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Dynasty: NON-Draft eligible College prospects (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Xue
- Start date
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Any thoughts on Travin Dural?
EBF
Footballguy
Straight-line player with speed and height. Not sure he has much else. He is very skinny with no apparent agility.
His stats plummeted in the second half of the season. Possibly because teams realized that all he can do is run a fly route.
I think he is far from being a complete athlete or a top devy option, though he's at least a name to monitor.
His speed is very legit with a personal best of 21.16 in the 200m. That's probably 4.3x type of speed.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
EBF
Footballguy
Well, even with the 40 yard dash to the 100m, there are going to be some guys who are slightly better in one than the other because they're either fast starters with a low top speed or slow starters with a blazing top speed. The same thing can happen in the 200m. Someone like Michael Johnson was a record-breaking 200m runner, but probably wouldn't have been a gold medalist in the 100m. All the same, if you can run a blazing 200m time then you can probably run a blazing 100m time and a quick 40 too. Sprinting is sprinting and if you're fast over one sprint distance then you'll probably be fast over another. I think you can rest pretty comfortably under the assumption that anyone who can run a sub 21.5 200m time can fly.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
so for this falls devys drafts who is eligible for 2016 NFL draft?
Chubb
Elliot
Treadwell
What else we got out there?
Chubb
Elliot
Treadwell
What else we got out there?
EBF
Footballguy
Chubb is a true freshman. Won't be eligible until 2017. Here are some names for 2016:
QB Jared Goff, Cal (2016)
QB Christian Hackenberg, Penn State (2016)
RB Greg Bryant, Notre Dame (2016)
RB Corey Clement, Wisconsin (2016)
RB Alex Collins, Arkansas (2016)
RB James Conner, Pittsburgh (2016)
RB Kenneth Dixon, Louisiana Tech (2015)
RB Ezekiel Elliott, Ohio State (2016)
RB DJ Foster, Arizona State (2015)
RB Johnathan Gray, Texas (2015)
RB Derrick Green, Michigan (2016)
RB Derrick Henry, Alabama (2016)
RB Kareem Hunt, Toledo (2016)
RB Shock Linwood, Baylor (2015)
RB Robert Lowe, Texas State (2015)
RB Byron Marshall, Oregon (2015)
RB Thomas Tyner, Oregon (2016)
WR Tyler Boyd, Pitt (2016)
WR Corey Coleman, Baylor (2015)
WR Pharoh Cooper, South Carolina (2016)
WR Corey Davis, Western Michigan (2016)
WR Travin Dural, LSU (2015)
WR DaeSean Hamilton, Penn State (2016)
WR Rashard Higgins, Colorado State (2016)
WR Tyreek Hill, Oklahoma State (2015)
WR Demarcus Robinson, Florida (2016)
WR Ricky Seals-Jones, Texas A&M (2016)
WR Taywan Taylor, Western Kentucky (2016)
WR Laquon Treadwell, Ole Miss (2016)
WR D'haquille Williams, Auburn (2015)
WR Rokeem Williams, Miami (OH) (2015)
WR De'Runnya Wilson, Mississippi State (2016)
TE Pharaoh Brown, Oregon (2016)
TE Hunter Henry, Arkansas (2016)
TE Bucky Hodges, Virginia Tech (2016)
TE Steven Scheu, Vanderbilt (2015)
TE OJ Howard, Alabama (2016)
Some of these players are eligible for the 2015 draft, but to the best of my knowledge haven't declared. Hence why they have 2015 next to their names.
Bronx Bomber
Footballguy
Where do you find metrics like WR market share, Dominator Rating, etc. is there a website that has them or do you stat guys just calculate them yourselves from their stats vs. the team stats? I'm more of a film guy but trying to branch out. What are your top stats you look at anyways beside those big 2?
EBF
Footballguy
Just did my first devy draft of the year. I will post the results in the devy draft thread when it's over. I got Samaje Perine at 1.08 and Kirk Merritt at 1.11.
I always do a quick check of the top high school players each year for my devy leagues and Merritt was the guy who caught my attention this season. I don't generally recommend high school players in devy drafts because the hit rate is abysmal, but if you can stomach the risk then sometimes you can get good talent at a discount compared with what you'd pay for a guy with 1-2 college seasons under his belt. I had pretty good luck last year predicting good things from Speedy Noil and Nick Chubb because they each had outstanding workout numbers in conjunction with impressive highlights. Merritt is similar in that regard. He was the national Nike combine SPARQ champion out of thousands of participants last year. 5'11" 203 with a 4.46 40, fast shuttle time, and 46" vertical. He won his 100m regional last track season with an automatic time of 10.64 seconds. That likely equates to low 4.4 or high 4.3 speed, and that's without factoring in any improvements that he might make as a senior and collegiate. His wheels are evident on his highlight reel, where he shows a good combination of fluid lateral quickness and explosive vertical speed. None of the major national recruiting services have him as a top 100 guy or a five star recruit, but offers from Auburn, Alabama, LSU, Texas A&M, Florida State, Notre Dame, and every other elite program under the sun suggest that he's viewed as a top prospect by the schools and their staffs.
