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I've been debating going after VJax. I think he is there for the taking in one league, but not sure how much of this year I want to sacrifice as I think I have a very good chance to contend right now. I'd have to trade one of my starting WRs and be left to start Britt, Jacoby, or B.Tate. That is a pretty big risk. I don't think I'd have to give up any other starters.
A bird the hand is worth two in the bush (championship banners fly forever). If you can contend now - and I mean have an honestly legit chance to win it all, not "well if everything breaks perfect and these three guys all have career years...", then I would never sacrafice this for the possibility of doing what? Trying to put yourself in that exact same spot in the future.It takes quite a bit for a team to come together all at the same time (especially in a dynasty league) - when you have a good team that is solid at all the major positions, roll with it. Even in a startup dynasty league, one team is going to win THIS year. Last year I traded away Shonne Green, Leon Washington and Anthony Gonzalez all just before the trade deadline to land an RB to make my championship run. Does giving up those players hurt a little now? A little, but the trophy sitting across the room as I type this is all the reminder I need that I made the right decision.
I don't know if you're expecting me to disagree, here. I don't.Well, if 2008 counts as an aberration for Roethlisberger, then 2007 should count as the same for Rivers.
Flags fly forever... but two flags are better than one. If I was really built to win this season, I wouldn't give up fair value for VJax, but I've seen him going for way below fair value in a lot of leagues, and if I could get in on that, I certainly would... built to contend or not built to contend.
I think I have the second best team, but anything can happen. There are 2 others that might believe the same. The best team has won 3 of the last 4 years, and is still very young. I don't have a hole at WR (Starting Fitz, Roddy, MSW), but I can't resist trying to get better when I see an opportunity there. Especially when I know I'm going to have to get through that super team at some point. If you've seen Jax go for peanuts I guess the lesson is: offer peanuts.
I'd offer MSW for Jackson. If it goes through, I'd take that trade 10 times out of 10 regardless of my current team composition.
Oh yeah, obviously it goes without saying, but I'm saying it anyway. Standard FBGs scoring. We'll use Dodds' YTD PPG stats from the week before wildcard round of the playoffs to determine final winner.
I had that exact deal sent to me 3 times over the course of the last few months. On third offer over the weekend, I began to consider it, but wanted to counter for more than just MSW. I thought I had a team that was close to being a winner, but when I realize what a big hole VJax being unavailable has left on my team, I realize I'm farther away than I thought. Might as well just wait this out and not sell low imo.SSOG said:
Now I have to pressure you guys to upgrade the OG Mike Williams - BMW. It seems like that's the biggest question one making dynasty rankings would have to answer right now. Is he this year's MSW or this year's Troy Williamson? Big oversight not changing any of the SEA rankings given that was the biggest news of the roster cutdowns outside of Leinart, as well as not including BMW at all.
Williams isn't in the system yet. I've requested he be added, so he should be showing up sometime this afternoon. Still, while the hype for him right now is high, I'm not buying in too much. Remember, the guy has been out of the league since 2007. I get that Carroll loves him, but I still have questions about whether Carroll (a college coach) will succeed at the NFL level, and I remember how much Spurrier loved him some Taylor Jacobs. Once he's in the system, he'll debut somewhere around 50th.
Just pulled off the trade. Got: VJaxGave: CooleyBrittT.JonesNext year's 1st. I have Vernon and Zach, so Cooley was expendable. Sorry if this is too "Assistant Coach" Think this can add to the fluctuating value of VJax talk though. BTW, I honestly don't expect VJax to play at all this year. I'm just looking forward to starting Fitz, Roddy, and VJax together next year. If MSW gets hurt I really need Jacoby or a waiver scoop to contribute. Hard gamble for me that I hope pays off. Would love some thoughts.
With the wisdom you're showing here, I would certainly go out of my way to acquire your dynasty 1st round picks in the future!Even a 3% chance of being the top rookie pick next year is > V. Jackson's future expected value.Sorry, but I think that's the epitome of going all in with a pair of deuces.
Man that's harsh.But I do feel if you had waited a week or 2 you could have done much better. That pick seems exorbitant.V Jax is on my radar but I'm waiting till the season starts, I can't see his value going anywhere but down once people see that the NFL moves on without him. It's a cold business.
I'd put them more at 10% and 98%. No idea how on earth anyone could possibly believe VJax had a 0% chance of ever again putting up a top-10 fantasy season. Sensationalistic much?
The longer you wait, the more VJax is going to cost. Why? Because the missed time is factored into his cost right now. The more time he misses, the less time he has left to miss, and the less "missed time" is depressing his value. It's the same reason why players are worth more in redraft immediately after returning from injury than they are immediately after suffering injury.As for whether it's exorbitant... by my rankings, that's TE14, WR34, RB59, and a rookie 1st. I'm going to go ahead and call the "TE14/WR34/RB59" portion of the trade "pocket lint". It's a backup TE, an unproven WR with upside (and remember, those are the single most overrated commodity in fantasy football), and a 32 year old backup RB on a terrible offense. Pocket lint. The guys he picks up off the street to fill the empty roster spots will likely not be worth much less than the guys he just traded. It then boils down to whether you'd trade a rookie first + pocket lint for Vincent Jackson. If that's the #1 rookie pick, that looks like a bad trade. If that's the #3 rookie pick, that looks like a fair trade. If it's any later than that, it's a very strong trade. If Sebowski makes the playoffs, it's a steal. Look at the guys getting drafted in the late first round of rookie drafts. Seriously. Is it "exorbitant" to trade a guy like Golden Tate for Vincent Jackson? Seriously?
My comp's Joey Galloway and Deion Branch.Yours?Dude, Vjax was borderline top 10 with an elite passing offense beFORE he committed career suicide in his late 20's? Your 98% is far more rdiciulous than my 3%?
I've never been a big VJax fan but this is pretty short sighted IMO. Chance that he starts one game this year? Fair enough. It is looking like he may not play at all this year. There is still a chance that SD works out a trade sometime in the next six weeks and I wouldn't rule it out. What is the chance? Who knows. 50/50 maybe.But to say he will never be a top 10 receiver again seems to be overreaching. There is a risk he won't, no doubt. I am not one of those people who think that he will be top 10 no matter what offense or QB he has. But he isn't a guy who HAS to be in a pass heavy offense with a great QB to be successful either. Anytime a successful player changes teams things could go sour. Missing time isn't going to help him stay fresh, motivated, or sober. But he isn't that old and it seems quite possible that he could be top 10 again--something better than 50%--maybe 70%. Putting odds to these things are pretty arbitrary: suffice it to say that he has a better than average chance of being top 10 again at least once.
You say VJax has a 0% chance of being a top-10 WR again because his comps include Joey Galloway? Joey Galloway was a top-10 WR in Tampa Bay at age 34. You do understand what the words "zero percent" mean, right?Deion Branch is a good comp for Vincent Jackson? In what universe? Branch's best finish was WR22. VJax has finished the last two seasons 12th and 10th. Branch's career YPC is 12.8. VJax's is 17.2. Branch has 28 receiving TDs over the last 8 seasons. Vjax has 25 over the last 4 seasons. Branch has never topped 1,000 receiving yards. VJax has 1,000 in two straight seasons. Branch's career high for TDs was 5. VJax has topped that in 3 of the last 4 seasons. What next, are you going to list Davone Bess as a VJax comp, too? Dave Meggett? Mike Vrabel?Also, just pointing out, but holding out hardly qualifies as career suicide. Unless, of course, you think that Emmitt Smith committed career suicide by holding out 1993. You know, suiciding himself all the way to a league and SB MVP award. Or that Bo Jackson committed career suicide by holding out a season (and here I thought it was the INJURY that did him in...), or that Eric Dickerson committed career suicide TWICE with his holdouts and trade demands, or that Joey Galloway (you know, that Joey Galloway that was last seen finishing 5th in the NFL for the Tampa Bay Bucs) committed career suicide when he held out (it was the beginning of the end, you know- he only lasted 10 more years in the league from that point), or that 7 time AP All Pro John Hannah committed career suicide when he held out (only 6 of his All Pros occurred post-holdout).Finally, you never said 3%. You said that Sebowski had a 3% chance of landing the top rookie pick. You said that Vincent Jackson had a 0% chance of finishing in the top 10 again. And 0% is by far the most ridiculous number you could have thrown out. The very nature of 0% means that it is not physically possible for Vincent Jackson to ever put up a top 10 finish again. You're saying you could replay his career from this point a million times and he would not log a single top 10 finish in any of those various careers. He could even wind up going to the Patriots to replace Randy Moss and he still wouldn't have any chance whatsoever at ever finishing in the top 10 at any point in the next 10 years. Talk about a ridiculous position.
Ok, after reading that, I stand by the 0%.He was borderline top 10 BEFORE his "career hiatus" (does that sound mpre palatable?), and since the only scenario you can throw out is the Pats throwing 10's of millions of dollars at him to slavage his value, I'll say pigs fly first?Galloway was more valuable before his "career derailing", and if one scattershot season is your raison d'etre for not eating your words here, I'll still take my chances for zero%?Dude, you post like you're taking the bar exam and will be marked down for conceding ANY point? You screwed every pooch in the neighborhood with a wacky claim that VJax is a viable top 20 (much less top 10) dynasty receiver. You'd earn a helluva lot more respect if you just said MY BAD, cut your losses, and moved on to the next case?SSOG, what top 20ish dynasty WR would YOU trade straight up for Vjax right now? Everyone ranked below him in your most recent rankings?SILLY!
That was my thinking. None of the guys I gave up were in my starting lineup, including whoever I'd take with that pick next year. Meanwhile, VJax will play next year, and start for me next to Fitz and Roddy. I don't need him to be top 10. That is just great upside. All that is next year talk. A lot can happen in a year...For this year I lose Cooley who would only be sniff a start for me if Vernon gets hurt. Even then I have him ranked pretty even with Zach. T.Jones would be a desperation start for me with Mendy and Grant as my starters and M.Bush, McFadden, Portis, and Huggins behind them. I drafted Jones in the 10th round of this league as a startup 5 years ago. He's done his time for me, and he was needed to seal this deal. Britt would be my next guy in line if (when?) MSW gets hurt. That is my only real risk here and now for this year. So I need to use my roster spots on stop gap WRs for this year. I know I can;t count on Jacoby or Brandon Tate. But I think I can get my hands on an aging productive vet if I have to when the playoff runs comes around and the bad teams are looking to sell. If Schuab doesn't get hurt there is a 0% chance I miss the playoffs. I am in a cake division. That pick will not be a good one. I hope (go me!).Since I've pretty much laid out my roster there thought I'd add my backup QB is Stafford and my Ds are Jets and Steelers.
After reading that, I stand by my claim that you're really, really bad at math. You obviously have no comprehension whatsoever of the concept of percentages. Zero percent? There's no WR in the NFL today that has a 0% chance at ever finishing in the top 10. Not one. Especially not one coming off back-to-back top-12 seasons, under the age of 30, and likely to become one of the 5 highest-paid receivers in the entire NFL within the year.The fact that Joey Galloway had a top 10 finish isn't the reason why I have VJax ranked high. I never brought up the Galloway comparison in the first place. I just thought it was deliciously ironic that you said that a big reason why you thought that VJax had no shot at having a top 10 season was that his biggest comp was a WR that posted 3 top-10 seasons. You said that VJax wasn't a top-10 receiver and then compared him to a top-10 receiver and one of the most dissimilar WRs in the entire NFL today. And then accused me of rampant dog buggery.
Let's say you're right and VJax's floor is a 20-30 WR. That makes him a decent #3. What did I lose? Tim Tebow? Montario Hardesty? Limas Sweed? James Hardy?I think I'll take my chances.ETA: I am worried Britt will one day become an elite WR. That was my biggest worry about this deal.
It's a possibility, but if it makes you feel any better, you can remind yourself that Kenny Britt can't even beat out Nate Washington for the WR1 position in Tennessee at the moment.
