[DYNASTY] The Buy / Sell List (2 Viewers)

[EBF]

Bored and haven't made a topic in a while. Thought I'd post some players that I'd be looking to buy or sell going into the season.

BUYING

QB Matt Schaub, Texans - IMO Schaub is the most underrated QB in the NFL. People don't look at him as an elite passer, when in fact his statistics from the past several years indicate that he's one of the best in the league. A low number of attempts will likely prevent him from becoming an elite FF option, but he's a good target as a backup or cheap starter.

QB Philip Rivers, Chargers - Seems like the cheapest of the elite FF QBs after slumping through a sub-par year. He's a solid starter and he's falling quite far in drafts. If you don't have a Brees/Newton/Rodgers type of player on your roster, you might want to see about trading for Rivers.

RB Shonn Greene, Jets - This one comes with a pretty big asterisk. Greene is not a special talent and will never be an elite player for your FF team. He's also not particularly young by RB standards. Having said that, I still like him as a short-term acquisition. Even though he is a mediocre starter by NFL standards, I still think he's pretty clearly the best RB on the roster and thus likely to give you at least one year of serviceable RB2 production. If you can talk someone into selling him for something really cheap, like a second round pick or a late first rounder, I would at least consider it.

RB Ben Tate, Texans

RB CJ Spiller, Bills

RB Jahvid Best, Lions

RB JacQuizz Rodgers, Falcons

RB Robert Turbin, Seahawks

RB Jonathan Dwyer, Steelers - A grab bag of cheap-ish RBs who all conceivably have starting potential in the NFL. Outlook and price drops as you move down this list, but I genuinely believe that any one of these guys could surprise with a top 15 season in the next few years. Given how hard it is to acquire an elite RB, your best bet might be picking one or two favorites from this group and trying to get them for low prices.

RB Jonathan Stewart, Carolina - It has to happen eventually, right?

WR Kendall Wright, Titans - It seems like every year there's a high quality first round WR who slips further in drafts than he should. Last year it was Jon Baldwin. This year it's Wright. I have some concerns about his poor combine numbers, but if I've learned anything from previous workout flops like LeSean McCoy and Frank Gore, it's that on-field performance is ultimately the most important variable. Wright might not be fast on a track, but he sure looks the part on the field. I think he's the next Santonio Holmes and I would look to snag him if he's available for the price of a late first round rookie pick.

WR TJ Graham, Bills

WR DeVier Posey, Texans - Two cheap rookie receivers who both have starting potential and are available for next to nothing. I particularly like Graham, simply because he has elite speed and his price tag is so low. I wouldn't get my hopes up too high for either of these guys, but in terms of cost-per-upside, they seem like good acquisitions.

WR Torrey Smith, Ravens - I wasn't really a fan of his game coming out of college, but he was a highly-regarded prospect with freakish workout numbers and he had a really good rookie year. I still wonder if he isn't a one-trick pony, but considering all the things working in his favor and the fact that he's still relatively cheap in some league, he's a guy I would consider targeting.

WR Eddie Royal, Chargers - As someone who's always had a soft spot for Royal and a lack of faith in Robert Meachem, I'm inclined to believe the hype coming out of San Diego about Royal looking like a steal. With Jackson out of town and Gates approaching his sell-on date, Royal should have one last chance to prove that his rookie year wasn't a fluke.

WR Jon Baldwin, Chiefs - I felt he was underrated as a rookie, considering that he was a first round pick with prototypical #1 size and athletic ability. His name got smeared a bit after he got into a training camp fight with Thomas Jones, but I felt people overreacted to that incident and this doesn't strike me as a guy who has severe character/work ethic issues. Baldwin showed enough flashes as a rookie to warrant optimism and is a prime breakout candidate this year or the next.

TE Martellus Bennett, Giants - I've been guilty of overrating Bennett's talent in the past. I'm not sure he really has the explosiveness to be an elite pro TE, but he could still be a solid starter and he should finally have that opportunity in New York.

SELLING

All Quarterbacks - I'm joking really. But last year saw a crazy number of QBs put up huge PPG stats. Sign of things to come, or one year fluke that's destined to regress to the mean? Might be a little bit of both. Having an elite QB is obviously a nice advantage, but I don't really expect guys like Brady/Brees/Newton/Stafford to consistently be this far ahead of the pack on a year-to-year basis.

RB Arian Foster, Texans - If all you care about is production, then Foster might be worth what people are paying, but if you are also concerned with roster flexibility and future trade value then I think you should look elsewhere in the top 10 of dynasty startups. My reasoning is pretty simple. Once RBs turn 28 years old, they become really hard to move for fair value. Age might be overvalued in FF, but in terms of trades perceived value is as important as actual value. And since so many dynasty owners are youth-obsessed, I think Foster's trade value will only drop from here on out. McCoy and Rice are younger, and offer similar short-term potential. Richardson is the superior talent (IMO) and significantly younger. If I could get one of those guys or an elite young WR for Foster (in a PPR), I would pull the trigger.

RB Matt Forte, Bears - Similar story to Foster. I don't doubt his ability to put up difference-maker ppg numbers in the short term, so if that's all you're looking for then he's a fine choice. However, I think the trade value drop is coming soon.

RB DeMarco Murray, Cowboys - Murray really surprised me last year with his impressive rookie season. I clearly underestimated his talent. However, I'd still be looking to cash in if I had him on any of my rosters. If you've had him since last year, there's a good chance that his value has already jumped way above whatever you paid to acquire him. Since I still don't have total faith in his talent and since his durability looks like a major red flag, I'd be looking to move him.

WR Wes Welker, Patriots - 31 years old coming off an absolutely monster season. There are still people who (undestandably) rank him as an elite dynasty WR, but perception will quickly change if he shows even the slightest signs of slowing down. As any Andre Johnson owner can tell you, it's really hard to get fair value for a 31 year old WR. It's even harder for one who's 32...33...etc. I just see his value dropping sharply over the next few years.

TE Rob Gronkowski, Patriots - This guy was one of the truly elite performers in the NFL last year and he's still extremely young, so I fully understand if people are sky high on his future. I just have a totally unsubstantiated feeling that his value has peaked and that he's unlikely to match these ridiculous numbers ever again. I'd say the same thing about Jimmy Graham, but I have a little more faith in his long term ability.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

without even looking I knew Forte was on your sell list. Time to let it go.

Otherwise good effort, but I think Meachem>>Royal for SD

 

[Bronx Bomber]

Just asked this on the Audible. Don't know if this thread was here or not already.

Percy Harvin and Demaryius Thomas. Two young guys that have high value right now but so is their upside. We still haven't seen what they are fully capable yet due to lack of playing time for Harvin and injuries/QB play for Thomas. I own both and have turned down some good offers so I'm leaning toward Holding because I don't want to miss out on the upside (is this flawed thinking or just personal preference?) If were talking about treating players as a commodity than selling would probably be the way to go since value is high. I

 

[chickensoup]

Buying:

QB:

Josh Freeman. The team quite frankly fell apart last year and he had no true number 1 target on the team. His completion % was actually pretty good last year and I think he can get better. Has decent legs for a QB of his size and going to more of a running team should help his TD/Int ratio. I think he's the perfect backup if you are a Vick owner. He's also only 24.

RB:

Kendall Hunter: they signed Jacobs and drafted James but I see their offseason as more of a shotgunning "talent" more than anything else (i.e Moss, Manningham, Jacobs). Hunter is at least a decent receiver out of the backfield (16 for 195 with 26 targets). Gore is up there in age and I think hunter is going to take over as the normal 3 down back eventually.

LeGarrette Blount: another "problem child" who will possibly be on another team next year. I think the reports of Martin becoming the lead back this year are overblown personally and I think this year is more of a timeshare RBBC (45/55 or 40/60 split). If he leaves for greener pastures he could again be the lead back on a team only giving up 3rd down duties to a better receiver.

WR:

Stevie Johnson: I picked him as my WR3 in a startup this year, which is insane to me. he has top 10-15 potential and is the WR1 on a team that's not terrible. I've seen a lot of younger guys go ahead of him that are completely unproven. It's not like he's 30, he's only 26.

Sells:

I hate guys that are always in trouble so i always recommend selling guys like Britt, and Marshall if you can get good value from them but as far as who i would sell with high value right now:

D. Thomas/Eric Decker: value is tied to Payton Manning. long term that is not a good thing. I can see holding them and selling them if they are good options after this year but if they don't perform as advertised this may be their peak value.

Greg Little: The hype train has hit a new high. I've been offered Greg Little and a 3rd round pick for Stevie Johnson already this year. He could be good, but he is likely bad IMO. His value may never be higher than it is right now before preseason starts and people see him for what he is, a middling WR with bad hands on a run first team with a bad QB.

Torrey Smith: can put up good numbers. But also puts up some stinkers as well. if his pricetag was a WR4, he is perfect. But i dont see him as anything more than a WR3 maybe and I'll grab consistant guys with better QBs than Flacco as a WR3 and get upside guys later.

 

[Instinctive]

Here's the thing EBF:

I agree with points on Gronkowski that he probably never breaks the records he set last year. But that doesn't mean he's a sell. He's easily top 3, he's incredibly young, and it's not like he's a one year wonder - his rate stats from his rookie season are in line with his second year.

