[DYNASTY] Is Jonathan Stewart a buy low? (1 Viewer)

[JamesTheScot]

Was Jonathan Stewart a great "buy low"? I guess that depends entirely on how low you bought.

And when you bought. Those in Dynasty leagues who rostered him when this thread started in April 2013 (or several years before based on the OP's constant pimping) have not had a particularly good return on their investment - unless they actually made it to their 2014 playoffs and then started him (Stewart owners in most of my leagues were on the sidelines starting Week 14).

It looks like 2015 will be different, however we have been down this road of unfulfilled promise/potential before. Problem now is that Stewart will be 28 in March and not that many RBs come to mind that have had a breakout year at that age or beyond. I own him in one league, so I am hoping that he does finally succeed.

First, you already missed his breakout. It was a few years ago. He isn't some guy that has been crap his whole career and now suddenly explodes out of nowhere.

Second, how many RB's do you know that have an injury history like Stewart, but have had the solid production history when leaned upon, and are still playing at 28? I can't think of any.

But that's not an indictment. It's just recognition that the sample size is so small so as to have no predictive value. Stewart is in a fairly unique situation.

You can't say that it doesn't happen and thus won't, because he shouldn't really be here doing what he's doing right now either. So when the thing that should not be according to conventional wisdom is shown to exist...you need to adjust your expectations to account for that new possibility.

Recognizing the outlier for what it is can be extremely profitable. Not because it helps you predict the future (to find the next J.Stewart), but because you can buy THIS particular J.Stewart for cheap. Others don't recognize why he's an outlier and therefore underestimate the odds that he absolutely can buck the trends.

He's a talented guy held back by injury and situation. 2015 could very well be the year where both of those things correct themselves. I've been a huge De Angelo Williams fan over his career, but he's done. It would be lunacy at this point to to give Williams a sizable share of the carries in 2015. The health concerns are there for Stewart, obviously. But for the buying price, you can probably afford to use him as a part time starter given the production you can get from him when healthy.

 

[JamesTheScot]

Stewart has had 230 touches or more once in his career, 5 years ago. Even this year, with everything that could possibly go right for him, he didn't approach that number.

Everything went right for him? WTF are you talking about?

You know he was injured part of the season, right? Missed part of one game and then the next 3. You know he still split carries with DeAngelo Williams in 5 games, right?

That's like saying "But other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?"

He had 7 games where he was "the guy", meaning he was healthy enough to play and Williams was not. He went 123/567/2 on the ground and 10/82/1 in the air. That's 19 touches for almost 92.7 yards and 0.43 TD's per game.

IF he stays healthy, and IF Williams isn't there in 2015, he has every opportunity to put up good season totals. And if he isn't healthy all season, he still has every opportunity to put up good numbers when he is.

And even if Williams stays on, I think there will be a changing of the guard. Williams and Stewart had the same number of total touches in games in which they both played. With the team's recognition of what Stewart has done this season as the lead back and with DeAngelo being even older next season, I think the touches have to start to slant in Stewart's favor next season.

But by all means, keep pushing his price down. I won my main league this year with him in my lineup once DeAngelo was injured. He didn't have a great week 15, but weeks 14 and 16 were sweet.

 

[jurb26]

Another person ignoring Tolbert.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

We're not ignoring Tolbert. We're looking at what actually happened when Stewart took over.

 

[jurb26]

We're not ignoring Tolbert. We're looking at what actually happened when Stewart took over.

Which did t address anything I said.

 

[cstu]

Average, eh?

 

[Adam Harstad]

Setting discussion of Stewart's talent, health, or future situation aside for a moment...

DeAngelo Williams has missed the fantasy playoffs in three of the past seven seasons. From weeks 13-16 of those three seasons, Stewart has rushed for 86/464/3 (5.4 ypc), 84/433/1 (5.2 ypc), and 78/435/1 (5.6 ypc). He ranked as RB4, RB13, and RB9 during those playoff runs in standard, RB5, RB17, and RB10 in PPR. He's been a championship-decider.

Not really what people were hoping from him when they drafted him in the top 3 of that stacked 2008 rookie class, but that's still some quality value. Especially for the guys who managed to get him at a steep discount in recent seasons. In the FBGs staff dynasty league, he was drafted by Sigmund Bloom (huge pro-Stewart fan) in last year's startup. Sig dropped him earlier this year, and he was immediately snatched up by Jeff Tefertiller (another huge pro-Stewart fan). Then Tefertiller dropped him a few weeks later and I got him for free. He's already returned my investment of absolutely nothing several times over. Was Jonathan Stewart a great "buy low"? I guess that depends entirely on how low you bought.

Not exactly good advertising for this site.

Any dynasty expert who has never done something stupid is not to be trusted, because he's lying to you about his record.

Getting Stewart for free was a nice find for me, but it's probably at best a wash for the fact that I dropped C.J. Anderson early this year when Hillman was putting up some good games. Such is life.

 

[The Man With No Name]

Setting discussion of Stewart's talent, health, or future situation aside for a moment...

DeAngelo Williams has missed the fantasy playoffs in three of the past seven seasons. From weeks 13-16 of those three seasons, Stewart has rushed for 86/464/3 (5.4 ypc), 84/433/1 (5.2 ypc), and 78/435/1 (5.6 ypc). He ranked as RB4, RB13, and RB9 during those playoff runs in standard, RB5, RB17, and RB10 in PPR. He's been a championship-decider.

Not really what people were hoping from him when they drafted him in the top 3 of that stacked 2008 rookie class, but that's still some quality value. Especially for the guys who managed to get him at a steep discount in recent seasons. In the FBGs staff dynasty league, he was drafted by Sigmund Bloom (huge pro-Stewart fan) in last year's startup. Sig dropped him earlier this year, and he was immediately snatched up by Jeff Tefertiller (another huge pro-Stewart fan). Then Tefertiller dropped him a few weeks later and I got him for free. He's already returned my investment of absolutely nothing several times over. Was Jonathan Stewart a great "buy low"? I guess that depends entirely on how low you bought.

Not exactly good advertising for this site.

Any dynasty expert who has never done something stupid is not to be trusted, because he's lying to you about his record.

Getting Stewart for free was a nice find for me, but it's probably at best a wash for the fact that I dropped C.J. Anderson early this year when Hillman was putting up some good games. Such is life.

Depends on type of league and roster size how owners handle a players situation.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Was Jonathan Stewart a great "buy low"? I guess that depends entirely on how low you bought.

And when you bought. Those in Dynasty leagues who rostered him when this thread started in April 2013 (or several years before based on the OP's constant pimping) have not had a particularly good return on their investment - unless they actually made it to their 2014 playoffs and then started him (Stewart owners in most of my leagues were on the sidelines starting Week 14).

It looks like 2015 will be different, however we have been down this road of unfulfilled promise/potential before. Problem now is that Stewart will be 28 in March and not that many RBs come to mind that have had a breakout year at that age or beyond. I own him in one league, so I am hoping that he does finally succeed.

Huh? Just off the top of my head I can come up with Justin Forsett, Joique Bell, Rashad Jennings, Fred Jackson, Reggie Bush, Michael Turner, and Darren Sproles as late-career breakouts in recent years. Were they all 28 exactly? I don't know, but I do know they'd all been in the league, (or in Joique's and FJax's case, trying to get into the league), for a long time before they finally blew up. I don't think it's that uncommon of an occurrence, and it's certainly shaping up as if Stewart's situation will be quite favorable next season for him to be the next name on that list.

Not saying it's a lock or anything, but I don't think past history suggests it would be a big stretch.

 

[BassNBrew]

Average, eh?

Just slightly behind HOFer Fozzy.

 

[chad in Indy]

Maybe no Williams next year, but still gotta deal w Tolbert ....and apparently Whittaker

 

[EBF]

Washed up bust. Why isn't Tolbert getting the carries?

 

[jurb26]

Washed up bust. Why isn't Tolbert getting the carries?

Cause he's catching TDs.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Yeah... they'd never make Stewart the main guy. Other than the 104 touches in the last five games.

