Dynasty Rankings (2 Viewers)

[Spin]

This guy was kinda of an arrogant *** when it came to college football. Always swore he knew of all the "steals" later in rounds that no one else knew about. Was constantly losing in every trade because he could see the real value etc etc. I would ask him about trades he would go off on long rants about why he easily got the best end of the deal. He could always justify it (in his opinion) but was always wrong. He would show up to rookie drafts with no notes, no cpu, nothing, because he already knew his "steals" that no one would have on their list anyway. His last rookie draft went: Courtney Upshaw (2nd), Terrance Ganaway (3rd), BJ Cunningham (3rd), Stephon Gilmore (5th), Jordan White (7th). His last first round pick was in 2010, where he picked Golden Tate at 1.03, and laughed that we didn't pick him 1.01 that year.

I know the new owner will play for the next 4 seasons at the minimum. He's been a friend for awhile and I trust him when he said that, but I guess we shall see. He's pretty good in the redraft leagues I play with him in, we'll see how it translates to dynasty.

I don't think it matters how good he is, he has virtually nothing to work with, including draft picks. I know I wouldn't take that team over without some sort of incentive.

Right, this is where I'm getting at. We have deep rosters (40) so everyone is picked clean off the waiver. And during the offseason there are no limits, I have 56 players atm. So what would be the way to generate some incentive, aside from monetary incentives. Tacking on picks on the end of the first? We could give him 1.11, 1.12. in 2013, 1.11,1.12 in 2014 etc. Curious if anyone has had this happen and which successful strategies helped pull the team together?

 

[humpback]

This guy was kinda of an arrogant *** when it came to college football. Always swore he knew of all the "steals" later in rounds that no one else knew about. Was constantly losing in every trade because he could see the real value etc etc. I would ask him about trades he would go off on long rants about why he easily got the best end of the deal. He could always justify it (in his opinion) but was always wrong. He would show up to rookie drafts with no notes, no cpu, nothing, because he already knew his "steals" that no one would have on their list anyway. His last rookie draft went: Courtney Upshaw (2nd), Terrance Ganaway (3rd), BJ Cunningham (3rd), Stephon Gilmore (5th), Jordan White (7th). His last first round pick was in 2010, where he picked Golden Tate at 1.03, and laughed that we didn't pick him 1.01 that year.

I know the new owner will play for the next 4 seasons at the minimum. He's been a friend for awhile and I trust him when he said that, but I guess we shall see. He's pretty good in the redraft leagues I play with him in, we'll see how it translates to dynasty.

I don't think it matters how good he is, he has virtually nothing to work with, including draft picks. I know I wouldn't take that team over without some sort of incentive.

Right, this is where I'm getting at. We have deep rosters (40) so everyone is picked clean off the waiver. And during the offseason there are no limits, I have 56 players atm. So what would be the way to generate some incentive, aside from monetary incentives. Tacking on picks on the end of the first? We could give him 1.11, 1.12. in 2013, 1.11,1.12 in 2014 etc. Curious if anyone has had this happen and which successful strategies helped pull the team together?

That's a start, but if the waivers are picked clean as you say, it won't really do much good. I'm thinking more of a supplemental draft thing where the other teams have to make available some of their guys for him to pick from. I'm sure people won't be too happy, but this seems like a "for the good of the league" situation.

I don't mean top 10 players or anything, but at least guys with potential- RBs in the 30's and up, WRs in the 40's and up, etc. The goal isn't to make him a playoff team this year or anything, but there should be some hope that he can get there in 2-3 years, and I don't see anyway that happens without something like this.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Had a similar situation (altho' in a free league) and gave the dude extra picks (1.13 + 2.13) and let him pick the anyone he wanted from waivers (which are usually closed during offseason - he got Martellus, Housler, Lestar Jean, maybe others that way), but it was still a bad situation. Nothing will really fix it other than time or giving him a new team (dispersal draft).

 

[Spin]

This guy was kinda of an arrogant *** when it came to college football. Always swore he knew of all the "steals" later in rounds that no one else knew about. Was constantly losing in every trade because he could see the real value etc etc. I would ask him about trades he would go off on long rants about why he easily got the best end of the deal. He could always justify it (in his opinion) but was always wrong. He would show up to rookie drafts with no notes, no cpu, nothing, because he already knew his "steals" that no one would have on their list anyway. His last rookie draft went: Courtney Upshaw (2nd), Terrance Ganaway (3rd), BJ Cunningham (3rd), Stephon Gilmore (5th), Jordan White (7th). His last first round pick was in 2010, where he picked Golden Tate at 1.03, and laughed that we didn't pick him 1.01 that year.

I know the new owner will play for the next 4 seasons at the minimum. He's been a friend for awhile and I trust him when he said that, but I guess we shall see. He's pretty good in the redraft leagues I play with him in, we'll see how it translates to dynasty.

I don't think it matters how good he is, he has virtually nothing to work with, including draft picks. I know I wouldn't take that team over without some sort of incentive.

Right, this is where I'm getting at. We have deep rosters (40) so everyone is picked clean off the waiver. And during the offseason there are no limits, I have 56 players atm. So what would be the way to generate some incentive, aside from monetary incentives. Tacking on picks on the end of the first? We could give him 1.11, 1.12. in 2013, 1.11,1.12 in 2014 etc. Curious if anyone has had this happen and which successful strategies helped pull the team together?

That's a start, but if the waivers are picked clean as you say, it won't really do much good. I'm thinking more of a supplemental draft thing where the other teams have to make available some of their guys for him to pick from. I'm sure people won't be too happy, but this seems like a "for the good of the league" situation.

I don't mean top 10 players or anything, but at least guys with potential- RBs in the 30's and up, WRs in the 40's and up, etc. The goal isn't to make him a playoff team this year or anything, but there should be some hope that he can get there in 2-3 years, and I don't see anyway that happens without something like this.

Well, it'd be 1.11, 1.12 in the rookie draft.

This was our other option we were discussing "Me and the co-commish talked about letting each owner nominate 2-3 players and if the new owner of the bad team chose one of your players, you'd be eligible for a 1st/2nd/3rd round compensation based on how that player finished etc."

Does this seem like a viable option?

 

[Adam Harstad]

Anybody have any thoughts going forward with terelle Pryor? I realize with Flynn coming in it may be a long shot for him to get a legit shot at starting but he intrigues me quite a bit... I was very impressed with the things he has said and the way he commanded that huddle in his only start last yr... I know he is not an ideal pocket passer and may never be anything close to that but if he gets some games and runs around a bit and looks decent in the fantasy stat line maybe I can squeeze some value out of him?

Not if you are planning to trade him. He only has value in very deep leagues and that would be betting on the Flynn experiment being a failure or that somehow Pryor emerges due to a Flynn injury. I own him in two 24 roster leagues and will be cutting him in both. I am in a 30 roster league and if he is on the waiver wire would be a marginal consideration there. The bottom line it is hard to get that excited about his prospects when the Oakland coaching staff/management seems to have little confidence in his future.

He's only going to really have trade high value if OAK wins those theoretical games he runs around in. If he does what he did in his only start so far - get some garbage stats - I think people will see through that. And that the eventual starter is from the 2014 draft. Otherwise he is Joe Webb. I have Pryor in a few leagues just in case those running around games are useful for playoff runs. And I have both Pryor and Webb in a deeper superflex for similar reasons. But expecting him to look like a future longterm starter is kremenull.

I'm pretty much with this. Pryor has interesting potential as long as he's a starter (even Tebow was a quality fantasy QB when he was a starter). His chances of becoming a starter for any stretch are not zero... but they're not far off it, either. I own him in two leagues, both of which are deeeeeeep (12 team, 28 man rosters and 10 team, 30 man rosters, no PKs). I haven't cut him in either, but he's on the chopping block in both. In the 12 teamer I might keep him around just for giggles to see if he gets a game or two during byes this year. In the 10 teamer, I'm stacked at QB (Brees, Kaep, Roeth, Foles) and he's my first cut when it's time to make room for rookies. Hell, even if you like him, it's probably safe to cut him. He's unlikely to draw much interest, so if you want, you can always use waivers as a taxi squad, cut him, and keep an eye on him on the street. It's risky if you really like a guy, but if you've judged your league right, it could work- I stashed Kaep on the wire for one week last year to cover byes. He wasn't the lowest valued player on my roster, but he was the guy I was most confident would make it through waivers and be waiting for me to pick back up next week.