You make a very strong point about value. Mea Culpa; I'm just getting into the Dynasty part of the game having done redraft for 10+ years. Did a dynasty startup draft 3 weeks ago and looking forward to playing chess vs checkers.I have read your convos with F&L extensively and learned quite a bit from them in the last two months. Haven't done a rookie/ FA draft yet and am still curious as to the values. My understanding from what I've read, is that the values tend to peter out around pick 6 or so making anything lower a real crapshoot. You're proposal is that it's even earlier than that. I understand that it will change from year to year but I am surprised that it would be that quick.Don't get me wrong, I'd rather you explain those numbers than defend them. Remember, I'm on a learning mission here and am uninterested in an argument. But I'd appreciate a quick rundown as to what value I can expect in next years rook/FA draft. I was careful to rebuff all trades involving future picks till I could get a bead on them. Perhaps you could just give me a link and afford me the chance to read up further.I certainly liked how you added the columns on the proposed trade though. I understand lint completely. And early pick value somewhat. I rarely (ok never) have lint on my redraft because it's a 16 player roster. But I certainly have lint on my dynasty 21 man roster.OTOH, it's been my experience (in redraft) that once the season starts people can get a little panicky about non performing players. Especially if they figure to contend and who doesn't in the first week of redraft?So it's been my working model to let my opponents see what their team can do after a week or 2 and take advantage of that panic. I understand that dynasty is not the same and that strategy wont be as effective but it's "what I know."
0%
98% 
He's been a top 10 WR once, and that was as WR10. We don't know where he will play in 2010 or beyond, and thus we don't know anything about how many targets he will get, who his teammates and coaches will be, the offensive philosophy, etc. You are way overestimating his chance at being a top 10 WR again IMO. And I own VJax on one of my two dynasty teams (partnered with Couch Potato), having traded for him this offseason before the holdout situation developed. I wouldn't trade for him today, and, where I thought we got a steal at the time, I think we now got an upgrade, but a much lesser upgrade.
It does until I remember I have him in another dynasty. Then I think "oh well he'll help me in the other league" but then I remember that league is free and it shouldn't mean anything except I really like beating those sons of #####es. Long story short, I have trouble letting go of the players I've grown attached to (I'm still pulling for Chad Jackson and Greg Jones).
A first round rookie pick has something like a 40-60% chance of becoming a quality FF player. Even many of the prospects who ultimately bust have "sell high" windows where you can trade them for considerable value (Laurence Maroney, Darren McFadden, Ashley Lelie, etc). I don't like to trade these picks. And yes, I think you're seriously undervaluing them. A second round rookie pick has something like a 20-30% chance of becoming a quality FF player. One of these picks is not worth a lot, but when you have 3-4 of them in a single draft, you have a good shot at landing an impact player.
Depends. I have done the full "blow it up" rebuild at the start of the season when I knew my team was hopeless. Other times I have waited until near the trade deadline. Even the best teams are usually only 1-2 key injuries or disappointments away from missing the playoffs. Even the worst teams are usually only 1-2 surprise breakouts away from becoming contenders. I'd say give your team a fair chance to unfold. It it's becoming abundantly clear that you're hopeless, start making moves for the future.
My problem with that is that once I draft them I feel pretty pot committed on them and don't like letting them go for much less than I paid to get them. That's why I love to trade draft picks before I make them unless I think there is a decent chance it can be a top 3 pick. Then I hold on for dear life.
You're right that 98% is too high because it underestimates things like injury, but I'd be very confident with a projection in the 80+% range. At the end of this season, VJax is likely to become, at age 28, one of the 5 highest paid WRs in the entire NFL. He just came off a season in which he ranked 10th in points despite ranking 33rd in targets. How many 28 year old WRs have become one of the 5 highest paid receivers in the league and then NOT gone on to post any top-10 fantasy finishes?0%
98%
He's been a top 10 WR once, and that was as WR10. We don't know where he will play in 2010 or beyond, and thus we don't know anything about how many targets he will get, who his teammates and coaches will be, the offensive philosophy, etc. You are way overestimating his chance at being a top 10 WR again IMO. And I own VJax on one of my two dynasty teams (partnered with Couch Potato), having traded for him this offseason before the holdout situation developed. I wouldn't trade for him today, and, where I thought we got a steal at the time, I think we now got an upgrade, but a much lesser upgrade.
