Dynasty Rankings (3 Viewers)

[corpcow]

Did someone actually ask "what does it matter what someone said a month ago, or weeks ago"? Lol, you're joking right. What people said in the past obviously matters or we wouldn't be debating things now. Wow.

When the whole point is to puff up your chest and act like you are some sort of God because you got one right and someone else is worthless because they got one wrong, yes. It's pointless. If we are going to do that then we need a running record of every prediction anyone makes that plays next to their Sig. How far back are we going to go? I am not impressed and it doesn't help me figure out who I should be scouting as a roster stash for the off season or help me figure out who to play in the playoffs this wknd. It's about a couple guys and their egos.Frankly, I think I am going to disappear from this thread until people start acting like adults. Or maybe it is time to start a new toolfree dynasty thread.

Uhm, I don't think F&L was puffing his chest or even saying anything about himself (or anyone else) being right. It was strictly a comment on this:

I never doubted Fosters ability this season, well at least not since Tate went down.

And, it's worth discussing because a) Foster is a very legitimate factor in both redraft and dynasty and b) many people missed it. The same thing happened with Hillis - that was someone I myself was behind going into the season and made it a priority to grab in every league. And, now, we're at a similar place with him - he finished the regular season probably in the top 5 in most leagues, and we're trying to project out his dynasty value.In my case with Foster was more a matter of not paying attention - I wasn't one of the people who said he couldn't be successful, but I also didn't pay enough attention to him to get on teh bandwagon, especially from a dynasty perspective. I still managed to grab him in a few leagues, but that was more of a VBD/luck thing than anything else).

The fact is, many people (including, apparently, Go Deep) did question his talent coming into the season. People have said the same about Hillis from a dynasty perspective... and even though I'm one of the his biggest fans, I will admit I was leery of his ability to keep up this pace long term given his running style - that is, I didn't question his ability, but I questioned his long-term dynasty prospects at the time. And I was lucky mostly in the sense that enough of my league mates questioned his ability at the time, I guess.

Now, instead of pretending we were all right about guys in the past, let's try to learn from our mistakes so we can use it to catch the next potential star.

I built a dynasty powerhouse exactly this way, adding and holding guys like Sidney Rice, Chris Johnson, Malcom Floyd, Peyton Hillis, Finley, Aaron Rodgers, Justin Tuck, Timmons, Lofton, DeAndre Levy, Harrison, Burnett, etc at severe discounts before they were ever considered studs. (I was one of the leaders of the CJ bandwagon and took him ahead of several other guys in every league, and traded Portis et al to get that pick - others were either UFAs or later picks - but the point is each of them were easily attainable). At the same time, I notably cut Stevie Johnson who I liked but wrote off as a potential stud - and I appear to be wrong on that. (Thankfully I didn't cut him in other leagues). I also let guys like Miles Austin go cheap that offseason, etc. And of course, I let Foster go for less than he was worth (and I had the cap space to compete there) because I missed the boat on that one.

I have other guys who I "believe in" like Beanie Wells, Donald Brown, Benn, Jared Cook, Bernard Scott, Emmanuel Sanders, etc and especially as they've started/stayed slow I've tried to make it a priority to add them in as many leagues as possible. The trick is, like a good poker player, I want to not just know whether I won or lost - but whether it was a good decision, and why I made that decision, and to try to improve that decision making process in the future.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

How does what someone said weeks ago matter today? How does this help us rank players or evaluate players? I guess I am missing how this pissing match is interesting to anyone. All that matters is what people have to say now about what players will do in the future, and how they justify their prognostications.

I find it hard to believe anyone would disagree with this simple guideline: When you speak in absolutes (i.e. "Its not an assumption to know that Foster is barely talented enough to be in the NFL."), there is a lot of pressure to be right.If you're wrong, at least have the decency not to show up months later acting like those words never came from your keyboard.Again, we all misread value on players. Just don't attempt to rewrite history when you're wrong.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Frankly, I think I am going to disappear from this thread until people start acting like adults. Or maybe it is time to start a new toolfree dynasty thread.

Will you be taking all of your statistical analysis, roster building theories, and keen eye for talent with you? Or just the notebook, whistle, and funny-looking hat?

 

[Go deep]

I never doubted Fosters ability this season, well at least not since Tate went down.

You are right, everyone is going to hit some and miss some, and i may end up being wrong about both Foster and Brady, that point just hasnt arrived yet.

You're kidding, right?

You were as staunchly anti-Foster as anyone in this thread before Tate went down. To wit: "Its not an assumption to know that Foster is barely talented enough to be in the NFL. People who are making it a conversation are guys hoping Foster is starting material, not guys who think he is. ... i just dont think he will ever be a starting NFL RB. He certainly is not worth a 7th round pick or first round rookie pick either."

For the record, you were still doubting Foster's talent after Tate went down. After I posted on Aug. 31 (2 weeks after Tate's injury) that you can "book it" on Foster being the stud in Houston, you responded thusly: "Beyond 2010? "

That's not all. You also added the following that day:

No, im just saying Foster wont be starting for the Texans for much longer than that broken down kick returner did, and it wont be because he suffered an injury either.

Im not sure if this is the best time to do it, but Foster owners should consider trading him sometime in the near future. Foster is an average talent who won the job because of injuries. If Tate and Slaton were both 100%, would anyone still think Foster was a top 20 dynasty back? He may have a good 2010, but his long term outlook is not good.

Two weeks after that you reiterated that Foster was a "great trade now in Dynasty leagues," advising owners to flip his early start straight up for C.J. Spiller.We all get players wrong from time to time, but let's not try to rewrite history here. Nobody had less faith in Foster this summer than you did.

Youre right, i doubted his ability to produce these kind of numbers, but once i realized he was going to get the majority of the Texans RB touches, i assumed he would put up good numbers. Want a link to the redrafts i took him in?

As far as me saying he was a great trade now, kind of reminds me of someone stating that Slaton was a great trade now each week of his rookie season, and each week he just continued to get more valuable.

Also, you had Splller ranked higher than Foster in the begining of the year too. I believe you had Foster ranked at 19 after the season started, so dont act like you had ever had him pegged as a top 10 RB.

I would go back and bump all the things you got wrong in this thread, but its really not worth my time. Its just easier to put you on my ignore list, you havnt had anything valuable to say in this thread in years anyway.

Happy Holidays to you.

 

[Hoosier16]

How about a discussion about a player's value? I'm surprised there has been very little discussion about Lloyd since the firing of McDaniels. He was somewhat controversial before the change, but now I'm not sure how people value him. What does it do to his dynasty value (can't go up) and more importantly, at least at this time, what can we expect the rest of the year? With the RB coach installed as the interim head coach, will we see a change in offensive philosophy or will we continue to see the same offense the rest of the year? Is he worth going after for the playoffs, assuming the owner of Lloyd is out of the playoffs?

 

[eaglesfan7]

How about a discussion about a player's value? I'm surprised there has been very little discussion about Lloyd since the firing of McDaniels. He was somewhat controversial before the change, but now I'm not sure how people value him. What does it do to his dynasty value (can't go up) and more importantly, at least at this time, what can we expect the rest of the year? With the RB coach installed as the interim head coach, will we see a change in offensive philosophy or will we continue to see the same offense the rest of the year? Is he worth going after for the playoffs, assuming the owner of Lloyd is out of the playoffs?

We need to see how he will be used before deciding on value. Orton and Lloyd should continue to thrive but you never know under new coaching.

 

[Concept Coop]

How about a discussion about a player's value? I'm surprised there has been very little discussion about Lloyd since the firing of McDaniels. He was somewhat controversial before the change, but now I'm not sure how people value him. What does it do to his dynasty value (can't go up) and more importantly, at least at this time, what can we expect the rest of the year? With the RB coach installed as the interim head coach, will we see a change in offensive philosophy or will we continue to see the same offense the rest of the year? Is he worth going after for the playoffs, assuming the owner of Lloyd is out of the playoffs?

