[DYNASTY] Finding Value in Dynasty Drafts (1 Viewer)

[EBF]

What follows is an extremely long and disjointed post. My intention is to provide a very crude outline of my dynasty drafting strategy for the sake of discussion.

I'm just finishing up a 26 round dynasty draft for a 12 team ppr league that starts 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE, 3 FLX, 1 PK, and 1 D/ST. I've been drafting extremely young and have taken a lot of flak for it. I figured it might be worthwhile to explain my philosophy and why I made some of the picks that I did.

First off, here's my draft:

1.03 - Reggie Bush

1.09 - Larry Fitzgerald

5.03 - Ben Roethlisberger

5.12 - Jeremy Shockey

6.01 - LenDale White

7.03 - Laveranues Coles

7.09 - Antonio Bryant

8.10 - Matt Jones

9.03 - Chad Jackson

10.10 - Ben Troupe

11.03 - Eddie Kennison

11.09 - Santonio Holmes

12.10 - Marcedes Lewis

14.06 - Alex Smith (QB)

16.06 - Reggie Williams

16.10 - Derek Hagan

17.03 - Aaron Rodgers

18.10 - Cedric Cobbs

19.03 - Justin Fargas

20.10 - Brad Smith

21.03 - Wali Lundy

22.10 - Willie Reid

23.03 - Chargers D

24.10 - Saints D

25.03 - Phil Dawson

26.10 - OTC

My final post-draft roster, with projected starters in bold:

QB - Ben Roethlisberger, Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers

RB - Reggie Bush, LenDale White, Cedric Cobbs, Justin Fargas, Wali Lundy

WR - Larry Fitzgerald, Laveranues Coles, Eddie Kennison, Antonio Bryant, Matt Jones, Reggie Williams, Santonio Holmes, Chad Jackson, Derek Hagan, Brad Smith, Willie Reid

TE - Jeremy Shockey, Ben Troupe, Marcedes Lewis

Your first reaction is probably that I went too young. It certainly may have been a mistake to pass up Portis and Alexander for Bush, and McNabb and Brady for Roethlisberger. I'll admit that, but those were the talent evaluations that I made. I chose to stick with them, which brings me to my first big strategic point:

In dynasty drafts, the future is now

1. It's tempting to focus entirely on the upcoming season, but you really should consider a player's long-term prospects before choosing him. The fact of the matter is, if you build strictly to "win now" then you're setting yourself up for an ugly situation if you fail. I've seen a lot of "win now" teams crash and burn immediately. This is the worst possible situation to be in as an owner. Not only do you have a bad team, but you also have an old team. Because you have no developing prospects "in the oven," you'll have to re-build completely from scratch.

On the contrary, if you undershoot and draft "too young" then the consolation is that your young players still have the potential to develop in the coming seasons. What this means is that your team has growth potential and the ability to re-build from within, instead of having to do everything through trades and the rookie draft.

2. A second part of my "the future is now" belief is that you shouldn't draft anything but elite players or players who have a chance to be elite. Does anyone really think Reuben Droughns is an elite talent? Then why bother to use a pick on him? Mediocre players do not last in the NFL. It just doesn't happen. With the constant influx of talent from the draft and free agency, bad players will always be squeezed out of good situations. You should avoid mediocrity in dynasty leagues because mediocre players don't last in the NFL, and your primary concern should be sustained impact (because it's a dynasty league).

Do you see how my draft reflects this last idea? With my early picks, I made sure to secure an elite talent at every starting position: Roethlisberger at QB, Bush at RB, Fitzgerald at WR, and Shockey at TE. I then added a second potentially-elite RB in LenDale White and two proven veterans WRs (Coles and Bryant).

Once the quality proven talent was off the board, I started to take unproven young players with excellent pedigrees. Look again at my picks from round 8 on:

8.10 - Matt Jones

9.03 - Chad Jackson

10.10 - Ben Troupe

11.03 - Eddie Kennison

11.09 - Santonio Holmes

12.10 - Marcedes Lewis

14.06 - Alex Smith (QB)

16.06 - Reggie Williams

16.10 - Derek Hagan

17.03 - Aaron Rodgers

18.10 - Cedric Cobbs

19.03 - Justin Fargas

20.10 - Brad Smith

21.03 - Wali Lundy

22.10 - Willie Reid

Notice any trends? Aside from Kennison, all of these guys are first, second, or third year players with respectable draft pedigrees. 7 of them were first round picks. 2 of them were second round picks. 3 of them were third round picks. Only 3 were second day picks and only one of those was chosen after the fourth round.

Why stock up on so many unproven youngsters? Because that's where the stars of tomorrow are most likely to come from.

Prior to doing this draft, I went over the results from my most recent PPR dynasty draft, which took place in 2003. I went through the list of every pick and marked the selections that struck me as being steals. Here they are:

QB Steals

12.02 - Marc Bulger

14.04 - Carson Palmer

16.09 - Jake Delhomme

It's tough to find a pattern here. Bulger and Delhomme were backups, although Delhomme was going to have a chance to win the starting job. Palmer was a rookie slated for backup duty.

RB Steals

6.11 - Larry Johnson

7.04 - LaMont Jordan

9.04 - Chris Brown

9.11 - Willis McGahee

12.12 - DeShaun Foster

13.02 - Thomas Jones

22.12 - Brian Westbrook

Now we're starting to find some definite patterns. Every single one of these guys was a first day NFL draft pick. Secondly, every single one of them was a backup at the time of the draft.

What conclusion did I draw from this? If you're looking for RB steals in an initial dynasty draft, you should focus on untested first day NFL draft picks who are currently backups on their team. Who are some players who fit this description?

2006: DeAngelo Williams, Laurence Maroney, LenDale White, Joseph Addai, Maurice Drew, Jerious Norwood, Brian Calhoun

2005: Cedric Benson, JJ Arrington, Eric Shelton, Frank Gore, Ryan Moats, Vernand Morency

2004: Chris Perry, Greg Jones

2003: Musa Smith, Justin Fargas

There's a pretty good chance that the next few dynasty RB steals will come from the above list.

Using my personal talent evaluations and average draft position data, I narrowed my draftable sleeper RBs down to: LenDale White, Ryan Moats, Chris Perry, Justin Fargas, and William Green. I was able to land two of these five.

WR Steals

5.01 - Chad Johnson

7.06 - Darrell Jackson

9.07 - Reggie Wayne

9.08 - Javon Walker

10.09 - Santana Moss

11.10 - Alge Crumpler

12.09 - Drew Bennett

13.08 - Deion Branch

14.08 - Steve Smith

19.09 - Jason Witten

20.09 - Anquan Boldin

The patterns aren't as strong as they were for the RBs, but there are still some clear trends here. With the exception of Drew Bennett and Jason Witten, all of these guys were first day NFL draft picks. Most of them were first, second, or third year players who had shown moderate promise.

I won't bother to list all of the players who currently fit this descrition, but I will once more list my late WR picks from my recent draft:

8.10 - Matt Jones

9.03 - Chad Jackson

11.09 - Santonio Holmes

12.10 - Marcedes Lewis

16.06 - Reggie Williams

16.10 - Derek Hagan

20.10 - Brad Smith

22.10 - Willie Reid

Notice a trend? With the exception of fourth round QB convert Brad Smith, all of these guys are first, second, or third year WRs who were chosen on the first day of the NFL draft. That's not a coincidence.

I guess that brings me to my conclusion.

Make every pick count - I firmly believe that in a dynasty draft, you should pay minimal attention to lineup concerns and short term potential. I think you should instead focus on drafting players who have a chance to be long term contributors.

In the early rounds, this means selecting elite freakish talents (Shockey, Bush, Fitzgerald, Roethlisberger). As the draft moves into the later rounds, this means drafting untested young players with good draft pedigrees. They won't all pan out, but they offer a lot more value potential than the veteran scrubs who will be chosen in the same range.

 

[Slinger]

Good read. Do you expect to not make the playoffs in the initial year?

 

[EBF]

Good read.  Do you expect to not make the playoffs in the initial year?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I don't even really worry about it. With each pick, I ask myself, "Who is the best available talent who will not be on the board the next time I pick?" I then choose that player. The goal is to stockpile talent and acquire lots of players whose values will increase in the next few years while avoiding players whose values will decrease. If you can accumulate a talent surplus then you can draft BPA in the rookie draft (as opposed to being forced to draft for need), and you can package your bench players for starter upgrades.

 

[carlosnphilly]

I've been drafting extremely young and have taken a lot of flak for it.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

As long as your happy with your team, who gives a damn what others think.Reality is they're pissed that you stole a few sleepers from them that they were going to take.

 

[EBF]

I've been drafting extremely young and have taken a lot of flak for it.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

As long as your happy with your team, who gives a damn what others think.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I don't care at all. The reason I posted this is so that other people might consider some the ideas when drafting their own teams.

 

[Donnybrook]

Curious as to what happened to your 2nd 3rd and 4th round picks.

 

[The Man Who Met Andy Griffith]

Curious as to what happened to your 2nd 3rd and 4th round picks.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Looks like he picked up an extra 5th, an extra 7th, moved up into the first (from 2.10) and probably nabbed some future first rounders.

 

[EBF]

Curious as to what happened to your 2nd 3rd and 4th round picks.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Looks like he picked up an extra 5th, an extra 7th, moved up into the first (from 2.10) and probably nabbed some future first rounders.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I got a little sloppy with the pick trades. Basically, I got an extra first, fifth, seventh, and eleventh. I also positioned myself on the turn at 5.12/6.01 because I knew I'd be able to land two of Lee Evans, Todd Heap, Jeremy Shockey, LenDale White, and Chris Perry.

 

[salmonstud]

Funk,

I ask your advice quite often in terms of evaluating talent....but I believe you did a very poor job of utilizing ADP (Average Draft Position) and trading down in this draft.

As you noted in your intro....you received grief from your league mates about passing over vet talent and gambling on rookies & young players. Several of the players you picked could have been selected a round or two later. For example...Big Ben could have been had in round 6 or later. You could have traded your round 5 pick.....picked up draft position in subsequent rounds and still selected Big Ben in the next round.

 

[Portis 26]

It makes all the sense in the world to load up on talented young players in an initial dynasty draft.

My only criticism is, I think you ought to have drafted more RBs. With so many flex spots I think it made sense to load up on them rather than WRs.

 

[EBF]

My only criticism is, I think you ought to have drafted more RBs. With so many flex spots I think it made sense to load up on them rather than WRs.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I actually believe that dynasty teams should be built around WRs, TEs, and QBs. In my opinion, RB is the least important position because RBs are the most injury-prone, have the shortest careers, and are the most likely to produce as rookies (meaning you can always add a good one from the draft if you have to). Anyhow, I'm not in any way suggesting that I did perfectly, but I think this draft is a good example that illustrates my personal dynasty philosophy.

 

[jurb26]

Funk,

I ask your advice quite often in terms of evaluating talent....but I believe you did a very poor job of utilizing ADP (Average Draft Position) and trading down in this draft. 

As you noted in your intro....you received grief from your league mates about passing over vet talent and gambling on rookies & young players.  Several of the players you picked could have been selected a round or two later.  For example...Big Ben could have been had in round 6 or later.  You could have traded your round 5 pick.....picked up draft position in subsequent rounds and still selected Big Ben in the next round.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Thats what I was thinking as well. I like the strat and enjoyed the read. Some of those picks however where reaches. You could have traded down and still gotten them. I alwyas say draft the guy you want. Did you at least explore trade possibilities before a lot of these picks though? I'm really curious as to your 1st round pick. I would guess people would offer something nice to move up and pick Portis or SA.Oh and there is no way in hell you will be starting 3 WRs this year. White will be one of your starters.

 

[EBF]

Funk,

I ask your advice quite often in terms of evaluating talent....but I believe you did a very poor job of utilizing ADP (Average Draft Position) and trading down in this draft. 

