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I think people are enamored with young stud RBs - for good reason. But I think people sometimes covet young RBs to the point of their own detriment. The shelf life of a RB is often short, so I don't like giving too much away for one. I think that owner was crazy to pass up Boldin and Turner for Rice.
Agreed. And I just wrote a paragraph on how down I am on Turner.
I'd say Tier 2 . . . I cant think of too many guys I'd take instead of him . . .I wish I had him . . .
I made my thoughts on Schaub clear in post#4509. I definitely think he needs to be in that tightly clustered second tier (along with Rivers, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, and Ryan). There's no way I'd put him in my top 5, though- he's just not as talented as some of the other guys in that tier. Better fantasy QB than NFL QB. I owned him until a week ago when I traded him for VJax. I felt it was time to sell because I thought Roethlisberger was better going forward, while Schaub was finally getting the recognition he deserved (and I could finally get fair value for him).
I think he's quite possibly the best sell-high in football right now.
I'm just not buying the long-term value here. I love Schaub in re-draft leagues, but he gives me the heebie-jeebies in Dynasty. I laid out my reasons last week, but I'm also OK with calling it a gut feeling.
Where do you have Jay Cutler? Top of tier 3?
cutler is no. 9, bottom of tier 2, just ahead of romo.as long as he doesn't have to play any more prime time games, he'll be OK.
Yup. Manning/Brees = tier 1. Brady/Rodgers/Roethlisberger/Rivers/Ryan/Schaub = tier 2. Cutler/Flacco/Romo = tier 3. The orders within the tiers are pretty nebulous and change with the weather, but the tier breaks are hard and fast. This really is something of a golden age for Dynasty QBs, because I would be perfectly comfortable trotting out any of the top 11 QBs every single week for the next 3 years. Even if you don't have one of those 11, there are maybe another 6 guys who are perfectly acceptable stop-gap starters or matchup guys (McNabb/Hass/Eli/Carson/Warner/Favre), and Orton/Garrard are perfectly acceptable bye-week fill-ins, and there are even several quality prospects out there in Henne/Sanchez (and some would probably add Leinart/Stafford/Freeman, too). There are just so many quality young QBs in the league right now. I don't for the life of me understand how someone could seriously believe that the '80s were the golden age of quarterbacking. I know fantasy is not reality, but when a 29-year old like Tony Romo can be putting up 260+ yards per game for his THIRD STRAIGHT SEASON and still not be a top 10 dynasty QB, the position is pretty unbelievably deep.
WR time.#1- Alright, so it's not really THAT far out on a limb, and it definitely doesn't fly in the face of current production... but this is another thing I said before the season started that I feel even better about now. Andre Johnson is a better dynasty WR than Calvin Johnson. If you were to go into a lab and design a perfect WR, it would be Calvin... but I have yet to see that "I will not be denied" sheer force of will from Calvin yet. Randy Moss flashed it early in his career, in his rookie year against Dallas. Terrell Owens had his 20 reception day in Jerry Rice's final home game for the Niners. Larry Fitzgerald showed it all postseason long last year. It's not necessarily a knock on Calvin Johnson, who I think is an absolute stud. I mean, I never got that "I will not be denied" vibe from Marvin Harrison, and he was a fantasy god (although he also had Peyton Manning throwing to him). At the end of the day, though, it's just a tool that Andre and Fitz have that Calvin doesn't. I often joke that defenses never stop Tim Tebow- he decides before every play how many yards he wants, then he runs until he has that many. I see the exact same thing from Andre and Fitzgerald sometimes- they just decide what the result of a play is going to be before the play even happens. As a fantasy owner, I absolutely love that, because you never know when one of those guys is just going to decide that it's time for them to take over the game.#2- Greg Jennings is not a top 10 dynasty WR. Just because he's young and he finished the last two seasons 12th and 4th, I think he sort of gets put there by default. I don't think he's shown the ability to consistently defeat strong coverages. On pure talent alone, there are at least a dozen receivers I'd take before him.#3- Ocho Cinco and Smith South *ARE* top 10 dynasty WRs. Ocho and Smiff are the co-chairmen of the "what have you done for me lately" committee. They get downgraded for being "old" (although Wayne and Moss are also over 30), and people with short term memories forget that these guys are easily among the most talented receivers in the league. In the last 6 seasons, Ocho has finished 3rd, 9th, 4th, 4th, 6th, and 50th... and all people remember is that 50th place finish, despite the fact that Ochocinco is currently 13th in PPG and on pace for yet another 1200 yards, 8 TD seasons. The guy is a machine. And as for Steve Smith... he remains to this day the only player in all my years of watching football who I have ever seen a defense decide to systematically TRIPLE COVER (in the playoffs vs. Seattle, after burning one of the best defenses in the league for 200+ yards the week before the Seahawks played the entire game with high-low coverage on Smiff *AND* safety help over top). Sure, it says a lot about the Carolina Panthers' other weapons, but when a defense respects you enough to devote three players to shutting you down, you are a bad, bad man. Carolina's a mess right now. It'll pass. Buy low.