Pimpin Ain't Easy
Footballguy
I don't get it either. Last year everyone was down on him with the new coach. This year, more weapons, same story.Bulger = VALUE!!
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Dynasty QB rankings (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Limp Dogg Bizkits
- Start date
I don't get it either. Last year everyone was down on him with the new coach. This year, more weapons, same story.Bulger = VALUE!!
-OZ-
Footballguy
Let me guess, you don't see Brian Westbrook as a good RB either?You totally discounted 550 yards and 7 TDs. 19TDs in 13 games started. Why would you say something that isn't even counted in FF is "most important"? That would be like me saying "most importantly, he led the Titans to 6 consecutive victories, an upset over the SB champs, and an 8-5 record." - interesting, but in FF, somewhat meaningless.Yes, he throws INTs. Still, 19/13 is a better TD/INT ratio than half the starters. By the way, he was a rookie, and it's not like his WRs were elite.Just so you don't think I'm too much on the bandwagon (although I have a 1st class ticket), I wouldn't draft VY to be my #1 QB in 2007. I do like his talent and potential in dynasty enough to take him #7, just after Brees and Bulger.
Liquid Tension
Footballguy
Boy, I am so surprised at how many people are so down on Eli Manning. In my leagues scoring he was 5th and 10th overall the last two years, so how can he not be in the top 12? The OL can't be any worse at pass protection and the #2 receiver can't be any worse than last year and the TE can't be any more injured than last year...Also, Eli has improved his QB rating in each year in the league (even if it has been barely). My feeling is that we have seen the floor of Eli and it is Good enough to be in the top 10 2 years in a row. That being said, there are at most 2 guys on this list I would take after Eli so it is not bad. I am not sold on Romo, but he has very good receivers to throw to.
radiohead417
Footballguy
I think Young will be found out, teams are going to make him beat them with his arm, and I don't think he's good enough to do that. The Titan WRs aren't exactly world beaters either. Point is, a QB with such a bad QB rating doesn't stay a QB very long.And by the way, I love Westbrook. I think he's top 5.-OZ- said:radiohead417 said:Let me guess, you don't see Brian Westbrook as a good RB either?You totally discounted 550 yards and 7 TDs. 19TDs in 13 games started. Why would you say something that isn't even counted in FF is "most important"? That would be like me saying "most importantly, he led the Titans to 6 consecutive victories, an upset over the SB champs, and an 8-5 record." - interesting, but in FF, somewhat meaningless.Yes, he throws INTs. Still, 19/13 is a better TD/INT ratio than half the starters. By the way, he was a rookie, and it's not like his WRs were elite.Just so you don't think I'm too much on the bandwagon (although I have a 1st class ticket), I wouldn't draft VY to be my #1 QB in 2007. I do like his talent and potential in dynasty enough to take him #7, just after Brees and Bulger.
If Eli's last name was something other than Manning, he would be lumped in with the failure QBs. Don't let the numbers fool you, he's not a very good QB. Unless he gets a fire in his belly about playing football, I could see him following the Aaron Brooks route - having his team get worse and worse under his lead until finally the front office wakes up and makes a change.Liquid Tension said:
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1) The Ohio State defense, which sent too many players to name to the NFL, forced VY to beat them with his arm. Guess what? He did. There might be an adjustment period, but again and again VY has shown the ability to adapt and improve - forcing the defense to react to what he does instead vice versa. You'll see.2) The list of QBs with HORRIBLE QB ratings in their rookie year who went on to great careers is massive. If your argument was valid, then some hall of fame QBs wouldn't have "stayed a QB very long".
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-OZ-
Footballguy
What exactly do you mean by "found out"? Somehow I think the league knew about him. FWIW, Vick's rating was 4 points lower as a rookie. McNabb's was 6 points lower.I agree the Titans need better WRs (and I'll add a proven RB) before VY truly reaches his potential. Troupe and Scaife aren't horrible for the short game, and Jones will be solid, but you're right on this point.I think Young will be found out, teams are going to make him beat them with his arm, and I don't think he's good enough to do that. The Titan WRs aren't exactly world beaters either. Point is, a QB with such a bad QB rating doesn't stay a QB very long.And by the way, I love Westbrook. I think he's top 5.-OZ- said:radiohead417 said:
If he keeps winning, I doubt Fisher gives a crap about his rating.
