DYNASTY: Buy low, Sell high (1 Viewer)

[Concept Coop]

We see these threads every week, and I always enjoy them. But as a near religious dynasty owner, I think we need more dynasty versions. After 2 weeks of football, who are you looking to buy low and sell high? I think more thought goes into this, because the results will impact your team beyond this season. For that same reason, it will be harder to "buy low" on bigger names.

Comment on mine and share yours.

Buy Low:

Larry Fitzgerald - Most quality owners will laugh at you for trying to buy low. Fitz has been the best WR in the game since Randy Moss. He is (barely) 27 and is built to last. Every time I start to think about his age, I remind myself that in 6 seasons, he will still have the value Randy Moss currently has. 6 years! Hell, I could be on my second marriage by then! If you can find someone that is even a little worried about Fitz, go get him.

Ryan Grant - The Packers do not have the answer to RB on their roster. I personally do not believe in Grant's talent, and do not think he is a long term solution. But as a dynasty owner, you know that he doesn't have to be. Get him now for next to nothing. Let GB play musical chairs at the RB spot for the remainder of the season. Wait for the articles about how Grant is "better than ever". Wait for the Pack to go Defense in the draft. Wait for the Pack to be the trendy Super Bowl pick. Then wait a little bit longer...then dump. Find the owner. Send them a crummy offer making Grant a throw in, as if he is just there to keep the roster numbers even. After they decline or counter, go get him.

Lee Evans - He will cost you nothing and is talented. I won't go into it much more than that. He could end up on another team, or Buffalo could find a QB. If he does, your move paid off. If not, you gave up peanuts. His slow start will worry some people. In a dynasty league, you should be stashing talent, and Evans has talent.

Ladanian Tomlinson - If you are in the top 3 of your league, you want this guy on your roster. He will give you RB2 numbers this season and maybe next. Sometimes you have to go all in to get over the top. LT is one of the cheaper "All in" moves I have seen in a couple seasons.

Sell High:

Arian Foster - I just moved Foster in my dynasty league for Andre Johnson (threw in Manningham). That shows you the value Foster has in the eyes of the masses. Foster has a lot going for him and we all know what they are, so I won't waste your time. That said, Foster is an average talent. There are plenty of running backs that could do what Foster has done these two weeks, if inserted into Foster's position. As a dynasty owner, you know that average talents are one draft away from being a nobody. I know that sounds crazy now, but think about this scenario: Houston brings in a guy to keep Foster fresh. Could be someone new, could be a healthy Ben Tate. After the a few games, the coaches notice something: This new guy is doing everything Foster is doing and looks fresher. "Why not keep them both fresh and use them closer to 50/50? We like what Slaton has to offer on 3rd down, lets work him in some too." BOOM RBBC! That is only one of 2 or 3 scenarios in which Foster's value takes a big hit. Again, Foster is unproven and an average talent. If you can move him for someone that thinks he is an elite dynasty back, move him! Now!

Darren McFadden - This one takes balls. He is a former top draft pick, with loads of physical talent. He is finally starting to display that talent. If you think McFadden is the real deal, ignore this. If not, trade him to the people ignoring this. I am just not sold on him and don't see him keeping this up. I see both injuries and Michael Bush slowing him down. See if you can get something big, and move him. I would check in with the Sidney Rice, Beanie Wells, Marques Coslton, and Shaun Greene owners. Move him.

Jahvid Best - I know I am going to get flack for this one. Best had one great game and one awful game. His value as a FF player will most likely be in between there. The bad game doesn't look so bad because he got two "gimme" touchdowns. Don't let that fool you, he did next to nothing. Being the highest scoring back in a lot of formats, a rookie from a big school, with big a big name, on a darling team, he is going to get a ton of hype. If you can move him for a top 10 RB, or a top 7 WR, do it. If you can move him as the major piece to get a stud like AP, do it. If you can move him for another young player, plus another piece (Moreno, draft pick) do it. There is a very good chance that Detroit has a short yardage-back, very soon. There is a very good chance that Detroit decides to protect the smaller Best, keeping him on a pitch count. There is a very good chance that he is in a RBBC at some point in the next 2 years. From a football standpoint, it makes sense for Detroit to use Best more as a specialist, keeping him fresh, in open space, healthy, and using him as a decoy.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Explain "'gimme' touchdown" and how 7 yard and 4 yard scores against a tough D fall into that category.

All those buy lows are terrible. Fitz - price is not going down. Grant - may not even be in GB given his salary/roster bonuses. Evans - they're never going to have a QB. LT - if you're a top 3 team you probably have a #2 RB better than LT and would be trying to sell.