 

[The Man With No Name]

Yeah... they'd never make Stewart the main guy. Other than the 104 touches in the last five games.

He's no good. Never any good. Has been. Never will be. Washed up, etc.

 

[az_prof]

124 yards and a TD so far today against AZ. Stewart continuing to get it done.

 

[humpback]

Setting discussion of Stewart's talent, health, or future situation aside for a moment...

DeAngelo Williams has missed the fantasy playoffs in three of the past seven seasons. From weeks 13-16 of those three seasons, Stewart has rushed for 86/464/3 (5.4 ypc), 84/433/1 (5.2 ypc), and 78/435/1 (5.6 ypc). He ranked as RB4, RB13, and RB9 during those playoff runs in standard, RB5, RB17, and RB10 in PPR. He's been a championship-decider.

Not really what people were hoping from him when they drafted him in the top 3 of that stacked 2008 rookie class, but that's still some quality value. Especially for the guys who managed to get him at a steep discount in recent seasons. In the FBGs staff dynasty league, he was drafted by Sigmund Bloom (huge pro-Stewart fan) in last year's startup. Sig dropped him earlier this year, and he was immediately snatched up by Jeff Tefertiller (another huge pro-Stewart fan). Then Tefertiller dropped him a few weeks later and I got him for free. He's already returned my investment of absolutely nothing several times over. Was Jonathan Stewart a great "buy low"? I guess that depends entirely on how low you bought.

Not exactly good advertising for this site.

Any dynasty expert who has never done something stupid is not to be trusted, because he's lying to you about his record.

Getting Stewart for free was a nice find for me, but it's probably at best a wash for the fact that I dropped C.J. Anderson early this year when Hillman was putting up some good games. Such is life.

This isn't helping things.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Title needs to be changed: "[DYNASTY] Can We Sell Jonathan Stewart High?"

 

[BassNBrew]

Stewy did look good today. Running with authority. I won't hold my breath for next year.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I've held this guy for years and years and years now (in a contract league where it's harder to hold onto guys). I'm getting mildly excited about him headed into next year. I assume that means he'll pull a hammy or tweak an ankle in training camp and it will linger all season long.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Jonathan Stewart rushed 13 times for 70 yards and caught one pass for four yards in Saturday's Divisional Round loss at Seattle.

Stewart once again ripped through tackles, gaining yards that simply aren't there. It was a crime that he lost four touches to DeAngelo Williams and three to Mike Tolbert. Regardless of Carolina's stubbornness, Stewart proved to the football world he has recaptured the early-career form that made him one of the league's most exciting young backs. He finished with 175-809-3 (4.62 YPC) in the regular season, turning into a borderline fantasy RB1 anytime DeAngelo sat. Most importantly, the oft-injured Stewart avoided any major ailments. If Carolina knows what's good for them, they'll saddle up Stewart as a 28-year-old true feature back in 2015. Few runners were more impressive this season.

Jan 11 - 12:28 AM

 

[jurb26]

Rotoworld:

Jonathan Stewart rushed 13 times for 70 yards and caught one pass for four yards in Saturday's Divisional Round loss at Seattle.Stewart once again ripped through tackles, gaining yards that simply aren't there. It was a crime that he lost four touches to DeAngelo Williams and three to Mike Tolbert. Regardless of Carolina's stubbornness, Stewart proved to the football world he has recaptured the early-career form that made him one of the league's most exciting young backs. He finished with 175-809-3 (4.62 YPC) in the regular season, turning into a borderline fantasy RB1 anytime DeAngelo sat. Most importantly, the oft-injured Stewart avoided any major ailments. If Carolina knows what's good for them, they'll saddle up Stewart as a 28-year-old true feature back in 2015. Few runners were more impressive this season.

Jan 11 - 12:28 AM

What he proved is he danced too much and missed several good cut opportunities that could have resulted in significantly more yardage.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Rotoworld obviously isn't familiar with Up is Down World [SIZE=14.2857141494751px]here in the JStew thread [/SIZE]-- where 5.4 per pop against Seattle proves he's a bum.