You're probably right, but ADP is of little concern to me in a dynasty draft. My number one focus is on landing players that I believe in. If that means reaching a few rounds, then that means reaching a few rounds. It's better to reach than to end up with players that you don't believe in.

Several of the players you picked could have been selected a round or two later.  For example...Big Ben could have been had in round 6 or later.  You could have traded your round 5 pick.....picked up draft position in subsequent rounds and still selected Big Ben in the next round.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That's true, but there was a QB run right in that range and there were no guarantees that he'd last anything more than a few picks. When you really want a player on your team, you need to do what's necessary to get him. I have Roethlisberger rated as a top 15 overall player, so I didn't feel the slightest bit of remorse about taking him where I did.

 

[EBF]

Thats what I was thinking as well.  I like the strat and enjoyed the read.  Some of those picks however where reaches.  You could have traded down and still gotten them.  I alwyas say draft the guy you want.  Did you at least explore trade possibilities before a lot of these picks though?  I'm really curious as to your 1st round pick.  I would guess people would offer something nice to move up and pick Portis or SA.

I definitely explored trading down a bit, but I didn't want to move back to anything later than 1.05. No good deals materialized on that front. I agree that I reached. Like I said in my previous post, if I really want a player on my team, then I'm generally willing to do what's necessary to acquire him. If these guys perform like I think they will, then they won't end up looking like reaches.

Oh and there is no way in hell you will be starting 3 WRs this year.  White will be one of your starters.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I hope you're right about that.

 

[Portis 26]

I actually believe that dynasty teams should be built around WRs, TEs, and QBs. In my opinion, RB is the least important position because RBs are the most injury-prone, have the shortest careers, and are the most likely to produce as rookies (meaning you can always add a good one from the draft if you have to).

I have some sympathy with this argument, but I think for it to work you need to be accumulating elite WRs or potentially elite ones. You have one in Fitzgerald but instead of drafting guys like Coles, Kennison or Bryant I would have gone for younger guys because with the possible exception of Bryant there's no upside there. Coles is now in decline because of a long-term injury, Kennison is surely a year or two from the end, and while Bryant has talent I don't like his situation in SF.You did have the right idea with drafting Jackson and Holmes. I just think Coles and Kennison are - to use your Reuben Droughns analogy - just good enough to get you beat.

 

[joffer]

Your first reaction is probably that I went too young. It certainly may have been a mistake to pass up Portis and Alexander for Bush,

pretty good read EBF, and I appreciate the write-up. It's helpful to read the opinions of other owners.However, I can't even fathom taking a guy like Bush over Portis or Alexander in an initial dynasty league. I know it's more of just a difference of opinion on dynasty strategy, but I just can't see passing on known quantities for a semi-unknown like Bush, age be damned. I understand your reasoning, we just differ on the approach. good luck.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

I think ADP is way overrated for dynasty. Good owners know it and move up ahead of it to get players they want. Bad owners have no knowledge of it, and just draft who they want. Unless you know every owner in your draft well, I think you just draft good players in the last round you feel confident that you can get them.

I know you love Big Ben, but I think you are too youth happy and wanting to be agaisnt the grain there. Brady is still only 28, which is very young by QB standards, and still should have 5 solid years ahead of him. He is a winner, will have a starting job, and has been extremely productive. Given that you can get a QB in the middle/end of round 1 almost every rookie draft, you would have plenty of time to groom a replacement.

I don't quite get the Kennison pick. He is too old to have much trade value, and you look to be a couple years from competing for the title. He is a solid player, but I don't see how he really fits your plan.

 

[EBF]

I know you love Big Ben, but I think you are too youth happy and wanting to be agaisnt the grain there. Brady is still only 28, which is very young by QB standards, and still should have 5 solid years ahead of him. He is a winner, will have a starting job, and has been extremely productive. Given that you can get a QB in the middle/end of round 1 almost every rookie draft, you would have plenty of time to groom a replacement.

It's just an issue of personal preference. I've heard all of the arguments regarding Roethlisberger, but I still have him ranked as a top dynasty QB. You just can't ignore the stats that he's put up in his career. I know his attempts/game has been very low, but I expect him to be a solid starter for me.

I don't quite get the Kennison pick. He is too old to have much trade value, and you look to be a couple years from competing for the title. He is a solid player, but I don't see how he really fits your plan.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I disagree that this team can't compete right away. I needed one more solid starter to round out my lineup. Kennison seemed like the best option.

 

[nightshift]

MY $.02

If the league only drafted and used waivers, okay, maybe. Vets make great trades, especially once the season begins and injuries take their toll. Can you trade rookies? Of course. But most want to stop the losing & start winning NOW. That means production from a current player. not one riding the pine.

You & I have discussed this before - BALANCE. The right mixture of vets who can win now and rookies who can win later (very hard to do, I admit). Nobody, not even you, can sit through a season of 2-10 and force themselves to like it by gnawing on the "Building the future dynasty" bone. Show me a team that has won a league title using your plan, EBF.

Talent is great but opportunity is greater. Yes you need talent, but let's face it, all of these players have talent and they are the elite of college ball. Some have more talent than others. Opportunity combined with good coaching, a good supporting cast, and killer work ethic is da bomb! The wrong opportunity will kill talent (Ryan Leaf anyone?).

The transition from college to pros is a very big jump for these kids. At 21, 22 - kids. Lots of pressure, external and internal, once they enter the NFL. Nothing like they have ever faced before, not even in national bowl games. There is no way we can (certain pro scouts & onwers maybe) measure or know the true character or personal fortitude of a player. How do we know what they're made of? Trial by fire - surviving the NFL and make good on the opportunity (there's that word again) they have been given. Pro experience counts big time in pro sports.

Good luck to ya. Maybe you'll prove me wrong. What I do know is the closer you get to acheiving the vet/rookie balance in a dynasty team, the more often you will make the playoffs. That's where it's at in FF!

