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Partly because it's groupthink, but more likely tied to recency effects. People look at the most recent outlier data and generalize that the outcome will persist over time, especially in the absence of other confounding variables and competing factors. You are not alone in this simple approach. A lot of folks make this type of error in FF and in real life.
Well. If you say so.Le'Veon Bell's scouting ratings are about as relevant as Tom Brady's or Antonio Brown's at this point. It's very clear that they are outdated. Bell dropped the weight and is a totally different guy now. Everyone on this board noticed it and, for the 10th time, vaulted him up their dynasty rankings BEFORE he put up elite production. He has a burst and lateral agility that he never showed as a prospect. If he re-tested at the combine now he would perform much better. And none of that accounts for how overlooked his vision and receiving ability are, much like we can't just ignore how much Tom Brady's knowledge of the game and ability to read the field was overlooked as a prospect.
This is a ridiculous statement. He had 80 receptions last year and outscored RB5 by ONE HUNDRED fantasy points. You could cut his reception total in half and he'd still be comfortably in the top 5. I agree that his receiving numbers will likely regress to the mean some, but he has to lose a LOT of receptions to drop out of the top 5. His rushing numbers were in no way unsustainable. If he can maintain that you could literally cut his receiving numbers all the way down to 40 catches for 400 yards and he'd still be in the top 5, comfortably.You're obsessed with trying to create an argument that's not there. People aren't arguing that situation > talent. They're arguing that you're vastly underrating Bell's talent. Maybe not quite as talented as Gurley but close enough that his other advantages (vision, receiving ability, past production) make up the difference.You're inventing a narrative that isn't there. The reality is that people were blown away with Bell's talent last year, not his production. Again, right out of the gates last year people were WOWing their eyes out watching him run, before the production came along to match. Yet you're content to ignore that and have decided that since he wasn't quick and agile 5 years ago at Michigan State he must not be quick and agile now, just like you must have assumed that since Tom Brady was considered to have an extremely weak arm as a prospect he must have had an extremely weak arm for his entire NFL career.Fat plodder Le'Veon Bell is as dead and gone as noodle armed Tom Brady or slow cutting Antonio Brown. He dropped the weight and got in shape and his burst now gets him through the holes that his elite vision have always seen but that his gut slowed him down too much to get through in time.Stop arguing like this is simply some matter of uber talent vs. average guy in a great situation because the only one you're arguing with about that is yourself.
I thought it was moreso that Bell is like 23, looked fantastic and improved a lot from year one to year two, plus is heavily involved on passing downs.
I think it's valid to bring Richardson into the conversation just for the purpose of having people take a step back and see how highly touted Richardson was then (and for the year before he was drafted). Sometimes people get so caught up in the new and shiny <fill in the blank> that reason flies out the window.
Bell won't be scoring 300 or near that due to a drug problem. And before you say he has no problem anyone driving a car and smoking weed has a major problem.ghostguy123 said:
I'm well aware of the trappings of new/shiny. I wasn't wrong about TR, i honestly didn't find him terribly remarkable (though had no idea he'd be such an epic fail either), but Gurley hits me on a different level. Haven't been struck this much by a RB since AP and Faulk.
This can be applied to vets who fell off the map also. Nicks ring a bell?
Yeah, it's a funny thing with the likes of Josh Gordon, Justin Blackmon, LeVeon Bell, etc. Hard to predict when in the course of their dynasty career they're going to get caught and then clipped again. They never post on FBGs when they're about to do something stupid, they just do it.
Well, so far it IS a one time thing, unlike those other guys who did stupid things about 10 times.
Exaggerate much? An ACL tear is not an "obliteration" of a knee. I think it was Dr. Jene Bramel who noted somewhere that risk of re-injury of ACL in professional athletes is ~2%, which is consistent with what I've seen and heard elsewhere (with higher rates re-injury rates related to non-contact tears versus contact tears).ghostguy123 said:
He's suspended for drug use. That seems like a problem. Maybe not J Gordon or Blackmon level of a problem yet, but still a problem.
Gurley torn ACL, sounds like an injury problem.
Its a problem in the sense that the league doesn't allow it.
No, but half a year ago I wouldn't have thought he was a guy that would get busted the 1st time. It just concerns me because the penalties are steep now. If we have a scenario where Bell gets into trouble again (even if its a Josh Gordon "hey I wasn't doing anything wrong" story), he's on thin ice.
What percentage of players that get caught for marijuana one time end up doing it enough to get suspended for a year or more?
Is he though? And I was under the impression the penalties were actually getting softer than they had been.
That's what I'm worried about. Conduct is a massive openly interpretable umbrella. He has a strike against him now and now anything from a domestic dispute at a McDonald's to "oops I shouldn't have forgotten a firearm in my luggage" to a poor statement or slur that gets a lot of youtube hits can put him into Greg Hardy's neighborhood.
No it isn't an exaggeration. He was not only stupid enough to do an illegal drug but he took it a step further and put people at risk by getting behind a wheel.
Ouch, I wish I cared enough to save this somewhere, but I try not to save crazy things.
As a Gurley owner, I'd love this.
Really?
Clev has a great Oline for running the ball and Gurley would easily move to the lead role and get touches IMO. Even if Clev sucks, he posts great numbers there. I really like that spot.
Where would you rank them against his potential landing spots?
Well owning an average or even a slightly above average RB always comes with the threat of that guy being replaced by a more talented back that is brought in. Zach Stacy, just last year, was a good example of this.
Agreed. Gurley running behind one of the better OL's in the league with as much opportunity as a rookie could ask for? Yes, please!
Why? You got some video footage those cops in Texas couldn't find? LOL.
Does the coaching staff name a new starter every quarter like he did last year? That is the real concern.
Not if he has a good RB
If they draft Gurley, no.
He failed a test and blamed it on second hand marijuana smoke. I think he failed a test in college too. Someone on this board had a funny story about waiting in line at this store with about 5 other people... guy up at the counter is buying every kind of blunt wrap they have and checking them out. Eventually gets the ones he wants, walks out of the store into Josh Gordon's camouflage painted Porsche:
