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Dynasty: the current RB pool is ATROCIOUS. (1 Viewer)

Adam Harstad

Moderator
I'm probably not saying anything that any dynasty owner is not aware of, but when putting together my RB rankings, I was struck once again by just how truly terrible this year's RB crop is. 9 of the top 10 and 14 of the top 20 RBs so far (standard scoring) are 26 or older. The exceptions are Lesean McCoy, Demarco Murray, Gio Bernard, Alfred Morris, Jacquizz Rodgers, and Bilal Powell. Powell and Rodgers are both backups keeping the seat warm for the starter, and Murray is injured (again) and has been the subject of trade rumors. Morris has been strong, but he's getting vultured, and his value takes a major hit in PPR leagues. Ridley and Richardson, two of last year's young stars, have both been major headaches for their owners. Martin had been, too, and now he's lost for the season. Even older stalwarts like Rice and Spiller have been disappointing.

There's a legitimate case for putting not one, not two, but THREE rookie 2nd round picks with under 100 carries in the top 10 of dynasty rankings right now. When what was universally considered the worst dynasty rookie crop in years accounts for a quarter of the dynasty RB1s, things are terrible.

What does everyone think is the proper response to this drought? Paying even more than usual for someone like Lesean McCoy? Loading up on rookie picks and hoping for a talent influx in the next few seasons? Sloughing the RB position and building around WRs or even QBs/TEs, instead? Saying screw it all and rolling with the old guys (say, Reggie Bush and Adrian Peterson) until the wheels fall off? What's the play?

 

zamboni

Footballguy
I think more and more situation has to factor into rankings. That is, with the proliferation of RBBC throughout the league, the rare three-down, all-purpose RBs are increasingly valuable - even if they are on the wrong side of 26.

 

jsharlan

Footballguy
Building around WRs and TEs has been the way for me in big starting lineup leagues that I play in. There is just so much hit or miss when it comes to stud RBs, and their price is way higher than their value often turns out to be. The way the league continues to move away from workhorse backs and more and more passing offenses, its really a crap shoot.

 

Spin

Footballguy
Yah, it's definitely rough right now. And owners who have the guys like Gio, Lacy, Bell want the world for them because of reasons exactly like you said, if not them, then who else. Someone has to be ranked in the top 10.

I've tried to move Rice but to no avail, his trade value seems too low so he stays on my roster.

I think the way to approach this year is to go after guys like Tate, Pierce, Bryce Brown etc, talented backups that could be in the top 10 this time next year or the following. I'm trying to acquire Tate in all of my dynasty leagues. Load up on picks/young talented backups that could be the starter soon, and fill the starting lineup with unexciting, but current producing rbs like Woodhead, Sproles, Gore, FJax.

 

MattFancy

Footballguy
It's even worse when you miss on a bunch of young guys. My worst dynasty team has Hillman, Ingram, Vick Ballard, Franklin, Donald Brown, and I just traded Ridley. All young guys with some promise have all been craptastic. None worse than Ingram.

 

EBF

Footballguy
I think the strategy that I would use in startup drafts is the same that I used a couple years ago. If you can't get one of the few RBs with the right combination of youth/talent, avoid overpaying for a mediocrity just to fill your lineup and spend your picks elsewhere.

There might not be a lot of bankable young stars at RB right now, but there's no shortage of intriguing propositions. Christine Michael is probably worth twice what his generic dynasty rankings suggest. Other cheap options like Ryan Mathews, Jonathan Stewart, and Bernard Pierce offer comparable (and probably even better) talent compared to names like LeVeon Bell and Eddie Lacy. Instead of paying huge for a mediocrity, I would rather snipe one of those guys for a discount.

Quite a few of the guys getting it done right now in FF (Moreno, Lynch, Bush) were seen as discardable too within the past few years. With 32 teams out there, someone is always going to get the opportunity to touch the ball. That means for all the declining stars and disappointments there will also be a certain amount of risers and pleasant surprises to help fill the void.

 

dewmass

Footballguy
I think the way to approach this year is to go after guys like Tate, Pierce, Bryce Brown etc, talented backups that could be in the top 10 this time next year or the following. I'm trying to acquire Tate in all of my dynasty leagues. Load up on picks/young talented backups that could be the starter soon, and fill the starting lineup with unexciting, but current producing rbs like Woodhead, Sproles, Gore, FJax.
This is how I have tried to do it, but it's frustrating sitting on Pierce and Bryce. They aren't startable week to week and have little to no trade value to most other owners, and even the owners of Rice and McCoy won't pay for them, let alone overpay for them. You have to be exceptionally patient waiting on players like those turning into RB1 type players and in the meantime you have weekly matchups to win.
 

