Dynasty: College or Birth/Location deciding factor when evaluating talent. (1 Viewer)

[Tha Guru]

Playing FF for so long you start to develop your way of judging players that are about to enter the NFL. Some watch a lot of film and some just use others opinion to help make tough decisions.

When the time comes to draft, do you use what school they played for or where they are from as a small or large part of your decision making?

For a long time I used what I saw on the field and didn't care what school or where they are from. As time has passed I have developed a biased towards these 2 factors.

Example, any big time WR coming out of Louisiana I'm in on these days. In a 5 year period you have Justin Jefferson, Jamarr Chase, CD Lamb (born there and early childhood) Malik Nabors, Devonta Smith, Keon Coleman, Brian Thomas Jr, etc. I have a bias that I can't ignore.

Unfortunately, this same bias caused me to miss out on CJ Stroud as I have been burned too many times by Ohio St QB's.

I'm just curious if I'm in the majority or minority on this.

 

[JohnnyU]

I do pay attention to certain schools for certain positions, but not too much attention. I don’t think where they are from matters. Meaning where they were raised. I’ve also seen players bust many times from big time schools. Most recently, Kayshon Boutte and Terrace Marshall for LSU. The list of big time school busts are too many to list. In DEVY, one name that sticks out to me is Julian Fleming WR Penn. St., formally Ohio St. I doubt he ever amounts to anything and the DEVY community was all over him a few years ago. At the end of the day, what school a player is from ranks low on my list of evaluations, but I do pay attention. Where a player is from is irrelevant.

 

[Bossman]

School makes a tiny difference to me. Born and raised location, not so much.
Gonna give away this secret. Don't tell anyone.
This is going to sound weird but when I'm evaluating players, I look at birthdays.
Born Oct thru Jan seem to be common for quite a few NFL players. Nov is the sweet spot for your future studs.
I don't know why but I think there may be something to this zodiac sign thing.
November born seem to be uber competitive and have a drive to succeed greater than most for whatever reason.
Not just NFL but every sport and competition.

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

School makes a tiny difference to me. Born and raised location, not so much.
Gonna give away this secret. Don't tell anyone.
This is going to sound weird but when I'm evaluating players, I look at birthdays.
Born Oct thru Jan seem to be common for quite a few NFL players. Nov is the sweet spot for your future studs.
I don't know why but I think there may be something to this zodiac sign thing.
November born seem to be uber competitive and have a drive to succeed greater than most for whatever reason.
Not just NFL but every sport and competition.

Fascinating. I'll have to watch this. Now, this doesn't defeat your theory in any way, but we should point out that this corresponds with Valentine's Day. That shouldn't be much of a variable for birthdates. However, there's certainly a joke to be made there with respect to my married days in a past life.


Every time I watch Golden Gophers football, I'm reminded of the fact that Big Ten teams that aren't Michigan and Ohio State are playing a different sport than what's played in the NFL and SEC. It's always good to see production at the top level of college football when drafting rookies. However, this can negatively impact how I feel about some of the players that come out of power programs that might not test through the roof at the combine. For instance, I definitely had a bias against guys like Brian Robinson Jr., Joe Burrow, and CJ Stroud. "Of course you guys were going to do well. You had every advantage working in your favor."

Not going to lie, I'm probably also pulling (and leaning towards) guys that stay in the same program instead of jumping around the country to follow NIL. I don't play IDP, but Quinyon Mitchell's story about staying at Toledo would have made me very bullish, despite competing in the MAC.

On the other side, Jordan Addison's 140mph speeding ticket, combined with a less than impressive post-draft press conference, fit my narrative of a clueless diva enough for me to stay away. Even though I'm sure there was zero reason to fault him for moving from Pitt to USC after Pickett's departure.

Also, how can anyone not be "in" on the next Iowa TE prospect at this point?

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

Born Oct thru Jan seem to be common for quite a few NFL players. Nov is the sweet spot for your future studs.
I don't know why but I think there may be something to this zodiac sign thing.
November born seem to be uber competitive and have a drive to succeed greater than most for whatever reason.
Not just NFL but every sport and competition.

