks each team has made since 2015.
*I removed QB and Special Teams picks.
*Prospects that didn't do enough tests to get an RAS score are what I counted.
>>> LINK to chart 📖
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John Baines@johnthebaines
How different would this ranking be if you normalized this against total picks each team made?
Goodberry@JoeGoodberry
And then added the rounds also. Because I bet more teams are open to the idea later.

- I don't think there has to be a correlation. Just that maybe the Bills WON'T take a guy that doesn't test while other teams are more open to it.
 
With 3 weeks to go, thought it would be fun conversation to use grinding the mocks to spur some analysis of the skill positions players that we'll be looking at in the first couple of rounds of rookie drafts. Obviously there's going to be a few more RBs and WRs in the mix for dynasty/fantasy. I was under the impression that these had a decent track record. This seems to only go to 50 which is a little different from what I thought it would be. https://grindingthemocks.shinyapps.io/Dashboard/

EDP/ rank /Name
QBs
1.7 /1 Stroud
1.8/ 2 Young
4.8/ 4 Richardson
11.4/ 9 Levis
50.2/ 50 Hooker

WRs
15.7/ 14 JSN
19.9/ 19 Quentin Johnson
24.4/24 Jordan Addison
24.4/ 26 Zay Flowers
37.6/ 37 Jalin Hyatt
44.7/46 Josh Downs

TEs
24.1/ 22 Michael Mayer
26.1/ 27 Dalton Kincaid
34.2/ 31 Darnell Washington
47.3/ 48 Luke Musgrave

RBs
16.7/ 15 Bijan Robinson
42.1/ 42 Jahmyr Gibbs

My commentary:
Stroud/Young still a tossup in terms of talent evaluations but leaning Stroud to CAR which matches the buzz out there.
Richardson to Colts seems like it has a lot of smoke. Hope for you all out there in Indy that Waldman is right.
I'm not a Levis believer so we'll see who takes the plunge. I'm betting he falls further than this.
Hooker's been getting a bit of buzz lately. Wouldn't be surprised to see him creep up the board.

4 mid to late 1st grade WRs feels about right with this class. I'd guess JSN pulls a little further ahead in the coming weeks.
Addison/Flowers is a tier. Wilson/London/ Olave and Jamo all went before 14 that so the NFL seemingly agrees that this class isn't quite on par with last year's class. Brugler has 'em ranked pretty different (Addison #19, JSN #21, Hyatt #27, QJ #29, Flowers #39, Downs #42, Scott #48) from this so curious to see how the NFL sees it.

TEs feels like there's going to be a lot of good options. Pick your flavor. All around? Massive receiving upside? Huge? Athletic? We got 'em always hearing patience is key to picking TEs but who's got time for that? I have a buncha guys that you'd have to best ball them to get a decent score in a given week.

RBs, Bijan post in the other thread. Lotta Buzz. Gibbs early to mid 2nd. Totally agree with @rockaction about Hall/Bijan draft capital delta seeming in retrospect like a bit of a whiff by the NFL. Or an overstatement of Bijan's talent. Like what would Bijan have to do to look better than how Breece looked for those few weeks before the ACL? Curious to see how Charb and the gang fall on day 2.
 
greenmountaingoat said:
Curious to see how Charb and the gang fall on day 2.
Click to expand...

The Hall/Robinson thing will let us know how the NFL values the surplus value of other positions over RB as a whole. It won't tell us if Robinson is better than Hall or vice-versa (should Bijan unthinkably slip), but what it will tell me is whether after seeing Breece, did the NFL market correct? That's what I think I'll think about it, anyway.

Or are there other things at play? We're going to see who is playing chess while the other guys play checkers. LOLOL. I'm kidding, but I'm going off a podcast I heard by PFF about the surplus value of picking other positions in the first round. It looks worse for RBs than even the current state of RBs would suggest. The conclusion was that first-round RB selections cost way more than you think in terms of what you lose at other positions by the salary index (by salary index I mean the slotted salary at the draft position). So if the GMs are listening and indebted to thought like that, where will Bijan go? I find it fascinating not just because we're fantasy guys and a bell cow 3-down RB is almost a unicorn, but because of what it tells us about what the NFL is thinking about a position that used to be the glamour position on the field besides QB. Or, to clarify, at least what one individual team thinks of the surplus value concept.

