[DYNASTY] Matt Forte (1 Viewer)

[two_dollars]

Hmm.. I didn't know a top 5 FF performance was "mediocre." Learn something new everyday I guess.

 

[two_dollars]

Forte's production will decrease if he loses touches? So what? Every player's production decreases when they lose touches, LOL. I got news for you. Forte will still be a top RB even if he loses quite a few touches.That said, who's going to take touches away? What people fail to realize is he's EXACTLY the type of RB who isn't a flash in the pan. The kind of player who doesn't get replaced. The reason is he has no weaknesses & his straight running/catching skills are top-notch. Mama & Papa Forte made a helluva NFL RB. I was literally shocked the first time I saw him play at Tulane. He stuck out like a sore thumb (in a good way). Quite simply, he's an outstanding football player.

Maybe if he had gone to a bigger program like USC his "pedigree" would have been better since he would have been scouted much more, touted on national TV, and drafted higher. Like oh. I don't know.. Reggie Bush. How's his YPC doing?

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

I'd be curious to hear if any FBG's place much value on the metrics put out by football outsiders? As they relate to the argument at hand here with Forte, I'm specifically referring to DYAR.

From footballoutsiders.com:

Running backs are ranked according to DYAR, or Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement. This gives the value of the performance on plays where this running back carried/caught the ball compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb

For what it is worth, the table on the link provided ranks all RB's from 2008 with a minimum of 100 carries (49 RB's in that group) and Forte finished @ RB38.

I'm not saying that makes Forte a bad RB, or that DYAR translates into a draft list. However, it does move us in the direction of providing some objective evaluation that Forte was possibly just average last year. I'm sure a metric such as this won't go far in swaying the opinion of the 'my eyes tell me he is special' crowd, but I thought I'd throw it into the discussion.

To be fair to Forte, I think footballoutsiders also show objectively that CHI has a sub par run blocking offensive line as well.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol

DYAR also tells me that Mewelde Moore is better than AP. So is Sammy Morris.

 

[cstu]

Forte's production will decrease if he loses touches? So what? Every player's production decreases when they lose touches, LOL. I got news for you. Forte will still be a top RB even if he loses quite a few touches.That said, who's going to take touches away? What people fail to realize is he's EXACTLY the type of RB who isn't a flash in the pan. The kind of player who doesn't get replaced. The reason is he has no weaknesses & his straight running/catching skills are top-notch. Mama & Papa Forte made a helluva NFL RB. I was literally shocked the first time I saw him play at Tulane. He stuck out like a sore thumb (in a good way). Quite simply, he's an outstanding football player.

Maybe if he had gone to a bigger program like USC his "pedigree" would have been better since he would have been scouted much more, touted on national TV, and drafted higher. Like oh. I don't know.. Reggie Bush. How's his YPC doing?

 

[the_sig]

I'd be curious to hear if any FBG's place much value on the metrics put out by football outsiders? As they relate to the argument at hand here with Forte, I'm specifically referring to DYAR.

From footballoutsiders.com:

Running backs are ranked according to DYAR, or Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement. This gives the value of the performance on plays where this running back carried/caught the ball compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb

For what it is worth, the table on the link provided ranks all RB's from 2008 with a minimum of 100 carries (49 RB's in that group) and Forte finished @ RB38.

I'm not saying that makes Forte a bad RB, or that DYAR translates into a draft list. However, it does move us in the direction of providing some objective evaluation that Forte was possibly just average last year. I'm sure a metric such as this won't go far in swaying the opinion of the 'my eyes tell me he is special' crowd, but I thought I'd throw it into the discussion.

To be fair to Forte, I think footballoutsiders also show objectively that CHI has a sub par run blocking offensive line as well.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol

DYAR also tells me that Mewelde Moore is better than AP. So is Sammy Morris.

No. But it does tell you that Moore and Morris were effective with the limited touches they had.

 

[womb]

I'd be curious to hear if any FBG's place much value on the metrics put out by football outsiders? As they relate to the argument at hand here with Forte, I'm specifically referring to DYAR.

From footballoutsiders.com:

Running backs are ranked according to DYAR, or Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement. This gives the value of the performance on plays where this running back carried/caught the ball compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb

For what it is worth, the table on the link provided ranks all RB's from 2008 with a minimum of 100 carries (49 RB's in that group) and Forte finished @ RB38.

I'm not saying that makes Forte a bad RB, or that DYAR translates into a draft list. However, it does move us in the direction of providing some objective evaluation that Forte was possibly just average last year. I'm sure a metric such as this won't go far in swaying the opinion of the 'my eyes tell me he is special' crowd, but I thought I'd throw it into the discussion.

To be fair to Forte, I think footballoutsiders also show objectively that CHI has a sub par run blocking offensive line as well.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol

DYAR also tells me that Mewelde Moore is better than AP. So is Sammy Morris.

No. But it does tell you that Moore and Morris were effective with the limited touches they had.

How would you then translate this valuable perspective that you just gave into a drafting strategy, say in dynasty leagues, (I believe this thread is about drafting in those leagues)? I am very curious.

 

[the_sig]

I'd be curious to hear if any FBG's place much value on the metrics put out by football outsiders? As they relate to the argument at hand here with Forte, I'm specifically referring to DYAR.

From footballoutsiders.com:

Running backs are ranked according to DYAR, or Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement. This gives the value of the performance on plays where this running back carried/caught the ball compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb

For what it is worth, the table on the link provided ranks all RB's from 2008 with a minimum of 100 carries (49 RB's in that group) and Forte finished @ RB38.

I'm not saying that makes Forte a bad RB, or that DYAR translates into a draft list. However, it does move us in the direction of providing some objective evaluation that Forte was possibly just average last year. I'm sure a metric such as this won't go far in swaying the opinion of the 'my eyes tell me he is special' crowd, but I thought I'd throw it into the discussion.

To be fair to Forte, I think footballoutsiders also show objectively that CHI has a sub par run blocking offensive line as well.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol

DYAR also tells me that Mewelde Moore is better than AP. So is Sammy Morris.

No. But it does tell you that Moore and Morris were effective with the limited touches they had.

How would you then translate this valuable perspective that you just gave into a drafting strategy, say in dynasty leagues, (I believe this thread is about drafting in those leagues)? I am very curious.

From my perspective, I try to use as much information as possible to make my decisions. A metric like DYAR would just be one ingredient in the recipe. I have no initail dynasty drafts upcoming, so I can't say where Forte would settle in on my draft list. Forte has positives to consider (apparent durability, use as an every down back, etc.) and also some less than positive things to consider (does DYAR show he was just average at RB, perhaps just an 'accumulator'?). I don't know. I'd have to answer those before I could say where I'd rank Forte in an intial dynasty draft. I can say this. In an initial dynasty draft, I'd certainly want my 1st round choice to be for a guy I 'covet'. A guy I'd be peeved if I didn't have, and would likely be too expensive to acquire post-draft.

I did have an initial dynasty draft last year. A guy I had to have that I took in rd 1 then was MJD. I'm happy with that pick. By the way, I also picked up Forte later in that draft as well. I can't say that I'm a great evaluator of rookie talent to have taken Forte when I did, but I was guided by Matt Waldman's Rookie Scouting Portfolio who was higher than many on Forte's skills. Just part of using as much info as available to make your own decisions.

 

[Burning Sensation]

I'd be curious to hear if any FBG's place much value on the metrics put out by football outsiders? As they relate to the argument at hand here with Forte, I'm specifically referring to DYAR.

From footballoutsiders.com:

Running backs are ranked according to DYAR, or Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement. This gives the value of the performance on plays where this running back carried/caught the ball compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb

For what it is worth, the table on the link provided ranks all RB's from 2008 with a minimum of 100 carries (49 RB's in that group) and Forte finished @ RB38.

I'm not saying that makes Forte a bad RB, or that DYAR translates into a draft list. However, it does move us in the direction of providing some objective evaluation that Forte was possibly just average last year. I'm sure a metric such as this won't go far in swaying the opinion of the 'my eyes tell me he is special' crowd, but I thought I'd throw it into the discussion.

To be fair to Forte, I think footballoutsiders also show objectively that CHI has a sub par run blocking offensive line as well.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol

DYAR also tells me that Mewelde Moore is better than AP. So is Sammy Morris.

No. But it does tell you that Moore and Morris were effective with the limited touches they had.

How would you then translate this valuable perspective that you just gave into a drafting strategy, say in dynasty leagues, (I believe this thread is about drafting in those leagues)? I am very curious.

From my perspective, I try to use as much information as possible to make my decisions. A metric like DYAR would just be one ingredient in the recipe. I have no initail dynasty drafts upcoming, so I can't say where Forte would settle in on my draft list. Forte has positives to consider (apparent durability, use as an every down back, etc.) and also some less than positive things to consider (does DYAR show he was just average at RB, perhaps just an 'accumulator'?). I don't know. I'd have to answer those before I could say where I'd rank Forte in an intial dynasty draft. I can say this. In an initial dynasty draft, I'd certainly want my 1st round choice to be for a guy I 'covet'. A guy I'd be peeved if I didn't have, and would likely be too expensive to acquire post-draft.

I did have an initial dynasty draft last year. A guy I had to have that I took in rd 1 then was MJD. I'm happy with that pick. By the way, I also picked up Forte later in that draft as well. I can't say that I'm a great evaluator of rookie talent to have taken Forte when I did, but I was guided by Matt Waldman's Rookie Scouting Portfolio who was higher than many on Forte's skills. Just part of using as much info as available to make your own decisions.

How many players like this are there? I only count five, so at some point, you are going to have to take someone else, and Forte is arguably just as low of a risk than the next 6-10 players.

 

[womb]

I'd be curious to hear if any FBG's place much value on the metrics put out by football outsiders? As they relate to the argument at hand here with Forte, I'm specifically referring to DYAR.

From footballoutsiders.com:

Running backs are ranked according to DYAR, or Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement. This gives the value of the performance on plays where this running back carried/caught the ball compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb

For what it is worth, the table on the link provided ranks all RB's from 2008 with a minimum of 100 carries (49 RB's in that group) and Forte finished @ RB38.

I'm not saying that makes Forte a bad RB, or that DYAR translates into a draft list. However, it does move us in the direction of providing some objective evaluation that Forte was possibly just average last year. I'm sure a metric such as this won't go far in swaying the opinion of the 'my eyes tell me he is special' crowd, but I thought I'd throw it into the discussion.

To be fair to Forte, I think footballoutsiders also show objectively that CHI has a sub par run blocking offensive line as well.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol

DYAR also tells me that Mewelde Moore is better than AP. So is Sammy Morris.

No. But it does tell you that Moore and Morris were effective with the limited touches they had.

How would you then translate this valuable perspective that you just gave into a drafting strategy, say in dynasty leagues, (I believe this thread is about drafting in those leagues)? I am very curious.

