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Dynasty: Kaleb Johnson vs Kendre Miller (1 Viewer)

JohnnyU

Footballguy
Putting aside the what have you done for me lately evaluations, let's take a look at both of these RBs and how they stack up in dynasty. Both were highly recarded prospects comeing out of college and both struggled out of the gate. Miller was in the doghouse early on because he couldn't get off the trainer's table. He has struggled big time with injuries since being drafted. Johnson is struggling now and is buried on the Steelers depth chart.

The knock on Johnson is he ran a 4.57 at the combine and hasn't looked very explosive and isn't very decisive picking a running lane. Plus, there are questions about his receiving ability. He caught 22 passes for 188 yards his last year at Iowa, so it's not like he can't catch, but receiving will probably never be a strong suit for him. When I watched him in college he reminded me of Derrick Henry once he got a full head of steam. Getting up that head of steam could be an issue and I'm not sure his game translates to the NFL as it is right now.

Pittsburgh resigned Warren to a 2 year extension and Kenny Gainwell has looked great filling in for Warren this past week. I'm not sure when Kaleb Johnson will get his chance in Pittsburgh. Maybe he and Miller share one thing in common, but for different reasons, to start to show what they can do in year three. Miller being healthy now and perhaps Johnson whenever it starts to click in a year or two, if it ever does. We've seen our share of RBs bust that we thought would be studs. Remember Trent Richardson?

Like Miller's stuggles in 2023 and 2024, It's too early to write off Kaleb Johnson. Fantasy owners are way too impatient these days. You would think dynasty players would understand this more than redraft players, but hell, even they are becoming too impatient with rookies.

Miller is in his 3rd year and is still only 23 years old. Johnson is 22 in his rookie season.

Now that Miller is healthy he's starting to look like the player we thought he was going to be. I would think Alvin Kamara isn't for long with the Saints and there are trade rumors already circling. After all, why would the Saints hold on to Alvin Kamara? He's an aging asset and they sure aren't anywhere close to competing it appears. The Saints should get something for him while they can. If memory serves he has a friendly contract, but don't quote me on that.

Well, before I write a book I'll stop right there and open this up for discussion. Who is the better dynasty asset, Kaleb Johnson or Kendre Miller?
 
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Both have been mild disappointments thus far. I prefer Miller's upside as a potential 3-down back, but the injury history concerns me. For the right price, I would be willing to pursue both Miller and Johnson, but Dynasty managers may be unwilling to sell at low current market value.
 
My main concern is the lineage. While Miller has certainly looked better as mentioned above and the new regime clearly doesn't despise him like the previous regime did, he was still a holdover from the previous regime. Even if he continues to play well, Moore and Co. may just go out and find their guy next year. Kaleb, on the other hand, has a long way to go, but the current staff made a reasonably sized investment in him, so he may have a longer leash.
 
My main concern is the lineage. While Miller has certainly looked better as mentioned above and the new regime clearly doesn't despise him like the previous regime did, he was still a holdover from the previous regime. Even if he continues to play well, Moore and Co. may just go out and find their guy next year. Kaleb, on the other hand, has a long way to go, but the current staff made a reasonably sized investment in him, so he may have a longer leash.
Both were third round picks and Miller’s prospect pedigree was just as good as Johnson’s if I’m remembering correctly. I’ll give you the regime recency angle however.
 
I'd take Miller, maybe biased because have liked Miller from get go and he's on a couple of my teams and conversely was a bit down on Kaleb from get go and thought was a bit overrated partly because people got overly excited about landing spot. Think the regime change in this case clearly helped Miller and if he's playing well for them don't see much of a reason to try to go with someone else just for the sake of being able to choose him.
 
My main concern is the lineage. While Miller has certainly looked better as mentioned above and the new regime clearly doesn't despise him like the previous regime did, he was still a holdover from the previous regime. Even if he continues to play well, Moore and Co. may just go out and find their guy next year. Kaleb, on the other hand, has a long way to go, but the current staff made a reasonably sized investment in him, so he may have a longer leash.
Here is my comment to your concerns.

You are right we should not assume, as I once did, that Kendre is the heir to the RB throne in Nola even if they finally part with Kamara after this year, and I'm not sure they will. But barring a Jeremiah Love or big ticket FA pickup at RB which hardly seems to makes any sense for them on multiple angles. So I think he's got a great shot at being at worst in the mix next year as feature back or more of a pure RBBC. But my main thing to add is he's in the last year of his contract in 2026. Already. So if the situation does not work for him with the Saints he's not that far off from being able to pick his own better situation and if got to that he'd be a 25 year old lightly used player.

On Kaleb. I have kind of argued a little on these boards the investment in him is not that big. It's not horrible, it's just not the kind of commitment were a team would feel indebted to keep trying to make it work. I've also mentioned a few times when the Steelers approached the pick where they selected Kaleb they engaged with the Jaguars on a trade to move back into round 4. So it does not seem to me like they were really focusing on Kaleb, and I can't say for sure what the Giants would have done but they did hire Kaleb's RB coach at Iowa into the same position so would they have gone Kaleb over Statt? Either way the Steelers had to think what I'm thinking and understand if they moved back to round 4 they stood a strong chance of losing him.

Lastly on the RB competition.