Oregon is talking about using him as a WR initially with the possibility to move inside to running back, where I think he has the most long-term potential. The fact that he isn't quite an NFL-ready physical specimen yet at just ~205 pounds makes him a riskier prospect than Chubb a year ago, but I looked at all the top HS RB and WR recruits this year, and he's the one who stood out the most to me. If you're in one of those deep devy drafts with 50+ players taken then I strongly recommend taking a look at him with one of your later picks. He will be pretty far under the radar due to the modest recruiting hype, but the potential payoff is huge. Oregon has done a good job of utilizing versatile weapons like Byron Marshall, De'Anthony Thomas, and Josh Huff, and I think Merritt is more talented than any of those guys.
I always do a quick check of the top high school players each year for my devy leagues and Merritt was the guy who caught my attention this season. I don't generally recommend high school players in devy drafts because the hit rate is abysmal, but if you can stomach the risk then sometimes you can get good talent at a discount compared with what you'd pay for a guy with 1-2 college seasons under his belt. I had pretty good luck last year predicting good things from Speedy Noil and Nick Chubb because they each had outstanding workout numbers in conjunction with impressive highlights. Merritt is similar in that regard. He was the national Nike combine SPARQ champion out of thousands of participants last year. 5'11" 203 with a 4.46 40, fast shuttle time, and 46" vertical. He won his 100m regional last track season with an automatic time of 10.64 seconds. That likely equates to low 4.4 or high 4.3 speed, and that's without factoring in any improvements that he might make as a senior and collegiate. His wheels are evident on his highlight reel, where he shows a good combination of fluid lateral quickness and explosive vertical speed. None of the major national recruiting services have him as a top 100 guy or a five star recruit, but offers from Auburn, Alabama, LSU, Texas A&M, Florida State, Notre Dame, and every other elite program under the sun suggest that he's viewed as a top prospect by the schools and their staffs.
Oregon is talking about using him as a WR initially with the possibility to move inside to running back, where I think he has the most long-term potential. The fact that he isn't quite an NFL-ready physical specimen yet at just ~205 pounds makes him a riskier prospect than Chubb a year ago, but I looked at all the top HS RB and WR recruits this year, and he's the one who stood out the most to me. If you're in one of those deep devy drafts with 50+ players taken then I strongly recommend taking a look at him with one of your later picks. He will be pretty far under the radar due to the modest recruiting hype, but the potential payoff is huge. Oregon has done a good job of utilizing versatile weapons like Byron Marshall, De'Anthony Thomas, and Josh Huff, and I think Merritt is more talented than any of those guys.
EBF
Footballguy
He went 1.09 in our draft. I looked at him earlier this offseason and thought he was just okay. Good vertical threat. Not small, but not what I would call a big receiver either. Didn't see a lot of evidence of great agility or RAC skills. He seems like more of just a pure straight-line deep burner. Off the charts stats with a high yards per reception and lots of big plays. I could see him being successful as a deep threat in an offense that likes to throw long. However, I look around the league and don't see many of his "type" lighting up the box scores. I'm inclined to view him as more of a complementary player. You never know though...
EBF
Footballguy
He looks like a RB to me. Noil always looked like a WR. Two very different players.
Oregon has a bit of a logjam at the skill positions with Byron Marshall, Thomas Tyner, Royce Freeman, Bralon Addison, and Taj Gibson all vying for snaps in the backfield and/or in the slot. I still think Merritt will be tough to keep off the field. His talent really jumped out at me.
Vincesanity
Footballguy
Interested to see the draft results
Appreciate the take, got a devy draft coming up March 1st and anyone who has played a year in college is eligible, I have picks 6 and 7, just looking for some candidates; Treadwell, Boyd, Henry, Hackenberg, Clement, Alex Collins, North all gone and I expect Chubb/Ezekiel Elliott to be long gone, interested to see what happened in yours when you post it. League is Superflex and 1.5 PPR TE, I'd be interested in any suggestions you or anyone else might have!
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
De'Runnya Wilson vs. Duke Williams, two guys available in many one-round devy drafts this year. What do you guys think? Most of the big name WR's are gone in these types of leagues (Treadwell, Boyd, maybe Dupre as the big name freshman), and honestly the position feels pretty sucked dry of talent right now, but these two stick out as guys that might still be there.
EBF
Footballguy
Well, I looked at a lot of players and I will post more about some of them tomorrow.
Perine is one guy who, when you look at what he accomplished last year and then you look at where he's rated by sites like DLF (they have him as the #20 devy player), there's a bit of an incongruity. You'd think a true freshman at a big program like Oklahoma would be rated higher after posting a 1700 yard/6.3 YPC season. The skepticism makes a little bit of sense because he's a very unique back. He weighs 240+ pounds on a 5'11" frame. Those are odd dimensions that you don't usually see at the RB position. Is he too big? That's one question I have, but it's not like he's carrying around a lot of bad pounds. Dude's just built like a tank. What surprised me reviewing his clips was how good his feet and hips are. He's a big back and some might call him a plodder, but he has a little bit of quickness and change-of-direction to him. I felt like he was pretty good at running low and making efficient east-west cuts. You see a good example of it on the sequence below. If you watch the first angle, it just looks like straight-line power running where he bounces off a bad tackle. But the field level view reveals that Perine makes a subtle cut before the defender arrives to help deflect and minimize the contact. With his strong base and good balance, he's going to stay on his feet in those situations 100% of the time. Check it out: http://youtu.be/10GNnA99W_8?t=3m41s
The obvious hang-up with him is that he doesn't have great explosiveness. The strength and conditioning coach at Oklahoma says he runs a 4.61 right now. However, they're going to be working a lot on his speed and quickness in their training program. He has power in spades and if they can add just a little more explosion to his game then he could really be something. Despite being a power back, he's already a big play threat. He ranked 17th among FBS backs in carries last season with 263, but finished tied for second behind Melvin Gordon with 20 runs of 20+ yards. So despite being a 240+ bulldozer, he was able to break free for a lot of big plays. He can also catch the ball pretty well. I'll stop short of calling him a great prospect because speed seems to trump power in terms of NFL backs and their success, but there's a lot to like. I had him as the #3 player behind Chubb and Elliott for my draft and was pretty happy to see him slide to #8 where I could get him.
