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I'm interested in opinions on Hardesty's future. I drafted him in my keep 7 league optimistic about the rushing situation in Cleveland and thinking there would be little competition for touches. Now Hillis has established himself and, at best, I fear that Hardesty will be mired in a RBBC.Can anyone who's followed him closely, or the Browns, shed some light on what I might expect from him in 2011 and beyond.
I think this is a sound approach. If you can find an impatient owner, you might be able to get a rookie from the past season (that underperformed) at a good price (when you definitely couldn't have six months prior).There is of course the risk that the reason said player didn't produce as a rookie is simply because he isn't as good as advertised though. But depending on the price you got him, the risk could be worth it. This is where doing your homework really pays off. If you have a good grasp on what may have contributed to the rookie's struggles, you have a better feel for his true value, imo.
Brown fans love Hillis.. Hardesty has never been able to stay healthy, if Hillis is healthy himself and producing, they will feed the ball to Hillis.Now don't get me wrong.. it's produce or your out, so if Hillis isn't producing next year, then they'll definitely give Hardesty his chances.. but don't count Hillis out.. remember, he himself is a Holmgren/Mangini guy considering they traded for him.. and now he has production on his side to go with that.
Holgrem also traded for Hillis.
If you feel that way of the situation do you have the same take in Houston? I think things change quickly in the NFL and opportunities can close fast...anyone remember Kevin Kolb?
This is the dynasty thread. People had to shell out the 1.01 or 1.02 for him. In the dynasty format, my opinion of Mathews has not changed one bit. I still think he has multiple 1000+ yard seasons in his future.
Define "solve". The Giants "solved" him. But he still put up 21 fantasy points that week. The Eagles were still in the red zone 5 times and put up 27 points. The Bears copied the blueprint. But he still put up 25 points. The Eagles were in the red zone 6 times and put up 26 points. He still had 30+ rushing yards both games. He still had 250+ passing yards both games. Good defenses can "solve" Peyton by blowing up the guards and not allowing him to move forward in the pocket. Or at least that's one cause of current issues. These solutions in both cases are temporary and not completely relevant to fantasy.Kitrick Taylor said:
Most teams likely don't have the personnel to "solve" Vick even if they have the formula - at least until age takes its toll on his legs a little.
My point exactly. Mathews has had a horrible 1st year. His prospects still look good for the future but a rookie season marred with injuries isn't exactly the way you want the franchise of your dyno team to start his career. it certainly prolongs his development in all facets of his game.
Next year is (potentially) a great WR class. Also there's some favorable WR situations like StL, Was, ATL who are unlikely to land Green. Let's say Blackmon gets picked by StL, Jones by Was, and Floyd by ATL. With those type of player/situations plus Luck, the 8th/9th pick might be pretty nice next year. I think I'd rather have all those over Demaryius.shader said:
I'm not saying Vick isn't good, I've got him 7th. All the QBs ahead of him other than Romo have multiple top 5 finishes on their resumes. They are all better bets to stay healthy for a complete season as well IMO.
I didn't end up with Mathews in any leagues but he was my #1 RB on the board long before he went #12 in the draft. Owners who were picking 1 or 2 were likely not going to be in the playoff race anyway (unless they traded for the pick they might be). While I am sure they would have liked to have seen more out of him, I don't think it killed all that many season so to speak. I will be looking to acquire him in every league this offseason.
Coming into the draft, I treated Mathews like Mendenhall. Both are good talents in great situations. I still think Mathews has at least that upside.Mendenhall's competition is less.Mathews is a better receiver. (They can't pay Sproles 7+ mil again, can they?)Mendenhall also had a completely forgettable/miserable first year and Mewelde Moore was the best back on the roster.
All of the top RBs taken in most drafts will be at bargain prices if you want to acquire them, those that weren't injured haven't lived up to the hype so far. MathewsBestSpillerTateHardestyI would probably target Best rather than Mathews at this point and he can be had a lot cheaper. Mathews was the safe pick while Best had the risky upside. But at this point, while Mathews looks more like an every down back, he does not seem to be the sure thing that many thought when taken by the Chargers. Best appears to be more suited to an RBBC, but many here were saying the same thing about McCoy. I honestly still think Best has more upside.