From my perspective, I try to use as much information as possible to make my decisions. A metric like DYAR would just be one ingredient in the recipe. I have no initail dynasty drafts upcoming, so I can't say where Forte would settle in on my draft list. Forte has positives to consider (apparent durability, use as an every down back, etc.) and also some less than positive things to consider (does DYAR show he was just average at RB, perhaps just an 'accumulator'?). I don't know. I'd have to answer those before I could say where I'd rank Forte in an intial dynasty draft. I can say this. In an initial dynasty draft, I'd certainly want my 1st round choice to be for a guy I 'covet'. A guy I'd be peeved if I didn't have, and would likely be too expensive to acquire post-draft.

I did have an initial dynasty draft last year. A guy I had to have that I took in rd 1 then was MJD. I'm happy with that pick. By the way, I also picked up Forte later in that draft as well. I can't say that I'm a great evaluator of rookie talent to have taken Forte when I did, but I was guided by Matt Waldman's Rookie Scouting Portfolio who was higher than many on Forte's skills. Just part of using as much info as available to make your own decisions.

I am sorry, but I fail to understand you. (I fail to understand EBF as well but that is not the point as I would want to see how to utilize this tool as a drafting aid and for this specific purpose I want to see something wrong about Forte.)The List is below. I striked out the guys I would not touch with a yardstick at where they are or even 10 spots below. Bolded are the guys I would jump on at least 15 spots above. I will leave the rest alone and not get into details. 25 out of 40 are significantly out of place no matter how efficient and what not. I can argue with at least half of the remaining 15 as well, but it will force digression.

1. D.Williams 2. B.Jacobs 3. C.Portis 4. D.Ward 5. T.Jones

6. M.Turner 7. C.Johnson 8. S.Slaton 9. S.Morris 10. L.McClain

11. P.Thomas 12. B.Westbrook 13. L.White 14. M.Moore 15. R.Brown

16. J.Stewart 17. A.Peterson 18. M.Jones Drew 19. F.Jackson 20. L.Tomlinson

21. W.McGahee 22. D.McAllister 23. K.Smith 24. M.Lynch 25. F.Gore

26. S.Jackson 27. J.Addai 28. W.Parker 29. E.James 30. M.Barber

31. W.Dunn 32. M.Morris 33. R.Williams 34. J.Lewis 35. C.Taylor

36. R.Rice 37. D.Rhodes 38. M.Forte 39. E.Graham 40. D.McFadden

Now, I have that in one hand, and then you say you coveted MJD as a had to have in round 1 last year. So, I looked at the same stats from 2007. He is ranked at 25 - not too shabby. He shares carries with Fred Taylor - but perhaps you saw Taylor leave this year. And ranked way beneath the likes of Addai @ 5, Maroney @ 7. Does not seem right.

All in all what I am trying to say is that this method is flawed to evaluate players.

 

[the_sig]

I'd be curious to hear if any FBG's place much value on the metrics put out by football outsiders? As they relate to the argument at hand here with Forte, I'm specifically referring to DYAR.

From footballoutsiders.com:

Running backs are ranked according to DYAR, or Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement. This gives the value of the performance on plays where this running back carried/caught the ball compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb

For what it is worth, the table on the link provided ranks all RB's from 2008 with a minimum of 100 carries (49 RB's in that group) and Forte finished @ RB38.

I'm not saying that makes Forte a bad RB, or that DYAR translates into a draft list. However, it does move us in the direction of providing some objective evaluation that Forte was possibly just average last year. I'm sure a metric such as this won't go far in swaying the opinion of the 'my eyes tell me he is special' crowd, but I thought I'd throw it into the discussion.

To be fair to Forte, I think footballoutsiders also show objectively that CHI has a sub par run blocking offensive line as well.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol

DYAR also tells me that Mewelde Moore is better than AP. So is Sammy Morris.

No. But it does tell you that Moore and Morris were effective with the limited touches they had.

How would you then translate this valuable perspective that you just gave into a drafting strategy, say in dynasty leagues, (I believe this thread is about drafting in those leagues)? I am very curious.

From my perspective, I try to use as much information as possible to make my decisions. A metric like DYAR would just be one ingredient in the recipe. I have no initail dynasty drafts upcoming, so I can't say where Forte would settle in on my draft list. Forte has positives to consider (apparent durability, use as an every down back, etc.) and also some less than positive things to consider (does DYAR show he was just average at RB, perhaps just an 'accumulator'?). I don't know. I'd have to answer those before I could say where I'd rank Forte in an intial dynasty draft. I can say this. In an initial dynasty draft, I'd certainly want my 1st round choice to be for a guy I 'covet'. A guy I'd be peeved if I didn't have, and would likely be too expensive to acquire post-draft.

I did have an initial dynasty draft last year. A guy I had to have that I took in rd 1 then was MJD. I'm happy with that pick. By the way, I also picked up Forte later in that draft as well. I can't say that I'm a great evaluator of rookie talent to have taken Forte when I did, but I was guided by Matt Waldman's Rookie Scouting Portfolio who was higher than many on Forte's skills. Just part of using as much info as available to make your own decisions.

How many players like this are there? I only count five, so at some point, you are going to have to take someone else, and Forte is arguably just as low of a risk than the next 6-10 players.

I don't disagree with you, at some point Forte gets slotted in as he is just as attractive as the players beside him on the list. You say you count 5, great. I haven't recently gone through the exercise of ranking dynasty players. Maybe he slots in the 6-10 range, I don't know. I simply brought up the DYAR metric to attempt to add information to the discussion.