EBF
Footballguy
I'm not really feeling the devy WR pool at the moment. Players will emerge. They always do. However, when I looked at the WR candidates in the devy pool for my draft, I really didn't see anyone I could point to and confidently say that he will be a top 50 NFL draft pick.
Wilson does some good things and maybe he will be a first rounder when it's all said and done, but I tend to favor agile/elusive WRs over the jump ball types. I wouldn't take him at his devy ADP, though I can see the potential. People look at him and get visions of Mike Evans or Kelvin Benjamin.
Xue
Footballguy
He's going to be a stud. Very young and production through the roof. Eventual 2nd rounder in the real draft.
Xue
Footballguy
I'm weary of Williams' age. He'll be 23 next year as far as I know. Is Mike Williams available? I'll take Wilson over Duke.
Love Corey Davis! Almost took him at 1.4, but thought he'd slip due to being under the radar. Best route runner, i've seen in college football...ever. Technician, that is a good overall athlete and is 6'2 with soft hands.
There will be more in The Devy Report if anyone is interested just PM me.
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Perine impressed me more than I thought he would. I see Michael Turner with less speed, however when Michael Turner lost a step he wasn't relevant. The stats are nice, but if you watch the games...he had HUGE holes to run through. His record breaking game is a joke, watch #5 for Kansas. The worst safety play i've ever seen and he just had continual huge lanes with nobody to tackle him. Perine is more of a run hard into a guy, they bounce off and keep running player. That works great in the Big 12, but when does that work in the NFL?
Wilson is much more fluid and athletic than Benjamin. Has much better flexibility and body control...very different players. Wilson isn't as physical as Evans, he's just a different big WR that has quick feet and more explosiveness. Lets not forget that he turns 21 this September and is younger than Tyler Boyd/Duke Williams. Can still add mass and strength.
Xue
Footballguy
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
EBF
Footballguy
Vincesanity
Footballguy
Are you not high on Freeman or just that high on Merrit?
EBF
Footballguy
Now that this draft is over and I probably won't do another devy draft until August, I can share some more of my thoughts on the current pool of players. I think Chubb and Elliott are both likely first rounders, but I knew they wouldn't fall to me and that the price for trading up would be prohibitive. That left me with the challenge of sifting through dozens of names in hopes of finding some other guys with high NFL potential. It was really easy to find players who had several good qualities, but it was very difficult to find players that were totally convincing. Most of the guys had 3-4 good traits and then maybe 1-2 bad things that worried me.
In general, I'm not that high on the devy WR pool right now. I'm sure players will emerge and end up being very good NFL prospects. However, when I looked at the alleged top guys I didn't see anyone who completely convinced me. I was not going to use a pick on DeRunnya Wilson, Mike Williams, Duke Williams, or Tyler Boyd. A lot of people have Malachi Dupre rated highly and I think that's premature. He's toothpick skinny and despite being an explosive leaper, I just don't see enough there yet to justify a high devy pick. I think he's coasting on his high school hype still. I took a long look at Speedy Noil, KD Cannon, Tyreek Hill, Artavis Scott, and Demarcus Robinson. Some thoughts on them...
WR Speedy Noil, Texas A&M - Quick and athletic. Good jump ball skills. From what I could see, he's a very good route runner. Ironically, the biggest question mark for me was his speed. Despite his nickname, he strikes me as being quicker than fast. I know that he ran track in high school and was a member of his school's 4x100m relay team, but I can't find a 100m time for him anywhere, which strongly suggests that his times were not good enough to shine individually. That means he's probably a low 11 guy. That wouldn't be a problem on its own. Noil's game and movement remind me of Dez Bryant and Dez was only a 4.52 guy at the combine. The problem is that Dez is 6'2" 224 whereas Noil is listed at 5'11" 185. I don't know if he'll be able to shine in the NFL at his size without exceptional speed. I know he ran in the 4.4 range at the Nike SPARQ combines, but it wasn't reflected in the clips I could find from his freshman season at A&M and there are no track times to fall back on for reassurance. So add it all up and I couldn't quite justify spending a pick on him, though he'll be high on my watch list for next season.
WR KD Cannon, Baylor - He was rated really highly out of HS and he made a big splash as a freshman, topping the 1000+ yard mark. His wind-illegal PR of 10.32 in the 100m suggests that he has ELITE wheels, but his wind-legal best is just 10.86 and his best 200m time was 21.42. Those are certainly not bad times, but you expect a true burner to do better in the 200. For the sake of comparison, Jahvid Best did 10.36 / 20.65 in the 100m / 200m in high school. Reggie Bush did 10.42 / 21.07 as a HS junior. Cannon's 200m time is slow relative to his 100m time, which suggests that he's more of a fast starter with a modest top speed than a guy with a blazing top speed. That's not a huge deal, but you'd like to see a better 200 time from a player whose game is heavily predicated on speed. On the football field, he explodes off the line of scrimmage and was a lethal deep threat in his first college season. Though we didn't see much of it last year at Baylor, his high school highlights suggest that he has very good ball skills to win jump balls and that he also has good agility. He is quite light and skinny at maybe 5'11"-6'0" and 175-185 pounds, which is a negative. There aren't a lot of skinny deep threats lighting up the NFL right now, but you could look towards DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin as encouraging comparisons. Overall, I liked Cannon quite a bit. He would be in my top 15 and he was one of the 4-5 finalists that I heavily considered for my picks.
