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[DYNASTY] The Overrated List (1 Viewer)

Westbrook couldn't stay healthy carrying the ball 10-12 times a game.
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why?? because he got hurt last year?? that doesnt mean didly poo for this year unless you have a crystal ball that predicts injuries. Im sure your probably one that said fred taylor could never stay healthy. Injuries are a fluke and very hard to predict. I'm going by what i see from westbrook when he is playing and the guy can MAKE PLAYS period!! Injuries happen to everyone. thats why we draft for depth.
 
I'm horrified im actually defending an Eagle, what is the world coming to. :( I hope you guys are right and when they play dallas next year Andy Reid sits westbrook for fear of getting him hurt and plays buckhalter all game. :lol:

 
He finally got the starting job from Hearst, because Hearst is 79 years old, and it will now be in one of the worst offensenses in the league.
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The last time the niner offense "sucked" was during house-cleaning #1 in 1999 when Garcia took over for Young and Garner was playing his first year in SF. They ranked 1st in the nfl in rushing that year...
 
Overrated:Shaun ALexander - if you thought morris was stealing touches last season, wait til this season. Will Jones hold out again?Donovan McNabb - YES EVEN IF TO IS THERE. Staley is more important to this team than alot of ppl think IMO, and mcnabb is not the most accurate passer. Many will get burned spending an early pick because of the owens hype.Travis Henry - A tough one to say, but if the bills offense struggles again next season, the first thing they'll do is give mcgahee some more PT. Too much risk here to warrant a first round pick.Not sure if he's considered "overrated", but it's highly unlikely that Boldin will even equal his totals of last year. Rookie WRs that come out smokin' rarely match their first year performances in their sophomore seasons. Doesn't seem logical but it's usually the case.Quincy Morgan - not sure if he belongs on this list either, but morgan gets his points from big plays, not exactly Garcia's forte, which is quickly getting it to the open man underneath, Andre Davis.

 
Not sure if he's considered "overrated", but it's highly unlikely that Boldin will even equal his totals of last year. Rookie WRs that come out smokin' rarely match their first year performances in their sophomore seasons. Doesn't seem logical but it's usually the case.
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I dont know about that. My money is on Arizona being behind early in most games (as usual) thus, throwing the ball continuously giving Boldin Alot of garbage time love. :brush:
 
Marshall Faulk - Why is he still a first round pick in Dynasty Leagues? I just don't see him around in a few years, so why would a team take him with their #1 pick?

Duce Staley - Sorry, but I don't see him as a second rounder in a DL draft. He does some nice things, but he's not a building block type of player and that's what I'm looking for in the top 4-6 rounds of a DL draft.

Moe Williams - In a DL draft, why would this guy go in the top 5 rounds?

Any QB taken in the first round - Unless your league's scoring system is just plain ridiculously weighted toward QBs, picking one in the first round is a bad idea.

Marvin Harrison (in the first round) - It's simply the age factor and why I don't feel he should be a first round pick. Randy Moss, ok, but no other WR.

 
Well that explains why you drafted him so high. I didn't realize the draft was so recent.

I couldn't take him ahead of Green and Alex though. Props for going after the player you wanted.
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I was in that draft - matter of fact, I was drafting at 7 right behind EastBay and got Green. EBF would have had no shot at getting Barlow at 2.07 - Dom Davis went at 1.11 and I'm sure Barlow would have gone somewhere right around there.We can talk about value all day long (and I'm still not entirely sure how to define value in a dynasty league draft), but EBF wanted Barlow and he took him at the only spot he thought he could get him.

Back to the topic of this thread, I'll throw my vote in on Santana Moss as a player who I'm not going to get in my redraft because he'll be, IMO, overvalued. There's something about him that screams "fluke season" to me. He's a good player, but I don't like the fact that his production tailed off when Pennington came back. And accuse me of "heightism" if you like, but I don't tend to like smurfs at WR.