But I fear that's been talked about to death. The quoted is really the rub and the crux of this class vis a vis fantasy. Where are the Day 2 guys going and how many are there? That'll determine whether this class is a fantasy success or not. Well, how many stick with the NFL will be the crux of it, but for fantasy players that aren't just going hope, prayer, and luck, hopefully we'll see draft capital invested in some guys.

*edited for clarity and to flesh out thoughts at 6:45 PDT.
 
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Different take of value of top prospects.
Definitely has 'some' rated much higher/lower than most others.
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Former NFL Scout’s Shocking First Round Value Board 2.0

Top 5 picks​

No. 1 Jalen Carter DT Georgia
A Super Bowl defensive centerpiece who physically takes over a handful of plays every game. Off-season noise, blah, blah, blah. Carter is the best player on game film in this draft class.

No. 2 Bryce Young QB Alabama
A modern-day Fran Tarkenton (Hall of Fame quarterback). With his ability to create and extend plays, coupled with his on-point downfield ball placement, this Alabama field general has the greatest potential to turn around a struggling NFL franchise I’ve seen in 40 years.

No. 3 C.J. Stroud QB Ohio State
A modern-day Warren Moon (Hall of Fame quarterback). Armed with incredible quick pre and post-snap recognition and pinpoint downfield ball placement, Stroud is a rookie with the feel of a 10-year vet.

No. 4 Nolan Smith EDGE Georgia
Better upside than Micah Parsons and similar speed (Parsons’ 4.36 vs. Smith’s 4.39 40-times). Plus, Smith doesn’t come equipped with Parsons’ mouth and he doesn’t take half the plays off. In a nutshell, phenomenal speed, pocket adjustment ability, and close.

No. 5 Calijah Kancey DT Pitt
If Mike Tyson was a football player he would be Calijah Kancey. A vicious and tenacious pocket wrecker who hits people like he wants to knock their teeth out.

Picks 6-10​

No. 6. Emmanuel Forbes CB Mississippi State
The closest thing to Sauce Gardner in this draft class. A ball-hawk who loves to bait quarterbacks, if you don’t believe me, ask Will Levis.

No. 7 A.T. Perry WR Wake Forest
--------------------------------------------------
Go to the link for the full read.
 
Top 2023 NFL Draft Targets for Teams Without 1st-Round Picks
... five organizations—the Cleveland Browns, Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Rams, Miami Dolphins and San Francisco 49ers—aren't scheduled to select until Day 2.
...If you're a fan of the aforementioned squads, keep these names in mind as excellent fits who could immediately help your favorite team.
----------------------------------------
Go to the link for the full read.
-----------------------------------------
The Draft Network
@TheDraftNetwork
The Broncos don't have a pick until the 3rd round of the 2023 #NFLDraft, but we haven't forgotten about them.
Here are 3 players Denver should target when they finally get to make a selection.
Broncos Should Target These 3 Players With Their 1st Draft Pick
 
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Faust said:
Fragoza’s 2-round 2023 NFL Mock Draft: Trenton Simpson, Antonio Johnson highlight value of versatility
Click to expand...
What Are Trenton Simpson’s 4 Best NFL Team Fits?
...Simpson has played snaps at deep safety, across the defensive front, and as a blitzer for extra pressure from the linebacker spot. In addition to the pressure he can bring on passing downs, Simpson is also a valuable contributor dropping into coverage in zone...
...here are the four best team fits for Trenton Simpson.

Pittsburgh Steelers...​

----------------------
Go to the link for the full read.
 
If you're looking to draft an offensive tackle, Joe Goodberry shows which rounds you'll have the best chance to find them.
Goodberry
@JoeGoodberry

Of the 56 Offensive Tackles that played enough snaps to be considered a full time starter last year, 71% were drafted in the first three rounds. 54% were drafted in the first two rounds.
20 of the top 28 in PFF's True Pass Sets Grade were drafted in the first three rounds (71%)
If you're just looking for average (OTs ranked between 20-40), well 67% of those guys were drafted in the first three rounds also.
You're going to watch (I imagine he meant to say WANT) to spend a premium pick at this position.
>>> LINK to chart 📖
I've seen the same take on this safety class from various draft sources.
------------------------
Daniel Jeremiah
@MoveTheSticks
This is a bad year to need a safety in the NFL Draft. Paper thin.
 
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Bracie Smathers said:

LSU EDGE B.J. Ojulari... long, athletic, and bendy as they come off the edge. The younger brother of Azeez, Ojulari...​

Click to expand...

Kent Lee Platte@MathBomb​

B.J. Ojulari is a DE prospect in the 2023 draft class.
He scored a 4.86 RAS out of a possible 10.00.
This ranked 830 out of 1613 DE from 1987 to 2023.
Not sure his score ends up this low if he had run.
 
 
Faust said:
2023 NFL mock draft: QBs go 1-2-3, trades abound in new two-round projections
Click to expand...
This mock has QBs with the first-4 picks, going 1-2-3-4.

1. Carolina Panthers (from CHI): QB Anthony Richardson, Florida​

2. Houston Texans: QB Bryce Young, Alabama​

3. Tennessee Titans (from ARI): QB C.J. Stroud, Ohio State​

4. Indianapolis Colts: QB Will Levis, Kentucky​

 
FMIA: The NFL Draft is 17 Days Away, and Memories of a Draft Past Show How Much Has Changed

Excerpts:

This is important: Most draft boards are not finalized. Keep in mind that most teams have their rankings done in pencil now, with the ability to change the order by position and overall. That’s an important thing to realize as we go down the home stretch. For instance, Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter is due to visit two teams in the top seven, Seattle (five) and Las Vegas (seven), in the coming days. How can Vegas GM Dave Ziegler and Seattle GM John Schneider finish their evaluation of Carter before sitting down with him at length? They can’t. So if you hear, “Carter’s out in Seattle,” for instance, it’s just not feasible.
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The receivers are all bunched up. One team thinks it’s nuts for Ohio State’s Jaxon Smith-Njigbato be ranked ahead of USC’s Jordan Addison. Another team has BC’s Zay Flowers the top-ranked wideout on the board. In short, we’re going to see some surprises at receiver on draft night. Smith-Njigba caught just five passes last year for Ohio State as he battled and eventually succumbed to a hamstring injury. Addison caught 100 balls from Kenny Pickett at Pitt in 2021, then 59 more in a new offense for USC in 2022. With a lesser supporting cast at Boston College, Flowers caught 200 balls in four seasons and has been hugely impressive in interviews with teams. To me, Baltimore getting Addison or Flowers at 21 would be a big get in the Ravens’ only scheduled pick in the first two rounds.
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The Bryce Young-to-Carolina talk increases. Though ESPN’s Chris Mortensen stressed the final call has not been made, the plugged-in Mort did say he thinks the Panthers “will stick with him when it’s time to turn in the card” on draft night. This jibes with what I wrote last week — that Young has a lot of fans in high places in the organization. I agree with Mortensen that it’s not a done deal, but the momentum toward Young is real. What’s interesting if the 5-10 Young goes before the 6-3 (and accomplished) C.J. Stroud is how it signifies how much the game has changed over the past few years. Young likes people comparing him to a point guard, a distributor of the ball to the open man, because it illustrates a lot about modern quarterbacking. In today’s game, a short quarterback can work better than a generation ago because it’s more of a horizontal, short-passing game overall.
Click to expand...

One coach of a team with a pick in the top half of the first round had an interesting observation about Young/Stroud. This coach told me he had Stroud a strong number one on his board, with Young two. The overriding point was about size. If Young plays at 5-10 and, say, 198, he’ll be one of the smallest quarterbacks ever, obviously, in the NFL. Not just short, but slim. This coach asked me about the defensive fronts Young will face. “Alabama’s line was superior,” this coach said, “and Young consistently had enough time to throw. Taking away nothing from him, because he made the throws and made the plays to be great. But the offensive line for him will be crucial. Think of the defensive coordinators he’ll face, and how much they’ll emphasize putting good hits on him. I don’t see how that’s not a big factor when you put a grade on him.” Think of 6-8 Calais Campbell and 6-3 David Onyemata bull-rushing Young on the Atlanta defensive front—Campbell has 10 inches and 110 pounds on Young. People will say Young faced great defensive linemen in the SEC, and he did. But he’s not likely to have an NFL offensive line as foreboding as the one he had at Alabama.
Click to expand...

Hearing a lot about Emmanuel Forbes, the Mississippi State cornerback. Interesting story. Forbes was a high school pitcher who threw in the mid-nineties until suffering an elbow injury. Then he switched full-time to football, and what a college career he had: 14 career picks, six pick-sixes, zero games missed due to injury. He may slip to the second round because he weighs only about 170, but one team believes he can play comfortably and with more strength at 185. At 6-1 and running a sub-4.4 40-yard dash, Forbes should go no lower than late in the first, even with the weight question.
Click to expand...

