Dynasty stuff (2 Viewers)

[Mr.Pack]

I really wish there was a tool for this time of year to help with trades that you want to look at involving studs this year for potential keepers next year. I just can’t find anything. Mostly for teams that are out of the playoffs and looking to next year.
Thanks,
@Joe Bryant @Clayton Gray

 

[Birdie048]

Keep Trade Cut is an option.

 

[Mr.Pack]

Ok not really dynasty I guess, mostly keepers for a year or two. Example: for the first time in a long time I’m outside looking in.
I have Breece Hall who I cannot keep again next year. Looking to trade him to a contender for maybe someone like Rome Odunze.
I’m looking for a tool to help chart of that’s a decent move for next year. If that makes sense

 

[Mr.Pack]

Keep Trade Cut is an option.

Looked at this. I know this is a bad trade. This doesn’t take into account that I cannot keep Hall next year.

 

[eighsse2]

Ok not really dynasty I guess, mostly keepers for a year or two. Example: for the first time in a long time I’m outside looking in.
I have Breece Hall who I cannot keep again next year. Looking to trade him to a contender for maybe someone like Rome Odunze.
I’m looking for a tool to help chart of that’s a decent move for next year. If that makes sense

When you say outside looking in, (1) do you mean you are eliminated? And (2) when you say can't keep Hall next year, do you mean you can't claim his as a keeper this coming offseason, or you can, but not the following offseason? That is, after this season is over, he is gone, right?

If those are both true, then, getting anything is a win. But, of course, you want to get the fair price, not just any win. And yeah, it is a bit tough to find a tool to estimate something so specific.

(3) Can the guy to whom you trade him also not keep him? Or can he keep him since he would be a new owner? Not sure how that works. But that would definitely play a critical part in finding the fair price.

 

[Mr.Pack]

@eighsse2
Thanks for your reply.
1- I’m pretty much eliminated from the Playoffs. I could sneak in if I score like a madman these last three weeks.
2- Hall was my keeper this year thus I cannot keep him next year, no one else can either. He will go back into the pool where his cycle starts all over.
3- No owner can keep him next year, he will be a rental for the rest of this season.

 

[eighsse2]

@eighsse2
Thanks for your reply.
1- I’m pretty much eliminated from the Playoffs. I could sneak in if I score like a madman these last three weeks.
2- Hall was my keeper this year thus I cannot keep him next year, no one else can either. He will go back into the pool where his cycle starts all over.
3- No owner can keep him next year, he will be a rental for the rest of this season.

I guess I'd say he should have a pretty good price tag, though it makes for kind of funny dynamics. Suppose somebody is a lock for the playoffs but hurting bad for the last RB in his lineup. In theory, having Hall for the playoffs is worth a pretty penny to him. However, he also knows that Hall is worth almost 0 to you personally. "He's worthless to you, why should I give you anything more than [some minimal asset]?"Now if there are multiple teams that could really use Hall, you could let them all know he's available and effectively say "start the bidding!" Sometimes people are annoyed if you ask them to make an offer, rather than make an offer yourself. Oh well. If they want Hall, they can make offers, and hopefully the competition would yield a maximum offer.

But still, yeah, personally, I wouldn't know how to put an actual fair price on him, or find a tool for it.

 

[Joe Bryant]

I really wish there was a tool for this time of year to help with trades that you want to look at involving studs this year for potential keepers next year. I just can’t find anything. Mostly for teams that are out of the playoffs and looking to next year.
Thanks,
@Joe Bryant @Clayton Gray

Hi. @Mr.Pack Lots of folks love the Dynasty Trade Value Chart for this https://www.footballguys.com/article/2024-dynasty-trade-value-chart-november

 

[Jppaul]

dynasty trades are pretty simple...

if you're already in the playoffs, you do whatever you can to maximize success

if you're mediocre or bad, you trade, you rebuild... mediocre begets mediocre

some of my leaguemates just can't get this. They're not going to make the playoffs, but think that older studs still hold a lot of value and keep these older players into next season instead of getting half value. Then those players under-perform due to age and that team still sucks

 

[Adam Harstad]

In a keeper league, if you're eliminated, then any player you cannot keep is worth literally nothing to you, and it is a positive-value move to trade them for anything that isn't worth literally nothing to you. If the best you can get for Breece Hall is a conditional pick-swap in the 22nd-round (or whatever the last round in your draft is), then trading Hall for a future pick swap makes your team better in expectation. That's a +EV move for you and you "should" make it.

The relevant question isn't "what is Breece Hall worth". He's worth literally zero. The relevant question is "what is the absolute most I can get for him".