 
Eastbayfunk wrote: I actually think Barlow is underrated. I would take (and have taken) him over Shaun Alexander, Edgerrin James, Fred Taylor, and Ricky Williams.
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This is a DYNASTY draft we're talking about here people -- D-Y-N-A-S-T-Y!Although I may not totally agree with ranking Barlow ahead of all these, I firmly believe Barlow's DYNASTY value is much higher than his RE-DRAFT value, thus placing him in the mix with those listed and making Eastbayfunk's statement not quite so "out-of-whack".

Nice gamble, EBF!

:thumbup:

 
Peter Warrick - Warrick had a good season last year, but he's never going to be better than Chad Johnson. It also doesn't help him that he has a pretty talented #3 WR named Kelley Washington nipping at his heels. If you really want a #2 receiver this badly it might be wise to wait a few rounds and take Ike Hilliard instead. I suppose Warrick could play the Keenan McCardell to Chad Johnson's Jimmy Smith, but there's a lot of risk for a minimal upside.
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I'm a huge Future fan, and I still took Warrick in new dynasty league (WR 28 off the board) because I see him being productive either way: As the WR2 facing single coverage and returning some kicks; or as WR3 facing single coverage and returning most kicks. If you get points for return yards, guys like Westrook, Warrick, S.Smith, etc. regain some of their value.HERD
 
The last time the niner offense "sucked" was during house-cleaning #1 in 1999 when Garcia took over for Young and Garner was playing his first year in SF. They ranked 1st in the nfl in rushing that year...
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Does that mean the Niners are and will always be guaranteed a good offense? :confused: In 99 they still had the same Oline as the year before, plus Jerry Rice and Terrell Owens, so i dont think it is quite the same as it will be next year for the Niners.
 
One point that people seem to be overlooking on Barlow is that he hasn't exactly been a model of health. It seems like every year he gets injured in camp. I'm not talking about a veteren suffering a camp-related "injury" that magically heals after two-a-days are over; his injuries have consistently impeded his ability to wrest playing time away from Hearst. If Barlow hasn't been able to handle his previous (light) workload without getting banged up, how is he going to handle an entire season as the team's only offensive weapon? I own Barlow in a dyansty, and I like his upside, but I would want to see him stay healthy for once before I take him in the mid-first. 2nd round seems more appropriate to me.

 
Duce Staley - Sorry, but I don't see him as a second rounder in a DL draft. He does some nice things, but he's not a building block type of player and that's what I'm looking for in the top 4-6 rounds of a DL draft.

Moe Williams - In a DL draft, why would this guy go in the top 5 rounds?
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Just out of curiosity, has anybody actually seen Duce go in the 2nd round, or Moe go in the first 5 rounds? If so, I agree that both are grossly overrated and I obviously need to pay more attention to current ongoing drafts, as it never would have entered my mind that these players might go that high.
 
Just out of curiosity, has anybody actually seen Duce go in the 2nd round, or Moe go in the first 5 rounds? If so, I agree that both are grossly overrated and I obviously need to pay more attention to current ongoing drafts, as it never would have entered my mind that these players might go that high.
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I saw Duce go in the 3rd of 2 dynasty drafts, in the 4th of another, and in the 6th of a couple more. He went in the 5th round of mine. I'm pretty sure all of these drafts took place before he signed with Pittsburgh, IIRC.
 
Smith plays a more physical game than Santana and should be better able to beat press coverage, IMHO.
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well said. Throw in the fact that Smith puts up his numbers in a very RUN HEAVY offense compared to the WCO Moss enjoys.
 
I saw Duce go in the 3rd of 2 dynasty drafts, in the 4th of another, and in the 6th of a couple more. He went in the 5th round of mine. I'm pretty sure all of these drafts took place before he signed with Pittsburgh, IIRC.
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Okay. I could see Duce maybe going in the 5th given the perennial shortage of decent RBs, but I'd agree that the 3rd is clearly too early.
 