 

[jurb26]

Rotoworld obviously isn't familiar with Up is Down World here in the JStew thread -- where 5.4 per pop against Seattle proves he's a bum.

Rotoworld isn't aware of a lot of things which is why people regularly laugh and scoff at their "interpretations."Nobody said he was a bum.

 

[Archer]

Anyone that can't acknowledge Stewart looked great over the last month of the season really doesn't know or understand football. And keep in mind its not like teams were having to respect the passing game. Can you imagine what he'd do in Green Bay for example?

 

[ghostguy123]

Anyone that can't acknowledge Stewart looked great over the last month of the season really doesn't know or understand football. And keep in mind its not like teams were having to respect the passing game. Can you imagine what he'd do in Green Bay for example?

He would get hurt??

Major sell "high" for me, if you can get any decent value.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

The guy has always been a talented player. He's just been hurt for the majority of his career. I'm inclined to think this is more of a sell high window if you can get a decent return.

I think it's likely the Panthers will add a RB to replace DeAngelo Williams. There's a dozen in the draft that could help them, and it's a nice group in UFA as well.

 

[msommer]

The guy has always been a talented player. He's just been hurt for the majority of his career. I'm inclined to think this is more of a sell high window if you can get a decent return.

I think it's likely the Panthers will add a RB to replace DeAngelo Williams. There's a dozen in the draft that could help them, and it's a nice group in UFA as well.

Fragile Fred 2.0?

 

[EBF]

I think it's likely the Panthers will add a RB to replace DeAngelo Williams. There's a dozen in the draft that could help them, and it's a nice group in UFA as well.

There might only be 1-2 backs in this draft who can push a healthy Stewart. I don't think Stewart is losing sleep over the thought of a positional battle with Cameron Artis-Payne, Tevin Coleman, or Buck Allen. And those guys are possible day two picks. I doubt Carolina will grab a back until day three.

From the time DeAngelo Williams went down in the Falcons game to the end of the season (including playoffs), Stewart had 128 carries for 679 yards (5.3 YPC). Carolina was 5-2 during that period. It was easily their best stretch of the season. When the coaches sit down to review what went right and what went wrong in 2014, I don't think they're going to hone in on Stewart as part of the problem. He was one of their biggest bright spots in the second half of the season.

Stewart's redraft outlook in 2015 will probably hinge almost 100% on his ability to stay healthy. DeAngelo and Tolbert are non-factors at this point. I find it highly unlikely that the Panthers are going to find someone in the draft who can push him from day one. I would guess that they'll jettison Williams and add a new body for insurance.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

I think it's likely the Panthers will add a RB to replace DeAngelo Williams. There's a dozen in the draft that could help them, and it's a nice group in UFA as well.

There might only be 1-2 backs in this draft who can push a healthy Stewart. I don't think Stewart is losing sleep over the thought of a positional battle with Cameron Artis-Payne, Tevin Coleman, or Buck Allen. And those guys are possible day two picks. I doubt Carolina will grab a back until day three.

From the time DeAngelo Williams went down in the Falcons game to the end of the season (including playoffs), Stewart had 128 carries for 679 yards (5.3 YPC). Carolina was 5-2 during that period. It was easily their best stretch of the season. When the coaches sit down to review what went right and what went wrong in 2014, I don't think they're going to hone in on Stewart as part of the problem. He was one of their biggest bright spots in the second half of the season.

Stewart's redraft outlook in 2015 will probably hinge almost 100% on his ability to stay healthy. DeAngelo and Tolbert are non-factors at this point. I find it highly unlikely that the Panthers are going to find someone in the draft who can push him from day one. I would guess that they'll jettison Williams and add a new body for insurance.

As I said above, I like Stewart. He's a talent. His problem has always been staying healthy. He's played in 28 of the Panthers last 48 games. The most carries he's ever had was 221, and that was in 2009.