Adam Harstad

Moderator
Worth noting that RB scoring is not actually down from last year. In fact, through 7 weeks, RB scoring is up across the board. In standard scoring, RBs have combined for 3715.9 fantasy points compared to 3691.7 last year. In PPR, that's 4754.9 points against 4656.7 points.

RBs have been scoring, we've just been seeing more of that production split up (see: Woodhead/Mathews in San Diego), and more of that production going to old backs (see: Forte/Charles/Peterson/Lynch/etc.) Which produces a really crappy dynasty crop.

 

buck naked

Footballguy
Worth noting that RB scoring is not actually down from last year. In fact, through 7 weeks, RB scoring is up across the board. In standard scoring, RBs have combined for 3715.9 fantasy points compared to 3691.7 last year. In PPR, that's 4754.9 points against 4656.7 points.

RBs have been scoring, we've just been seeing more of that production split up (see: Woodhead/Mathews in San Diego), and more of that production going to old backs (see: Forte/Charles/Peterson/Lynch/etc.) Which produces a really crappy dynasty crop.
Is Charles an "old" 26? :shrug:

 

Area51Inhabitant

Footballguy
If you add Starks contribution the week Lacy got the early concussion and Franklin's performance the next week, you could put a Green Bay composite back very high on this list per game over the last 6 weeks.

 

Adam Harstad

Moderator
Worth noting that RB scoring is not actually down from last year. In fact, through 7 weeks, RB scoring is up across the board. In standard scoring, RBs have combined for 3715.9 fantasy points compared to 3691.7 last year. In PPR, that's 4754.9 points against 4656.7 points.

RBs have been scoring, we've just been seeing more of that production split up (see: Woodhead/Mathews in San Diego), and more of that production going to old backs (see: Forte/Charles/Peterson/Lynch/etc.) Which produces a really crappy dynasty crop.
Is Charles an "old" 26? :shrug:
26 is on the old side for a dynasty RB. IIRC, by midway through his age 26 season, the typical back will have already produced around 2/3s of his career value (I'm sure Parsons or ZWK could give a more accurate estimate). 26 also happens to be the point where most RBs start seeing their dynasty value discounted due to age.

 

FreeBaGeL

Footballguy
Worth noting that RB scoring is not actually down from last year. In fact, through 7 weeks, RB scoring is up across the board. In standard scoring, RBs have combined for 3715.9 fantasy points compared to 3691.7 last year. In PPR, that's 4754.9 points against 4656.7 points.

RBs have been scoring, we've just been seeing more of that production split up (see: Woodhead/Mathews in San Diego), and more of that production going to old backs (see: Forte/Charles/Peterson/Lynch/etc.) Which produces a really crappy dynasty crop.
Eh, it's not even that. This year the top 32 backs have scored more than the top 32 backs had at this point last year. The top 10 backs have scored more than the top 10 backs had at this point last year as well.

I wonder how much of it is our perception and our arbitrary age cutoff of 26 years old. 4 of last year's backs that were under 26 years old and in the top 10 were 25 years old and have now turned 26.

That said, there were a big chunk of other guys under 26 also that have now fallen out for various reasons (Alf, Martin, Richardson).

The scoring is still there this year, it's just older and less sexy. Gore, Moreno, Fjax, Bush. Then you have guys like Charles and Lynch who were considered young last year and are still producing, but have just reached that stage over one offseason where our perception changes and views them as "older" now.

 

EBF

Footballguy
I think the way to approach this year is to go after guys like Tate, Pierce, Bryce Brown etc, talented backups that could be in the top 10 this time next year or the following. I'm trying to acquire Tate in all of my dynasty leagues. Load up on picks/young talented backups that could be the starter soon, and fill the starting lineup with unexciting, but current producing rbs like Woodhead, Sproles, Gore, FJax.
This is how I have tried to do it, but it's frustrating sitting on Pierce and Bryce. They aren't startable week to week and have little to no trade value to most other owners, and even the owners of Rice and McCoy won't pay for them, let alone overpay for them. You have to be exceptionally patient waiting on players like those turning into RB1 type players and in the meantime you have weekly matchups to win.
I know what you mean. One of my dynasty teams in a start 1 RB league has Trent Richardson, Christine Michael, Bernard Pierce, and Bryce Brown as the main RB corps. I think that might be the best backfield in the league, but it's not producing anywhere near that level. I could cash in any one of those guys for immediate help, but in doing so I would be sacrificing value because I think most of those guys are worth a lot more than what I could get in a trade.

That puts you in a tough position of either taking your lumps and staying true to your vision or pulling the plug at a discount in hopes of competing today. If I really felt I was only one player away, I would probably try to make a move for a discount stopgap guy like Sproles or Reggie to help get me over the hump. Just from experience though, I've found that more often than not I live to regret short-sighted lineup-based roster decisions in my dynasty leagues.

What gets lost in the stupid "championship banners fly forever" rhetoric is that by sacrificing overall value to compete today, you are actually decreasing your chances of winning future championships. So if you ship out Christine Michael for Darren Sproles, maybe it puts you over the hump in 2013. And maybe it costs you the title in 2015, 2016, and 2017. With those short-sighted moves, you usually come to regret them pretty quickly.

The name of the game for me is accumulating the most roster value. If you commit to that approach and you make the right decisions, you will eventually accumulate a big roster advantage over teams who are constantly mortgaging the future. Hypothetically, you should've been on the lookout for bargain RB buys in 2010 just like you are today. If you had bought Lynch and Moreno back then when they were cheap, you're set at RB now and you can groom Michael/Pierce/etc without having to worry about selling short to keep your team in the hunt. Kind of like how if you buy Michael and Pierce today when they're great values, you won't have to overpay for help in 2015 when those guys are starting every game for you.

It's a lot more difficult in practice than in theory, but I think if you are always accumulating value by buying players for less than what they're really worth, it's inevitable that you will eventually have a very strong roster. That doesn't mean there won't be huge growing pains. When you are getting killed in the box score every week, there is a huge temptation to do something about it. I've actually found that, contrary to what you might expect, making those win now moves at the expense of future value is actually a poor overall strategy.

So for me the question should probably be, "Which RBs are worth less than what they cost in dynasty leagues?" Rather than, "Which RB can I buy right now who will give me useful production right away?" Sometimes those two answers might overlap. But sometimes the answer to the first question might be a useless bench player like Christine Michael. If that's what you decide, I think you think you need to stay true to your vision even if means taking some lumps in the short term.

 
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ConnSKINS26

Footballguy
There's some great discussion so far--but I'm going to come at this from another direction, which was hinted at in the OP.

This dynasty RB wasteland should be making those who can, jostle for position in this upcoming rookie draft.

With the current crop of RB's, a rookie with pedigree and a good landing spot could blow the whole thing up and jump into the top 5/10 very quickly. If Seastrunk and/or Gordon (if he comes out) land somewhere where they'll get touches, they will be untouchable in no time. Look at Gio right now. Still splitting carries, and more impressive possibly as a receiver than runner, but by default he's nearly untouchable.

That will be guys like Seastrunk and Gordon in a few months.

I've got Seastrunk in a devy league, and I'm already valuing him as a top-10 dynasty RB until I see where he lands, which could change things a bit along with the level of destruction he leaves behind at the Combine, and where he's drafted. But I feel confident that I'm holding a top young dynasty RB right now, who just isn't helping me this year.

The state of the RB position in dynasty is going to make these guys wrote their weight in gold.

 

ShamrockPride

Footballguy
Blame the current RBBC craze. Probably not even 10 teams that have a back get 75% of the teams carries when all backs are healthy. The primary back goes down, there are no more Michael Turner types behind LaDainian, it just becomes a 2 or 3 back committee.

 

EBF

Footballguy
I've got Seastrunk in a devy league, and I'm already valuing him as a top-10 dynasty RB until I see where he lands, which could change things a bit along with the level of destruction he leaves behind at the Combine, and where he's drafted. But I feel confident that I'm holding a top young dynasty RB right now, who just isn't helping me this year.
Most Seastrunk owners feel this way though. As will most of the people holding rookie picks 1-3.

If you're looking for a steal at RB, there are two pretty common routes:

1. 1st-3rd round NFL draft picks who show flashes, but who aren't untouchable right away because of poor immediate opportunity. Jamaal Charles, Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy, and Frank Gore are four good examples. Those guys were all RBBC players as rookies. At the time they absolutely were NOT thought to be consensus lock superstars. The most obvious parallels right now IMO are Christine Michael and Bernard Pierce. Two high picks who have obvious starter ability. Provided that you can find an owner who underrates one of those guys as badly as most generic dynasty rankings do, buying them now is free money.

2. Good players who have had success or hype in the past, but who have fallen out of fashion. I talk about these guys a lot. Reggie Bush, Knowshon Moreno, Marshawn Lynch. That's three top 10 RBs who at one point or another were all but left for dead by the FF community. Ryan Mathews is starting to climb back out of the grave as well. This phenomenon is all about capitalizing on the fickle, reactive human nature that drives people to panic sell and give up on players when confronted with extended adversity. Some obvious contenders right now include Jonathan Stewart, David Wilson, and Mark Ingram. I don't particularly like the latter two, but all three were highly regarded at one point in time and are still young enough to have several productive seasons in the future.

I would be focusing on those two populations instead of paying huge prices for Bell/Lacy/Bernard when the margin for error is basically razor thin. Seastrunk will be so hyped that he will probably cost almost as much as his ceiling, but there could be some 2nd-3rd round rookie backs who get drafted in RBBC or backup roles and become great buy targets. In some ways I actually hope that my favorite RB prospects get drafted into bad situations so I can buy them cheap instead of paying an excessive premium for immediate opportunity.

 

32 Counter Pass

Footballguy
jsharlan said:
Building around WRs and TEs has been the way for me in big starting lineup leagues that I play in. There is just so much hit or miss when it comes to stud RBs, and their price is way higher than their value often turns out to be. The way the league continues to move away from workhorse backs and more and more passing offenses, its really a crap shoot.
This. It is a passing league. Embrace it. If you can find two or three guys that get you 8-10 and have a dominant QB, WRs and TEs you will have a lot of success.

 

ConnSKINS26

Footballguy
I'm actually considering moving Austin for Michael in a PPR league. I'll regret it if Austin gets another QB or another OC or both, but a big part of me would rather gamble on Michael.

 

mbuehner

Footballguy
I'm actually considering moving Austin for Michael in a PPR league. I'll regret it if Austin gets another QB or another OC or both, but a big part of me would rather gamble on Michael.
If I was a Michael owner I wouldnt take that deal. Unless Austin changed teams. Another QB is going to be a rookie and another 2 years down the tubes. Michael imo is one twisted ankle away from being a top 10RB for the forseeable future.
 

Otis

Footballguy
More and more, the way to win in dynasty is to invest in stud WRs. This is becoming more and more a passing league; more and more RBBCs; WR's have a longer shelf life. So you invest all your value in the likes of Dez, Demariyus, and young guys like Jeffery and Allen. You get a move TE who's got potential to score big for years (Reed, Cameron, etc.). Then you plug in whatever RBs you can scrape up.

 

domvin

Footballguy
I'm actually considering moving Austin for Michael in a PPR league. I'll regret it if Austin gets another QB or another OC or both, but a big part of me would rather gamble on Michael.
If I was a Michael owner I wouldnt take that deal. Unless Austin changed teams. Another QB is going to be a rookie and another 2 years down the tubes. Michael imo is one twisted ankle away from being a top 10RB for the forseeable future.
As a Michael Owner, I would laugh if someone offered me Austin for him.......redraft or dynasty. Absolutely agree on Michael as a top ten play should Lynch go down.

Still holding onto Michael in an FFPC league even though I am thin at rb, his potential/upside is that good.

 

Adam Harstad

Moderator
More and more, the way to win in dynasty is to invest in stud WRs. This is becoming more and more a passing league; more and more RBBCs; WR's have a longer shelf life. So you invest all your value in the likes of Dez, Demariyus, and young guys like Jeffery and Allen. You get a move TE who's got potential to score big for years (Reed, Cameron, etc.). Then you plug in whatever RBs you can scrape up.
I don't think it's that the league is transitioning more to a passing league. I think it's that we've just had a few crappy draft classes at RB. Remember, it was just 3 years ago that we had Peterson, MJD, CJ2k, Charles, Rice, Forte, McCoy, Mendenhall, and Stewart all just beginning to hit their primes, and SJax, DeAngelo, Gore, and Turner as established studs with seasons left. All it takes is one more class like 2008 and suddenly there's talent to burn.

From 2009-2012, here are the RBs taken in the 1st-3rd rounds: Moreno, Dammit Donald, Wells, McCoy, Shonn Greene, Glen Coffee, Spiller, Mathews, Best, McCluster, Gerhart, Tate, Hardesty, Ingram, Ryan Williams, Vereen, Leshoure, Daniel Thomas, Murray, Ridley, Alex Green, Richardson, Martin, Wilson, Pead, LaMichael James, Hillman, Pierce. It's not like teams weren't still drafting RBs high or giving them a chance, it's just that over a 4 year span, an extraordinarily high percentage of those RBs absolutely sucked, so as the league's existing talent aged there were very few up-and-comers to take their place. I'd argue the only two unequivocal successes on that list are McCoy and Martin, with guys like Moreno, Spiller, Mathews, Murray, Ridley, and Richardson having some productive stretches.

 

EBF

Footballguy
From 2009-2012, here are the RBs taken in the 1st-3rd rounds: Moreno, Dammit Donald, Wells, McCoy, Shonn Greene, Glen Coffee, Spiller, Mathews, Best, McCluster, Gerhart, Tate, Hardesty, Ingram, Ryan Williams, Vereen, Leshoure, Daniel Thomas, Murray, Ridley, Alex Green, Richardson, Martin, Wilson, Pead, LaMichael James, Hillman, Pierce.
Definitely some crappy RB classes, but this is also just one snapshot in time. A lot of these guys are either injured or stuck in dreadful spots. In another 2-3 years maybe Richardson, Martin, Wilson, and Pierce are all productive starters. Maybe Tate and Gerhart finally get a chance to start somewhere.

I don't think the dynasty RB landscape lacks talent. I think what it lacks is safe choices. There aren't that many young guys that you can take high and feel good about. However, there is still quite a lot of talent out there. Last year gave us two 1000+ yard rushers, one who came very close, and another who managed to force Ray Rice into a RBBC. Already this year Bernard and Lacy are startable, Bell might be trending that way, and Michael looked like a demon in the preseason.

With only 4 first round RBs in the last 3 drafts this is definitely a bit of a downswing, but people will step up and produce like always.

 

Adam Harstad

Moderator
I wrote about the aging of the RB position in my article this week, but wanted to cross-post the following stat:

In 2010, the average age of the top 24 RBs was 25.1. Weighting by rank (so RB1 counted more than RB24) produced an average of 24.7. Weighting each player proportionate to their season-ending VBD also produced an average age of 24.7.

So far in 2013, the average age of the top 24 RBs is 26.5. Weighting by rank produces an average of 27.0. Weighting by VBD produces an average age of 27.1.

To reiterate for emphasis, the typical point of VBD has gone from being produced by an RB aged 24.7 to an RB aged 27.1. That's an increase of 2.4 years over a 3-year span. Basically, every back in the league has been getting older for years, and no one new has stepped up to take their place. In fact, of the top 10 backs in fantasy points (standard scoring), not one of them has entered the league in one of the last four draft classes.

This is not normal. Things are bad.

 

ShamrockPride

Footballguy
I wrote about the aging of the RB position in my article this week, but wanted to cross-post the following stat:

In 2010, the average age of the top 24 RBs was 25.1. Weighting by rank (so RB1 counted more than RB24) produced an average of 24.7. Weighting each player proportionate to their season-ending VBD also produced an average age of 24.7.

So far in 2013, the average age of the top 24 RBs is 26.5. Weighting by rank produces an average of 27.0. Weighting by VBD produces an average age of 27.1.

To reiterate for emphasis, the typical point of VBD has gone from being produced by an RB aged 24.7 to an RB aged 27.1. That's an increase of 2.4 years over a 3-year span. Basically, every back in the league has been getting older for years, and no one new has stepped up to take their place. In fact, of the top 10 backs in fantasy points (standard scoring), not one of them has entered the league in one of the last four draft classes.

This is not normal. Things are bad.
Very interesting point here. Would like to read the article if you have a link.

However I do think it's simply the case of a few bad classes. Nothing more. Figuratively speaking, the cream is getting a little sour...LOL

 

dgreen

Footballguy
There's some great discussion so far--but I'm going to come at this from another direction, which was hinted at in the OP.

This dynasty RB wasteland should be making those who can, jostle for position in this upcoming rookie draft.

With the current crop of RB's, a rookie with pedigree and a good landing spot could blow the whole thing up and jump into the top 5/10 very quickly. If Seastrunk and/or Gordon (if he comes out) land somewhere where they'll get touches, they will be untouchable in no time. Look at Gio right now. Still splitting carries, and more impressive possibly as a receiver than runner, but by default he's nearly untouchable.

That will be guys like Seastrunk and Gordon in a few months.

I've got Seastrunk in a devy league, and I'm already valuing him as a top-10 dynasty RB until I see where he lands, which could change things a bit along with the level of destruction he leaves behind at the Combine, and where he's drafted. But I feel confident that I'm holding a top young dynasty RB right now, who just isn't helping me this year.

The state of the RB position in dynasty is going to make these guys wrote their weight in gold.
:goodposting: All of this should lead to great opportunities for young talented RBs in the next couple years.

 

ConnSKINS26

Footballguy
I'm actually considering moving Austin for Michael in a PPR league. I'll regret it if Austin gets another QB or another OC or both, but a big part of me would rather gamble on Michael.
If I was a Michael owner I wouldnt take that deal. Unless Austin changed teams. Another QB is going to be a rookie and another 2 years down the tubes. Michael imo is one twisted ankle away from being a top 10RB for the forseeable future.
As a Michael Owner, I would laugh if someone offered me Austin for him.......redraft or dynasty. Absolutely agree on Michael as a top ten play should Lynch go down.

Still holding onto Michael in an FFPC league even though I am thin at rb, his potential/upside is that good.
Well, I must have found an Austin fan then, and I'm thankful I was able to get it done.

Gave Tavon Austin and Chris Harper

Got Christine Michael and Rod Streater

 

humpback

Footballguy
More and more, the way to win in dynasty is to invest in stud WRs. This is becoming more and more a passing league; more and more RBBCs; WR's have a longer shelf life. So you invest all your value in the likes of Dez, Demariyus, and young guys like Jeffery and Allen. You get a move TE who's got potential to score big for years (Reed, Cameron, etc.). Then you plug in whatever RBs you can scrape up.
And when everyone else does the same?

 

Adam Harstad

Moderator
I wrote about the aging of the RB position in my article this week, but wanted to cross-post the following stat:

In 2010, the average age of the top 24 RBs was 25.1. Weighting by rank (so RB1 counted more than RB24) produced an average of 24.7. Weighting each player proportionate to their season-ending VBD also produced an average age of 24.7.

So far in 2013, the average age of the top 24 RBs is 26.5. Weighting by rank produces an average of 27.0. Weighting by VBD produces an average age of 27.1.

To reiterate for emphasis, the typical point of VBD has gone from being produced by an RB aged 24.7 to an RB aged 27.1. That's an increase of 2.4 years over a 3-year span. Basically, every back in the league has been getting older for years, and no one new has stepped up to take their place. In fact, of the top 10 backs in fantasy points (standard scoring), not one of them has entered the league in one of the last four draft classes.

This is not normal. Things are bad.
Very interesting point here. Would like to read the article if you have a link.

However I do think it's simply the case of a few bad classes. Nothing more. Figuratively speaking, the cream is getting a little sour...LOL
Here you go, though obviously it's subscriber-only.

 

Adam Harstad

Moderator
So far in 2013, the average age of the top 24 RBs is 26.5.
Fred Jackson ruined the curve.
Jackson doesn't help, but it's not all on him, either. Here's the top 10 RBs by draft class:

2013: none

2012: none

2011: none

2010: none

2009: Knowshon Moreno, LeSean McCoy, Arian Foster

2008: Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte

2007: Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch

2006: Reggie Bush

2005: Frank Gore

Fred Jackson's a bit of an odd bird. He graduated college in 2003, but didn't get a sniff because he played for a Division III team. He played in the Indoor Football League for a couple of years, played in NFL Europe and got into a training camp in 2006, and finally made a roster in 2007. I guess you'd count him as part of the 2003 class, though.

 

coolnerd

Footballguy
Adam Harstad said:
LittlePhatty said:
Adam Harstad said:
So far in 2013, the average age of the top 24 RBs is 26.5.
Fred Jackson ruined the curve.
Jackson doesn't help, but it's not all on him, either. Here's the top 10 RBs by draft class:

2013: none

2012: none

2011: none

2010: none

2009: Knowshon Moreno, LeSean McCoy, Arian Foster

2008: Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte

2007: Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch

2006: Reggie Bush

2005: Frank Gore

Fred Jackson's a bit of an odd bird. He graduated college in 2003, but didn't get a sniff because he played for a Division III team. He played in the Indoor Football League for a couple of years, played in NFL Europe and got into a training camp in 2006, and finally made a roster in 2007. I guess you'd count him as part of the 2003 class, though.
I just glanced at one of PPR leagues and it is not like it gets way better with RB2 (13-24). On a per game basis there are guys like Lacy, Bernard and Bell, but still not anyone who qualifies as true long-term build around.

 

coolnerd

Footballguy
humpback said:
More and more, the way to win in dynasty is to invest in stud WRs. This is becoming more and more a passing league; more and more RBBCs; WR's have a longer shelf life. So you invest all your value in the likes of Dez, Demariyus, and young guys like Jeffery and Allen. You get a move TE who's got potential to score big for years (Reed, Cameron, etc.). Then you plug in whatever RBs you can scrape up.
And when everyone else does the same?
What did you do when "everyone" built around 1 to 2 "stud" RBs and would not trade them for anything remotely realistic?

 

ShamrockPride

Footballguy
Adam Harstad said:
LittlePhatty said:
Adam Harstad said:
So far in 2013, the average age of the top 24 RBs is 26.5.
Fred Jackson ruined the curve.
Jackson doesn't help, but it's not all on him, either. Here's the top 10 RBs by draft class:

2013: none

2012: none

2011: none

2010: none

2009: Knowshon Moreno, LeSean McCoy, Arian Foster

2008: Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte

2007: Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch

2006: Reggie Bush

2005: Frank Gore

Fred Jackson's a bit of an odd bird. He graduated college in 2003, but didn't get a sniff because he played for a Division III team. He played in the Indoor Football League for a couple of years, played in NFL Europe and got into a training camp in 2006, and finally made a roster in 2007. I guess you'd count him as part of the 2003 class, though.
I just glanced at one of PPR leagues and it is not like it gets way better with RB2 (13-24). On a per game basis there are guys like Lacy, Bernard and Bell, but still not anyone who qualifies as true long-term build around.
Well I mean it's kinda tough to accurately label guys as long term builds as rookies. With rare exceptions. Ppl were ready to call Reggie a bust after a year and he turned into a pretty damn good back. I'd say the the most obvious back to coin as such in recent years was probably Peterson, and that was 6 years ago.

 

humpback

Footballguy
More and more, the way to win in dynasty is to invest in stud WRs. This is becoming more and more a passing league; more and more RBBCs; WR's have a longer shelf life. So you invest all your value in the likes of Dez, Demariyus, and young guys like Jeffery and Allen. You get a move TE who's got potential to score big for years (Reed, Cameron, etc.). Then you plug in whatever RBs you can scrape up.
And when everyone else does the same?
What did you do when "everyone" built around 1 to 2 "stud" RBs and would not trade them for anything remotely realistic?
The point is, this isn't some secret revelation. Everyone knows that it's becoming more of a passing league, there are more and more RBBC's, and WR's have a longer shelf life.

The larger point is that it misses what people should be focusing on, which is VBD.

 

coolnerd

Footballguy
More and more, the way to win in dynasty is to invest in stud WRs. This is becoming more and more a passing league; more and more RBBCs; WR's have a longer shelf life. So you invest all your value in the likes of Dez, Demariyus, and young guys like Jeffery and Allen. You get a move TE who's got potential to score big for years (Reed, Cameron, etc.). Then you plug in whatever RBs you can scrape up.
And when everyone else does the same?
What did you do when "everyone" built around 1 to 2 "stud" RBs and would not trade them for anything remotely realistic?
The point is, this isn't some secret revelation. Everyone knows that it's becoming more of a passing league, there are more and more RBBC's, and WR's have a longer shelf life.

The larger point is that it misses what people should be focusing on, which is VBD.
And my non-smarty pants answer would have been something similar. No matter what the current strength or what 's popular there is value somewhere and a way to construct a competitive roster whether it is directly VBD or not.

 

mbuehner

Footballguy
One of the other consequences of a passing league- pass protection trumps young legs, and veteran backs are better blockers.

 
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rickyg

Footballguy
This year confirms my thinking that a philosophical change is in order for how to treat RBS in dynasty. No long contracts. Those are for top qbs, wrs, TEs. I had spiller at $20 signed to a 4 year contract starting this year and I just traded him away in a multi player deal involving Ellington at $1. So glad to be out of his contract. I'm done with signing RBS to long term contracts unless it's a player of Adrian peterson's caliber and situation.

The workhorse Rb is quickly becoming a thing of the past.

 
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Adam Harstad

Moderator
Again, I think that drawing conclusions that there's been some sort of sweeping change in how the league does business misses the point.

In 2004, the NFL decided that, as a "point of emphasis", they were going to crack down on all illegal contact beyond the 5-yard mark. As a result, the league underwent a passing explosion. Peyton Manning put up those "Star Wars numbers" that Irsay seemed to hate so much. Daunte Culpepper had a record-breaking season of his own. At the same time, the average age of RBs in the league shot up. In 2003, the average RB (weighted by VBD) was 25.9 years old. In 2004, that shot all the way up to 27.0, and in 2005 it was at 26.9- both figures very comparable to this year's 27.1 average. At the time, it would have been very easy to construct a story about how it was now a passing league, and RBBC was on the rise, and pass blocking was at an increasing premium, and so these old RBs were just the way things are now.

That would have been a very easy story. It would have been a very wrong story. The weighted average age fell from 27.0 and 26.9 in '04-'05 to 26.0 and 25.9 in '06-'07, and then, amidst yet another passing revolution (50 TDs for Brady! 5,000 yards for Brees!), the average age of RBs plummeted all the way down to 25.3, 25.3, and then finally 24.7. In 2011, when we saw THREE QBs reach 5,000 yards (and a fourth, Eli Manning, hit 4,900), the average age of RBs was 25.5. I wouldn't say it's any more of a passing league today than it was in 2011, and yet the average age has rocketed up to 27.1.

I think, like most everything else in the NFL, it's less "Xs and Os" and more "Jimmies and Joes". The typical RB is old right now because we haven't seen any young backs enter the league that were any good in a while. If we get a talented crop of RBs (like, say, the 2008 class again), the average age will plummet like a stone. RBBC and run:pass ratio have nothing to do with it, it's all just a matter of the quality of the incoming talent.

 

EBF

Footballguy
I think it's just a fluke variance thing. The talent is there. Much of it is just struggling, injured, or stuck on the bench.

Having said that, one of the interesting things about last year's draft was how the RB pool eroded from the time these guys were highly touted dev prospects to the time they finally became eligible for the draft. In 2010, only four graduating senior RBs were rated as 5 star prospects by both Scout.com and Rivals.com:

Marcus Lattimore

Michael Dyer

Lache Seastrunk

Dillon Baxter

Baxter was a recruiting bust who washed out of USC and now features for national powerhouse Baker University. The other three have all shown signs of being legit NFL talents, but have hit major speedbumps that either pushed them out of the draft entirely (Seastrunk and Dyer) or devastated their stock (Lattimore). If Seastrunk doesn't transfer from Oregon to Baylor, he's probably a top 40-50 pick in the 2013 draft. If Dyer doesn't get into legal trouble and miss a year of football, the same is true for him. And if Lattimore doesn't get injured, he also might have gone a lot higher. That's three big prospects out of the mix.

A year from now we might have all three of those names in the NFL competing for spots, which will help provide a boost to the overall RB picture.

 

Just Win Baby

Footballguy
So far in 2013, the average age of the top 24 RBs is 26.5.
Fred Jackson ruined the curve.
Jackson doesn't help, but it's not all on him, either. Here's the top 10 RBs by draft class:

2013: none

2012: none

2011: none

2010: none

2009: Knowshon Moreno, LeSean McCoy, Arian Foster

2008: Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte

2007: Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch

2006: Reggie Bush

2005: Frank Gore

Fred Jackson's a bit of an odd bird. He graduated college in 2003, but didn't get a sniff because he played for a Division III team. He played in the Indoor Football League for a couple of years, played in NFL Europe and got into a training camp in 2006, and finally made a roster in 2007. I guess you'd count him as part of the 2003 class, though.
It's so bad that the top 10 RBs only includes 9 RBs!

 

amnesiac

beer is good
This conversation may look a lot different in December.
i agree. i started stockpiling WRs in my dynasty a few years ago, and i'm currently tied for first. but i'm starting to put some feelers out for some cheaper RBs to hedge my bets.

and we don't even have to start RBs if we don't want to.

 

Digitallinh

Footballguy
So far in 2013, the average age of the top 24 RBs is 26.5.
Fred Jackson ruined the curve.
Jackson doesn't help, but it's not all on him, either. Here's the top 10 RBs by draft class:

2013: none

2012: none

2011: none

2010: none

2009: Knowshon Moreno, LeSean McCoy, Arian Foster

2008: Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte

2007: Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch

2006: Reggie Bush

2005: Frank Gore

Fred Jackson's a bit of an odd bird. He graduated college in 2003, but didn't get a sniff because he played for a Division III team. He played in the Indoor Football League for a couple of years, played in NFL Europe and got into a training camp in 2006, and finally made a roster in 2007. I guess you'd count him as part of the 2003 class, though.
It's so bad that the top 10 RBs only includes 9 RBs!
there is an entire paragraph about the 10th RB

 

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