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Dependant on starting requirements, of course. No VBD research done or taken into account. QB1 (Rodgers) = QB4 (Manning) + QB10 (Ryan)RB1 (AP or CJ) = RB6 (Mendy) + RB15 (Bradshaw)WR1 (CJ) = WR6(Austin) + WR20 (Jennings)TE1 (Gates) = TE4 (Witten) + TE 7 (Hernandez)
Good point. There would have to be a value study done with every player being graded on the scale, regardless of position.Why Green-Ellis? He doesn't seem to fit the profile (a pedigreed player).
I'd rather have Nicks than Fitzgerald, so anything given to me with Nicks for Fitzgerald is gravy. And for disclosure purposes, I'm in two dynasty leagues... in one I have Nicks and in the other I have Fitz... I wish I had Nicks instead of Fitz in the latter league.
Agreed. Nicks is top 3, Fitz top 5 or 6, to me.
I'm trying to lock down the intrapositional values, to really get the dropoff values correct within the position. That means I need to know what QB1 is worth relative to the other QBs, and what RB1 is worth relative to the other RBs, and so on down the line. After that, we'll take a look at cross-positional values.Also, if you'd target Freeman to pair with Manning, then where do you have Freeman ranked? Is he QB10 in your rankings? QB12? QB16?
There will be. Again, I have raw CPV scores that have been spit out by a formula, I'm just attempting to do some curve fitting, to smooth out the value curves and get the dropoffs right within the positions. Once that's been done, CPV scores will be comparable across positions. Hence the name Cross Postional Value.
It's not just about pedigree. Kyle Orton wasn't a pedigreed player, but 3 months ago he could have been the poster child for someone who was being written off too early. When I see Green-Ellis, I see a guy who is playing much better than he was a year or two ago, but whom everyone seems to be valuing exactly the same as they were a year or two ago (when he was bad and everyone decided that was all he'd ever be).Law Firm has very quietly been improving his game, and he's actually been a pretty effective player this year. DVOA is obviously a flawed metric when it comes to measuring individual player values, but the DVOA top 10 right now is Foster, Charles, Law Firm, Hillis, Tolbert, McCoy, McFadden, Tomlinson, Greene, and Bradshaw. When I look at that list, I see four guys that are consensus top-12 dynasty backs (Foster, Charles, McCoy, McFadden), two more that are on the cusp (Hillis and Bradshaw), one more that would be there if he wasn't 31 years old (Tomlinson). That leaves Tolbert, Greene, and Law Firm. Tolbert is, in my eyes, clearly going to be sitting behind Mathews for several years after what San Diego spent to acquire him, even if he *IS* the goods. That leaves Greene and Law Firm, who both make my list of quality targets. Greene's obviously benefiting from his line, while Law Firm benefits from the efficiency of the New England offense as a whole... but Greene's still going to have his line next year, and BJGE is still going to have Tom Brady. Both guys are 25, and both guys are potentially starters in favorable situations next year. I'm not saying I'd give up a ton to acquire Law Firm, but he does make a very intriguing buy low. If I was going to be picking late in the 2nd round, I'd happily ship my pick off for Law Firm right now.
Awesome. Which is exactly why I said "The names in parentheses are the guys who currently occupy that spot in my rankings, but if your rankings differ, use the guy who you would rank at that position- remember, we're trying to get GENERAL positional values, not debate the values of one individual player."If Fitzgerald isn't your #1 receiver, then substitute the name of your #1 receiver there. If Nicks isn't your #6 receiver, then substitute the name of your #6 receiver there. The point of the exercise is that I'm trying to find out what the #1 overall receiver is worth when compared to the #6 overall receiver, not that I'm trying to find out what Fitzgerald is worth compared to Nicks.
OK. I thught you were just listing the high draft guys and he just stuck out to me as not fitting in the list.