I feel like you can't sell high enough to replace all that stud production in your lineup, potentially for the next decade. Sure, it's possible that you get a decent package. But when LT turned 26 like Foster, and he was coming off of top RB seasons, were you saying he was a sell then too? Because he still won people titles for two more seasons of incredible production. No way you sold high enough to have been worth that. Foster and Gronk are similar there.

 

[Dragon1952]

RB Arian Foster, Texans - If all you care about is production, then Foster might be worth what people are paying, but if you are also concerned with roster flexibility and future trade value then I think you should look elsewhere in the top 10 of dynasty startups. My reasoning is pretty simple. Once RBs turn 28 years old, they become really hard to move for fair value. Age might be overvalued in FF, but in terms of trades perceived value is as important as actual value. And since so many dynasty owners are youth-obsessed, I think Foster's trade value will only drop from here on out. McCoy and Rice are younger, and offer similar short-term potential. Richardson is the superior talent (IMO) and significantly younger. If I could get one of those guys or an elite young WR for Foster (in a PPR), I would pull the trigger.

Foster will be just barely 26 when the season starts and he's only got 2 years wear and tear. He's just 6 months older than Rice and has 300 less carries and around 400 less hits. Foster could easily have 3 years of elite production left. I think it's a little early to consider selling him high.

 

[Carl Eller's Dead Liver]

Some not mentioned:

Buy:

Randall Cobb - will be every down player starting in 2013, so buy now while owners get impatient. Top 10-15 coming soon.

Rashad Jennings - might be difficult now with MJD hold out, but is URFA in 2013. Will get a starting gig next season. Averaged 5.5 yards

per carry and nearly 10 yards per reception in 2010

Kyle Rudolph - underrated athlete with massive size, good speed + great hands, young QB who's his best friend, Shiancoe gone. Vikings will

use him as main possession receiving option starting 2012.

Jonathan Stewart - I expect 2012 to be the last year for DWill in Carolina. Buy Stewart now. He will be ranked top 10 this time next year.

Sell:

Peyton Manning - obvious sell high with all the hype going on. 37 yo, 1.5 years out of football, new team, new weapons, neck is a ?.

Darren Sproles - last year was his career year. I'd feel good with him as my RB2, but not RB1 even in PPR. Ingram will be used more

Marques Colston - his knees are much older than your average 29 year old's. I think he starts to show signs of regression in 2013 and perhaps as early as this season.

 

[ratbast]

Of course you sell Gronk, 'cause his value is at its highest, or you solidify your lineup with the top TE for years to come.

Either way, whomever gets Gronk's points is going to be happy. His floor is so darn high!

 

[ratbast]

Sell:

Peyton Manning - obvious sell high with all the hype going on. 37 yo, 1.5 years out of football, new team, new weapons, neck is a ?.

Darren Sproles - last year was his career year. I'd feel good with him as my RB2, but not RB1 even in PPR. Ingram will be used more

Marques Colston - his knees are much older than your average 29 year old's. I think he starts to show signs of regression in 2013 and perhaps as early as this season.

I think Colston is a year too late for this list but Sproles and Peyton are big time sellers and whomever hasnt sold Peyton in the off season is a fool.

 

[EBF]

Just asked this on the Audible. Don't know if this thread was here or not already. Percy Harvin and Demaryius Thomas. Two young guys that have high value right now but so is their upside. We still haven't seen what they are fully capable yet due to lack of playing time for Harvin and injuries/QB play for Thomas. I own both and have turned down some good offers so I'm leaning toward Holding because I don't want to miss out on the upside (is this flawed thinking or just personal preference?) If were talking about treating players as a commodity than selling would probably be the way to go since value is high. I

Been a big Harvin fan since day one, but I think he might finally be a bit overvalued. I would like to have him on my roster as a WR2/WR3, but if people value him as a WR1 then I think it's probably a stretch. It's tough for me to see him consistently producing up to that level. Thomas is more of a wild card. More likely to be a complete bust, but also probably more likely to be a top 5 guy down the road. I have him on a couple of my teams and while I should probably see what kind of offers I could get for him, I just have this nagging hunch that I might regret moving him. A year with Peyton has to be good for his numbers, right? I will probably hold him.

 

[ItsOnlytheRiver]

Buying:QB: Josh Freeman. The team quite frankly fell apart last year and he had no true number 1 target on the team. His completion % was actually pretty good last year and I think he can get better. Has decent legs for a QB of his size and going to more of a running team should help his TD/Int ratio. I think he's the perfect backup if you are a Vick owner. He's also only 24.RB:Kendall Hunter: they signed Jacobs and drafted James but I see their offseason as more of a shotgunning "talent" more than anything else (i.e Moss, Manningham, Jacobs). Hunter is at least a decent receiver out of the backfield (16 for 195 with 26 targets). Gore is up there in age and I think hunter is going to take over as the normal 3 down back eventually.LeGarrette Blount: another "problem child" who will possibly be on another team next year. I think the reports of Martin becoming the lead back this year are overblown personally and I think this year is more of a timeshare RBBC (45/55 or 40/60 split). If he leaves for greener pastures he could again be the lead back on a team only giving up 3rd down duties to a better receiver.WR:Stevie Johnson: I picked him as my WR3 in a startup this year, which is insane to me. he has top 10-15 potential and is the WR1 on a team that's not terrible. I've seen a lot of younger guys go ahead of him that are completely unproven. It's not like he's 30, he's only 26.Sells:I hate guys that are always in trouble so i always recommend selling guys like Britt, and Marshall if you can get good value from them but as far as who i would sell with high value right now. Thomas/Eric Decker: value is tied to Payton Manning. long term that is not a good thing. I can see holding them and selling them if they are good options after this year but if they don't perform as advertised this may be their peak value.Greg Little: The hype train has hit a new high. I've been offered Greg Little and a 3rd round pick for Stevie Johnson already this year. He could be good, but he is likely bad IMO. His value may never be higher than it is right now before preseason starts and people see him for what he is, a middling WR with bad hands on a run first team with a bad QB.Torrey Smith: can put up good numbers. But also puts up some stinkers as well. if his pricetag was a WR4, he is perfect. But i dont see him as anything more than a WR3 maybe and I'll grab consistant guys with better QBs than Flacco as a WR3 and get upside guys later.

I couldn't disagree more with all of your buys and most of your sells.

 

[EBF]

Here's the thing EBF:I agree with points on Gronkowski that he probably never breaks the records he set last year. But that doesn't mean he's a sell. He's easily top 3, he's incredibly young, and it's not like he's a one year wonder - his rate stats from his rookie season are in line with his second year.I feel like you can't sell high enough to replace all that stud production in your lineup, potentially for the next decade. Sure, it's possible that you get a decent package. But when LT turned 26 like Foster, and he was coming off of top RB seasons, were you saying he was a sell then too? Because he still won people titles for two more seasons of incredible production. No way you sold high enough to have been worth that. Foster and Gronk are similar there.

You are probably right about Gronk, but does any TE really deserve to go that high? I'm not an expert in VBD (don't use it), but I wonder how it would value a player like Tony Gonzalez. Pretty much the best possible career outcome possible for a TE. Elite production for years and years. Yet in all that time, I can scarcely remember Gonzo going in the top 40 of any dynasty drafts. And now we have Graham and Gronk going in the top 15 of a lot of leagues after both posting historic seasons. Just seems like overcompensation.I would love to have either of them on my team, but I don't know that I could pass on an elite QB/RB/WR to make that a reality. Guys like Shockey, Winslow, and Finley crashed pretty hard after being trendy picks for the TE1 spot early in their careers. Obviously Gronk and Graham are in a different class production-wise, but I still feel like there's a pretty big risk of a come-down. I think it applies to any player coming off a monster season.Regarding Foster, just my own personal opinion, but I don't feel he's in the LT/Faulk/Sanders class purely as a talent. I think he's a very good player who benefits from a very friendly system. That doesn't mean he can't continue to do so for several more years, but in the top 10 of a dynasty draft I'm looking for a cornerstone player for the next several years. What scares me about Foster (and to a lesser extent, Rice) is that he's nearing the age when RB trade values begin to drop. So if your team breaks bad initially and misses the playoffs the first year or two, you are probably stuck with an aging back that you can't move for a top player. I'd argue that Trent Richardson, Calvin Johnson, Aaron Rodgers, or AJ Green is more likely to carry elite trade value two years from now.And while I totally acknowledge that short term production is important, my personal experiences with drafting older players in the early rounds has lead me to believe that the "I'll take the points now..." argument is usually the preface to a bad pick.

 

[chickensoup]

Buying:QB: Josh Freeman. The team quite frankly fell apart last year and he had no true number 1 target on the team. His completion % was actually pretty good last year and I think he can get better. Has decent legs for a QB of his size and going to more of a running team should help his TD/Int ratio. I think he's the perfect backup if you are a Vick owner. He's also only 24.RB:Kendall Hunter: they signed Jacobs and drafted James but I see their offseason as more of a shotgunning "talent" more than anything else (i.e Moss, Manningham, Jacobs). Hunter is at least a decent receiver out of the backfield (16 for 195 with 26 targets). Gore is up there in age and I think hunter is going to take over as the normal 3 down back eventually.LeGarrette Blount: another "problem child" who will possibly be on another team next year. I think the reports of Martin becoming the lead back this year are overblown personally and I think this year is more of a timeshare RBBC (45/55 or 40/60 split). If he leaves for greener pastures he could again be the lead back on a team only giving up 3rd down duties to a better receiver.WR:Stevie Johnson: I picked him as my WR3 in a startup this year, which is insane to me. he has top 10-15 potential and is the WR1 on a team that's not terrible. I've seen a lot of younger guys go ahead of him that are completely unproven. It's not like he's 30, he's only 26.Sells:I hate guys that are always in trouble so i always recommend selling guys like Britt, and Marshall if you can get good value from them but as far as who i would sell with high value right now. Thomas/Eric Decker: value is tied to Payton Manning. long term that is not a good thing. I can see holding them and selling them if they are good options after this year but if they don't perform as advertised this may be their peak value.Greg Little: The hype train has hit a new high. I've been offered Greg Little and a 3rd round pick for Stevie Johnson already this year. He could be good, but he is likely bad IMO. His value may never be higher than it is right now before preseason starts and people see him for what he is, a middling WR with bad hands on a run first team with a bad QB.Torrey Smith: can put up good numbers. But also puts up some stinkers as well. if his pricetag was a WR4, he is perfect. But i dont see him as anything more than a WR3 maybe and I'll grab consistant guys with better QBs than Flacco as a WR3 and get upside guys later.

I couldn't disagree more with all of your buys and most of your sells.

Care to actually give a reason or are you just going to leave it at that. You could have saved even more time by posting "no" and left the thread.....

 

[EBF]

without even looking I knew Forte was on your sell list. Time to let it gtherwise good effort, but I think Meachem>>Royal for SD

Readily admit I was wrong about his talent and staying power.Doesn't change the fact that he's a 26 year old RB whose trade value will drop precipitously over the next 2 years. Guys like Frank Gore, Steven Jackson, and DeAngelo Williams were damn near untradeable at 28.Some people don't care as much about exit value as I do. That's fine. For them, Forte is a solid pick. For me, he's a guy to sell/avoid. I'd say the same about Peterson/Chris Johnson/Arian Foster or pretty much any back that age who is still valued as an elite asset in drafts.

 

[Phenix]

TE Rob Gronkowski, Patriots - This guy was one of the truly elite performers in the NFL last year and he's still extremely young, so I fully understand if people are sky high on his future. I just have a totally unsubstantiated feeling that his value has peaked and that he's unlikely to match these ridiculous numbers ever again. I'd say the same thing about Jimmy Graham, but I have a little more faith in his long term ability.

This always bothers me when I read "un-fantasy-education" like this.No doubt he will not duplicate last year... HE BROKE RECORDS THAT STOOD FOR YEARS! Does not mean he is still not the best and will not put up studly fantasy numbers still. Also selling on Gronk makes you look like your out of your mind anyways.Did people sell on Gonzo after his first year of great success? Hell, Finley didnt even sniff what Gronk has done and people wanted to do nothing but... Bump Finley.ETA: Same for your eval on Graham. Especially in Dynasty, both are young and have stud QBs for the next 3 years.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

without even looking I knew Forte was on your sell list. Time to let it gtherwise good effort, but I think Meachem>>Royal for SD

Readily admit I was wrong about his talent and staying power.Doesn't change the fact that he's a 26 year old RB whose trade value will drop precipitously over the next 2 years. Guys like Frank Gore, Steven Jackson, and DeAngelo Williams were damn near untradeable at 28.Some people don't care as much about exit value as I do. That's fine. For them, Forte is a solid pick. For me, he's a guy to sell/avoid. I'd say the same about Peterson/Chris Johnson/Arian Foster or pretty much any back that age who is still valued as an elite asset in drafts.

26 is some magical dump age?

 

[EBF]

TE Rob Gronkowski, Patriots - This guy was one of the truly elite performers in the NFL last year and he's still extremely young, so I fully understand if people are sky high on his future. I just have a totally unsubstantiated feeling that his value has peaked and that he's unlikely to match these ridiculous numbers ever again. I'd say the same thing about Jimmy Graham, but I have a little more faith in his long term ability.

This always bothers me when I read "un-fantasy-education" like this.No doubt he will not duplicate last year... HE BROKE RECORDS THAT STOOD FOR YEARS! Does not mean he is still not the best and will not put up studly fantasy numbers still. Also selling on Gronk makes you look like your out of your mind anyways.Did people sell on Gonzo after his first year? Hell, Finley didnt even sniff what Gronk has done and people wanted to do nothing but... Bump Finley.

Any time you buy a player after a monster season, you are paying a premium. You can't assume that Gronk will follow Gonzo's career path. That's the best-case scenario. Gonzo is the best receiving TE in NFL history and a freak of nature in terms of staying power and longevity. And despite all that, he was not usually considered a top 20-30 overall dynasty player, even in the peak of his career. So unless Gronk is the absolute best TE in the history of the NFL, I find it hard to believe that his value won't drop. It's always a good idea to consider trading a player when they've reached a point where their value can't possibly go up. Doesn't mean you should give him away, but if you can get an elite WR, RB, or QB, I'd definitely think about it. Especially if you're thin at those positions.

 

[EBF]

without even looking I knew Forte was on your sell list. Time to let it gtherwise good effort, but I think Meachem>>Royal for SD

Readily admit I was wrong about his talent and staying power.Doesn't change the fact that he's a 26 year old RB whose trade value will drop precipitously over the next 2 years. Guys like Frank Gore, Steven Jackson, and DeAngelo Williams were damn near untradeable at 28.Some people don't care as much about exit value as I do. That's fine. For them, Forte is a solid pick. For me, he's a guy to sell/avoid. I'd say the same about Peterson/Chris Johnson/Arian Foster or pretty much any back that age who is still valued as an elite asset in drafts.

26 is some magical dump age?

Every age is a dump age for RBs. Those guys get chewed up and spit out faster than any of the other positions in the NFL. Most 26 year old RBs are already 4-5 years into their pro career, and already more than halfway done with their prime. It's definitely a good age to move a RB because he is still perceived as an elite asset, but only a year or two away from being perceived as "old." It's not about talent or ability as much as it's about longevity and the way dynasty owners perceive player values. I'd say that RBs become hard to trade around 27-28, and WRs around 29-30. Doesn't mean it's always wise to sell them, but in many cases it is. As far as a guy like Foster is concerned, I think Trent Richardson is a better player and he has his whole career ahead of him. That's the guy I would be looking to get if I was going to move Foster straight up for another RB.

 

[Instinctive]

TE Rob Gronkowski, Patriots - This guy was one of the truly elite performers in the NFL last year and he's still extremely young, so I fully understand if people are sky high on his future. I just have a totally unsubstantiated feeling that his value has peaked and that he's unlikely to match these ridiculous numbers ever again. I'd say the same thing about Jimmy Graham, but I have a little more faith in his long term ability.

This always bothers me when I read "un-fantasy-education" like this.No doubt he will not duplicate last year... HE BROKE RECORDS THAT STOOD FOR YEARS! Does not mean he is still not the best and will not put up studly fantasy numbers still. Also selling on Gronk makes you look like your out of your mind anyways.Did people sell on Gonzo after his first year? Hell, Finley didnt even sniff what Gronk has done and people wanted to do nothing but... Bump Finley.

Any time you buy a player after a monster season, you are paying a premium. You can't assume that Gronk will follow Gonzo's career path. That's the best-case scenario. Gonzo is the best receiving TE in NFL history and a freak of nature in terms of staying power and longevity. And despite all that, he was not usually considered a top 20-30 overall dynasty player, even in the peak of his career. So unless Gronk is the absolute best TE in the history of the NFL, I find it hard to believe that his value won't drop. It's always a good idea to consider trading a player when they've reached a point where their value can't possibly go up. Doesn't mean you should give him away, but if you can get an elite WR, RB, or QB, I'd definitely think about it. Especially if you're thin at those positions.

Let's be clear for a second: Just because I'm not buying at his price doesn't mean I'm selling. I wouldn't pay for Gronk's season unless I was getting a solid deal...but I sure as hell wouldn't be selling him if I had him.

 

[dickey moe]

TE Rob Gronkowski, Patriots - This guy was one of the truly elite performers in the NFL last year and he's still extremely young, so I fully understand if people are sky high on his future. I just have a totally unsubstantiated feeling that his value has peaked and that he's unlikely to match these ridiculous numbers ever again. I'd say the same thing about Jimmy Graham, but I have a little more faith in his long term ability.

This always bothers me when I read "un-fantasy-education" like this.No doubt he will not duplicate last year... HE BROKE RECORDS THAT STOOD FOR YEARS! Does not mean he is still not the best and will not put up studly fantasy numbers still. Also selling on Gronk makes you look like your out of your mind anyways.Did people sell on Gonzo after his first year? Hell, Finley didnt even sniff what Gronk has done and people wanted to do nothing but... Bump Finley.

Any time you buy a player after a monster season, you are paying a premium. You can't assume that Gronk will follow Gonzo's career path. That's the best-case scenario. Gonzo is the best receiving TE in NFL history and a freak of nature in terms of staying power and longevity. And despite all that, he was not usually considered a top 20-30 overall dynasty player, even in the peak of his career. So unless Gronk is the absolute best TE in the history of the NFL, I find it hard to believe that his value won't drop. It's always a good idea to consider trading a player when they've reached a point where their value can't possibly go up. Doesn't mean you should give him away, but if you can get an elite WR, RB, or QB, I'd definitely think about it. Especially if you're thin at those positions.