It's pretty clear Williams is done. Will Carolina go into 2015 with Stewart as their primary back? I'd say that's pretty likely. Will they have a very good contingency plan/competition for him? I'd say that's also likely.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Other than the two seasons he spent mistakenly avoiding ankle surgery and then recovering from ankle surgery, he's played 16,16,14,16 and 13 games.

If the ankles are right (which, who knows?), he's no more of an injury risk than any RB IMO.

Guys are hurt, until they're not. Guys are healthy, until they're not. That's just about all you can say. At least in terms of players with enough talent to be first-choice starters in the NFL.

 

[Billy Ball Thorton]

Far too much talent to ignore. One of the best backs when healthy, and once again showing that. Injury is the only thing that will keep him from being a top 10 RB next season.

Only problem is it's probably a good bet he gets injured.

I'll hold where I have him but not looking to invest where I do not unless it's for a mid 2nd.

 

[ahartig]

I have the option of keeping either Jstew or Herron in my keeper. I would only lose a 14th round pick for either one if I chose to do so. I'm thinking Jstew might be ther better option. In the games I saw he ran hard and broke tackles, I can only imagine Carolina will get better next year and improve their O line.

 

[scothawk]

I have the option of keeping either Jstew or Herron in my keeper. I would only lose a 14th round pick for either one if I chose to do so. I'm thinking Jstew might be ther better option. In the games I saw he ran hard and broke tackles, I can only imagine Carolina will get better next year and improve their O line.

If Bradshaw comes back then Herron loses value. If Bradshaw isn't back then I think the Colts pick up another back. Could be a rookie or maybe a FA if they find the right fit during the shuffle that looks to be upcoming.

Stewart meanwhile seems likely to lose Williams as a competitor for touches. Whilst CAR might get a rookie I think they may decide to run with Stewart for 2015.

Im holding and Im buying right now.

 

[jtd13]

Far too much talent to ignore. One of the best backs when healthy, and once again showing that. Injury is the only thing that will keep him from being a top 10 RB next season.

Only problem is it's probably a good bet he gets injured.

I'll hold where I have him but not looking to invest where I do not unless it's for a mid 2nd.

This is pretty much where I am at with him. There is so much vitrol toward Stewart that he's never really going to be a sell IMO. I'd rather have the RB2 production the 50% of the time that he's healthy than a random 3rd, but I'm also not looking to add him where I don't have him.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

ESPN Panthers reporter David Newton says there's a "strong possibility" DeAngelo Williams will be released this offseason.

It should be a no-brainer for the Panthers to move on from the ineffective Williams and save $2M against the cap. Especially considering they've dedicated $8.3M of their cap on Jonathan Stewart, who found his elite early-career-form in 2014 and needs to push for 20 touches per game next season. Stewart averaged a gaudy 4.62 YPC, ranking 11th among running backs in yards after contact per attempt and grading out 2nd in PFF's Elusive Rating (behind only Marshawn Lynch).

Related: DeAngelo Williams

Source: ESPN.com

Jan 20 - 10:40 AM

 

[cstu]

Far too much talent to ignore. One of the best backs when healthy, and once again showing that. Injury is the only thing that will keep him from being a top 10 RB next season.

Only problem is it's probably a good bet he gets injured.

I'll hold where I have him but not looking to invest where I do not unless it's for a mid 2nd.

This is pretty much where I am at with him. There is so much vitrol toward Stewart that he's never really going to be a sell IMO. I'd rather have the RB2 production the 50% of the time that he's healthy than a random 3rd, but I'm also not looking to add him where I don't have him.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Jonathan Stewart - RB - Panthers

Jonathan Stewart played 46.4 percent of snaps in 2014, easily the most of any Panthers running back.

That percentage improved to 68.6 over Carolina's last six games. The Panthers went 5-1 during that stretch with J-Stew averaging a robust 99 rushing yards per contest. Stewart was a bright spot in an otherwise ordinary Panthers offense and seemed to get better as the season went on. Assuming the Panthers cut ties with DeAngelo Williams, Stewart should be close to an every down back in 2015.

Source: ESPN.com

Feb 13 - 3:49 PM

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

That percentage improved to 68.6 over Carolina's last six games. The Panthers went 5-1 during that stretch with J-Stew averaging a robust 99 rushing yards per contest.