WR Tyreek Hill, Oklahoma State - The fastest man in college football, with legit sub 10 second speed in the 100m. Really athletic on the field with good agility and overall movement. Bit of a tweener. Likely too small to play RB. Lacks size and experience at WR. Still, he's much better than other track star types like Jacoby Ford and Marquise Goodwin. I think there's a pretty good chance he would've been a first round pick eventually. The biggest issue is that he's facing a potential 1-3 years in prison due to a domestic incident with his girlfriend. Maybe he gets off clean and is playing in the NFL next year. Maybe not. Add that risk to the tweener factor and it just seemed like too big of a boom-or-bust risk to take. Athletically, he's one of the top prospects available though.
WR Artavis Scott, Clemson - Good athlete. Big impact as a freshman. He was a long jumper in high school, but I don't have any 100m/200m times to help gauge his speed. Not a huge guy. Below 6'0" and not that bulky. Numbers were padded by a lot of "catches" that were basically glorified handoffs on fly sweeps and reverses. Almost all of his big plays fall into that category. Interesting name to monitor, but not enough there yet to justify a first round dev pick.
WR Demarcus Robinson, Florida - Liked his high school highlights a couple years back, but he had a slow debut season due to immaturity and off-field issues. Showed good progress as a sophomore. Seems to have good speed and agility. Pretty good size, but not a true "big" receiver. One to watch for the 2016 draft, but at this point projecting him as anything more than a 2nd-3rd rounder would be a stretch. He's a good all-around receiver, but doesn't appear to have any one single elite athletic trait.
OTHERS: Corey Coleman, Cam Sims, Pharoh Cooper, Mike Williams, George Campbell (HS), Christian Kirk (HS)
As for the RBs, I had Chubb and Elliott as a clear top 2. Both guys look legit. I have Perine as the #3 in a lower tier. I said a lot about him previously, so I'll keep it simple: Unique talent with a genuine freak trait (power). Not a burner, but more mobile than people think and the metrics love him too because of his high YPC, consistency, and high big play rate. The 4-5 spots is where things start to get wide open for me. Some thoughts on the prime candidates for me:
RB Royce Freeman, Oregon - On paper, he's a no-brainer. 5* recruit with NFL-ready size who rushed for 1300+ yards in a BCS conference in his first year of eligibility. However, I just didn't like his film much. His speed is pretty mediocre. He's not overly elusive. He had a disappointing long run % compared with the other top RB candidates:
Chubb - 8.2%
Elliott - 5.1%
Perine - 7.6%
Hunt - 9.8%
Freeman - 4.7%
Maybe he will get better in future seasons, but from my perspective he was surprisingly average in terms of his actual running skills. Nice frame, but he is not dynamic in terms of his cuts or speed. I had two chances to pick him for a reasonably low price (#8 and #11) and wasn't really interested.
RB Kareem Hunt, Toledo - I'm surprised he isn't higher on most devy boards by virtue of his metrics alone. He's a big back at approximately 5'11" 220. He ran an automatic 10.8 in the 100m as a high schooler. He also high jumped 6'8". So he's an explosive athlete for his size. On the field, he ranked third in the country in rushing yards per game behind Melvin Gordon and Tevin Coleman and topped 100+ in every game. He also had an obscene long run percentage, busting 20 plays of 20+ yards on just 205 carries. I was strongly tempted to draft him and he was probably the next guy up on my board after the two that I took in this draft. What ultimately dissuaded me from making the pick was his clips. I felt like he lacked good east-west plant-and-drive quickness. He was more of a musclebound straight-line runner sort of in the mold of Rashard Mendenhall. Practically looks like a Mendy clone on this run, spin move and all. When running through the line of scrimmage, he seemed to struggle to make hard lateral cuts and instead would sort of jump or shuffle to the side. It's hard to explain, but it ended up getting him tackled in weird and stressful ways. Beyond that, the MAC is a creampuff conference and Toledo has a friendly system that inflates RB production (look at David Fluellen's numbers from the last few years). Hunt is a better prospect than Fluellen and I could see him going in the 2nd-4th round of the draft next year, but ultimately I did not see the crisp movement of a first round back.
RB Stanley "Boom" Williams, Kentucky - Almost a polar opposite from Hunt. Smaller back (5'9" 200), but extremely fluid runner with elite east-west quickness. He had a strong freshman season and began to emerge more at the end of the year. I think he's a prime candidate for a breakout season in 2015. His game speed looked pretty good, but the best time I could find from his high school track days was just 11.07 in the 100m. That's not slow, but it's not what you'd hope to see from a smaller RB. Good versatility and receiving skills. He's not tiny, but he's not a big or powerful runner either, so mobility will be everything with him. He was one of my finalists. I couldn't quite justify picking him yet because he's a little bit of a size/speed tweener, but he's an undervalued prospect at the moment.