Quick question. We've had the following team abandoned after 4 years in the league: 10 team start 1qb/2rb/3wr/1te/1flex(any)/idp Bradford, Sam STL QBCampbell, Jason CLE QBPalmer, Carson ARI QBSmith, Alex KCC QB Benson, Cedric GBP RB (P)Bradshaw, Ahmad FA* RBDraughn, Shaun KCC RBGreene, Shonn TEN RBHelu, Roy WAS RB (Q)Turner, Michael FA* RB Avery, Donnie KCC WRBoldin, Anquan SFO WRDriver, Donald GBP WRGibson, Brandon MIA WRHenderson, Devery NOS WRKnox, Johnny FA WRMoore, Lance NOS WRMoss, Santana WAS WROgletree, Kevin TBB WRRice, Sidney SEA WRSimpson, Jerome MIN WRSmith, Steve CAR WRStokley, Brandon DEN WRTate, Golden SEA WRWayne, Reggie IND WR Clark, Dallas TBB TEFasano, Anthony KCC TEMoeaki, Tony KCC TE (P)Olsen, Greg CAR TE Akers, David DET PKJanikowski, Sebastian OAK PK Jones, Jason DET DTBabin, Jason JAC DEPeppers, Julius CHI DEWake, Cameron MIA DEWare, Demarcus DAL DE (Q) Ayers, Akeem TEN LBCushing, Brian HOU LB (Q)Hali, Tamba KCC LBHarris, David NYJ LBHarrison, James CIN LBHawk, A.J. GBP LBMaualuga, Rey CIN LBWoodley, LaMarr PIT LB Hall, Deangelo WAS CBMarshall, Richard MIA CB (Q)Peterson, Patrick ARI CBBarber, Ronde TBB SDeCoud, Thomas ATL SLandry, LaRon IND SMcCourty, Devin NEP S (P) Pretty much just terrible. Not only that, here's the draft picks this particular team has for this upcoming draft and the next: 2013: 3.105.07 6.03 7.03 7.11 2014: Year 2014 Round 3 Draft Pick from Turd FergusonYear 2014 Round 4 Draft Pick from Turd FergusonYear 2014 Round 5 Draft Pick from Turd FergusonYear 2014 Round 6 Draft Pick from Turd FergusonYear 2014 Round 7 Draft Pick from Turd Ferguson So this team literally has no assets. The new owner doesn't have to pay as we had a bylaw that you can't trade future picks without paying future dues but that won't help his team. So the question is, if you have a team this bad does your league just let it rot for a few years until the new owner makes it relevant again? Does anyone incorporate a supplemental draft? Me and the co-commish talked about letting each owner nominate 2-3 players and if the new owner of the bad team chose one of your players, you'd be eligible for a 1st/2nd/3rd round compensation based on how that player finished etc. When the other owner was paying and just making bad decisions year in and year out I took the philosophy of "it's his team, let him manage the best way he sees fit while he's donating to the winners" but now that he's gone, what is a new owner supposed to do with a team like this? Especially considering he doesn't own any of his own picks, or even anything higher than a 2nd til 2015.

That's pretty bad. How much are dues?I like your idea of nominating players and compensating their owners based on how they perform, but I'd probably just cut out the middle man and give those picks directly to the new owner and let him buy who he wants, not who other owners want to offload. Another possibility, if you can convince the other owners to go for it, would be for every team to declare a certain number of players on their roster "safe" (say, 30 per team), and let the new guy steal anyone that wasn't protected (with a maximum of either one or two per team). That has the advantage of improving his team (modestly), letting him pick his guys, and also not inconveniencing any owner more than his 31st best player, tops. If you wanted to be a little bit more Old Testament about it, you could go back in the transaction logs, and anyone who ripped off the old owner particularly egregiously has to pay a "tax" to the new guy in terms of players or picks. This has the advantage of making sure the guys who benefitted the most from the old guy have to pay the most to make the new guy whole. You could combine this with the "protected players" idea and perhaps say that every team can protect 40 players, minus two or three for every trade made with the old guy. If you wanted to be a little bit less... vindictive... you could also create a new class of asset for the new guy. Say, if league dues are $100, give him $100 worth of credits which he can apply to his 2014 dues... but also make them tradeable assets, like "cash considerations" in baseball. Other teams could sell off assets for discounts on future dues. You could also manipulate waivers, giving him permanent #1 waiver priority for the next two years, or even creating a separate waiver process that only he participates in that runs the day before regular waivers, letting him get every player he wants and the rest of the league run waivers after that. In the end, you're going to be limited by what your leaguemates will allow. Logistically speaking, extra picks at the end of the first would be the simplest solution. Assuming all 8 of them recognize the problem and agree something should be done, though, hopefully you can find a creative solution that will give the new team at least a flicker of hope without totally destroying the existing competitive framework.

 

[Warhogs]

Quick question. We've had the following team abandoned after 4 years in the league:

10 team start 1qb/2rb/3wr/1te/1flex(any)/idp

Bradford, Sam STL QB
Campbell, Jason CLE QB
Palmer, Carson ARI QB
Smith, Alex KCC QB

Benson, Cedric GBP RB (P)
Bradshaw, Ahmad FA* RB
Draughn, Shaun KCC RB
Greene, Shonn TEN RB
Helu, Roy WAS RB (Q)
Turner, Michael FA* RB

Avery, Donnie KCC WR
Boldin, Anquan SFO WR
Driver, Donald GBP WR
Gibson, Brandon MIA WR
Henderson, Devery NOS WR
Knox, Johnny FA WR
Moore, Lance NOS WR
Moss, Santana WAS WR
Ogletree, Kevin TBB WR
Rice, Sidney SEA WR
Simpson, Jerome MIN WR
Smith, Steve CAR WR
Stokley, Brandon DEN WR
Tate, Golden SEA WR
Wayne, Reggie IND WR

Clark, Dallas TBB TE
Fasano, Anthony KCC TE
Moeaki, Tony KCC TE (P)
Olsen, Greg CAR TE

Akers, David DET PK
Janikowski, Sebastian OAK PK

Jones, Jason DET DT
Babin, Jason JAC DE
Peppers, Julius CHI DE
Wake, Cameron MIA DE
Ware, Demarcus DAL DE (Q)

Ayers, Akeem TEN LB
Cushing, Brian HOU LB (Q)
Hali, Tamba KCC LB
Harris, David NYJ LB
Harrison, James CIN LB
Hawk, A.J. GBP LB
Maualuga, Rey CIN LB
Woodley, LaMarr PIT LB

Hall, Deangelo WAS CB
Marshall, Richard MIA CB (Q)
Peterson, Patrick ARI CB
Barber, Ronde TBB S
DeCoud, Thomas ATL S
Landry, LaRon IND S
McCourty, Devin NEP S (P)

Pretty much just terrible. Not only that, here's the draft picks this particular team has for this upcoming draft and the next:

2013:

3.10
5.07
6.03
7.03
7.11

2014:

Year 2014 Round 3 Draft Pick from Turd Ferguson
Year 2014 Round 4 Draft Pick from Turd Ferguson
Year 2014 Round 5 Draft Pick from Turd Ferguson
Year 2014 Round 6 Draft Pick from Turd Ferguson
Year 2014 Round 7 Draft Pick from Turd Ferguson

So this team literally has no assets. The new owner doesn't have to pay as we had a bylaw that you can't trade future picks without paying future dues but that won't help his team. So the question is, if you have a team this bad does your league just let it rot for a few years until the new owner makes it relevant again? Does anyone incorporate a supplemental draft? Me and the co-commish talked about letting each owner nominate 2-3 players and if the new owner of the bad team chose one of your players, you'd be eligible for a 1st/2nd/3rd round compensation based on how that player finished etc.

When the other owner was paying and just making bad decisions year in and year out I took the philosophy of "it's his team, let him manage the best way he sees fit while he's donating to the winners" but now that he's gone, what is a new owner supposed to do with a team like this? Especially considering he doesn't own any of his own picks, or even anything higher than a 2nd til 2015.

I think this is one of those unusual circumstances that is tough to have enough rules written for. Reading some of the other posts I think it was probably a mistake to let the new owner play for free for this year instead of half price each year because it is likely that owner will bail after this year. You are probably fine until then since the team has filled but I think you are doing the right thing by having all the other owners looking at things and looking at options to help bring this team to respectability so someone will be willing to take it over.

I like the idea of considering an expansion type draft scenario. Your league could determine what would work best. Maybe allowing all teams to protect 2 guys. This team then selects a player. All teams can then keep 1 more guy and the team that lost a player gets an added pick at the end of round 1 and can not have any more players taken. The new team then selects another player and the team losing that player gets a pick added at the end of round 2. Continue for however many rounds. The number to protect and compensation can be tweaked, this was just an example but I think in this rare case your league may have to be willing to lose a little talent to keep the league full. You may even need to consider making it two picks each round and awarding two end of round 1 picks for compensation for each player lost. Do that for 5 rounds and everyone loses a player and gets a pick for compensation.

 

[humpback]

This guy was kinda of an arrogant *** when it came to college football. Always swore he knew of all the "steals" later in rounds that no one else knew about. Was constantly losing in every trade because he could see the real value etc etc. I would ask him about trades he would go off on long rants about why he easily got the best end of the deal. He could always justify it (in his opinion) but was always wrong. He would show up to rookie drafts with no notes, no cpu, nothing, because he already knew his "steals" that no one would have on their list anyway. His last rookie draft went: Courtney Upshaw (2nd), Terrance Ganaway (3rd), BJ Cunningham (3rd), Stephon Gilmore (5th), Jordan White (7th). His last first round pick was in 2010, where he picked Golden Tate at 1.03, and laughed that we didn't pick him 1.01 that year.

I know the new owner will play for the next 4 seasons at the minimum. He's been a friend for awhile and I trust him when he said that, but I guess we shall see. He's pretty good in the redraft leagues I play with him in, we'll see how it translates to dynasty.

I don't think it matters how good he is, he has virtually nothing to work with, including draft picks. I know I wouldn't take that team over without some sort of incentive.