738 yards from scrimmage over his last seven games. His TDs will stay suppressed because of Cam, but if he stays healthy again he'll be a good bet for 1500+ yfs.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Coach Ron Rivera said at the NFL owners' meetings that the Panthers would like to limit Jonathan Stewart to around 15 carries a game in 2015.

It makes sense based on Stewart's injury history. Rivera insisted Carolina wants to maintain a two-back system with Stewart handling 15 runs a game and the No. 2 runner handling 8-10. "Running back has definitely been proven that you’ve got to have a good two-back tandem," said Rivera. "And that’s what we’re looking for. We’re looking for that complement to Jonathan." The Panthers have been linked to Todd Gurley and Tevin Coleman during the pre-draft phrase.

Source: ESPN.com
Mar 28 - 9:19 AM

 

[cstu]

Rotoworld:

Coach Ron Rivera said at the NFL owners' meetings that the Panthers would like to limit Jonathan Stewart to around 15 carries a game in 2015.

It makes sense based on Stewart's injury history. Rivera insisted Carolina wants to maintain a two-back system with Stewart handling 15 runs a game and the No. 2 runner handling 8-10. "Running back has definitely been proven that you’ve got to have a good two-back tandem," said Rivera. "And that’s what we’re looking for. We’re looking for that complement to Jonathan." The Panthers have been linked to Todd Gurley and Tevin Coleman during the pre-draft phrase.

Source: ESPN.com
Mar 28 - 9:19 AM

That works out to 240 carries and only 9 RB's had more carries than that last year.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Rotoworld:

Coach Ron Rivera said at the NFL owners' meetings that the Panthers would like to limit Jonathan Stewart to around 15 carries a game in 2015.

It makes sense based on Stewart's injury history. Rivera insisted Carolina wants to maintain a two-back system with Stewart handling 15 runs a game and the No. 2 runner handling 8-10. "Running back has definitely been proven that you’ve got to have a good two-back tandem," said Rivera. "And that’s what we’re looking for. We’re looking for that complement to Jonathan." The Panthers have been linked to Todd Gurley and Tevin Coleman during the pre-draft phrase.

Source: ESPN.com
Mar 28 - 9:19 AM

That works out to 240 carries and only 9 RB's had more carries than that last year.

That's a very....optimistic way of reading that. Largely because that 240 carries includes a full 16 games played, which most RBs don't have and Stewart is unlikely to do. Even outside of injury, it doesn't account for guys like Jeremy Hill, Justin Forsett, and CJ Anderson which took over feature back roles at some point into the season.

Hearing that a guy's CEILING is 240 carries is not really a good thing.

 

[humpback]

Rotoworld:

Coach Ron Rivera said at the NFL owners' meetings that the Panthers would like to limit Jonathan Stewart to around 15 carries a game in 2015.

It makes sense based on Stewart's injury history. Rivera insisted Carolina wants to maintain a two-back system with Stewart handling 15 runs a game and the No. 2 runner handling 8-10. "Running back has definitely been proven that you’ve got to have a good two-back tandem," said Rivera. "And that’s what we’re looking for. We’re looking for that complement to Jonathan." The Panthers have been linked to Todd Gurley and Tevin Coleman during the pre-draft phrase.

Source: ESPN.com
Mar 28 - 9:19 AM

That works out to 240 carries and only 9 RB's had more carries than that last year.

If only it were that simple.

 

[cstu]

Rotoworld:

Coach Ron Rivera said at the NFL owners' meetings that the Panthers would like to limit Jonathan Stewart to around 15 carries a game in 2015.

It makes sense based on Stewart's injury history. Rivera insisted Carolina wants to maintain a two-back system with Stewart handling 15 runs a game and the No. 2 runner handling 8-10. "Running back has definitely been proven that you’ve got to have a good two-back tandem," said Rivera. "And that’s what we’re looking for. We’re looking for that complement to Jonathan." The Panthers have been linked to Todd Gurley and Tevin Coleman during the pre-draft phrase.

