Dynasty Rankings (3 Viewers)

[FUBAR]

...I'm just not buying the "I don't want to take the risk on an unproven player until he "shows me something" first, and by shows me something I mean gets 700 receiving yards."

If you're going to rank Dez near the top 10 a year from now after he "shows you" 800 receiving yards and flashes of talent (like many people are doing with Hakeem Nicks), then you might as well rank him near the top 10 right now.

Well, my rankings aren't for PPR, otherwise Austin/Bryant probably would get bumped down a touch. And, like I said, Romo doesn't need a record number of TDs because Witten isn't going to be vulturing them at the level that Stokley was in 2004. I could easily see Romo putting up a 4500/40 season. He put up 4500 yards last year, and he put up 36 TDs three years ago (the last time he had elite targets in Owens and Glenn). He's averaged more ppg over the last three seasons than Peyton Manning. He's fourth all time in Yards per Attempt, and that stat isn't inflated or misleading. He's only been a starter for 3 and a half years. I think people are really sleeping on Romo.

We're just going to have to agree to disagree here. For the same reasons I don't mind putting Randy Moss in my top 10 right now but likely won't in a year or two. And it's not the 700/800 yards that I see that tell me Nicks and Crabtree will be good, it's what I saw with my eyes. I think some of our disagreement when it comes to Nicks and Dez is simply that all of my leagues are PPR while you're going non-PPR. These two are prime examples of how players values change with the system. I agree with you on Romo. Not to the point where I think he's going to be Peyton, but probably top 3-5.

FWIW, I think it's every bit as probable that Austin takes a back seat in a couple years and Dez is a top 3 WR. So like I stated before, it's not the current ranking I disagree with.

 

[theglorydays]

I have a dynasty startup draft tonight and we are able to trade draft picks. (I'm not sure if this type of discussion is appropriate for this thread because it is basically me asking you guys for advice. I'm a newb when it comes to dynasty because i've never done one before)

I'm sitting at pick 1.3 and the owner of pick 1.9 is thinking about trading up to my spot. What type of compensation should i be looking to receive if i make this move? Maybe pick up a 2nd and a 6th?

 

[EBF]

I think anyone who feels that Charlie Whitehurst has a future in the NFL as a starting QB should probably rethink that position. His performance last night has to be one of the worst I've ever seen from any QB in the NFL. His accuracy is absolutely horrendous. Words do not do it justice. And I'm not talking wrong shoulder kind of stuff here. He was missing guys on short routes by 10-15 feet. On a regular basis. It was shocking to see how bad he is.

He was terrible in college, too. I'm not quite sure why he was drafted so high or why he was given this great opportunity by Seattle. He must have compromising photos of AJ Smith and Pete Carroll. Either way, he's the poster boy for my "you are who we thought you were" philosophy when it comes to college QBs. Guys with woeful accuracy and crap instincts who make terrible decisions under pressure don't suddenly learn how not to suck when they move from NCAA to NFL.

 

[EBF]

I have a dynasty startup draft tonight and we are able to trade draft picks. (I'm not sure if this type of discussion is appropriate for this thread because it is basically me asking you guys for advice. I'm a newb when it comes to dynasty because i've never done one before)I'm sitting at pick 1.3 and the owner of pick 1.9 is thinking about trading up to my spot. What type of compensation should i be looking to receive if i make this move? Maybe pick up a 2nd and a 6th?

He would have to be a fool to give you a 2nd and a 6th to move up only 6 spots. I would angle for something more realistic like 1.03/4th for 1.09/2nd.

 

[theglorydays]

I have a dynasty startup draft tonight and we are able to trade draft picks. (I'm not sure if this type of discussion is appropriate for this thread because it is basically me asking you guys for advice. I'm a newb when it comes to dynasty because i've never done one before)I'm sitting at pick 1.3 and the owner of pick 1.9 is thinking about trading up to my spot. What type of compensation should i be looking to receive if i make this move? Maybe pick up a 2nd and a 6th?

He would have to be a fool to give you a 2nd and a 6th to move up only 6th spots. I would angle for something more realistic like 1.03/4th for 1.09/2nd.

Oh okay, thanks for the response.

 

[SSOG]

I have a dynasty startup draft tonight and we are able to trade draft picks. (I'm not sure if this type of discussion is appropriate for this thread because it is basically me asking you guys for advice. I'm a newb when it comes to dynasty because i've never done one before)

I'm sitting at pick 1.3 and the owner of pick 1.9 is thinking about trading up to my spot. What type of compensation should i be looking to receive if i make this move? Maybe pick up a 2nd and a 6th?

The pick value calculator is designed for redraft, but I find it gives me a good idea of a starting point for trades in dynasty startups, too. Don't take it as gospel, but it's a nice place to start. Another idea would be to try to put some names to the picks and see how you feel about the trade.

 

[moderated]

I know this may sound rookie happy, but all 3 of mathews/spiller/best should be ranked in the top 10 rb dynasty rankings, and its a nobrainer opinion.Last years rb class sucked with slugs who ran 4.5's, so many are discounting this class due to the embarrasment of last years rb class. The top 3 guys in this class are elite.

Best has a history of major injuries (one of the few injuries that does, in my book, deserve the "injury prone" label- concussions). Mathews wasn't viewed as an elite talent by most until San Diego traded the farm to move up and take him. C.J. Spiller got put in perhaps the worst offensive situation in the NFL and runs a very real risk of spending the forseeable future in a dreaded Felix Jones-esque "changeup role".In my mind, the "Big 4" are all slam dunks over any of the rookies. I'd take Jonathan Stewart over them, too- I think he's more talented, I think he's more proven, and he's the same age as Mathews and Spiller. Mendenhall is also the same age and also comes in a much more proven commodity. Jamaal Charles is also 23, and he can match Best and Spiller in explosiveness and upside, but again, he's got more track record on him. We're up to 7 RBs aged 25 or younger with pedigree and NFL production. After that, it's just a matter of whether you'd prefer the young gambles like Mathews, Best, and Spiller, or the proven uberstuds like Gore, Williams, and Stewart.I have no problem ranking someone like an Adrian Peterson in the top 10 without hesitating, but I don't think any of these three guys are Adrian Peterson. I've got Best and Mathews as borderline top 10 guys, and Spiller as a bit below thanks to concerns about his touches. I certainly wouldn't call any of the rookies a "nobrainer" top 10 guy.

After the big 4 rbs the rookies are as good of an investment as any of the rbs left. I can understand ranking others ahead of them but dont think its really off base to have all 3 in the top 10.And im not someone who is historically bullish on rookies but these top guys from this years class are special in there own ways.I know many didnt consider mathews elite, but that is because most define elite with only pure speed which is ridiculous. mathews has elite vision, balance, power, and has very good speed. Overall he is an elite talent at the rb position.Best and spiller are just so explosive and have very good running skills as well. I agree best is a bit risky due to injuries but when i look at the guys after the top 4 none really stand out much over him due to age or various other reasons.I guess on 2nd thought calling them no-brainer top 10 dynasty rbs was a bit overstated as i can see the arguments against having them there but IMO they are all worthy of such lofty rankings.

 

[whodeywhodey]

Hey guys this is a fantastic thread and I value your opinion tremendously.

I have the 2nd pick tomorrow and the guy in front of me is going with Mathews.

Is Dez Bryant the no brainer here or should I go with Best?

 

[Patoons]

Hey guys this is a fantastic thread and I value your opinion tremendously.I have the 2nd pick tomorrow and the guy in front of me is going with Mathews. Is Dez Bryant the no brainer here or should I go with Best?

If it's a non-PPR, I don't know that Bryant is the no brainer, but he would be my pick. I always build my team surrounding wide receivers with the RB turnover and Bryant is the better talent compared to Best.If it's a PPR league, Bryant is the no brainer.

 

[DoubleG]

Hey guys this is a fantastic thread and I value your opinion tremendously.I have the 2nd pick tomorrow and the guy in front of me is going with Mathews. Is Dez Bryant the no brainer here or should I go with Best?

If it's a non-PPR, I don't know that Bryant is the no brainer, but he would be my pick. I always build my team surrounding wide receivers with the RB turnover and Bryant is the better talent compared to Best.If it's a PPR league, Bryant is the no brainer.

It also greatly depends on roster, starting reqs., scoring, etc. If you have Roddy White, DeSean Jackson, Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson and Michael Crabtree, then no, Bryant is not a no brainer, as you probably are very weak at RB. And even knowing if it's PPR doesn't necessariyl help as many think Best will be an outstanding pass catcher as well.Obviously, if you give us all that info, this is more of an AC question though.

 

[Sabertooth]

I just picked up Louis Murphy. I guess I don't see what is not to like about this guy. Here you have a young kid at just 23 years old that came in and made some impact on a woeful team. He's stayed healthy throughout preseason. He's the WR1 on a team with a much better QB. Schilens isn't anything to worry about, he can't stay on the field. DHB has had his dings as well and he's simply not as good as Murphy is. He's the guy I've been kicking the tires on all offseason. I just had to find a way to pull him off the wire.

I honestly like everything about Murphy. He's exactly the kind of player that comes out of nowhere.

 

[mcintyre1]

Would someone mind linking F&L's spreadsheet again? I keep forgetting to bookmark it and I can't remember what page it was last posted on.

 

[Man of Constant Sorrow]

Would someone mind linking F&L's spreadsheet again? I keep forgetting to bookmark it and I can't remember what page it was last posted on.

https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Au...amp;hl=en#gid=0

 

[thriftyrocker]

Is it just me, or is DeSean Jackson always banged up?

I love his unique talent, but he certainly seems more brittle than an average No. 1 receiver. I'm starting to see a rich man's Santana Moss here.

Jahvid Best is the truth!

Odd post combo here given both guys left games early with minor injuries they would have otherwise played through. At least DeSean got hit. Best just had "tightness" and "trouble warming up." Do you have reason to not be as concerned about Best?

 

[DoubleG]

Would someone mind linking F&L's spreadsheet again? I keep forgetting to bookmark it and I can't remember what page it was last posted on.

https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Au...amp;hl=en#gid=0

That's the older one...he updated just last week. I'm at work now and don't have time to dig through the thread but it's a few pages back.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Is it just me, or is DeSean Jackson always banged up?

I love his unique talent, but he certainly seems more brittle than an average No. 1 receiver. I'm starting to see a rich man's Santana Moss here.