Right, this is where I'm getting at. We have deep rosters (40) so everyone is picked clean off the waiver. And during the offseason there are no limits, I have 56 players atm. So what would be the way to generate some incentive, aside from monetary incentives. Tacking on picks on the end of the first? We could give him 1.11, 1.12. in 2013, 1.11,1.12 in 2014 etc. Curious if anyone has had this happen and which successful strategies helped pull the team together?

That's a start, but if the waivers are picked clean as you say, it won't really do much good. I'm thinking more of a supplemental draft thing where the other teams have to make available some of their guys for him to pick from. I'm sure people won't be too happy, but this seems like a "for the good of the league" situation.

I don't mean top 10 players or anything, but at least guys with potential- RBs in the 30's and up, WRs in the 40's and up, etc. The goal isn't to make him a playoff team this year or anything, but there should be some hope that he can get there in 2-3 years, and I don't see anyway that happens without something like this.

Well, it'd be 1.11, 1.12 in the rookie draft.

This was our other option we were discussing "Me and the co-commish talked about letting each owner nominate 2-3 players and if the new owner of the bad team chose one of your players, you'd be eligible for a 1st/2nd/3rd round compensation based on how that player finished etc."

Does this seem like a viable option?

Sure, but those picks are going to come after everyone else in the league has picked a theoretically better player, making his already worst-team-in-the-league even worse.

The nomination thing is more like it, but it would have to be decent players- if you guys have 50+ players on your roster now, it would be pointless to let him take 1 or 2 of your worst ones. I'm thinking more along the lines of an expansion draft, where each team can protect a certain number of guys. That number would depend on your league settings, but I'd try to make it work out so no one would lose starters, but some of their better back-ups would be fair game. I don't mind compensating them for the loss, but I wouldn't make it too valuable either- maybe make it so he can only take 1 player from each of the other 9 teams so no one team gets pilfered too much.

 

[Kree]

I know you're splitting hairs with Calvin being 1st to 5th in dynasty WR rankings, but I find it interesting that Parsons uses Calvins 'high mark' of 17.7 as a reason to downgrade him vs the youngsters because they've all surpassed that in their first three years. This is, of course, ignoring the fact that you're comparing Manning/Ryan/Romo/Dalton with luminaries such as Hill/Stanton/Orlovsky/Kitna/Culpepper/A rookie and oft-injured Stafford.

A minor thing, just think a WR at barely 28 isn't really downgradable for the fact that he was producing elite numbers with bad talent, and then the step up when he finally fan stability/talent to work with...

I do liek the fact that's his rankings go against the grain somewhat though.

 

[Biabreakable]

Spin, In regards to your league situation. I do not think any form of letting the decimated carcass of a team feed off of the other just because it is too weak as being a solution to the real problem.

The real problem is you have an unhealthy league structure.

You should not allow teams to trade for more than one season out rookie picks.

You should decrease the roster size limit to something like 28-32 for a 10 teamer. You said yourself there is nothing of quality available on waivers. Reduce the roster size and then decimated teams have a means of turning things around by adding quality free agents, if they are willing to work at that.

After you make the changes keep them. Happy healthy league for all.

 

[BWill]

Spin, In regards to your league situation. I do not think any form of letting the decimated carcass of a team feed off of the other just because it is too weak as being a solution to the real problem. The real problem is you have an unhealthy league structure. You should not allow teams to trade for more than one season out rookie picks. You should decrease the roster size limit to something like 28-32 for a 10 teamer. You said yourself there is nothing of quality available on waivers. Reduce the roster size and then decimated teams have a means of turning things around by adding quality free agents, if they are willing to work at that. After you make the changes keep them. Happy healthy league for all.

More space definitely helps the quality of the league by being able to sit on players longer mmmmmï

 

[Adam Harstad]

Spin, In regards to your league situation. I do not think any form of letting the decimated carcass of a team feed off of the other just because it is too weak as being a solution to the real problem. The real problem is you have an unhealthy league structure. You should not allow teams to trade for more than one season out rookie picks. You should decrease the roster size limit to something like 28-32 for a 10 teamer. You said yourself there is nothing of quality available on waivers. Reduce the roster size and then decimated teams have a means of turning things around by adding quality free agents, if they are willing to work at that. After you make the changes keep them. Happy healthy league for all.

40 roster spaces seems fine for a 10-teamer with IDP. I've got a 10-teamer, no IDP, no PKs with 30 roster spots. It's deep, sure, but it's not like there's never anything on waivers. Mike Wallace, Wes Welker, Miles Austin, Austin Collie, Jermichael Finley, Dennis Pitta, Roddy White, Arian Foster, Bryce Brown, James Jones, Jordy Nelson, Victor Cruz, and Pierre Garçon all came off of waivers, just to list some of the big names off the top of my head. I parked Kaepernick on waivers for a week during byes last year. I would think adding at least 4 starting positions (PK, and at least one each of DL, LB, and DB) would make the league shallower, not deeper, which would mean even more waiver bargains would be available. Sure, you'd have to do a lot of panning to find them, but the new guy should at least have lots of empty roster spots to speculate with. At the very least, I wouldn't say there's anything "unhealthy" about a very deep league. Or about trading two years out, either- that seems a very reasonable timeframe (and I'm not just saying that because that's the timeframe I've used in all of my leagues, either). Just because it's not idiot-proof doesn't mean it's not healthy. Both of those league settings, in my mind, greatly contribute to the unique "dynasty" feel of my dynasty leagues.I'm not sure I get the "unlimited roster spots during the offseason" thing, though. I imagine you cut down before the rookie draft, I'm just not sure I get the reasoning behind it.

 

[Concept Coop]

I know you're splitting hairs with Calvin being 1st to 5th in dynasty WR rankings, but I find it interesting that Parsons uses Calvins 'high mark' of 17.7 as a reason to downgrade him vs the youngsters because they've all surpassed that in their first three years. This is, of course, ignoring the fact that you're comparing Manning/Ryan/Romo/Dalton with luminaries such as Hill/Stanton/Orlovsky/Kitna/Culpepper/A rookie and oft-injured Stafford.

A minor thing, just think a WR at barely 28 isn't really downgradable for the fact that he was producing elite numbers with bad talent, and then the step up when he finally fan stability/talent to work with...

I do liek the fact that's his rankings go against the grain somewhat though.

Can someone point me to these rankings? Not sure what this post is in response to.

 

[Kree]

I know you're splitting hairs with Calvin being 1st to 5th in dynasty WR rankings, but I find it interesting that Parsons uses Calvins 'high mark' of 17.7 as a reason to downgrade him vs the youngsters because they've all surpassed that in their first three years. This is, of course, ignoring the fact that you're comparing Manning/Ryan/Romo/Dalton with luminaries such as Hill/Stanton/Orlovsky/Kitna/Culpepper/A rookie and oft-injured Stafford.

A minor thing, just think a WR at barely 28 isn't really downgradable for the fact that he was producing elite numbers with bad talent, and then the step up when he finally fan stability/talent to work with...

I do liek the fact that's his rankings go against the grain somewhat though.

Can someone point me to these rankings? Not sure what this post is in response to.

Sorry

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/viewrankings.php?viewpos=ov&type=dynasty

But yeah, some interesting WR rankings.

Torrey at 10, Bowe at 13 (And I like Bowe), Gordon at 12, Garcon at 14, Broyles at 26, Givens at 36.

Davis Wilson at RB6 over Rice, Bush at 12, Forte at 18, McFadden at 21 (I agree with not being enamoured, never have been), Ballard at 22, James at 26.

 

[Concept Coop]

I know you're splitting hairs with Calvin being 1st to 5th in dynasty WR rankings, but I find it interesting that Parsons uses Calvins 'high mark' of 17.7 as a reason to downgrade him vs the youngsters because they've all surpassed that in their first three years. This is, of course, ignoring the fact that you're comparing Manning/Ryan/Romo/Dalton with luminaries such as Hill/Stanton/Orlovsky/Kitna/Culpepper/A rookie and oft-injured Stafford.

A minor thing, just think a WR at barely 28 isn't really downgradable for the fact that he was producing elite numbers with bad talent, and then the step up when he finally fan stability/talent to work with...

I do liek the fact that's his rankings go against the grain somewhat though.

Can someone point me to these rankings? Not sure what this post is in response to.

Sorry

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/viewrankings.php?viewpos=ov&type=dynasty

But yeah, some interesting WR rankings.

Torrey at 10, Bowe at 13 (And I like Bowe), Gordon at 12, Garcon at 14, Broyles at 26, Givens at 36.

Davis Wilson at RB6 over Rice, Bush at 12, Forte at 18, McFadden at 21 (I agree with not being enamoured, never have been), Ballard at 22, James at 26.

Thanks.

Julio at 1 and Calvin at 5 doesn't add up to me. It's "collector" or "pretty roster" thinking. Taking Julio over Calvin because Julio is 4 years younger is silly to me. Calvin outscored Julio by 5.5 points a game last year, while only scoring 5 TDs. Calvin has 5 years of top-of-the-top production left. Are we really going to take Julio becuase in 5 years - 5 years! - Julio could start to outscore him? And by that time Julio is 28 and it's time to trade him in for the fancy new 24 YO.

Calvin outscored Julio by the amount that Julio outscored Andre Roberts. Think about that. Julio doesn't offer you a weekly advantage yet. He's a top 7-10 WR on a yearly basis, for the next 1-3 years. The average owner in a 12 team league has a better redraft WR than Julio. Aren't we surrendering championships while trying to "outlast" our league, when we take a lesser option when the better one has 5+ years left?