First off, drafting Barlow at 1.06 is way too early IMO. I have liked Barlow since he was a rookie, and think it's about darn time he was given the #1 spot for good. However, with the turnover in SF, and their offense decimated, I'm afraid that defenses will stack the line on Barlow. It will be interesting to watch though. If Barlow is being taken in the 1st and 2nd round, then that is too early for me, personally. I'd possibly take him as a #3 RB in the 3rd round+ but that's just me...Second, as far as "overrated" I'd have to say McNabb would be near the top of the list. If the Iggles get TO, I think his value shoots up a good bit though. I would also say Michael Vick right now too. If ATL drafts a young WR to go with Price, however, this could help him out a good bit. But their OL is terrible right now, so they need to address that. Vick is extremely talented, yes, but I look at someone being "overrated" as one who is drafted way earlier than what they are producing. Vick, so far, is that guy. Perhaps 2004 will finally be the season that we see him be the QB we all think he can be... *shrug* RB-wise, I always say Tiki Barber. Sure, he has an occasional big game, but overall with his fumbles and the conservative offense in NYG, he isn't worth the pick that he normally is picked at IMO.

 
Okay. I could see Duce maybe going in the 5th given the perennial shortage of decent RBs, but I'd agree that the 3rd is clearly too early.
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Something like 40 of the first 100 picks in my dynasty draft over at Zealots were RBs. Seen in that light, getting Duce in the 5th is a bargain. And, if Duce is going to be the main ball-carrier for Pittsburgh (say a 70/30 split or better) I wouldn't at all be surprised to see him going in the 3rd round (even late 2nd) of redraft leagues that draft in the summer. Now, if it looks like a true RBBC with Bettis or if Duce is used primarily as a 3rd down back, all bets are off.
 
Something like 40 of the first 100 picks in my dynasty draft over at Zealots were RBs. Seen in that light, getting Duce in the 5th is a bargain. And, if Duce is going to be the main ball-carrier for Pittsburgh (say a 70/30 split or better) I wouldn't at all be surprised to see him going in the 3rd round (even late 2nd) of redraft leagues that draft in the summer. Now, if it looks like a true RBBC with Bettis or if Duce is used primarily as a 3rd down back, all bets are off.
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3rd in a redraft, maybe. 3rd in a dynasty, no way. I want my 3rd round pick to be somebody who I can build around, not somebody whose going to be a short-term filler.
 
why?? because he got hurt last year?? that doesnt mean didly poo for this year unless you have a crystal ball that predicts injuries. Im sure your probably one that said fred taylor could never stay healthy. Injuries are a fluke and very hard to predict. I'm going by what i see from westbrook when he is playing and the guy can MAKE PLAYS period!! Injuries happen to everyone. thats why we draft for depth.
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Actualy, DR is a Charter Member of the Taylor Fan Club. :thumbup:
 
Does that mean the Niners are and will always be guaranteed a good offense? :confused:

In 99 they still had the same Oline as the year before, plus Jerry Rice and Terrell Owens, so i dont think it is quite the same as it will be next year for the Niners.
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<Burning reaches and comes down with nothing> :boxing: Kevin Gogan was a pro bowler in 1998. He was playing for the dolphins in 1999... Jeremy Newberry was also a rookie in 1999, so he couldn't have possibly been part of the line in 1998 either.

Owens was hampered by ankle injuries for all of 1999 and was nowhere close to his 1998 form. Rice was already on the downswing and barely had better numbers than Owens, but he also failed to break 900 yds.

So in summation, in 1999 the niners had a rookie QB from the CFL start the majority of the season, a new RB, at least 2 new starters on the O-line, and their 2 starting WRs underperformed significantly. Sound familiar? They finished 10th in overall offense and first in the NFL in rushing that year.

Nobody's saying the niners O will be good regardless, but you people are overreacting to the amount of turnover on the team. Most of the replacements coming in have been with the niners for some time and when they've had the chance, they've shined. So now that they're starters, all of a sudden it's doom and gloom?

 
So in summation, in 1999 the niners had a rookie QB from the CFL start the majority of the season, a new RB, at least 2 new starters on the O-line, and their 2 starting WRs underperformed significantly. Sound familiar?
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No it doesnt. First of all i think losing Gogan and Gaining Newberry is a little different than losing 2 probowl Olinemen as they did this year. Also, down year or not, are you saying Rice and Owens are no better than Lloyd and Wilson?
 
No it doesnt. First of all i think losing Gogan and Gaining Newberry is a little different than losing 2 probowl Olinemen as they did this year. Also, down year or not, are you saying Rice and Owens are no better than Lloyd and Wilson?
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And thus the backpedaling begins for burning...First of all, the niners will most likely take a guard on the first day of the draft. How exactly is a rookie 2nd rounder (newberry) taking over for a guy who made the probowl the year before (gogan) different from Harris (a first rounder with already a year under his belt) taking over for Deese? I mean Deese and Stone were good, but they were also injured most of last season and are old...I'm not sure why you insist on putting words into my mouth with your so-called "arguments"... My point is that despite Rice and Owens underachieving significantly from the year before, the running game was still solid (even after switching QB, RB, and losing a probowl guard) Do you seriously think the niners are just going into next season with Wilson and Lloyd as their starting WRs?
 
My point is that despite Rice and Owens underachieving significantly from the year before, the running game was still solid (even after switching QB, RB, and losing a probowl guard) Do you seriously think the niners are just going into next season with Wilson and Lloyd as their starting WRs?
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With Rice and Owens for defenses to be concerned with, i highly doubt Garner saw many 8 man fronts like Barlow is going to see this year.And just what WR will the 49ers bring in that will prevent this, Reggie Williams, if they are lucky? I dont think that will cut it.I think your homer colored glasses are blinding you from the facts.
 
With Rice and Owens for defenses to be concerned with, i highly doubt Garner saw many 8 man fronts like Barlow is going to see this year.And just what WR will the 49ers bring in that will prevent this, Reggie Williams, if they are lucky? I dont think that will cut it.I think your homer colored glasses are blinding you from the facts.
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I'll admit to being probably more optimistic than I should be regarding the situation, but humor me... here's the #'s for rice and owens in 1999.Owens: 754 yds/4TDsRice: 830 yds/5TDsMeanwhile Garner was rushing for 5 yards a clip and receiving at 9.6 YPR. (very similar to barlow's career averages)You don't think defenses were daring Garcia (who was a complete unknown rookie) to beat them that year?Your point should almost be moot. It's been demonstrated over and over again that good FF RBs don't need a good passing game to be successful.
 
Okay. I could see Duce maybe going in the 5th given the perennial shortage of decent RBs, but I'd agree that the 3rd is clearly too early.
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In Z14, Staley went 3.08 and Moe went 4.09.(No, certainly not to me!)
 
I'll admit to being probably more optimistic than I should be regarding the situation, but humor me... here's the #'s for rice and owens in 1999.Owens: 754 yds/4TDsRice: 830 yds/5TDsMeanwhile Garner was rushing for 5 yards a clip and receiving at 9.6 YPR. (very similar to barlow's career averages)You don't think defenses were daring Garcia (who was a complete unknown rookie) to beat them that year?Your point should almost be moot. It's been demonstrated over and over again that good FF RBs don't need a good passing game to be successful.
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Well, i guess its my argument that Barlow was just as much a product of the system as he is a good RB, and since that system is no longer in place, i doubt Barlow proves to be worthy of a first, or even a 2nd round pick.
 
Well, i guess its my argument that Barlow was just as much a product of the system as he is a good RB, and since that system is no longer in place, i doubt Barlow proves to be worthy of a first, or even a 2nd round pick.
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I'm concerned over the amount of turnover in the coaching staff, but when Erickson took over some of the playcalling late in the season last year, the SF offense got remarkably better and that was a good sign.The fact that Barlow is a three down back and the focal point of the offense alone should warrant him being taken in the first 2 rounds. I'm curious to see what RBs you'd take ahead of him...
 