Tony G.'s value proved to be his consistency, but he simply didn't have the ceiling that Gronk or Graham have. You overpay for those guys because they are likely to be light-years ahead of anyone else at their position, FF scoring-wise.

 

[ItsOnlytheRiver]

Buying:QB: Josh Freeman. The team quite frankly fell apart last year and he had no true number 1 target on the team. His completion % was actually pretty good last year and I think he can get better. Has decent legs for a QB of his size and going to more of a running team should help his TD/Int ratio. I think he's the perfect backup if you are a Vick owner. He's also only 24.RB:Kendall Hunter: they signed Jacobs and drafted James but I see their offseason as more of a shotgunning "talent" more than anything else (i.e Moss, Manningham, Jacobs). Hunter is at least a decent receiver out of the backfield (16 for 195 with 26 targets). Gore is up there in age and I think hunter is going to take over as the normal 3 down back eventually.LeGarrette Blount: another "problem child" who will possibly be on another team next year. I think the reports of Martin becoming the lead back this year are overblown personally and I think this year is more of a timeshare RBBC (45/55 or 40/60 split). If he leaves for greener pastures he could again be the lead back on a team only giving up 3rd down duties to a better receiver.WR:Stevie Johnson: I picked him as my WR3 in a startup this year, which is insane to me. he has top 10-15 potential and is the WR1 on a team that's not terrible. I've seen a lot of younger guys go ahead of him that are completely unproven. It's not like he's 30, he's only 26.Sells:I hate guys that are always in trouble so i always recommend selling guys like Britt, and Marshall if you can get good value from them but as far as who i would sell with high value right now. Thomas/Eric Decker: value is tied to Payton Manning. long term that is not a good thing. I can see holding them and selling them if they are good options after this year but if they don't perform as advertised this may be their peak value.Greg Little: The hype train has hit a new high. I've been offered Greg Little and a 3rd round pick for Stevie Johnson already this year. He could be good, but he is likely bad IMO. His value may never be higher than it is right now before preseason starts and people see him for what he is, a middling WR with bad hands on a run first team with a bad QB.Torrey Smith: can put up good numbers. But also puts up some stinkers as well. if his pricetag was a WR4, he is perfect. But i dont see him as anything more than a WR3 maybe and I'll grab consistant guys with better QBs than Flacco as a WR3 and get upside guys later.

I couldn't disagree more with all of your buys and most of your sells.

Care to actually give a reason or are you just going to leave it at that. You could have saved even more time by posting "no" and left the thread.....

The reason I didn't expand is because I'm on my phone. But since you insist..Freeman I just don't think is very good. He might be worth more next year than he is now but I don't see the difference being worth enough to mention on a list like this. Kendall Hunter isn't good either and his ceiling is RBBC. Legarette Blount has a checkered history with team mates, reportedly has a bad attitude and is taking on a new coaching staff that just invested a high pick in their RB. Not to mention he's a one dimensional back. Now, you also mention that he will possibly end up somewhere else next season - who cares? He's not special enough to get a starting gig in one of the handful of jobs that will open up. Most back ups that are about to hit free agency aren't, yet you can be certain there are fantasy footballers out there trying to buy them on the cheap. Unfortunately most end up like Michael Bush instead of Michael Turner. Stevie Johnson, I dunno, he's a good player. I don't really think he's some transcendent talent just waiting to bust out or anything. He is what he is, a pretty good ceiling with a somewhat lower floor than I'd prefer. Certainly don't think he's some buy now breakout candidate. The time to sell Britt is past. Might as well hold him and hope he earns his value back like Marsall. So when Peyton Manning retires are the Broncos going to have a doormat throwing the ball? Either you believe in the talents of Thomas and Decker or you don't, and if you don't you're certainly correct about them being a sell now, but if you think they're talented then hinging their value just to Manning is short sighted. Greg Little - I don't know what to think of Little, but I got a good chuckle out of your reasoning here. "Someone tried to get the great Stevie Johnson for him... Whoa!!". Actually I think his value is quite lower than it was a year ago and especially since the Gordon pick. He's young and unpolished. I'd say he's a hold and hope. You seem to be writing off Torrey Smith rather quickly, no? He was a rookie last year and the Ravens used him as a deep threat so yeah he had some stinkers. I could only imagine what he might accomplish if he had Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing him the ball.

 

[Dragon1952]

TE Rob Gronkowski, Patriots - This guy was one of the truly elite performers in the NFL last year and he's still extremely young, so I fully understand if people are sky high on his future. I just have a totally unsubstantiated feeling that his value has peaked and that he's unlikely to match these ridiculous numbers ever again. I'd say the same thing about Jimmy Graham, but I have a little more faith in his long term ability.

This always bothers me when I read "un-fantasy-education" like this.No doubt he will not duplicate last year... HE BROKE RECORDS THAT STOOD FOR YEARS! Does not mean he is still not the best and will not put up studly fantasy numbers still. Also selling on Gronk makes you look like your out of your mind anyways.

Did people sell on Gonzo after his first year? Hell, Finley didnt even sniff what Gronk has done and people wanted to do nothing but... Bump Finley.

Any time you buy a player after a monster season, you are paying a premium. You can't assume that Gronk will follow Gonzo's career path. That's the best-case scenario. Gonzo is the best receiving TE in NFL history and a freak of nature in terms of staying power and longevity. And despite all that, he was not usually considered a top 20-30 overall dynasty player, even in the peak of his career. So unless Gronk is the absolute best TE in the history of the NFL, I find it hard to believe that his value won't drop.

It's always a good idea to consider trading a player when they've reached a point where their value can't possibly go up. Doesn't mean you should give him away, but if you can get an elite WR, RB, or QB, I'd definitely think about it. Especially if you're thin at those positions.

Tony G.'s value proved to be his consistency, but he simply didn't have the ceiling that Gronk or Graham have. You overpay for those guys because they are likely to be light-years ahead of anyone else at their position, FF scoring-wise.

Like better than all but the top 5 QB's, better than all but maybe the top 2-3 RB's and better than all but just a couple WR's also.

 

[Tau837]

I think Meachem>>Royal for SD

Barring injuries, Gates, Mathews, Meachem, Floyd, and Brown will all have more targets than Royal. How much upside can Royal have as the 6th option in the passing game? And he will likely get very few opportunities in the red zone.

 

[EBF]

Norv speaks pretty glowingly about him for a guy who's going to be the 6th option.http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/playerbreakingnews.asp?sport=NFL&id=4853&line=236382&spln=1

Norv Turner said on ESPN's NFL32 last month that Royal is the most impressive player he's coached the past few seasons.

Pure hyperbole? That is a pretty bold statement by Turner. Stands to reason that he'd plan to use Royal.While I fully realize that Royal hasn't done anything in years, I also feel like Meachem is a perennial breakout candidate who has...you know...never broken out. I just think he's a mediocrity. Royal might not be anything more than that either, but at least he's had a productive FF season in the past and at least the coach is raving about him. As for the other guys, Floyd is a solid player, but Brown is unproven. There is definitely opportunity for someone to step up here. In terms of cost for upside, I like Royal.

 

[chickensoup]

Buying:QB: Josh Freeman. The team quite frankly fell apart last year and he had no true number 1 target on the team. His completion % was actually pretty good last year and I think he can get better. Has decent legs for a QB of his size and going to more of a running team should help his TD/Int ratio. I think he's the perfect backup if you are a Vick owner. He's also only 24.RB:Kendall Hunter: they signed Jacobs and drafted James but I see their offseason as more of a shotgunning "talent" more than anything else (i.e Moss, Manningham, Jacobs). Hunter is at least a decent receiver out of the backfield (16 for 195 with 26 targets). Gore is up there in age and I think hunter is going to take over as the normal 3 down back eventually.LeGarrette Blount: another "problem child" who will possibly be on another team next year. I think the reports of Martin becoming the lead back this year are overblown personally and I think this year is more of a timeshare RBBC (45/55 or 40/60 split). If he leaves for greener pastures he could again be the lead back on a team only giving up 3rd down duties to a better receiver.WR:Stevie Johnson: I picked him as my WR3 in a startup this year, which is insane to me. he has top 10-15 potential and is the WR1 on a team that's not terrible. I've seen a lot of younger guys go ahead of him that are completely unproven. It's not like he's 30, he's only 26.Sells:I hate guys that are always in trouble so i always recommend selling guys like Britt, and Marshall if you can get good value from them but as far as who i would sell with high value right now. Thomas/Eric Decker: value is tied to Payton Manning. long term that is not a good thing. I can see holding them and selling them if they are good options after this year but if they don't perform as advertised this may be their peak value.Greg Little: The hype train has hit a new high. I've been offered Greg Little and a 3rd round pick for Stevie Johnson already this year. He could be good, but he is likely bad IMO. His value may never be higher than it is right now before preseason starts and people see him for what he is, a middling WR with bad hands on a run first team with a bad QB.Torrey Smith: can put up good numbers. But also puts up some stinkers as well. if his pricetag was a WR4, he is perfect. But i dont see him as anything more than a WR3 maybe and I'll grab consistant guys with better QBs than Flacco as a WR3 and get upside guys later.

I couldn't disagree more with all of your buys and most of your sells.

Care to actually give a reason or are you just going to leave it at that. You could have saved even more time by posting "no" and left the thread.....

The reason I didn't expand is because I'm on my phone. But since you insist..Freeman I just don't think is very good. He might be worth more next year than he is now but I don't see the difference being worth enough to mention on a list like this. Kendall Hunter isn't good either and his ceiling is RBBC. Legarette Blount has a checkered history with team mates, reportedly has a bad attitude and is taking on a new coaching staff that just invested a high pick in their RB. Not to mention he's a one dimensional back. Now, you also mention that he will possibly end up somewhere else next season - who cares? He's not special enough to get a starting gig in one of the handful of jobs that will open up. Most back ups that are about to hit free agency aren't, yet you can be certain there are fantasy footballers out there trying to buy them on the cheap. Unfortunately most end up like Michael Bush instead of Michael Turner. Stevie Johnson, I dunno, he's a good player. I don't really think he's some transcendent talent just waiting to bust out or anything. He is what he is, a pretty good ceiling with a somewhat lower floor than I'd prefer. Certainly don't think he's some buy now breakout candidate. The time to sell Britt is past. Might as well hold him and hope he earns his value back like Marsall. So when Peyton Manning retires are the Broncos going to have a doormat throwing the ball? Either you believe in the talents of Thomas and Decker or you don't, and if you don't you're certainly correct about them being a sell now, but if you think they're talented then hinging their value just to Manning is short sighted. Greg Little - I don't know what to think of Little, but I got a good chuckle out of your reasoning here. "Someone tried to get the great Stevie Johnson for him... Whoa!!". Actually I think his value is quite lower than it was a year ago and especially since the Gordon pick. He's young and unpolished. I'd say he's a hold and hope. You seem to be writing off Torrey Smith rather quickly, no? He was a rookie last year and the Ravens used him as a deep threat so yeah he had some stinkers. I could only imagine what he might accomplish if he had Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing him the ball.

Blount: people are pencilling in Martin as a sure thing and Blount can be had super super cheap. In the dynasty startup I did this year (granted its IDP so his value is even more depressed) he went in the 23 round where completely unknown commodities are taken and backup IDP guys are taken. While I wouldn't directly compare him to CJ people are willing to give CJ a pass for a bad year and not Blount who played on a terrible team that almost the entire squad quit on. Assuming Martin instantly becomes a bell cow back and Blount is terrible is what makes him a buy low in my eyes. If you want to keep him as a handcuff to an unproven rookie he's probably worth more than his ADP in dynasty IMO. He can be had for almost nothing.Kendall Hunter: I don't know where you're getting the he's bad part. Is he a top 5 potential? I doubt it. But if he gets the carries in the future he can be a RB 2 type who can catch. He is in his second season this year and plays for a team that is a ball control team. Jacobs is on a 1 year contract and James is a rookie. Could he be part of a RBBC in 2 years? Sure. Does anyone know what the 49ers situation will be 2 years from now? Nope. He can be had very very cheap. Cheaper than even Blount who is a board whipping boy. I thought that was the point of the thread.D. Thomas/Decker: doormat? No. Osweiler as of now for a John Fox offense? Yep. To me selling makes sense when you have a guy at max value. Right now could be their max value depending entirely on Mannings health. They could be great with manning. Or a guy coming off 4 neck surgeries isn't the second coming of Jesus and their value is what it iPad when Tebow was tossing the rock. This is why I mentioned them. Depends on the price you can get or when you draft them in a startup.Little: what has he shown anyone besides dropping passes? Physical tools can only take you so far, especially with a rookie QB on a bad team in a bad division to play in on a team that runs a ton. He has upside, but if he fell on his face this year and was WR 50 wound anyone be surprised? I get it, he's a shark pool darling but he is in a bad situation and hasn't even performed well in his opportunities. I don't know why his price tag is so high. People love him though.Just like you said on other guys: I just don't like him. I don't see elite receiver skills so I view him as a devry Henderson without 3 other WR blocking his targets kind of guy. I really don't see a WR 1 on his team if Boldin retires or falls off a cliff.

 

[Xue]

without even looking I knew Forte was on your sell list. Time to let it gtherwise good effort, but I think Meachem>>Royal for SD

Readily admit I was wrong about his talent and staying power.Doesn't change the fact that he's a 26 year old RB whose trade value will drop precipitously over the next 2 years. Guys like Frank Gore, Steven Jackson, and DeAngelo Williams were damn near untradeable at 28.Some people don't care as much about exit value as I do. That's fine. For them, Forte is a solid pick. For me, he's a guy to sell/avoid. I'd say the same about Peterson/Chris Johnson/Arian Foster or pretty much any back that age who is still valued as an elite asset in drafts.

26 is some magical dump age?

Yes.http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/07/16/age-of-decline-rb1/

 

[ItsOnlytheRiver]

Buying:

QB:

Josh Freeman. The team quite frankly fell apart last year and he had no true number 1 target on the team. His completion % was actually pretty good last year and I think he can get better. Has decent legs for a QB of his size and going to more of a running team should help his TD/Int ratio. I think he's the perfect backup if you are a Vick owner. He's also only 24.

RB:

Kendall Hunter: they signed Jacobs and drafted James but I see their offseason as more of a shotgunning "talent" more than anything else (i.e Moss, Manningham, Jacobs). Hunter is at least a decent receiver out of the backfield (16 for 195 with 26 targets). Gore is up there in age and I think hunter is going to take over as the normal 3 down back eventually.

LeGarrette Blount: another "problem child" who will possibly be on another team next year. I think the reports of Martin becoming the lead back this year are overblown personally and I think this year is more of a timeshare RBBC (45/55 or 40/60 split). If he leaves for greener pastures he could again be the lead back on a team only giving up 3rd down duties to a better receiver.

WR:

Stevie Johnson: I picked him as my WR3 in a startup this year, which is insane to me. he has top 10-15 potential and is the WR1 on a team that's not terrible. I've seen a lot of younger guys go ahead of him that are completely unproven. It's not like he's 30, he's only 26.

Sells:

I hate guys that are always in trouble so i always recommend selling guys like Britt, and Marshall if you can get good value from them but as far as who i would sell with high value right now:

D. Thomas/Eric Decker: value is tied to Payton Manning. long term that is not a good thing. I can see holding them and selling them if they are good options after this year but if they don't perform as advertised this may be their peak value.

Greg Little: The hype train has hit a new high. I've been offered Greg Little and a 3rd round pick for Stevie Johnson already this year. He could be good, but he is likely bad IMO. His value may never be higher than it is right now before preseason starts and people see him for what he is, a middling WR with bad hands on a run first team with a bad QB.

Torrey Smith: can put up good numbers. But also puts up some stinkers as well. if his pricetag was a WR4, he is perfect. But i dont see him as anything more than a WR3 maybe and I'll grab consistant guys with better QBs than Flacco as a WR3 and get upside guys later.

I couldn't disagree more with all of your buys and most of your sells.

Care to actually give a reason or are you just going to leave it at that. You could have saved even more time by posting "no" and left the thread.....

The reason I didn't expand is because I'm on my phone. But since you insist..Freeman I just don't think is very good. He might be worth more next year than he is now but I don't see the difference being worth enough to mention on a list like this.

Kendall Hunter isn't good either and his ceiling is RBBC.

Legarette Blount has a checkered history with team mates, reportedly has a bad attitude and is taking on a new coaching staff that just invested a high pick in their RB. Not to mention he's a one dimensional back. Now, you also mention that he will possibly end up somewhere else next season - who cares? He's not special enough to get a starting gig in one of the handful of jobs that will open up. Most back ups that are about to hit free agency aren't, yet you can be certain there are fantasy footballers out there trying to buy them on the cheap. Unfortunately most end up like Michael Bush instead of Michael Turner.

Stevie Johnson, I dunno, he's a good player. I don't really think he's some transcendent talent just waiting to bust out or anything. He is what he is, a pretty good ceiling with a somewhat lower floor than I'd prefer. Certainly don't think he's some buy now breakout candidate.

The time to sell Britt is past. Might as well hold him and hope he earns his value back like Marsall.

So when Peyton Manning retires are the Broncos going to have a doormat throwing the ball? Either you believe in the talents of Thomas and Decker or you don't, and if you don't you're certainly correct about them being a sell now, but if you think they're talented then hinging their value just to Manning is short sighted.

Greg Little - I don't know what to think of Little, but I got a good chuckle out of your reasoning here. "Someone tried to get the great Stevie Johnson for him... Whoa!!". Actually I think his value is quite lower than it was a year ago and especially since the Gordon pick. He's young and unpolished. I'd say he's a hold and hope.

You seem to be writing off Torrey Smith rather quickly, no? He was a rookie last year and the Ravens used him as a deep threat so yeah he had some stinkers. I could only imagine what he might accomplish if he had Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing him the ball.

Blount: people are pencilling in Martin as a sure thing and Blount can be had super super cheap. In the dynasty startup I did this year (granted its IDP so his value is even more depressed) he went in the 23 round where completely unknown commodities are taken and backup IDP guys are taken. While I wouldn't directly compare him to CJ people are willing to give CJ a pass for a bad year and not Blount who played on a terrible team that almost the entire squad quit on. Assuming Martin instantly becomes a bell cow back and Blount is terrible is what makes him a buy low in my eyes. If you want to keep him as a handcuff to an unproven rookie he's probably worth more than his ADP in dynasty IMO. He can be had for almost nothing.Good thing you won't compare him to CJ because that would be a really stupid comparison. The situations are nothing alike other than they had years below their respective expectations. Blount belonged on this list last offseason as a sell. His value may rise above what it is now, but I don't think it will ever be anything more than where he ranks on your bench. Not worth mentioning or pursuing.