Since the subject is Dynasty QB rankings - I want to remind everyone:
If you are citing the poor quality of VYs WRs in your argument, you are actually arguing that VY has latent upside. I'll keeping pounding the drum...
Vince was top 5 over the last six weeks of the season last year, with the poor WRs corps everyone is bringing up (and two stinkers of games that were indicative of how inexperienced and raw he is). Imagine what's going to happen once he gets a true go-to target (all the while he's maturing physically and mentally, and stepping up his game). When you take this into account, I don't how you avoid this conclusion: Vince Young has the highest fantasy upside of any QB in the league.
I feel like Vince is going to be one of those magic eye pictures for a lot of people. They will stare and stare and see VY the bust, VY "just another Vick", VY the terrible passer, and then voila, the picture that some of us see, the picture of a likely perennial top 3, if not #1, fantasy QB will pop out, and you'll never see him the same again.
It's all there, just keep examining Vince and the reality will strike you like a lightning bolt.
If you are citing the poor quality of VYs WRs in your argument, you are actually arguing that VY has latent upside. I'll keeping pounding the drum...
Vince was top 5 over the last six weeks of the season last year, with the poor WRs corps everyone is bringing up (and two stinkers of games that were indicative of how inexperienced and raw he is). Imagine what's going to happen once he gets a true go-to target (all the while he's maturing physically and mentally, and stepping up his game). When you take this into account, I don't how you avoid this conclusion: Vince Young has the highest fantasy upside of any QB in the league.
I feel like Vince is going to be one of those magic eye pictures for a lot of people. They will stare and stare and see VY the bust, VY "just another Vick", VY the terrible passer, and then voila, the picture that some of us see, the picture of a likely perennial top 3, if not #1, fantasy QB will pop out, and you'll never see him the same again.
It's all there, just keep examining Vince and the reality will strike you like a lightning bolt.
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nygiants56
Footballguy
good list! Although, a few caveats..
1. McNabb is not a top 10 QB going forward. He won't post MVP-type numbers anymore, and he has become a major injury risk. IMO, his best days are long gone. draft him and hope for 10 starts/season..
2. I'm not sure Romo is going to finish the season as the starter in Big D., what with a new offensive system
and all..I'm not ready to break out the annoiting oils, neither was Parcells.
3. Vick - this is his last stand, imo. he needs to show improvements in the passing game (accuracy) , or he'll be a benchwarmer in 2008.
I'm not sure this list shouldn't include guys like Huard, who threw 11 tds with only 1 int, 60.7 Comp %, and looked all-world at times last season. now he's the undisputed starter in Kc, as Croyle is at least 2-3 years away.
I'd also like to think that Matt Shaub is going to be a top QB somewhere/sometime soon. Remember, this is a dynasty ranking.
what about Chad Pennington? 2007 could be his best season as a pro. His offensive line really started to play well towards the end of 2006, Cotchery and Coles are a great pair of speedy WR's, and the addition of TJ is going to give Penny another outlet: RB dumpoffs and screen passes.
adding a proven RB like TJ could free up WR's down the field, as defenses now need to focus on stopping the Jets running game. Penny doesn't make many mistakes, and Mangini knows how to use him ( unlike Herm Edwards)
One more guy I'd add, is Alex Smith. IF the new OC in SF keeps the same style of offense, and can tutor Smith like Norv Turner did, the sky is the limit with this kid.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
I am going to be as objective as possible in this post in regards to Vince Young but I must say with all honesty that I believe people are ranking him too high. And I also do not think that Young has shown enough promise yet in his very short career to justify it.
Here are his numbers as a rookie (the only season he has played so far):
Young followed the poor showing against Jacksonville with another very good game against the Bills.
In the last week the Patriots defense held him in check and forced 2 interceptions.
So really people ranking Young so high are doing so based off of 4 outstanding games near the end of the season against defenses that were average or worse. He was not able to get loose in the running game or put up solid passing numbers against the 2 good defenses he faced during this last 6 weeks of the season.