Wasn't he injured, missing the majority of the season?Otherwise, I agree with your post.
Tate had a nice TD catch against the Jets but as I understand it he showed poor footwork along the sidelines making the TD call closer than it could have been. Tate seems to make better plays on balls when he is in a confined area as opposed to the open field where he tends to take his eye off the ball to look up-field; I don't think he is worried about getting hit but wants to make the big play. Brady does not target him much because he has more reliable receivers around him and is not willing to take unnecessary chances on non-positive plays. This is essentially his first year and he is still learning the position. The upside is that he has Brady throwing to him; the frustrating part of the equation is we won't get many opportunities to see his potential unless he gets Brady's trust. He is worth a hold. I don't see the Pats taking a first round WR in the upcoming draft. If they were going to do so they would likely have grabbed Bryant last year. Tate is worth a hold. He has speed , deceptiveness and seems to be a hard worker.
Of course - Mendenhall broke his shoulder in the 4th game, the first time he really started to move into the starting lineup, on a hit by Ray Lewis. He was not impressive before that.In year 2, he was benched right before his breakout.Mathews has been banged up this year. High ankle sprains are rough especially for a RB. If he broke it and landed on IR, maybe we don't say anything, right? I still don't think it kills his long-term prospects.
Dammit Ryan. Part of the reason he hasn't played
ETA: There were similar stories (more speculative, maybe) earlier in the year that it was a key reason he didn't get more PT.
I think any owner is disappointed he was injured, but it's a little misleading to say he was passed on the depth chart. He wasn't passed on the depth chart until he was injured. Even when he came back mid-year, from weeks 6-9, he had reclaimed a majority of the carries (by almost 2-1 margin). He was passed again when he was again injured.I think most owners have written him off this year, but are not disappointed with the way he has played and are still optimistic about his future.
If you're a Matthews believer, I'd say this offseason would probably be the better time to go after him. It will only take one flash early in the season next year to drive up his price for several weeks (even if he has a couple of not-so-great games in his first 3 next year).
Happy Birthday Ryan, James Starks has a gift for you, alot more free time.
I think AP has plenty in the tank. It is way too early to start worrying about that. Backs as physically talented as he is don't break down before 30, typically - that is almost 5 years.
I think he probably could go another couple years if he wanted to. He has lost a step, but he was never noted for his speed to begin with. However he said he is taking it season-by-season and if there is a lockout I am sure that the 2010 year would be it for him.
I was wondering the same thing earlier so I looked up Grant's contract status which seems to determine a lot of this stuff nowadays. If I read correctly (and I always question this with contracts), Grant has a $5mil base with $1.75 mil in roster bonuses with 1.5 due in March. He's got two more years left, but I couldn't find the signing bonus to determine a cap hit if he were outright cut. I expect that at least he will need to restructure his contract, especially if Starks does well down the stretch. If Starks does well in the last four games (and playoffs should GB get there), he could get a Greene like bump in value in the off season. But if he gets hurt again, all bets are off. From a dynasty RB perspective, he is one of the more intriguing guys to watch down the stretch.
Moreno ***WAAAAAY*** low. Criminal for any league, even more so for PPR. This is the only one that I don't even understand. There are quite a few I disagree with, but at least can appreciate. Moreno behind Mathews, Felix, and Beanie is fascinating. He's got every single quality I look for in a young back that finally "got it". He'll make a serious play for my personal top 10 at my next ranking session.Oh... and what's the basis for Lynch being so high?Notable others....Hard to see Gore at 10 and Deangelo/Turner at 16/17People keep trying to write off Joe Addai, and I'll keep reaping the rewards. There's a reason this kid was the only Colts RB to do anything useful this year. He's better than people think.Thanks for the rankings.