In a typical year, there's a very strong "top tier" of players that extends anywhere from 2-4 players deep. Those "top-tier" picks are generally about as valuable as a pick somewhere in the 3rd round of a startup dynasty draft. The guys in the "next tier" are more like a 10th round startup pick. Looking at this season, you're going from Best/Spiller to... who, Demaryius Thomas? I think he's the clear #5 pick in this year's rookie drafts, and I've only got him ranked as WR28, among the likes of Dwayne Bowe, Pierre Garcon, and Jeremy Maclin. The dropoff cannot be understated.Obviously the #1 pick is always a "top-tier player". The #2 pick will likewise always net you an elite prospect. The #3 pick is generally a very safe bet to get you an elite prospect, too. Things start getting hairy around pick #4, which may be the bottom of tier 1 or it may be the top of tier 2. In terms of valuing future picks, I'd mark a strong dropoff between pick #3 and pick #4, and another strong dropoff between pick #4 and pick #5.
Typical going rate in my league is 2 firsts for a stud, and I think it's an absolute steal for whoever is getting the stud. Last year, I gave up a late 2009 first and my 2010 first (which also proved to be late) for Frank Gore. Someone else gave up the #4 overall last year and a first in 2010 (which wound up being the #5) for Andre Johnson. I thought both of those were highway robbery. At the same time, I sold Randy Moss for the #2 pick in 2009 and a first rounder in 2010 (wound up being the #4 pick). I felt that was a different deal entirely, given Moss's age and the fact that both of the picks were high picks (I thought there was a good chance the 2010 pick would have been #1 overall).As for when to give up on a year... if your team is absolute garbage, it's never too early to get the aging assets off in favor of some young assets. The longer you wait, the more it hurts you in the long run. Just be sure before you begin that your team is really garbage. The guy who traded Frank Gore and Andre Johnson last year had Sidney Rice and Rashard Mendenhall sitting on his roster. If he'd kept them around, he would be a major contender right now. Instead, he's got Lesean McCoy, Percy Harvin, Mike Williams (Tampa) and Dexter McCluster to show for his efforts trading away Gore and Johnson. Stupid.
Good question. I'd like to know the total sample population (total number of 28 year old WRs who became (at that age) one of the 5 highest paid WRs in the league, and for a new team, since that's what seems almost certain for Jackson now), and the total number of them who did go on to post one or more top 10 finishes (and exactly how many they posted), and the total number of them who did not go on to post one or more top 10 finishes. Then we could see if your question actually holds any predictive value. Maybe Chase or Doug can help us out with this.
I can name a 29 year old one. He was just cut by the Vikings.
Berrian was never one of the 5 highest paid receivers in the NFL. In terms of money per year, his $7 million ranked outside the top 10. His guaranteed money per year of $2.7 million ranked outside of the top 10. There were at least 5 deals around at that time with a higher percentage of guaranteed money. All in all, no matter how you measure a contract's value, Berrian was never anywhere near the top 5 at his position.http://www.footballoutsiders.com/under-cap...-wide-receivers
Was Berrian just cut by the Vikings? If so, I missed it, but I have been away from the news all day.EDIT: Hint...I think he is referring to someone involved in a trade we made a few years ago. Although, he is 32 now.
Javon Walker... not Berrian
I just hope VJax doesn't get mugged in Vegas and then witness a murder in a limo and never recover from injuries.
That's hilarious. I didn't intend this to be a pop quiz. Only so many WRs were cut by Minnesota last weekend. Berrian, Camarillo, and Greg Lewis are still on the team, so it's none of those guys. It's also not Jaymar Johnson either - he wasn't cut either.He actually turns 32 in October.
Walker not finishing in the top 10 had more to do with injuries than anything else. Vjax has a good shot a finishing top ten at least one more time in his career barring injury and I don't see how someone in here said he had a 0% chance of finishing top ten.
Heh, I misread the first post and thought you were saying he was a 29 year old WR *TODAY*, which would have had to be Berrian. I was confused about the "just cut" part, but I read "29 year old Vikings WR" and couldn't think of anyone else that you could possibly be referring to.As for Javon Walker... he was made one of the 5 highest paid WRs at age 28, and he responded with a top 10 season. He was made one of the 5 highest paid WRs a second time at age 30 and never had a good season after that. Obviously it's an interesting case (since he twice received one of the five richest contracts in the league), but even in the craziest of situations (the guy was wrecked by injuries and became a head case after a teammate died in his arms), he still put up a top 10 season after being rewarded with one of the 5 biggest contracts in the league at age 28.