 

[the_sig]

I'd be curious to hear if any FBG's place much value on the metrics put out by football outsiders? As they relate to the argument at hand here with Forte, I'm specifically referring to DYAR.

From footballoutsiders.com:

Running backs are ranked according to DYAR, or Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement. This gives the value of the performance on plays where this running back carried/caught the ball compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb

For what it is worth, the table on the link provided ranks all RB's from 2008 with a minimum of 100 carries (49 RB's in that group) and Forte finished @ RB38.

I'm not saying that makes Forte a bad RB, or that DYAR translates into a draft list. However, it does move us in the direction of providing some objective evaluation that Forte was possibly just average last year. I'm sure a metric such as this won't go far in swaying the opinion of the 'my eyes tell me he is special' crowd, but I thought I'd throw it into the discussion.

To be fair to Forte, I think footballoutsiders also show objectively that CHI has a sub par run blocking offensive line as well.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol

DYAR also tells me that Mewelde Moore is better than AP. So is Sammy Morris.

No. But it does tell you that Moore and Morris were effective with the limited touches they had.

How would you then translate this valuable perspective that you just gave into a drafting strategy, say in dynasty leagues, (I believe this thread is about drafting in those leagues)? I am very curious.

From my perspective, I try to use as much information as possible to make my decisions. A metric like DYAR would just be one ingredient in the recipe. I have no initail dynasty drafts upcoming, so I can't say where Forte would settle in on my draft list. Forte has positives to consider (apparent durability, use as an every down back, etc.) and also some less than positive things to consider (does DYAR show he was just average at RB, perhaps just an 'accumulator'?). I don't know. I'd have to answer those before I could say where I'd rank Forte in an intial dynasty draft. I can say this. In an initial dynasty draft, I'd certainly want my 1st round choice to be for a guy I 'covet'. A guy I'd be peeved if I didn't have, and would likely be too expensive to acquire post-draft.

I did have an initial dynasty draft last year. A guy I had to have that I took in rd 1 then was MJD. I'm happy with that pick. By the way, I also picked up Forte later in that draft as well. I can't say that I'm a great evaluator of rookie talent to have taken Forte when I did, but I was guided by Matt Waldman's Rookie Scouting Portfolio who was higher than many on Forte's skills. Just part of using as much info as available to make your own decisions.

I am sorry, but I fail to understand you. (I fail to understand EBF as well but that is not the point as I would want to see how to utilize this tool as a drafting aid and for this specific purpose I want to see something wrong about Forte.)The List is below. I striked out the guys I would not touch with a yardstick at where they are or even 10 spots below. Bolded are the guys I would jump on at least 15 spots above. I will leave the rest alone and not get into details. 25 out of 40 are significantly out of place no matter how efficient and what not. I can argue with at least half of the remaining 15 as well, but it will force digression.

1. D.Williams 2. B.Jacobs 3. C.Portis 4. D.Ward 5. T.Jones

6. M.Turner 7. C.Johnson 8. S.Slaton 9. S.Morris 10. L.McClain

11. P.Thomas 12. B.Westbrook 13. L.White 14. M.Moore 15. R.Brown

16. J.Stewart 17. A.Peterson 18. M.Jones Drew 19. F.Jackson 20. L.Tomlinson

21. W.McGahee 22. D.McAllister 23. K.Smith 24. M.Lynch 25. F.Gore

26. S.Jackson 27. J.Addai 28. W.Parker 29. E.James 30. M.Barber

31. W.Dunn 32. M.Morris 33. R.Williams 34. J.Lewis 35. C.Taylor

36. R.Rice 37. D.Rhodes 38. M.Forte 39. E.Graham 40. D.McFadden

Now, I have that in one hand, and then you say you coveted MJD as a had to have in round 1 last year. So, I looked at the same stats from 2007. He is ranked at 25 - not too shabby. He shares carries with Fred Taylor - but perhaps you saw Taylor leave this year. And ranked way beneath the likes of Addai @ 5, Maroney @ 7. Does not seem right.

All in all what I am trying to say is that this method is flawed to evaluate players.

:( If you think the DYAR metric is flawed, so be it. I won't argue with you. I think it has some merit in evaluating a players value above replacement. YMMV. Like I said, just one of many ingredients.In my original post I stated it doesn't correlate into a draft list, so I'm not sure why your trying to force it there. I realize we are talking about dynasty drafts here, I was just trying to add some objective data that may show Forte was average last year. I didn't say anything about taking the DYAR list straight to your draft and going at it. That'd be foolish.

 

[loose circuits]

just listening to Jerry Angelo being interviewed by PK and T-Rock on MTC. Describing Forte, Angelo used words like intangibles, leadership, work ethic, dependable, respect (players as well as coaches), etc...

Did not sound like a guy that will be entertaining replacing his franchise back anytime soon.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

just listening to Jerry Angelo being interviewed by PK and T-Rock on MTC. Describing Forte, Angelo used words like intangibles, leadership, work ethic, dependable, respect (players as well as coaches), etc...Did not sound like a guy that will be entertaining replacing his franchise back anytime soon.

Not to be snide, but that doesn't mean Forte isn't replaceable, or that Angelo won't look to replace Forte at some point.I think the main point of this thread is that Forte is a replaceable talent, not an elite athlete. Opinions on that premise vary.