Great response, thank you! I was hoping a Pat fan would chime in since they would obviously be closer to the situation. I like Tate a lot but haven't been able to watch much of him this year to really have an accurate opinion on him, I appreciate the insight.
Hardesty is an afterthought until further notice. That job belongs to Hillis.
I watched the entire GB game last week. Obviously it was Starks' first effort, so they jury is still out. However, I don't think there is an Arian Foster in the making here. In fact, I'm not sure Dmitri Nance wouldn't have done the same given the opportunity. As I've said in other threads, Starks looked good not great. He didn't break anybody's ankles, nor did he steam roll people ala Peyton Hillis. He fell forward well, gaining an extra yard on most carries, and followed his blocking. Then again, Ryan Grant showed much the same kind of thing along with some breakaway speed in his breakout year. Pretty confident Ryan Grant will play a pretty big role in the Packers backfield in 2011. Starks could be a part of that as well. He's got a great opportunity to audition for that role right now.Basically its way too early to talk in absolutes about Starks yet.
Urban Meyer would.I heard he's available
Didnt you just describe Arian Foster?
I looked back at all my notes and Moreno is low - I now have him at #18.My reasoning with Gore, DWill and Turner is that I see another couple top 5 seasons of production (potential) out of Gore (one of the few 3 down backs in the NFL).Williams and Turner on the other hand I think could have 2 top 10 (potential) seasons left, so that explains the difference in the rankings.Addai has been a cycle of injuries and yes, while he is on the field has been the best Indy back since Edge James. I don't see him as the primary back (75% of carries) again. With the playing time the other 3 guys have got in 2010, I see Indy using a timeshare in 2011 even if Addai is healthy to preserve him for the big moments and late in the season.Thanks for challenging the justifications on the rankings! Explaining them actually helps me solidify them moreMoreno ***WAAAAAY*** low. Criminal for any league, even more so for PPR. This is the only one that I don't even understand. There are quite a few I disagree with, but at least can appreciate. Moreno behind Mathews, Felix, and Beanie is fascinating. He's got every single quality I look for in a young back that finally "got it". He'll make a serious play for my personal top 10 at my next ranking session.Oh... and what's the basis for Lynch being so high?Notable others....Hard to see Gore at 10 and Deangelo/Turner at 16/17 People keep trying to write off Joe Addai, and I'll keep reaping the rewards. There's a reason this kid was the only Colts RB to do anything useful this year. He's better than people think.Thanks for the rankings.
Certainly Alex and Troy don't help, but I'm getting the feeling that he's Randy Moss in Oakland already. The "diva" characteristics that he's shown just seem to keep him from caring about a 49ers team that, to be fair, doesn't inspire a lot of caring.I still think he's a **potential** top 5 dynasty WR, but my percentages for that happening have lowered a bit. Still a guy I'd like to have on my team, but I have a hard time even finding a spot for him in my top 15 WRs right now, so I'm not sure how much luck I'll have targeting him this offseason.In the end I think he's an outstanding talent, but the NFL right now is full of high caliber WRs that are outstanding talents.
I'd be stunned if they did......and I wouldn't put any big fantasy stock in a rookie Pats WR either.
It's a combination of all of those factors. He's not as good as Calvin, but the gap probably isn't as huge as most people think. Calvin is averaging 7.9 yards per target this season while Crabtree is averaging 7.3. The big difference is that Calvin is scoring a lot more touchdowns and getting a lot more opportunities. Top 5 is probably a stretch, but I still see him as a top 15 dynasty WR. I would say he's closer to guys like Hines Ward and Marques Colston than Calvin Johnson and Andre Johnson. He doesn't really have the elite speed to be a home run threat, but he's great as a possession WR. I think he'll have multiple 1000 yard seasons in his career. Right now his production is being suppressed by poor QB play and conservative play calling. You're not going to catch the ball when it isn't thrown your way. Crabtree ranks 33rd among NFL WRs in targets, which goes a long way towards explaining his mediocre stats.Go deep said:
