[DYNASTY] The Overrated List (1 Viewer)

[EastBayFunk]

I've seen several drafts this offseason and here are some players who I think are going way too high.RB:Stephen Davis - An aging RB with a talented backup is not what I'd be looking to go after in a dynasty league. While Davis had a tremendous season last year, he once again showed that durability is not his strong suit. With Foster continuing to improve you may see more of a RBBC here than you did last year. That's not good news for Davis owners. Michael Bennett - Bennett came alive in 2002, but things have gotten a lot more complex since then. He wasn't getting goal line carries before his injury, and with Onterrio Smith around I wouldn't expect that to change. Bennett definitely has talent, but there are a lot of risks factors. If I want a talented RB who will be splitting carries I can find one a lot later than the first 4 rounds. Brian Westbrook - Am I missing something? Why are people taking him in the first four rounds? He didn't have over 15 carries in a single game last year and still managed to get fairly banged up. He has talent, but is a crazy pick as high as he's going. It seems to me like he'll be a permanent RBBC guy.WR:Santana Moss - I like Moss, but he's quite small and I really don't think he's going to be able to be a true #1 WR in the NFL. With McCareins around I look for a decrease in numbers here. Steve Smith - Smith is another diminutive player who has had some success. Like Moss he has a lot of skills, but I think his size will always hold him back a bit. If I draft a WR in the first four rounds I want a guy who can be a top 5 player. I don't think Smith has that kind of upside. Peter Warrick - Warrick had a good season last year, but he's never going to be better than Chad Johnson. It also doesn't help him that he has a pretty talented #3 WR named Kelley Washington nipping at his heels. If you really want a #2 receiver this badly it might be wise to wait a few rounds and take Ike Hilliard instead. I suppose Warrick could play the Keenan McCardell to Chad Johnson's Jimmy Smith, but there's a lot of risk for a minimal upside. Brandon Lloyd - I liked what I saw of Lloyd during the preseason, but people are going overboard with the hype. He was a fourth round pick for a reason. While his playmaking ability and hands are top notch, he has average physical abilities and will probably never be more than a pseudo #1 like Johnnie Morton was.

 

[PVCap99]

Steve Smith - Smith is another diminutive player who has had some success. Like Moss he has a lot of skills, but I think his size will always hold him back a bit. If I draft a WR in the first four rounds I want a guy who can be a top 5 player. I don't think Smith has that kind of upside.

i disagree with this...he played great in the playoffs and i think he has a huge upside

 

[Burning Sensation]

So what you are saying is you dont like small players, you can have Plaxico Burress and Koren Robinson along with their "prototypical size", ill take Santana and Steve Smith all day.

 

[chewybip]

agree with all of those. except steve smith is for real.I have my questions about javon walker. Fergy is better. It was all about luck and a LITTLE oppurtunity for him. Although if that's all farve has he should be ok.

 

[Burning Sensation]

One player stands out above all others to me, and thats Kevan Barlow. I see this guy going at the end of first rounds. He finally got the starting job from Hearst, because Hearst is 79 years old, and it will now be in one of the worst offensenses in the league.

 

[ardethan]

I've seen a lot of different people on a lot of different threads say that they think S Moss will fade but S Smith is for real. Why is this? I haven't watched either of them much, but it seems like they are both fast, talented small guys who excelled on teams without a talented big guy next to them.I don't know if they'll both make it or neither, but it seems like their odds are similar.What am I missing?

 

[aaronr28]

Well, Steve Smith did have Muhammad opposite him. But, regardless, Smith plays a more physical game than Santana and should be better able to beat press coverage, IMHO.As far as my all-overrated team, I'd have to include these guys:QB Michael VickQB Donovan McNabbRB Rudi JohnsonRB Domanick DavisRB Stephen DavisRB Brian WestbrookWR Santana MossWR David BostonWR Brandon Lloyd

 

[nightmare]

Yes, you are missing something about Westbrook. He is RBBC but still scores full time points. One BIG reason, he just might be Philly's best receiver. Bonus if you get his return touchdowns like I did. Dead on about Davis and Bennett. Foster showed some power moves during the superbowl(?) that he wasn't supposed to have(touchdown run). Davis is a great rb#3 but I wouldn't have him as a #2.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

So what you are saying is you dont like small players, you can have Plaxico Burress and Koren Robinson along with their "prototypical size", ill take Santana and Steve Smith all day.

 

[Motown Maniac]

The other unknown factor for Warrick, which may limit any upside is a new QB with 0 (ZERO)NFL experience. I haven't done my annual mocks yet, but I would guess Chad Johnson is being taken too high as well? Mo

 

[Bruno2]

I know for a fact in all my leagues TO will go late 1st early 2nd, too early for me this year.

 

[Motown Maniac]

I know for a fact in all my leagues TO will go late 1st early 2nd, too early for me this year.

I haven't made up my mind yet on TO? A new team, and new system should drop him down some? But, knowing TO's attitude, he will be bent on proving his worth to the 49ers. Tough one?

 

[cracKer]

I love the guy, but I think Chad Johnson may be a bit overrated this year for re-drafts.

 

[EastBayFunk]

I actually think Barlow is underrated. I would take (and have taken) him over Shaun Alexander, Edgerrin James, Fred Taylor, and Ricky Williams. I really can't see how you could be down on the guy. He has a career average of 4.7 yards per carry. He did well down the stretch last year and rushed for over 1,000 yards on just 201 carries. I think he's much closer to Shaun Alexander and Deuce McAllister than he is to Troy Hambrick and that he'll be a consensus top 10 pick next year.San Francisco's offense might be bad, but that won't matter much at all. Look at what Domanick Davis, Fred Taylor, Jamal Lewis, and Ricky Williams were able to do last year with relatively weak supporting casts.

 

[Motown Maniac]

Eastbayfunk wrote: I actually think Barlow is underrated. I would take (and have taken) him over Shaun Alexander, Edgerrin James, Fred Taylor, and Ricky Williams.

 

[EastBayFunk]

I don't see what the big deal is. Barlow is a proven talent with a lot less mileage than those backs. In fantasy football I always steer clear of the herd mentality. Merely drafting players based on where the consensus ranks them will not make you an exceptional fantasy football player.Every year there are a couple RB's taken in the second round or beyond who put up stud numbers. Looking at early drafts I think Barlow is going to be one of those guys in 2004. He has the track record of success and now should finally get workhorse carries.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Eastbayfunk wrote: I actually think Barlow is underrated. I would take (and have taken) him over Shaun Alexander, Edgerrin James, Fred Taylor, and Ricky Williams.

2nd that

 

[Burning Sensation]

In fantasy football I always steer clear of the herd mentality.

Not picking on you EastBay, but i am so sick of hearing this. I have no problem with people going against the grain every once and a while, but picking guys just to be different isnt going to get you anywhere. Picking a kicker in the 3rd round is quite opposite of the Herd mentality, but it cetaintly isnt going to help your FF team(s).

 

[EastBayFunk]

I never recommended anything that drastic. However, it's pretty clear to me that the writing is on the wall with Barlow in the same way it was with Ahman Green after his 2000 season. This is a young guy with a lot of talent who is about to get a whole lot of carries. If you wait until next year you won't be able to get him for anything less than a mid first rounder. Right now he's a steal in the second.

 

[Burning Sensation]

I never recommended anything that drastic. However, it's pretty clear to me that the writing is on the wall with Barlow in the same way it was with Ahman Green after his 2000 season. This is a young guy with a lot of talent who is about to get a whole lot of carries. If you wait until next year you won't be able to get him for anything less than a mid first rounder. Right now he's a steal in the second.

I dont think taking Barlow in the 2nd is against the "herd mentality" i have not seen him go any later than that in any dynasty drafts this year, yet i have seen him go in the first as much as i have in the 2nd.P.S. Ill take Rudi Johnson in the 3rd as opposed to Barlow in the 2nd.

 

[Imedos]

I actually think Barlow is underrated. I would take (and have taken) him over Shaun Alexander, Edgerrin James, Fred Taylor, and Ricky Williams.

I don't see why people freak out with this list, esp considering its dynasty rankings. Personally, the I would take Edge and Alexander over Barlow, but I could see an argument for Barlow over them as well.In redraft, depending on the scoring setup, that's a diff story though.I like some of the names being thrown out so far though. Boston, TO, all the GB wrs, and all the Minn and Cleveland rbs.

 

[aaronr28]

EastBay actually took Barlow with the #6 pick in a zealots dynasty draft ahead of Ahman Green so he is clearly one of the biggest Barlow supporters around (or a big 49ers homer). not trying to pile on b/c it could work out. But, it takes a lot of guts to pass on a young and proven stud like Ahman Green or Shaun Alexander with a great O-line and not a ton of mileage for a guy like Barlow that has yet to prove he can carry the load for a complete season.There's a lot of potential for Barlow, but I also see a lot of risk. Outside of the top-10 RBs or so, I'd feel comfortable taking a chance on him in a dynasty league. In general, I think he's going about where he should.