Warren's odds of returning in 2026 are infintely greater then Kamara's even if the extension he just signed is one of the lowest commitment extensions I've seen. They might even bring back Gainwell who their main player personnel guy loves and was apparently responsible for drafting him in Philly.

Past that focusing on odds of a RB coming via the draft the Steelers have 12 picks right now and not just a load of 6th and 7th rounders. 9 picks total in the first 5 rounds including 7 in rounds 3-5 which are heavy RB draft zones.
 
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You are right we should not assume, as I once did, that Kendre is the heir to the RB throne in Nola even if they finally part with Kamara after this year, and I'm not sure they will. But barring a Jeremiah Love or big ticket FA pickup at RB which hardly seems to makes any sense for them on multiple angles.
Fair point - the Saints are perennially in cap purgatory. While we all know that teams find their way around the cap when they need to, I doubt that RB is one of the areas they'll focus on maneuvering around. So Kendre could have a good shot next year if he continues to make strides. We also shouldn't rule out Devin Neal though when all is said and done.
 
Kendre isn't durable enough so I'll take Kaleb in this one.
He seemed pretty durable last week. Maybe he's over the string of bad luck with injuries. Will you still feel the same way if Johnson is 3rd string next year and the year after that? You think he will beat out both Warren and Gainwell next year, or Warren the year after that? I believe that's what a lot of people thought coming into this year. He may eventually, I don't know.
 
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I actually don't think KJ is a bad buy low. That said, I'm not sure how excited I'd be to send off my late 2nd based on what we've seen.

I love Kendre's talent. Hung on forever before packing it up for a 3rd rounder ahead of the season. Kind of bummed that he's finally looking the part and able to string weeks of health together. I was able to pounce on Horton with the roster spot, so maybe it works out. It will hurt if he's a bell cow in 2026, even on a bad offense, but it's still a long way to go to get there. The Saints offense actually hasn't been nearly as bad as I feared.
 
I actually don't think KJ is a bad buy low. That said, I'm not sure how excited I'd be to send off my late 2nd based on what we've seen.

The hit rate on late 2nd round picks is surpringsingly low, and most of the guys that do hit went through periods where they were probably given up on and very cheap (IE how many people that enjoyed Chuba's breakout were the ones that originally drafted him as a rookie?).

Compared to a late 2nd, I'd rather have the guy that had mid-1st round value just a month ago.
 
I own a share of Kaleb and would probably trade him for Miller today. I'd guess Kaleb has more of a market currently, but put me in the camp of owner who no longer believes in Kaleb. I'd trade him for and early round 2027 pick at this point.
 
Both are kind of meh, but I would take Kaleb. Miller has injury history, and he is with a bad organization and doesn't have much time left on his rookie deal.

For every Javonte Williams to Dallas or David Montgomery to Detroit there are a lot more, Devin Singletary, Rico Dowdle, types that just float around the league that never do anything.

I don't include free agent rbs likenBarkley, or Henry types because those guys are different types of players and guys like Kaleb and Miller aren't in their class.
 
I was curious, so I checked my non-devy dynasty leagues to compare where they were drafted.

Johnson - 1.12, 1.07, 1.07
Miller - 1.11, 1.12, 2.06
 
I was curious, so I checked my non-devy dynasty leagues to compare where they were drafted.

Johnson - 1.12, 1.07, 1.07
Miller - 1.11, 1.12, 2.06
Miller went 1.05 in one of mine, which as I mentioned in the Kaleb thread put me off burning early to mid 1sts on 3rd round rbs.

Then again Kamara was also a 3rd rounder and obviously you’d spend your 1.05 for that career every time
 
Kaleb went 1.07 in my primary Dynasty
Miller went 2.02 his rookie (me- still holding with AK41)

Last week, Kaleb owner offered him for a 2026 1st. Passed.

Millet offers more “electric” play potential TODAY. But as was referenced above Kaleb has a “King Henry’esq” style and could develop into more than what we see today.
I don’t think Miller will be a high volume touch RB just based on his injury history and NOS situation (cap & AK)
If I had to choose give me Kaleb but I am not spending a 1st.
 
I was curious, so I checked my non-devy dynasty leagues to compare where they were drafted.

Johnson - 1.12, 1.07, 1.07
Miller - 1.11, 1.12, 2.06
Miller went 1.05 in one of mine, which as I mentioned in the Kaleb thread put me off burning early to mid 1sts on 3rd round rbs.

Then again Kamara was also a 3rd rounder and obviously you’d spend your 1.05 for that career every time

That's where I reached for him. It wasn't stupid because it didn't work out; it was stupid in the reach itself. Welp, I learned.
 
I was curious, so I checked my non-devy dynasty leagues to compare where they were drafted.

Johnson - 1.12, 1.07, 1.07
Miller - 1.11, 1.12, 2.06
I don't understand the point of comparing when they were drafted in fantasy.

It says nothing about actual or perceived talent level. It was opportunity.

Kaleb was expected to win the job quickly while Miller was known to be stuck behind Kamara.
 
I was curious, so I checked my non-devy dynasty leagues to compare where they were drafted.

Johnson - 1.12, 1.07, 1.07
Miller - 1.11, 1.12, 2.06
I don't understand the point of comparing when they were drafted in fantasy.

It says nothing about actual or perceived talent level. It was opportunity.

Kaleb was expected to win the job quickly while Miller was known to be stuck behind Kamara.
Just curiosity that’s all. Good luck on Sundays.
 

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