Jahvid Best is the truth!

Odd post combo here given both guys left games early with minor injuries they would have otherwise played through. At least DeSean got hit. Best just had "tightness" and "trouble warming up." Do you have reason to not be as concerned about Best?

Best would have played in a regular season game. He had tightness before the game started. They took him out as a precaution and also because they didn't need to see anything more.

 

[Man of Constant Sorrow]

Would someone mind linking F&L's spreadsheet again? I keep forgetting to bookmark it and I can't remember what page it was last posted on.

https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Au...amp;hl=en#gid=0

That's the older one...he updated just last week. I'm at work now and don't have time to dig through the thread but it's a few pages back.

I don't know of any other spreadsheet, but I do have a link to his notes:

https://docs.google.com/document/edit?id=1r...P9RE&pli=1#

Is this what you were looking for?

 

[DoubleG]

Would someone mind linking F&L's spreadsheet again? I keep forgetting to bookmark it and I can't remember what page it was last posted on.

https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Au...amp;hl=en#gid=0

That's the older one...he updated just last week. I'm at work now and don't have time to dig through the thread but it's a few pages back.

I don't know of any other spreadsheet, but I do have a link to his notes:

https://docs.google.com/document/edit?id=1r...P9RE&pli=1#

Is this what you were looking for?

That's the one - the rankings are different then the other link. F & L said these were newer (notice VJax is lower and a few othe minor tweaks especially at WR)

 

[thriftyrocker]

Best would have played in a regular season game. He had tightness before the game started. They took him out as a precaution and also because they didn't need to see anything more.

Same word is used about DeSean: precaution. DeSean would have played in a regular season game. It's wrong to make conclusions about either based on last weekend's games.

 

[Man of Constant Sorrow]

Would someone mind linking F&L's spreadsheet again? I keep forgetting to bookmark it and I can't remember what page it was last posted on.

https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Au...amp;hl=en#gid=0

That's the older one...he updated just last week. I'm at work now and don't have time to dig through the thread but it's a few pages back.

I don't know of any other spreadsheet, but I do have a link to his notes:

https://docs.google.com/document/edit?id=1r...P9RE&pli=1#

Is this what you were looking for?

That's the one - the rankings are different then the other link. F & L said these were newer (notice VJax is lower and a few othe minor tweaks especially at WR)

Yeah, I was aware of that, but I assumed you meant the 1st one since you asked for the "spreadsheet". Sorry, for the confusion.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Mathews wasn't viewed as an elite talent by most until San Diego traded the farm to move up and take him.

I realize you're giving arguments "why not" but this pretty much just isn't true. They moved up for a reason - Houston wanted him too. While he's not Jonathon Stewart, there's been consistent hype on him since November (especially at the Shark Pool), and his combine performance really put him over the top as being a mid 1st pick instead of late 1st. Which is better?Player A: 4.45 40 time, 26 reps, 33.5 vert, 262 for 1681 and 19 TDsPlayer B: 4.41 40 time, 19 reps, 36 vert, 276 for 1808 and 19 TDs Both were drafted to top 10 offenses that like to run the ball. Both have little competition for carries. They're pretty much the same guy.

 

[SSOG]

I just picked up Louis Murphy. I guess I don't see what is not to like about this guy. Here you have a young kid at just 23 years old that came in and made some impact on a woeful team. He's stayed healthy throughout preseason. He's the WR1 on a team with a much better QB. Schilens isn't anything to worry about, he can't stay on the field. DHB has had his dings as well and he's simply not as good as Murphy is. He's the guy I've been kicking the tires on all offseason. I just had to find a way to pull him off the wire. I honestly like everything about Murphy. He's exactly the kind of player that comes out of nowhere.

I'm surprised he was on your wire. Even if he managed to make it through last season without getting picked up, the instant the story broke that Chaz Schilens' was going to be missing more time to injury, there should have been a scramble to add him. I like the pickup a lot.

 

[SSOG]

Mathews wasn't viewed as an elite talent by most until San Diego traded the farm to move up and take him.

I realize you're giving arguments "why not" but this pretty much just isn't true. They moved up for a reason - Houston wanted him too. While he's not Jonathon Stewart, there's been consistent hype on him since November (especially at the Shark Pool), and his combine performance really put him over the top as being a mid 1st pick instead of late 1st. Which is better?Player A: 4.45 40 time, 26 reps, 33.5 vert, 262 for 1681 and 19 TDsPlayer B: 4.41 40 time, 19 reps, 36 vert, 276 for 1808 and 19 TDs Both were drafted to top 10 offenses that like to run the ball. Both have little competition for carries. They're pretty much the same guy.

I was referring to how there was very little Mathews buzz before the draft, but then SD moved up to grab him and overnight he became the slam-dunk consensus #1 overall rookie pick.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Is it just me, or is DeSean Jackson always banged up?

I love his unique talent, but he certainly seems more brittle than an average No. 1 receiver. I'm starting to see a rich man's Santana Moss here.

Jahvid Best is the truth!

Odd post combo here given both guys left games early with minor injuries they would have otherwise played through. At least DeSean got hit. Best just had "tightness" and "trouble warming up." Do you have reason to not be as concerned about Best?

Best was given the "Barry Sanders treatment" after his dominant first series, according to beat writer Tom Kowalski. The coaching staff had seen all they needed to see. I have zero concerns about any "tightness" from Best on Saturday.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Mathews wasn't viewed as an elite talent by most until San Diego traded the farm to move up and take him.

I realize you're giving arguments "why not" but this pretty much just isn't true. They moved up for a reason - Houston wanted him too. While he's not Jonathon Stewart, there's been consistent hype on him since November (especially at the Shark Pool), and his combine performance really put him over the top as being a mid 1st pick instead of late 1st. Which is better?

Player A: 4.45 40 time, 26 reps, 33.5 vert, 262 for 1681 and 19 TDs

Player B: 4.41 40 time, 19 reps, 36 vert, 276 for 1808 and 19 TDs

Both were drafted to top 10 offenses that like to run the ball. Both have little competition for carries. They're pretty much the same guy.

I was referring to how there was very little Mathews buzz before the draft, but then SD moved up to grab him and overnight he became the slam-dunk consensus #1 overall rookie pick.

His hype train started in January. "Very little buzz" is laughable.Getting drafted in the 1st round by SD would have inflated any RB's value, but there was no question Mathews was a top 4 pick. He would have still been in consideration for 1st overall in rookie drafts if he had gone to Houston at pick 20, and that's the lowest he would have dropped.

I still have seen Spiller and Dez go ahead of him, so I don't see any slam-dunk consensus either.

 

[Sabertooth]

I just picked up Louis Murphy. I guess I don't see what is not to like about this guy. Here you have a young kid at just 23 years old that came in and made some impact on a woeful team. He's stayed healthy throughout preseason. He's the WR1 on a team with a much better QB. Schilens isn't anything to worry about, he can't stay on the field. DHB has had his dings as well and he's simply not as good as Murphy is. He's the guy I've been kicking the tires on all offseason. I just had to find a way to pull him off the wire. I honestly like everything about Murphy. He's exactly the kind of player that comes out of nowhere.

I'm surprised he was on your wire. Even if he managed to make it through last season without getting picked up, the instant the story broke that Chaz Schilens' was going to be missing more time to injury, there should have been a scramble to add him. I like the pickup a lot.

10 team league with 22 man rosters. We are all kind of dynasty noobs to boot, only being in the third season.

 

[thriftyrocker]

I just picked up Louis Murphy. I guess I don't see what is not to like about this guy. Here you have a young kid at just 23 years old that came in and made some impact on a woeful team. He's stayed healthy throughout preseason. He's the WR1 on a team with a much better QB. Schilens isn't anything to worry about, he can't stay on the field. DHB has had his dings as well and he's simply not as good as Murphy is. He's the guy I've been kicking the tires on all offseason. I just had to find a way to pull him off the wire. I honestly like everything about Murphy. He's exactly the kind of player that comes out of nowhere.

I'm surprised he was on your wire. Even if he managed to make it through last season without getting picked up, the instant the story broke that Chaz Schilens' was going to be missing more time to injury, there should have been a scramble to add him. I like the pickup a lot.

10 team league with 22 man rosters. We are all kind of dynasty noobs to boot, only being in the third season.

I was able to pick him up off waivers Sat morning in another league too. 10 teams, 23-man rosters. (I sense a theme.) 2 weeks ago most probably thought he was the 3rd best WR from Oakland to own dynasty-wise, so the fact he's unowned in some shallow leagues isn't too big of a surprise.He was owned at a couple different points last year in my league, but it's so shallow, it's hard to keep long term prospects for long term. I had to drop Jared Cook for him.

 

[SSOG]

I'm not trying to pimp my site too much and I'm not going to link to every article that goes up over there, but I just put up one today that I think is a vital read for any dynasty owner on the difference between expectations and expected value.

Basically, our expectations are what we think is most likely to happen, whereas expected value is the entire range of possible outcomes weighted based on how likely they are to happen. One of the biggest mistakes I see owners making is they value players based on expectations and not on expected value. Ranking based on expectations will lead to someone being right more... but ranking based on expected value will lead to someone being more right. It's a very important distinction. In the short run, betting expectations is a better way to assemble a team that falls multiple standard deviations away from league average (either high or low). Over a long enough timeline and with enough iterations, though, betting expected value will *ALWAYS* pay out more than betting expectations. It's a mathematical certainty.

I'm not going to get too much into the topic because I just wrote an entire article on it, but I really believe that expected value is the key to properly valuing youth against experience in dynasty rankings, among other things.

I was able to pick him up off waivers Sat morning in another league too. 10 teams, 23-man rosters. (I sense a theme.) 2 weeks ago most probably thought he was the 3rd best WR from Oakland to own dynasty-wise, so the fact he's unowned in some shallow leagues isn't too big of a surprise.

He was owned at a couple different points last year in my league, but it's so shallow, it's hard to keep long term prospects for long term. I had to drop Jared Cook for him.

Shallow leagues are always a different animal. I've never played in one- to be honest, they just don't hold any interest for me. The best part of dynasty for me is finding players developmental players and letting them develop on your roster until they're ready to contribute. That gets ruined when there are guys who are already contributors sitting out on waivers, instead. I can totally understand how someone else might feel differently, though.

 

[theglorydays]

is there any website that can give me the adps for dynasty rookie drafts?

 

[humpback]

I guess you're not a fan of Foster SSOG? I know he still has plenty of question marks, but 36 seems pretty low to me. You would really take Kareem Huggins over him?

 

[SSOG]

I guess you're not a fan of Foster SSOG? I know he still has plenty of question marks, but 36 seems pretty low to me. You would really take Kareem Huggins over him?

I was impressed with him this week against Dallas. He'll be moving up when I do my weekly update on Tuesday or Wednesday, probably settling right around RB31. His value will always be capped, though, because I don't think he's the long-term solution in Houston.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I guess you're not a fan of Foster SSOG? I know he still has plenty of question marks, but 36 seems pretty low to me. You would really take Kareem Huggins over him?

I was impressed with him this week against Dallas. He'll be moving up when I do my weekly update on Tuesday or Wednesday, probably settling right around RB31. His value will always be capped, though, because I don't think he's the long-term solution in Houston.

He is now.

 

[Ray Finkle]

Vick and Whitehurst are close in the rankings of both F&L and SSOG. Which one is more likely to be a starting QB in 2011?

 

[SSOG]

Vick and Whitehurst are close in the rankings of both F&L and SSOG. Which one is more likely to be a starting QB in 2011?

Whitehurst. A team with a shaky QB situation has already spent beaucoup resources to acquire him and make him their QB of the future. I'm operating under the assumption that some team will do the same with Vick next offseason, but Whitehurst is more likely to be a starter in 2011 because a team has already made that commitment.With that said, Vick is more likely to put up fantasy-caliber numbers if he does become a starter.

 

[SSOG]

I guess you're not a fan of Foster SSOG? I know he still has plenty of question marks, but 36 seems pretty low to me. You would really take Kareem Huggins over him?

I was impressed with him this week against Dallas. He'll be moving up when I do my weekly update on Tuesday or Wednesday, probably settling right around RB31. His value will always be capped, though, because I don't think he's the long-term solution in Houston.

He is now.

I don't see it. Kubiak is nothing if not a Shanahan disciple. A great offseason/TC/Preseason will cement Foster's place in the regular season, but that doesn't mean he's not going to be facing all sorts of challengers for his job in the coming years, beginning with this year's 2nd round pick, Ben Tate.Could Foster be the long term solution? Absolutely. But I don't think he is.

 

[humpback]

I guess you're not a fan of Foster SSOG? I know he still has plenty of question marks, but 36 seems pretty low to me. You would really take Kareem Huggins over him?

I was impressed with him this week against Dallas. He'll be moving up when I do my weekly update on Tuesday or Wednesday, probably settling right around RB31. His value will always be capped, though, because I don't think he's the long-term solution in Houston.

He is now.

I don't see it. Kubiak is nothing if not a Shanahan disciple. A great offseason/TC/Preseason will cement Foster's place in the regular season, but that doesn't mean he's not going to be facing all sorts of challengers for his job in the coming years, beginning with this year's 2nd round pick, Ben Tate.Could Foster be the long term solution? Absolutely. But I don't think he is.

F&L, where is Foster ranked now for you?I think it's premature to say he's the long-term solution right now as well, but I do think he can seize that role with a strong year. A lot of people seem to think that no matter what Foster does this year, Tate will be a major factor next season, and I just don't see it. A lot of people weren't all that high on him to begin with, and while he'll probably be fine physically, there's no guarantee. I think if Foster has a big year, they aren't going to take his role away and give it to an unproven guy coming off of injury just because.

I know Shanny/Kubiak have this reputation, but it's not quite as cut and dried as most people think. In their first 4 seasons in Denver together, they ran Terrell Davis into the ground. They also used Portis big time, but after that, it was really just a mix of injuries and mediocre RBs in Denver. Kubiak used Slaton a lot more than everyone expected as head coach. I guess what I mean is, most of the time when they've used a RBBC or revolving door it's been more about injuries or lack of talent than it has been because it's their MO. Foster seems to have impressed them big time, if he performs I think he'll be the longer term answer.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I guess you're not a fan of Foster SSOG? I know he still has plenty of question marks, but 36 seems pretty low to me. You would really take Kareem Huggins over him?

I was impressed with him this week against Dallas. He'll be moving up when I do my weekly update on Tuesday or Wednesday, probably settling right around RB31. His value will always be capped, though, because I don't think he's the long-term solution in Houston.

He is now.

I don't see it. Kubiak is nothing if not a Shanahan disciple. A great offseason/TC/Preseason will cement Foster's place in the regular season, but that doesn't mean he's not going to be facing all sorts of challengers for his job in the coming years, beginning with this year's 2nd round pick, Ben Tate.Could Foster be the long term solution? Absolutely. But I don't think he is.

F&L, where is Foster ranked now for you?I think it's premature to say he's the long-term solution right now as well, but I do think he can seize that role with a strong year. A lot of people seem to think that no matter what Foster does this year, Tate will be a major factor next season, and I just don't see it. A lot of people weren't all that high on him to begin with, and while he'll probably be fine physically, there's no guarantee. I think if Foster has a big year, they aren't going to take his role away and give it to an unproven guy coming off of injury just because.

I know Shanny/Kubiak have this reputation, but it's not quite as cut and dried as most people think. In their first 4 seasons in Denver together, they ran Terrell Davis into the ground. They also used Portis big time, but after that, it was really just a mix of injuries and mediocre RBs in Denver. Kubiak used Slaton a lot more than everyone expected as head coach. I guess what I mean is, most of the time when they've used a RBBC or revolving door it's been more about injuries or lack of talent than it has been because it's their MO. Foster seems to have impressed them big time, if he performs I think he'll be the longer term answer.

I think Kubiak gave Foster a chance late last year because he had no one else to turn to. Foster's performance in the last couple of games endeared him to the coaching staff, and they proceeded to fall in love with him after his performance in OTAs, training camp, and preseason. Right now, Kubiak is nothing short of twitterpated.I haven't updated, but I'd say Foster is probably around early 20s right now.

 

[Patoons]

I posted in the pool, but thought here may work as well. I'm trying to do some trending on dynasty wide receivers. I'll post more once it's complete.

Two requests:

1. Can guys who participated in dynasties (specifically 12 or 14 team ppr leagues PPR leagues) post links to their startup draft and list the year it's from? I have a number of startups from 2010 through 2005, but not much before. Any help in the 2006 and earlier range is much appreciated!

2. I have the following receivers listed as top performing receivers in recent years (considering adding Ocho Cinco and Jerry Rice to this list, but not sure they'll work with it for various reasons, nor would Chris Carter given his age). I have the following list so far:

Marvin Harrison

Randy Moss

Reggie Wayne

Jimmy Smith

Hines Ward

Terrell Owens

Rod Smith

Donald Driver

Isaac Bruce

Torry Holt

Anyone I'm grossly missing here?

 

[Patoons]

Hey guys this is a fantastic thread and I value your opinion tremendously.I have the 2nd pick tomorrow and the guy in front of me is going with Mathews. Is Dez Bryant the no brainer here or should I go with Best?

If it's a non-PPR, I don't know that Bryant is the no brainer, but he would be my pick. I always build my team surrounding wide receivers with the RB turnover and Bryant is the better talent compared to Best.If it's a PPR league, Bryant is the no brainer.

It also greatly depends on roster, starting reqs., scoring, etc. If you have Roddy White, DeSean Jackson, Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson and Michael Crabtree, then no, Bryant is not a no brainer, as you probably are very weak at RB. And even knowing if it's PPR doesn't necessariyl help as many think Best will be an outstanding pass catcher as well.Obviously, if you give us all that info, this is more of an AC question though.

I still don't think team situation matters. You draft the best player regardless.

 

[EBF]

I posted in the pool, but thought here may work as well. I'm trying to do some trending on dynasty wide receivers. I'll post more once it's complete.

Two requests:

1. Can guys who participated in dynasties (specifically 12 or 14 team ppr leagues PPR leagues) post links to their startup draft and list the year it's from? I have a number of startups from 2010 through 2005, but not much before. Any help in the 2006 and earlier range is much appreciated!

2. I have the following receivers listed as top performing receivers in recent years (considering adding Ocho Cinco and Jerry Rice to this list, but not sure they'll work with it for various reasons, nor would Chris Carter given his age). I have the following list so far:

Marvin Harrison

Randy Moss

Reggie Wayne

Jimmy Smith

Hines Ward

Terrell Owens

Rod Smith

Donald Driver

Isaac Bruce

Torry Holt

Anyone I'm grossly missing here?

http://www.nfl.com/players/derrickmason/profile?id=MAS078652

 

[Steed]

I think Kubiak gave Foster a chance late last year because he had no one else to turn to. Foster's performance in the last couple of games endeared him to the coaching staff, and they proceeded to fall in love with him after his performance in OTAs, training camp, and preseason. Right now, Kubiak is nothing short of twitterpated.I haven't updated, but I'd say Foster is probably around early 20s right now.

They couldn't have been endeared with him that much if they used a very high pick on Ben Tate, something Kubiak rarely does on that position.For Tate to not be a factor next year, Foster needs to have a big year and NOT fumble. Any Vol fan will tell you, that's a tall order. He didn't earn the "Fumbling Foster" moniker for no reason at all. All this talk about Tate not healing right is really wishful thinking. He broke his ankle and has top notch medical care looking after him. He'll be back healthy next year. How much of an opportunity he has is upto Foster.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

I just picked up Louis Murphy. I guess I don't see what is not to like about this guy. Here you have a young kid at just 23 years old that came in and made some impact on a woeful team. He's stayed healthy throughout preseason. He's the WR1 on a team with a much better QB. Schilens isn't anything to worry about, he can't stay on the field. DHB has had his dings as well and he's simply not as good as Murphy is. He's the guy I've been kicking the tires on all offseason. I just had to find a way to pull him off the wire. I honestly like everything about Murphy. He's exactly the kind of player that comes out of nowhere.

I'm surprised he was on your wire. Even if he managed to make it through last season without getting picked up, the instant the story broke that Chaz Schilens' was going to be missing more time to injury, there should have been a scramble to add him. I like the pickup a lot.

Probably the biggest difficulty that I have with my dynasty team is learning when to cut bait with a player. There's a couple of examples over the last two years that have come back to haunt me. Our dynasty league has a rule that cuts the rosters from 24 to 18 after each season. Following the 2008 season, I released MSW and Steve Smith (NYG). Walker had spent most of his career on the injury report, and Smith looked like he was going to be a possession receiver at best. Fast forward to 2009, and MSW finishes as the #25 WR and Smith #11. I'm good and relatively deep at WR regardless of releasing those two, but I would have a better team had I held onto them. Now I'm faced with a similar decision going into this season. I've just drafted a whole new crop of rookies that all have decent upside as I pay attention, and can get decent prospects in the late rounds of rookie drafts. However, if I need to make any roster moves, I'll either need to cut one of those rookies, or a player like Chaz Schilens or Laurent Robinson, or even Eddie Royal if he comes out of the gate struggling. I'm not looking for roster advice here, just maybe more of a theory that I can hold onto. Its so tough cutting bait with a player that you've bought into. Its then worse to see them overcome obstacles and perform on somebody else's roster. Curious how other people decide when to cut bait.

 

[SSOG]

F&L, where is Foster ranked now for you?I think it's premature to say he's the long-term solution right now as well, but I do think he can seize that role with a strong year. A lot of people seem to think that no matter what Foster does this year, Tate will be a major factor next season, and I just don't see it. A lot of people weren't all that high on him to begin with, and while he'll probably be fine physically, there's no guarantee. I think if Foster has a big year, they aren't going to take his role away and give it to an unproven guy coming off of injury just because.I know Shanny/Kubiak have this reputation, but it's not quite as cut and dried as most people think. In their first 4 seasons in Denver together, they ran Terrell Davis into the ground. They also used Portis big time, but after that, it was really just a mix of injuries and mediocre RBs in Denver. Kubiak used Slaton a lot more than everyone expected as head coach. I guess what I mean is, most of the time when they've used a RBBC or revolving door it's been more about injuries or lack of talent than it has been because it's their MO. Foster seems to have impressed them big time, if he performs I think he'll be the longer term answer.

The "reputation" I was referring to for Kubiak wasn't that he preferred RBBC, it was that he constantly brings in new RBs to challenge the incumbent. It's true that Terrell Davis and Clinton Portis managed to get a deathgrip on the workhorse role... but even when those guys were in town, the Broncos drafted Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, Quentin Griffin, etc. Kubiak seems to be a big fan of constantly bringing in fresh faces at RB to see if his current backs can stand up to the challenge. I'm not yet convinced that Arian Foster can. He'll have a chance to convince me otherwise once the season starts.Also, I'm a huge Ben Tate anti-fan, but the truth is the guy was a 2nd round draft pick. He's not completely forgotten just because Arian Foster is having a fantastic camp/preseason.

 

[BeTheMatch]

F&L, where is Foster ranked now for you?I think it's premature to say he's the long-term solution right now as well, but I do think he can seize that role with a strong year. A lot of people seem to think that no matter what Foster does this year, Tate will be a major factor next season, and I just don't see it. A lot of people weren't all that high on him to begin with, and while he'll probably be fine physically, there's no guarantee. I think if Foster has a big year, they aren't going to take his role away and give it to an unproven guy coming off of injury just because.I know Shanny/Kubiak have this reputation, but it's not quite as cut and dried as most people think. In their first 4 seasons in Denver together, they ran Terrell Davis into the ground. They also used Portis big time, but after that, it was really just a mix of injuries and mediocre RBs in Denver. Kubiak used Slaton a lot more than everyone expected as head coach. I guess what I mean is, most of the time when they've used a RBBC or revolving door it's been more about injuries or lack of talent than it has been because it's their MO. Foster seems to have impressed them big time, if he performs I think he'll be the longer term answer.

The "reputation" I was referring to for Kubiak wasn't that he preferred RBBC, it was that he constantly brings in new RBs to challenge the incumbent. It's true that Terrell Davis and Clinton Portis managed to get a deathgrip on the workhorse role... but even when those guys were in town, the Broncos drafted Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, Quentin Griffin, etc. Kubiak seems to be a big fan of constantly bringing in fresh faces at RB to see if his current backs can stand up to the challenge. I'm not yet convinced that Arian Foster can. He'll have a chance to convince me otherwise once the season starts.Also, I'm a huge Ben Tate anti-fan, but the truth is the guy was a 2nd round draft pick. He's not completely forgotten just because Arian Foster is having a fantastic camp/preseason.

Seems like this could be a Ryan Grant/Brandon Jackson situation. No one wanted to believe in Grant because he didn't have the pedigree. They kept wanting to believe that Jackson, the second-rounder, would get the job. This just struck me as being similar potentially, because I'm no fan of Tate either.

 

[SSOG]

I posted in the pool, but thought here may work as well. I'm trying to do some trending on dynasty wide receivers. I'll post more once it's complete.Two requests:1. Can guys who participated in dynasties (specifically 12 or 14 team ppr leagues PPR leagues) post links to their startup draft and list the year it's from? I have a number of startups from 2010 through 2005, but not much before. Any help in the 2006 and earlier range is much appreciated!2. I have the following receivers listed as top performing receivers in recent years (considering adding Ocho Cinco and Jerry Rice to this list, but not sure they'll work with it for various reasons, nor would Chris Carter given his age). I have the following list so far:Marvin HarrisonRandy MossReggie WayneJimmy SmithHines WardTerrell OwensRod SmithDonald DriverIsaac BruceTorry HoltAnyone I'm grossly missing here?

Derrick Mason, Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald, Joe Horn, Ochocinco, Smiff.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

F&L, where is Foster ranked now for you?I think it's premature to say he's the long-term solution right now as well, but I do think he can seize that role with a strong year. A lot of people seem to think that no matter what Foster does this year, Tate will be a major factor next season, and I just don't see it. A lot of people weren't all that high on him to begin with, and while he'll probably be fine physically, there's no guarantee. I think if Foster has a big year, they aren't going to take his role away and give it to an unproven guy coming off of injury just because.I know Shanny/Kubiak have this reputation, but it's not quite as cut and dried as most people think. In their first 4 seasons in Denver together, they ran Terrell Davis into the ground. They also used Portis big time, but after that, it was really just a mix of injuries and mediocre RBs in Denver. Kubiak used Slaton a lot more than everyone expected as head coach. I guess what I mean is, most of the time when they've used a RBBC or revolving door it's been more about injuries or lack of talent than it has been because it's their MO. Foster seems to have impressed them big time, if he performs I think he'll be the longer term answer.

The "reputation" I was referring to for Kubiak wasn't that he preferred RBBC, it was that he constantly brings in new RBs to challenge the incumbent. It's true that Terrell Davis and Clinton Portis managed to get a deathgrip on the workhorse role... but even when those guys were in town, the Broncos drafted Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, Quentin Griffin, etc. Kubiak seems to be a big fan of constantly bringing in fresh faces at RB to see if his current backs can stand up to the challenge. I'm not yet convinced that Arian Foster can. He'll have a chance to convince me otherwise once the season starts.Also, I'm a huge Ben Tate anti-fan, but the truth is the guy was a 2nd round draft pick. He's not completely forgotten just because Arian Foster is having a fantastic camp/preseason.

Arian Foster is the guy. Book it.

 

[SSOG]

Seems like this could be a Ryan Grant/Brandon Jackson situation. No one wanted to believe in Grant because he didn't have the pedigree. They kept wanting to believe that Jackson, the second-rounder, would get the job. This just struck me as being similar potentially, because I'm no fan of Tate either.

The fact that it's potentially similar means it is, by definition, potentially dissimilar. I'm not a Tate fan at all and I'm certainly not going to be leading the badwagon for him to get the job once he's back, I'm just saying that Arian Foster is going to face challengers for his job, and the first of them is going to be Ben Tate, who this franchise has just invested a 2nd round draft pick in. I'm not yet convinced that Foster can hold off the challengers just because he had a great offseason/camp. Gary Kubiak once said that Mike Anderson had the greatest offseason/camp/preseason of any offensive player he had ever seen. That year, Mike Anderson was a top 10 fantasy back. The next year, Mike Anderson was no longer a Denver Bronco.

 

[SSOG]

Arian Foster is the guy. Book it.

If you're really ready to close the book on the Houston Texans RB position, you should have Foster a lot higher than the early 20s. If I was convinced that Arian Foster was going to be the workhorse for the Houston Texans for the next 4 years, I'd have him in my top 15. The Houston RB position is a sleeping giant. Just look at what Steve Slaton did with the job two years ago (and, for that matter, last year- his rate stats were terrible, but he put up some great aggregate stats before he got hurt).

 

[Steed]

F&L, where is Foster ranked now for you?I think it's premature to say he's the long-term solution right now as well, but I do think he can seize that role with a strong year. A lot of people seem to think that no matter what Foster does this year, Tate will be a major factor next season, and I just don't see it. A lot of people weren't all that high on him to begin with, and while he'll probably be fine physically, there's no guarantee. I think if Foster has a big year, they aren't going to take his role away and give it to an unproven guy coming off of injury just because.I know Shanny/Kubiak have this reputation, but it's not quite as cut and dried as most people think. In their first 4 seasons in Denver together, they ran Terrell Davis into the ground. They also used Portis big time, but after that, it was really just a mix of injuries and mediocre RBs in Denver. Kubiak used Slaton a lot more than everyone expected as head coach. I guess what I mean is, most of the time when they've used a RBBC or revolving door it's been more about injuries or lack of talent than it has been because it's their MO. Foster seems to have impressed them big time, if he performs I think he'll be the longer term answer.

The "reputation" I was referring to for Kubiak wasn't that he preferred RBBC, it was that he constantly brings in new RBs to challenge the incumbent. It's true that Terrell Davis and Clinton Portis managed to get a deathgrip on the workhorse role... but even when those guys were in town, the Broncos drafted Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, Quentin Griffin, etc. Kubiak seems to be a big fan of constantly bringing in fresh faces at RB to see if his current backs can stand up to the challenge. I'm not yet convinced that Arian Foster can. He'll have a chance to convince me otherwise once the season starts.

This is a strange arguement. Kubiak constantly brought in fresh faces to challenge the incumbent? Quentin Griffin was a 4th rounder, Gary and Anderson were both 6th rounders. Is Kubiak not supposed to draft depth for a position? Should he never bring in new guys just because he has a stud at the top of the depth chart? I think you're reading a little much into the situation.

 

[Patoons]

Derrick Mason, Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald, Joe Horn, Ochocinco, Smiff.

Yea, a number of these guys won't work since they're too young, but I did miss Mason and Horn. Thanks!