RB Dalvin Cook, Florida State - Big time HS recruit who made an instant splash with 1000+ yards as a freshman. Nice cuts and agility. Tiny frame. Good speed, but not "wow" speed. He's probably a high 4.4 guy right now. I think he will have to get bigger and/or faster to be a great prospect for the next level.
OTHERS: JaMycal Hasty (HS), Damien Harris (HS), Demario Richard, Nick Wilson, Derrick Green, Jarvion Franklin, Elijah Hood
Didn't spend a whole lot of time on tight ends because I wasn't going to draft one unless he looked downright amazing. Bucky Hodges had some pretty good clips and seems like he might be the best guy for next year overall. Hunter Henry is solid, but not very explosive. OJ Howard has yet to really live up to his measurables. Steven Scheu looks like he could be a decent mid round guy, maybe in the mold of Owen Daniels.
Didn't really spend any time on the QBs. Brad Kaaya looks promising.
In general, I'm not that high on the devy WR pool right now. I'm sure players will emerge and end up being very good NFL prospects. However, when I looked at the alleged top guys I didn't see anyone who completely convinced me. I was not going to use a pick on DeRunnya Wilson, Mike Williams, Duke Williams, or Tyler Boyd. A lot of people have Malachi Dupre rated highly and I think that's premature. He's toothpick skinny and despite being an explosive leaper, I just don't see enough there yet to justify a high devy pick. I think he's coasting on his high school hype still. I took a long look at Speedy Noil, KD Cannon, Tyreek Hill, Artavis Scott, and Demarcus Robinson. Some thoughts on them...
WR Speedy Noil, Texas A&M - Quick and athletic. Good jump ball skills. From what I could see, he's a very good route runner. Ironically, the biggest question mark for me was his speed. Despite his nickname, he strikes me as being quicker than fast. I know that he ran track in high school and was a member of his school's 4x100m relay team, but I can't find a 100m time for him anywhere, which strongly suggests that his times were not good enough to shine individually. That means he's probably a low 11 guy. That wouldn't be a problem on its own. Noil's game and movement remind me of Dez Bryant and Dez was only a 4.52 guy at the combine. The problem is that Dez is 6'2" 224 whereas Noil is listed at 5'11" 185. I don't know if he'll be able to shine in the NFL at his size without exceptional speed. I know he ran in the 4.4 range at the Nike SPARQ combines, but it wasn't reflected in the clips I could find from his freshman season at A&M and there are no track times to fall back on for reassurance. So add it all up and I couldn't quite justify spending a pick on him, though he'll be high on my watch list for next season.
WR KD Cannon, Baylor - He was rated really highly out of HS and he made a big splash as a freshman, topping the 1000+ yard mark. His wind-illegal PR of 10.32 in the 100m suggests that he has ELITE wheels, but his wind-legal best is just 10.86 and his best 200m time was 21.42. Those are certainly not bad times, but you expect a true burner to do better in the 200. For the sake of comparison, Jahvid Best did 10.36 / 20.65 in the 100m / 200m in high school. Reggie Bush did 10.42 / 21.07 as a HS junior. Cannon's 200m time is slow relative to his 100m time, which suggests that he's more of a fast starter with a modest top speed than a guy with a blazing top speed. That's not a huge deal, but you'd like to see a better 200 time from a player whose game is heavily predicated on speed. On the football field, he explodes off the line of scrimmage and was a lethal deep threat in his first college season. Though we didn't see much of it last year at Baylor, his high school highlights suggest that he has very good ball skills to win jump balls and that he also has good agility. He is quite light and skinny at maybe 5'11"-6'0" and 175-185 pounds, which is a negative. There aren't a lot of skinny deep threats lighting up the NFL right now, but you could look towards DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin as encouraging comparisons. Overall, I liked Cannon quite a bit. He would be in my top 15 and he was one of the 4-5 finalists that I heavily considered for my picks.
WR Tyreek Hill, Oklahoma State - The fastest man in college football, with legit sub 10 second speed in the 100m. Really athletic on the field with good agility and overall movement. Bit of a tweener. Likely too small to play RB. Lacks size and experience at WR. Still, he's much better than other track star types like Jacoby Ford and Marquise Goodwin. I think there's a pretty good chance he would've been a first round pick eventually. The biggest issue is that he's facing a potential 1-3 years in prison due to a domestic incident with his girlfriend. Maybe he gets off clean and is playing in the NFL next year. Maybe not. Add that risk to the tweener factor and it just seemed like too big of a boom-or-bust risk to take. Athletically, he's one of the top prospects available though.
WR Artavis Scott, Clemson - Good athlete. Big impact as a freshman. He was a long jumper in high school, but I don't have any 100m/200m times to help gauge his speed. Not a huge guy. Below 6'0" and not that bulky. Numbers were padded by a lot of "catches" that were basically glorified handoffs on fly sweeps and reverses. Almost all of his big plays fall into that category. Interesting name to monitor, but not enough there yet to justify a first round dev pick.
WR Demarcus Robinson, Florida - Liked his high school highlights a couple years back, but he had a slow debut season due to immaturity and off-field issues. Showed good progress as a sophomore. Seems to have good speed and agility. Pretty good size, but not a true "big" receiver. One to watch for the 2016 draft, but at this point projecting him as anything more than a 2nd-3rd rounder would be a stretch. He's a good all-around receiver, but doesn't appear to have any one single elite athletic trait.
OTHERS: Corey Coleman, Cam Sims, Pharoh Cooper, Mike Williams, George Campbell (HS), Christian Kirk (HS)
As for the RBs, I had Chubb and Elliott as a clear top 2. Both guys look legit. I have Perine as the #3 in a lower tier. I said a lot about him previously, so I'll keep it simple: Unique talent with a genuine freak trait (power). Not a burner, but more mobile than people think and the metrics love him too because of his high YPC, consistency, and high big play rate. The 4-5 spots is where things start to get wide open for me. Some thoughts on the prime candidates for me:
RB Royce Freeman, Oregon - On paper, he's a no-brainer. 5* recruit with NFL-ready size who rushed for 1300+ yards in a BCS conference in his first year of eligibility. However, I just didn't like his film much. His speed is pretty mediocre. He's not overly elusive. He had a disappointing long run % compared with the other top RB candidates:
Chubb - 8.2%
Elliott - 5.1%
Perine - 7.6%
Hunt - 9.8%
Freeman - 4.7%
Maybe he will get better in future seasons, but from my perspective he was surprisingly average in terms of his actual running skills. Nice frame, but he is not dynamic in terms of his cuts or speed. I had two chances to pick him for a reasonably low price (#8 and #11) and wasn't really interested.
RB Kareem Hunt, Toledo - I'm surprised he isn't higher on most devy boards by virtue of his metrics alone. He's a big back at approximately 5'11" 220. He ran an automatic 10.8 in the 100m as a high schooler. He also high jumped 6'8". So he's an explosive athlete for his size. On the field, he ranked third in the country in rushing yards per game behind Melvin Gordon and Tevin Coleman and topped 100+ in every game. He also had an obscene long run percentage, busting 20 plays of 20+ yards on just 205 carries. I was strongly tempted to draft him and he was probably the next guy up on my board after the two that I took in this draft. What ultimately dissuaded me from making the pick was his clips. I felt like he lacked good east-west plant-and-drive quickness. He was more of a musclebound straight-line runner sort of in the mold of Rashard Mendenhall. Practically looks like a Mendy clone on this run, spin move and all. When running through the line of scrimmage, he seemed to struggle to make hard lateral cuts and instead would sort of jump or shuffle to the side. It's hard to explain, but it ended up getting him tackled in weird and stressful ways. Beyond that, the MAC is a creampuff conference and Toledo has a friendly system that inflates RB production (look at David Fluellen's numbers from the last few years). Hunt is a better prospect than Fluellen and I could see him going in the 2nd-4th round of the draft next year, but ultimately I did not see the crisp movement of a first round back.
RB Stanley "Boom" Williams, Kentucky - Almost a polar opposite from Hunt. Smaller back (5'9" 200), but extremely fluid runner with elite east-west quickness. He had a strong freshman season and began to emerge more at the end of the year. I think he's a prime candidate for a breakout season in 2015. His game speed looked pretty good, but the best time I could find from his high school track days was just 11.07 in the 100m. That's not slow, but it's not what you'd hope to see from a smaller RB. Good versatility and receiving skills. He's not tiny, but he's not a big or powerful runner either, so mobility will be everything with him. He was one of my finalists. I couldn't quite justify picking him yet because he's a little bit of a size/speed tweener, but he's an undervalued prospect at the moment.
RB Dalvin Cook, Florida State - Big time HS recruit who made an instant splash with 1000+ yards as a freshman. Nice cuts and agility. Tiny frame. Good speed, but not "wow" speed. He's probably a high 4.4 guy right now. I think he will have to get bigger and/or faster to be a great prospect for the next level.
OTHERS: JaMycal Hasty (HS), Damien Harris (HS), Demario Richard, Nick Wilson, Derrick Green, Jarvion Franklin, Elijah Hood
Didn't spend a whole lot of time on tight ends because I wasn't going to draft one unless he looked downright amazing. Bucky Hodges had some pretty good clips and seems like he might be the best guy for next year overall. Hunter Henry is solid, but not very explosive. OJ Howard has yet to really live up to his measurables. Steven Scheu looks like he could be a decent mid round guy, maybe in the mold of Owen Daniels.
Didn't really spend any time on the QBs. Brad Kaaya looks promising.
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EBF
Footballguy
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
I find it interesting that you basically swept aside the big-name prototypical WR prospects (Wilson, Duke Williams, Mike Williams) and decided you weren't going to pick them, and then dug into the undersized speedsters that are very hard to project to the NFL and rely on elite QB production to be fantasy WR1's. It basically guaranteed that you'd pick RB and drafting freshman RB prospects that far out is a tough game to win. Seems like you'd have been better served swinging on one of the bigger WR's, no?
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Malachi Dupre WR LSU might be a stud in the making. I hear he's added 20 lbs too. He's got huge hands and makes one handed catches like Odell Beckham Jr. He's just a freshman, so there's plenty of room to improve, but he just looks the part to me. Kind of reminds me of a young AJ Green.
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EBF
Footballguy
I looked at all of them. Being tall does not necessarily = prototypical. If the listed height/weight for M Williams is accurate then he's below guys like Reggie Wayne and AJ Green on the BMI scale. Very thin. Nowhere near the VJax/Andre/Fitz types. His stats were awesome last year, but his clips didn't convince me. De'Runnya is a bit bigger, but from what I can see he doesn't move as well as those elite Pro Bowlers. He's more of a one trick pony tall guy. That didn't hurt Evans or Benjamin much last year and it might not hurt Wilson when he gets to the league, but for the most part I prioritize movement skills > frame when I'm evaluating players. Probably the #1 thing I look for is fluid agility and economy of motion. If a player doesn't have those things then he's not likely to end up on my roster regardless of what else he brings to the table. I've made exceptions in the past (I took Moncrief in one league a couple years ago) and I almost made one this year for Hunt, but when I go back and watch the great backs of the past generation (Alexander, Ahman, Charles, Peterson, Gore, Tomlinson, Ricky, McCoy) the common thread is not how big they are, but how elastic and fluid their running styles are. No wasted motion. Awesome ability to cut across their body and change directions. That's the first thing that I want to see in a great back. When you have that and then you add the + physical tangibles on top of it, that's usually when you really have something special like Elliott or Chubb. When you have just one of those things, that's when you get more of a "maybe" or mediocre type of prospect.
It's basically the same story at WR. Almost all of the sustained elite guys like Fitz, Demaryius, Boldin, and Dez are not just big guys. They're big guys who move like little guys. So you can say that Mike Williams is prototypical because he's 6'4", but unless he has the blazing speed of Julio or the punt returner quickness of Dez and Jackson, he's missing a big piece of the puzzle.
Apart from that, I just think a lot of the devy rankings that you see on the Internet come from a small echo chamber of part-time analysts and create a false consensus about who you're supposed to take. What's so great about Duke, Wilson, and M Williams that separates them from all the other college receivers? It's not their stats. You could say physical tools, but those guys aren't necessarily FREAK athletes. I think the idea that they're the solid top guys on the board is suspect. You see this a lot in devy drafts and on sites like DLF. DLF is a cool site and I enjoy checking their rankings, but sometimes I wonder how their devy rankers seem to come to such a clean consensus on who they like and don't like. All four of their devy guys have Bo Scarbrough as a top 25 RB despite the fact that he hasn't played a college game yet, and yet not a single one of their devy guys has Kareem Hunt as a top 25 devy RB even though he's a 5'11" 220 pounder with likely 4.4-4.5 speed coming off a monster NCAA season. I just find it hard to believe than an objective panel of four guys each running their own independent search for talent would so consistently agree on who gets the thumbs up and who gets the thumbs down. So when I see a guy like Tyler Boyd or Mike Williams as a near-unanimous elite pick according to their staff, it doesn't carry the same weight for me that it would seeing those players as unanimous first round picks in NFL mocks the March before the draft. Devy rankings mean a lot less to me. I interpret them as "this is who other people like and who other people will take high in the devy draft" and not as "this is who's actually good."
EBF
Footballguy
More on that here from last year if that wall of text wasn't enough for you:
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=702717&page=7#entry16863940
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=702717&page=8#entry16879903
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=702717&page=7#entry16863940
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=702717&page=8#entry16879903
Denver724
Footballguy
The whole thing isn't an exact science. Even at the NFL level. The Browns probably spend millions scouting players every year and trade up to take a knucklehead like Johnny Football (who is now in rehab). It's a crapshoot and we can all believe that we "got it right" in the end, but luck has a lot to do with it. For us it's hobby and when we can say we drafted a superstar in a devy draft before they "hit it big" it makes it all worthwhile. I don't watch a lot of "tape", but I do read a lot. I draft players off of instinct based on all the information I have at my disposal. The more the better. I can take or leave whatever I want (and there are some "experts" I probably put a little more weight in). It's just a lot of fun. I wish I would have found dynasty and dynasty/devy leagues a lot sooner than I actually did.
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EBF
Footballguy
Never said I wasn't.
Devy drafts aren't like rookie drafts where you can use draft position as a pretty good approximation of player quality. You kinda have to figure things out on your own. If you don't have the time or desire to build your own board, you can fall back on hearsay and Internet rankings to give you a starting point. However, they're not necessarily that trustworthy. So if you do put in the time to build your own board then you shouldn't be that worried if your conclusions differ from what other people are saying because at that point it's just their word against yours.
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JohnnyU
Footballguy
Like Malachi Dupre
I saw what you said about him regarding his weight. If memory serves AJ Green was skinny as well and doesn't look like a BMI freak now. I read somewhere that Dupre added 20 lbs. Dupre shows a lot skills this early in his college career (jumping, route running, ability to leverage off defenders, huge hands that are like glue). I have a feeling you will be back tracking about Dupre.
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EBF
Footballguy
Saying I wouldn't use a high devy pick on him isn't the same as saying that he has no chance to become a top prospect.like Malachi Dupre
However, I've learned over the years that if you're going to spend a devy pick on a high schooler or an unproven college player, make sure it's a guy who already has NFL caliber physical tools even if he never adds a pound or gets any faster. That way the whole gamble doesn't hinge on something that may or may not happen. The last two guys I took straight out of high school (Tyner and Chubb) were each big/fast enough as HS seniors that they didn't need to add anything to get drafted. If you take a guy like Malachi Dupre or George Campbell, you better hope he adds a lot of mass because he's not there yet physically.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
You worry too much about BMI, which is not exactly a secret around these parts, rather than the skills of players. You seem to look at BMI and turn a blind eye to everything else about the player. Dupre looks like he is loaded with wonderful skills. I love his ball hawking skills, both in position and jump and with huge hands that can snatch the ball out air effortlessly. I look at him and say wow, that WR is good and could be great. He kind of reminds me of a young A J Green or Odell Beckham Jr.Saying I wouldn't use a high devy pick on him isn't the same as saying that he has no chance to become a top prospect.like Malachi Dupre
However, I've learned over the years that if you're going to spend a devy pick on a high schooler or an unproven college player, make sure it's a guy who already has NFL caliber physical tools even if he never adds a pound or gets any faster. That way the whole gamble doesn't hinge on something that may or may not happen. The last two guys I took straight out of high school (Tyner and Chubb) were each big/fast enough as HS seniors that they didn't need to add anything to get drafted. If you take a guy like Malachi Dupre or George Campbell, you better hope he adds a lot of mass because he's not there yet physically.
EBF
Footballguy
Well, you spent the 1.05 pick on him. I would hope that you like him if you're willing to take him that high.
From my perspective, it's a risky selection. He has 14 career catches and 318 receiving yards. LSU's site lists him at 6'3" 187, which is a lower weight-per-height ratio than even twigs like DeSean Jackson and Justin Hunter. Dupre was an accomplished jumper in track in high school like Hunter. However, there's not much evidence that he has elite speed. ESPN says he was clocked at 4.58 at the Nike combine. So he's rail thin, he has no real production to speak of, and he has no evidence of great speed in his track or combine history. All of that combined makes him a very risky pick to me. If not for the fact that he was regarded as an elite HS recruit, I don't think he would've been drafted in our league on merit alone.
If I were aiming for that type of WR, I would've gone with George Campbell. Top 10 national recruit in the 2015 class. 6'4" 190 with a 4.36 40 at the Nike combine and a blazing PR of 10.47 in the 100m. Built like Dupre and ranked about as highly, but seems to have much better speed.
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JohnnyU
Footballguy
Dupre's ability to jump and go after the ball with those huge hands will give him an advantage over most DBs. He has nice size to boot and I expect him to add weight as his college career unfolds. http://cdn1.vox-cdn.com/assets/4351353/chi1.gif
https://twitter.com/georgewhitfield/status/471994407944589312/photo/1
He's devoted his Spring and Summer and weight training, adding 7-10 pounds of muscle, which will put him around 6'3", 195 pounds when he steps on campus. I expect that he will weigh about 215 this time next year.
Short Shuttle: 4.1 seconds - impressive for someone his size
Vertical Leap: 42.5" - wow
Athletically, there's nothing of concern here, and he will just get bigger, stronger and faster. Check out Wescott Eberts' scouting report http://www.sbnation.com/college-football-recruiting/2013/5/8/4310228/malachi-dupre-scouting-report-football-recruiting-2014
StrengthsSize/Length: Standing at nearly 6'3" Dupre fits the big-WR mold we've experienced success with in the past. Beyond pure height, he's got long arms which allow him to extend and pluck the ball out of the sky, and create separation from defenders.
Leaping Ability: The 42.5 inch vertical speaks for itself, but don't think Dupre is just a workout warrior whose traits don't translate onto the field. Check out the first catch on the reel at :15 in clip one. This catch could displays his leaping, hands, body control and explosiveness all in one. It's truly remarkable. 1:03 on clip two is another example of putting that jump into game action.
Body Control: Check 1:10 on clip one and how easily he adjusts to the ball in flight to make the catch. At 3:00 on clip one watch he tracks the ball over his shoulder and it falls right into place, where he secures and tucks it away for six. At :15 in clip two, you again see how naturally he turns to adjust to the flight of the ball and makes a difficult catch look easy.
Hands: Check out the catch starting at 2:38 on clip one. Absolutely love the way he extends with his arms and catches the ball away from his body. Check 6:55 on clip one as well. Great example of catching with the hands, even when absorbing contact.
Explosiveness: At :42 on clip one the QB hits him in stride and Dupre explodes past the defender and is able to take the ball the distance. He's not a pure burner, but he's got more than enough speed to generate big plays. He's a long strider, so once he hits full gait it's off to the races. At 2:22 on clip one he takes a janky KO, gets the sideline and returns it for a TD. 7:12 on clip one is another crazy example of his explosion on a KR.
WeaknessesExperience: Really, every other weakness of Chi is linked to this. By virtue of the offense he played in, he wasn't running the full route tree, nor being forced to due much more than run deep or catch short screens. How much of a hurdle will this be to his development? I'm inclined to not think much considering how he's already putting in time training with NFL DBs. He also talks about the importance of developing the mental aspects of his game in this interview. There will be some adjustment, as there is for any incoming freshman, but he's ahead of the curve.
Route Running: Again, this is less about his ability to do so than his experience in it. Chi actually looks very fluid in his routes, and considering the importance he places on developing his mental game, it wouldn't surprise me if this came much more naturally to him than many assume.
Working the Middle: Just another thing he hasn't done much. How will he handle running across the middle? Will he take a pop and shake it off and still be fearless?
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Vincesanity
Footballguy
We need a DEVY podcast for this growing sector, is there one out there I haven't seen?
Xue
Footballguy
Campbell is pretty overrated. His actual skills aren't as good as some other big WRs in this recruiting class such that his measurables would be the difference maker.
You put too much stock into measurables and speed. Your're going to miss on the Mike Evans's and the Laquon Treadwells. Dupre had much better skills than Campbell does.
Vincesanity
Footballguy
Curious why J. Hasty was on your shortlist of HS backs considering he wasn't too highly sought after and more of a scat back if I remember.