 

[loose circuits]

just listening to Jerry Angelo being interviewed by PK and T-Rock on MTC. Describing Forte, Angelo used words like intangibles, leadership, work ethic, dependable, respect (players as well as coaches), etc...Did not sound like a guy that will be entertaining replacing his franchise back anytime soon.

Not to be snide, but that doesn't mean Forte isn't replaceable, or that Angelo won't look to replace Forte at some point.I think the main point of this thread is that Forte is a replaceable talent, not an elite athlete. Opinions on that premise vary.

well when you hear the way that Angelo described Forte (including his tone), it almost sounds like endearment, I think you would change your tune. The Bears don't believe Forte is "replaceable" and that's all that matters. There are absolutely no signs of that from anyone near the Bears. Listen to the way the guy talks about him before you assume such things because his 40 time was .02 seconds too slow or his vertical was 2" short to be considered an elite athlete. Sometimes people have certain 'intangibles' (which Angelo talked about when referring to Forte) that make them just as special as the Adrian Peterson and Calvin Johnson's of the world.Forte is gonna continue to get a heavy workload for the next 3-4 years or as long as he stays healthy

 

[EBF]

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

just listening to Jerry Angelo being interviewed by PK and T-Rock on MTC. Describing Forte, Angelo used words like intangibles, leadership, work ethic, dependable, respect (players as well as coaches), etc...

Did not sound like a guy that will be entertaining replacing his franchise back anytime soon.

Not to be snide, but that doesn't mean Forte isn't replaceable, or that Angelo won't look to replace Forte at some point.I think the main point of this thread is that Forte is a replaceable talent, not an elite athlete. Opinions on that premise vary.

well when you hear the way that Angelo described Forte (including his tone), it almost sounds like endearment, I think you would change your tune. The Bears don't believe Forte is "replaceable" and that's all that matters. There are absolutely no signs of that from anyone near the Bears. Listen to the way the guy talks about him before you assume such things because his 40 time was .02 seconds too slow or his vertical was 2" short to be considered an elite athlete. Sometimes people have certain 'intangibles' (which Angelo talked about when referring to Forte) that make them just as special as the Adrian Peterson and Calvin Johnson's of the world.Forte is gonna continue to get a heavy workload for the next 3-4 years or as long as he stays healthy

I make no assumptions.As long as the bolded stays true, Forte will be a strong fantasy RB.

Most of the time the NFL is a "what have you done for me lately" kind of business. I'm not saying Forte won't be effective, but "intangibles" only get you so far. Forte is gold in a redraft. Maybe gold through 2010. Outside of that, things get murky.

Personally, I am not overly impressed with Forte's on-field performance. He looks "good". There is nothing wrong with good. Dom Davis was good. Rudi Johnson was good. They were both very useful fantasy RBs for a few years. A good RB can be a great fantasy RB. Forte was a great fantasy RB last year.

By the same token, I can be persuaded that Forte is more than good.... but it'll take a more impressive performance than last year's.

We'll see what happens.

 

[Dave Larkin]

Forte burst onto the scene as a rookie, and I completely agree that in PPR leagues Forte has the ability to be a beast of a player. You have to examine a player in the system he plays in and the offensive scheme of his team. The Bears offense is mediocre at best, and until they get a legitimate number one receiver (Jeremy Maclin, anyone?) Forte will be down in my books. As of yet, I haven't ranked my players for dynasty leagues, but when I do, I won't be jumping on Forte in the top ten.

 

[loose circuits]

With Cutler to take pressure off the D, how much does Forte's value increase?

 

[EBF]

More TD opportunities, fewer carries and catches.

 

[Football Jones]

I'm not sure how much Cutler, alone, will improve Forte's stock. It's a great start, tho. They still need improvement from the OL. Maybe Pace will help.

I expect another stellar FF season from Forte. And he could even be more productive with Cutler (obviously).

 

[Burning Sensation]

More TD opportunities, fewer carries and catches.

Dont forget higher YPC.

 

[Liquid Tension]

just listening to Jerry Angelo being interviewed by PK and T-Rock on MTC. Describing Forte, Angelo used words like intangibles, leadership, work ethic, dependable, respect (players as well as coaches), etc...Did not sound like a guy that will be entertaining replacing his franchise back anytime soon.

No offense, but I could fit that criteria...where is the word talented?

 

[Liquid Tension]

More TD opportunities, fewer carries and catches.

A QB who can throw the ball downfield and keep the safeties (and linebackers) off the LOS helps the running attack. This is the issue with the antithesis of Cutler, Chad Pennington. The running attack under Chad is hurt a lot by his weak arm. I do agree you will see less catches for Forte and probably less carries, but they should be more productive touches.Olsen gets a bump.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

More TD opportunities, fewer carries and catches.

Dont forget higher YPC.

And barring trading again and getting someone like Crabtree or Maclin Forte is still the best WR on this team, Wouldnt surprise me in the least to see him lead the team in catches again.

 

[BoulderBob]

Teams could stack to the box due to Orton's lack of accuracy on throws over 15 yards. Excellent news for Forte owners, along with the Bears bringing in 2 solid tackles.

 

[lyon812]

At least we'll get to see the validity of many people's concerns that Forte would fall off if there was any sort of upgrade on offense.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

At least we'll get to see the validity of many people's concerns that Forte would fall off if there was any sort of upgrade on offense.