Of course, a "Hall-for-pennies" trade will probably make your leaguemates very mad. The five playoff teams who didn't get Breece Hall for virtually nothing are going to be quite upset that one of their competitors got a huge upgrade at no cost. The solution here is for them to offer you more than a 22nd-round draft pick for him. If they don't want their competitor to get Breece for nothing, they should offer more than nothing. If they're unwilling to offer more than nothing, then they lose the right to complain about someone else offering nothing. It's not your job to maximize their championship odds, it's only your job to maximize *your own* championship odds.

Now, this is the sort of obviously correct move that might not be worth the heat. Trading Breece for whatever you can get is indisputably the right move for your team, but you might very reasonably decide it's not worth upsetting league dynamics for such a pathetic payoff. That's fine-- I wouldn't do it, either. "Not having to listen to my leaguemates yell at me" is worth more to me than a slightly better last-round pick.

But if I knew my league well enough and knew it wouldn't ignite a firestorm, I'd be pretty up-front-- "I'm not making the playoffs and I can't keep Breece Hall, so his value to me is literally zero. As a result, I will trade him for something whose value to me is more than literally zero, and my team will be better as a result. I encourage everyone to make an offer and I'll go with whatever offer is best for my team-- because my concern is making my own team better. If anyone is upset that I let him go for too little, please remember that you are free to offer more. If you don't offer more, then you implicitly agree he wasn't worth more, and therefore it shouldn't be surprising that he didn't fetch more." Most of my leagues aren't the sort of leagues where this would fly-- we're mostly just old friends playing for fun. But in super competitive leagues, this sort of thing should be seen as above-board.

(If your league doesn't allow trading future picks, trading for players is the same basic idea. Anyone you get who improves your keepers-- no matter how marginally-- is worth more to you than Hall, who has no value to you at all.)

Again, the question of what's the optimal play (getting absolutely anything at all) is separate from the question of what's the "right" play-- you do need to keep in mind league dynamics. It's not worth pissing everyone off for pennies.

 

[ratbast]

In a keeper league, if you're eliminated, then any player you cannot keep is worth literally nothing to you, and it is a positive-value move to trade them for anything that isn't worth literally nothing to you. If the best you can get for Breece Hall is a conditional pick-swap in the 22nd-round (or whatever the last round in your draft is), then trading Hall for a future pick swap makes your team better in expectation. That's a +EV move for you and you "should" make it.

The relevant question isn't "what is Breece Hall worth". He's worth literally zero. The relevant question is "what is the absolute most I can get for him".

Of course, a "Hall-for-pennies" trade will probably make your leaguemates very mad. The five playoff teams who didn't get Breece Hall for virtually nothing are going to be quite upset that one of their competitors got a huge upgrade at no cost. The solution here is for them to offer you more than a 22nd-round draft pick for him. If they don't want their competitor to get Breece for nothing, they should offer more than nothing. If they're unwilling to offer more than nothing, then they lose the right to complain about someone else offering nothing. It's not your job to maximize their championship odds, it's only your job to maximize *your own* championship odds.

Now, this is the sort of obviously correct move that might not be worth the heat. Trading Breece for whatever you can get is indisputably the right move for your team, but you might very reasonably decide it's not worth upsetting league dynamics for such a pathetic payoff. That's fine-- I wouldn't do it, either. "Not having to listen to my leaguemates yell at me" is worth more to me than a slightly better last-round pick.

But if I knew my league well enough and knew it wouldn't ignite a firestorm, I'd be pretty up-front-- "I'm not making the playoffs and I can't keep Breece Hall, so his value to me is literally zero. As a result, I will trade him for something whose value to me is more than literally zero, and my team will be better as a result. I encourage everyone to make an offer and I'll go with whatever offer is best for my team-- because my concern is making my own team better. If anyone is upset that I let him go for too little, please remember that you are free to offer more. If you don't offer more, then you implicitly agree he wasn't worth more, and therefore it shouldn't be surprising that he didn't fetch more." Most of my leagues aren't the sort of leagues where this would fly-- we're mostly just old friends playing for fun. But in super competitive leagues, this sort of thing should be seen as above-board.

(If your league doesn't allow trading future picks, trading for players is the same basic idea. Anyone you get who improves your keepers-- no matter how marginally-- is worth more to you than Hall, who has no value to you at all.)

Again, the question of what's the optimal play (getting absolutely anything at all) is separate from the question of what's the "right" play-- you do need to keep in mind league dynamics. It's not worth pissing everyone off for pennies.