I think he will still be a WR1 for the duration of this year. Denver is not going to throw out the playbook, even if they run the ball more. However, I think his dynasty value takes a hit, because he is an unkown in many regards, and will be 30 next season. I think people would be wise to wait and see what happens this season, and into the offseason before making a move for Lloyd. Unless you can get him cheap - I wouldn't pay as though I expected him to be a longterm WR2. If you swap Orton with Tebow, his value comes crashing back down to earth.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

How about a discussion about a player's value? I'm surprised there has been very little discussion about Lloyd since the firing of McDaniels. He was somewhat controversial before the change, but now I'm not sure how people value him. What does it do to his dynasty value (can't go up) and more importantly, at least at this time, what can we expect the rest of the year? With the RB coach installed as the interim head coach, will we see a change in offensive philosophy or will we continue to see the same offense the rest of the year? Is he worth going after for the playoffs, assuming the owner of Lloyd is out of the playoffs?

I think his value takes a serious hit. The Denver passing game production was largely based on volume. That's not to say Orton or Llyod were not playing well (as that would be inaccurate), but they passed an awful lot (5th most in the league in pass attempts) and that has inflated the numbers to some extent. A new coaching staff may try and balance the run pass ratio a little. Moreno has played well since coming back from injury and the offense may flow through him next season for all we know.Also you have to consider that the Broncos spent a first round pick on Demaryius Thomas and will try and work him into the game plans going forward (next year at least). Thomas and Llyod play the same type of role and have similar skill sets.The guy is 29 years old - sometimes miracle seasons like this happen. If I owned him I'd ride it out and see what happens. If you can get some one to pay for what he's done so far, I'd definately jump on it unless I needed his production for my playoff run.ETA: I see you are looking to acquire him for this season. Not sure that I would pay all that much - you would need to hope the seller sees the writing on the wall and doesn't price him based on this year's production. Bear in mind the new HC is the former RB coach so in theory it wouldn't be surprsing to expect a more balanced offense the rest of the way.

 

[Go deep]

How about a discussion about a player's value? I'm surprised there has been very little discussion about Lloyd since the firing of McDaniels. He was somewhat controversial before the change, but now I'm not sure how people value him. What does it do to his dynasty value (can't go up) and more importantly, at least at this time, what can we expect the rest of the year? With the RB coach installed as the interim head coach, will we see a change in offensive philosophy or will we continue to see the same offense the rest of the year? Is he worth going after for the playoffs, assuming the owner of Lloyd is out of the playoffs?

I want to write him off now with Mcdaniels gone, but Orton never fails to suprise me. I think it is very possible he can remain a #1 QB, and he really seems to like Lloyd. I have been burned by Lloyd before, so i dont trust his long term outlook, but i do think he will continue to put up WR1 numbers for the last few weeks of this season.

 

[thriftyrocker]

How about a discussion about a player's value? I'm surprised there has been very little discussion about Lloyd since the firing of McDaniels. He was somewhat controversial before the change, but now I'm not sure how people value him. What does it do to his dynasty value (can't go up) and more importantly, at least at this time, what can we expect the rest of the year? With the RB coach installed as the interim head coach, will we see a change in offensive philosophy or will we continue to see the same offense the rest of the year? Is he worth going after for the playoffs, assuming the owner of Lloyd is out of the playoffs?

We need to see how he will be used before deciding on value. Orton and Lloyd should continue to thrive but you never know under new coaching.

They have to run the ball more. It's the RB coach. The guy's claim to fame is helping Tiki and Lynch mature. The OC McCoy will now call the plays, and he comes from Carolina when they were a conservative, running team. I don't think Lloyd loses much value for this year. He will still be the main downfield threat and the Bronco WR with the best chance to score points. Only statement Studesville has really made is Orton will continue to start.Whether Lloyd is a buy or not, I don't know. It all comes down to talent. If you believe in his talent, you should buy even if you think Tebow will start next year. If you don't believe in his talent, the price is too high for a playoff push. I don't think the Lloyd owner will appreciate the risk and seachange here. I'm not buying. Moreno's probably a better buy, IMO.

 

[Herm23]

I never doubted Fosters ability this season, well at least not since Tate went down.

You are right, everyone is going to hit some and miss some, and i may end up being wrong about both Foster and Brady, that point just hasnt arrived yet.

You're kidding, right?

You were as staunchly anti-Foster as anyone in this thread before Tate went down. To wit: "Its not an assumption to know that Foster is barely talented enough to be in the NFL. People who are making it a conversation are guys hoping Foster is starting material, not guys who think he is. ... i just dont think he will ever be a starting NFL RB. He certainly is not worth a 7th round pick or first round rookie pick either."

For the record, you were still doubting Foster's talent after Tate went down. After I posted on Aug. 31 (2 weeks after Tate's injury) that you can "book it" on Foster being the stud in Houston, you responded thusly: "Beyond 2010? "

That's not all. You also added the following that day:

No, im just saying Foster wont be starting for the Texans for much longer than that broken down kick returner did, and it wont be because he suffered an injury either.

Im not sure if this is the best time to do it, but Foster owners should consider trading him sometime in the near future. Foster is an average talent who won the job because of injuries. If Tate and Slaton were both 100%, would anyone still think Foster was a top 20 dynasty back? He may have a good 2010, but his long term outlook is not good.

Two weeks after that you reiterated that Foster was a "great trade now in Dynasty leagues," advising owners to flip his early start straight up for C.J. Spiller.We all get players wrong from time to time, but let's not try to rewrite history here. Nobody had less faith in Foster this summer than you did.

Youre right, i doubted his ability to produce these kind of numbers, but once i realized he was going to get the majority of the Texans RB touches, i assumed he would put up good numbers. Want a link to the redrafts i took him in?

As far as me saying he was a great trade now, kind of reminds me of someone stating that Slaton was a great trade now each week of his rookie season, and each week he just continued to get more valuable.

Also, you had Splller ranked higher than Foster in the begining of the year too. I believe you had Foster ranked at 19 after the season started, so dont act like you had ever had him pegged as a top 10 RB.

I would go back and bump all the things you got wrong in this thread, but its really not worth my time. Its just easier to put you on my ignore list, you havnt had anything valuable to say in this thread in years anyway.

Happy Holidays to you.

Not to get in the middle of this pissing match (that just sounds gross, by the way), but F&L's takes on Chris Johnson 2 years ago and Arian Foster this past year are far more valuable than ANYTHING you have ever put forth in this thread and likely ever will. That's not to say you don't provide insight and help the thread because you do, but those are 2 pretty significant calls that very, very few people were willing to make that likely lead many people to make both players the backbone of championship teams. I can personally attribute some of my hitching my wagon to Foster in many, many legs to F&L's belief in him and his ability to speak in absolutes about his value before the season started.If we are going to stack things up relatively, I would say there are few, if any, posters that have brought more to the table in this thread than F&L. You say that he hasn't had anything valuable to contribute in years, but I say that just in the past 3 years, he was on the ground floor of the Chris Johnson, Miles Austin, Jamaal Charles, and Arian Foster bandwagon. That's some pretty heavy contributions. Say what you want about his writing style (I admit it is a bit caustic and certainly trends towards the abbrasive side at times), but his track record pretty much speaks for itself and when he gets behind a player, we generally ALL benefit from heeding his advice and following suit. Like anybody, he's not perfect and is going to get some wrong, but from everything I have ever read, he gets far more right than wrong...and he even tends to get a lot of the out of nowhere players right too.

To F&L's point, track record is a pretty important thing to take into account when someone is making statements about players in this thread. If a poster is staunchly against someone, tells everyone he is going to be a bust, flop, won't make it, etc... and then turns around and says he was a supporter of the player all along after the player succeeds, it DOES provide value to many of the people who frequent this thread to note that the poster was not, in fact, a supporter. It's not a matter of calling anyone out, as I miss calls, F&L misses calls, EVERYONE misses calls. It's a matter of identifying where you were wrong, not making it seem like you are omnicient and get every call right, and then identifying and discussing WHY you were wrong so the next time an Arian Foster or a Chris Johnson or a Hakeem Nicks comes along, we ALL can be right.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Two of the players F&L hyped preseason were Jacoby Jones and Johnny Knox. He had strong rankings on them.

Jones has fallen flat. F&L pointed to stats on Jones' success rate when AJ is double covered as reason to buy. Given Walter and Daniels haven't done anything this year either - wha' happened? Jones' target numbers are slightly up, his yardage is slightly up, but he's still worthless to fantasy owners. I've always liked his upside, but at this point it seems he'll never put it together.

Knox has been serviceable. If you put last year's TD rate on this year's stats, he'd be having a good year. The fact that Bennett is getting targets (hot reads) that Knox used to get is disconcerting. Are we seeing Knox's upside? Is there any reason to hope for more, or is he just a WR3 (at best) for the next few years. He seems to fit Martz's mold for WRs, but I guess it was wrong to expect Mike Furrey.

 

[Go deep]

I never doubted Fosters ability this season, well at least not since Tate went down.

You are right, everyone is going to hit some and miss some, and i may end up being wrong about both Foster and Brady, that point just hasnt arrived yet.

You're kidding, right?

You were as staunchly anti-Foster as anyone in this thread before Tate went down. To wit: "Its not an assumption to know that Foster is barely talented enough to be in the NFL. People who are making it a conversation are guys hoping Foster is starting material, not guys who think he is. ... i just dont think he will ever be a starting NFL RB. He certainly is not worth a 7th round pick or first round rookie pick either."

For the record, you were still doubting Foster's talent after Tate went down. After I posted on Aug. 31 (2 weeks after Tate's injury) that you can "book it" on Foster being the stud in Houston, you responded thusly: "Beyond 2010? "

That's not all. You also added the following that day:

No, im just saying Foster wont be starting for the Texans for much longer than that broken down kick returner did, and it wont be because he suffered an injury either.

Im not sure if this is the best time to do it, but Foster owners should consider trading him sometime in the near future. Foster is an average talent who won the job because of injuries. If Tate and Slaton were both 100%, would anyone still think Foster was a top 20 dynasty back? He may have a good 2010, but his long term outlook is not good.

Two weeks after that you reiterated that Foster was a "great trade now in Dynasty leagues," advising owners to flip his early start straight up for C.J. Spiller.We all get players wrong from time to time, but let's not try to rewrite history here. Nobody had less faith in Foster this summer than you did.

Youre right, i doubted his ability to produce these kind of numbers, but once i realized he was going to get the majority of the Texans RB touches, i assumed he would put up good numbers. Want a link to the redrafts i took him in?

As far as me saying he was a great trade now, kind of reminds me of someone stating that Slaton was a great trade now each week of his rookie season, and each week he just continued to get more valuable.

Also, you had Splller ranked higher than Foster in the begining of the year too. I believe you had Foster ranked at 19 after the season started, so dont act like you had ever had him pegged as a top 10 RB.

I would go back and bump all the things you got wrong in this thread, but its really not worth my time. Its just easier to put you on my ignore list, you havnt had anything valuable to say in this thread in years anyway.

Happy Holidays to you.

Not to get in the middle of this pissing match (that just sounds gross, by the way), but F&L's takes on Chris Johnson 2 years ago and Arian Foster this past year are far more valuable than ANYTHING you have ever put forth in this thread and likely ever will. That's not to say you don't provide insight and help the thread because you do, but those are 2 pretty significant calls that very, very few people were willing to make that likely lead many people to make both players the backbone of championship teams. I can personally attribute some of my hitching my wagon to Foster in many, many legs to F&L's belief in him and his ability to speak in absolutes about his value before the season started.If we are going to stack things up relatively, I would say there are few, if any, posters that have brought more to the table in this thread than F&L. You say that he hasn't had anything valuable to contribute in years, but I say that just in the past 3 years, he was on the ground floor of the Chris Johnson, Miles Austin, Jamaal Charles, and Arian Foster bandwagon. That's some pretty heavy contributions. Say what you want about his writing style (I admit it is a bit caustic and certainly trends towards the abbrasive side at times), but his track record pretty much speaks for itself and when he gets behind a player, we generally ALL benefit from heeding his advice and following suit. Like anybody, he's not perfect and is going to get some wrong, but from everything I have ever read, he gets far more right than wrong...and he even tends to get a lot of the out of nowhere players right too.

To F&L's point, track record is a pretty important thing to take into account when someone is making statements about players in this thread. If a poster is staunchly against someone, tells everyone he is going to be a bust, flop, won't make it, etc... and then turns around and says he was a supporter of the player all along after the player succeeds, it DOES provide value to many of the people who frequent this thread to note that the poster was not, in fact, a supporter. It's not a matter of calling anyone out, as I miss calls, F&L misses calls, EVERYONE misses calls. It's a matter of identifying where you were wrong, not making it seem like you are omnicient and get every call right, and then identifying and discussing WHY you were wrong so the next time an Arian Foster or a Chris Johnson or a Hakeem Nicks comes along, we ALL can be right.

I was as high as anyone on Chris Johnson, as were alot of people. Im not saying F&L doesnt know his stuff, he does, but i think it has gone to his head. There are alot of people who know as much here that i dont need F&L to bump something i was wrong on every time i post. I come to this thread and these boards to discuss FF with other people who share my interest/obsession, and i try to treat others with respect. One of the biggest problems on these boards is people take it personally when someone disagrees with them. Nobody is a bigger example of this than F&L. I come here for fun and to learn, i am not here to compete, for board cred, or for pissing matches(even though i have been suckered in a few times) Ive debated with F&L about players in the past that i have been right about and him wrong, and didnt dig through past pages to bump them in an attempt to show my supremecy, or to belittle. Well, maybe the Bradshaw/Jacobs debate, but only after his 10th time of mentioning Slaton/Foster.

Either way, i dont care what someone contributes, if it takes the fun of discussing FF out, i have no interest in what that person has to say. Like i said, im not here to win a popularity contest or board cred, i just come here for some fun friendly FF discussion, and maybe to learn something here and there. When i find someone who isnt capable of that, i put them on ignore and move on. Its not personal, and i have no hard feelings, its just not what i come here for.

 

[Concept Coop]

Not to get in the middle of this pissing match (that just sounds gross, by the way), but F&L's takes on Chris Johnson 2 years ago and Arian Foster this past year are far more valuable than ANYTHING you have ever put forth in this thread and likely ever will. That's not to say you don't provide insight and help the thread because you do, but those are 2 pretty significant calls that very, very few people were willing to make that likely lead many people to make both players the backbone of championship teams. I can personally attribute some of my hitching my wagon to Foster in many, many legs to F&L's belief in him and his ability to speak in absolutes about his value before the season started.If we are going to stack things up relatively, I would say there are few, if any, posters that have brought more to the table in this thread than F&L. You say that he hasn't had anything valuable to contribute in years, but I say that just in the past 3 years, he was on the ground floor of the Chris Johnson, Miles Austin, Jamaal Charles, and Arian Foster bandwagon. That's some pretty heavy contributions. Say what you want about his writing style (I admit it is a bit caustic and certainly trends towards the abbrasive side at times), but his track record pretty much speaks for itself and when he gets behind a player, we generally ALL benefit from heeding his advice and following suit. Like anybody, he's not perfect and is going to get some wrong, but from everything I have ever read, he gets far more right than wrong...and he even tends to get a lot of the out of nowhere players right too.To F&L's point, track record is a pretty important thing to take into account when someone is making statements about players in this thread. If a poster is staunchly against someone, tells everyone he is going to be a bust, flop, won't make it, etc... and then turns around and says he was a supporter of the player all along after the player succeeds, it DOES provide value to many of the people who frequent this thread to note that the poster was not, in fact, a supporter. It's not a matter of calling anyone out, as I miss calls, F&L misses calls, EVERYONE misses calls. It's a matter of identifying where you were wrong, not making it seem like you are omnicient and get every call right, and then identifying and discussing WHY you were wrong so the next time an Arian Foster or a Chris Johnson or a Hakeem Nicks comes along, we ALL can be right.

Your statements are both subjective and hyperbolic - you have no idea how the information in this thread is being used, by whom, or to what extent. Telling someone that thier posts haven't or never will have the impact of another's is simply silly. Do you really think that having Arian Foster at 19 (lower than CJ Spiller) "won leagues"? He was a 24 year old runningback in a top offense whose only competition (for the year) was Steve Slaton. I think 19 was pretty safe. If F&L points out where GD said that people should trade Spiller for Foster, then couldn't others do the same to him, having Foster lower than Spiller in his rankings? After Foster's 42 point game, the line in the sand was clear: long term talent or short term sitiuation? F&L was right and should get credit. But lets not pretend that he being slightly ahead of the curve, "won leagues." There were a lot of threads and posts clamoring about Foster. I am not saying that Go Deep contributes any more or less than F&L. For the record, I don't think there is anything wrong with F&L calling out Go Deep. I don't even mind the manner in which he did, as we are all adults on the internet and shouldn't have to coddle anybody.

 

[Go deep]

Not to get in the middle of this pissing match (that just sounds gross, by the way), but F&L's takes on Chris Johnson 2 years ago and Arian Foster this past year are far more valuable than ANYTHING you have ever put forth in this thread and likely ever will. That's not to say you don't provide insight and help the thread because you do, but those are 2 pretty significant calls that very, very few people were willing to make that likely lead many people to make both players the backbone of championship teams. I can personally attribute some of my hitching my wagon to Foster in many, many legs to F&L's belief in him and his ability to speak in absolutes about his value before the season started.

If we are going to stack things up relatively, I would say there are few, if any, posters that have brought more to the table in this thread than F&L. You say that he hasn't had anything valuable to contribute in years, but I say that just in the past 3 years, he was on the ground floor of the Chris Johnson, Miles Austin, Jamaal Charles, and Arian Foster bandwagon. That's some pretty heavy contributions. Say what you want about his writing style (I admit it is a bit caustic and certainly trends towards the abbrasive side at times), but his track record pretty much speaks for itself and when he gets behind a player, we generally ALL benefit from heeding his advice and following suit. Like anybody, he's not perfect and is going to get some wrong, but from everything I have ever read, he gets far more right than wrong...and he even tends to get a lot of the out of nowhere players right too.

To F&L's point, track record is a pretty important thing to take into account when someone is making statements about players in this thread. If a poster is staunchly against someone, tells everyone he is going to be a bust, flop, won't make it, etc... and then turns around and says he was a supporter of the player all along after the player succeeds, it DOES provide value to many of the people who frequent this thread to note that the poster was not, in fact, a supporter. It's not a matter of calling anyone out, as I miss calls, F&L misses calls, EVERYONE misses calls. It's a matter of identifying where you were wrong, not making it seem like you are omnicient and get every call right, and then identifying and discussing WHY you were wrong so the next time an Arian Foster or a Chris Johnson or a Hakeem Nicks comes along, we ALL can be right.

Your statements are both subjective and hyperbolic - you have no idea how the information in this thread is being used, by whom, or to what extent. Telling someone that thier posts haven't or never will have the impact of another's is simply silly. Do you really think that having Arian Foster at 19 (lower than CJ Spiller) "won leagues"? He was a 24 year old runningback in a top offense whose only competition (for the year) was Steve Slaton. I think 19 was pretty safe. If F&L points out where GD said that people should trade Spiller for Foster, then couldn't others do the same to him, having Foster lower than Spiller in his rankings? After Foster's 42 point game, the line in the sand was clear: long term talent or short term sitiuation? F&L was right and should get credit. But lets not pretend that he being slightly ahead of the curve, "won leagues." There were a lot of threads and posts clamoring about Foster. I am not saying that Go Deep contributes any more or less than F&L.

For the record, I don't think there is anything wrong with F&L calling out Go Deep. I don't even mind the manner in which he did, as we are all adults on the internet and shouldn't have to coddle anybody.

I dont mind the occasional bumping of a debate, but there has to be a line otherwise threads would be filled with people bumping debates they "won". Thats not my problem with F&L(and some others) though. They take things too personally and are more interested in "winning" a debate or board cred than friendly fantasy discussion.

 

[jdoggydogg]

Two of the players F&L hyped preseason were Jacoby Jones and Johnny Knox. He had strong rankings on them.Jones has fallen flat. F&L pointed to stats on Jones' success rate when AJ is double covered as reason to buy. Given Walter and Daniels haven't done anything this year either - wha' happened? Jones' target numbers are slightly up, his yardage is slightly up, but he's still worthless to fantasy owners. I've always liked his upside, but at this point it seems he'll never put it together.Knox has been serviceable. If you put last year's TD rate on this year's stats, he'd be having a good year. The fact that Bennett is getting targets (hot reads) that Knox used to get is disconcerting. Are we seeing Knox's upside? Is there any reason to hope for more, or is he just a WR3 (at best) for the next few years. He seems to fit Martz's mold for WRs, but I guess it was wrong to expect Mike Furrey.

I don't remember reading anything by F&L where he claimed to be correct about every ranking.

 

[Concept Coop]

Two of the players F&L hyped preseason were Jacoby Jones and Johnny Knox. He had strong rankings on them.Jones has fallen flat. F&L pointed to stats on Jones' success rate when AJ is double covered as reason to buy. Given Walter and Daniels haven't done anything this year either - wha' happened? Jones' target numbers are slightly up, his yardage is slightly up, but he's still worthless to fantasy owners. I've always liked his upside, but at this point it seems he'll never put it together.Knox has been serviceable. If you put last year's TD rate on this year's stats, he'd be having a good year. The fact that Bennett is getting targets (hot reads) that Knox used to get is disconcerting. Are we seeing Knox's upside? Is there any reason to hope for more, or is he just a WR3 (at best) for the next few years. He seems to fit Martz's mold for WRs, but I guess it was wrong to expect Mike Furrey.

I don't remember reading anything by F&L where he claimed to be correct about every ranking.

I think he was respondig to Herm, who claimed that F&L is and always will be a more valuable poster, because he hit on Foster and CJ.

 

[mlball77]

For me, I don't care nearly as much about where a poster ranks a player as much as the why behind it. I know SSOG has a whole philosophy on process vs. outcome. I largely share his view on that, but couldn't have expressed it nearly so well as he has (on a couple of occasions in this thread I think).

You can be wrong on players despite having strong reasoning on your ranking of them... and you can be right on players (where you rank them) for all the wrong reasons. This is why I like hearing why your rank someone where you do. I can read your analysis and determine if I think it is sound or not. And when I come across what seems to be sound analysis, this is the type of stuff that makes me move players in my rankings. That's the type of discussion I personally love in this thread.

On the Foster topic, I think a sound case could have been made and was made for being down on him heading into this season. However, things lined up for him to get a big chance this year and boy did he take full advantage. -And I think it is fair to say that the vast majority of folks underestimated Foster's talent for quite a while... sure, some changed course sooner than others... but I think at this point we're talking about the varying degrees of how wrong most of us were on him.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Two of the players F&L hyped preseason were Jacoby Jones and Johnny Knox. He had strong rankings on them.Jones has fallen flat. F&L pointed to stats on Jones' success rate when AJ is double covered as reason to buy. Given Walter and Daniels haven't done anything this year either - wha' happened? Jones' target numbers are slightly up, his yardage is slightly up, but he's still worthless to fantasy owners. I've always liked his upside, but at this point it seems he'll never put it together.Knox has been serviceable. If you put last year's TD rate on this year's stats, he'd be having a good year. The fact that Bennett is getting targets (hot reads) that Knox used to get is disconcerting. Are we seeing Knox's upside? Is there any reason to hope for more, or is he just a WR3 (at best) for the next few years. He seems to fit Martz's mold for WRs, but I guess it was wrong to expect Mike Furrey.

I don't remember reading anything by F&L where he claimed to be correct about every ranking.

I didn't realize every time we revisited hyped young players it was to face somebody. This is more to good process/bad process - there were legit reasons to hype these players so why haven't they delivered. Just as there were legit reasons to hype Demaryius and reasons his first season was hit and miss (and more miss than hit).

I think he was respondig to Herm, who claimed that F&L is and always will be a more valuable poster, because he hit on Foster and CJ.

F&L is the only reason this thread exists. He's the MVPoster and the thread suffers when he's too busy or annoyed to post here.I respect F&L just as much for changing course on a player like Charles (who he didn't like when he was a COP to Larry Johnson but liked very much when he delivered as a starter) as I do for him hyping Foster, Johnson, Harvin, etc. My purpose was to ask if he's changed course on these players. If Jacoby is a bust (he still has the tools) and if the modest output we're getting from Knox is about the best we can hope for (he still has speed and hands). Obviously these players have negligible trade value so if you want to just talk about Foster again, I'll hang up and listen.

 

[Go deep]

For me, I don't care nearly as much about where a poster ranks a player as much as the why behind it. I know SSOG has a whole philosophy on process vs. outcome. I largely share his view on that, but couldn't have expressed it nearly so well as he has (on a couple of occasions in this thread I think).You can be wrong on players despite having strong reasoning on your ranking of them... and you can be right on players (where you rank them) for all the wrong reasons. This is why I like hearing why your rank someone where you do. I can read your analysis and determine if I think it is sound or not. And when I come across what seems to be sound analysis, this is the type of stuff that makes me move players in my rankings. That's the type of discussion I personally love in this thread.On the Foster topic, I think a sound case could have been made and was made for being down on him heading into this season. However, things lined up for him to get a big chance this year and boy did he take full advantage. -And I think it is fair to say that the vast majority of folks underestimated Foster's talent for quite a while... sure, some changed course sooner than others... but I think at this point we're talking about the varying degrees of how wrong most of us were on him.

When someone post their rankings its the discussion of them where people benefit, not the actual rankings. I would just prefer it if people could disagree with each other without it turning into a pissing match.

 

[I was in the pool]

Here is fuel for the "personal rankings" fire. These are my updated Dynasty rankings for QB. I only think about 3 years out in terms of projections - not their entire career. So age is a factor, but not a huge advantage by itself. Other positions to follow.

1 Rodgers

2 Vick

3 Rivers

4 Brees

5 Peyton

6 Big Ben

7 Romo

8 Brady

9 Ryan

10 Bradford

11 Eli Manning

12 Schaub

13 Orton

14 Flacco

15 Freeman

16 Cutler

17 Sanchez

18 Stafford

19 Fitzpatrick

20 Kolb

21 Cassel

22 Palmer

23 McNabb

24 V.Young

25 C.McCoy

 

[Go deep]

Here is fuel for the "personal rankings" fire. These are my updated Dynasty rankings for QB. I only think about 3 years out in terms of projections - not their entire career. So age is a factor, but not a huge advantage by itself. Other positions to follow.1 Rodgers2 Vick3 Rivers4 Brees5 Peyton6 Big Ben7 Romo8 Brady9 Ryan10 Bradford11 Eli Manning12 Schaub13 Orton14 Flacco15 Freeman16 Cutler17 Sanchez18 Stafford19 Fitzpatrick20 Kolb21 Cassel22 Palmer23 McNabb24 V.Young25 C.McCoy

Looks pretty good to me, with the biggest exception being Vick. I understand why someone would have him that high, but i do not trust him long term, and there is no way i would want to count on him as my #1 past this season. Bradford is going too be the consensus #1 fantasy QB within 3 years.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Here is fuel for the "personal rankings" fire. These are my updated Dynasty rankings for QB. I only think about 3 years out in terms of projections - not their entire career. So age is a factor, but not a huge advantage by itself. Other positions to follow.1 Rodgers2 Vick3 Rivers4 Brees5 Peyton6 Big Ben7 Romo8 Brady9 Ryan10 Bradford11 Eli Manning12 Schaub13 Orton14 Flacco15 Freeman16 Cutler17 Sanchez18 Stafford19 Fitzpatrick20 Kolb21 Cassel22 Palmer23 McNabb24 V.Young25 C.McCoy

Six seems pretty high for Ben. Eight seems pretty low for Brady.

 

[mlball77]

Here is fuel for the "personal rankings" fire. These are my updated Dynasty rankings for QB. I only think about 3 years out in terms of projections - not their entire career. So age is a factor, but not a huge advantage by itself. Other positions to follow.

1 Rodgers

2 Vick

3 Rivers

4 Brees

5 Peyton

6 Big Ben

7 Romo

8 Brady

9 Ryan

10 Bradford

11 Eli Manning

12 Schaub

13 Orton

14 Flacco

15 Freeman

16 Cutler

17 Sanchez

18 Stafford

19 Fitzpatrick

20 Kolb

21 Cassel

22 Palmer

23 McNabb

24 V.Young

25 C.McCoy

Looks pretty good to me, with the biggest exception being Vick. I understand why someone would have him that high, but i do not trust him long term, and there is no way i would want to count on him as my #1 past this season.

Bradford is going too be the consensus #1 fantasy QB within 3 years.

Wasn't the bolded basically said about Matt Ryan after or during his rookie year (or something similar at least)? I guess that still could happen for him, but sometimes I think we give people too much credit too early (or write them off too quickly).ETA: I beleive I might be thinking of numerous P. Manning comparisons for M Ryan.

 

[Go deep]

Here is fuel for the "personal rankings" fire. These are my updated Dynasty rankings for QB. I only think about 3 years out in terms of projections - not their entire career. So age is a factor, but not a huge advantage by itself. Other positions to follow.

1 Rodgers

2 Vick

3 Rivers

4 Brees

5 Peyton

6 Big Ben

7 Romo

8 Brady

9 Ryan

10 Bradford

11 Eli Manning

12 Schaub

13 Orton

14 Flacco

15 Freeman

16 Cutler

17 Sanchez

18 Stafford

19 Fitzpatrick

20 Kolb

21 Cassel

22 Palmer

23 McNabb

24 V.Young

25 C.McCoy

Looks pretty good to me, with the biggest exception being Vick. I understand why someone would have him that high, but i do not trust him long term, and there is no way i would want to count on him as my #1 past this season.

Bradford is going too be the consensus #1 fantasy QB within 3 years.

Wasn't the bolded basically said about Matt Ryan after or during his rookie year (or something similar at least)? I guess that still could happen for him, but sometimes I think we give people too much credit too early (or write them off too quickly).

I really liked, and still like Matt Ryan, and think he could be a top 5 QB in the future, but he is no Sam Bradford. Bradford is already one of the most accurate and smartest QB's in the league. The sky is the limit for this kid. I dont think there is such a thing as giving someone credit too early when it comes to dynasty FF, if you wait too long, you miss out.

 

[PranksterJD]

Six seems pretty high for Ben. Eight seems pretty low for Brady.

Ben's the #5 QB in my league since he came back, so calling him #6 can't be too far off. Regardless, those top 8 are the top 8 in some order, with a significant drop after.When I try to pull tiers out of this list its Schaub and Stafford who seem the most out of place. Schaub has been riding last year's numbers for too long now, and the market needs to correct itself. I'm apprehensive of Stafford's injuries, but this guy has the skills to be in the top 5 ( as long as he's got Calvin ), and he's a gamer. Definitely in the Ryan, Bradford tier for me ( though just behind both )

I really liked, and still like Matt Ryan, and think he could be a top 5 QB in the future, but he is no Sam Bradford. Bradford is already one of the most accurate and smartest QB's in the league. The sky is the limit for this kid. I dont think there is such a thing as giving someone credit too early when it comes to dynasty FF, if you wait too long, you miss out.

Interestingly ( and I've got Bradford a spot over Ryan, so not really chastizing this pick ), but Ryan is known for being an uber-cerebral QB, and he had a higher completion percentage his rookie year than Bradford does now. He's also got almost identical TD and INT percentages, while Ryan had a dramatically better YPA ( 7.9 to 6.0 ). I'm not willing to put that entirely on Roddy White.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Looks pretty good to me, with the biggest exception being Vick. I understand why someone would have him that high, but i do not trust him long term, and there is no way i would want to count on him as my #1 past this season.

Bradford is going too be the consensus #1 fantasy QB within 3 years.

Wasn't the bolded basically said about Matt Ryan after or during his rookie year (or something similar at least)? I guess that still could happen for him, but sometimes I think we give people too much credit too early (or write them off too quickly).

I really liked, and still like Matt Ryan, and think he could be a top 5 QB in the future, but he is no Sam Bradford. Bradford is already one of the most accurate and smartest QB's in the league. The sky is the limit for this kid. I dont think there is such a thing as giving someone credit too early when it comes to dynasty FF, if you wait too long, you miss out.

Ryan's completion percentage and YPA from 2008 are slightly better than Bradford's. (Both are surefire and don't fault anyone for picking a favorite between the two.)Why don't you trust Vick past this season? Eagles are pretty sure to either resign, franchise, or hold onto kicking and screaming for 2011. Injuries, defenses adjusting, and being fat and lazy after a new contract are all pretty minimal concerns IMO as well. His intangibles (leadership, 4th quarter willing to victory, etc.) have been off the charts great this year as well.

 

[I was in the pool]

I have watched every snap of Ryan's since he came to Atlanta and the improvements have been immense. The most recent example is the way he gutted out the win on Sunday. The clinching throw was a roll-out (to his left) and a pinpoint throw to Jenkins for the TD on 3rd down in the red zone - one the road - against a good team - in December. I see a lot of Peyton in him (not predicting the future) as I watch all the Colts' games as well. Ryan is leading the huddle, offense and team exponentially more than the first two seasons and that will continue. He is another year or so away from running the entire offense at the line of scrimmage. He may never be a fantasy football monster (with all those compliments of his game, I still have him 9th in my rankings), but he will be a top QB in the league in terms of engineering long drives for scores, controlling the clock and getting the offense into the right plays for years to come (all good qualities that Peyton has demonstrated).

 

[I was in the pool]

I have Vick 2nd because I believe he will start in Philly in 2011 - after that - who knows...

but he has the highest ceiling of any QB on a week-in, week-out basis. Barring injury, he could outscore the #2 QB in 2011 by 50 pts. or more - a huge edge. A trade or extended lockout could move him down some, but that is not a sure thing right now.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Wonder where Luck fits in this list

 

[Go deep]

Six seems pretty high for Ben. Eight seems pretty low for Brady.

Ben's the #5 QB in my league since he came back, so calling him #6 can't be too far off. Regardless, those top 8 are the top 8 in some order, with a significant drop after.When I try to pull tiers out of this list its Schaub and Stafford who seem the most out of place. Schaub has been riding last year's numbers for too long now, and the market needs to correct itself. I'm apprehensive of Stafford's injuries, but this guy has the skills to be in the top 5 ( as long as he's got Calvin ), and he's a gamer. Definitely in the Ryan, Bradford tier for me ( though just behind both )

I really liked, and still like Matt Ryan, and think he could be a top 5 QB in the future, but he is no Sam Bradford. Bradford is already one of the most accurate and smartest QB's in the league. The sky is the limit for this kid. I dont think there is such a thing as giving someone credit too early when it comes to dynasty FF, if you wait too long, you miss out.

Interestingly ( and I've got Bradford a spot over Ryan, so not really chastizing this pick ), but Ryan is known for being an uber-cerebral QB, and he had a higher completion percentage his rookie year than Bradford does now. He's also got almost identical TD and INT percentages, while Ryan had a dramatically better YPA ( 7.9 to 6.0 ). I'm not willing to put that entirely on Roddy White.

Im not really basing my thoughts on stats as much as watching them play. Again, im a big fan of Ryan, before Bradford came around, i said i liked him as much as any QB coming out of college since the Manning brothers. I just like Bradford more. I think Ryan walked into a much better situation than Bradford. Both had good running games, but everything else about the Falcons was better. The Rams didnt start with good WR's, and how many have they lost to injury so far? Nevermind a rookie, a good veteran QB would have a hard time doing what Bradford has done with a bunch of 4th and 5th string WR's. He made Mark Clayton look like Jerry Rice before he got hurt.Im not that good at putting what i see into words, but when i watch Bradford play, i just see that "it" thing that only the greats have. He sees things that most QB's dont, he reads defenses like a veteran, and like i said already, is one of the most accurate QB's in the league. When i think of Ryan, i feel pretty strongly that he will be a very good Qb for a long time, and maybe even a top 5 QB, but it wouldnt be a huge shock if i were wrong. With Bradford, i feel strangely confident that he will go down as one of the best QB's ever when all is said and done.

 

[Go deep]

I have watched every snap of Ryan's since he came to Atlanta and the improvements have been immense. The most recent example is the way he gutted out the win on Sunday. The clinching throw was a roll-out (to his left) and a pinpoint throw to Jenkins for the TD on 3rd down in the red zone - one the road - against a good team - in December. I see a lot of Peyton in him (not predicting the future) as I watch all the Colts' games as well. Ryan is leading the huddle, offense and team exponentially more than the first two seasons and that will continue. He is another year or so away from running the entire offense at the line of scrimmage. He may never be a fantasy football monster (with all those compliments of his game, I still have him 9th in my rankings), but he will be a top QB in the league in terms of engineering long drives for scores, controlling the clock and getting the offense into the right plays for years to come (all good qualities that Peyton has demonstrated).

Sounds more like Tom Brady than Peyton Manning.

 

[mlball77]

Here is fuel for the "personal rankings" fire. These are my updated Dynasty rankings for QB. I only think about 3 years out in terms of projections - not their entire career. So age is a factor, but not a huge advantage by itself. Other positions to follow.

1 Rodgers

2 Vick

3 Rivers

4 Brees

5 Peyton

6 Big Ben

7 Romo

8 Brady

9 Ryan

10 Bradford

11 Eli Manning

12 Schaub

13 Orton

14 Flacco

15 Freeman

16 Cutler

17 Sanchez

18 Stafford

19 Fitzpatrick

20 Kolb

21 Cassel

22 Palmer

23 McNabb

24 V.Young

25 C.McCoy

Looks pretty good to me, with the biggest exception being Vick. I understand why someone would have him that high, but i do not trust him long term, and there is no way i would want to count on him as my #1 past this season.

Bradford is going too be the consensus #1 fantasy QB within 3 years.

Wasn't the bolded basically said about Matt Ryan after or during his rookie year (or something similar at least)? I guess that still could happen for him, but sometimes I think we give people too much credit too early (or write them off too quickly).

I really liked, and still like Matt Ryan, and think he could be a top 5 QB in the future, but he is no Sam Bradford. Bradford is already one of the most accurate and smartest QB's in the league. The sky is the limit for this kid. I dont think there is such a thing as giving someone credit too early when it comes to dynasty FF, if you wait too long, you miss out.

I see what you're saying, and I definitely agree that with some prospects you will miss out if you aren't on the train early. However, there are definitely cases where guys were given too much credit too early, or maybe better phrased, undeserved credit. Steve Slaton comes to mind here, maybe Forte and Kevin Smith as well (I'm picking on that RB class, LOL).

 

[Go deep]

Looks pretty good to me, with the biggest exception being Vick. I understand why someone would have him that high, but i do not trust him long term, and there is no way i would want to count on him as my #1 past this season.

Bradford is going too be the consensus #1 fantasy QB within 3 years.

Wasn't the bolded basically said about Matt Ryan after or during his rookie year (or something similar at least)? I guess that still could happen for him, but sometimes I think we give people too much credit too early (or write them off too quickly).

I really liked, and still like Matt Ryan, and think he could be a top 5 QB in the future, but he is no Sam Bradford. Bradford is already one of the most accurate and smartest QB's in the league. The sky is the limit for this kid. I dont think there is such a thing as giving someone credit too early when it comes to dynasty FF, if you wait too long, you miss out.

Ryan's completion percentage and YPA from 2008 are slightly better than Bradford's. (Both are surefire and don't fault anyone for picking a favorite between the two.)Why don't you trust Vick past this season? Eagles are pretty sure to either resign, franchise, or hold onto kicking and screaming for 2011. Injuries, defenses adjusting, and being fat and lazy after a new contract are all pretty minimal concerns IMO as well. His intangibles (leadership, 4th quarter willing to victory, etc.) have been off the charts great this year as well.

Your right, those things have been off the charts this year, but where were those things in the past? There is no doubt he has looked like a completely different passer this year than he has ever looked before, but thats my biggest issue. Is this a career year because he had something to prove, has everything just aligned perfectly for him this season? He has looked like a smarter Qb on the filed, but is he going to stay smart off the field? Does he get lazy after a big pay day? While QB's can continue to excel into their 30's, most of them dont count on their feet as much as Vick. Not too mention his running makes his more prone to injuries.