I get the idea that people are projecting his performance based off of these 4 games and may say that he only started 13 games of the season. But really Young only missed most of 2 games. He played pretty extensivly during the week 2 blowout against the Chargers.
While I do think it is reasonable to expect Young to improve as a passer I do not think you can pro-rate those 4 games (25%) as a reliable expectation of his numbers for a whole season. That is just not going to happen. Young also was playing with a pretty good supporting running game with Travis Henry that needs to be replaced in 2006. Young does not have quality WRs to work with right now. Leading recievers Bennett and Wade have moved on during free agency as well. This situation does not look very good for 2006. I realise that people are looking longer term than that with Young and I would expect the Titans to focus on adding good skill players to support Young moving forward. Those players will have some growing pains to go through as well.
So it seems very optimistic to me to rank Young in the top 5 with so many unknowns and to base that ranking off of really only 4 games of work from last season. I have a lot of faith in Jeff Fisher as a coach and I do think that VY is a very good player. I just do not see him finishing in the top 5 over the next 3 seasons with what the Titans currently have in place around him. There is going to have to be a lot of changes before I see that being possible and there are too many other good Qbs in better situations for me to consider over Young in the near and longer term.
Here are his numbers as a rookie (the only season he has played so far):
Vince Young did go on a tear of great games for 3 weeks (highlighted red) starting with the 4th quarter heroics against the Giants that led to all of thier 24 points and a last second field goal for a victory. He followed that game putting very good numbers (although 2 interceptions) against a struggling Colts defense at that time. The 3rd game was against Houston another subpar defense and a emotional game due to Youngs connections with Texas and being passed over in the draft by the Texans. He did not throw a TD pass in the 3rd game.The game after that he was completly shut down against a very good Jacksonville defense.
Young followed the poor showing against Jacksonville with another very good game against the Bills.
In the last week the Patriots defense held him in check and forced 2 interceptions.
So really people ranking Young so high are doing so based off of 4 outstanding games near the end of the season against defenses that were average or worse. He was not able to get loose in the running game or put up solid passing numbers against the 2 good defenses he faced during this last 6 weeks of the season.
I get the idea that people are projecting his performance based off of these 4 games and may say that he only started 13 games of the season. But really Young only missed most of 2 games. He played pretty extensivly during the week 2 blowout against the Chargers.
While I do think it is reasonable to expect Young to improve as a passer I do not think you can pro-rate those 4 games (25%) as a reliable expectation of his numbers for a whole season. That is just not going to happen. Young also was playing with a pretty good supporting running game with Travis Henry that needs to be replaced in 2006. Young does not have quality WRs to work with right now. Leading recievers Bennett and Wade have moved on during free agency as well. This situation does not look very good for 2006. I realise that people are looking longer term than that with Young and I would expect the Titans to focus on adding good skill players to support Young moving forward. Those players will have some growing pains to go through as well.
So it seems very optimistic to me to rank Young in the top 5 with so many unknowns and to base that ranking off of really only 4 games of work from last season. I have a lot of faith in Jeff Fisher as a coach and I do think that VY is a very good player. I just do not see him finishing in the top 5 over the next 3 seasons with what the Titans currently have in place around him. There is going to have to be a lot of changes before I see that being possible and there are too many other good Qbs in better situations for me to consider over Young in the near and longer term.
Bia
well reasoned, well thought out...that being said... keep in mind that it's not just projecting out his 4 best games, its that when you add two stinkers in with the 4 outstanding games, he's still top 5. We're not pro-rating ONLY his best 4 games, we're including the games where he was exposed as what he was, a raw rookie QB who really didn't know what he was doing, which leads into the second, and more important point...Vince wasn't even supposed to be ready to play in the NFL last year. What we saw last year is just the rough draft of Vince Young. His floor. Not to mention, the Titans offense was also at their floor. So, again, how do you avoid the conclusion that Vince has nowhere to go but up? The only way Vince goes down is if he levels off as a player. That hasn't happened yet, in fact, VY has only made big leaps from year to year so far in his career.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I do see what your saying bloom. However you are throwing out the 1st 10 games. It can be reasoned that he was a rookie and it took him that long to get his bearings. And that may be true. However I see some stinker games there that I would expect to happen again. Especialy in 2007 when one considers the weapons lost in the Titans offense so far that need to be replaced.
