FantasyTrader
Footballguy
I think both sides are probably some degree of right. Forte strikes me as an excellent case study of just how much a RB's fantasy value is at the mercy of factors beyond his control.
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[DYNASTY] Matt Forte (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter EBF
- Start date
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Hi all!
I don't play FF anymore but the Vikings are playing the Bears tonight and so I was doing some reading. I guess Forte is still getting like 40% of the Bears offense!! So much for being so average that a journeyman would replace him eh?
I think sometimes even very smart football fans like EBF make mistakes. It is inevitable. But the mistake gets compounded by a stubbornness that won't allow us to recognize that mistake. So learn from this and try not to do that with other players moving forward.
glll peas
ETA- If switz agrees with you that is good reason to re-evaluate the situation.
I don't play FF anymore but the Vikings are playing the Bears tonight and so I was doing some reading. I guess Forte is still getting like 40% of the Bears offense!! So much for being so average that a journeyman would replace him eh?
I think sometimes even very smart football fans like EBF make mistakes. It is inevitable. But the mistake gets compounded by a stubbornness that won't allow us to recognize that mistake. So learn from this and try not to do that with other players moving forward.
glll peas
ETA- If switz agrees with you that is good reason to re-evaluate the situation.
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bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
EBF isnt nostradomas (sp?) even the best in this hobby get stuff wrong.He felt one way on Forte, and clearly he was wrong, regard of ypc or any other stat he will quote. Forte is a top10 RB regardless of format and its time to end the debate
geoff8695
Footballguy
Don't confuse EBF with moderated
loose circuits
Footballguy
proclaiming there is a 'best' in this hobby is subjective at best. while I appreciate the effort EBF puts into some of this lists, I am confused how he has built that type of reputation in some people's minds because I am not overly impressed...this was a pretty large proclamation and you can say you disagree with the value or are not high on him, but he certainly drew his line in the sand here and this is more than just that with the proclamations made in this thread
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not sure how anyone can still believe he's not among the best backs in the league right now.he's the entire Bears offense, their line stinks, and he's completely dominating.
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ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Yuck. There are people here, and elsewhere, whose opinions on players I value above the norm. But I'd never make a big decision solely based off of their opinions, unless I saw it with my own eyes first.I'm one who sold for peanuts Forte a few years ago based on this thread.I don't get to see many Bears games so depended a lot on this thread as people here were saying he had bad vision, no ability to break tackles, no second gear etc.
loose circuits
Footballguy
I acquired Forte for 3 1st round picks (likely 6-12). Not bad for an overrated player, but I had to get on this train in a win now. he's playing like one of the top backs in the league right now and is still just 25 (26 in Dec). Many people were frustrated with the guy who is rebuilding that sold him to me, but I think it's a pretty good gauge of where his value is at.
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benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
Come on Aaron, you know that nobody changes their mind in the Shark Pool. EBF can't step away from his prediction that much
I was dead wrong about him much earlier in this thread.
It appears to me that he is a significantly quicker player who possesses more burst and ability to make defenders miss than when I first watched him play as a rookie and second year player. Nothing much has changed about his situation- he still has a terrible offensive line, little to no offensive weapons around him, and a questionable play caller, but he flat out looks like a significantly better player this year (and most of last year...although last year he still didn't look close to the player he is currently).
It appears to me that he is a significantly quicker player who possesses more burst and ability to make defenders miss than when I first watched him play as a rookie and second year player. Nothing much has changed about his situation- he still has a terrible offensive line, little to no offensive weapons around him, and a questionable play caller, but he flat out looks like a significantly better player this year (and most of last year...although last year he still didn't look close to the player he is currently).
squistion
Footballguy
EBF seems to have a blind spot regarding certain players and when he makes a pronouncement like he is The Oracle of Delphi (as he did here in 2009) he is loathe to ever retract it (I am still waiting for an admission that McFadden is an above average starting RB, but not holding my breath on that either).Oh, and if you think he may have learned from past mistakes, we have this gem from earlier in the year.
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=580919&st=0Well, he did at least qualify it to One of the most overrated. And that is not to say he ultimately won't turn out to be right - although it looks less likely after Murray broke the Cowboys franchise rushing record. Admittedly, it was just one game against the hapless Rams and Jerome Harrison also set a franchise mark for Cleveland a couple years back, so Murray could just be a one-week-wonder. However, a trend seems to be emerging that if EBF draws a line in the sand and declares a player is among the most overrated or will be a bust, it might be prudent to move that player up your draft board.