 

[Kree]

I know you're splitting hairs with Calvin being 1st to 5th in dynasty WR rankings, but I find it interesting that Parsons uses Calvins 'high mark' of 17.7 as a reason to downgrade him vs the youngsters because they've all surpassed that in their first three years. This is, of course, ignoring the fact that you're comparing Manning/Ryan/Romo/Dalton with luminaries such as Hill/Stanton/Orlovsky/Kitna/Culpepper/A rookie and oft-injured Stafford.

A minor thing, just think a WR at barely 28 isn't really downgradable for the fact that he was producing elite numbers with bad talent, and then the step up when he finally fan stability/talent to work with...

I do liek the fact that's his rankings go against the grain somewhat though.

Can someone point me to these rankings? Not sure what this post is in response to.

Sorry

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/viewrankings.php?viewpos=ov&type=dynasty

But yeah, some interesting WR rankings.

Torrey at 10, Bowe at 13 (And I like Bowe), Gordon at 12, Garcon at 14, Broyles at 26, Givens at 36.

Davis Wilson at RB6 over Rice, Bush at 12, Forte at 18, McFadden at 21 (I agree with not being enamoured, never have been), Ballard at 22, James at 26.

Thanks.

Julio at 1 and Calvin at 5 doesn't add up to me. It's "collector" or "pretty roster" thinking. Taking Julio over Calvin because Julio is 4 years younger is silly to me. Calvin outscored Julio by 5.5 points a game last year, while only scoring 5 TDs. Calvin has 5 years of top-of-the-top production left. Are we really going to take Julio becuase in 5 years - 5 years! - Julio could start to outscore him? And by that time Julio is 28 and it's time to trade him in for the fancy new 24 YO.

Calvin outscored Julio by the amount that Julio outscored Andre Roberts. Think about that. Julio doesn't offer you a weekly advantage yet. He's a top 7-10 WR on a yearly basis, for the next 1-3 years. The average owner in a 12 team league has a better redraft WR than Julio. Aren't we surrendering championships while trying to "outlast" our league, when we take a lesser option when the better one has 5+ years left?

Definitely agree.

The funny thing is, he seemingly contradicts himself somewhat when he ranks Gonzalez at TE8... I understand you might not have the perfect pulse on the younger players at that tier, but you're telling me to downgrade Calvin because Julio is 4 years younger and MIGHT outproduce him in a couple of years, but you're keeping someone who was close to not having any production this year, and in most likelihood won't have any production next year as worth more than Davis/Gresham/Pitta/Fleener-Allen/Finley/Daniels?

 

[Concept Coop]

Same thing with Luck over Rodgers, in my opinion. Rodgers has 5-7 years left. Are you really worried about 7 years from now?

There are guys who offer an advantage in both immediate output and longevity. They should be valued very highly – Green, Dez, Martin, Richardson, Gronk, Newton, etc. I don’t think you need to sacrifice 1 to 3 years of winning to have a young roster to build around. And, again, a bit of a paradox - by the time Luck is better than Rodgers and Julio better than Calvin - you're not so young anymore. You're essentially trading current points for future points, without getting interest.

ETA: Unless your goal is to lose for the first couple to get high draft picks during that span. But that just feels dirty to me.

 

[kutta]

I'm a little surprised that Crabtree isn't higher in some of these rankings. Once Kap took over, he was on a tear (he was WR 5 over the last 8 weeks of the season in my league). Good young QB and an up and coming young WR. What's not to like?

I can see Calvin, Julio, Green, Dez, and Marshall being ranked ahead of him. But I think he's pretty close to Fitz, Harvin (though I'm not as high on him as most), and D. Thomas, and I would take Crabtree over Cruz, Nicks, Jordy, and Andre. I would rank Crabtree in the WR 8-10 range for dynasty, but I usually see him around 15.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I know you're splitting hairs with Calvin being 1st to 5th in dynasty WR rankings, but I find it interesting that Parsons uses Calvins 'high mark' of 17.7 as a reason to downgrade him vs the youngsters because they've all surpassed that in their first three years. This is, of course, ignoring the fact that you're comparing Manning/Ryan/Romo/Dalton with luminaries such as Hill/Stanton/Orlovsky/Kitna/Culpepper/A rookie and oft-injured Stafford.

A minor thing, just think a WR at barely 28 isn't really downgradable for the fact that he was producing elite numbers with bad talent, and then the step up when he finally fan stability/talent to work with...

I do liek the fact that's his rankings go against the grain somewhat though.

Can someone point me to these rankings? Not sure what this post is in response to.

Sorry

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/viewrankings.php?viewpos=ov&type=dynasty

But yeah, some interesting WR rankings.

Torrey at 10, Bowe at 13 (And I like Bowe), Gordon at 12, Garcon at 14, Broyles at 26, Givens at 36.

Davis Wilson at RB6 over Rice, Bush at 12, Forte at 18, McFadden at 21 (I agree with not being enamoured, never have been), Ballard at 22, James at 26.

Thanks.

Julio at 1 and Calvin at 5 doesn't add up to me. It's "collector" or "pretty roster" thinking. Taking Julio over Calvin because Julio is 4 years younger is silly to me. Calvin outscored Julio by 5.5 points a game last year, while only scoring 5 TDs. Calvin has 5 years of top-of-the-top production left. Are we really going to take Julio becuase in 5 years - 5 years! - Julio could start to outscore him? And by that time Julio is 28 and it's time to trade him in for the fancy new 24 YO.

Calvin outscored Julio by the amount that Julio outscored Andre Roberts. Think about that. Julio doesn't offer you a weekly advantage yet. He's a top 7-10 WR on a yearly basis, for the next 1-3 years. The average owner in a 12 team league has a better redraft WR than Julio. Aren't we surrendering championships while trying to "outlast" our league, when we take a lesser option when the better one has 5+ years left?

Well said.

 

[Adam Harstad]

I know you're splitting hairs with Calvin being 1st to 5th in dynasty WR rankings, but I find it interesting that Parsons uses Calvins 'high mark' of 17.7 as a reason to downgrade him vs the youngsters because they've all surpassed that in their first three years. This is, of course, ignoring the fact that you're comparing Manning/Ryan/Romo/Dalton with luminaries such as Hill/Stanton/Orlovsky/Kitna/Culpepper/A rookie and oft-injured Stafford.

A minor thing, just think a WR at barely 28 isn't really downgradable for the fact that he was producing elite numbers with bad talent, and then the step up when he finally fan stability/talent to work with...

I do liek the fact that's his rankings go against the grain somewhat though.

Can someone point me to these rankings? Not sure what this post is in response to.

Sorry

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/viewrankings.php?viewpos=ov&type=dynasty

But yeah, some interesting WR rankings.

Torrey at 10, Bowe at 13 (And I like Bowe), Gordon at 12, Garcon at 14, Broyles at 26, Givens at 36.

Davis Wilson at RB6 over Rice, Bush at 12, Forte at 18, McFadden at 21 (I agree with not being enamoured, never have been), Ballard at 22, James at 26.

Thanks.

Julio at 1 and Calvin at 5 doesn't add up to me. It's "collector" or "pretty roster" thinking. Taking Julio over Calvin because Julio is 4 years younger is silly to me. Calvin outscored Julio by 5.5 points a game last year, while only scoring 5 TDs. Calvin has 5 years of top-of-the-top production left. Are we really going to take Julio becuase in 5 years - 5 years! - Julio could start to outscore him? And by that time Julio is 28 and it's time to trade him in for the fancy new 24 YO.

Calvin outscored Julio by the amount that Julio outscored Andre Roberts. Think about that. Julio doesn't offer you a weekly advantage yet. He's a top 7-10 WR on a yearly basis, for the next 1-3 years. The average owner in a 12 team league has a better redraft WR than Julio. Aren't we surrendering championships while trying to "outlast" our league, when we take a lesser option when the better one has 5+ years left?

Definitely agree.

The funny thing is, he seemingly contradicts himself somewhat when he ranks Gonzalez at TE8... I understand you might not have the perfect pulse on the younger players at that tier, but you're telling me to downgrade Calvin because Julio is 4 years younger and MIGHT outproduce him in a couple of years, but you're keeping someone who was close to not having any production this year, and in most likelihood won't have any production next year as worth more than Davis/Gresham/Pitta/Fleener-Allen/Finley/Daniels?

Chad's a smart guy and can defend himself, but since he's new around here and probably hasn't discovered the "Dynasty league subforum" yet ( ), I just wanted to step in and say some good things about him. He worked last year over at PFF's dynasty site, he runs a regular dynasty podcast called "Under the Helmet", and he's always very active and engaged on Twitter, so there are plenty of archives of his work if anyone wants to check him out. Dodds brought him on board because he'd followed Parson's work and was a fan, and I agree completely- Parsons is very good at what he does, and I've been a fan for a while now. We have philosophical differences, with the premium placed on youth among the biggest, but he's an experienced dynasty leaguer, a clear communicator, a clever thinker, a good evaluator, and an always interesting writer.