You guys realize that Jam Russell started 15 games that year? Javon was signed in March 2008 to a six year 55 million dollar deal. Jam was drafted in 2007.Certainly that's part of the risk in VJax. If he gets signed to Seattle, Hasselbeck falls over, and Whitehurst starts (and fails miserably), he might be 31 or 32 before they have a decent and experienced QB. When Carroll is fired after 2011 for putting all his faith in Whitehurst, VJax might start to look like a Houshmandzadeh to the next coaching staff.As SSOG points, there's good landing spots too. I own him in 3 leagues and I'm currently holding. But there's certainly guys in that tier I'd do a sideways move for. And one guy in the next tier (Nicks).
There's some discussion in his message board. Just follow the link on the previous page for the change log. This seems to be another case of SSOG going for pedigree (albeit limited) over production (albeit preseason). It seems to me that Roberts is a bust. A small WR with bad hands is a WR who gets cut. Given Breaston is a good returner, there's little room for him on the active roster.I like both Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders. One of them is going to be useful in a year or two, maybe sooner. Brown did well enough that the Steelers cut Stefan Logan (ace returner) in order to keep him active. There's a big long term opportunity here when Ward finally hangs them up. Stephen Williams has a lot more value for me. All news from camp has been glowing. All preseason performance has been great. There's no reason he can't beat out Breaston and Doucet over the next year or so. Whether Hall or Skelton is a good enough QB is TBD, but that still gives him more near term value than Brown (more chance for relevance in late 2010 or 2011). I've been offered lower upside/higher chance of success guys like Douglas and Edelman for him and turned it down pretty easily. I would put Stephen Williams beside guys like Brandon Tate and Eric Decker - guys I think could be great if they continue to develop. I would put Antonio Brown beside guys like DHB and Ramses Barden - pure lottery tickets who have talent but need some breaks to be relevant.
He was in my rankings, it's just that for some reason he wasn't displaying. I unranked him and then re-ranked him, and now he's showing up properly. No idea what was causing it, but thanks for the heads up.I've got him in the big "Tier 8" bucket along with guys like Gaffney, Gilyard, Decker, Stroughter, and DHB.
For what it's worth, I do have Stephen Williams next to Eric Decker, and I have both guys a full tier ahead of Ramses Barden. I have DHB alongside both of them, but I think DHB is a very high-upside player with a high "urgency factor", and therefore a strong gamble at the end of your roster.Also FWIW, I have Julian Edelman in the same tier as Stephen Williams and I have Harry Douglas in the tier below, so it's not like I'm suggesting that I'd trade Stephen Williams for either of those two guys, either. When you get down to the end of my rankings, they're more "buckets" than numerical rankings. All of the value 2 guys are essentially equal. All of the value 1 guys are essentially equal. The value 2 guys are solid roster stashes. The value 1 guys are desperation roster stashes unless you're in a ridiculously deep league (I wouldn't roster any of them in my 10-team, 30-man, no-kicker dynasty that's the equivalent of a 12-team, 27-man dynasty in terms of players rostered). Which reminds me that I need to bump Harry Douglas up from the 1 value tier to the 2 value tier along with Edelman, Williams, Decker, and Heyward-Bey. In my mind, all of those guys are interchangeable. Pick a favorite and roster him.
I don't see the urgency in DHB. They'll let him flail for another year if it comes to it. Next September is really the make it or break it point for him. He's not going to get cut if he has 20 catches and 20 drops this year, and Louis Murphy continues to look better. It's not a Jam Russell situation because there seems to be some effort and progress even if it doesn't make a difference on Sundays this year. The chance of a breakout season is pretty low.Just looking at guys with the same value score, the urgency is much higher for Floyd and Aromashodu. These guys have to prove they deserve to be NFL starters this year or else their window is over. You're pretty low on these guys, obviously. Death Valley low.