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Avery
Footballguy
Not to derail the thread, but Deangelo is averaging 5.0 YPC this year, right at his career average.
EBF
Footballguy
We've never even played against each other in a league and I've never gone out of my way to insult you, so I'm puzzled why you religiously monitor my FF predictions and pop up in every thread like this with your, "See, EBF doesn't know anything, listen to the REAL scouts." I'm sure Google can point you towards some psychologists who can work on whatever self-esteem/jealousy/insecurity issues have caused you to become so obsessed with the FF predictions of a person you've never even met. What have I ever done to you? Absolutely nada. Sad.'squistion said:
I've never claimed to be a pro scout or a dominant FF player. I'm a guy who enjoys the hobby and likes making a prediction here and there. I also enjoy being theatrical and dramatic. This sometimes results in some pretty ridiculous quotes and statements. I can see how that would rub some people the wrong way, which is why I fully understand why threads like this get bumped when they break bad for me. If you're going to dish it out, you have to be ready to take it. I don't care if people rip me about players like DMC or Forte. I've been wrong a lot in the past and I'm sure I'll be wrong plenty of times in the future.
Anyone who participates in this hobby and has a tendency to share his opinions will inevitably make some idiotic calls. Yea, I was off the mark with DMC and Forte. There have been plenty of other times when I was right. Why don't you bump some of my posts about Tony Hunt, Brian Leonard, Ray Rice, or Ben Roethlisberger? If you dig through the post histories of any frequent and long term poster on this site, you'll find some great analysis and some awful predictions. That's just par for the course when it comes to FF.
Football Jones
Footballguy
Forte is the best RB in the league at this point in time. He's also the best FF RB.
Nobody else even has a case, IMO. No other RB has his combination of elite skills.
Nobody else even has a case, IMO. No other RB has his combination of elite skills.
jurb26
Footballguy
Ummm, lets not get carries away now. Peterson, McFadden, Rice, Foster and McCoy are all in the argument with Forte. I'd also say MJD should get some love as he is quietly having a great season on a poor team.
Football Jones
Footballguy
BTW, in defense of EBF, this is a difficult hobby. It's easy to sit back & criticize if you don't put any predictions out yourself. He was wrong about Forte & I'm sure he knew he'd catch heck for it.
While I'll diagree with somebody, I never go out of my way to rub it in. I guess things can get personal, but I try to keep it civil.
While I'll diagree with somebody, I never go out of my way to rub it in. I guess things can get personal, but I try to keep it civil.
Football Jones
Footballguy
Personally, I don't see how anybody could make a case for anyone else. Nobody has his combination of elite skills.Forte is just good enough to be a step above the guys you mentioned, IMO.
RBM
Footballguy
I love Forte but Peterson makes a pretty good case.
Reading through the thread, I don't think most people are trying to bash him or call him out as not knowing what he's talking about although I'm sure there were a few who wanted to get in some extra shots for some unknown reason. In the prediction business, everybody gets things wrong from time to time. When that happens, best thing to do is just own up to it, IMO.Nothing wrong with admitting a mistake. Also, some players do improve dramatically over time from what they showed early in their careers or in college. They keep working and getting better so it's not really fair to make an initial judgment on a player and then stick to it stubbornly despite piles of evidence to the contrary.That's why I thought it was odd to say a little while ago that he still didn't recognize Forte as being anything special or separating out Forte's receiving skills from his running skills. They all work together to make him one of the most complete backs in the league and he's showing his true potential right now.
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Football Jones
Footballguy
Yeah, I don't see how you could watch Forte & not see a special, special player. I agree it's surprising to see anyone say he's not.
identikit
Footballguy
Yep. that's the real rub here.Not that everyone's wrong sometimes. It's not stepping up and acknowledging when you are.
squistion
Footballguy
I really don't have to, because you do a pretty good job of self promotion without my assistance. Your signature line (which oddly did not appear in your last post) is entitled "THE BEST OF F U N K" and in it you link to threads that document the calls where you correctly demonstrated your evaluation skills.You really can't have it both ways - on one hand crowing about the calls you got right in your signature line, and then taking umbrage that people remember posts like this.