#4- Steve Smith North is not a top 20 dynasty WR. He's barely a top 30 dynasty WR. The Giants passing game right now is a mirage. Eli Manning is who we thought he was, and it'll show going forward. Meanwhile, Smith doesn't have the talent to hold off Nicks *AND* Manningham. Over the next few years, I see the Giants pie being smaller than it has been so far, and Smith getting a smaller piece than he's gotten so far. He's currently the #5 WR in standard FBGs scoring, and he's 24 years old, which means someone in your league is absolutely salivating at the prospect of adding him. Sell high.#5- I love WRs who also return punts. I think punt return skills translate so well into the receiving game. To that end... Eddie Royal, Devin Hester, and Steve Breaston are all underrated right now. All three are legit NFL starters. All three have multiple thousand yard seasons in their futures. They aren't going to rack up any top 10 finishes... but they'll have a bunch of top 20 finishes between them.SSOG said:
Josh Cribbs is another. I've got him rostered in several Zealots leagues and, while no one would say "wow" when I plug him in as a starter, he's a very servicable WR #3/4 when I need a bye week/injury filler. Zealots awards points for return yardage (.25 per 10, IIRC) in addition to rushing/receiving yards. Cribbs is averaging about 9 ppg overall, which is better than a nail in your foot. Many times you can get these kind of guys as throw-ins to balance trades out and they'll give you "hidden" points.
I think he could if he shows some/more consistency of top-flight performances.
He's worth a mid-to-late 1st round pick to any owner. Next year's rookie class doesn't have many great RBs and doesn't have any world beaters. Dwyer/Spiller/Best are about it. All are worth more than Choice. A couple WR could be worth more than Choice.Even if I had Barber and no depth, I wouldn't give you a 1st if I was 2-4 or worse. It's not like I need to start him over Barber this week. It's not like your price is going to go up if Barber looks limited again.
i am the barber owner and have been offered choice for my 1st in 2010. my pick should be 6th to the 10th pick, 10 team. i do have good depth, LT, Barber, gore, Sjax, caddy
I understand that you feel he's a better fantasy than NFL QB (and I kid of agree) - but I don't know why that knocks him down in your rankings necessarily. I guess the theory is that he's replaceable (from a telent perspective) - but do you really think he isn't in the Texans long term plans? The paid quite a price to secure his services in draft picks and since he has been successful, I can't imagine them spending another high pick on a QB - or paying a ton of $ to sign a FA QB. Is the thinking that some later round pick will eventually steal his job? I think only good things can come long term for him since you have to figure the Texans eventually look to beef up their o-line - they already have a great collection of young skill players.
Let's take Marc Bulger as an example. He was always in the Rams' long-term plans. He never had to worry about a QB stealing his job. He was always a better fantasy QB than NFL QB. And he lost all of his Dynasty league value over a period of two years. Schaub reminds me of Bulger more than any QB in the NFL. Schaub is much better in the red zone this year, but he has historically struggled there ... which was always one of Bulger's bugaboos. Schaub is arguably also missing the "it" factor at quarterback, which is my opinion as well as that of other NFL analysts. Finally, we can argue about the injury-prone label endlessly. Some people don't believe there is such a thing, and other people will disagree on which players are actually prone to injuries. Schaub appears to me to be as brittle as Bulger -- who has played all 16 games just one time in his career.
Absolutely. Flacco is a stud. He's physically very gifted, and he certainly seems to have the intangibles at QB. Throw in a fantasy godsend like OC Cam Cameron, and it's a fantastic situation.
I had a softball game last night, so I didn't see Moreno. That said, I'm not inclined to move him much -- if at all.I personally wouldn't go out and buy Jacobs because I don't like injury-prone RBs who don't catch passes. But if he's your type of back, then I'd say he's still a good buy-low. My one hesitation would be that Bradshaw has a history of effectively eating into his carries more than Ward did (see Super Bowl run).
Rookie WRs often struggle, so that fact alone makes Harvin's numbers so far very impressive. I'd be ecstatic if I were a Harvin dynasty owner.
