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Your looking at it in FF terms, but if guys can't get it done in NFL terms, they often find themselves useless to FF owners.From an NFL perspective, running against a crappy D, his performance stunk. I really expected Forte to do really well against CLE and all his hypers to be claiming how good he is. He couldnt' even do that for them this week.
Yes. Have you watched the Rams lately? Had some huge holes last week against Indy. You are saying thats not the case?Huh?
Addai averaged 4.8 YPC over his first 22 games. Then his OL fell apart, his QB got injured, and he got injured. Yet his YPC under those dire circumstances was close to Forte's YPC so far in Forte's career. Maybe Addai has lost a step now, who knows... but the comparison to Addai (now) is a good one. I would argue was easily the better RB coming into the league.To compare, yesterday Addai played SF. SF was allowing 3.2 YPC to opposing RBs, and Addai averaged 3.1 YPC. On the other hand Forte played CLE which was allowing 4.9 YPC to opposing runnners and Forte averaged 3.4 YPC. The numbers don't indicate Forte is better than Addai.BTW, Brown's YPC (outside of the last game he played with only two carries) was on par with Addai's. The problem with Addai is the OL, not Addai.
I said that about Addai, he was in the league three years, and they spent a 1st round pick on another RB (complement or replacement to be debated). Forte will see the same thing, except Forte will probably just be replaced or moved to 3rd down RB.
I don't believe Addai & Forte are even close. Forte is better than Addai in nearly every facet of the game, IMO. And I think Forte would swap OLs with Addai in a New York second.
Like I said, though, many people believe Forte is an average NFL RB. I believe that's the case with you, & if so, I can understand why you're down on him.
The great Vince Workman, who rushed for more than 300 yards once in his career (1992 - 631 Yds). The similarities between him and Forte are uncanny...
Fortunately we can each believe whatever we want. The numbers don't necessarily support those beliefsI don't believe Addai & Forte are even close. Forte is better than Addai in nearly every facet of the game, IMO. And I think Forte would swap OLs with Addai in a New York second.
I don't think you can make that comparison between Forte & Addai. The Colts have consistently shown that they don't value RBs the same way other teams do. They have moved both Faulk & James rather than pay them. Addai follows in the same path, the Colts operate through Manning & the RBs are replaceable.
Good job looking it up... and proving my point. Guys who are good at everything, but great at nothing do not last, or even get a shot usually, as a feature back.Workman's career YPC is better than Forte's. Workman was a good receiver like Forte too. And when used at the GL, he was very effective. He is Matt Forte to a tee, just with less opps.The great Vince Workman, who rushed for more than 300 yards once in his career (1992 - 631 Yds). The similarities between him and Forte are uncanny...
I don't have a dog in this fight either way. I do though, think Forte has proven that he can at least carry the load and be productive doing so. There have been a number of long lasting backs who one would not deem to be "elite" runners; I would say guys like Ricky Watters and Curtis Martin carved out nice careers without ever having the running skills of an LT or Barry Sanders. On the flipside though, 3.5 YPC ain't gonna cut it for a really extended perios of time (unless you're Antoine Smith).Good job looking it up... and proving my point. Guys who are good at everything, but great at nothing do not last, or even get a shot usually, as a feature back.Workman's career YPC is better than Forte's. Workman was a good receiver like Forte too. And when used at the GL, he was very effective. He is Matt Forte to a tee, just with less opps.The great Vince Workman, who rushed for more than 300 yards once in his career (1992 - 631 Yds). The similarities between him and Forte are uncanny...
This thought process is almost as bad as Sho Nuff.......Wasn't Forte top 10 last year?Good job looking it up... and proving my point. Guys who are good at everything, but great at nothing do not last, or even get a shot usually, as a feature back.Workman's career YPC is better than Forte's. Workman was a good receiver like Forte too. And when used at the GL, he was very effective. He is Matt Forte to a tee, just with less opps.The great Vince Workman, who rushed for more than 300 yards once in his career (1992 - 631 Yds). The similarities between him and Forte are uncanny...
hmm...if Forte never went to college to play he wouldn't have been drafted.If MJD didn't get goalline carries we wouldn't say he was a TD threat.If Brett Favre hadn't thrown all the TDs, but still won, we wouldn't think he was as good.See how we can play that game?And btw...Peterson had twice as many yards (180) and one more TD (3) than Forte against CLE....and didn't have as many carries as Forte. So we wouldn't be saying anything, because actual elite backs destroy crap like CLEBTW, if Peterson had produced the same FF numbers as Forte did against the Browns, nobody would've said anything. It's just kind of puzzling.Just too much focus on YPC, IMO. Then again, like I've said before, it would be a dull hobby if everybody thought the same thing.