Anyway, introductions aside, I'm sure you could see from my own rankings that I tend to side more with you two on this issue. I put less of a premium on youth (or, rather, I put a very high premium on youth, but in cases like this it gets completely washed out by the risk discount when you're comparing 5-6 years down the line). With that said, Chad is nothing if not philosophically consistent. Like Pasquino, he'll produce some major outlier rankings, but you know exactly why he's doing it and how it fits within his greater dynasty worldview- he's not being capricious or whimsical or looking to shock. As far as Gonzo being ranked so high... I could definitely see it, even for someone who values youth. It depends on your baseline. If the baseline is "Greg Olsen", then Gonzo will produce more value over baseline in one year than Olsen will in his entire remaining career. I'm lower on Gonzo than Parsons, but not because I disagree with the formula... I'm lower because I don't think it's fait accompli that Gonzo is a top-3 stone cold difference maker this year. Last year, he finished with 45 VBD in non-PPR, which ranked 40th overall. That was his best finish since 2008, he last year with the Chiefs. In Atlanta, he's averaged just 26.5 VBD, and while he might appear ageless, the fact is that Father Time remains undefeated. I would rank a single season of Gronk or Graham as high as TE8. A single season of Tony Gonzalez, though, I'd have much lower.

 

[thriftyrocker]

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/viewrankings.php?viewpos=ov&type=dynasty

But yeah, some interesting WR rankings.

Torrey at 10, Bowe at 13 (And I like Bowe), Gordon at 12, Garcon at 14, Broyles at 26, Givens at 36.

Davis Wilson at RB6 over Rice, Bush at 12, Forte at 18, McFadden at 21 (I agree with not being enamoured, never have been), Ballard at 22, James at 26.

I assume you mean the Forte rating is too low? I think it's fine. RB12 last year. About 20 WRs who scored more PPG. Very close to the cliff. In PPR I think Bush and Sproles are better redraft bets, and longevity isn't much different.

 

[Adam Harstad]

I'm a little surprised that Crabtree isn't higher in some of these rankings. Once Kap took over, he was on a tear (he was WR 5 over the last 8 weeks of the season in my league). Good young QB and an up and coming young WR. What's not to like?

I can see Calvin, Julio, Green, Dez, and Marshall being ranked ahead of him. But I think he's pretty close to Fitz, Harvin (though I'm not as high on him as most), and D. Thomas, and I would take Crabtree over Cruz, Nicks, Jordy, and Andre. I would rank Crabtree in the WR 8-10 range for dynasty, but I usually see him around 15.

You and me, both. I'm currently the high-water mark on the staff, and it's nice to see another supporter, because I was beginning to wonder if I was missing something everyone else saw...

In my mind, the top 7 dynasty WRs are set in stone- Calvin, Green, Julio, Dez, Demaryius, Harvin, Marshall, in one order or another. Those guys are all proven beasts with a top-5 track record and off-the-charts pedigree (Marshall's the only one who wasn't a 1st round pick, but after four 100-catch seasons, I'm willing to give him a pass ). They dominate the "eye test", they dominate defenses, and they dominate the stat boxes. All except for Calvin and Marshall are 25 or under, and Calvin is merely the most statistically accomplished WR since Rice, while Marshall is a PPR workhorse who probably had the best season of any WR in the league last year. There are some red flags (Harvin's injury, Dez's head, Marshall's age, Julio's lack of experience as the go-to), but everyone in that group is a triple threat- they have age, talent, and production on their side.

After those 7, you've got a major break in the rankings. Everyone after that is flawed somehow. You've got Fitzgerald, who is an unimpeachable talent, but his production last year was atrocious and he's on the wrong side of 30. Cobb is a very interesting up-and-comer, but he might not be the best WR on his own team and he's never finished as a fantasy WR1. Crabtree spent years disappointing and is really hanging his hat on an 8-game stretch. Cruz and Nicks have talent, but fight for targets in an offense that looks less explosive than it did a year ago (plus Cruz is a free agent and Nicks has injury problems). VJax, Roddy, Jordy, Andre, and Blackmon all earned top-10 rankings from someone on the staff, and all have plenty of warts on their own. You can easily see the break in the composite ranking averages- Demaryius comes in 7th with an average ranking of 7.6, and then Fitzgerald comes in at 8th with an average ranking of 10.1, and there are 5 guys with averages between 10 and 12. In terms of average ranking, the #8 WR is a lot closer to the #12 WR than he is to the #7 WR.

It just feels like after such a major cliff in the rankings, anyone you put next is going to feel a little bit overrated just by sheer proximity to that top tier. As I'm fond of saying, though, SOMEONE has to be ranked there, and Crabtree's got as good of a case as anyone. He's young, in a quality offense, playing with a QB with whom he obviously has a rapport. I don't think that 8 game stretch is repeatable- San Fran is bringing in a lot more receiving threats to compete for attention- but I also think it's entirely possible that I'm wrong and Crabtree will show enough this year to work his way in among that "elite 7". He's certainly got a better chance than anyone except for possibly Randall Cobb, which is why those two guys are my #8 and #9 WR. As I said, they both feel a bit overrated there, but you gotta put someone in that position, and they've got as good of a case as anyone else.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

I know Adam H. is SSOG. Who is Chad Parsons and James B?

 

[Adam Harstad]

I know Adam H. is SSOG. Who is Chad Parsons and James B?

Parsons isn't from FBGs. He was the senior writer over at PFF Dynasty last year before FBGs poached him away. I don't know if James Brimacombe was a regular poster, either, but I don't think he was. He won the FBGs FanDuel contest. Those two made staff through actual talent, rather than just being the most opinionated loudmouths on the forums. Edit: never mind, I've been informed that Parsons posted here as "I was in the pool".

 

[Concept Coop]

It just feels like after such a major cliff in the rankings, anyone you put next is going to feel a little bit overrated just by sheer proximity to that top tier. As I'm fond of saying, though, SOMEONE has to be ranked there, and Crabtree's got as good of a case as anyone. He's young, in a quality offense, playing with a QB with whom he obviously has a rapport. I don't think that 8 game stretch is repeatable- San Fran is bringing in a lot more receiving threats to compete for attention- but I also think it's entirely possible that I'm wrong and Crabtree will show enough this year to work his way in among that "elite 7". He's certainly got a better chance than anyone except for possibly Randall Cobb, which is why those two guys are my #8 and #9 WR. As I said, they both feel a bit overrated there, but you gotta put someone in that position, and they've got as good of a case as anyone else.

I agree with you, some. I was not a fan of Crabtree before he broke out with Kaepernick, and don't think it was simply Alex Smith holding him back. Metrics show he did more after the catch during his time with Kaepernick than during his career to that point. But, at this point, based on staff, I'd say he's underrated.

But tell me why Crabtree or Cobb over Cruz. I have heard the Nicks argument, but, no offense, I think that is outdated thinking. The NFL is changing and more WRs are getting fed. I think it was PFF that did the study - QB numbers are going up big time, but WR1 numbers are staying the same. Meaning, the average NFL offense is feeding more players. But, the key is, the WR1 numbers are staying the same, not going down.

Nicks is not a threat to Cruz; in fact, his numbers go up when Nicks plays, and down when Nicks misses time. They play two different positions, which is key. I could buy the argument that Roddy hurts Julio - they both do the majority of their work on the outside, and defenses can dictate who they give more attention to. But Nicks and Cruz are different, as is the NYG offense. It’s not easy to double team a slot guy without greatly opening things up for the other guys in the formation. Just look at the starting WR opposite Cruz’s numbers in games that Nicks misses. We’re talking about Hixon, Randle, and Barden putting up WR1 numbers. I think it was Rivera who admitted to doubling Cruz too much and having it cost the team. Slot play is aided by quality WR-X play, not hurt by it.

Cruz was top 5 in receptions, yardage, and TDs before Manning’s arm flamed out. This after a 80/1500/9 14 game season. Despite Manning’s arm, Cruz finished right next to Crabtree and Julio. He’s averaging 10 TDs per 16 games – out of the slot. In 2011 he was historic in the number of TDs over 50 yards. In 2012, the Giants adjusted the way they used him, and he showed he could be productive in an altered role.

He is what we hope Cobb can be, but haven’t seen yet, aside from the small age difference. Cobb needs to play in 2 WR sets to be a consistent top 15 WR. That is not a given. Cruz is one of the best slot options in the NFL, and can dominate on the outside as a flanker, getting deep often.

Compared to Crabtree – he’s more proven, which is saying something. Crabtree got 30% of his teams targets despite playing outside of the slot more than he played in it. That can’t be counted on, as it happens an average of 1-2 times a year, and Roddy accounts for more than half of that, going back 5-7 years. Larry Fitzgerald only did it once, for reference.

I don’t think we should let an 8 game stretch where Manning’s arm didn’t show up detract from what Cruz has done, and who he is as a player. What more can he do to overcome the small school, product of a system, slot tag? I sure enjoyed getting monster numbers from Welker while owners in my league were worried about what would happen if he wasn't with Brady. I plan on enjoying Cruz's too.

 

[BWill]

Crabtrees best years are definitely AHEAD of him, no behind him... do the math. He's still young. He's the mold of a top 10 WR.... And there shouldn't even be an argument against it.

 

[Concept Coop]

Crabtrees best years are definitely AHEAD of him, no behind him... do the math. He's still young. He's the mold of a top 10 WR.... And there shouldn't even be an argument against it.

He's only a year younger than Cruz, who despite playing meaningful minutes in nearly half as many games, has only 2 fewer TDs.