Do you think maybe it's the football broadcast permeating through their first months of life? I wonder if there are a lot of pryomaniacs born in June / early July.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Born Oct thru Jan seem to be common for quite a few NFL players. Nov is the sweet spot for your future studs.
I don't know why but I think there may be something to this zodiac sign thing.
November born seem to be uber competitive and have a drive to succeed greater than most for whatever reason.
Not just NFL but every sport and competition.

Do you think maybe it's the football broadcast permeating through their first months of life? I wonder if there are a lot of pryomaniacs born in June / early July.

Hockey players in Canada born during this time period (or maybe a different 3 month period) supposedly well outperformed those with other birthdates over time, with theory that they were always the oldest within a yearly class and thus more likely to do well and thus more likely to get more attention from coaches. At least that was according to Gladwell from the outliers many years ago, so for all I know, it’s been disproven since

 

[Bossman]

Born Oct thru Jan seem to be common for quite a few NFL players. Nov is the sweet spot for your future studs.
I don't know why but I think there may be something to this zodiac sign thing.
November born seem to be uber competitive and have a drive to succeed greater than most for whatever reason.
Not just NFL but every sport and competition.

Do you think maybe it's the football broadcast permeating through their first months of life? I wonder if there are a lot of pryomaniacs born in June / early July.

Hockey players in Canada born during this time period (or maybe a different 3 month period) supposedly well outperformed those with other birthdates over time, with theory that they were always the oldest within a yearly class and thus more likely to do well and thus more likely to get more attention from coaches. At least that was according to Gladwell from the outliers many years ago, so for all I know, it’s been disproven since

I've also read this theory of players being better because they are a few months older ... I don't buy it.
a 15 1/2 year old shouldn't be so much more developed than a 15 year old that they're more likely to go to the next level and make it to the big leagues.
I'm sticking with my zodiac theory.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Born Oct thru Jan seem to be common for quite a few NFL players. Nov is the sweet spot for your future studs.
I don't know why but I think there may be something to this zodiac sign thing.
November born seem to be uber competitive and have a drive to succeed greater than most for whatever reason.
Not just NFL but every sport and competition.

Do you think maybe it's the football broadcast permeating through their first months of life? I wonder if there are a lot of pryomaniacs born in June / early July.

Hockey players in Canada born during this time period (or maybe a different 3 month period) supposedly well outperformed those with other birthdates over time, with theory that they were always the oldest within a yearly class and thus more likely to do well and thus more likely to get more attention from coaches. At least that was according to Gladwell from the outliers many years ago, so for all I know, it’s been disproven since

I've also read this theory of players being better because they are a few months older ... I don't buy it.
a 15 1/2 year old shouldn't be so much more developed than a 15 year old that they're more likely to go to the next level and make it to the big leagues.
I'm sticking with my zodiac theory.

It’s about being better at much younger ages than that which are proportionally more impactful. Like a 6, 7, 8 year old vs 6.75, 7.75, 8.75. I’m not really tied to the theory and I have no idea how it applies to football, but I think you are misrepresenting it a bit, Zodiac killer.

 

[joey]

Born Oct thru Jan seem to be common for quite a few NFL players. Nov is the sweet spot for your future studs.
I don't know why but I think there may be something to this zodiac sign thing.
November born seem to be uber competitive and have a drive to succeed greater than most for whatever reason.
Not just NFL but every sport and competition.

Do you think maybe it's the football broadcast permeating through their first months of life? I wonder if there are a lot of pryomaniacs born in June / early July.

Hockey players in Canada born during this time period (or maybe a different 3 month period) supposedly well outperformed those with other birthdates over time, with theory that they were always the oldest within a yearly class and thus more likely to do well and thus more likely to get more attention from coaches. At least that was according to Gladwell from the outliers many years ago, so for all I know, it’s been disproven since

Came here to post this about Gladwell, Outliers and hockey data.
Gotta imagine similar holds true for football players. Even if it’s only a slight edge, it’s still data that might be worth taking into account.

That said…I haven’t done my own rankings in a million years and just use FBG rankings and then do some “salt to taste” to tweak, so it’s not like I’ll be running the numbers and injecting birthdate into my rankings