 

[rabidfireweasel]

I don't quite get the Kennison pick. He is too old to have much trade value, and you look to be a couple years from competing for the title. He is a solid player, but I don't see how he really fits your plan.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I disagree that this team can't compete right away. I needed one more solid starter to round out my lineup. Kennison seemed like the best option.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

We will just disagree here. I don't think that with Ben, Bush and Lendale you are primed to win this year. You look mediocre to me, with Kennison maybe adding 1 win. I think you would have better served to be worse and draft higher next year.

 

[-OZ-]

8.10 - Matt Jones

9.03 - Chad Jackson

10.10 - Ben Troupe

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Love these picks for you.

My only criticism is, I think you ought to have drafted more RBs. With so many flex spots I think it made sense to load up on them rather than WRs.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I actually believe that dynasty teams should be built around WRs, TEs, and QBs. In my opinion, RB is the least important position because RBs are the most injury-prone, have the shortest careers, and are the most likely to produce as rookies (meaning you can always add a good one from the draft if you have to). Anyhow, I'm not in any way suggesting that I did perfectly, but I think this draft is a good example that illustrates my personal dynasty philosophy.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

RBs are pretty darned important, but I like your thinking. Proven, young WRs are golden.You'll have a hard time adding top RBs in a rookie draft, unless you have a top pick. But, with the flex lineups, you may not need to.

 

[-OZ-]

If the league only drafted and used waivers, okay, maybe. Vets make great trades, especially once the season begins and injuries take their toll. Can you trade rookies? Of course. But most want to stop the losing & start winning NOW. That means production from a current player. not one riding the pine.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

This obviously depends on your league, but in most of mine, youth is overvalued. Picks are much easier to trade than veterans.

 

[Turbo Punch]

You looked back at your 2003 draft and listed all the late round steals. Turned out to be a lot of young RBs & WRs. Did you also look at all the busts? Probably a lot of the same.

I'd like to see the busts from that 2003 draft for camparison. That's the only way I think anyone but you can see where your strategy is coming from and if it is sound.

 

[slayer666]

I don't think that with Ben, Bush and Lendale you are primed to win this year. You look mediocre to me.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Agreed.My first thought when I reviewed your roster was that you totally blew off 2006.

Good luck... I think you're going to need a lot of it.

 

[nightshift]

If the league only drafted and used waivers, okay, maybe. Vets make great trades, especially once the season begins and injuries take their toll. Can you trade rookies? Of course. But most want to stop the losing & start winning NOW. That means production from a current player. not one riding the pine.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

This obviously depends on your league, but in most of mine, youth is overvalued. Picks are much easier to trade than veterans.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Agreed, to a certain point. Easier to trade to the teams below .500 in the season, & are now thinking about next year but to those teams that maybe in contention, if they just had one more productive RB2. So what if he only plays this year (BETTIS)?GOLDEN. Just Win Baby!

But you are right - youth is always overvalued in dynasties. You could make that a rule!

 

[EBF]

RBs are pretty darned important, but I like your thinking. Proven, young WRs are golden.

Agreed. I had Fitz ranked as the top player available. He'll outscore all but the best RBs, and he's not nearly as big of an injury risk. Last year, in one of my dynasty leagues, I started the year with this lineup:

QB - Brett Favre

RB - Deuce McAllister

RB - Kevin Jones

RB/WR - Julius Jones

WR - Chad Johnson

WR - Anquan Boldin

TE - Alge Crumpler

My three starting RBs were all consensus top 10 dynasty backs entering the season. I finished 4-8.

WRs get hurt too, but I think the hype factor always causes the young RBs to be grossly overrated. This year's Jordan, Brown, and Cadillac is last year's McGahee, KJ, and JJ. In dynasty, you go with consistency. I'd gladly take Chad Johnson over LaMont Jordan or Ronnie Brown. That's why I've begun to build around WRs in all of my dynasty leagues. Far less volatility.

You might then wonder why I chose Bush. I picked him because I knew I needed one good RB and I like his value in a PPR league. Westbrook and Barber are two of the best backs in our scoring system. Bush is better than Westbrook with far less mileage than Barber.

You'll have a hard time adding top RBs in a rookie draft, unless you have a top pick.  But, with the flex lineups, you may not need to.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I don't think it will be all that difficult to acquire a decent RB in this league. It's important to note that we only have to start 1 RB, meaning there's not as much incentive to hoard them.

 

[Couch Potato]

Funk,

I ask your advice quite often in terms of evaluating talent....but I believe you did a very poor job of utilizing ADP (Average Draft Position) and trading down in this draft. 

As you noted in your intro....you received grief from your league mates about passing over vet talent and gambling on rookies & young players.  Several of the players you picked could have been selected a round or two later.  For example...Big Ben could have been had in round 6 or later.  You could have traded your round 5 pick.....picked up draft position in subsequent rounds and still selected Big Ben in the next round.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

If there is one signature player on this board in EBF posts, it is Roethlisberger. Though EBF very, very likely could have had him in round 6, I honestly beleive he would have been an unhappy man had someone else swooped in and taken big Ben ahead of him. In a dynasty league, where there is no 'next year' to get that player again, I have to believe EBF paid the premium because he felt so strongly about this player and wanted to be certain he got him. No one would have blinked had he taken a top-3 QB in the round he took Roethlisberger, and in EBF's eyes this QB has that kind of future ahead of him. So, he made sure he got him. Did I sum it up just about right EBF?

 

[-OZ-]

If there is one signature player on this board in EBF posts, it is Roethlisberger.  Though EBF very, very likely could have had him in round 6, I honestly beleive he would have been an unhappy man had someone else swooped in and taken big Ben ahead of him.  In a dynasty league, where there is no 'next year' to get that player again, I have to believe EBF paid the premium because he felt so strongly about this player and wanted to be certain he got him.  No one would have blinked had he taken a top-3 QB in the round he took Roethlisberger, and in EBF's eyes this QB has that kind of future ahead of him.  So, he made sure he got him. 

Did I sum it up just about right EBF?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'm not EBF, but we pretty much see eye to eye on Big Ben. Your post works for me.

 

[fruity pebbles]

I like the strategy as long as you can take losing the first year. I actually like hoarding youth in the initial draft and somewhat sucking the first year and getting a high rookie pick the next year. In all the dynasties I've played, youth is king and young guys with potential hold their value pretty well. Older players are like new cars. They lose 20% of their value as soon as you draft them and continue losing value no matter how they perform.

 

[EBF]

Funk,

I ask your advice quite often in terms of evaluating talent....but I believe you did a very poor job of utilizing ADP (Average Draft Position) and trading down in this draft. 

As you noted in your intro....you received grief from your league mates about passing over vet talent and gambling on rookies & young players.  Several of the players you picked could have been selected a round or two later.  For example...Big Ben could have been had in round 6 or later.  You could have traded your round 5 pick.....picked up draft position in subsequent rounds and still selected Big Ben in the next round.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

If there is one signature player on this board in EBF posts, it is Roethlisberger. Though EBF very, very likely could have had him in round 6, I honestly beleive he would have been an unhappy man had someone else swooped in and taken big Ben ahead of him. In a dynasty league, where there is no 'next year' to get that player again, I have to believe EBF paid the premium because he felt so strongly about this player and wanted to be certain he got him. No one would have blinked had he taken a top-3 QB in the round he took Roethlisberger, and in EBF's eyes this QB has that kind of future ahead of him. So, he made sure he got him. Did I sum it up just about right EBF?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yea, pretty much.Roethlisberger is one of my favorite dynasty players. I think the concerns about Pittsburgh's system are somewhat valid, but I just can't ignore what this guy has done on the field. It is pretty much unheard of for a rookie to come in and immediately start placing among the league leaders in QB rating, yards/attempt, and some of the other passing categories that I look at. This is a very, very special QB. The system may hold him back from reaching Manning status, but I think he's going to be a solid QB for a long time with the potential to be elite.

It's one of those "beauty is in the eye of the beholder" situations. A lot of people see Roethlisberger as an Aikman type. I see him more as a Manning type who simply needs a few more chances to throw.

 

[EBF]

I don't think that with Ben, Bush and Lendale you are primed to win this year. You look mediocre to me.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Agreed.My first thought when I reviewed your roster was that you totally blew off 2006.

Good luck... I think you're going to need a lot of it.



<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I can definitely see why you'd reach that conclusion, but I'll make a few quick points in support of myself:- I have plenty of veteran talent at WR. Laveranues Coles, Antonio Bryant, Larry Fitzgerald, and Eddie Kennison have all posted 1,000 yard seasons in the past. Depending on how things work out in Jacksonville, either Matt Jones or Reggie Williams could join that group next year.

- Yea, I'm young at RB, but RB is the one position where rookies can generally come in and make an immediate impact. Also, we only need to start one RB, so it's not the end of the world if I only get moderate production out of this unit.

- I definitely wanted a veteran backup at QB. I was hoping to land the Leinart/Warner combo, but both of those guys were gone before I was ready to take them. Roethlisberger may not seem like an ideal QB1 to most people, but I think he'll at worst be serviceable.

- You never know what will happen. In that 2003 dynasty draft, I picked up Anquan Boldin at 20.09, and I got Rudi Johnson and Domanick Davis off waivers early in the season. That's three quality starters for almost nothing. You obviously can't count on that sort of thing happening, but crazy things happen each season. You should never rule out someone like Lundy, Fargas, or Cobbs making an impact.

 

[The Reverend]

I know you love Big Ben, but I think you are too youth happy and wanting to be agaisnt the grain there. Brady is still only 28, which is very young by QB standards, and still should have 5 solid years ahead of him. He is a winner, will have a starting job, and has been extremely productive. Given that you can get a QB in the middle/end of round 1 almost every rookie draft, you would have plenty of time to groom a replacement.

It's just an issue of personal preference. I've heard all of the arguments regarding Roethlisberger, but I still have him ranked as a top dynasty QB. You just can't ignore the stats that he's put up in his career. I know his attempts/game has been very low, but I expect him to be a solid starter for me.

I don't quite get the Kennison pick. He is too old to have much trade value, and you look to be a couple years from competing for the title. He is a solid player, but I don't see how he really fits your plan.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I disagree that this team can't compete right away. I needed one more solid starter to round out my lineup. Kennison seemed like the best option.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

EB Funk,Great thread. Great draft. We're converting one of our leagues from a re-dreaft to a dynasty, and I would love to come away with this team. I have no doubt that you will be competitive now/this year and in the future--especially when you build on this team. No way you were too youth happy. Youth is the way of the NFL. I hope to do so well this upcoming draft...

Rev

P.S. Edit to add: Minimalist WR Theory.

 

[Portis 26]

Laveranues Coles, Antonio Bryant, Larry Fitzgerald, and Eddie Kennison

With the exception of Fitz, this is not a league championship winning group.

 

[PatsWillWin]

First off, here's my draft:

7.03 - Laveranues Coles

7.09 - Antonio Bryant

11.03 - Eddie Kennison

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

This picks strike me as contradicting the entire strategy you laid out. You could argue that Coles is very talented, but Bryant is mediocre at best, and Kennison is solid, but has hit his ceiling in production and seems to be a win-right-now guy when the rest of your team is not.

 

[EBF]

First off, here's my draft:

7.03 - Laveranues Coles

7.09 - Antonio Bryant

11.03 - Eddie Kennison

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

This picks strike me as contradicting the entire strategy you laid out. You could argue that Coles is very talented, but Bryant is mediocre at best, and Kennison is solid, but has hit his ceiling in production and seems to be a win-right-now guy when the rest of your team is not.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You might be right.I wouldn't say Bryant is mediocre. He's been productive since his rookie year and has already posted a 1,000 yard season. Mike Nolan views him as a #1 WR. He's only 25, so there's still plenty of room to develop and improve.

You're right about Kennison. He doesn't fit my team's image, but I do think it's important to compete each season and I didn't want to be completely devoid of proven talent.