As I pointed out, we don't know this isn't Crabtree's best year. The list of players to get 30% of his teams targets, recently, not playing in the slot, consists of Roddy, Larry, Marshall. And Roddy's dropped 6% this year, with Julio getting an increased workload.

And what is the mold of a top 10 WR? He'll be 26 next year, going into his 5th season with 0 top 10 finishes under his belt.

Again, I like Crabtree at his ADP, and above staff rankings. But it's certainly not a given that 2012 was his new baseline.

 

[kutta]

It just feels like after such a major cliff in the rankings, anyone you put next is going to feel a little bit overrated just by sheer proximity to that top tier. As I'm fond of saying, though, SOMEONE has to be ranked there, and Crabtree's got as good of a case as anyone. He's young, in a quality offense, playing with a QB with whom he obviously has a rapport. I don't think that 8 game stretch is repeatable- San Fran is bringing in a lot more receiving threats to compete for attention- but I also think it's entirely possible that I'm wrong and Crabtree will show enough this year to work his way in among that "elite 7". He's certainly got a better chance than anyone except for possibly Randall Cobb, which is why those two guys are my #8 and #9 WR. As I said, they both feel a bit overrated there, but you gotta put someone in that position, and they've got as good of a case as anyone else.

I agree with you, some. I was not a fan of Crabtree before he broke out with Kaepernick, and don't think it was simply Alex Smith holding him back. Metrics show he did more after the catch during his time with Kaepernick than during his career to that point. But, at this point, based on staff, I'd say he's underrated.

But tell me why Crabtree or Cobb over Cruz. I have heard the Nicks argument, but, no offense, I think that is outdated thinking. The NFL is changing and more WRs are getting fed. I think it was PFF that did the study - QB numbers are going up big time, but WR1 numbers are staying the same. Meaning, the average NFL offense is feeding more players. But, the key is, the WR1 numbers are staying the same, not going down.

Nicks is not a threat to Cruz; in fact, his numbers go up when Nicks plays, and down when Nicks misses time. They play two different positions, which is key. I could buy the argument that Roddy hurts Julio - they both do the majority of their work on the outside, and defenses can dictate who they give more attention to. But Nicks and Cruz are different, as is the NYG offense. It’s not easy to double team a slot guy without greatly opening things up for the other guys in the formation. Just look at the starting WR opposite Cruz’s numbers in games that Nicks misses. We’re talking about Hixon, Randle, and Barden putting up WR1 numbers. I think it was Rivera who admitted to doubling Cruz too much and having it cost the team. Slot play is aided by quality WR-X play, not hurt by it.

Cruz was top 5 in receptions, yardage, and TDs before Manning’s arm flamed out. This after a 80/1500/9 14 game season. Despite Manning’s arm, Cruz finished right next to Crabtree and Julio. He’s averaging 10 TDs per 16 games – out of the slot. In 2011 he was historic in the number of TDs over 50 yards. In 2012, the Giants adjusted the way they used him, and he showed he could be productive in an altered role.

He is what we hope Cobb can be, but haven’t seen yet, aside from the small age difference. Cobb needs to play in 2 WR sets to be a consistent top 15 WR. That is not a given. Cruz is one of the best slot options in the NFL, and can dominate on the outside as a flanker, getting deep often.

Compared to Crabtree – he’s more proven, which is saying something. Crabtree got 30% of his teams targets despite playing outside of the slot more than he played in it. That can’t be counted on, as it happens an average of 1-2 times a year, and Roddy accounts for more than half of that, going back 5-7 years. Larry Fitzgerald only did it once, for reference.

I don’t think we should let an 8 game stretch where Manning’s arm didn’t show up detract from what Cruz has done, and who he is as a player. What more can he do to overcome the small school, product of a system, slot tag? I sure enjoyed getting monster numbers from Welker while owners in my league were worried about what would happen if he wasn't with Brady. I plan on enjoying Cruz's too.

I don't dislike Cruz. I just like Crabtree better.

FWIW, in the trade I mentioned above (I gave Rice and Greene and received Crabtree and 1.03), I was given the option of either Crabtree or Cruz from the other owner. It was not a snap decision, but I decided on Crabtree because I believe what we saw at the end of last year is only the beginning. With Gore aging, and Kap looking as good as he did, I could see the attitude of the team changing to make it more QB/WR-centric as opposed to RB-centric in the next couple years. This could be huge for Crabtree. And, the Cruz contract situation scares me a bit. If he does end up going somewhere else, I could see him being just another good guy (to steal from Isiah) on his next team.

They are very close in my rankings, but I just think Crabtree has more potential to post huge numbers over the next few years than Cruz does.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

He's still on the right side for four more months.

You've got Fitzgerald, who is an unimpeachable talent, but his production last year was atrocious and he's on the wrong side of 30.

 

[kutta]

I don’t think we should let an 8 game stretch where Manning’s arm didn’t show up detract from what Cruz has done, and who he is as a player.

Why shouldn't this count against Cruz? His QB matters, big time. How do we know Manning is going to hold up next year and the following year? Again, it's not a huge concern for me, but just another little negative against Cruz that Crabtree doesn't have.

 

[Concept Coop]

I don't dislike Cruz. I just like Crabtree better.

FWIW, in the trade I mentioned above (I gave Rice and Greene and received Crabtree and 1.03), I was given the option of either Crabtree or Cruz from the other owner. It was not a snap decision, but I decided on Crabtree because I believe what we saw at the end of last year is only the beginning. With Gore aging, and Kap looking as good as he did, I could see the attitude of the team changing to make it more QB/WR-centric as opposed to RB-centric in the next couple years. This could be huge for Crabtree. And, the Cruz contract situation scares me a bit. If he does end up going somewhere else, I could see him being just another good guy (to steal from Isiah) on his next team.

They are very close in my rankings, but I just think Crabtree has more potential to post huge numbers over the next few years than Cruz does.

I can understand the argument for Crabtree over Cruz, though I don’t personally subscribe to it. I think Crabtree still has some questions before I project his latest 10 game stretch to be his baseline.

 

[EBF]

I've got the top two tiers as:

Calvin Johnson

Julio Jones

AJ Green

Dez Bryant

Demaryius Thomas

===============

Percy Harvin

Victor Cruz

Brandon Marshall

Justin Blackmon

Larry Fitzgerald

Michael Crabtree

Hakeem Nicks

The first tier guys are pretty universally coveted. Same with Harvin and Cruz.

Beyond that you start to get players with some issues. Marshall and Fitz are getting old and difficult to trade. Nicks has injury question marks. Blackmon and Crabtree aren't quite as proven as the others.

I think my preference in this tier would vary a lot depending on my team context. I probably wouldn't give up Blackmon or Crabtree for Marshall or Fitz in a lot of leagues because I like to build young, but they might have a slightly lower expected value.

 

[Concept Coop]

I don’t think we should let an 8 game stretch where Manning’s arm didn’t show up detract from what Cruz has done, and who he is as a player.

Why shouldn't this count against Cruz? His QB matters, big time. How do we know Manning is going to hold up next year and the following year? Again, it's not a huge concern for me, but just another little negative against Cruz that Crabtree doesn't have.

It should count and does in my personal rankings. I go back and forth on Cruz's value a lot based on this lone issue. Without it, I would feel very comforatable valuing Cruz right next to guys like Thomas, Marshall, Julio and Harvin, and his production would support that, in my opinion.

Where is Manning's arm, on average, moving foward, compared to 2011 and 2012? My best guess is somewhere in between. My guess is that he, the staff, and their vast resources, are going to identify what happened last season and take steps to avoid it moving foward. He didn't make the playoffs this year, after winning the SB as a wildcard the year before, saving 6 games and 163 attempts.

Worst case scenario is that Manning's arm is never what it once was, and while Cruz's production will suffer, the team will be forced to adjust. Being a slot option, that adjustment will likely be to get Cruz the ball underneath more, and working the deep ball less.

Again, just my best guesses and I am not even confident in them. I just have to think that Eli's arm isn't gone at 32 years old.

 

[Concept Coop]

Also, I feel very good about Cruz getting a deal done at some point. He wants to stay in NY and is making money outside of football, based on playing for a NY team. Ownership loves him, as do the coaches, teammates, fans, and his franchise quarterback. And I don't think the sides are too far off. Cruz was 11M and the Giants are quoted as saying that he deserves more than what Welker/Dola got, 6M. If their willing to say that, they're likely offering 7-8, and Cruz, if asking for 11, is likely willing to take 9-10. The Giants don't have incentive to rush and are just being smart, money wise.



Lastly, I believe in his talent, so leaving NY is not the end of the world. Indy will have money and will likely be looking to replace Wayne – one lateral move that comes to mind.

 

[EBF]

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/viewrankings.php?viewpos=ov&type=dynasty

Hadn't looked at the staff rankings in a while. Some things that stood out to me:

- Only one person has Cecil Shorts higher than WR42. I'm not sure if it's just the concussions scaring people away, but that's a surprising ranking for a guy who averaged 70 yards per game last year and tore up the league in the second half of the season. I had him on one of my teams last season and he was automatic money every week. I think he's more likely to be the next Donald Driver than the next Marc Boerigter. I think he's right up there with guys like Torrey Smith, Jeremy Maclin, Pierre Garcon, Jordy Nelson, Steve Johnson, and Antonio Brown. Probably better than several of them.

