This was from the Cecil Shorts thread, but I thought it would be better here and would avoid hijacking the Shorts discussion...
'EBF said:
Just drives home the #1 lesson of this FF season for me, which is that TIMING is everything. By the time I was trying to trade for Shorts, he had already shown too much to come cheap. And now a few weeks later he would probably command even more value, to the point of being almost untouchable.
I missed out on Victor Cruz in a bunch of leagues last year because I dropped him after the preseason and then didn't find room for him when he made the active roster and had his big two TD 'fluke' game in Week 3. I think the only way around this is to value guys who have a chance
right now over guys you think may actually be better players. I'm not talking about top prospects, just the end of roster guys.
For example, Fasano was limping into Week 12 yesterday and Clay is someone I've been curious about since the end of last year. There are guys on my rosters I like better as prospects, but I still found room for Clay and vacuumed him up before kickoff where I didn't already own him. Either he does well with the bigger opportunity or you can drop him again for someone else with a chance to shine in an upcoming week. It's a short-term decision and doesn't tie up the roster spot for very long if they miss. You'll still miss way more than you'll hit obviously, but I think being flexible about player valuations with a bias for the current week improves your odds.
Kind of repeating myself here, but what I've really realized is that the only good time to buy a player is before he starts producing. If you think a guy like Kendall Hunter or Michael Floyd is going to be good down the road, you need to move for him ASAP because the minute he puts together two good games in a row his value will skyrocket and his owners will not sell. Kaepernick is a great example. You probably could've gotten him for a 2nd-3rd round rookie in some leagues two weeks ago. Now an owner might ask you for a top 5 pick. I think one of the best strategies is to identify prospects you really like and then "overpay" to get them based on market value, knowing that their actual value is still a lot higher. Part of this is developing strong opinions of players when they are draft prospects. The other part is being the first to act when an unknown player shows good potential. Once again Kaepernick is a good example. If you think he's going to be a star, buy him right now. If you're right, you will never get a lower price. With a guy like Shorts or Cruz, you still could've gotten a good deal on them if you came calling with something like a late 1st round or even a 2nd round rookie pick after their first big game or two. A couple weeks later they were untouchable.
Many of my best picks and acquisitions in my dynasty leagues have come when I've ignored consensus value and drafted a player based on where I rated him, not where he "should" have gone. That means taking Calvin Johnson in the 2nd round of a startup when he was a rookie. That means taking Demaryius Thomas in the 3rd round of a startup when he was a rookie. If you think a guy is a star, draft him accordingly. A few years back I did a startup when Trent Richardson was just entering his sophomore season. I was already a huge fan. I thought he was a future star, but I didn't want to take him until the 6th round. He went a round earlier and I had to settle for a vastly inferior option. Stupid. If anything, you need to reach for guys like this when you find them.
The trick is deciding who's legit. I picked up Shorts in one league after his week one game only to drop him the next week when he put up a goose egg. I cut Victor Cruz last year in two leagues right before the season based on some things I read about him strictly being a slot receiver and looking unlikely to have a starting role. Woops. I feel like I am usually pretty good at gauging the true worth of draft prospects, but sometimes it can be really hard to decide when to hold and when to cut loose with veterans and less familiar prospects. In the league where I dropped Cruz, I kept Eddie Royal all last season. So yeah...