I don't view Josh Cribbs as a receiver. Last year he was a runningback, this year he's a receiver, sometimes he plays wildcat... I really just view him as a returner who happens to be getting some odd offensive snaps because Cleveland simply doesn't have any weapons on offense. He's more Dante Hall (a returner who happens to play receiver) than Steve Breaston (a receiver who happens to return kicks). If your league rewards return yardage, then he might remain a quality play, but my high opinion of Royal/Breaston/Hester is based SOLELY on their receiving prowess. In leagues that reward return yardage, I like them better still. In my league that counts punt returns the same as receptions, Hester and Breaston are already both top 10 in PPG.
While Choice is a big reason I'm down on Felix, Felix is also a big reason I'm down on Choice. I'd probably trade the #10 overall for Choice, but much higher than that and I'd prefer the pick. If you don't have a need at RB, I'd let the opportunity pass.
He's been the most consistent QB in the league this year, outside of Roofles and Manning. He got completely shut down vs. the Jets, but since then he's gone for 300+ yards and 2+ scores in every game but one- against Oakland he had 225/1, but that was still a top-flight performance given that the Texans were up so big he only attempted 5 passes in the entire second half. He's gotten 20+ fantasy points in 11 of his last 15 games, with the only exceptions being the aforementioned Oakland game (didn't play much the second half), the Jets game (just a terrible performance), the Oakland game last year (terrible performance), the Minnesota game (cheap shot, injured, missed half the game). 9 of his last 15 games have been for 25+ points, 7 of his last 15 games have been for 300+ yards *AND* multiple scores (with two more 250+ games with multiple scores, and 1 more game with 379 yards and 1 score, just for good measure). Over the past 365 days, Schaub has been as consistently top-flight as anyone I've got in my tier 2 (and more consistent than most).
1. I think you just hit on the key to VJax. It's extremely rare for a WR to be both a deep threat *AND* a red zone weapon (thinking about it, over the past 5 years it's pretty much just Randy Moss). That's a very, very valuable skillset. VJax hasn't gotten as many receptions in the past because San Diego has been a running team. This year, they're making the transition (along with Pittsburgh) to a passing team, and VJax's receptions have gone up to match. So far this year, he's averaging 4.8 receptions per game. If you want to talk about consistency... VJax's target totals have been 7, 7, 8, 7, 7, and his reception totals have been 5, 6, 5, 4, 4. It's not l ike Roddy or Marques are making so many more grabs, to be honest- Marques has one more reception over the same number of games, and Roddy has 3 more, but he's fresh off of a career game (which skews his per-game totals higher than they'll be at the end of the season). I actually have Roddy over VJax in my rankings, but my concern with Colston is high TD% right now. He's on pace for 16 TDs over 100 catches, which is too high for a guy who has historically not shown himself to be any great threat in the red zone. Granted, that's really just 1 extra TD over the last 5 games... but with samples this small, 1 TD makes a big difference (it's the difference between 10th and 14th so far this year). Like you said, though... really, it's all just splitting hairs. It doesn't really matter if they're ranked Roddy/VJax/Colston or VJax/Roddy/Colston or whatever. The deep threat who I think is too high isn't VJax, it's Jennings, who essentially has the same reception/ypc threat level as VJax, but doesn't have the red zone skills. Plus, you have to be wary in the short term of a deep threat on the team with one of the worst pass protections in the league.2. F&L loves DeSean's talent, and I'm pretty high on it, too. Sure, the problem with deep threats is that if they don't get the big gain they have a quiet game... but so what? The beauty of deep threats is that they only need one play to have a big game. "Deep threat" is not inherently more or less valuable than "possession receiver". A deep threat that averages 1200 yards a season is just as valuable as a possession receiver who averages 1200 yards a season (unless you're in a PPR league, which punishes deep threats for being so good they only need 1 catch to get those 50 yards, instead of 4). Take any considerations of playstyle out of the equation and focus strictly on production. How much are those three receivers producing? How much will they produce going forward? Boldin just suffered a high ankle sprain, which has me worrying if he might be injury prone after all. Dwayne Bowe has averaged about 62 yards per game in every season so far, which is just a 1,000 yard season every year. Both guys had comparable numbers as rookies, but DeSean's numbers have taken a step forward and Bowe's have not. I don't think it's that crazy to prefer DeSean at this point.3. Percy's turned it on already. He's not having a rookie season for the ages, but he's performed very well for a rookie, and most importantly, he's looked on the field like I thought he would. The main question about any WR coming into the NFL is whether their stuff will translate to a higher level. Percy's stuff looks like it translates.