Im how can two OLineman and a huge upgrade at QB hurt?????The offense overall will be better. Including his YPC

 

[JaYz0618]

Ive never seen so much hate on a guy who was playing behind a bad offensive line (basically the same offensive line that cedric benson couldnt do anything with) and produced the stats that he did in his rookie year. Ive seen a lot of talk about YPC, and such on here. How is that relevant in fantasy ? The bottom line is he is a major target in the receving game and is the go to guy in the running game, he doesnt have the rbbc vulture stealing carries or even worse, goal line duty. Chris Williams wasnt healthy last year and we signed Pace, and we managed to add a pro bowl quarterback. Teams will have to respect the pass a little more, which will open up some run lanes for Forte.

I see big things for Forte this year, and in ppr, there arent many guys id take ahead of him.

And i watched every game of his last year, he doesnt dance around like Cedric loved to do. He may not be as flashy as chris johnson or mjd, but production is all i care about.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I think it's a very open question as to whether or not a strong armed QBs like Cutler is going to help out Forte's numbers. And that includes his YPC. Has anyone done any research on this question?

 

[CentralPA]

If obtaining Cutler manages to downgrade him it won't be very much. Better O-Line, better QB, not as much attention is going to be paid to Forte as it once was. Granted he will probably lose touches but it won't be much and I think he'll get better production from it. But it's ? what this does until they get back out on the field. Being an optimitic Forte owner I hope and think it's a big upgrade, I traded Gore away to keep him.

 

[lyon812]

At least we'll get to see the validity of many people's concerns that Forte would fall off if there was any sort of upgrade on offense.

Im how can two OLineman and a huge upgrade at QB hurt?????The offense overall will be better. Including his YPC

Let me rephrase:A lot of individuals have downgraded Forte because of his extremely high carry/touch total and the lack of surrounding offensive talent. Thus, it would stand to reason that having alternate threats--such as upgrades at QB or WR, and the continued development of Olsen--would act as a sieve. They would siphon offense/yards/touches away from Forte, rather than incrementing his totals. Double thus, I think it's nice that we'll actually get to see which camp is valid/correct: Whether offensive upgrades will increase Forte's numbers, or decrease them. Sorry if my comment was confusing.

 

[DrJ]

You could have actually said pretty much the same thing about Tomlinson in his rookie year. Started out with a few nice games and then only stayed a top RB by virtue of an obscene amount of touches. He averaged a pitiful 3.6 YPC his rookie year and really did nothing down the stretch.

Not saying Forte is Tomlinson, but you're drawing a few too many conclusions based on yards per carry and yards per touch when the guy played in a terrible offense and was the focus of everyone.

 

[EBF]

You could have actually said pretty much the same thing about Tomlinson in his rookie year. Started out with a few nice games and then only stayed a top RB by virtue of an obscene amount of touches. He averaged a pitiful 3.6 YPC his rookie year and really did nothing down the stretch.Not saying Forte is Tomlinson, but you're drawing a few too many conclusions based on yards per carry and yards per touch when the guy played in a terrible offense and was the focus of everyone.

I've already explained why it's probably not a good comparison.Tomlinson was a top 5 pick with freakish combine numbers.Forte was a second round pick with middling combine numbers.With LT, there were objective reasons to believe that he was an elite talent despite his modest rookie YPC.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I think it's a very open question as to whether or not a strong armed QBs like Cutler is going to help out Forte's numbers. And that includes his YPC. Has anyone done any research on this question?

This was quick and dirty... and done a long time ago... and begs chicken-and-egg type questions, but...A YOY improvement of one yard/pass is also worth about .19 yards/rush.A YOY improvement of one yard/rush is also worth about .73 yards/pass.(At least that's what I think my notes say!)

 

[loose circuits]

I think it's a very open question as to whether or not a strong armed QBs like Cutler is going to help out Forte's numbers. And that includes his YPC. Has anyone done any research on this question?

This was quick and dirty... and done a long time ago... and begs chicken-and-egg type questions, but...A YOY improvement of one yard/pass is also worth about .19 yards/rush.A YOY improvement of one yard/rush is also worth about .73 yards/pass.(At least that's what I think my notes say!)

be interested to see the TD numbers compared to YOY improvement...

 

[DrJ]

You could have actually said pretty much the same thing about Tomlinson in his rookie year. Started out with a few nice games and then only stayed a top RB by virtue of an obscene amount of touches. He averaged a pitiful 3.6 YPC his rookie year and really did nothing down the stretch.Not saying Forte is Tomlinson, but you're drawing a few too many conclusions based on yards per carry and yards per touch when the guy played in a terrible offense and was the focus of everyone.

I've already explained why it's probably not a good comparison.Tomlinson was a top 5 pick with freakish combine numbers.Forte was a second round pick with middling combine numbers.With LT, there were objective reasons to believe that he was an elite talent despite his modest rookie YPC.

There's reasons to believe that Forte will be despite his combine numbers as well. The biggest asset that he had compared to the past few RB's we've had here is his vision. Rather than piling into the back of OL or going down easy like T Jones and C Benson liked to do, he actually made some cuts and made things happen early in the year. Defenses eventually started keying on him though because Orton was unable to deliver a consistent deep ball and take any pressure off of him and there eventually weren't many holes to be found. There's not much use in comparing his YPC to T Jones either, because the offense was almost entirely different. It was far better from both an run blocking and deep threat standpoint. The offense he had this season was pitiful and wasn't scaring anyone beyond 20 yards. There really isn't much information in your post besides "He averaged 3.9 YPC and didn't get drafted in the first round, he must suck". Cherry picking reasons why YPC is relevant for one player and not another doesn't really make a lot of sense.