First, he did do well. Second, he would have done a lot better with a better line. Watch the kid play -- there is a lot more that goes into the YPC statistic.Finally, yes, I am still convinced he is a very good football player and would start for quite a few NFL teams. IMO he's settled nicely in the tier between the Steven Jackson's and the Joe Addai's.
Who is saying he is elite? There are very few backs that are in that category.You're comparing apples and oranges when you compare ADP v CLE and Forte v CLE. Different teams, situations, etc. Why not look at the DET game they both played -- Forte did just as well if not better than ADP.hmm...if Forte never went to college to play he wouldn't have been drafted.If MJD didn't get goalline carries we wouldn't say he was a TD threat.If Brett Favre hadn't thrown all the TDs, but still won, we wouldn't think he was as good.See how we can play that game?And btw...Peterson had twice as many yards (180) and one more TD (3) than Forte against CLE....and didn't have as many carries as Forte. So we wouldn't be saying anything, because actual elite backs destroy crap like CLEBTW, if Peterson had produced the same FF numbers as Forte did against the Browns, nobody would've said anything. It's just kind of puzzling.Just too much focus on YPC, IMO. Then again, like I've said before, it would be a dull hobby if everybody thought the same thing.
Why look at DET, but ignore CLE? You like DET because it was Forte's ONLY 100 yard game due to a fluky 61 yard run?You might use GB since AP and Forte had identical games 25-55 against GB. But then AP played GB again and had 97 yards.Or how about Addai, playing also behind a pretty awful run blocking OL against SEA getting 3.8 YPC, versus Forte against SEA getting 3.1 YPC.The comparisons can go on and on, and one RB may have his greatest game against a team the other RB has his worst game against. But when you add all the games up, the problem is Forte is pretty consistently not doing much this year.Whatever you want to blame it on, there's no denying Forte simply is not getting it done. And so far in his NFL career, he's given no reason to think he's any better than average as an NFL RB.
I live in St. Louis. I unfortunately have watched Rams games lately. And I get to listen to the breakdown of the games all week on the radio. I am most definitely saying that's not the case. Indy's run defense may have played poorly, but that was by no result of the O-line and that's the ONLY game SJax had any type of room to run that he didn't create himself. Even this past week in Detroit it was mostly him. Matt Forte would have been taken down in the backfield on quite a few of those.Yes. Have you watched the Rams lately? Had some huge holes last week against Indy. You are saying thats not the case?
I agree that's not "stink", but that's not exactly what you expect from your elite RBs with such a juicy matchup... particularly on the yardage side. Hate to make this refrain again, but that's what you expect from an average RB with that matchup.
I understand what you're getting at here, but I can produce a list probably 10x as long of RB's with similar YPC that lost their jobs after 2-3 years because of how badly they performed, O-line or not. The guys you listed are the exceptions, not the rule. Also, Faulk, Allen, and George were high 1st round picks. Thomas was a sure-fire 1st round pick until his injury caused him to fall to the 2nd round. Only Ricky Watters was a mid 2nd round pick like Forte.So, those three 1st round picks are going to be afforded much more time.Thurman Thomas, a 2nd round pick, started his career with the following: 4.3, 4.2, 4.8, 4.9, 4.8. So yes, he may have eventually had some down years later in his career, but he had already proved he could produce and earned the right to continue starting.Likewise, Ricky Watters 1st 2 years were 4.9 and 4.6 ypc. He also earned himself the right to play by starting off that way. Forte earned his time because of his rookie season, particularly his contribution in the passing game. This year, until recently, that hasn't been there and the YPC is even lower. But, #'s aside, he just doesn't look the part to me. Those passes he caught last night were with wide open field in front on most of them and he just looks slow to me. He's not dynamic. And, he's not a push the pile kind of guy either. He does have pretty good balance and he was able to turn a couple plays last night from a marginal play into 1st downs. Aside from that, I'm just not impressed with him. He catches the ball VERY well, but other than that, he's just not that much more than average at everything else.
Those are all horrible comparisons, for more than just the reasons mentioned. From a pure talent standpoint, every single one of them was far more talented than Forte.Also, note that Ricky Watters also fell in the draft due to knee issues, and missed his entire rookie season after knee surgery IIRC. He and Thurman were both much more talented than Forte.Faulk is one of the most talented players to ever touch a football, regardless of position, Forte isn't even one of the most talented RBs currently playing in the NFL.Eddie George wasn't that good of an RB IMO.
But sure he's an example of how a team might stick with an underperforming guy for a long time, but as you noted he was a very high draft pick - Forte wasn't. George also fit the mold of offense that the team wanted to run. Forte doesn't, they need a guy who can be an explosive runner.