Well said. I may have overshot his value in redraft leagues with the way the Vikes have been using him.
1. I haven't updated the WR rankings since Roddy's 8/210/2 blowup against San Fran, so I'm sure that's a factor. I'd still rather have V-Jax than Colston. I like that V-Jax just keeps getting better, and I think his potential is upwards of 15 TDs in a season. Colston's injury history doesn't leave me with a warm and fuzzy feeling.2. I'd probably drop DeSean below Bowe right now. Jackson has a huge edge in QB and offense. I don't really want anything to do with Chiefs players for the next couple of years. Boldin is injured -- again ... which shouldn't be a surprise. He's injured every year.
Jennings has been a great red zone threat since he came into the league. You don't have to be 6'4" to be an effective WR in the red zone.
40 red zone targets, 150 yards, 10 TDs. That's 3.75 yards and .25 TDs per target. To give some perspective... since 2002, Javon Walker, Antonio Chatman, Robert Ferguson, James Jones, Ruvell Martin, Terry Glenn, Koren Robinson, and Jordy Nelson have combined for 117 targets, 593 yards, and 32 TDs (5.07 yards and .27 TDs per target). A lot of Jennings' red zone success is simply a result of Favre being such a great red zone QB. Since the beginning of '08 (i.e. with Rodgers under center), Jennings is averaging 3.17 yards and .22 TDs per target. In the same timeframe, VJax has averaged 5.33 yards and .39 TDs per target. That's 68% more yards and 77% more TDs per target- really a dramatic difference.
Hmm.. Thanks for posting those numbers. I was not aware that he had become significantly less effective, so to speak, with Rodgers at the helm.
Fantastic post. This is why I wade through much of the slop an in-fighting in the shark pool- to read a post like this.
It's not that he's significantly less effective, it's that he was never significantly more effective than every other Green Bay WR over the years (well, except for Driver, who's been almost exclusively the between-the-20s WR in Green Bay). Even with Favre, Jennings' RZ numbers can't compare to VJax's. Jennings is an acceptable option in the red zone. Jackson is a phenomenal option.
Agreed. The reason I brought him up is that he's listed as a WR, no matter how much he actually plays there, and so can be put in a FF lineup as one. I wasn't necessarily trying to compare his WR skills to those you mentioned; it was more that there's points out there to be had on the cheap - 9 PPG in a non-PPR isn't bad if you're in a pinch.
I guess I feel the same way. I was fortunate enough to have Chris Johnson, MJD, and ADP in a keep 3 heading in to the season. Even though we start only 2 RBs, I threw back in Rivers thinking there was so much value mid-rounds even in a keeper. Cutler, Schaub, McNabb, Rivers, Flacco, Roeth were all avaiable after the keepers had been declared. Moving forward next season I can see the same situation transpiring.
As a Cutler owner, I'll admit to being skeptical when your rankings had Flacco ahead of Cutler. After watching him play and seeing how much he's matured since last year I'm believing it now. I'm actually tempted to trade Cutler for him in my dynasty league because I think he's in a beter-coached, more balanced offense with a stronger defense. The guy just seems fluid and has a rocket-launcher for an arm.Fear & Loathing said:
I think his improved play this year is buying him more chances. Unlike the other PR/KR mentioned, physically he's all you want in a WR. And he is learning to use that this year in the RZ, not just in the return game. He's just still raw. He's a borderline top 200 player, definitely worth stashing. Tier 7 is right for him, but I think he is one of the better guys in that tier given it's polluted with guys who could be busts like Devin Thomas, Sweed, DHB or could be fading fast like Gage, Coles, Crayton.DoubleG said:
I know Ingram from Bama is a sophmore. Is he a true soph or 3rd year (& able to come out this year)? As for the RB class as a whole, I don't see much in the way of prime cut there right now either. But we've said that before at this time of year & things seem to change substantially by Combine/Draft season.Anyhow I agree that - at this point - selling 1st rounders for rebuilders is probably the right play.
Delhomme is still starting, even given his awful play, and the Panthers placed phone calls inquiring about Quinn. Take that fwiw, I think Moore deserves a shot before they move on but unless the Panthers fall out of contention by the beginning of December I'm not sure he'll get a real chance. I'm holding onto him in an idp dyno, but his roster spot seems to be on the hot seat every week. I got waiver prioritied on Stroughter and Maiva so he remains, but I'm sure something else will surface on waivers again next week to cause me to put a claim in to drop him.