Also, when you talk about my team not being in shape to win right now, you can't rule out the "where did that come from?" factor. Like I said in a previous post, strange things happen in the NFL. Maybe LenDale White will lead the league in rushing. Maybe Cedric Cobbs will be the starter in Denver. Maybe LaMont Jordan will tear his ACL in training camp, allowing Justin Fargas to take the job.

These are all very unlikely and I'm not counting on any of them, but my point is that you can't rule out the possibility of competing immediately. Maybe the Kennison pick would've been better spent on someone like Matt Schaub or Maurice Drew, but I felt like it was the right move.

 

[EBF]

EB Funk,

Great thread.  Great draft.  We're converting one of our leagues from a re-dreaft to a dynasty, and I would love to come away with this team.  I have no doubt that you will be competitive now/this year and in the future--especially when you build on this team.  No way you were too youth happy.  Youth is the way of the NFL.  I hope to do so well this upcoming draft...

Rev

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Thanks.

 

[EBF]

You looked back at your 2003 draft and listed all the late round steals.  Turned out to be a lot of young RBs & WRs.    Did you also look at all the busts?  Probably a lot of the same.

I'd like to see the busts from that 2003 draft for camparison.  That's the only way I think anyone but you can see where your strategy is coming from and if it is sound.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'm sure you're right. Maybe I picked the wrong young guys. Maybe Mark Bradley, Vincent Jackson, and Ryan Moats were the guys to get. There's always a risk of that, but I think if you throw enough darts at the board then you're going to hit a few bullseyes. Back in that 2003 draft, I took a lot of rookies and unproven players after round ten. I took Santana Moss, Tony Hollings, Drew Bennett, David Carr, Taylor Jacobs, Tyrone Calico, Teyo Johnson, Justin Fargas, Jake Delhomme, Josh McCown, Anquan Boldin, Avon Cobourne, and a few other guys. A lot of them flopped. But, as you can see, I also managed to land a few premier players.

I never expect all of my late picks to pan out. They don't have to. If I've done my job in the early rounds, I don't need all of my projects to pan out. They're just icing on the cake. And even though they have a fairly high fail rate, I'd argue that they still make better picks than most of the veterans left on the board in the mid-late rounds.

 

[cstu]

If there is one signature player on this board in EBF posts, it is Roethlisberger.  Though EBF very, very likely could have had him in round 6, I honestly beleive he would have been an unhappy man had someone else swooped in and taken big Ben ahead of him.  In a dynasty league, where there is no 'next year' to get that player again, I have to believe EBF paid the premium because he felt so strongly about this player and wanted to be certain he got him.  No one would have blinked had he taken a top-3 QB in the round he took Roethlisberger, and in EBF's eyes this QB has that kind of future ahead of him.  So, he made sure he got him. 

Did I sum it up just about right EBF?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'm not EBF, but we pretty much see eye to eye on Big Ben. Your post works for me.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

This is all I need to know to be convinced Ben is worth a 6th round pick:1) He is one of the best QB's in football by age 24

2) On a team that ranked dead last in pass attempts the last two years and has passed much more in the past.

3) Drafted a quality #2 WR

4) Has a top young TE

 

[coolnerd]

Since I was in the same draft as EBF I want make a couple of points without hijacking it.

Big Ben would not have made another round. At worse, I would have drafted him at the late turn 5.11/6.02 so not trading down was the right move. I wanted a couple of QBs who look to start for quite awhile. Because of the run, I ended up with Brees, Simms and year or two of Trent Green.

Ironically, our philosophy does not vary as much as the results seem to indicate. I wished to build my team around WRs. I felt I could do so w/o much trading. I drafted Steve Smith and Chad Johnson. Barring injury, I believe that I have a solid pair to build around for the next five or so years. Outside of that I have two or three old and boring WRs (Moulds,Glenn) , and a couple 3/4 year guys (Gaffney/Givens) who have shown some production, and are in situations where they could see a spike in that production as we often see from some "surprise" veteran.

I also think that RB is a position where even in a dynasty you can't think more than 2 or 3 years out. Knowing that I had the two WRs to build around I took calculated chances. Duece, while probably not going back to "stud" status, assuming health he has a chance to be in the 10-15 overall range and may get another year or two out of his body because of Bush. Dunn I targeted to do his normal outperforming draft position bit. Benson, will get a chance to start in 2006 or 2007. Dayne, if he gives me 1 or 2 years of Mike Anderson 2005, it will be worth it.

My point is that our basic philosophy was not so different, but even sharing some of the same thoughts, our execution varied greatly. It will fun to see if one or the other proves to be better over the long haul.

 

[bjlmonster]

Interesting topic! I will give an opposite opinion for the sake of argument.

I drafted my first ever dynasty last year (had best overall record and lost in the superbowl). My draft went this way.

D. McAllister 1.07

M. Harrison 2.06

T. Barber 3.07

J. Horn 4.06

C. Palmer 5.07

T. Heap 6.06

D. Driver 7.07

T.J. Houshmanzadah 8.06

L. Toefield 9.07

B. Roethlisberger 10.06

M. Moore 11.07

B. Jacobs 12.06

A. Randle El 13.07

D. Akers 14.06

M. Pittman 15.07

Jags D 16.06

E. Kinney 18.06

E. Parker 21.07

A. Walter 22.06

N. Rakers FA

Hawks D FA

K. Washington FA

As you see, I drafted for NOW and it payed off with a runner up finish in the superbowl.

I wanted to go younger, but I could not pass up the production that Harrison, Barber, Horn, & Heap had PROVEN to put up. Yes Horn flopped last year and Deuce was hurt (and now has Bush) , but all 4 of these guys will still be productive for a few years to come.

I did get my youth. I reached for Palmer (Just like you did for Ben), Driver, Houshy, & Akers as these guys are guys I really wanted and they have all worked out.

My real mistake was trying to reach for RB depth and take as you say less talented athletes in Toefield & Moore, but all young kids were gone at this point. :X

You may say that soon Tiki will get old, Bush will take over, Harrison will be gone, Heap will fade away, and so will my chances at a title. But, in that time I may have played in 2-3 more superbowls and still had an opportunity to replace my "old guys" with someone new through trades, free agency, and the rookie draft.