I'm concerned over the amount of turnover in the coaching staff, but when Erickson took over some of the playcalling late in the season last year, the SF offense got remarkably better and that was a good sign.The fact that Barlow is a three down back and the focal point of the offense alone should warrant him being taken in the first 2 rounds. I'm curious to see what RBs you'd take ahead of him...
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Actually, i do think Barlow is worthy of a late 2nd round pick in a dynasty draft, and i am not anti Barlow, i would just be nervous if i were a Barlow owner with all the offseason loses. P.S. I would take Rudi Johnson and DDavis over Barlow :thumbup:
 
Yes, you are missing something about Westbrook. He is RBBC but still scores full time points. One BIG reason, he just might be Philly's best receiver. Bonus if you get his return touchdowns like I did.
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I have to disagree here. Staley was the better receiver of the three Eagles RBs. I'm not discounting Westbrook, he's explosive. However, he's also injury prone, and will likely miss 3-4 games again this year. Until he proves otherwise, I'd place him 18-22 in RBs.
 
Funny how people label westbrook as "injury prone" due to him missing a few games last year. Thats obviously a trend :rolleyes:worst part about his injury is it happened at the end of the season when they needed him the most. he is the "difference maker" that buckhalter is not.

 
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Funny how people label westbrook as "injury prone" due to him missing a few games last year. Thats obviously a trend :rolleyes:worst part about his injury is it happened at the end of the season when they needed him the most. he is the "difference maker" that buckhalter is not.
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It's not just last year. Look at his college career. He's not made it through a season.Yes, he is a difference maker. I'm not doubting his talent. I just don't see him making it through the entire 2004 season.
 
Don't need a crystal ball to know there definitely are guys that are more injury prone than others. Fred Taylor seems to have got over his chronic injury woes but until he proves otherwise I agree with placing Westbrook in this group(considering his college record as well) and think he should be downgraded accordingly ... I would also put Portis in the injury prone group except hard to downgrade him since when he is on the field he is a monster.

 
BTW, when people mention McNabb being overrated where do you see him being drafted ... in the leagues I have seen recently he has gone in the 4th round which seems decent value.

 
The last time the niner offense "sucked" was during house-cleaning #1 in 1999 when Garcia took over for Young and Garner was playing his first year in SF. They ranked 1st in the nfl in rushing that year...
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While everyone knows I do not think Barlow is as good as the numbers he put up briefly last season, I do have to agree with china on this one... especially since Erickson is the coach, Barlow will get every chance to put up numbers in this offense. He'll likely see 25+ carries a game.The sheer number of carries he gets will make him a valuable back for the first 6-8 games.
 
Funny how people label westbrook as "injury prone" due to him missing a few games last year. Thats obviously a trend :rolleyes:worst part about his injury is it happened at the end of the season when they needed him the most. he is the "difference maker" that buckhalter is not.
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If a Mini Cooper and a Hummer H2 both get hit by a mack truck going 50 mph, which has a better chance of driving away from the accident?
 
If Barlow is being taken in the 1st and 2nd round, then that is too early for me, personally. I'd possibly take him as a #3 RB in the 3rd round+ but that's just me...
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My first suggestion to you then is to not bother listing him, because he'll be long, long, long gone by the 3rd round (he's going as the 10th-13th RB in early drafts). My second suggestion is to have a look at the combined Barlow/Hearst numbers from the last 2 years, adjust them however you like for Barlow in 2004, and compare that to what's available in the 3rd round of a typical fantasy draft. Slotting him there is just laughable.
 
My first suggestion to you then is to not bother listing him, because he'll be long, long, long gone by the 3rd round (he's going as the 10th-13th RB in early drafts). My second suggestion is to have a look at the combined Barlow/Hearst numbers from the last 2 years, adjust them however you like for Barlow in 2004, and compare that to what's available in the 3rd round of a typical fantasy draft. Slotting him there is just laughable.
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Its laughable that you think its that simple.
 