The "weird higher standard" comes from those people who were valuing him as a top 3-5 overall dynasty back. All I (and EBF and others) have been saying is that, at that price, he's incredibly overvalued. He may well have a good career, but to expect top 5 numbers on a consistent basis (and to pay that kind of price for him) is silly.
I think where many people go wrong with Forte is believing he was only productive last season because of his workload, yet his PPR points-per-touch average was outstanding (better than Peterson & Jackson, for instance). Like with most player evaluations, stats need to take a back seat to your eyes. I compare this to people not liking Chris Johnson when he came out because of his size. I know numbers are important, & they have their place, but nothing can take the place of your eyes.Without going into detail (we've been over this before), my eyes tell me Forte will be an outstanding RB for a long time, & despite what amounts to a poor situation now, Chicago has the potential to be a nice situation in the not-too-distant future. Could I be wrong? Of course. NFL teams are wrong all the time & they have tons more resources than we do. That said, I like my chances given my history (not trying to sound pompous). I tend to be right when I have a strong opinion, but I'm not discrediting anyone who disagrees with my assessment of Forte. It's just a difference of opinion.In the end, we're all here to learn. If I'm wrong, I'll learn something. Like I've said many times, it would be a pretty dull hobby if we all thought the same thing.
Ummmm... that's because PPR leagues awarded Forte points for most of his touches! That'd be like awarding a point for every carry by an RB named "Larry" and then saying that Larry Johnson's points per touch was off the charts, twice a high as his next closest competitor. Sure, it's technically true, but it's because of the nature of the touches (i.e. lots of receptions, which are an automatic point) and not because of the value of the touches. An RB who had 5 catches for 0 yards and no carries on the season would lead the league in points per touch in a PPR league.If you want to measure Forte's NFL productivity "fantasy points per touch in a PPR league" is among the worst metrics you could possibly used, sandwiched somewhere between "40 yard dash time" and "field goal percentage". By any decent metric (yards per carry, yards per reception, success rate, DVOA), Forte was a well below average back with a well above average opportunity. Now, if you want to say that your eyes tell you that Forte is an elite RB, then be my guest... but don't try to bring stats to the table to support that opinion, because there really is no statistical support for that position.
He might not be what's wrong with it, but he's also certainly not what's right with it. Average talents allow their production to be dictated by their surroundings, so the best support that can be offered for Forte right now is that he's an average talent, and as a result we can't blame him for his failure to rise above his situation.
I won't address the first part because SSOG already nailed it. As for the second part, there's a reason I have Chris Johnson is almost every dynasty league and I don't have Forte in any, and it's the same reason I sold Slaton in one of my primary leagues for 3x 1st rounders. When I look at Forte and Slaton, I see average to possibly good talents who are being valued like elite talents because of their numbers and production. In CJ3, I saw elite talent even on film. Forte is well-rounded, but to me nothing stands out. Even if he remains the starter for a long time, I see him as the kind of guy who is only productive because of situation - as we're seeing this year, when the OL and run game is struggling generally, he doesn't create opportunity by himself.I think where many people go wrong with Forte is believing he was only productive last season because of his workload, yet his PPR points-per-touch average was outstanding (better than Peterson & Jackson, for instance). Like with most player evaluations, stats need to take a back seat to your eyes. I compare this to people not liking Chris Johnson when he came out because of his size. I know numbers are important, & they have their place, but nothing can take the place of your eyes.Without going into detail (we've been over this before), my eyes tell me Forte will be an outstanding RB for a long time, & despite what amounts to a poor situation now, Chicago has the potential to be a nice situation in the not-too-distant future. Could I be wrong? Of course. NFL teams are wrong all the time & they have tons more resources than we do. That said, I like my chances given my history (not trying to sound pompous). I tend to be right when I have a strong opinion, but I'm not discrediting anyone who disagrees with my assessment of Forte. It's just a difference of opinion.In the end, we're all here to learn. If I'm wrong, I'll learn something. Like I've said many times, it would be a pretty dull hobby if we all thought the same thing.
Come on, LOL. You're claiming he produced because of his big workload, but his points-per-touch was outstanding. Of course he gets a point for a catch. That's my point. He's one of the best pass-catchers in the league. See the correlation? You don't get points for being named Larry, but you do a get a point for making a catch. The best pass-catchers generally have the most receptions. That should be pretty clear. Points-per-touch does have relevance. That's why I mentioned his points-per-touch when people bring up his workload. It's simple, really.But yes, stats are tremendously overrated when making evaluations, IMO. I like stats & all that to a degree, & use them to a degree, but personally, I think they can be especially misleading at times.