As QB2, that means someone would need to take him in the first two rounds of a dynasty startup, and more likely the first round. would anyone really feel comfortable taking him there? I wouldnt mind taking a chance on him in round 5-6 because of his upside if i could pair him with a safe/steady QB like Flacco or Eli, but no way i would want to count on him with Henne as my backup.

 

[Go deep]

Here is fuel for the "personal rankings" fire. These are my updated Dynasty rankings for QB. I only think about 3 years out in terms of projections - not their entire career. So age is a factor, but not a huge advantage by itself. Other positions to follow.

1 Rodgers

2 Vick

3 Rivers

4 Brees

5 Peyton

6 Big Ben

7 Romo

8 Brady

9 Ryan

10 Bradford

11 Eli Manning

12 Schaub

13 Orton

14 Flacco

15 Freeman

16 Cutler

17 Sanchez

18 Stafford

19 Fitzpatrick

20 Kolb

21 Cassel

22 Palmer

23 McNabb

24 V.Young

25 C.McCoy

Looks pretty good to me, with the biggest exception being Vick. I understand why someone would have him that high, but i do not trust him long term, and there is no way i would want to count on him as my #1 past this season.

Bradford is going too be the consensus #1 fantasy QB within 3 years.

Wasn't the bolded basically said about Matt Ryan after or during his rookie year (or something similar at least)? I guess that still could happen for him, but sometimes I think we give people too much credit too early (or write them off too quickly).

I really liked, and still like Matt Ryan, and think he could be a top 5 QB in the future, but he is no Sam Bradford. Bradford is already one of the most accurate and smartest QB's in the league. The sky is the limit for this kid. I dont think there is such a thing as giving someone credit too early when it comes to dynasty FF, if you wait too long, you miss out.

I see what you're saying, and I definitely agree that with some prospects you will miss out if you aren't on the train early. However, there are definitely cases where guys were given too much credit too early, or maybe better phrased, undeserved credit. Steve Slaton comes to mind here, maybe Forte and Kevin Smith as well (I'm picking on that RB class, LOL).

Of course you are going to miss sometimes, but thats part of the game. The difference is people overvalued Slaton based on his stats during his rookie year. Or guys like Kevin Smith or Forte because they were drafted by teams where they became instant starters. Also, whats wrong with Forte? He is a top 15 FF back this year, and that doesnt look like it will change anytime soon.Anyway, with Bradford, im not basing my liking on numbers he has put up, or because he went to a good situation. It is based on what i see when i watch him play(not just in the pros). Im not a professional scout, and i could be wrong, but my eyes are the only real thing i can judge by, and my eyes tell me he is going to be great.

Disclaimer: I liked Steve Slaton long before he was drafted by the Texans because of what my eyes told me, not his draft postion or numbers he put up.

 

[mlball77]

Of course you are going to miss sometimes, but thats part of the game. The difference is people overvalued Slaton based on his stats during his rookie year. Or guys like Kevin Smith or Forte because they were drafted by teams were they became instant starters. Whats wrong with Forte? He is a top 15 FF back this year, and that doesnt look like it will change anytime soon.Anyway, with Bradford, im not basing my liking on numbers he has put up, or because he went to a good situation. It is based on what i see when i watch him play(not just in the pros). Im not a professional scout, and i could be wrong, but my eyes are the only real thing i can judge by, and my eyes tell me he is going to be great.Disclaimer: I liked Steve Slaton long before he was drafted by the Texans because of what my eyes told me, not his draft postion or numbers he put up.

Nothing's wrong with Forte unless you ponied up for him as a top 3-5 RB as many were doing after his rookie year. I actually targeted him in redraft this year as a value buy. That said, he was one that my eyes told me during his rookie year wasn't quite the special player that his stat accumulation during that season may have indicated that he was. A good, well rounded RB, but not a special player, imo. I'm a Bears fan and wish he was a special talent, but I'm okay with him just being good. But if you were ahead of the curve on Forte, you never paid anything near what a top 3-5 RB goes for (and I think that is one of the points you are driving at, and I totally agree).And I also agree that you win some and lose some as far as your calls on young players, that's part of the deal in dynasty leagues. And you don't have to win them all to be a very successful team. I still think some target a youngster with unrealistic or unwarranted expectations, after one big season. Again, the guys I mentioned earlier are good examples of this. They all got too much credit after big rookie seasons, imo and aren't the primary building blocks for dynasty teams that many had hoped (you could make a case for Forte as a solid RB2 though). I've been guilty of this to some extent.

 

[Go deep]

Of course you are going to miss sometimes, but thats part of the game. The difference is people overvalued Slaton based on his stats during his rookie year. Or guys like Kevin Smith or Forte because they were drafted by teams were they became instant starters. Whats wrong with Forte? He is a top 15 FF back this year, and that doesnt look like it will change anytime soon.

Anyway, with Bradford, im not basing my liking on numbers he has put up, or because he went to a good situation. It is based on what i see when i watch him play(not just in the pros). Im not a professional scout, and i could be wrong, but my eyes are the only real thing i can judge by, and my eyes tell me he is going to be great.

Disclaimer: I liked Steve Slaton long before he was drafted by the Texans because of what my eyes told me, not his draft postion or numbers he put up.

Nothing's wrong with Forte unless you ponied up for him as a top 3-5 RB as many were doing after his rookie year. I actually targeted him in redraft this year as a value buy. That said, he was one that my eyes told me during his rookie year wasn't quite the special player that his stat accumulation during that season may have indicated that he was. A good, well rounded RB, but not a special player, imo. I'm a Bears fan and wish he was a special talent, but I'm okay with him just being good. But if you were ahead of the curve on Forte, you never paid anything near what a top 3-5 RB goes for (and I think that is one of the points you are driving at, and I totally agree).And I also agree that you win some and lose some as far as your calls on young players, that's part of the deal in dynasty leagues. And you don't have to win them all to be a very successful team.

I still think some target a youngster with unrealistic or unwarranted expectations, after one big season. Again, the guys I mentioned earlier are good examples of this. They all got too much credit after big rookie seasons, imo and aren't the primary building blocks for dynasty teams that many had hoped (you could make a case for Forte as a solid RB2 though). I've been guilty of this to some extent.

This is the key, by this time, its too late to get them as their perceived value likely already outweighs their real value. That has not happened with Bradford, he is a guy i think will be great before he ever has the stats to suggest it. I agree with you about tempering your expectations after one great season, which is why i still have Foster outside the top 10, and dont have Vick in the top 5. I know Vick has had good seasons before, but nothing like this.

ETA, Its not Vicks lack of physical talent that makes me skeptical, unlike Foster.

 

[Jedimaster21]

I am interested in opinions on Jeremy Maclin. Personally, I think he is the #1 WR in Philadelphia with Michael Vick throwing to him for the next few seasons (the Eagles have to resign Vick). He is only 22, and was supposed to be extremely raw, and has displayed the ability to get open and find holes in zone defenses. He is big, fast, great after the catch, and has great hands. He is also smart and an extremely hard worker. With next year being his third season, and considering he is currently ranked 11th in my PPR league right now, he has to be in the discussion as a top 10 dynasty PPR receiver going forward.

Thoughts?

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

Here's the problem with Vick. Good defenses can solve him. Blitz him off the defensive right and force him to roll to his right. Have a couple of players on the right in shallow zones ready for Vick when he scrambles to his right because he won't throw rolling that way.

Add to that the fact that he's currently a 30 year old QB that takes a ton of chances scrambling, and I don't like his chances of staying healthy for even half a season.

So to the poster that had the guts to put out his top QBs: Bravo, but I think you are wrong in a few spots. Big Ben has never finished ahead of Brady outside of the ACL year.

I'd put it as:

Rodgers

Rivers

Peyton

Brees

Brady

Romo

Vick

Big Ben

Vick may offer more upside than some of the guys above him, I'd just have a hard time building a dynasty team around him. On the other hand, I'd feel very confident in my QB play for every player listed ahead of him.