- On that note, I think Maclin is overrated. He has four seasons under his belt and still hasn't cracked 1000 yards. If Andy Reid couldn't get production out of this type of WR then I doubt Chip Kelly will. Kelly might be known as an offensive genius, but bear in mind that his WRs at Oregon did nada. You want LeSean McCoy and Bryce Brown, not DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. I wouldn't say Maclin is worthless. He's a decent player. He just isn't a true #1 WR and there are some guys rated below him who offer more. For example, I would say Maclin is Josh Gordon's floor.

- Chris Givens is basically the same player as Maclin, but is rated almost 40 spots below him. I'm a bit surprised that there isn't more hype for Givens. If Gordon, Hilton, and Wright are all top 35 guys then I don't think he should be too far behind. He did very well last year for a rookie, was a reasonably high draft pick, and has some rare tools (4.3 speed). There is a video on YouTube with every Givens target from 2012. A few things stand out to me: excellent speed and quick feet in his routes. Smallish catch radius and mixed results on short crossing/possession routes. The latter points might prevent him from ever becoming a top 15 type of guy, but otherwise he's the real deal. I don't view him as being a whole lot different from someone like Torrey Smith or Jeremy Maclin, who in my view aren't and probably never will be complete #1 receivers. The Rams will draft a WR high and that could hurt Givens's stock, but he's likely to remain a starter and possibly a redraft surprise with WR2-WR3 production.

- I kind of like Santonio Holmes as a cheap short-term WR play. The news that he still isn't running is troubling and he always seems to disappoint for one reason or another, but at this point his value has slipped so far that he's worth a gamble. If you can get him for a Broyles, Sanders, or Little who have very little chance of ever reaching his level, I would jump at the opportunity.

 

[Concept Coop]

I've got the top two tiers as:

Calvin Johnson

Julio Jones

AJ Green

Dez Bryant

Demaryius Thomas

===============

Percy Harvin

Victor Cruz

Brandon Marshall

Justin Blackmon

Larry Fitzgerald

Michael Crabtree

Hakeem Nicks

I like the list, and thanks for sharing.

Why Julio over Green and Dez? The more thought I give it, the more I have been moving way from the norm that locks Julio into #3. Last year was a good year for Atlanta. They finished top 5 in passing yards, comp %, and touchdowns - 6th in attempts. Despite this, Julio was WR11 last season. I don't see his numbers being much better than that over the next couple years. Roddy doesn't seem to be slowing down, ATL will run the ball more now, and was 2012 a big year for Matt Ryan, or his baseline moving forward?

 

[kutta]

I've got the top two tiers as:

Calvin Johnson

Julio Jones

AJ Green

Dez Bryant

Demaryius Thomas

===============

Percy Harvin

Victor Cruz

Brandon Marshall

Justin Blackmon

Larry Fitzgerald

Michael Crabtree

Hakeem Nicks

I like the list, and thanks for sharing.

Why Julio over Green and Dez? The more thought I give it, the more I have been moving way from the norm that locks Julio into #3. Last year was a good year for Atlanta. They finished top 5 in passing yards, comp %, and touchdowns - 6th in attempts. Despite this, Julio was WR11 last season. I don't see his numbers being much better than that over the next couple years. Roddy doesn't seem to be slowing down, ATL will run the ball more now, and was 2012 a big year for Matt Ryan, or his baseline moving forward?

Do you think Gonzo aging/retiring will give Julio more targets? I do. But I also agree with you that I would rank Green and maybe Dez ahead of him.

 

[EBF]

I like the list, and thanks for sharing.

Why Julio over Green and Dez? The more thought I give it, the more I have been moving way from the norm that locks Julio into #3. Last year was a good year for Atlanta. They finished top 5 in passing yards, comp %, and touchdowns - 6th in attempts. Despite this, Julio was WR11 last season. I don't see his numbers being much better than that over the next couple years. Roddy doesn't seem to be slowing down, ATL will run the ball more now, and was 2012 a big year for Matt Ryan, or his baseline moving forward?

There is very little difference among Green/Dez/Julio/Thomas in my view. They're so even that if you offered me any one for the other, I might pass just because there's almost no point.

As far as Julio is concerned, White is getting old and Gonzalez can't play forever either. I think there's actually lot of upside there in terms of his targets. 18 receivers had more targets than Julio last year, but only 10 had more yards. Sooner or later he's going to become the primary piece in Atlanta's passing game instead of a complementary target, and at that point his numbers should climb a bit. He might never be the #1 overall WR, but he's a bulletproof asset and a near lock to maintain elite value for a couple years.

Green is already the main guy in Cincinnati. 164 targets last year, which was tied for 5th among all receivers. His opportunity can't get too much better, so any improvements in his production will have to come from his own performance. I think he's slightly overrated. Most people have him clearly ahead of Julio/Dez/Thomas. Personally, I don't think his talent deserves to be a tier apart from them. If I had to say who's the most talented young WR in the NFL, my answer might actually be Demaryius Thomas. 4th in receiving yards despite being 13th in targets. Uncoverable because of his size/mobility combination.

But again, it's splitting hairs between these guys. They're all phenomenal.

 

[thriftyrocker]

- On that note, I think Maclin is overrated. He has four seasons under his belt and still hasn't cracked 1000 yards. If Andy Reid couldn't get production out of this type of WR then I doubt Chip Kelly will. Kelly might be known as an offensive genius, but bear in mind that his WRs at Oregon did nada. You want LeSean McCoy and Bryce Brown, not DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. I wouldn't say Maclin is worthless. He's a decent player. He just isn't a true #1 WR and there are some guys rated below him who offer more. For example, I would say Maclin is Josh Gordon's floor.

I agree with most of what you said but. Maclin only has one year left on his rookie deal. And given how Kelly will structure the team, I doubt they pay Maclin (or if they do pay Maclin, DeSean will be cut). If Maclin hits the market, I think a lot of teams will want him. We saw the Indy rumors about a month ago. It's possible he has a dip in value this year based on the offense, but if he does, I would try to buy in every league.

Gordon's floor is Massaquoi. His ceiling is astronomical, but he still has bust risk for me at least.

 

[Concept Coop]

I've got the top two tiers as:

Calvin Johnson

Julio Jones

AJ Green

Dez Bryant

Demaryius Thomas

===============

Percy Harvin

Victor Cruz

Brandon Marshall

Justin Blackmon

Larry Fitzgerald

Michael Crabtree

Hakeem Nicks

I like the list, and thanks for sharing.

Why Julio over Green and Dez? The more thought I give it, the more I have been moving way from the norm that locks Julio into #3. Last year was a good year for Atlanta. They finished top 5 in passing yards, comp %, and touchdowns - 6th in attempts. Despite this, Julio was WR11 last season. I don't see his numbers being much better than that over the next couple years. Roddy doesn't seem to be slowing down, ATL will run the ball more now, and was 2012 a big year for Matt Ryan, or his baseline moving forward?

Do you think Gonzo aging/retiring will give Julio more targets? I do. But I also agree with you that I would rank Green and maybe Dez ahead of him.

It could. But I think I don't think it is offset by other questions that I mentioned. I really do see Julio as a WR7-10 (PPR), per year, for the time being. WR7-10s don't win fantasy games when you use the equivalent of a 1st round re-draft pick on them. How many years until he is a weekly advantage and will his prime years be enough to make up the difference?

If the trend were to hold, Brandon Marshall will provide more VBD in 3 years that Julio will in 5. And in 3 years, Marshall is only 32 – not done by any means. I think Dez will be scoring in the Marshall range – slightly less than he did over the last 8 games of the season. Dez is the same age, so if it did happen, Julio’s not likely to make up those points. I expect Green to continue to be a better option than Julio over the next 2 years. Will Julio over catch up?

Looking at my tier 1 rankings – guys I would consider in the first round – Julio is the only guy who doesn’t help me win right away. I am gambling on his potential peak seasons being top 3 and repaying my patience. While I would consider Julio in the first round, I don’t own him anywhere, a clear indication that my opinion of him – while high – is below that of the norm, who has him top 3.

I don’t want to downplay his potential, it is very bright. I would be shocked if there aren’t a few top 3 seasons in his future. But when comparing him to guys like Dez, Calvin, Green - and even across position – Martin, McCoy, Gronk, who are likely to win games for their owners this season, and are also very young, I think it is a cause for concern, when using top startup picks or trading at his current market value.

 

[Concept Coop]

- On that note, I think Maclin is overrated. He has four seasons under his belt and still hasn't cracked 1000 yards. If Andy Reid couldn't get production out of this type of WR then I doubt Chip Kelly will. Kelly might be known as an offensive genius, but bear in mind that his WRs at Oregon did nada. You want LeSean McCoy and Bryce Brown, not DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. I wouldn't say Maclin is worthless. He's a decent player. He just isn't a true #1 WR and there are some guys rated below him who offer more. For example, I would say Maclin is Josh Gordon's floor.

I agree with most of what you said but. Maclin only has one year left on his rookie deal. And given how Kelly will structure the team, I doubt they pay Maclin (or if they do pay Maclin, DeSean will be cut). If Maclin hits the market, I think a lot of teams will want him. We saw the Indy rumors about a month ago. It's possible he has a dip in value this year based on the offense, but if he does, I would try to buy in every league.