I do think VY is capable of being a elite Qb talent IF some complimentry recievers are groomed around him. Which this draft does offer some prospects that could lead to Young having those weapons available to him. However those weapons will take some time to develop as well.
I do think the running game really helped Young last year. Henry will be missed and they need to replace him to keep defenses off balance.
I could see these 2 needs being addressed and developed to a point where Young could flourish as soon as 2008. I do not see that happening this season. So people looking at a 3 year or longer view in thier rankings and making the assumption that these needs will be filled paired with Youngs continued improvement might have a top 5 Qb starting mid 2008 and then 2009.
I can see that. But it is still requires a lot of ifs to be answered. I would not be comfortable with that at this time. I think a more reasonable ranking even with optimism would be somthing more like Qb 12.
ETA- I use a moving 3 year projecion model when looking at players for Dynasty. I am not done with projections yet as I am waiting for free agency to run its course and the rookie draft will have some impact as well. But right now with rough numbers mapped out I see VY somewhere between Qb 10-15. I would need to see improvement from him and some weapons added for me to rank him higher than this next year when my 3 year model will be updated.
I do think VY is capable of being a elite Qb talent IF some complimentry recievers are groomed around him. Which this draft does offer some prospects that could lead to Young having those weapons available to him. However those weapons will take some time to develop as well.
I do think the running game really helped Young last year. Henry will be missed and they need to replace him to keep defenses off balance.
I could see these 2 needs being addressed and developed to a point where Young could flourish as soon as 2008. I do not see that happening this season. So people looking at a 3 year or longer view in thier rankings and making the assumption that these needs will be filled paired with Youngs continued improvement might have a top 5 Qb starting mid 2008 and then 2009.
I can see that. But it is still requires a lot of ifs to be answered. I would not be comfortable with that at this time. I think a more reasonable ranking even with optimism would be somthing more like Qb 12.
ETA- I use a moving 3 year projecion model when looking at players for Dynasty. I am not done with projections yet as I am waiting for free agency to run its course and the rookie draft will have some impact as well. But right now with rough numbers mapped out I see VY somewhere between Qb 10-15. I would need to see improvement from him and some weapons added for me to rank him higher than this next year when my 3 year model will be updated.
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One thing that has to be factored in here is that between a good athlete on the D being assigned to "spy" Vince and the DEs having to be very concerned with being the outside containment, Vince in some ways creates his own running game. Because of this, I don't think there will be a huge dropoff without Henry. Much like Denver, as long as Tennessee has a "see the hole, hit the hole" RB, the running game will be just fine.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Would you feel better about this if we use his 2nd half of 2006? 8 whole games? These include games against Baltimore, Philly, Jacksonville, Buffalo, and the Patriots.Yards:
1437 passing
415 running
TDs:
7 passing
5 running
Turnovers:
5 INT
6 fumbles
IF we agreed that he should mirror this for his 2nd season, you'd be looking at 2874 passing yards, 830 rushing yards, 14 passing TDs, 10 running TDs, 10 INT and 12 fumbles. Now, that's difficult to compare to any other QB, but if running and passing stats are equal in your league (rarely the case), you're looking at 3704 yards, 24 TDs, 22 INTs. Those stats would make him a starting caliber QB, and most leagues give more points to running stats than passing.
So no, we're not just ignoring his first 10 games. I'm looking at the 2nd half of 2006. His other games weren't any worse than we'd expect from any rookie QB.
EBF
Footballguy
I think the issue is that at a dynasty ADP of QB3 or QB4, there's almost no margin for error. In order to justify that pick, he'll have to become a consistent top 3-4 QB. Is it worth it to take that risk when you can play it slow and land someone like Bulger? Tough to say.
Young certainly has the upside to distance himself from the rest of the pack ala Tomlinson, Manning, or Gates, but it's dangerous to assume he'll ever reach that level.
Basically, I like his prospects, but wouldn't feel comfortable drafting him as high as he's going.