 

[loose circuits]

There really isn't much information in your post besides "He averaged 3.9 YPC, had a poor broad jump at the combine and didn't get drafted in the first round, he must suck". Cherry picking reasons why YPC is relevant for one player and not another doesn't really make a lot of sense.

had to edit this a bit, it really comes down to those 3 things v the tape, intangibles, and vision. I'll take the latter and end up going on my way cause EBF ducks and dodges better than anyone I've seen in my message board history. He has a response for everything. I respect it because he backs it up with a lot of thought, but respectfully disagree because we have fundamentally different ways of evaluating players.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I think it's a very open question as to whether or not a strong armed QBs like Cutler is going to help out Forte's numbers. And that includes his YPC. Has anyone done any research on this question?

This was quick and dirty... and done a long time ago... and begs chicken-and-egg type questions, but...A YOY improvement of one yard/pass is also worth about .19 yards/rush.A YOY improvement of one yard/rush is also worth about .73 yards/pass.(At least that's what I think my notes say!)

Most of the studies I've seen or conducted show little to no interaction between the passing and rushimg game. I'd be surprised to see those results.

 

[kurtrudder]

At least we'll get to see the validity of many people's concerns that Forte would fall off if there was any sort of upgrade on offense.

Im how can two OLineman and a huge upgrade at QB hurt?????The offense overall will be better. Including his YPC

Let me rephrase:A lot of individuals have downgraded Forte because of his extremely high carry/touch total and the lack of surrounding offensive talent. Thus, it would stand to reason that having alternate threats--such as upgrades at QB or WR, and the continued development of Olsen--would act as a sieve. They would siphon offense/yards/touches away from Forte, rather than incrementing his totals. Double thus, I think it's nice that we'll actually get to see which camp is valid/correct: Whether offensive upgrades will increase Forte's numbers, or decrease them. Sorry if my comment was confusing.

Your original comment wasn't confusing. I'm with you, as I said in another thread, Forte seems to be one top 10 player that is really polarizing the FF community heading into 2009 and adding Cutler to their offense should go a long way to sorting the facts from the myths. I'm very interested to see how Forte's touches/production play out in 2009. Personally I find myself agreeing with EBF on this occasion, less touches/carries for Forte. YPC should improve and he should have an improved chance to equal or surpass his 12 TD's from 2008.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Most of the studies I've seen or conducted show little to no interaction between the passing and rushimg game. I'd be surprised to see those results.

Probably wrong then. Carry on.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Most of the studies I've seen or conducted show little to no interaction between the passing and rushimg game. I'd be surprised to see those results.

Probably wrong then. Carry on.

I'm open to the possibility that something's up. I'll dig into this a little more at some point soon, I hope.

 

[DrJ]

I think it's a very open question as to whether or not a strong armed QBs like Cutler is going to help out Forte's numbers. And that includes his YPC. Has anyone done any research on this question?

This was quick and dirty... and done a long time ago... and begs chicken-and-egg type questions, but...A YOY improvement of one yard/pass is also worth about .19 yards/rush.A YOY improvement of one yard/rush is also worth about .73 yards/pass.(At least that's what I think my notes say!)

Most of the studies I've seen or conducted show little to no interaction between the passing and rushimg game. I'd be surprised to see those results.

It would probably have to depend on the degree of the passing impairment I would guess. As long as there's some threat that a team can throw the ball deep, it may not impair the RB very much. With the Bears last season, especially in the 2nd half, there was no threat of that whatsoever. You can't be incapable of exploiting teams daring you to beat them long all day and have room for the RB to go anywhere.On the other end of things, the Bears D was pretty effective stopping the run in most games during the season because they were stacking the box and trying to make teams beat them through the air. When they decided not to do that against Green Bay, Ryan Grant ran all over them. It makes it a lot easier to defend the run if the QB isn't capable of making many deep plays.

 

[lyon812]

At least we'll get to see the validity of many people's concerns that Forte would fall off if there was any sort of upgrade on offense.

Im how can two OLineman and a huge upgrade at QB hurt?????The offense overall will be better. Including his YPC

Let me rephrase:A lot of individuals have downgraded Forte because of his extremely high carry/touch total and the lack of surrounding offensive talent. Thus, it would stand to reason that having alternate threats--such as upgrades at QB or WR, and the continued development of Olsen--would act as a sieve. They would siphon offense/yards/touches away from Forte, rather than incrementing his totals. Double thus, I think it's nice that we'll actually get to see which camp is valid/correct: Whether offensive upgrades will increase Forte's numbers, or decrease them. Sorry if my comment was confusing.

Your original comment wasn't confusing. I'm with you, as I said in another thread, Forte seems to be one top 10 player that is really polarizing the FF community heading into 2009 and adding Cutler to their offense should go a long way to sorting the facts from the myths. I'm very interested to see how Forte's touches/production play out in 2009. Personally I find myself agreeing with EBF on this occasion, less touches/carries for Forte. YPC should improve and he should have an improved chance to equal or surpass his 12 TD's from 2008.

Well said, and aye, you hit it on the head. It's the resolution to the polarization that intrigues me most. =) As someone with no vested interest in the Bears/Forte, I find it interesting.A key question that people seem to differ on is: Would the presumed decrease in touches be compensated for elsewhere? I think what could hurt him the most is Cutler's ability to go deep. How many of Forte's receptions were outlets because of Orton's weaker arm? That isn't rhetorical.Further, how many of the passes that went to Forte will go to Hester or Olson now? What about Bennett, if he turns out to be solid?

 

[ImTheScientist]

Forte's value just shot up!

 

[Matt Waldman]

Count me among the contingent who currently don't believe the Bears wide receivers will significantly improve statistically with Cutler in the fold. They still have to run the right routes and get open. Cutler may be more aggressive on the deep ball and hit on 1-2 more per game. Unless it's the same guy getting those catches, I don't think we're going to see s 32-reception 5-7 score difference with one receiver. Maybe spread out among 3-5 guys...

If anything, a more aggressive Cutler should set up the ground game more first and goal situations and as EBF stated, more scores for Forte. I also agree we'll see a higher YPC average from Forte with an opportunity for more big-play runs. I'd definitely keep Forte in my top 10, but I"m not sure he's a top three guy for me.

 

[switz]

With a 3.9 average he can't really be that good. I mean he had John St. Clair ahead of him and Rashied Davis keeping defenses honest and he put up a 3.9? Terrible. Walter Payton never put up 3.9. He put up 3.5 as a rookie, but not 3.9.Ladainian Tomlinson didn't run for 3.9 as a rookie either. He did in 2004, but as a rookie he put up 3.6. Of course he was on a team with a terrible line and not much of a passing game. Really I think it was just the 398 touches he got that year that allowed him to put up any numbers.

LT was a top 5 pick with ideal combine numbers.Forte was a second round pick with mediocre combine numbers.

What people are missing is that Benson, reportedly a BUST, did just as well as Forte did. Benson just had fewer carries.I don't just look at Forte's YPC, when watching him, he just looked like he didn't know where to run half the time, and he's SLOW.

 

[Instinctive]

With a 3.9 average he can't really be that good. I mean he had John St. Clair ahead of him and Rashied Davis keeping defenses honest and he put up a 3.9? Terrible.

Walter Payton never put up 3.9. He put up 3.5 as a rookie, but not 3.9.

Ladainian Tomlinson didn't run for 3.9 as a rookie either. He did in 2004, but as a rookie he put up 3.6. Of course he was on a team with a terrible line and not much of a passing game. Really I think it was just the 398 touches he got that year that allowed him to put up any numbers.

LT was a top 5 pick with ideal combine numbers.Forte was a second round pick with mediocre combine numbers.

What people are missing is that Benson, reportedly a BUST, did just as well as Forte did. Benson just had fewer carries.I don't just look at Forte's YPC, when watching him, he just looked like he didn't know where to run half the time, and he's SLOW.

Thank you for saying that. He simply doesn't look that good. He takes the hole he is given, and goes through it. He doesn't have a very exciting juke or cutback, his stiff arm is not going to put fear into any defender...and he simply isn't going to outrun anybody.That said, if he keep sgetting such a high volume of work, he could easily be close to Rudi Johnson. Which isn't bad at all. Just don't confuse talent with opportunity.

 

[DrJ]

With a 3.9 average he can't really be that good. I mean he had John St. Clair ahead of him and Rashied Davis keeping defenses honest and he put up a 3.9? Terrible. Walter Payton never put up 3.9. He put up 3.5 as a rookie, but not 3.9.Ladainian Tomlinson didn't run for 3.9 as a rookie either. He did in 2004, but as a rookie he put up 3.6. Of course he was on a team with a terrible line and not much of a passing game. Really I think it was just the 398 touches he got that year that allowed him to put up any numbers.

LT was a top 5 pick with ideal combine numbers.Forte was a second round pick with mediocre combine numbers.

What people are missing is that Benson, reportedly a BUST, did just as well as Forte did. Benson just had fewer carries.I don't just look at Forte's YPC, when watching him, he just looked like he didn't know where to run half the time, and he's SLOW.

In Benson's only year as a starter, he averaged 3.4 YPC. Forte averaged 3.9. Not to mention, Forte was actually a threat to catch the ball and had more catches last year than Benson has in his 4 year career. Not sure where you can get just as well out of that, it seems you like to just make up facts and call it an argument.

 

[DrJ]

By the way, I think you guys should all not draft Michael Turner or have your FF card revoked. The guy only averaged 4.0 YPC in 7 games, 1 more than Forte. Bust written all over him.

 

[tdmills]

With a 3.9 average he can't really be that good. I mean he had John St. Clair ahead of him and Rashied Davis keeping defenses honest and he put up a 3.9? Terrible. Walter Payton never put up 3.9. He put up 3.5 as a rookie, but not 3.9.Ladainian Tomlinson didn't run for 3.9 as a rookie either. He did in 2004, but as a rookie he put up 3.6. Of course he was on a team with a terrible line and not much of a passing game. Really I think it was just the 398 touches he got that year that allowed him to put up any numbers.

LT was a top 5 pick with ideal combine numbers.Forte was a second round pick with mediocre combine numbers.

What people are missing is that Benson, reportedly a BUST, did just as well as Forte did. Benson just had fewer carries.I don't just look at Forte's YPC, when watching him, he just looked like he didn't know where to run half the time, and he's SLOW.

Switz, benson didn't do as well as Forte....the stats provide that.Forte didn't know where to run and he's slow. Not everyone has Chris Johnson speed.Combine numbers: Forte ran a 4.46Slaton ran a 4.49Mendenhall 4.45Felix 4.52Stewart 4.48Mcfadden 4.33Johnson 4.24He seems just as fast as the others outside of McFadden and Johnson.He also did fine last year....outrunning Bob Sanders in that opening game and I remember another big run vs the Vikings he outran soem defenders to the corner.