In short, sit back and enjoy the surprises on draft weekend. We’ll see a lot of them.
Click to expand...
 
Bracie Smathers said:
Faust said:
2023 NFL mock draft: QBs go 1-2-3, trades abound in new two-round projections
Click to expand...
This mock has QBs with the first-4 picks, going 1-2-3-4.

1. Carolina Panthers (from CHI): QB Anthony Richardson, Florida​

2. Houston Texans: QB Bryce Young, Alabama​

3. Tennessee Titans (from ARI): QB C.J. Stroud, Ohio State​

4. Indianapolis Colts: QB Will Levis, Kentucky​

Click to expand...

Clickbait season and all but that is just horrible
 
Bracie Smathers said:
Faust said:
NFL combine catching up to evolving state of receivers
Click to expand...
Jim Nagy
@JimNagy_SB
One thing has become clear on calls around league past couple weeks: NFL isn’t nearly as high on this year’s WR class as media. Frequently seeing 4-5 wideouts in mocks. Have spoken to numerous teams that have only one first round grade at the position. That guy is JSN.
Click to expand...
I believe what Nagy is saying but most teams won't have a first round grade on 20 players. So we could see 3-4 WR's go in the first round and what he is saying both be true.
 
Oof and relevant. Nate Tice from the Athletic. This 2023 class wound up the suck for WR.

Nate Tice
@Nate_Tice
·
10h

Tons of smaller prospects in this WR class and a dearth of players with size. Even the ones that do have outside ability have glaring question marks.



even my WR1, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, I gave a late first round grade. I like JSN (especially his feel for route running) and think he can be a great secondary weapon to use from the slot. But do have hesitations on his ceiling. With my middle outcome comparison being Brandon Stokley

https://twitter.com/Nate_Tice
Nate Tice
@Nate_Tice
·
9h

there are players that I like! WRs that I have middle/late Day 2 grades on like Cedric Tillman, AT Perry, Tyler Scott, Jayden Reed and Jonathan Mingo. All have chances to be useful but all have blemishes that you have to be realistic about.

Nate Tice
@Nate_Tice
·
9h

and early Day 3 guys that I’m bullish on are Jalen Moreno-Cropper, Parker Washington, Charlie Jones and Puka Nacua. Again, there are some fine players with stuff to like. But it would be a class where I’d rather just wait until the 3rd to take a WR than anytime before pick 50.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Tice
Nate Tice
https://twitter.com/Nate_Tice
@Nate_Tice
·
5h

but to sum up the whole group: there’s a lot of secondary options - some potentially high-end no. 2s/no. 3s - for passing attacks with a variety of flavors. But no one that projects to be a true ace for your receiving room.
 
rockaction said:
Oof and relevant. Nate Tice from the Athletic. This 2023 class wound up the suck for WR.

Nate Tice
@Nate_Tice
·
10h

Tons of smaller prospects in this WR class and a dearth of players with size. Even the ones that do have outside ability have glaring question marks.



even my WR1, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, I gave a late first round grade. I like JSN (especially his feel for route running) and think he can be a great secondary weapon to use from the slot. But do have hesitations on his ceiling. With my middle outcome comparison being Brandon Stokley

https://twitter.com/Nate_Tice
Nate Tice
@Nate_Tice
·
9h

there are players that I like! WRs that I have middle/late Day 2 grades on like Cedric Tillman, AT Perry, Tyler Scott, Jayden Reed and Jonathan Mingo. All have chances to be useful but all have blemishes that you have to be realistic about.

Nate Tice
@Nate_Tice
·
9h

and early Day 3 guys that I’m bullish on are Jalen Moreno-Cropper, Parker Washington, Charlie Jones and Puka Nacua. Again, there are some fine players with stuff to like. But it would be a class where I’d rather just wait until the 3rd to take a WR than anytime before pick 50.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Tice
Nate Tice
https://twitter.com/Nate_Tice
@Nate_Tice
·
5h

but to sum up the whole group: there’s a lot of secondary options - some potentially high-end no. 2s/no. 3s - for passing attacks with a variety of flavors. But no one that projects to be a true ace for your receiving room.
Click to expand...