You're missing the point. In the NFL, players do not get awarded points per catch. When you are discussing Forte as an NFL player, points per touch is meaningless. Points-per-touch has NO relevance when discussing a player in NFL terms.When you say things like, look how many total yards he got, then you look at how many touches were required for him to get those yards, it becomes extremely apparent that Forte is an average at best NFL talent. There's a reason he wasn't a first round pick. There's a reason the Bears are giving a handful of plays to other RBs at times, to see what they have at the position. There's a reason Forte's YPC is among the worst in the league for starting RBS - and the reason for that is NOT the OL.
One of Forte's strengths is he excels at all aspects of playing the RB position. All the core skills. That's one reason I like him to stick around for a long time. I also like to remind people we play FF. I see people who say Forte only does well in PPR leagues because he catches dumpoffs. Well, that's kinda the point.I won't address the first part because SSOG already nailed it. As for the second part, there's a reason I have Chris Johnson is almost every dynasty league and I don't have Forte in any, and it's the same reason I sold Slaton in one of my primary leagues for 3x 1st rounders. When I look at Forte and Slaton, I see average to possibly good talents who are being valued like elite talents because of their numbers and production. In CJ3, I saw elite talent even on film. Forte is well-rounded, but to me nothing stands out. Even if he remains the starter for a long time, I see him as the kind of guy who is only productive because of situation - as we're seeing this year, when the OL and run game is struggling generally, he doesn't create opportunity by himself.I think where many people go wrong with Forte is believing he was only productive last season because of his workload, yet his PPR points-per-touch average was outstanding (better than Peterson & Jackson, for instance). Like with most player evaluations, stats need to take a back seat to your eyes. I compare this to people not liking Chris Johnson when he came out because of his size. I know numbers are important, & they have their place, but nothing can take the place of your eyes.Without going into detail (we've been over this before), my eyes tell me Forte will be an outstanding RB for a long time, & despite what amounts to a poor situation now, Chicago has the potential to be a nice situation in the not-too-distant future. Could I be wrong? Of course. NFL teams are wrong all the time & they have tons more resources than we do. That said, I like my chances given my history (not trying to sound pompous). I tend to be right when I have a strong opinion, but I'm not discrediting anyone who disagrees with my assessment of Forte. It's just a difference of opinion.In the end, we're all here to learn. If I'm wrong, I'll learn something. Like I've said many times, it would be a pretty dull hobby if we all thought the same thing.
Forte is one of the best pass-catchers in the league at the RB position. That means he's going to get more receptions than someone who's a mediocre pass-catcher. And he doesn't come out on passing down because he's a very good blocker. People are going to be surprised when they fix the OL because he has the skills to take advantage of a decent line. Like Bloom alluded to, he's got no chance on many of his runs. I get the feeling some people see the low YPC & believe he's a stiff. That couldn't be farther from the truth, IMO. Anyway, this won't be settled for awhile, but I do like Forte to rebound in 2010. Hopefully, the OL will be better & Cutler will settle down a little bit. Right now, the Bears are my pick for the offense most likely to have the biggest difference in production from 2009 to 2010. We'll see.
except running?
I'm not missing the point. We're playing FF. We get a point for a catch. It's really that simple. And I'm not sure how misleading a great pass-catcher having a lot of receptions is. NFL teams generally utilize their talent. Anyway, I know some people believe Forte is going to be replaced, but it's just not going to happen, IMO. There's lots of reasons the running game is failing, but it's not Forte's lack of talent. It's pretty obvious to me (& others). I believe Chicago knows what they have in Forte.
LOL
Apparently you never heard of Marshall Faulk, Brian Westbrook or Tiki Baber.
What reason was that? He was only 12 picks away from being in the first round. He was the next RB after Chris Johnson, and the RB before Ray Rice [who also wasn't drafted in the first...which apparently means a lot to you]. Desean Jackson was picked later than him. There are countless, countless crazy-talented NFL players not taken in the first round, many in the 2008 draft alone. Forte also came from Tulane, and second round for a non big time school is pretty impressive by itself.
Can you break down the handful of plays? And what would that mean anyway? Teams with talented RBs like the Colts and Cowboys give RBs not named Addai and Felix Jones the ball. Ray Rice has carries taken away from him. Many do in the NFL. Clearly there is other reason than talent to give the ball to other players. Regardless of this, Forte shares the ball less than probably 75% of starting RBs out there. I really don't know how you're making the above statement. Show the numbers though for the season and break it down.
Pure conjecture. I disagree and others who have seen Forte play a lot this season also disagree. He makes good plays when there is room. The OL is absolutely putrid. It's been said by many here on FBG and commentators for the games talk about it too occasionally.
Apparently when talking about Addai, it's OK to consider receptions as an indicator:
Nice work switz, continually adding to your great posts.
I agree. Forte is light years past an average RB. I kinda cringe when people say that, LOL. When you combine his talent, & what will eventually be a nice situation, you have a top-notch FF RB. And one who'll be around a long time.Absolutely no doubt about it, IMO.