Kendall Hunter: I don't know where you're getting the he's bad part. Is he a top 5 potential? I doubt it. But if he gets the carries in the future he can be a RB 2 type who can catch. He is in his second season this year and plays for a team that is a ball control team. Jacobs is on a 1 year contract and James is a rookie. Could he be part of a RBBC in 2 years? Sure. Does anyone know what the 49ers situation will be 2 years from now? Nope. He can be had very very cheap. Cheaper than even Blount who is a board whipping boy. I thought that was the point of the thread.

Great point. Who knows what this situation will be like 2 years from now, and I don't think the odds are in favor of Hunter who only carries 4th round draft pedigree and really did nothing special last season. Like I mentioned with Blount in my previous post, people are always looking for that backup that's going to graduate to starter or sign elsewhere as a starter. It's usually just not a good bet. There are too many talented backs entering the league every year and not enough carries to go around. Already the 49ers spent a 2nd rounder on a different back who is at least going to split carries with the guy. Also, he's not cheaper than Blount. I prefer to spend my valuable roster spots on more sure things unless I'm cuffing Gore or something.

D. Thomas/Decker: doormat? No. Osweiler as of now for a John Fox offense? Yep. To me selling makes sense when you have a guy at max value. Right now could be their max value depending entirely on Mannings health. They could be great with manning. Or a guy coming off 4 neck surgeries isn't the second coming of Jesus and their value is what it iPad when Tebow was tossing the rock. This is why I mentioned them. Depends on the price you can get or when you draft them in a startup.

It's not like their value is through the roof. Thomas had a pretty good bounce back from his injury and proved he's a play maker - with Tim Tebow of all people. So while Peyton is helping his value I think it's, once again, short sighted of you to tie all their value to Manning. Are we already writing off Blackmon who has the worst starting QB in the league? And what's this talk of a John Fox offense? All of the sudden he can't run an offense that produces WR numbers? They are both only 24 and 25. I'd be more inclined to buy - in fact I did buy Thomas this offseason for Britt when Britt was a real sell.

Little: what has he shown anyone besides dropping passes? Physical tools can only take you so far, especially with a rookie QB on a bad team in a bad division to play in on a team that runs a ton. He has upside, but if he fell on his face this year and was WR 50 wound anyone be surprised? I get it, he's a shark pool darling but he is in a bad situation and hasn't even performed well in his opportunities. I don't know why his price tag is so high. People love him though.

Did you just start posting here yesterday? Little is one of the most debated players this offseason around here. Go find his spotlight thread. Like I said, he's kind of a hold and hope. Of course he could fall on his face. Then again, he was very raw last year and still caught a bunch of passes. Perhaps Weedon proves to be better than McCoy and Little improves over his rookie season and you once again have a valuable commodity. I'm not a big believer in selling 2nd year players low a year after you spent a 1st round pick on them.

Just like you said on other guys: I just don't like him. I don't see elite receiver skills so I view him as a devry Henderson without 3 other WR blocking his targets kind of guy. I really don't see a WR 1 on his team if Boldin retires or falls off a cliff.

This would have been a better explanation than the first one you gave. Though, I still disagree with it.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

A semi wierd one, that in some cases is undervalued and others isn't. Tom Brady

In most dynasties there are people very uncomfortable with having so much value put into the QB position, but Brady (at least I think so) is gearing up to be what looks like a record breaking year. If someone who puts a lot of stock in young guys has Brady... do anything you can to get him. he will be a HUGE advantage for you for at least the next two, probably the next 3 years.

 

[identikit]

Norv speaks pretty glowingly about him for a guy who's going to be the 6th option.

http://www.rotoworld...e=236382&spln=1

Norv Turner said on ESPN's NFL32 last month that Royal is the most impressive player he's coached the past few seasons.

Pure hyperbole? That is a pretty bold statement by Turner. Stands to reason that he'd plan to use Royal.While I fully realize that Royal hasn't done anything in years, I also feel like Meachem is a perennial breakout candidate who has...you know...never broken out. I just think he's a mediocrity. Royal might not be anything more than that either, but at least he's had a productive FF season in the past and at least the coach is raving about him. As for the other guys, Floyd is a solid player, but Brown is unproven.

There is definitely opportunity for someone to step up here. In terms of cost for upside, I like Royal.

I'll take Vincent Brown in any dynasty scenario.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Treating all 26 year old RBs the same and selling them as a rule of thumb is a bad idea IMO. Sell Shonne Green? Sell Isaac Redman? Sell James Starks? That makes sense if you can find a trading partner. Those guys aren't very good, won't put up huge VBD for you even if they have good seasons, and will be done by age 27 or 28.

But the elite RBs will continue pumping out VBD until they're 29-31 (or older if you get lucky) and it's really hard to get back what you're losing. Foster is likely to put up 100pts of VBD this year -- that wins you titles now. If you'd traded Gore away after he turned 26 you'd have missed out on RB finishes of 5-20-12, and that understates his per-start value since he missed some games in two of those seasons.

Trading that kind of production away for prospects who will probably NEVER have a season like Foster has done is a losing bet most of the time IMO. Especially when you consider how long it will take to see the prospects blossom. Unless you can get a true upgrade in a relatively straight swap of players who are producing today I think it makes more sense to ride your starters until they drop and obtain prospects where you can without giving up a starter. There are guys available each year that can be had without surrendering current VBD (Gronkowski, Cruz, Stevie Johnson, Garcon, etc).

Nail most of your early first round rookie picks, hit on about half of your mid/late first round rookie picks and find a cheap prospect that pans out as a starter every year or two and you'll always be in the game without giving up top players who are producing today.

 

[Tanner9919]

EBF, thanks for the thread! very useful information!

in regards to Foster, you don't sell him unless you get a lot in return, you're implying we select Richardson over Foster for dynasty purposes, and I disagree with that notion.as others have pointed out Foster is just 26 and has at least 3-4 more years of top 5 production left..that same 3-4 is how long it will take Cleveland's offense to 'come around', they're so far behind the 8-ball right now that it's clearly a long,slow work in progress..for the most part, stud RB's don't come from bad teams...

I agree 100% on Gronkowski...someone mentioned that Gronkowski has upwards of 10 years of highly productive output remaining, but I don't see how that is possible since Brady has ,at best, 2-4 years left..Gronkowski's 2011 #'s were an anomaly, they are not persistent numbers that will repeat year in,year out..that type of production cannot be sustained..I can't believe that some people conveniently disregard the fact that last year's passing stats were WAY up simply because of the shortened training camps ( contract dispute, players v. NFL), i.e., defensive coordinators were behind their offensive counterparts on play-calling,scheming,etc..passing numbers will be down across the board in 2012, Brady, Brees, Stafford,etc..

Stafford - I think he is a sell, not a buy..only once has he completed a full 16 game schedule..I'm just not buying what Stafford is selling, need to see him do it for more than one strike shortened season..bloated stats from a couple of games late in the year, etc..no thanks, I'll let someone else draft him..

interesting comments about Eddie Royal, but I'm inclined to pass on him, seems every year we're mentioning his 'potential' but he never really puts it all together..

Greg Little - someone had to say it..the hype train has gone completely out of control..

buying: Big Ben..has the accuracy and the ability to put together a Warner-like ( Az Cards) season in Pitt..lots of passing, lots of TDs..he had a 'down' year last year but still managed quality fantasy #'s..he should rebound in a big way with Haley as OC..

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Good topic.

In general, I tend to target certain types of guys as buys:

1.) Guys that have recently been arrested. "Character" concerns are totally overblown in dynasty fantasy football IMO. Guys like Kenny Britt, Dez Bryant, and Marshawn Lynch are young and have the physical ability to be NFL and fantasy difference makers. Sure, they appear to be thugs / idiots / criminals / whatever you want to call them. Guess what? It really doesn't matter too much. 4 - 6 games (a pretty good suspension) is a tiny fraction of a 8 or 10 year NFL career. I'll take guys like this all day, fully expecting to be without their services for a chunk of games at some point(s), and enjoying the dominant production the rest of the time.

2.) Injured players with proven elite ability. Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson, Britt again, Darren McFadden, Welker two years ago, guys like Sidney Rice, Brady after his knee, etc. Medical technology has come a long way in the 20 years I've been playing fantasy football, and very few injuries are truly career-ending. I'll take the proven stud talent all day and wait for the player to heal up. Again, one year represents a pretty small fraction of a guys career, and immediately after a big injury, players tend to be traded for pennies on the dollar.

3.) Young highly drafted players who didn't make a big immediate impact. Baldwin and Ingram are the two big ones this year IMO. I'm not totally sold on either one's talent, personally, but the important thing for me is that they were highly drafted by their NFL teams (so they will receive the opportunity) and their value in fantasy is well below where it was a year ago, or should be. Not every rookie is going to come in and light it up right away; that doesn't mean that they won't be good eventually.