Source: ESPN.com
Mar 28 - 9:19 AM

That works out to 240 carries and only 9 RB's had more carries than that last year.

If only it were that simple.

...for Stewart to stay healthy for 240 carries.

 

[EBF]

Hearing that a guy's CEILING is 240 carries is not really a good thing.

Except that's not his ceiling.

Coaches talk all the time about their plans. None of it is guaranteed.

When the game is on the line, they will do whatever they have to do to win. If that means handing Stewart the ball more than 15 times then that's what they'll do. Carolina was 5-1 in their last six games of 2014, with Stewart averaging 19 carries per game. Was that the "plan" in the preseason? Well, probably not, but it was what worked for them when they needed results.

Provided that Stewart is near 100% of his prime talent level (i.e. that he isn't slowing down/getting worse), he doesn't have much to worry about from this draft class. He's a better talent than any of the rookie backs based on all that I have seen of them. There are maybe 2-3 guys who would negatively impact his redraft outlook and the odds of Carolina getting one of them are slim based on random chance.

 

[jurb26]

If you think there are only 2-3 RBs in this draft class that could hurt Stewart's fantasy outlook, your seeing what you want to see. There are about 7 guys who could, maybe more. Any RB taken in round 1 or 2 would qualify and by my count that's anywhere between 6-9 guys. I don't think RB is a particularly high focus for Car in this draft but they could easily take one. They just had Gurley in town and apparently love him. It's doubtful he falls that far but if so, I wouldn't be surprised in the least if they pick him. I do think Car drafts a RB, but I find it much more probabl it's a late pick and one that Stewart wouldn't have to worry about much. Still, the amount of guys who can hurt him is significantly longer than a list of 2-3. There are 2 RBs who are flat out better than him IMO.

 

[Steed]

His value hasn't been this high since 2009. Owners will never get another chance like this one to sell him.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Hearing that a guy's CEILING is 240 carries is not really a good thing.

Except that's not his ceiling.

Coaches talk all the time about their plans. None of it is guaranteed.

When the game is on the line, they will do whatever they have to do to win. If that means handing Stewart the ball more than 15 times then that's what they'll do. Carolina was 5-1 in their last six games of 2014, with Stewart averaging 19 carries per game. Was that the "plan" in the preseason? Well, probably not, but it was what worked for them when they needed results.

Provided that Stewart is near 100% of his prime talent level (i.e. that he isn't slowing down/getting worse), he doesn't have much to worry about from this draft class. He's a better talent than any of the rookie backs based on all that I have seen of them. There are maybe 2-3 guys who would negatively impact his redraft outlook and the odds of Carolina getting one of them are slim based on random chance.

Oh jeez

 

[EBF]

If you think there are only 2-3 RBs in this draft class that could hurt Stewart's fantasy outlook, your seeing what you want to see. There are about 7 guys who could, maybe more. Any RB taken in round 1 or 2 would qualify and by my count that's anywhere between 6-9 guys. I don't think RB is a particularly high focus for Car in this draft but they could easily take one. They just had Gurley in town and apparently love him. It's doubtful he falls that far but if so, I wouldn't be surprised in the least if they pick him. I do think Car drafts a RB, but I find it much more probabl it's a late pick and one that Stewart wouldn't have to worry about much. Still, the amount of guys who can hurt him is significantly longer than a list of 2-3. There are 2 RBs who are flat out better than him IMO.

I have looked at this RB class in depth and I disagree with all of that. Stewart was a better prospect than any of this year's incoming rookies. There are very few things that Gurley/Gordon do better than him. He's bigger and more powerful than either, as well as being faster and more explosive.

If you don't buy that take, fine. Look at the facts.

- #13 overall pick in the 2008 draft (no RB this year will go that high)

- 4.6 career NFL YPC with almost 5,000 career rushing yards

- #26 on the NFL's all-time YPC leaderboard

When you factor in the experience edge that he'll have over any rookie, the odds of someone coming in and significantly impacting his production from day one are extremely slim. Objectively, Stewart is probably one of the top 10 RB prospects of the past decade. If you think there are almost 10 guys in this draft who can threaten him, you have a very skewed perception of rookie talent vs. veteran talent.