Young certainly has the upside to distance himself from the rest of the pack ala Tomlinson, Manning, or Gates, but it's dangerous to assume he'll ever reach that level.
Basically, I like his prospects, but wouldn't feel comfortable drafting him as high as he's going.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
The QBs are tough...
w/ out the rookies
1. Peyton Manning 3/24/1976
2. Carson Palmer 12/27/1979
3. Drew Brees 1/15/1979
4. Marc Bulger 4/5/1977
5. Tom Brady 8/3/1977... Bulger over brady.. more attempts and better weapons.
6. Matt Hasselbeck 9/25/1975
7. Donovan McNabb 1/25/1976... Hass over McNabb since McNabb has been shut down 2 yrs in a row.
8. Philip Rivers 12/8/1981
9. Mike Vick 6/26/1980
10. Ben Roethlisberger 3/2/1982
11. Eli Manning 1/3/1981.. Eli over Roeth/Roeth over Eli.. toss up; But i rather Roeth.
12. Vince Young 5/18/1983... has no #1 or #2 Wr right now.. some people need to be reminded of that.
13 Tony Romo 4/21/1980.. Romo over Leinhart since Dallas is a better team as a whole
14. Matt Leinart 5/11/1983
15. Jake Delhomme.. may return to solid form.. but for now I would pass.
16. Alex Smith 5/7/1984.. Has more playing time than Cutler; however Cutler has better weapons
17. Jay Cutler 4/29/1983
18. Jason Campbell 12/31/1981
19. Rex Grossman 8/23/1980... he did get to the superbowl
20. Byron Leftwich 1/14/1980
w/ out the rookies
1. Peyton Manning 3/24/1976
2. Carson Palmer 12/27/1979
3. Drew Brees 1/15/1979
4. Marc Bulger 4/5/1977
5. Tom Brady 8/3/1977... Bulger over brady.. more attempts and better weapons.
6. Matt Hasselbeck 9/25/1975
7. Donovan McNabb 1/25/1976... Hass over McNabb since McNabb has been shut down 2 yrs in a row.
8. Philip Rivers 12/8/1981
9. Mike Vick 6/26/1980
10. Ben Roethlisberger 3/2/1982
11. Eli Manning 1/3/1981.. Eli over Roeth/Roeth over Eli.. toss up; But i rather Roeth.
12. Vince Young 5/18/1983... has no #1 or #2 Wr right now.. some people need to be reminded of that.
13 Tony Romo 4/21/1980.. Romo over Leinhart since Dallas is a better team as a whole
14. Matt Leinart 5/11/1983
15. Jake Delhomme.. may return to solid form.. but for now I would pass.
16. Alex Smith 5/7/1984.. Has more playing time than Cutler; however Cutler has better weapons
17. Jay Cutler 4/29/1983
18. Jason Campbell 12/31/1981
19. Rex Grossman 8/23/1980... he did get to the superbowl
20. Byron Leftwich 1/14/1980
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A quick note on this...Using pretty standard FF scoring (i.e. 1 pt/20 yards passing; 4 pts/passing TD; 1 pt/10 yards rushing; 6 pts/rushing TD), here's how Vince ranked among QB's fantasy wise:Week 10 - #11 ranked QBWeek 11 - #20 ranked QBWeek 12 - #2 ranked QBWeek 13 - #4 ranked QBWeek 14 - #5 ranked QBWeek 15 - #34 ranked QBWeek 16 - #2 ranked QBWeek 17 - #10 ranked QBAverage - #11 ranked QBMean - #10 ranked QBYou have to admit that this is pretty impressive for his rookie year....
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
No I believe in looking at seasons as a whole. I have made the pro-rating mistake before and I will not repeat that mistake. VY or any player will throw out some clunker games. I do not think you are taking an objective look by disecting a season in half.I allready said that there is some reason to expect a rookie to improve but that is not always the case. I do not think VY will do worse in 2007 than he did in 2006 but I also do not expect him to be that much better based off of the 2nd half of his season.
I have been wrong about this before for example with Carson Palmers 2nd half stats that led to a monster following season. So I do want to take that into account. It could be just as much a mistake to ignore signs as it is to have total faith in them.