 

[EastBayFunk]

I actually probably would have taken Green, but he wasn't on my predraft list. I didn't think there was any way he'd slip to #6. I definitely would take Barlow over the other guys though.

 

[Burning Sensation]

EastBay actually took Barlow with the #6

Well, i will say, that is certainly ballsy. As a 2nd rounder Barlow is worth the risk, but the #6 overall, he would have to play Arizona all 16 games to be worth that spot.

 

[humans_being]

EastBay actually took Barlow with the #6 pick in a zealots dynasty draft ahead of Ahman Green so he is clearly one of the biggest Barlow supporters around (or a big 49ers homer).

Taking him at 1.6 ahead of proven studs like Green and Alexander is a bit much, IMO. I remember not too long ago a guy took a lot of heat for taking Shipp in the 1st instead of trading down or waiting until the 2nd or 3rd round. While Barlow certainly should be ranked ahead of Shipp, i don't see why you didn't trade down. Actually, you probably could have got him at 2.6 last year, no?

 

[fatness]

Quincy Morgan (again)David Boston (he'll be in trouble again)Lee Suggs (has to compete with Green)Jamal Lewis (very good, but his numbers will decline)Justin Fargas (overhyped)LT2 (just checking to see if you're awake)Green Bay Receivers (splitting catches)

 

[Drugrunner]

Brian WestbrookFargusBoston (Even More so now)TORudi JohnsonDuce StaleyReggie WayneJerry PorterTiki Barber (now that Coughlin is there)McNabbPortis (Still great, but he loses 25% of his numbers by going to the Skins)Michael BennettLee SuggsIs Arron Brooks still concidered good? If so, he's over ratedTim Rattay He's getting pumped up way too high in all the Dynasty Leagues I've seen

 

[aaronr28]

Taking him at 1.6 ahead of proven studs like Green and Alexander is a bit much, IMO. I remember not too long ago a guy took a lot of heat for taking Shipp in the 1st instead of trading down or waiting until the 2nd or 3rd round. While Barlow certainly should be ranked ahead of Shipp, i don't see why you didn't trade down. Actually, you probably could have got him at 2.6 last year, no?

it was a draft this year (Z18).you are probably correct though, I bet he could've traded down at least 4 or 5 spots and still picked up Barlow after A.Green, S.Alexander, E.James, and R.Williams.

Sounds like he had his predraft list set and didn't really get a chance to think about his options once his pick came up.

That Marcell Shipp pick is still a classic. I think it was a 2nd round pick, but still got absolutely ripped to shreds last year (as it should've).

 

[EastBayFunk]

Barlow was the player I wanted, so trading down never crossed my mind. It was a bit early, but he easily could've gone in the next few picks. I didn't want to risk that. I don't know how Aaron Brooks can be considered overrated. He's thrown for over 3500 yards with at least 24 TD passes each of the past three seasons. Those numbers look pretty solid to me. I realize that a lot of people question his leadership abilities, but you don't get fantasy points for leadership abilities. I think Brooks will be productive as long as he remains the starter in that system.

 

[humans_being]

Barlow was the player I wanted, so trading down never crossed my mind. It was a bit early, but he easily could've gone in the next few picks. I didn't want to risk that.

Fair enough. When did Z18 draft?

 

[EastBayFunk]

We drafted a few weeks ago.

 

[SuperGreen]

Is Arron Brooks still concidered good? If so, he's over rated

:wacko: is it me or are brooks and shaun alexander always running neck and neck for "most unappreciated" award?and all because they don't appear to leave their blood sweat and tears on the field.

 

[aaronr28]

I don't know how Aaron Brooks can be considered overrated. He's thrown for over 3500 yards with at least 24 TD passes each of the past three seasons. Those numbers look pretty solid to me. I realize that a lot of people question his leadership abilities, but you don't get fantasy points for leadership abilities. I think Brooks will be productive as long as he remains the starter in that system.

considering he was a big reason for my team winning the championship in Z10 last year, I don't think he's overrated at all.BUT, in leagues that penalize for turnovers, those fumbles can be pretty costly and he needs to protect the ball better. If Stallworth/Pathon/Horn and Deuce can all stay healthy for awhile, Brooks could probably easily put up top-3 QB numbers though.He's still young so I felt like he was a great candidate for building my dynastsy draft around. Plus, he wasn't as overpriced as the McNabbs/Vicks/Culpeppers all were last year.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

Portis (Still great, but he loses 25% of his numbers by going to the Skins)

No, he doesn't. Especially, if he plays a full season.

 

[humans_being]

We drafted a few weeks ago.

Well that explains why you drafted him so high. I didn't realize the draft was so recent. I couldn't take him ahead of Green and Alex though. Props for going after the player you wanted.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Brian WestbrookFargusBoston (Even More so now)

Im curious Drugrunner would you rather have Buckhalter than westbrook?? I dont know how westbrook can be over valued considering he finished around #20 RB last year sharing time with both staley and Buckhalter. with staley gone he is clearly a better RB/playmaker than buckhalter. I just dont see his numbers going down uless philly decides to draft a RB in rd1 or 2 of the draft. You're seeing something in westbrook that im not. I would think AR sees what he has in this guy..the guy is a playmaker. Fargas i dont see as being over hyped at all. matter of fact everything i have seen on him from most say he has no chance at the starting job for Oakland, which i will agree if they sign dillon. Boston i think will be undervalued. You can get this guy in rd5 or 6 in a 12 team league. Having a good running game and a very good wr opposite from him will leave him alot of one on one coverage. Im hoping that boston being reuinited with his position coach from AZ will help keep his head straight. I see his numbers going up from having brees as his qb and getting constantly double teamed last year.

 

[EastBayFunk]

My problem with Westbrook is the same problem I had with Charlie Garner last year. He's good, but he simply won't ever get enough touches to put your team over the top. If I take a RB in the first four rounds I want a guy who can potentially be a top 10 or even top 5 player. That generally means getting guys who can handle 20 carries a game.

 

[aaronr28]

My thoughts on Westbrook:His fantasy performance last year was grossly inflated due to all the TDs he scored. The chances of him repeating that type of TD production on a similar number of carries are slim to none, IMO. He clearly has some value, I just don't think he'll ever be much more than a quality RBBC guy. He'll lose TD carries to Buckhalter or some other back. I also question whether he'll be able to stay healthy for long stretches of time with an increased number of touches.For a top-20 fantasy RB, I tend to look for everydown RBs that will get the ball in all situations and are a strong threat to get at least 10 TDs each year. I think Westbrook's TD total in 2003 was a fluke and would be surprised if he topped 5 or so. Thus, I see his upside as a lot more limited than many others, and I think his downside (injury) is significant.He's in a bit of a weird spot. I think there is a dropoff from the true #1 RBs ranked ahead of him, and there might actually be a bit of a dropoff after him to the next group of pure RBBC guys. But, I'm just not convinced his upside is as great as it appeared based on what he did last year. I imagine the efficiency he showed last year will be extremely difficult to match.

 

[cracKer]

My thoughts on Westbrook:His fantasy performance last year was grossly inflated due to all the TDs he scored. The chances of him repeating that type of TD production on a similar number of carries are slim to none, IMO. He clearly has some value, I just don't think he'll ever be much more than a quality RBBC guy. He'll lose TD carries to Buckhalter or some other back. I also question whether he'll be able to stay healthy for long stretches of time with an increased number of touches.

I agree 100% here and look for Westbrook to post similar numbers to last year, plus a few caries but probably not as many TDs.

 

[Mr. Vegas]

I think Cracker and Aaronr28 are over rated. Oh wrong answer to the wrong question,miss read it. No for real I'll post in a couple of weeks with that answer.Guys I was just joking,you know your stuff.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

My problem with Westbrook is the same problem I had with Charlie Garner last year. He's good, but he simply won't ever get enough touches to put your team over the top. If I take a RB in the first four rounds I want a guy who can potentially be a top 10 or even top 5 player.

The problem with this is after Rudi johnson who is being drafted late 2nd round all the RB's after that are a RBBC type. Westbrook is clearly a more talented RB than buckhalter. I dont for a second believe westbrook will be a guy to get 25 carries a game, but i can see him alot more than 8 which is what he got last year with staley in the picture. I guess im just not as high on buckhalter as the rest of you, since that is all he has to compete against. I think he wins that battle hands down.

 

[EastBayFunk]

I think I would take a shot on a guy like Thomas Jones or Corey Dillon over Westbrook. They'll probably go later in a lot of drafts.

 

[aaronr28]

The problem with this is after Rudi johnson who is being drafted late 2nd round all the RB's after that are a RBBC type. Westbrook is clearly a more talented RB than buckhalter. I dont for a second believe westbrook will be a guy to get 25 carries a game, but i can see him alot more than 8 which is what he got last year with staley in the picture. I guess im just not as high on buckhalter as the rest of you, since that is all he has to compete against. I think he wins that battle hands down.

Buckhalter is an RFA and the Eagles gave him a low tender so it's not clear that he is big in their plans. I happen to like the rookie RBs coming out this year quite a bit so I wouldn't be surprised if the Eagles did something similar to what the Vikings, Texans, Lions, and Browns all did last year in finding a potential starting RB in the 4th round or later.This draft goes at least 10 deep with quality RBs that could pan out in the right system, and I'm sure the Eagles will bring in somebody to fill Staley's vacated spot. Westbrook and Buckhalter should form a nice RBBC, but I don't think the Eagles will go into the season with just those 2 guys. There is enough wiggle room for a sleeper candidate to emerge at some point and mess up the picture a little bit.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

thomas jones/atrain or buckhalter/westbrook. who has the advantage here?? Westbrook by a landslide. i doubt many people would rank buckhalter over atrain. shoot andy reid doesnt even rank buckhalter very high since he only tagged him with a 4th round pickDillon is a better pick but im not so sure for a dynasty draft. I would like dillon alot more if he actually had a team. knowing my luck i draft dillon and his sorry rear ends up back in cincy to split with rudi. :(actually tjones and dillon are going around the same round as westbrook

 

[EastBayFunk]

You're assuming that A-Train will be getting carries. While that certainly is possible, if Shea's offense is as billed then Thomas Jones might get a chance to be a workhorse. I'll take that chance, small as it may be, over the 0% chance of Westbrook becoming a workhorse. I realize that Buckhalter is an RFA, but it sounds like they'll be keeping him. If he goes then they will draft someone.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

You're assuming that A-Train will be getting carries. While that certainly is possible, if Shea's offense is as billed then Thomas Jones might get a chance to be a workhorse. I'll take that chance, small as it may be, over the 0% chance of Westbrook becoming a workhorse. I realize that Buckhalter is an RFA, but it sounds like they'll be keeping him. If he goes then they will draft someone.

i guess im just not sold on TJones. History tells me to be leary of him. Atrain proved to be a workhorse type RB already. With a decent O line Atrain is a very good RB.My thinking on westbrook is i would rather have the rb's that i know will get 20 plus carries a game but after Rudi is gone in late 2nd round there are alot of RBBC type backs and looking at who westbrook has to compete against i like his chances the best. He doesnt have to go against bennett or willy green (1st round pick atleast) all he has is buckhalter and i dont view him as nothing more than a backup RB for any OTHER TEAM.Maybe im just letting my eagle hatred get the better of me here. I know when the eagles played dallas last year i wanted westbrook on the bench. everytime that guy touched the ball it seemed he made something happen. staley/buckhalter i didnt fear at all. I think Reid knows what he has with westbrook and that is a playmaker.

 

[Drugrunner]

I think I would take a shot on a guy like Thomas Jones or Corey Dillon over Westbrook. They'll probably go later in a lot of drafts.

Agree 100%

 

[cracKer]

I think Reid knows what he has with westbrook and that is a playmaker.

I don't think that anyone would question this statement, but that's not where the problem comes from. Reid knows that he has a playmaker, but to make plays he has to be healthy and available. The main offseason argument here will be trying to identify the maximum number of carries Westbrook can receive while still delivering the desired output. I believe Reid has said he plans on 10-12 carries (with many more touches through the air) which, even in that limited amount, would still give him significantly more than last year. While we'd love to see him produce 16-18 carries a game, that number will likely have to include his receiving targets as well.

 

[Drugrunner]

Westbrook couldn't stay healthy carrying the ball 10-12 times a game.That not withstanding, he is simply not going to score the TDs he did this season again.Even if Healthy, which I doubt, add another 100 yards gained, cut his TD numbers in half, and see where you would slot him on those far more realistic numbers.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

I don't think that anyone would question this statement, but that's not where the problem comes from. Reid knows that he has a playmaker, but to make plays he has to be healthy and available. The main offseason argument here will be trying to identify the maximum number of carries Westbrook can receive while still delivering the desired output. I believe Reid has said he plans on 10-12 carries (with many more touches through the air) which, even in that limited amount, would still give him significantly more than last year.

Using that argument i have a hard time believing he will drop lower than his #20 rb ranking of last year. I have a hard time believing buckhalter will get more carries than westbrook unless they are milking a 21 point lead and trying to kill the clock.