High draft guys are always a great place to start compiling a list (especially highly drafted RBs, because pedigree matters much more at RB than it does at WR), but the goal is to pick guys who people seem to have developed a blind spot for and are writing off too early. Ryan Fitzpatrick's another guy like that- if Brian Brohm was putting up the stats that Fitz has been putting up, he'd be a no-brainer top 20 dynasty QB... but since it's Fitzpatrick, who everyone has long ago decided was terrible, he's barely cracking the top 30.
He's a prospect and most of those guys don't become stars, but he does have potential. He is worth rostering as your third QB. I liked what I saw this Sunday that's for sure. His mobility, his arm, and his decision making were all good.
Hmm...my QBs aren't straight rankings, but here's a shot:Rivers/RodgersOrton/VickBrady/Freeman/Bradford/PManning/EManningSo I would be trading Rodgers or Rivers, who are kind of a QB1 tie for me (Rivers a better passer but Rodgers gets rushing) and I would trade one for Orton and Freeman, about QB3/4 + QB6-9 ishI dislike rankings in general because there are guys I pretty much won't ever have on my team. All my dynasty teams have Rodgers, Rivers, Orton, Vick, Freeman. At least 2 of them, if not 3. And then I only have other guys if I need to, like Eli on one team out of a lack of trade value for him, and a strong team already. So I don't really rank, I find the guys I think will be top 5, obtain the cheapest one, and then pick guys with a shot at top 5 IMO, such as Freeman/Bradford (in this case).Don't know how helpful that is, because to me, Peyton and Brady and Brees aren't even "ranked" until I have a gun to my head.
I don't maintain an ordered set of rankings. I simply felt compelled to comment given the WR example you gave, which was considerably off base for me.
Right, and I understood and anticipated that someone might have thought some of the examples were considerably off base, which is why I added the disclaimer that "The names in parentheses are the guys who currently occupy that spot in my rankings, but if your rankings differ, use the guy who you would rank at that position- remember, we're trying to get GENERAL positional values, not debate the values of one individual player."I don't maintain an ordered set of rankings. I simply felt compelled to comment given the WR example you gave, which was considerably off base for me.
Anthony Armstrong. He's a great story (27 year old rookie who came from lower level arena league) who is making the most of his opportunity. I own him in one league but I'm not all that high on his long term prospects. If Washington was to bring in a good WR this offseson through the draft or FA, Armstrong probably moves to a WR3 role at best. He's a good deep threat, but doesn't offer all that much otherwise.
In a dynasty league (which forms the basis of this thread), guys like that just don't get dropped to the waiver wire. At best you may get them cheaply in a trade from owners that no longer believe in them. I have to assume your keeper leeague has limited roster space and you don't keep all that many players from year to year.You called it, SSOG - The same guy that gave up on Beanie Wells in one of leagues, "got tired" of Donald Brown on his roster (bid on Thigpen for his QB2 instead), I will get a crack at him next week in auction keeper. Steve Smith (NY) and Cutler are other guys that people just let go.'Tis the season to see who everyone else is getting tired of and picking up some sleepers for a 2011 turnaround.
QB1(Rodgers) = QB4 (Manning) + QB6(Ben Rothlisberger) + QB10(Kyle Orton)RB1(Chris Johnson) = RB6(Rashard Mendenhall) + RB14(DeAngelo Williams)WR1(Calvin Johnson) = WR6 (Hakeem Nicks) +WR12(Michael Crabtree)TE1(Jermichael Finley) = TE4(Dustin Keller) + TE8 (Dallas Clark)If you want more combinations just PM me. I maintain a spreadsheet of my top 120 players with a Trade Value assigned to each player.
I've been trying to think about an answer to the initial question posed on values, but this answer illustrates part of the problem, and lets us know why most folks doing rankings ultimately give up on this type of analysis. On a killer team, a playoff team, the value of the #1 QB (RB/WR..whatever) is much higher when the rest of his lineup is already filled with quality players. On a rebuild, two or three second and third tier players combined may be far more valuable than a single player, no matter his rank.Cross positional values pose an even bigger challenge, as values really do vary wildly from league to league, and league size has an inordinate impact on QB values in particular.