Its laughable that you think its that simple.
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B.S., it's pretty clear to most of us that there is no way Barlow will be available in round 3 of any normal dynasty draft.The studs at RB would likely include this group of 12: Holmes, LT2, Deuce, Portis, A.Green, J.Lewis, Alexander, Edge, M.Faulk, Ricky, Henry, Taylor

after that, Barlow has to be a consideration in the same group as Domanick Davis and Rudi Johnson. After those 15, you are likely looking at some form of RBBC with any remaining RB. The certainty that Barlow will be the feature RB and will get a lot of carries and goalline work is what makes him valuable. There is obviously risk involved, but it is clearly no greater than the risk associated with many of the RBs likely to be drafted after him.

At worst, Barlow is likely to be the 15th RB taken.

I think he has added value in dynasty leagues compared to redraft leagues. Sure, the 49ers might struggle this year, but they've made a commitment to him as their feature back and he's likely to have the job for at least the next couple years. Meanwhile, D.Davis has similar injury concerns and has a potential threat of Tony Hollings on the roster. Rudi Johnson is a late bloomer that hasn't really proved any more than Barlow at this point, plus Dillon is still on the team.

 
Its laughable that you think its that simple.
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There's certainly no magic involved. It's about ability and opportunity. His production/carry and production/reception have always been solid, and now his touches will increase dramatically. Those of you who choose to pass on Barlow may do so with my blessing, but it's so obvious to me you're missing the boat on this guy...Let's just disagree and watch it play out.
 
Obviously I'm a bit biased, but I have to agree with Bruce here. How can you not be excited about a guy with a 4.7 career yards per carry average who is about to become a true #1 back for his team? I realize that stats can be misleading, but this isn't Troy Hambrick we're talking about. I think anyone who's watched Barlow play can see that much.I think it's a safe bet that Barlow will average at least 18 carries per game as long as he is healthy. While he probably won't match last year's 5.1 YPC, I think 4.4 is a pretty reasonable expectation based on his career stats. Projecting these numbers out as a minimum gives you 288 carries for 1267 yards. That's not bad at all considering that his upside is quite a bit higher. Obviously there's some injury risk, but no more than these guys:Edgerrin James - Has accumulated a big workload throughout the years and has already suffered a torn ACLRicky Williams - Has carried the ball about a million times over the past two seasons and seems to have been a bit worn out last yearJamal Lewis - Has torn his ACL not once, but twice and also has a history of alarming drug incidentsFred Taylor - Has an extensive injury history Domanick Davis - Was considered an injury risk by scouts and didn't even make it through last season despite a fairly low number of carries, missed some of the preseason with an injuryStephen Davis - Has traditionally worn down late in the season and is an age riskMarshall Faulk - Is old and has not been able to stay healthy for a full season latelyI think people who feel like most of these other guys are safer picks than Barlow are deluding themselves. Barlow has proven just about everything a backup can and is about to take the reigns of a traditionally strong offense. If you always wait for a player to prove himself before you commit to him then you're never going to get maximum return on your investments. By the time a player has proven himself thoroughly, his price will have gone up because everyone else will have noticed his success. In order to get guys who significantly outperform their draft positions, you need to take some chances. A 25 year old workhorse back with a 4.7 career YPC average seems like a great player to take a chance on. Let your leaguemates draft Marshall Faulk and laugh when he's out of the league in two years while Barlow is still a top 10 back.

 
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You also have to factor in the other changes to SF's offense, and how it will play on Barlow. Last year, he had Garcia throwing to Owens, making the defenses play more off the line. This year he has Rattay throwing to.... erm, someone...While his carries will certainly increase, I'd expect to see his YPC go down. He'll be a middle of the pack RB.

 
You also have to factor in the other changes to SF's offense, and how it will play on Barlow. Last year, he had Garcia throwing to Owens, making the defenses play more off the line. This year he has Rattay throwing to.... erm, someone...While his carries will certainly increase, I'd expect to see his YPC go down. He'll be a middle of the pack RB.
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And were you making that argument at the beginning of 2003 regarding Tomlinson, Holmes, Jamal Lewis?
 
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