Haven’t been on for a few days but this is my response to the trade we were talking about (1.05 player dropping in value if they have a bad year). Outside of JSN I don’t think there will be a lot of patience at the position with regard to value. If you take one of the WRs in the mid 1st and they don’t pop, think their trade value will be rather undesirable. Just look at the top 3 WRs in each of the last three years:

London, Wilson, Olave
Chase, Devonta, Waddle
Lamb, Jeudy, Jefferson

I don’t see Addison, Flowers, or QJ on the level of those guys as prospects.
 
rockaction said:
Oof and relevant. Nate Tice from the Athletic. This 2023 class wound up the suck for WR.

Nate Tice
@Nate_Tice
·
10h

Tons of smaller prospects in this WR class and a dearth of players with size. Even the ones that do have outside ability have glaring question marks.



even my WR1, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, I gave a late first round grade. I like JSN (especially his feel for route running) and think he can be a great secondary weapon to use from the slot. But do have hesitations on his ceiling. With my middle outcome comparison being Brandon Stokley

https://twitter.com/Nate_Tice
Nate Tice
@Nate_Tice
·
9h

there are players that I like! WRs that I have middle/late Day 2 grades on like Cedric Tillman, AT Perry, Tyler Scott, Jayden Reed and Jonathan Mingo. All have chances to be useful but all have blemishes that you have to be realistic about.

Nate Tice
@Nate_Tice
·
9h

and early Day 3 guys that I’m bullish on are Jalen Moreno-Cropper, Parker Washington, Charlie Jones and Puka Nacua. Again, there are some fine players with stuff to like. But it would be a class where I’d rather just wait until the 3rd to take a WR than anytime before pick 50.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Tice
Nate Tice
https://twitter.com/Nate_Tice
@Nate_Tice
·
5h

but to sum up the whole group: there’s a lot of secondary options - some potentially high-end no. 2s/no. 3s - for passing attacks with a variety of flavors. But no one that projects to be a true ace for your receiving room.
Click to expand...
Read these tweet earlier today and just got done listening to the Athletic Football podcast with Tice and Brugler and it actually made me feel even worse about the WR's then these tweets.
 
Interesting breakdown that I found myself agreeing with.
NFL Draft 2023: Breaking Down How the Top Seven Picks Could Play Out Round 1 is bound to be unpredictable, but here’s what seems most likely to happen for the teams at the top.
Carolina... one last puzzle piece: Young did really well on the S2 test, a cognitive assessment to measure processing speed that some teams put a lot of stock in when it comes to evaluating quarterbacks. (Joe Burrow and Justin Fields were high scorers on the test in recent years.) Close to half the NFL’s 32 teams subscribe to the test, the Panthers being one of them. Tepper is also said to be a believer in it.
Houston...comes down to Houston’s effort to go up to No. 1—at one point, the Texans and Bears were closing in on a deal that’d have the teams flipping spots, with Chicago then doing a deal with Carolina to drop from No. 2 to 9. Houston got a little uncomfortable with it in the end, and the Bears moved forward in doing their deal with the Panthers...
...tells us there’s a quarterback it likes enough to take there (otherwise, there’d be no reason to go up). But what if the Texans had only one quarterback they saw as worthy of a top-two pick?
Arizona...the Cardinals have put the third pick on the block. And I think if they have trouble moving it,...
Indianapolis... comes down to their interest in trading for the first pick— ...they just weren’t there yet with the quarterbacks, where they’d be comfortable taking a big swing and going up in the draft order to get one...
...Ballard won’t be afraid to take on a player—at any position, really—who’s got traits and needs development (he was part of the Patrick Mahomes evaluation in Kansas City, remember), so someone like Levis shouldn’t be ruled out if Young and Stroud are gone at fourth.
Seattle...
Go to the link for the full read.
 
Bracie Smathers said:
Bracie Smathers said:
First Round QBs in the 2023 NFL Draft: C.J. Stroud, Bryce Young, Malik Cunningham and Hendon Hooker
Click to expand...
2023 NFL Draft Scouting Report: QB Malik Cunningham, Louisville
Click to expand...
Ryan Fowler
@_RyanFowler_
Louisville QB Malik Cunningham has met with the Commanders, Patriots, Raiders, Ravens, and Colts, a source said.
Dual-threat talent that threw for 9,660 yards // 70 TDs and ran for 3,179 // 50 TDs during his time for the Cardinals.
 
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