He's a special teamer/role player/situational deep threat holding a spot until the Redskins draft or sign a playmaking No. 1, pushing Snatana Moss into No. 2 where he belongs.
Actually it is a dynasty of sorts, is based on salary cap, so you can keep as many players as you wish with the automatic salary increases. That's why I was so shocked with wells and now smith, brown and cutler on the market next week. I am shocked and will definitely put a moderate bid. Thee are a lot of teams vying for the playoffs, teams are cutting players they are not using. These are the first good players being dropped all year....In a dynasty league (which forms the basis of this thread), guys like that just don't get dropped to the waiver wire. At best you may get them cheaply in a trade from owners that no longer believe in them. I have to assume your keeper leeague has limited roster space and you don't keep all that many players from year to year.You called it, SSOG - The same guy that gave up on Beanie Wells in one of leagues, "got tired" of Donald Brown on his roster (bid on Thigpen for his QB2 instead), I will get a crack at him next week in auction keeper. Steve Smith (NY) and Cutler are other guys that people just let go.'Tis the season to see who everyone else is getting tired of and picking up some sleepers for a 2011 turnaround.
Wow. It's shocking that any one of Donald Brown, Beanie Wells, Steve Smith (NY) or Jay Cutler would be on the waiver wire of a dynasty league let alone all of them.Their loss is your gain I guess.fdctrumpet said:Actually it is a dynasty of sorts, is based on salary cap, so you can keep as many players as you wish with the automatic salary increases. That's why I was so shocked with wells and now smith, brown and cutler on the market next week. I am shocked and will definitely put a moderate bid. Thee are a lot of teams vying for the playoffs, teams are cutting players they are not using. These are the first good players being dropped all year....Dr. Octopus said:In a dynasty league (which forms the basis of this thread), guys like that just don't get dropped to the waiver wire. At best you may get them cheaply in a trade from owners that no longer believe in them. I have to assume your keeper leeague has limited roster space and you don't keep all that many players from year to year.fdctrumpet said:You called it, SSOG - The same guy that gave up on Beanie Wells in one of leagues, "got tired" of Donald Brown on his roster (bid on Thigpen for his QB2 instead), I will get a crack at him next week in auction keeper. Steve Smith (NY) and Cutler are other guys that people just let go.'Tis the season to see who everyone else is getting tired of and picking up some sleepers for a 2011 turnaround.
Take wells, much more potential to be a featured back. I see too much of a reggie bush role for spiller.I'd like to get some opinions on Beanie Wells' prospects for the future.I was offered Beanie straight up for CJ Spiller in a dynasty league and I really don't know whether I should make that deal or not.... CJ clearly has been a disappointment, but Beanie can't seem to stay healthy.Appreciate your feedback!
well except for he is another year older, has missed ttime due to injury and unless Carolina improves the Oline QB situation (possible it couldnt be anyworse)What is everyones obsession with Stewart anyway? If I owned him I would move him to some Stewart lover, seems every dynasty league has a least 2, I'd let this guy be someone elses problem
I was on the Stewart bandwagon, but you have to draw the line somewhere. I read in they dynasty trade thread that someone moved Stewart for MJD! His value is too high and if you have him, I would start looking to move him.
Is your value position specific or universal? I need to start doing something like this, and am curious about yours. Any info you can offer in to your rankings, trade value, formula, or research would be much appreciated.Q-Bert said:
Amen. Super overrated here for some reason.
He's still quite young. His injury is a concussion and not a leg injury that will impede his performance once he's over it. His oline and qb situation is no worse than it was in the beginning of the season.As for everyone's obsession, I don't know. I own him as a prospect and feel like maybe I am overvaluing him a bit. I think he's a nice depth guy going forward.
Where do you rate him? I have him as a Top 30 guy right now. In with Felix Jones and guys like Brandon Jackson.
Not that you asked me, but I have him higher than Felix and much higher than Jackson. I have him top 15-18, around the Knowshons, Beanies, and Greenes. I like his talent and think he is starting material, I am just sick of waiting and weary of the injuries. Some have him as high as top 5-6.