 

[SSOG]

QB Buy Low:

Tony Romo- the Cowboys are struggling, and Romo's never gotten much respect. From 2007 to 2009, though, Tony Romo averaged 21.67 points per game. Peyton Manning over that span averaged 20.58. Miles Austin is one of the 5 best receivers in the NFL today, Dez Bryant is only going to get better, and Jason Witten is still Jason Witten. Tony Romo will be fine.

Ben Roethlisberger- Out of sight, out of mind, huh? Dude was 3rd in PPG last year, and he's no one-year wonder, either. From 2007-2009, he averaged 19.11 points per game, a total which ranks ahead of guys like Philip Rivers and Matt Schaub. Some people have him as a borderline top-12 dynasty QB. The truth is that he'll be a no-brainer fantasy QB1 for the better part of the next decade.

Michael Vick- He'll be starting for someone next year, and he'll be putting up top-12 numbers in the process. Rank accordingly.

QB Sell high:

Eli Manning- Manning's fantasy finishes: 5th, 10th, 13th, 13th, 10th. So far this year, he's 11th. His per-game numbers make him look even worse. At this point, he is what we thought he was- a terrible QB1, a strong QB2. If you can find someone who'll give you solid QB1 value for him, sell him.

RB Buy Low:

Jonathan Stewart/DeAngelo Williams- It's two games, people. Don't forget about the last 2 years just because of the last 2 games. Carolina is still an elite rushing team, and Stewart/Williams are still elite talents.

Jamaal Charles- Yes, he's a backup. That's why this is the perfect time to buy low. Thomas Jones cannot keep him off the field forever.



Donald Brown- He's a former 1st round pick in an explosive offense. Pedigree matters a TON for RBs- just ask Darren McFadden, Cedric Benson, or Rashard Mendenhall, just to name three recent 1st round picks whose owners have given up on them too early.



Marion Barber- Dallas's run game has looked like garbage so far this season, but look at who they played. Aside from shutting down Dallas, the Bears held Jahvid Best to 1.7 yards per carry. Aside from shutting down Dallas, the Redskins held Arian Foster to 3.7 yards per carry. Matchups matter. Despite everyone looking for reasons to bury him, Marion Barber keeps hanging around. He's a fantastic dynasty RB3 who can even serve as a solid enough RB2 in a pinch.

RB Sell High:

Arian Foster/Jahvid Best- if you can find anyone who'll give you elite value for them, take it. I'm not saying trade them just to trade them, because they're both incredibly strong fantasy assets, but if you've got an owner in your league willing to part with a proven high-end stud for these two, pull the trigger.



Michael Turner- The end draws near for the Burner. A lot of people overvalue this season with respect to the future. If you can swap Turner for Mathews, Charles, or Stewart, take it and run.

WR Buy Low:

Vincent Jackson- Even if he sits out the entire season, he's worth acquiring. Think of him like Dez Bryant- both are a longshot to contribute substantial fantasy value this season, but both look like very strong bets for many seasons of top-10 production starting as early as next year.



Michael Crabtree- A lot has been made recently about Crabtree's confrontation with Davis and his half-hearted effort in week 1. Not enough has been made about the fact that Crabtree played hard in week 2, or the fact that he was a top 10 draft pick and perhaps the most prolific WR in big boy college football history (IT'S DIVISION ONE FOOTBAWW! IT'S THA BIG TWEAYLVE! IT AIN'T INTRAMURALS!), or the fact that when taken in context, his rookie season was downright amazing. He's a superlative talent. Go get him.



Sidney Rice/Santonio Holmes- Same principal as with VJax and Roofles: out of sight, out of mind. Guys who aren't playing right now are almost always undervalued in dynasty.



Santana Moss/Chad Ochocinco- Mike Shanahan is the best offensive mind in football. Donovan McNabb is a very, very good QB. Washington's #2 receiver is... Joey Galloway. JOEY GALLOWAY! Santana Moss is the same age as Wayne and Smiff, and he's in line for some very strong seasons in the next couple of years. Ocho's a year older, but he's a multiple-time first-team AP All Pro who's still playing every bit as well as he ever did. It's not like these guys are 34 or 35 years old. They've both got plenty left in the tank.

WR Sell High:

Brandon Marshall- This one's for the non-PPR leagues. If you can get Fitz/AJ/Austin/White/Calvin value for him, then take it and run. Marshall has finished the last 3 seasons in non-PPR as WR9, WR11, and WR9... and now he's in a worse situation. He's a talented WR, but overrated from a fantasy standpoint (again, in non-PPR leagues).