 

[gheemony]

I have Vick 2nd because I believe he will start in Philly in 2011 - after that - who knows...but he has the highest ceiling of any QB on a week-in, week-out basis. Barring injury, he could outscore the #2 QB in 2011 by 50 pts. or more - a huge edge. A trade or extended lockout could move him down some, but that is not a sure thing right now.

That's my reason for having Vick high. Either SSOG or EBF likes to point out that the huge edge over the next player is like having an extra starter in your lineup. I believe Vick has the ability to carry teams to championships this year and next. That alone gets me to discount the risk of age, injury, sloth, etc. diminishing his value two or more years out.

 

[gheemony]

I have had this strange thought in my head recently and wanted to see how others reacted. I have not delved into statistics, physcial comparisons, etc. This really is a gut call based on years of playing fantasy football.

I have been and remain a fan of Jahvid Best's prospects as a fantasy football asset.

I have been and remain a skeptic of Felix Jones' prospects as a fantasy football asset.

Yet, lately I've had this gnawing feeling that Best will be much like Felix (and I admit that the book on Felix is not fully written yet). And 2 and 3 years from now, we'll have threads debating Best much like we debate Felix now.

Why? Although the coaching staff appears to have believed that Best wass suited to be lead, bell-cow back that gets 20+ carries, I have this feeling that they will finish the season thinking that Best is best suited for 10-15 touches. That he helps the Lions win more games if he is paired with the Lions' version of a healthy Marion Barber or Tashard Choice.

I worry that Best's value will take a surprisingly large dip on draft day 2011 when the Lions take a bigger back in the 3rd/4th round.

My head keeps telling me that, even if that happens, Best will prove it on the field and merit 20+ touches a game, but I need to listen to my gut, which is saying that there's a chance he's really "just" Felix Jones.

 

[YouthofToday]

With McDaniels gone I don't see how one can put Orton above any QB that is firmly locked as the starter on their team.

1. We have no idea what the new coach's offensive philosophy will be. I highly doubt it will be as pass happy as McDaniels.

2. Will Tebow take more goal line looks, special Wildcat packages, etc. away from Orton in 2011.

3. Where will Orton be in 2012? On some other team as a backup? On some other rebuilding team?

Obviously, in no particular order, Rodgers, Vick, Brees, Peyton, Brady, Romo, Rivers, Big Ben are ahead of him (8)

Add Schaub, Eli, Cutler, Freeman, Ryan, Flacco, Bradford and your up to (15)

I also would rather have: Stafford, Luck and even Mark Sanchez, putting us at (18)

 

[YouthofToday]

With McDaniels gone I don't see how one can put Orton above any QB that is firmly locked as the starter on their team.

1. We have no idea what the new coach's offensive philosophy will be. I highly doubt it will be as pass happy as McDaniels.

2. Will Tebow take more goal line looks, special Wildcat packages, etc. away from Orton in 2011.

3. Where will Orton be in 2012? On some other team as a backup? On some other rebuilding team?

Obviously, in no particular order, Rodgers, Vick, Brees, Peyton, Brady, Romo, Rivers, Big Ben are ahead of him (8)

Add Schaub, Eli, Cutler, Freeman, Ryan, Flacco, Bradford and your up to (15)

I also would rather have: Stafford, Luck and even Mark Sanchez, putting us at (18)

 

[YouthofToday]

With McDaniels gone I don't see how one can put Orton above any QB that is firmly locked as the starter on their team.

1. We have no idea what the new coach's offensive philosophy will be. I highly doubt it will be as pass happy as McDaniels.

2. Will Tebow take more goal line looks, special Wildcat packages, etc. away from Orton in 2011.

3. Where will Orton be in 2012? On some other team as a backup? On some other rebuilding team?

Obviously, in no particular order, Rodgers, Vick, Brees, Peyton, Brady, Romo, Rivers, Big Ben are ahead of him (8)

Add Schaub, Eli, Cutler, Freeman, Ryan, Flacco, Bradford and your up to (15)

I also would rather have: Stafford, Luck and even Mark Sanchez, putting us at (18)

 

[I was in the pool]

Orton has always been a hard one to slot for me. I think he has always been underrated and now he has good weapons. If anything, I view a coaching change as a good thing. McDaniels as the coach (and the one to draft Tebow in the 1st round...still trying to figure that one out) was more likely to bench a productive Orton to start Tebow EARLIER than some random head coach to be named later. I think there would be a lot of pressure on McDaniels to put Tebow in there because of 1)their team record (as if Tebow can come close to giving the Broncos a better chance to win right now) and 2) because he personally drafted this guy and has something to prove with that. The new coach will not have either of those issues. Orton is the far better choice and I believe he will be in Denver (and the starter) for the foreseeable future.

I love Freeman, but all of the above reasons are why I have Orton above him in the rankings. There is even a league where I have both guys. I consider Orton my QB1 and Freeman my QB2.

 

[shader]

A couple quick-hit thoughts:

1. Mathews, Best, Spiller, Tate, Hardesty, Thomas, Bryant---What a complete bust from the top 7 guys in rookie drafts. I guess this speaks to the point about rookies being overrated. The crazy thing about these guys is that 6 of the 7 have had serious injury issues. Actually Spiller was injured too, which means that all 7 have fought injuries, though in Spiller's case the coach just hasn't let him see the field very much. Chris Ivory and Legarette Blount are the top best RB's thus far, and who would have ever imagined that.

2. However, there isn't a single player on the above list that has looked poor, in my opinion. Best has two messed up toes, which destroys his value. Dez Bryant is a future superstar. Thomas has looked really, really good when he's gotten the opportunity. Mathews I think is the most disappointing guy, and Tate and Hardesty, who knows.

3. Bottom line, I think as the upcoming draft approaches, do some homework on the top guys. If you aren't going to get one of the top 4-5 picks, and especially if you are in the 8-12 range, it might pay to offer a draft pick for one of the above guys.

 

[DevilDog919]

Mathews I think is the most disappointing guy

4.4 YPC is not disappointing to me at all. Tolbert has averaged 4.3 YPC, so yes I do think he will eat into Mathews' carries and maybe the GL in the future...but to say Mathews himself has been disappointing is not true. He's been injured, and honestly I was watching the game when it happened and thought at the time he would be out for the year. I'm amazed he came back so quickly, it was a gruesome looking twist that his leg got caught up in.

 

[I was in the pool]

I think drafting a rookie to be an instant contributor to a winning FF team is a big mistake. They typically go higher than warranted and the adjustment to a number of things from college to NFL is huge. I like to target 2nd year guys that underachieved some because they will far in perceived value a bit from year 1 - and there's a whole new lot of rookies that will be the talk of the town when the 2nd year guys will have a full off-season to breathe and pinpoint all the stuff they need to improve and play faster because they understand everything that much better.

 

[Sabertooth]

With McDaniels gone I don't see how one can put Orton above any QB that is firmly locked as the starter on their team.1. We have no idea what the new coach's offensive philosophy will be. I highly doubt it will be as pass happy as McDaniels.2. Will Tebow take more goal line looks, special Wildcat packages, etc. away from Orton in 2011.3. Where will Orton be in 2012? On some other team as a backup? On some other rebuilding team?Obviously, in no particular order, Rodgers, Vick, Brees, Peyton, Brady, Romo, Rivers, Big Ben are ahead of him (8)Add Schaub, Eli, Cutler, Freeman, Ryan, Flacco, Bradford and your up to (15)I also would rather have: Stafford, Luck and even Mark Sanchez, putting us at (18)

It is all speculation but he could be QB of the Vikings or Cardinals too. Just sayin.

 

[Sabertooth]

I think drafting a rookie to be an instant contributor to a winning FF team is a big mistake. They typically go higher than warranted and the adjustment to a number of things from college to NFL is huge. I like to target 2nd year guys that underachieved some because they will far in perceived value a bit from year 1 - and there's a whole new lot of rookies that will be the talk of the town when the 2nd year guys will have a full off-season to breathe and pinpoint all the stuff they need to improve and play faster because they understand everything that much better.

McCoy is a good example of this strategy working. Beanie, not so much.