The mitigating circumstances of VY supporting cast is the main thing that causes me to not trust pro-rating his 2nd half stats. Things have changed and at this point not for the better. I do not expect VY to meet the expectations of his 2nd half split in 2007 and projecting out further than that is questionable without more than one season to draw upon.
So maybe I am missing the boat here and I will be too slow to react in regards to VY moving forward. But I prefer to take a more conservative aproach with him and not place expectations so high. If his supporting cast were stable I probobly still wouldn't do that but it would help me to lean more that way.
JMO I have VY as I allready said in the Qb 10-15 range.
Curtis is signed now so I am getting closer to pinning down projections for passing games now.
poopdawg
Footballguy
And Im excited to see what Bennett brings to the table. Nothing sexy, but he does bring a little more speed than Ike.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
1. Palmer
2. Manning
3. Brees
4. Brady
5. Bulger
6. Leinart
7. McNabb
8. Hasselbeck
9. Young
10. Vick
11. Cutler
12. Roethlisberger
13. Rivers
14. Eli
15. A. Smith
2. Manning
3. Brees
4. Brady
5. Bulger
6. Leinart
7. McNabb
8. Hasselbeck
9. Young
10. Vick
11. Cutler
12. Roethlisberger
13. Rivers
14. Eli
15. A. Smith
. He quietly made huge strides last season. If the team can give him 1-2 more weapons in the passing game, he might become a decent FF starter.
Riffraff
Footballguy
Also, he only turns 23 this year. Already with 2 years starting experience in the NFL, he'll always be younger than:RoethlisbergerRiversEliCampbellLosmanRodgersRomoYoungLeinartCutlerTJacksonClemensQuinnLot of time to improve.By the way, Alex Smith is looking like a nice dynasty. He quietly made huge strides last season. If the team can give him 1-2 more weapons in the passing game, he might become a decent FF starter.
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KellysHeroes
Footballguy
Hey...
VY Lovers
I must remind you of something... HIS #1 AND #2 WRS HAVE LEFT HIM.
And the Titans have only picked up Gage
VY Lovers
I must remind you of something... HIS #1 AND #2 WRS HAVE LEFT HIM.
And the Titans have only picked up Gage
Personnel situations are fluid and subject to change. You do own the player for his entire career in dynasty leagues.Besides that, Bobby Wade and Drew Bennett are more like #3 WRs, and the Titans have young WR talent (particularly Brandon Jones) and are sure to add another name or two in the draft.Lastly, VY threw for 26 TDs in his junior year to the likes of David Thomas, Billy Pittman, and Limas Sweed, not exactly a murderer's row of pass catching threats. He doesn't need great receivers to produce, they get open because he outlasts and eludes the pass rush.Hey... VY LoversI must remind you of something... HIS #1 AND #2 WRS HAVE LEFT HIM.And the Titans have only picked up Gage
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KellysHeroes
Footballguy
That was College Football...I'm talking to the people that have VY in the same group or even ahead of Rivers, Roeth, Eli..come on..
Bob Henry
Footballguy
My thoughts, too. It's not like the Titans lost Boldin and Fitz. Bennett was a decent #2 and Wade nothing more than a stop-gap and slot WR at best. The Titans have a lot of youth at WR, are likely to add more players with higher ceilings in the draft and I don't see Young regressing or not improving going forward. Eli Manning, he is not. I'm fine with swimming against the current or popular opinion here..Personnel situations are fluid and subject to change. You do own the player for his entire career in dynasty leagues.Besides that, Bobby Wade and Drew Bennett are more like #3 WRs, and the Titans have young WR talent (particularly Brandon Jones) and are sure to add another name or two in the draft.Lastly, VY threw for 26 TDs in his junior year to the likes of David Thomas, Billy Pittman, and Limas Sweed, not exactly a murderer's row of pass catching threats. He doesn't need great receivers to produce, they get open because he outlasts and eludes the pass rush.Hey... VY LoversI must remind you of something... HIS #1 AND #2 WRS HAVE LEFT HIM.And the Titans have only picked up Gage