Greg Jennings- I see a lot of people with Jennings in their top 10. I even see people with Jennings in their top 6. Personally, I would recommend finding one of those people in your league and selling to them. He's not even the #1 target on his own offense. He's Marques Colston 2.0- talented WR suffering from "too many mouths to feed" syndrome.



Jeremy Maclin- I really don't get the obscene amounts of love this guy gets. I've seen a lot of people predicting he'll overtake Desean, or at least force a 1A/1B split. I'm not saying it's impossible, but I certainly wouldn't bet on it. Hopefully, if you own Maclin, you can find someone who will.

TE Buy Low:

Dustin Keller- a poor man's Jermichael Finley. Despite all the quality WRs in town, New York's passing game is going to go through Keller.

TE Sell High:

Visanthe Shiancoe- I'm not a huge fan of 30 year old journeyman-level talents whose sole reason for value is going to be retiring after the season. He'll get you quality numbers this year, but that should be the end of Visanthe Shiancoe's career as a starter-caliber fantasy TE.

 

[NorrisB]

Explain "'gimme' touchdown" and how 7 yard and 4 yard scores against a tough D fall into that category.All those buy lows are terrible. Fitz - price is not going down. Grant - may not even be in GB given his salary/roster bonuses. Evans - they're never going to have a QB. LT - if you're a top 3 team you probably have a #2 RB better than LT and would be trying to sell.

lets see your buy low sell high list than genious instead of just critizing op

 

[n20]

I couldn't disagree more on pretty much everyone of your calls, Concept Coop. Just my opinion.

 

[Concept Coop]

Explain "'gimme' touchdown" and how 7 yard and 4 yard scores against a tough D fall into that category.All those buy lows are terrible. Fitz - price is not going down. Grant - may not even be in GB given his salary/roster bonuses. Evans - they're never going to have a QB. LT - if you're a top 3 team you probably have a #2 RB better than LT and would be trying to sell.

Edit: By Gimme, I mean no indication of his talent. Runs that most backs would have made. I know that most TDs fall under that catagory for RBs, and I know they count the same as amazing TDs. Just saying he did not look good at all against the Bears. Fitz's price might not have gone down in your league. Wait a week or two.What would it take to get Grant? Is the chance he is on the roster, a roster with nobody better, worth the next to nothing you give? I think so.Evans - Again. Do you know what buy low means? There is a reason you get him for peanuts. The QB situation. Never is a silly word to use for a dynasty owner. He has put up numbers without a QB in the past. He could find himself on another roster as well. He is talented and can be had for next to nothing. He is a perfect buy low. Trying to sell a player with RB#2 numbers that you have the option to play at the flex or as your #3? I don't think so. I am a top 3 owner in one of my leauges and play LT as my flex. He is one of the better scoring flex optoins around. If something happens to my other 2 RBs, LT moves to RB2. Just becuase LT puts up RB2 numbers, doesn't mean you have to play him as your RB2.

 

[Concept Coop]

I couldn't disagree more on pretty much everyone of your calls, Concept Coop. Just my opinion.

No problem. Mind sharing why that is? If you opinion helps me in the long run, I'll take it! Thanks.

 

[Concept Coop]

Great list, SSOG! I like the Maclin call! Vick showed that he still has the ability to put up QB1 numbers, and win games. I think I would wait a bit longer on Jamal Charles though. I think he will be had for cheaper closer to trade deadlines or over the offseason.

 

[FGITLOTR]

Buy Low RB's

Stewart

Spiller

Lynch

Buy Low WR's

Garcon

Sid Rice

Tate

 

[n20]

I couldn't disagree more on pretty much everyone of your calls, Concept Coop. Just my opinion.

No problem. Mind sharing why that is? If you opinion helps me in the long run, I'll take it! Thanks.

I'd say that my strategy in dynasty FF is to collect as much young elite talent as possible (unless the team is ready to win now). Buying guys like Ryan Grant and LT don't fit that mold because they're either aging or not elite (in my mind). Evans is a sad case of a wasted career (we could say the same for SJax) but I'm not buying because it would take a miracle to fix that situation (o-line and QB). I admit, Fitz will be fine and I'd buy as much of Fitz as I could.As for the sells I don't have any problem with selling McFadden but I don't think you're going to get a top talent for him. I do think Best's talent is in the top 10-15 arena but his situation is even more enticing. The young Lions could put up some serious fantasy points for 3-5 years if they can build around that nucleus.