Can the other owner keep him? If so, that changes the discussion.
A guy like him should be a commodity to a contender, even on the Jets. Put him out to bid/trading block. Or reach out to almost every playoff team. Bidding war is good here.

 

[eighsse2]

Can the other owner keep him?

Hall was my keeper this year thus I cannot keep him next year, no one else can either.

 

[ratbast]

Can the other owner keep him?

Hall was my keeper this year thus I cannot keep him next year, no one else can either.

Put him on trading block. Highest bidder.

 

[Mr.Pack]

In a keeper league, if you're eliminated, then any player you cannot keep is worth literally nothing to you, and it is a positive-value move to trade them for anything that isn't worth literally nothing to you. If the best you can get for Breece Hall is a conditional pick-swap in the 22nd-round (or whatever the last round in your draft is), then trading Hall for a future pick swap makes your team better in expectation. That's a +EV move for you and you "should" make it.

The relevant question isn't "what is Breece Hall worth". He's worth literally zero. The relevant question is "what is the absolute most I can get for him".

Of course, a "Hall-for-pennies" trade will probably make your leaguemates very mad. The five playoff teams who didn't get Breece Hall for virtually nothing are going to be quite upset that one of their competitors got a huge upgrade at no cost. The solution here is for them to offer you more than a 22nd-round draft pick for him. If they don't want their competitor to get Breece for nothing, they should offer more than nothing. If they're unwilling to offer more than nothing, then they lose the right to complain about someone else offering nothing. It's not your job to maximize their championship odds, it's only your job to maximize *your own* championship odds.

Now, this is the sort of obviously correct move that might not be worth the heat. Trading Breece for whatever you can get is indisputably the right move for your team, but you might very reasonably decide it's not worth upsetting league dynamics for such a pathetic payoff. That's fine-- I wouldn't do it, either. "Not having to listen to my leaguemates yell at me" is worth more to me than a slightly better last-round pick.

But if I knew my league well enough and knew it wouldn't ignite a firestorm, I'd be pretty up-front-- "I'm not making the playoffs and I can't keep Breece Hall, so his value to me is literally zero. As a result, I will trade him for something whose value to me is more than literally zero, and my team will be better as a result. I encourage everyone to make an offer and I'll go with whatever offer is best for my team-- because my concern is making my own team better. If anyone is upset that I let him go for too little, please remember that you are free to offer more. If you don't offer more, then you implicitly agree he wasn't worth more, and therefore it shouldn't be surprising that he didn't fetch more." Most of my leagues aren't the sort of leagues where this would fly-- we're mostly just old friends playing for fun. But in super competitive leagues, this sort of thing should be seen as above-board.

(If your league doesn't allow trading future picks, trading for players is the same basic idea. Anyone you get who improves your keepers-- no matter how marginally-- is worth more to you than Hall, who has no value to you at all.)

Again, the question of what's the optimal play (getting absolutely anything at all) is separate from the question of what's the "right" play-- you do need to keep in mind league dynamics. It's not worth pissing everyone off for pennies.

Thank you for your response. It’s an auction league so future draft picks don’t come into play. I agree though 100% with you’re premise though and that’s where in at right now.

 

[Mr.Pack]

I’m close to landing Odunze who would be a definite keeper option for me for next year.

 

[MAC_32]

dynasty trades are pretty simple...

if you're already in the playoffs, you do whatever you can to maximize success

Agree with the rest, but not this. Over paying for marginal gains is how you unnecessarily shrink your window.

 

[Jppaul]

dynasty trades are pretty simple...

if you're already in the playoffs, you do whatever you can to maximize success

Agree with the rest, but not this. Over paying for marginal gains is how you unnecessarily shrink your window.

And yet, that's how I've had great success

 

[MAC_32]

dynasty trades are pretty simple...

if you're already in the playoffs, you do whatever you can to maximize success

Agree with the rest, but not this. Over paying for marginal gains is how you unnecessarily shrink your window.

And yet, that's how I've had great success

Different strokes for different folks, many different ways to win, I try to compete both now and later.

 

[Mr.Pack]

I really wish there was a tool for this time of year to help with trades that you want to look at involving studs this year for potential keepers next year. I just can’t find anything. Mostly for teams that are out of the playoffs and looking to next year.
Thanks,
@Joe Bryant @Clayton Gray

Hi. @Mr.Pack Lots of folks love the Dynasty Trade Value Chart for this https://www.footballguys.com/article/2024-dynasty-trade-value-chart-november

Thanks Joe, this is a really nice feature. I never knew about it. Happy Thanksgiving!