That is a common mistake. When you spend a lot of time evaluating prospects in the context of amateur football, it's easy to exaggerate how gifted they are. When you compare them with the best players in the NFL, many of those NCAA standouts don't look so hot. Stewart has nothing to fear from the likes of Mike Davis, TJ Yeldon, and Duke Johnson. With D-Will out of town, the biggest threat to Stewart's production is his durability.

 

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If you think there are only 2-3 RBs in this draft class that could hurt Stewart's fantasy outlook, your seeing what you want to see. There are about 7 guys who could, maybe more. Any RB taken in round 1 or 2 would qualify and by my count that's anywhere between 6-9 guys. I don't think RB is a particularly high focus for Car in this draft but they could easily take one. They just had Gurley in town and apparently love him. It's doubtful he falls that far but if so, I wouldn't be surprised in the least if they pick him. I do think Car drafts a RB, but I find it much more probabl it's a late pick and one that Stewart wouldn't have to worry about much. Still, the amount of guys who can hurt him is significantly longer than a list of 2-3. There are 2 RBs who are flat out better than him IMO.

I have looked at this RB class in depth and I disagree with all of that. Stewart was a better prospect than any of this year's incoming rookies. There are very few things that Gurley/Gordon do better than him. He's bigger and more powerful than either, as well as being faster and more explosive.

If you don't buy that take, fine. Look at the facts.

- #13 overall pick in the 2008 draft (no RB this year will go that high)

- 4.6 career NFL YPC with almost 5,000 career rushing yards

- #26 on the NFL's all-time YPC leaderboard

When you factor in the experience edge that he'll have over any rookie, the odds of someone coming in and significantly impacting his production from day one are extremely slim. Objectively, Stewart is probably one of the top 10 RB prospects of the past decade. If you think there are almost 10 guys in this draft who can threaten him, you have a very skewed perception of rookie talent vs. veteran talent.

That is a common mistake. When you spend a lot of time evaluating prospects in the context of amateur football, it's easy to exaggerate how gifted they are. When you compare them with the best players in the NFL, many of those NCAA standouts don't look so hot. Stewart has nothing to fear from the likes of Mike Davis, TJ Yeldon, and Duke Johnson. With D-Will out of town, the biggest threat to Stewart's production is his durability.

Talk about skewed data. We're comparing the 2008 draft to now? Back then RBs were regularly drafted high. The position has been devalued. On top of that, most everyone acknowledges Gurley as a top 5 talent in this draft. He's undoubtly a better talent than Stewart. Devaluation and his knee will drop him, though. Gordon is also better IMO and many share that opinion. His YPA would be more impressive if the guy he was regularly sharing time with didn't have a better YPA than him and did so on more carries. It would also help if he didn't have one of the lowest carry totals on that list, 1041.

Regardless, we're never going to agree on his talent. I like him, but you think he's some ubber talent and that's just not the case IMO.

The fact is he is on a team that openly wants to limit his touches and worse yet, has done just that year after year. Sure there have been a few isolated streaks, most due to the injury rotation being kind to him, but by and large that's what Car shown. A RB who comes in doesn't have to be a better talent to hurt him. As far as you've been concerned Williams and Tolbert have always been inferior players yet they have damaged his stock year after year. The other guy just has to be good enough for Car to feel comfortable keeping a timeshare.

Then of course is his propensity to get injured. Personally, I think Car is foolish to bet their hand on Stewart as a lead back and so does just about anyone here in Charlotte.

The bottom line is we have a guy who gets hurt a lot, his team lacks confidence in him as a full time bellcow and a draft ripe with a ton of talented runners who can help the team by becoming part of a rotation. Again, I don't see RB as a priority for Car but thinking a guy drafted in round 1 or 2 isn't a threat to Stewart is plan foolish. If Car decides to take a RB that highly it's because they feel he's talented enought to make an impact. It's irrelevant where they took Stewart in the draft 8 years ago. It's about winning games today.