 

[SSOG]

Great list, SSOG! I like the Maclin call! Vick showed that he still has the ability to put up QB1 numbers, and win games. I think I would wait a bit longer on Jamal Charles though. I think he will be had for cheaper closer to trade deadlines or over the offseason.

If you want Jamaal Charles, don't wait on him. All it takes is him busting one 85 yard TD run and suddenly his price shoots through the roof.

 

[Concept Coop]

I couldn't disagree more on pretty much everyone of your calls, Concept Coop. Just my opinion.

No problem. Mind sharing why that is? If you opinion helps me in the long run, I'll take it! Thanks.

I'd say that my strategy in dynasty FF is to collect as much young elite talent as possible (unless the team is ready to win now). Buying guys like Ryan Grant and LT don't fit that mold because they're either aging or not elite (in my mind). Evans is a sad case of a wasted career (we could say the same for SJax) but I'm not buying because it would take a miracle to fix that situation (o-line and QB). I admit, Fitz will be fine and I'd buy as much of Fitz as I could.As for the sells I don't have any problem with selling McFadden but I don't think you're going to get a top talent for him. I do think Best's talent is in the top 10-15 arena but his situation is even more enticing. The young Lions could put up some serious fantasy points for 3-5 years if they can build around that nucleus.

My strategy changes based on my team's situation. I often trade my young talent for proven talent. I trade a lot of my draft picks too. So far, it has worked out pretty well for me. I am a big "win now, rebuild later" guy. And everybody loves young, elite talent. But it is really hard to buy low on it. But I do see what you are saying. I just don't buy into the young Lions. If I did, I might agree with you. But I don't view Best as top 10-15 either. I coud be wrong and I am not saying it is impossible.

 

[plyka]

We see these threads every week, and I always enjoy them. But as a near religious dynasty owner, I think we need more dynasty versions. After 2 weeks of football, who are you looking to buy low and sell high? I think more thought goes into this, because the results will impact your team beyond this season. For that same reason, it will be harder to "buy low" on bigger names. Comment on mine and share yours.Buy Low: Larry Fitzgerald - Most quality owners will laugh at you for trying to buy low. Fitz has been the best WR in the game since Randy Moss. He is (barely) 27 and is built to last. Every time I start to think about his age, I remind myself that in 6 seasons, he will still have the value Randy Moss currently has. 6 years! Hell, I could be on my second marriage by then! If you can find someone that is even a little worried about Fitz, go get him.Ryan Grant - The Packers do not have the answer to RB on their roster. I personally do not believe in Grant's talent, and do not think he is a long term solution. But as a dynasty owner, you know that he doesn't have to be. Get him now for next to nothing. Let GB play musical chairs at the RB spot for the remainder of the season. Wait for the articles about how Grant is "better than ever". Wait for the Pack to go Defense in the draft. Wait for the Pack to be the trendy Super Bowl pick. Then wait a little bit longer...then dump. Find the owner. Send them a crummy offer making Grant a throw in, as if he is just there to keep the roster numbers even. After they decline or counter, go get him.Lee Evans - He will cost you nothing and is talented. I won't go into it much more than that. He could end up on another team, or Buffalo could find a QB. If he does, your move paid off. If not, you gave up peanuts. His slow start will worry some people. In a dynasty league, you should be stashing talent, and Evans has talent. Ladanian Tomlinson - If you are in the top 3 of your league, you want this guy on your roster. He will give you RB2 numbers this season and maybe next. Sometimes you have to go all in to get over the top. LT is one of the cheaper "All in" moves I have seen in a couple seasons.Sell High:Arian Foster - I just moved Foster in my dynasty league for Andre Johnson (threw in Manningham). That shows you the value Foster has in the eyes of the masses. Foster has a lot going for him and we all know what they are, so I won't waste your time. That said, Foster is an average talent. There are plenty of running backs that could do what Foster has done these two weeks, if inserted into Foster's position. As a dynasty owner, you know that average talents are one draft away from being a nobody. I know that sounds crazy now, but think about this scenario: Houston brings in a guy to keep Foster fresh. Could be someone new, could be a healthy Ben Tate. After the a few games, the coaches notice something: This new guy is doing everything Foster is doing and looks fresher. "Why not keep them both fresh and use them closer to 50/50? We like what Slaton has to offer on 3rd down, lets work him in some too." BOOM RBBC! That is only one of 2 or 3 scenarios in which Foster's value takes a big hit. Again, Foster is unproven and an average talent. If you can move him for someone that thinks he is an elite dynasty back, move him! Now!Darren McFadden - This one takes balls. He is a former top draft pick, with loads of physical talent. He is finally starting to display that talent. If you think McFadden is the real deal, ignore this. If not, trade him to the people ignoring this. I am just not sold on him and don't see him keeping this up. I see both injuries and Michael Bush slowing him down. See if you can get something big, and move him. I would check in with the Sidney Rice, Beanie Wells, Marques Coslton, and Shaun Greene owners. Move him.Jahvid Best - I know I am going to get flack for this one. Best had one great game and one awful game. His value as a FF player will most likely be in between there. The bad game doesn't look so bad because he got two "gimme" touchdowns. Don't let that fool you, he did next to nothing. Being the highest scoring back in a lot of formats, a rookie from a big school, with big a big name, on a darling team, he is going to get a ton of hype. If you can move him for a top 10 RB, or a top 7 WR, do it. If you can move him as the major piece to get a stud like AP, do it. If you can move him for another young player, plus another piece (Moreno, draft pick) do it. There is a very good chance that Detroit has a short yardage-back, very soon. There is a very good chance that Detroit decides to protect the smaller Best, keeping him on a pitch count. There is a very good chance that he is in a RBBC at some point in the next 2 years. From a football standpoint, it makes sense for Detroit to use Best more as a specialist, keeping him fresh, in open space, healthy, and using him as a decoy.

You wrote a lot, but basically it can all be summed up in a few sentences: Anyone who has done very well over the last few years and is not doing well now, buy them. Anyone who is doing great but just burst on to the scene sell them. I'm sure this strategy has some validity. Unfortunately it is going to kill you at the transition points. If someone's career is taking a turn you will completely miss out. This means even if you have Adrian Peterson in his rookie year, you will "sell high" which in reality is selling absurdly low since you don't know what high is. Stock/futures traders usually make this tragic error in judgement. They sell something which "seems high" (something that has gone up quite a bit), but they don't know what high really is since after the run is over they realize that they sold after the first 2%. And of course they paid the price all the way up. Not saying that this will happen to you on your picks, Foster, Best, etc. But Best has all the talent in the world, so if you're willing to give up on him after 2 games, then you'll probably be willing to give up on anyone after 2 games (the next CJ or ADP). That's the problem with your strategy, it will kill you if there is any real transition, but as long as things continue going the way they have for the last few years, then you should do well.

 

[footballsavvy]

SSOG - good list I think.

I was one who could see Maclin being 1B but I am slowing coming around to the fact that I was probably wrong. He's a good receiver, but not special like DeSean. Unfortunately, I don't think many people are looking to acquire him right now. Since he's likely to put up a couple of big games this season it would be wise to dump him on the heels of one of those games. He's a WR3 on an average to decent fantasy team.

Regarding both Keller and Holmes I would like you to elaborate... I have been ponding both of these players lately. If Keller continues to break out as Sanches grows, then where does that leave Santonio's ceiling? Cotchery will still get his 40-60 receptions and Braylon will likley become situational, but hsould still see 40 catches right? Are there enough to go around for both Santonio and Keller to be effective? If you think so, please elaborate. I'm eyeing Holmes moreso than Keller simply because Keller won't come cheap from owners he drafted him as their sleeper TE.

I tried Acquiring Crabtree and he would not budge on him today. He said not even Ryan Mathews could get him. So much for that attempt.

Sell me more on Barber. I could easily acquire him cheap, but I have not been a big fan ever since he floundered his starting gig last year. Isn't he starting to get a little old for dynasty purposes... especailly considering his playstyle. I suppose its all relative if I get him cheap enough.

 

[Concept Coop]

You wrote a lot, but basically it can all be summed up in a few sentences: Anyone who has done very well over the last few years and is not doing well now, buy them. Anyone who is doing great but just burst on to the scene sell them. I'm sure this strategy has some validity. Unfortunately it is going to kill you at the transition points. If someone's career is taking a turn you will completely miss out. This means even if you have Adrian Peterson in his rookie year, you will "sell high" which in reality is selling absurdly low since you don't know what high is. Stock/futures traders usually make this tragic error in judgement. They sell something which "seems high" (something that has gone up quite a bit), but they don't know what high really is since after the run is over they realize that they sold after the first 2%. And of course they paid the price all the way up. Not saying that this will happen to you on your picks, Foster, Best, etc. But Best has all the talent in the world, so if you're willing to give up on him after 2 games, then you'll probably be willing to give up on anyone after 2 games (the next CJ or ADP). That's the problem with your strategy, it will kill you if there is any real transition, but as long as things continue going the way they have for the last few years, then you should do well.

That is not what I said at all. LT is playing well, he is buy. Grant is not playing at all and is a buy. In dynasty, there are plenty of players performing well that are "buys". You are looking at what I said and applying blanket logic to it. That was not my intent at all. Most of what you said can be summed up, if I apply blanket logic to it too: You never know, so you could hurt yourself in the long run.Where you miss the point is here, the stock market has major players that can continually spot trends and continute to make money. They don't have a crystal ball and do "miss" sometimes. But they do a lot better than those that do nothing to recognize trends and always play it safe.

 

[footballsavvy]

We see these threads every week, and I always enjoy them. But as a near religious dynasty owner, I think we need more dynasty versions. After 2 weeks of football, who are you looking to buy low and sell high? I think more thought goes into this, because the results will impact your team beyond this season. For that same reason, it will be harder to "buy low" on bigger names. Comment on mine and share yours.Buy Low: Larry Fitzgerald - Most quality owners will laugh at you for trying to buy low. Fitz has been the best WR in the game since Randy Moss. He is (barely) 27 and is built to last. Every time I start to think about his age, I remind myself that in 6 seasons, he will still have the value Randy Moss currently has. 6 years! Hell, I could be on my second marriage by then! If you can find someone that is even a little worried about Fitz, go get him.Ryan Grant - The Packers do not have the answer to RB on their roster. I personally do not believe in Grant's talent, and do not think he is a long term solution. But as a dynasty owner, you know that he doesn't have to be. Get him now for next to nothing. Let GB play musical chairs at the RB spot for the remainder of the season. Wait for the articles about how Grant is "better than ever". Wait for the Pack to go Defense in the draft. Wait for the Pack to be the trendy Super Bowl pick. Then wait a little bit longer...then dump. Find the owner. Send them a crummy offer making Grant a throw in, as if he is just there to keep the roster numbers even. After they decline or counter, go get him.Lee Evans - He will cost you nothing and is talented. I won't go into it much more than that. He could end up on another team, or Buffalo could find a QB. If he does, your move paid off. If not, you gave up peanuts. His slow start will worry some people. In a dynasty league, you should be stashing talent, and Evans has talent. Ladanian Tomlinson - If you are in the top 3 of your league, you want this guy on your roster. He will give you RB2 numbers this season and maybe next. Sometimes you have to go all in to get over the top. LT is one of the cheaper "All in" moves I have seen in a couple seasons.Sell High:Arian Foster - I just moved Foster in my dynasty league for Andre Johnson (threw in Manningham). That shows you the value Foster has in the eyes of the masses. Foster has a lot going for him and we all know what they are, so I won't waste your time. That said, Foster is an average talent. There are plenty of running backs that could do what Foster has done these two weeks, if inserted into Foster's position. As a dynasty owner, you know that average talents are one draft away from being a nobody. I know that sounds crazy now, but think about this scenario: Houston brings in a guy to keep Foster fresh. Could be someone new, could be a healthy Ben Tate. After the a few games, the coaches notice something: This new guy is doing everything Foster is doing and looks fresher. "Why not keep them both fresh and use them closer to 50/50? We like what Slaton has to offer on 3rd down, lets work him in some too." BOOM RBBC! That is only one of 2 or 3 scenarios in which Foster's value takes a big hit. Again, Foster is unproven and an average talent. If you can move him for someone that thinks he is an elite dynasty back, move him! Now!Darren McFadden - This one takes balls. He is a former top draft pick, with loads of physical talent. He is finally starting to display that talent. If you think McFadden is the real deal, ignore this. If not, trade him to the people ignoring this. I am just not sold on him and don't see him keeping this up. I see both injuries and Michael Bush slowing him down. See if you can get something big, and move him. I would check in with the Sidney Rice, Beanie Wells, Marques Coslton, and Shaun Greene owners. Move him.Jahvid Best - I know I am going to get flack for this one. Best had one great game and one awful game. His value as a FF player will most likely be in between there. The bad game doesn't look so bad because he got two "gimme" touchdowns. Don't let that fool you, he did next to nothing. Being the highest scoring back in a lot of formats, a rookie from a big school, with big a big name, on a darling team, he is going to get a ton of hype. If you can move him for a top 10 RB, or a top 7 WR, do it. If you can move him as the major piece to get a stud like AP, do it. If you can move him for another young player, plus another piece (Moreno, draft pick) do it. There is a very good chance that Detroit has a short yardage-back, very soon. There is a very good chance that Detroit decides to protect the smaller Best, keeping him on a pitch count. There is a very good chance that he is in a RBBC at some point in the next 2 years. From a football standpoint, it makes sense for Detroit to use Best more as a specialist, keeping him fresh, in open space, healthy, and using him as a decoy.