4.) Old guys. Pretty self-explanatory. Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, Peyton Manning, Steve Smith, Wes Welker, etc. I worry far more about winning a title now as opposed to exit value in most cases. If I can get solid production for a year or two at a position of need, I'll trade multiple picks or iffy prospects for players like this all day long. There are a ton of owners out there who see an aging player on their roster and think "well, if I don't trade him now, I'll never be able to." A 23 year old scrub is not worth more than a 30+ year old stud just because he's younger.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

TE Rob Gronkowski, Patriots - This guy was one of the truly elite performers in the NFL last year and he's still extremely young, so I fully understand if people are sky high on his future. I just have a totally unsubstantiated feeling that his value has peaked and that he's unlikely to match these ridiculous numbers ever again. I'd say the same thing about Jimmy Graham, but I have a little more faith in his long term ability.

I agree that he'll never sniff 18 TDs again. That's a ridiculous number and almost certainly unsustainable. Normally I'm all about selling a guy like that to anyone willing to pay for numbers that are hugely unlikely to be repeated (Newton's rushing TDs fall under this category also). That said, Gronk can fall off a TON, though, and still be a top-10 or 12 player in any given year. 90 - 1100 - 10 would put him in the ballpark of 100 points ahead of TE12, which would put him in the 10-15 range overall (PPR). Antonio Gates had a nice window where he would have been worth a first round startup pick, and I think Gronk and Graham are in that class of athlete.

 

[meyerj31]

I'm not understanding the hate on Harvin. He's 24, finished last year as 8th WR in total points in PPRs, 11th in PPG. The coaches have explicitly stated he will be used less on returns and integrated more into the offense. The running game will be there even if AP is not (Gerhart is underrated IMO) and he's going to have more than his 120 targets from last year. Let's not forget his absurd catch rate ... 72.5%. The guy is a beast. Only missed 3 games in 3 years so that durability argument is garbage. I cannot believe in my recent dynasty start-up that Andre Johnson went a full 16 spots higher than Harvin.

How is he not easily a WR1 in dynasty? I don't get it.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

RB Arian Foster, Texans - If all you care about is production, then Foster might be worth what people are paying, but if you are also concerned with roster flexibility and future trade value then I think you should look elsewhere in the top 10 of dynasty startups. My reasoning is pretty simple. Once RBs turn 28 years old, they become really hard to move for fair value. Age might be overvalued in FF, but in terms of trades perceived value is as important as actual value. And since so many dynasty owners are youth-obsessed, I think Foster's trade value will only drop from here on out. McCoy and Rice are younger, and offer similar short-term potential. Richardson is the superior talent (IMO) and significantly younger. If I could get one of those guys or an elite young WR for Foster (in a PPR), I would pull the trigger.

RB Matt Forte, Bears - Similar story to Foster. I don't doubt his ability to put up difference-maker ppg numbers in the short term, so if that's all you're looking for then he's a fine choice. However, I think the trade value drop is coming soon.

I think some people are more concerned with having a "pretty" roster and future trade value than actually winning games. Even if Foster or Forte's trade value was down in two years - you could still get something for them if you are so inclined to trade them and you wouldn't have had to give up two years of excellant production. As far as trading them for a Rice or McCoy, most owners aren't interested in making a lateral move like that - what's the point?, so odds are you are going to "lose" from a production standpoint in any trade involving Foster or Forte - but at least you didn't take a hit on that future trade value.

 

[Hoosier16]

Treating all 26 year old RBs the same and selling them as a rule of thumb is a bad idea IMO. Sell Shonne Green? Sell Isaac Redman? Sell James Starks? That makes sense if you can find a trading partner. Those guys aren't very good, won't put up huge VBD for you even if they have good seasons, and will be done by age 27 or 28.

But the elite RBs will continue pumping out VBD until they're 29-31 (or older if you get lucky) and it's really hard to get back what you're losing. Foster is likely to put up 100pts of VBD this year -- that wins you titles now. If you'd traded Gore away after he turned 26 you'd have missed out on RB finishes of 5-20-12, and that understates his per-start value since he missed some games in two of those seasons.

Trading that kind of production away for prospects who will probably NEVER have a season like Foster has done is a losing bet most of the time IMO. Especially when you consider how long it will take to see the prospects blossom. Unless you can get a true upgrade in a relatively straight swap of players who are producing today I think it makes more sense to ride your starters until they drop and obtain prospects where you can without giving up a starter. There are guys available each year that can be had without surrendering current VBD (Gronkowski, Cruz, Stevie Johnson, Garcon, etc).

Nail most of your early first round rookie picks, hit on about half of your mid/late first round rookie picks and find a cheap prospect that pans out as a starter every year or two and you'll always be in the game without giving up top players who are producing today.

Eventually, you'll miss big on the Foster/Richardson type swaps.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

without even looking I knew Forte was on your sell list. Time to let it go.

Otherwise good effort, but I think Meachem>>Royal for SD

Readily admit I was wrong about his talent and staying power.Doesn't change the fact that he's a 26 year old RB whose trade value will drop precipitously over the next 2 years.

Guys like Frank Gore, Steven Jackson, and DeAngelo Williams were damn near untradeable at 28.

Some people don't care as much about exit value as I do. That's fine. For them, Forte is a solid pick. For me, he's a guy to sell/avoid. I'd say the same about Peterson/Chris Johnson/Arian Foster or pretty much any back that age who is still valued as an elite asset in drafts.

So now we're starting to draw the line at 26? Soon its going to be unless the RB is a rookie, he's washed up and I don't want him. I've seen Steven Jackson traded this offseason for a 2013 1st and 2nd Round pick - both will be late as they are the picks for one of the league's best teams but it does show that a rebuilding team can always get some decent value from a contender for an aging (yet productive) back if they want to start rebuilding a little.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Eventually, you'll miss big on the Foster/Richardson type swaps.

Playing devil's advocate against myself... If you're going to move a player like Foster you could do a lot worse than getting Richardson +. An uber prospect like Richardson or Calvin or Fitz might be the only time it actually makes sense. But even then you could end up with a fabulous prospect who flames out for personal reasons -- Charles Rodgers for example.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

without even looking I knew Forte was on your sell list. Time to let it go.

Otherwise good effort, but I think Meachem>>Royal for SD

Readily admit I was wrong about his talent and staying power.Doesn't change the fact that he's a 26 year old RB whose trade value will drop precipitously over the next 2 years.

Guys like Frank Gore, Steven Jackson, and DeAngelo Williams were damn near untradeable at 28.

Some people don't care as much about exit value as I do. That's fine. For them, Forte is a solid pick. For me, he's a guy to sell/avoid. I'd say the same about Peterson/Chris Johnson/Arian Foster or pretty much any back that age who is still valued as an elite asset in drafts.

26 is some magical dump age?

Yes.http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/07/16/age-of-decline-rb1/

What that chart shows is the RBs are just as or more productive at age 26, 27, and 28 as they were at 22, 23 and 24. Of course the difference is that the backs at 22, 23 and 24 have more years ahead of them - but it doesn't show a sudden drop off in production until 29 and beyond - sometimes it doesn't pay to think much beyond those three years.You think that some one who traded 26 year old RB Arian Foster (soon to be in decline, per this topic) for young stud WR Kenny Britt (who many had as a top 10 dynasty WR) earlier this offseason is happy with that decision right now?

The bottom line is that all player values are in fluctuation in a dynasty league - inuuries, transgressions and other factors creep in out of nowhere. It's silly to move a top RB like Foster or Forte just because they turned 26. I'm not saying they are untradable, but they are not "sells" just for the sake of selling.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

Good topic.In general, I tend to target certain types of guys as buys:1.) Guys that have recently been arrested. "Character" concerns are totally overblown in dynasty fantasy football IMO. Guys like Kenny Britt, Dez Bryant, and Marshawn Lynch are young and have the physical ability to be NFL and fantasy difference makers. Sure, they appear to be thugs / idiots / criminals / whatever you want to call them. Guess what? It really doesn't matter too much. 4 - 6 games (a pretty good suspension) is a tiny fraction of a 8 or 10 year NFL career. I'll take guys like this all day, fully expecting to be without their services for a chunk of games at some point(s), and enjoying the dominant production the rest of the time.2.) Injured players with proven elite ability. Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson, Britt again, Darren McFadden, Welker two years ago, guys like Sidney Rice, Brady after his knee, etc. Medical technology has come a long way in the 20 years I've been playing fantasy football, and very few injuries are truly career-ending. I'll take the proven stud talent all day and wait for the player to heal up. Again, one year represents a pretty small fraction of a guys career, and immediately after a big injury, players tend to be traded for pennies on the dollar.3.) Young highly drafted players who didn't make a big immediate impact. Baldwin and Ingram are the two big ones this year IMO. I'm not totally sold on either one's talent, personally, but the important thing for me is that they were highly drafted by their NFL teams (so they will receive the opportunity) and their value in fantasy is well below where it was a year ago, or should be. Not every rookie is going to come in and light it up right away; that doesn't mean that they won't be good eventually.4.) Old guys. Pretty self-explanatory. Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, Peyton Manning, Steve Smith, Wes Welker, etc. I worry far more about winning a title now as opposed to exit value in most cases. If I can get solid production for a year or two at a position of need, I'll trade multiple picks or iffy prospects for players like this all day long. There are a ton of owners out there who see an aging player on their roster and think "well, if I don't trade him now, I'll never be able to." A 23 year old scrub is not worth more than a 30+ year old stud just because he's younger.