Gordon's floor is Massaquoi. His ceiling is astronomical, but he still has bust risk for me at least.

I agree and will be keeping an eye open for Maclin where I can. His catch totals with Foles were great; he's just not the type of WR to benefit from Vick. He's hurt by him, actually. He needs a guy who can regularly hit him in stride at the first two levels. Once that happens, I think his value rebounds very nicely.

 

[Adam Harstad]

It just feels like after such a major cliff in the rankings, anyone you put next is going to feel a little bit overrated just by sheer proximity to that top tier. As I'm fond of saying, though, SOMEONE has to be ranked there, and Crabtree's got as good of a case as anyone. He's young, in a quality offense, playing with a QB with whom he obviously has a rapport. I don't think that 8 game stretch is repeatable- San Fran is bringing in a lot more receiving threats to compete for attention- but I also think it's entirely possible that I'm wrong and Crabtree will show enough this year to work his way in among that "elite 7". He's certainly got a better chance than anyone except for possibly Randall Cobb, which is why those two guys are my #8 and #9 WR. As I said, they both feel a bit overrated there, but you gotta put someone in that position, and they've got as good of a case as anyone else.

I agree with you, some. I was not a fan of Crabtree before he broke out with Kaepernick, and don't think it was simply Alex Smith holding him back. Metrics show he did more after the catch during his time with Kaepernick than during his career to that point. But, at this point, based on staff, I'd say he's underrated.

But tell me why Crabtree or Cobb over Cruz. I have heard the Nicks argument, but, no offense, I think that is outdated thinking. The NFL is changing and more WRs are getting fed. I think it was PFF that did the study - QB numbers are going up big time, but WR1 numbers are staying the same. Meaning, the average NFL offense is feeding more players. But, the key is, the WR1 numbers are staying the same, not going down.

Nicks is not a threat to Cruz; in fact, his numbers go up when Nicks plays, and down when Nicks misses time. They play two different positions, which is key. I could buy the argument that Roddy hurts Julio - they both do the majority of their work on the outside, and defenses can dictate who they give more attention to. But Nicks and Cruz are different, as is the NYG offense. It’s not easy to double team a slot guy without greatly opening things up for the other guys in the formation. Just look at the starting WR opposite Cruz’s numbers in games that Nicks misses. We’re talking about Hixon, Randle, and Barden putting up WR1 numbers. I think it was Rivera who admitted to doubling Cruz too much and having it cost the team. Slot play is aided by quality WR-X play, not hurt by it.

Cruz was top 5 in receptions, yardage, and TDs before Manning’s arm flamed out. This after a 80/1500/9 14 game season. Despite Manning’s arm, Cruz finished right next to Crabtree and Julio. He’s averaging 10 TDs per 16 games – out of the slot. In 2011 he was historic in the number of TDs over 50 yards. In 2012, the Giants adjusted the way they used him, and he showed he could be productive in an altered role.

He is what we hope Cobb can be, but haven’t seen yet, aside from the small age difference. Cobb needs to play in 2 WR sets to be a consistent top 15 WR. That is not a given. Cruz is one of the best slot options in the NFL, and can dominate on the outside as a flanker, getting deep often.

Compared to Crabtree – he’s more proven, which is saying something. Crabtree got 30% of his teams targets despite playing outside of the slot more than he played in it. That can’t be counted on, as it happens an average of 1-2 times a year, and Roddy accounts for more than half of that, going back 5-7 years. Larry Fitzgerald only did it once, for reference.

I don’t think we should let an 8 game stretch where Manning’s arm didn’t show up detract from what Cruz has done, and who he is as a player. What more can he do to overcome the small school, product of a system, slot tag? I sure enjoyed getting monster numbers from Welker while owners in my league were worried about what would happen if he wasn't with Brady. I plan on enjoying Cruz's too.

I'm not as high on Eli Manning (meaning I'm not convinced last year was a fluke), and Cruz's free agent status means there's no guarantee he's in New York beyond this season, anyway. I think the fact that in the same offseason Harvin went for a 1st+ nobody was willing to offer even a 2nd for Cruz is a negative. And I've got him ranked 10th, so it's not like I think he's way worse (or even clearly worse) than Crabtree or Cobb.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/viewrankings.php?viewpos=ov&type=dynasty

Hadn't looked at the staff rankings in a while. Some things that stood out to me:

- Only one person has Cecil Shorts higher than WR42. I'm not sure if it's just the concussions scaring people away, but that's a surprising ranking for a guy who averaged 70 yards per game last year and tore up the league in the second half of the season. I had him on one of my teams last season and he was automatic money every week. I think he's more likely to be the next Donald Driver than the next Marc Boerigter. I think he's right up there with guys like Torrey Smith, Jeremy Maclin, Pierre Garcon, Jordy Nelson, Steve Johnson, and Antonio Brown. Probably better than several of them.

That'd be me.

The concussions scare me, no doubt. The per-game stats, though, were absurd enough that I'm willing to roll the dice, especially since I tend to carry a much lower injury discount than most owners (although I usually discount more for concussions). If I hear negative news, Shorts could easily fall like a stone, but in the meantime... he's exactly the kind of guy I'd like to take a chance on. He's sort of like a bizarro Kenny Britt- huge talent, head problems.

 

[Concept Coop]

I'm not as high on Eli Manning (meaning I'm not convinced last year was a fluke), and Cruz's free agent status means there's no guarantee he's in New York beyond this season, anyway. I think the fact that in the same offseason Harvin went for a 1st+ nobody was willing to offer even a 2nd for Cruz is a negative. And I've got him ranked 10th, so it's not like I think he's way worse (or even clearly worse) than Crabtree or Cobb.

I can understand the ranking if you think 2012 was the norm, or is likely to be, for Eli's arm. As you said, you rank him very cloe to the other two.

However, I don't think Harvin/Cruz was a similar situation. NFL teams don't like to cross the RFA line. Harvin was under contract and the Vikings decided to move him - very different. Cruz was never on the trading block. Nobody touched Mike Wallace last year for a first rounder, yet he got 14m after a down year, for example.

ETA: Agree with you and EBF on Shorts. He's a real talent - clear to see that on the screen. The health risk is there, but that shouldn't knock him into the 40+ range. Those weren't Best/Collie level.

 

[Kree]

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/viewrankings.php?viewpos=ov&type=dynasty

But yeah, some interesting WR rankings.

Torrey at 10, Bowe at 13 (And I like Bowe), Gordon at 12, Garcon at 14, Broyles at 26, Givens at 36.

Davis Wilson at RB6 over Rice, Bush at 12, Forte at 18, McFadden at 21 (I agree with not being enamoured, never have been), Ballard at 22, James at 26.

I assume you mean the Forte rating is too low? I think it's fine. RB12 last year. About 20 WRs who scored more PPG. Very close to the cliff. In PPR I think Bush and Sproles are better redraft bets, and longevity isn't much different.

I highlighted Forte purely comparatively to other staff rankings, who only have him as low as 12.

 

[Kree]

Anyone gather anything of interest in the first round today?

Feeling a lot more confident about taking Patterson now for some reason than I was a few days ago if it comes to that. Geno looking Clausen-esque if teams weren't even willing to move up for that extra year contract. Austin firmed as my 1.01 in all likelihood.

 

[kutta]

Anyone gather anything of interest in the first round today?

Feeling a lot more confident about taking Patterson now for some reason than I was a few days ago if it comes to that. Geno looking Clausen-esque if teams weren't even willing to move up for that extra year contract. Austin firmed as my 1.01 in all likelihood.

I agree. I'm drafting 1.03 and will be happy with any of Patterson, Austin, or Lacy.

 

[werdnoynek]

Anyone gather anything of interest in the first round today?

Feeling a lot more confident about taking Patterson now for some reason than I was a few days ago if it comes to that. Geno looking Clausen-esque if teams weren't even willing to move up for that extra year contract. Austin firmed as my 1.01 in all likelihood.

I own the 1.01 in a league with devy players. Lacy, Allen, Hunter, Woods already taken... so it's between Austin and Patterson for me.

Between Austin and Patterson, I'm taking Patterson and not thinking twice. His ceiling is much higher than Austins IMO. Situation didn't have much of an impact for me.

ETA: Hopkins I'm not as high on, I didn't think to include him but I see both Austin and Patterson higher than him regardless.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Awesome year to have 1.1 in a return yardage league

 

[Donsmith753]

Not sure if this is the best place for this but can't find the Startup Draft thread.

Our Salary Cap Startup Auction started last night immediately following the draft, feel free to take a look. No auctions been decided yet.

http://www17.myfantasyleague.com/2013/home/78804#0

 

[Adam Harstad]

Sounds like I'm in the minority, but I really liked Hopkins before the draft, and he landed in probably the perfect situation for him. If I were drafting 5 minutes from now, he'd be my pick at #1.

 

[CR69]

Sounds like I'm in the minority, but I really liked Hopkins before the draft, and he landed in probably the perfect situation for him. If I were drafting 5 minutes from now, he'd be my pick at #1.

I had a tough time picking between him and Austin, but I think Houston is a great place for Hopkins. Baltimore would have been a good spot too, but he should be in consideration for the first overall pick.

Before the combine Hopkins was my top WR. Not sure how he timed so slow because he plays quick. The guy has amazing hands and runs great routes, sometimes you just have to trust what you see on tape.