You wrote a lot, but basically it can all be summed up in a few sentences: Anyone who has done very well over the last few years and is not doing well now, buy them. Anyone who is doing great but just burst on to the scene sell them. I'm sure this strategy has some validity. Unfortunately it is going to kill you at the transition points. If someone's career is taking a turn you will completely miss out. This means even if you have Adrian Peterson in his rookie year, you will "sell high" which in reality is selling absurdly low since you don't know what high is. Stock/futures traders usually make this tragic error in judgement. They sell something which "seems high" (something that has gone up quite a bit), but they don't know what high really is since after the run is over they realize that they sold after the first 2%. And of course they paid the price all the way up. Not saying that this will happen to you on your picks, Foster, Best, etc. But Best has all the talent in the world, so if you're willing to give up on him after 2 games, then you'll probably be willing to give up on anyone after 2 games (the next CJ or ADP). That's the problem with your strategy, it will kill you if there is any real transition, but as long as things continue going the way they have for the last few years, then you should do well.

There's a little more to it than that. Some players are underperforming for reasons that are likely to be permanent. These are not buy low candidates. Likewise some players are over-performing their statistical expected values and its very likely to regress. No one is saying that you should give away Javid Best or Arian Foster. However, as someone pointed out, he got Andre Johnson for Foster in a trade. Clearly when an established stud is offerend in exchange for a guy who has been a stud for exactly 1 week, you 'sell high' even though it might backfire every now and then. If you are the stubborn fool who won't let go of Demaryius Thomas for Roddy White, then you will ultimately lose your dynasty league year after year after year after year.... even if you make the right call once in awhile.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Edit: By Gimme, I mean no indication of his talent. Runs that most backs would have made. I know that most TDs fall under that catagory for RBs, and I know they count the same as amazing TDs. Just saying he did not look good at all against the Bears.

I don't think so. The 7 yard td required speed around the edge and burst. The 4 yard td was a between the tackles play smaller RBs don't often make. He pinballed at the end but made it through.

What would it take to get Grant? Is the chance he is on the roster, a roster with nobody better, worth the next to nothing you give? I think so.

I'd rather have the 3rd. I'd rather have the open roster space to gamble on Peerman or Parmele bubbling up to the surface due to injury later this year. Grant is not a starter next year.

Evans - Again. Do you know what buy low means? There is a reason you get him for peanuts. The QB situation. Never is a silly word to use for a dynasty owner. He has put up numbers without a QB in the past. He could find himself on another roster as well. He is talented and can be had for next to nothing. He is a perfect buy low.

And has been for 3 or 4 years now. If you bought him low in 08 you're still waiting for him to be startable. Best case is he becomes Santana Moss this year (new QB, new expectations, a little long in the tooth). But Moss has trade value around 2nd round pick.BUYSRB:Stewart - next year will be #1 rb with a different HC. Wells/Greene - value is dropping. better days are ahead.D.Brown - quietly got a lot of carries in the blowout.T.Choice - will start somewhere eventually. nice throw-in to bigger trade.B.Scott - nice talent if Benson slows down or seems not worth the money next year.WR:S.Rice - this year is proving how bad offense needs him. Royal - people still feel burned by last year. I believe.Britt - value has never been lower. quietly did better once Collins came in.Knox - best chance to stick with Cutler long term. undervalued due to lack of TDs, otherwise doing great.Big Mike Williams - people will start writing him off because he started slowMurphy - breaking outStephen Williams - nice talent/situation if they decide not to pay breastonQB:Stafford - was the best chance for a breakout QB this year. injury just delays that a few months. detroit offense is for real.Kolb - some chance his value is lowest ever right now. he will get a couple months to right the ship and start looking more like 2009 Kolb.SELLSRB:Gore, SJax, DeAngelo, Turner - Any RB 27+ who people will pay RB1 prices for needs to be sold if your roster can handle it. This is the best time to sell them.McFadden - Easy choice but some chance he continues to deliver and it bites you.Forte - Easy choice. Treat him like a 27+ year old RB on his last legs. Great situation this year, little chance for continued success.Brandon Jackson - tick tock to the trade deadline.WR:Santana Moss - no longer a gamebreaker. piling up receptions, but what happens if McNabb is gone next year or they sign a FA? his value plummets.Ocho - value is inflated by big w1 when they got creamed by NE. my main concern is he is tied to Palmer for the foreseeable future.TO - accept the ham sandwich.TE:Hernandez - price is inflated right now due to upside. Isn't going to be a consistent starter anytime soon.