Sometimes we have to learn these lessons ourselves before we can understand this advice... McFadden Dez and Britt were favorites of mine for a while... when in reality the consistent producers like forte and roddy I should have been going after. love #4, its totally true. just dealt for Sjax today, looking for 1 or 2 elite years with Fisher at the helm.

 

[jurb26]

Guys I'm buying.

QB;

Stafford - the guy is still only 24 years old, has elite ability and is looking like he will play with the best WR in the NFL for several more years to come. It's aslo frightening to think that his stats could have been much better than his finish last year had he not played 4 games with a hand injury. I think Stafford will be an elite fantasy QB for the next 10 or so years and becuase of his injuries in his first couple of seasons the buying price is still bellow where it should be.

Weeden - I like Weeden a good bit. While he will by no means light the fantasy world on fire, I think he offers a decent backup option for at least the next 4 years. If Clev. ever does find quality weapons on the outside, he could become a high end QB2. The best thing about him, he's dirt cheap. Depending on the league format you play in starting QBs can be hard to find and Weeden is a bit of a diamond in the rough IMO.

Guys I'm selling;

Brees - I feel his time as an elite QB in fantasy is just about up. I'm concerned about the loss of his play caller this year and just deterioration from age. On top of that, several other young QBs have already begun to close the gap and will continue to do so this year IMO. I'm not saying Brees will take a nose dive. He will still put up very good numbers this year and perhaps next. If you can move him for a kings ransom though, I'd do it.

Gabbert - Simply put, I have veery little confidence that Gabbert will be a starting QB in the NFL 2 years from now. If you can move him for something of decent value, I'd do it.

 

[squistion]

WR TJ Graham, Bills

WR DeVier Posey, Texans - Two cheap rookie receivers who both have starting potential and are available for next to nothing. I particularly like Graham, simply because he has elite speed and his price tag is so low. I wouldn't get my hopes up too high for either of these guys, but in terms of cost-per-upside, they seem like good acquisitions.

So far Posey has not been that impressive:

Texans coach Gary Kubiak indicated again Wednesday that third-round pick DeVier Posey is a work in progress.

Kubiak likes Posey's talent, but already questioned his conditioning once and has reportedly "hollered at" the rookie more than any player during pre-training camp workouts. "He’s inconsistent," Kubiak said of Posey. "He missed a year of football, which you can tell. ... We have to get him caught up."

Jun 13 - 4:28 PMSource: houstontexans.com

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/7540/devier-poseyThe WR to target is Lestar Jean and he isn't going for much more than Posey. Jean was turning heads at OTAs and was given the nickname "Big Play." More from Rotoworld:

The Houston Chronicle's Lance Zierlein expects Lestar Jean to be the Texans' first receiver off the bench this season.

Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter are the Texans' starters, and it sounds like Jean will play in all three-receiver sets. An astute football mind whose father was a longtime NFL offensive line coach, Zierlein writes that he's "buying into the hype" on Jean as a 2012 impact player. Zierlein notes that Jean possesses "tremendous hands" with "an ability to operate vertically as well." Jean is a name to keep in mind in case Johnson or Walter gets injured.

Jul 20 - 3:31 PMSource: Houston Chronicle

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/7241/lestar-jean

 

[jurb26]

2.) Injured players with proven elite ability. Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson, Britt again, Darren McFadden, Welker two years ago, guys like Sidney Rice, Brady after his knee, etc. Medical technology has come a long way in the 20 years I've been playing fantasy football, and very few injuries are truly career-ending. I'll take the proven stud talent all day and wait for the player to heal up. Again, one year represents a pretty small fraction of a guys career, and immediately after a big injury, players tend to be traded for pennies on the dollar.3.) Young highly drafted players who didn't make a big immediate impact. Baldwin and Ingram are the two big ones this year IMO. I'm not totally sold on either one's talent, personally, but the important thing for me is that they were highly drafted by their NFL teams (so they will receive the opportunity) and their value in fantasy is well below where it was a year ago, or should be. Not every rookie is going to come in and light it up right away; that doesn't mean that they won't be good eventually.

In the dynasty leagues I play in these seem to be extremely common trends that a lot of owners look to capitalize on. I'm no different. I've got Ingram and Charles in one league and they seem to be the most attractive players on my roster right now. Actaully, they have been all off-season.That said, I'm not moving them at a discount. If I wasn't a believer in their ability then I would.

 

[Sabertooth]

Buying: Carson Palmer. He has at least 4 more seasons in him. He has really nice young talent around him and a really nice management team in place.

 

[Sabertooth]

Selling: Britt is just trouble. A true loser. Now with major injury concerns to boot. Dump him in a package deal with a guy like Steve Smith and go get AJ Green. Dump him straight up for Mike Wallace once this contract thing drags on a bit.

 

[Sabertooth]

Selling Adrian Peterson. But not in the preseason. Wait for him to crush a game and let his value return to pre-injury level. Then get a nice prospect like David Martin and a pick for him.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Weeden - I like Weeden a good bit. While he will by no means light the fantasy world on fire, I think he offers a decent backup option for at least the next 4 years. If Clev. ever does find quality weapons on the outside, he could become a high end QB2. The best thing about him, he's dirt cheap. Depending on the league format you play in starting QBs can be hard to find and Weeden is a bit of a diamond in the rough IMO.

Gabbert - Simply put, I have veery little confidence that Gabbert will be a starting QB in the NFL 2 years from now. If you can move him for something of decent value, I'd do it.

Weeden? Really? I'm usually the last guy to use age as a reason to downgrade someone, but in a comparison between complete unknowns give me the guy 4-5 years younger every time. Weeden is also in a situation that is about as bad as it gets: poorly run team that will want to focus on the run more now and has possibly the worst group of WRs in the entire NFL. No thanks. I honestly don't think he's even worth a roster spot in outside of 2 QB leagues.I agree that Gabbert is probably garbage, but I doubt his owners can get anything for him right now. If you have him, you spent a pick on him, and might as well give him another year unless you're dying for roster space. He was a high 1st, and the Jags will have him on a long leash.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Selling: Britt is just trouble. A true loser. Now with major injury concerns to boot. Dump him in a package deal with a guy like Steve Smith and go get AJ Green. Dump him straight up for Mike Wallace once this contract thing drags on a bit.

Britt is going for WAY less than that right now. Zero chance he's a major component in an AJ Green deal right now in any league I'm in.ETA from the dynasty trade thread:Britt for Sidney Rice and a late 2013 1stBritt for Michael Floyd and Josh Gordon

 

[jurb26]

Weeden - I like Weeden a good bit. While he will by no means light the fantasy world on fire, I think he offers a decent backup option for at least the next 4 years. If Clev. ever does find quality weapons on the outside, he could become a high end QB2. The best thing about him, he's dirt cheap. Depending on the league format you play in starting QBs can be hard to find and Weeden is a bit of a diamond in the rough IMO.

Gabbert - Simply put, I have veery little confidence that Gabbert will be a starting QB in the NFL 2 years from now. If you can move him for something of decent value, I'd do it.

Weeden? Really? I'm usually the last guy to use age as a reason to downgrade someone, but in a comparison between complete unknowns give me the guy 4-5 years younger every time. Weeden is also in a situation that is about as bad as it gets: poorly run team that will want to focus on the run more now and has possibly the worst group of WRs in the entire NFL. No thanks. I honestly don't think he's even worth a roster spot in outside of 2 QB leagues.I agree that Gabbert is probably garbage, but I doubt his owners can get anything for him right now. If you have him, you spent a pick on him, and might as well give him another year unless you're dying for roster space. He was a high 1st, and the Jags will have him on a long leash.

Here's the thing about Clev., to me anyway. They are solid where it matters most, upfront on the Oline. Weeden isn't a guy you draft and expect much from this year. He is a guy you draft, dirt cheap and hold. If, and I know it's a big if, Clev. finds a solid passing target at WR then I think his value could explode. I'm not sold that that guy is currently on the roster. Many like Little. I'm not such a fan. Others really seem to like Gordon. Personally, I think the Gordon hype is out of control and he is a project at best. You never know though. Clev. could easily add that piece in next years draft or FA. This time last year Clev was a team totally void of talent at the skill positions. They have upgraded that talent significantly with the addition of Richardson (primarily) and Weeden IMO. They have made attempts at WR, though I'm skeptical...

The bottom line is Weeden cost basically nothing, but has potential to be something. That's the kind of player I like taking gambles on.

 

[MAC_32]

The problem with RB's over age 26 is trade value, if you keep a RB up to that point you're probably going to ride him until the wheels come off because it's difficult to find a willing trade partner. Not that it's a bad thing, I just prefer to get value for guys before they crash. i.e. if I had better RB depth I'd have dealt Chris Johnson before last offseason. Not because I think he's nearing the cliff, but there was holdout potential and his value probably is going to only decline from that point. I did not have the adequate depth to sacrifice him for future #1 picks nor could I orchestrate a trade in which I could get a RB I want (and another piece) in return, so I kept him and at this point I probably have him for good.

This is how I try to build my dynasty teams, build a quality starting lineup then start sprinkling darts around them and as they hit flip current starters for future #1's and slide the connected darts into the lineup.