I am not saying that your draft was wrong or bad, but just trying to give a counter point for discussion.

 

[Kleck.]

If your strategy was to get 1.01 in next year's rookie draft, I think you nailed it. I think you focused too hard on finding "down the road" mid and late round steals that you overlooked the possibility that 75% of this team could easily bust or continue to bust.

I don't mean to be rude and just want to be honest here, but this team looks horrible to me. There is very little proven talent and even if you land a few of those mid and late round steals, this team will need a lot of work (trades, waiver wire) to be a contender.

 

[EBF]

If your strategy was to get 1.01 in next year's rookie draft, I think you nailed it.  I think you focused too hard on finding "down the road" mid and late round steals that you overlooked the possibility that 75% of this team could easily bust or continue to bust.

I don't mean to be rude and just want to be honest here, but this team looks horrible to me.  There is very little proven talent and even if you land a few of those mid and late round steals, this team will need a lot of work (trades, waiver wire) to be a contender.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Like I said, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. I think I've got solid guys at QB1, RB1, WR1, and TE1. That leaves three flex spots, and plenty of warm bodies to fill them.

 

[EBF]

Interesting topic! I will give an opposite opinion for the sake of argument.

I drafted my first ever dynasty last year (had best overall record and lost in the superbowl). My draft went this way.

D. McAllister 1.07

M. Harrison 2.06

T. Barber 3.07

J. Horn 4.06

C. Palmer 5.07

T. Heap 6.06

D. Driver 7.07

T.J. Houshmanzadah 8.06

L. Toefield 9.07

B. Roethlisberger 10.06

M. Moore 11.07

B. Jacobs 12.06

A. Randle El 13.07

D. Akers 14.06

M. Pittman 15.07

Jags D 16.06

E. Kinney 18.06

E. Parker 21.07

A. Walter 22.06

N. Rakers FA

Hawks D FA

K. Washington FA

As you see, I drafted for NOW and it payed off with a runner up finish in the superbowl.

I wanted to go younger, but I could not pass up the production that Harrison, Barber, Horn, & Heap had PROVEN to put up. Yes Horn flopped last year    and Deuce was hurt (and now has Bush)  , but all 4 of these guys will still be productive for a few years to come.

I did get my youth. I reached for Palmer (Just like you did for Ben), Driver, Houshy, & Akers as these guys are guys I really wanted and they have all worked out. 

My real mistake was trying to reach for RB depth and take as you say less talented athletes in Toefield & Moore, but all young kids were gone at this point.  :X

You may say that soon Tiki will get old, Bush will take over, Harrison will be gone, Heap will fade away, and so will my chances at a title. But, in that time I may have played in 2-3 more superbowls and still had an opportunity to replace my "old guys" with someone new through trades, free agency, and the rookie draft.

I am not saying that your draft was wrong or bad, but just trying to give a counter point for discussion.



<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That strategy definitely has its merits. You can really pick up some discount talent if you're willing to draft a lot of old guys. The downside is that if they flop, then you're really in a bad place. I've seen a lot of teams bet everything on one season, only to end up mired in mediocrity.

To be fair, I've also seen the same thing happen to a lot of teams who draft nothing but youth.

The key with both strategies is to draft good players. If you draft nothing but good players, then you're going to have a good team. That's the fundamental idea behind my strategy.

 

[bjlmonster]

If your strategy was to get 1.01 in next year's rookie draft, I think you nailed it.  I think you focused too hard on finding "down the road" mid and late round steals that you overlooked the possibility that 75% of this team could easily bust or continue to bust.

I don't mean to be rude and just want to be honest here, but this team looks horrible to me.  There is very little proven talent and even if you land a few of those mid and late round steals, this team will need a lot of work (trades, waiver wire) to be a contender.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Like I said, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. I think I've got solid guys at QB1, RB1, WR1, and TE1. That leaves three flex spots, and plenty of warm bodies to fill them.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I had solid guys there as well RB1 McAllister (hurt), WR1 Harrison (hurt in my SB), WR2 Horn (sucked), TE1 Heap (Hurt first half). Depth is very important in FF

 

[EBF]

If your strategy was to get 1.01 in next year's rookie draft, I think you nailed it.  I think you focused too hard on finding "down the road" mid and late round steals that you overlooked the possibility that 75% of this team could easily bust or continue to bust.

I don't mean to be rude and just want to be honest here, but this team looks horrible to me.  There is very little proven talent and even if you land a few of those mid and late round steals, this team will need a lot of work (trades, waiver wire) to be a contender.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Like I said, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. I think I've got solid guys at QB1, RB1, WR1, and TE1. That leaves three flex spots, and plenty of warm bodies to fill them.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I had solid guys there as well RB1 McAllister (hurt), WR1 Harrison (hurt in my SB), WR2 Horn (sucked), TE1 Heap (Hurt first half). Depth is very important in FF
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You're absolutely right. My one regret in this league is not getting a better backup QB. That said, you can always trade for veteran help if the need arises. A guy like Keyshawn, Dunn, or Favre can be had for pretty cheap.

 

[The Reverend]

Interesting topic! I will give an opposite opinion for the sake of argument.

I drafted my first ever dynasty last year (had best overall record and lost in the superbowl). My draft went this way.

D. McAllister 1.07

M. Harrison 2.06

T. Barber 3.07

J. Horn 4.06

C. Palmer 5.07

T. Heap 6.06

D. Driver 7.07

T.J. Houshmanzadah 8.06

L. Toefield 9.07

B. Roethlisberger 10.06

M. Moore 11.07

B. Jacobs 12.06

A. Randle El 13.07

D. Akers 14.06

M. Pittman 15.07

Jags D 16.06

E. Kinney 18.06

E. Parker 21.07

A. Walter 22.06

N. Rakers FA

Hawks D FA

K. Washington FA

As you see, I drafted for NOW and it payed off with a runner up finish in the superbowl.

I wanted to go younger, but I could not pass up the production that Harrison, Barber, Horn, & Heap had PROVEN to put up. Yes Horn flopped last year    and Deuce was hurt (and now has Bush)  , but all 4 of these guys will still be productive for a few years to come.

I did get my youth. I reached for Palmer (Just like you did for Ben), Driver, Houshy, & Akers as these guys are guys I really wanted and they have all worked out. 

My real mistake was trying to reach for RB depth and take as you say less talented athletes in Toefield & Moore, but all young kids were gone at this point.  :X

You may say that soon Tiki will get old, Bush will take over, Harrison will be gone, Heap will fade away, and so will my chances at a title. But, in that time I may have played in 2-3 more superbowls and still had an opportunity to replace my "old guys" with someone new through trades, free agency, and the rookie draft.

I am not saying that your draft was wrong or bad, but just trying to give a counter point for discussion.



<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That strategy definitely has its merits. You can really pick up some discount talent if you're willing to draft a lot of old guys. The downside is that if they flop, then you're really in a bad place. I've seen a lot of teams bet everything on one season, only to end up mired in mediocrity.

To be fair, I've also seen the same thing happen to a lot of teams who draft nothing but youth.

The key with both strategies is to draft good players. If you draft nothing but good players, then you're going to have a good team. That's the fundamental idea behind my strategy.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Exactly. This is what I saw in Funk's draft, and what I hope to do in my own. He drafted as NFL teams do: draft best players (note I left out "best player 'available'", which is redundant).

 

[cstu]

If your strategy was to get 1.01 in next year's rookie draft, I think you nailed it.  I think you focused too hard on finding "down the road" mid and late round steals that you overlooked the possibility that 75% of this team could easily bust or continue to bust.

I don't mean to be rude and just want to be honest here, but this team looks horrible to me.  There is very little proven talent and even if you land a few of those mid and late round steals, this team will need a lot of work (trades, waiver wire) to be a contender.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Like I said, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. I think I've got solid guys at QB1, RB1, WR1, and TE1. That leaves three flex spots, and plenty of warm bodies to fill them.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I had solid guys there as well RB1 McAllister (hurt), WR1 Harrison (hurt in my SB), WR2 Horn (sucked), TE1 Heap (Hurt first half). Depth is very important in FF
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You're absolutely right. My one regret in this league is not getting a better backup QB. That said, you can always trade for veteran help if the need arises. A guy like Keyshawn, Dunn, or Favre can be had for pretty cheap.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I don't find much fault in your draft other than I'd have drafted Leftwich or Rivers instead of Chad Jackson and Terry Glenn over Kennison.

 

[THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA]

I guess that brings me to my conclusion.

Make every pick count - I firmly believe that in a dynasty draft, you should pay minimal attention to lineup concerns and short term potential. I think you should instead focus on drafting players who have a chance to be long term contributors.

In the early rounds, this means selecting elite freakish talents (Shockey, Bush, Fitzgerald, Roethlisberger). As the draft moves into the later rounds, this means drafting untested young players with good draft pedigrees. They won't all pan out, but they offer a lot more value potential than the veteran scrubs who will be chosen in the same range.

Funny, as im using this same stargedy myself right now in my dynasty ppr draft, while guys giving me flack for passing on Ruben/Foster/Dunn for Matt Jones, i took what i felt was the BDPA (BEST DYNASTY PLAYER AVAILABLE)I love my talent so far in my 1st 9 picks:



Fitz

Westy (in a ppr he's nice and i need someone to score something)

Roy Williams (future BEAST!)

L.Maroney (Portis II)

L.White (Young Bettis Clone)

Matt Jones (great white hype...I think he will be a big time td guy...a red zone beast!!)

Chad Jackson (im sold....i also like him having a shot in NE with a pro bowl qb who regularly throws for 4000+yrds.)

Vernon Davis (again someone i think that will have a bigtime impact on the nfl)

M.Vick (i always liked Vick although he is injury prone)

instead of your normal C.Martin's and A.Green's i will pass on them for nice youngsters like Calhoun and other top young rb's. I gotta hope for either White or Maroney to get me something for my rb2 this year though, cause i still wanna compete this year as well in future years....

I will also note i looking at dynasty drafting like this.....you can impact it yourself....HOW start taking all the major upside guys, M.Jones/R.Brown/C.Perry/MBIII/V.Davis and other young top talent and it will cause others to jump for whats left in terms of top young dynasty talent.

I also look at NFL staying power....do i think i should draft a D.Rhodes (who been horrible for a few years IMO with his slow-###) over a young potential stud just because i need a rb and he do have a chance to produce THIS YEAR after that he will probaly go back to being what he was before. I rather take a guy with more upside and wait and draft a young runner that will be given a chance to develope.

anyways....i was diggin and this is the exact way i draft.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=254378

 

[EBF]

I think it's a good system. I think you have an awful lot of unproven players on your roster, but you've certainly managed to avoid drafting any surefire scrubs or overrated flavors of the year.

A few of your high upside types will likely bust and you may have to wait a year or two for returns, but you've got a good foundation there. The key now is to find a few gems in the later rounds.

 

[THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA]

I agree anyone may bust but when having a dynasty team i look at there dynasty value as well...Ive seen Matt Jones get traded alot before for a owner in love with him....as with other hearlded youngsters....

Therefore i may not always sit on them if the right deal comes along but i bet if i took a D.Foster or RUben i can only expect to get so much as more than likely they wont be starters in the NFL that long, i guarantee that but they dont have the ringing endorsements of like a say a Portis or R.Brown and other back that seem to have some sort of staying power right now. Ive seen those kinda rb's gets traded for peanuts really in dynasty.

Id give you and instance.

On my DFFL team below, I have Portis R.Bush L.White C.Perry B.Calhoun V.Morency L.Betts and C.Cobb. Right now i can get a Ruben Droughans or C.Brown type for a C.Perry deal. zI rather have a guys with Stud potential than just a stop gap starter.

But thats the way i view things.