But why should it matter? It matters because of the person who posted this and those like him:
After over 11k posts and your annual rookie ranking lists, there are people who take seriously what you have to say and make decisions based on that. And they may not be aware that (perhaps to gain attention) you are just being "theatrical and dramatic". In any event, some perspective is needed, because it isn't going to come from you.
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CentralPA
Footballguy
After reading this thread I had also second guessed having Forte after his breakout year and then he had the down year and I got rid of him just like some other folks in here. I don't blame this thread of EBF. I felt like Forte was going to be a decent fantasy back but nothing spectacular. I was dead wrong, I move on and try to find a similar if not a better player than Forte (although right now that would be very hard because he's pretty damn good if not the best this year).
What many people don't know is that he needed surgery and that's why he had a "down-year" last season.. He got the surgery in the off-season, and now we can see his real potential. I personally think that he is the best pass-cathing RB and that he is avering such a high yards pr. carrie behind THE worst o-line in the league is fantastic. It's amazing that before the season started many people didn't even have him in the top 10 RB, but now he is top 5?
Good job Forte!
Good job Forte!
squistion
Footballguy
That may deserve its own thread. Disclaimer, I own Forte in non-PPR, DMC and Chris Johnson in PPR, and Mathews in no leagues.If I was making a run for the playoffs in PPR as a Forte owner, I don't think I would do a straight up trade of Forte for DMC and with his most recent injury raising again the durability concerns, I am not sure if I would do a swap even if I were in a rebuilding mode. Forte doesn't come close to having DMC's talent IMO, but something has to be said for a player that is currently a fantasy points machine and (to my knowledge) has not missed a game since he entered the NFL. As far as Chris Johnson, who knows when he will get out of his funk (so to speak) so I think I would do a straight up trade for Forte in any format at the moment. With Mathews I would probably pull the trigger, but I have never been a big fan of his, so I am not unbiased in that respect.
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wudaben
Footballguy
I own Forte in a keep 2, non PPR league and given the state of the Bear's offense and lack of other quality skill players there are very few players I think I would take in a trade at this point. I'd say Foster, Peterson & Rice for sure but after that it gets iffy. It's funny cause prior to this season I was almost contemplating trading him as I thought he was a weak #2 keeper.
Seems like the classic 'best pure runner' vs 'best running back' argument between the two.
jurb26
Footballguy
I don't agree with a lot of EBF's posts/evaluations, mainly because I don't think he gathers enough of the proper information and seems to hold bias on certain players. But if someone is simply going to blindly follow them w/o doing at least a little thinking for themselves that's kind of on them, no?I still appreciate his efforts and his willingness to share his opinion regardless of how much I agree with them.
squistion
Footballguy
I would have to agree with that - if one does blindly follow the recommendations of anyone here without doing any thinking for themselves, then they only have themselves to blame if it comes out poorly. That said, I also think that if one is a respected poster and their opinions have forum credibility (as does EBF) then they should be aware that people will make decisions in money leagues based on what they say. In that regard, I personally find it somewhat irresponsible to make "ridiculous quotes and statements" in an effort to be "theatrical and dramatic" when other people's money is involved.
Back when this thread started, I assumed that the OP was being serious and that he honestly believed what he was saying about Forte. (Obviously others did too or this thread would not have run 20 pages and still be active 2 years after the fact). If I had sold Forte for peanuts as a result of that, I would also be upset to now learn that the thread was intentionally over-the-top with the purpose perhaps more to cause controversy instead of being informative.
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EBF
Footballguy
Values always ebb and flow in dynasty. This post was made after Forte's rookie season when he was considered a unanimous top 10 dynasty pick. His value DID drop in his sophomore year, so anyone who took my advice and sold high didn't necessarily get burned.
Having said that, I was certainly wrong about his job security and his long term ability to thrive. He has not only kept his job, but improved considerably from a statistical standpoint. I didn't see that coming after his 2 yards and a cloud of dust days.
Having said that, I was certainly wrong about his job security and his long term ability to thrive. He has not only kept his job, but improved considerably from a statistical standpoint. I didn't see that coming after his 2 yards and a cloud of dust days.