Wow, a couple reactions:- You have Felix and B Jackson in the same vicinity (as each other)? Really? At least Felix has upside. Jackson has proven that he isn't very talented- Most people still have Stewart as a top-10 dynasty RB. Which is nowhere near Felix and Brandon Jackson. I think you know this already, which makes it curious that you pretend having Stewart as a top-30 guy right now is somehow in line with the norm.
Now someone dropped spiller in dynasty....talk about giving up too soon! I will find a spot for the 2010 top ten pick somewhere.
Won a lot of guys a lot of leagues last year. He's only a half year older than Mathews. It's easy to keep him in the top ten when you compare him to guys in the 2nd ten like Mathews, Best, and Wells which have only caused "problems" for owners.
I think the time to move him and get decent value has come and gone. People are really gun shy now and the one league I own him in I haven't even been approached with a buy low offer (not a good sign).I haven't seen enough since the season started to give up on him. I think this is akin to how many people felt about McFadden a year ago - admittedly an apples and oranges comparison, but if you listened to the conventional wisdom at that time you would have sold McFadden for a song and in retrospect that would have been a mistake. IMO if you have held Stewart this long, continue to do so since I don't think anyone you can get in trade has his potential upside.
Would you rather hold Avery over Danario or Clayton? I think Clayton will resign and has a great repoir with Bradford. Robinson and Gibson are also on the dynasty roster bubble. Seems like a big crapshoot. Which two are shining in STL for the next 3 years?Another guy I forgot aboutonnie Avery WR STL: He's hit the injury bug his first two seasons, and he's hasn't even shown that much in the time that he was healthy, but I view Sam Bradford as a potential Peyton Manning type, so any guy who might become his #1 receiver is worth a stash in my book. In leagues with small rosters and no IR, he's probably already been dropped. Stash him.
Yep. The thing about Stewart is that on talent alone he smokes almost anyone you could consider ranking above him. There's just no reason to sell right now unless you think his injuries will be a chronic problem. He's only 23 years old. His time will come. When it does, he'll be a top 5-10 dynasty RB again.
Aha, but that's where the math comes in. Remember how I said that player values were determined by your odds of starting a player in any given week? Those odds vary by league size. In a 12-teamer, QB14 is actually going to see the field a good portion of the time, meaning he has solid value. In an 8-teamer, he won't see the field under any circumstances, meaning his value is essentially nil. That's the huge strength of our value scores- they're totally adjustable based on things like league sizes or starter requirements. The goal is to have a field where you fill in how many players start at any given position in an average week, and the value scores will automatically be recalculated and specifically tailored to your league setup.As an example: say you play in a 12-team 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 Superflex, 1 RB/WR flex, 1 WR/TE flex league. In an average week, you might have 20 starting QBs, 34 starting RBs, 40 starting WRs, and 14 starting TEs. Instead of trying to mentally adjust the values to reflect that, you could just fill those values into a form and all the math will automatically be recalculated on the fly.renesauz said:
Personally, I rank based on how I see a player's career playing out, and I only change that ranking if something causes me to re-evaluate that assumption. Coming into this season, I assumed that Stewart would provide minimal value this year, so the fact that he provided minimal value this year is not cause for me to re-evaluate. I'm ranking based on future value, so the injuries don't matter unless they appear to be chronic or degenerative. If anything, Carolina's treatment of DeAngelo Williams (shutting him down for an injury he could have returned from) could possibly be viewed as an indication that DeAngelo isn't in Carolina's long-term plans, which would be a positive for Stewart... although I think that would involve just a little bit too much reading of the tea leaves.As I always say with respect to guys like VJax and Stewart... I think of them like the 2011 #1 overall draft pick. Is the 2011 #1 overall draft pick going to score any points for me this year? Of course not. Should I lower the value of the 2011 #1 draft pick halfway through the season because I suddenly realize it's doing nothing for me this year? Of course not. The difference between guys like VJax and Stewart and the 2011 #1 overall is that VJax/Stewart are older (although, in Stewart's case, not by much- he's the same age as C.J. Spiller and almost 2 years younger than Shonn Greene), but they're also more proven (i.e. we *KNOW* they can dominate at the NFL level because, well, they've already dominated at the NFL level).
I would argue that his value is exactly where it should be. Who would you move him for? The vast majority of owners would never trade a tier 1 guy for him, which rules out Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones Drew, and Ray Rice (weird freak outlier trades not withstanding). I assume most owners also would not trade a top level tier 2 player for him, which rules out Jamaal Charles, Rashard Mendenhall, and Arian Foster (although this grouping is at least a little more possible than the previous, particularly Foster). That leaves us looking at lower level tier 2 or tier 3 players for possible trades. Who here provides better value? McFadden? McCoy? Best? Mathews? Gore? Beanie? Bradshaw? Jackson? Moreno? Hillis? DeAngelo?I don't know about you, but personally I value him above all of these guys except McFadden (and even there I am 50/50). From a talent standpoint, Stewart blows them all away...and it's not particularly close. Most probably will prefer McCoy at the moment, but I'm not the biggest McCoy fan and think Stewart is clearly a better player. Gore seems like a no brainer, but age is beginning to creep in as a factor. Mathews and Best have proven NOTHING. Beanie hasn't been able to fully overcome Tim Hightower. Jackson has age. Moreno has been underwhelming at best. Hillis is very tough to gauge from a true talent standpoint and also has longevity worries. DeAngelo has age concerns. Stewart has far better physical tools then all of them (he really is essentially the prototypical NFL RB in terms of skillset and body composition), he has proven that he can be a dominant force when given a feature back workload (the last 1/3 of last season), and is still very young. I think that if a Stewart owner traded him for any of these guys outside of McFadden, they would end up sincerely regretting the trade. I argued earlier in the thread that present production is more valuable than future production in the sense that present production is far more certain, but the players need to be similiarly skilled or have similiar floors/ceilings for that to play a factor. I view Stewart as a significant floor/ceiling increase over the vast majority of that last group of players.It definitely can be frustrating to have to sit on him for so long and wait for his production, but it doesn't change his value. In my opinion valuing him at or near the top of that last group is exactly where he belongs, as he is as valuable or more valuable than all of them.
What about his knees though?Anybody else wanna post theirTake wells, much more potential to be a featured back. I see too much of a reggie bush role for spiller.I'd like to get some opinions on Beanie Wells' prospects for the future.I was offered Beanie straight up for CJ Spiller in a dynasty league and I really don't know whether I should make that deal or not.... CJ clearly has been a disappointment, but Beanie can't seem to stay healthy.Appreciate your feedback!
, SSOG, F&L? TIA.
So you are telling me when you drafted him 3 years ago you expect minimal value for his first 3 years in the league?you are also telling me that after his nice end to the 2009 season you expected minimal value this season? Now if Deangelo is moved he might do ok this coming season, but who knows he has shown a tendency to get nicked up alot (sure he didnt miss a game until last week in his career but there always seems to be lingering achilles/foot injuries in 2009) Now while his potential might be through the roof and greater than alot of people, he just isnt my kind of player.RBs have a relative short life span in the NFL anyway, he has burned 3 years already.
I can't speak to the rest, but as it pertains to the bold, I certainly was expecting minimal contributions from him this year. I understood he was still a clear 2nd fiddle to DeAngelo Williams, expected the Panthers to be bad (although maybe not this bad), and knew the vast majority of Stewart's value resided in future years beyond this one.Perhaps I did not expect him to be performing quite this poorly, but I certainly wasn't viewing him as anything more than a flex option heading into the season.
True. But what is the point of waiting, when you can get a top 5-10 dynasty back for him right now? He is not top 5-10 right now, that is his potential. I would settle something more proven, less promising, to a degree, like a McCoy or Bradshaw. Maybe proven isn't the best word. I guess I am refering to current procution.