 

[SSOG]

SSOG - good list I think. I was one who could see Maclin being 1B but I am slowing coming around to the fact that I was probably wrong. He's a good receiver, but not special like DeSean. Unfortunately, I don't think many people are looking to acquire him right now. Since he's likely to put up a couple of big games this season it would be wise to dump him on the heels of one of those games. He's a WR3 on an average to decent fantasy team.Regarding both Keller and Holmes I would like you to elaborate... I have been ponding both of these players lately. If Keller continues to break out as Sanches grows, then where does that leave Santonio's ceiling? Cotchery will still get his 40-60 receptions and Braylon will likley become situational, but hsould still see 40 catches right? Are there enough to go around for both Santonio and Keller to be effective? If you think so, please elaborate. I'm eyeing Holmes moreso than Keller simply because Keller won't come cheap from owners he drafted him as their sleeper TE.I tried Acquiring Crabtree and he would not budge on him today. He said not even Ryan Mathews could get him. So much for that attempt.Sell me more on Barber. I could easily acquire him cheap, but I have not been a big fan ever since he floundered his starting gig last year. Isn't he starting to get a little old for dynasty purposes... especailly considering his playstyle. I suppose its all relative if I get him cheap enough.

IIRC, both Holmes and Edwards are UFAs at the end of the season. I think one of them walks. Cotchery is a decent enough WR, but not the kind of guy who's going to steal meaningful targets from a quality receiver. I think long-term the NYJets transform into the Keller and Holmes show. As Sanchez demonstrated last night, there's a reason he was a top 5 draft pick. He could still bust, but I liked him a lot coming into the league and I think he continues to develop. I don't think Holmes is ever going to be a top 10 guy, but I think he can rack up a lot of top 20 finishes going forward.As for Barber... he's 27, which is the same age as Frank Gore, DeAngelo Williams, Steven Jackson, Cedric Benson, and Joseph Addai. He's got several years left in him. He's currently the 1A RB in a committee... but that's the exact same role he played in while finishing 14th, 7th, 17th, and 21st over the last 4 years. He was 21st last year despite playing through a quad injury, and supposedly looks better this year. Felix fans keep writing him off because they think their boy is about to take over, but Barber keeps holding off Felix's challenge and holding on to the starting job and the red zone work. I think Barber has a couple more top-24 finishes left in the tank, which is a great value for a guy who is going for peanuts right now.

 

[ROBOPUNTER]

BUY LOW:

Zach Miller, TE OAK

 

[gheemony]

Please elaborate on Royal as a buy. To me, he's on the mass of WR2/WR3s and I don't see much upside in non-PPR. It seems like he'll be the Welker/Smith-North slot guy with lots of catches and consistent yards, but rarely enough TDs to make him a difference maker. And he always seems nicked up.

Obviously, if the price is low enough and your roster could use consistent output (vs. Devery Henderson boom-bust) at WR3, then a nice buy.

 

[SSOG]

What do you think about trading Crabtree for J. Charles and Beanie Wells for Demaryius Thomas in a Dynasty league, two team trade? I would be getting Charles and Thomas.

I have Ocho, G. Jennings, and Naannee should I try it with any of these guys instead.

I think you should probably check out the Assistant Coach Forum.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Please elaborate on Royal as a buy. To me, he's on the mass of WR2/WR3s and I don't see much upside in non-PPR. It seems like he'll be the Welker/Smith-North slot guy with lots of catches and consistent yards, but rarely enough TDs to make him a difference maker. And he always seems nicked up.Obviously, if the price is low enough and your roster could use consistent output (vs. Devery Henderson boom-bust) at WR3, then a nice buy.

I think you are underestimating his playmaking abilities. I see him as roughly equivalent to Santonio Holmes - a little less ability, a little better situation. Holmes will have trouble putting up TDs too, but has been solid in all formats.I'd much rather have Royal than the following guys I see ranked around himMeachem, Jacoby, Braylon, Santana, Evans, Floyd, Massaquoi, SS-North, McCluster, G-Tate, Breaston, ClaytonI would easily pay top 50 prices because I think he is a borderline top 30 WR. In PPR more so.The fact you picked that name out over Knox (similar guy, less ability) kind of proves the point. I have more faith in Royal's ability than Knox (and I have been buying Knox a lot).