He could’ve been hurt last year and will be better with 7 months off. Not saying will happen but is possible.
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[Dynasty] Todd Gurley (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter tdmills
- Start date
dkp993
Footballguy
He did. Week one, played through it and it got progressively worse. Then likely really got hurt again in the Chiefs game, that one was a bad hit that at the time had me thinking his season was done. Waldman recently has gone as far a saying he likely sustained some ligament damage from that hit (if I remember correctly he thinks it was PCL).
My guess is it’s both. His knee clearly has some arthritis that will shorten his career but he also took some hits last year that likely did some damage. He carries some risk for sure but the upside is enormous and if he get through the season without taking one of those bad knee hits I’m betting he has a top 5 RB year still.
Andrew74
Footballguy
I remember that play in the chief’s game. I honestly thought he’d blew out his knee. During the game and the week after I kept waiting for the shoe to drop.
I feel the same as you on his outlook.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
joey
Footballguy
Yeah, I thought it was more of an ankle twister than a knee injury (if I recall, his ankle/foot got twisted under the tackler as he hit the ground) but either way, that moment was a critical one that changed the rest of the season for Gurley and the Rams.
TripItUp
Footballguy
Agreed. He's a complete wildcard. He is a tough guy and a competitor. But did we get a sneak preview of 2019 at the end of 2018? I ain't buying McVay's coach speak. In LA's final 7 games (which includes the postseason), Gurley played in 5 of them, averaging 10.6 carries. In his first 12 games, he averaged 19.4 carries. Todd is a TD machine, but there is no way he can return value with 10 carries a game, unless he is either drafted much later than his ADP, or becomes a pass-catching RB like Kamara. I wouldn't buy a new car without test driving it, and I won't draft Gurley at his ADP without seeing for myself. It's a catch-22 as we all know, because just like religion, you're gonna have to have faith without proof.
As for his off-season weight loss to save his knees, he was already one of the lightest for a workhorse his size (6'1" and low 220's). I can see why he would want to lose weight to save his knees, but it's not a good sign for continued volume. I ask myself, why exactly did they draft Darrell Henderson, the 3rd overall RB? And why did they trade the 94th and 99th picks to move up to 70th? Why would a team be so aggressive to nab an early RB if they already have their expected workhorse getting 300 touches? Actions speak louder than words.
For me, I will draft a safe guy like Leonard Fournette.
dkp993
Footballguy
Yeah at least with a guy like Fournette you know he’s going to get hurt. Lol.Agreed. He's a complete wildcard. He is a tough guy and a competitor. But did we get a sneak preview of 2019 at the end of 2018? I ain't buying McVay's coach speak. In LA's final 7 games (which includes the postseason), Gurley played in 5 of them, averaging 10.6 carries. In his first 12 games, he averaged 19.4 carries. Todd is a TD machine, but there is no way he can return value with 10 carries a game, unless he is either drafted much later than his ADP, or becomes a pass-catching RB like Kamara. I wouldn't buy a new car without test driving it, and I won't draft Gurley at his ADP without seeing for myself. It's a catch-22 as we all know, because just like religion, you're gonna have to have faith without proof.
As for his off-season weight loss to save his knees, he was already one of the lightest for a workhorse his size (6'1" and low 220's). I can see why he would want to lose weight to save his knees, but it's not a good sign for continued volume. I ask myself, why exactly did they draft Darrell Henderson, the 3rd overall RB? And why did they trade the 94th and 99th picks to move up to 70th? Why would a team be so aggressive to nab an early RB if they already have their expected workhorse getting 300 touches? Actions speak louder than words.
For me, I will draft a safe guy like Leonard Fournette.
simey
Footballguy
For one, I think they realize they made a mistake not giving Gurley more breathers in the past. Also, they have wanted a change-of-pace guy, and hoped Lance Dunbar would be that guy, but he couldn't stay healthy. They are hoping Henderson will be that guy. They love to run the ball, and having versatility in your backfield is a plus. If Gurley's knee gets aggravated, Brown can handle his duties, and meanwhile Henderson can play his part as the change-of-pace RB. Who knows if Henderson will even acclimate well into the NFL, but moving up in the draft to get that c-o-p guy they feel they have been looking for wasn't necessarily a red flag for Gurley.
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I guess we differ just a little bit, because I see Henderson as a possible workhorse with good receiving chops. He isn't just a CoP, he has the package to be a 3-down back. He is a pretty solid guy, but I don't know his exact height and weight. I have seen either 5'8" or 5'9" and 200 to 208. I would expect him to add a few more pounds. You may be right though - perhaps they jumped up because they are not so confident in Malcolm Brown as a backup.simey said:
ChuckLiddell
Footballguy
I think Brown is the backup, and Henderson is the COP. If Gurley misses time, I suspect something like a 60/40 split for Brown. Unless Henderson REALLY looks special on the field (which is clearly a possibility - see Alvin Kamara who I also think was viewed as a COP type). If you look at his measurables, the comps are mostlyCOP backs. One of Browns comps is Gurley.
Henderson - https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/darrell-henderson
Brown - https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/malcolm-brown
Here is Kamara just for comparison's sake. Has some size on Henderson, and he is still on the smaller side for HBs.
https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/alvin-kamara
dkp993
Footballguy
simey said:
Having obsessively followed the Rams most of my life (ie reading every once of material I can find) I think it’s a bit of both.
McVay has always wanted a strong change of pace guy for his offense and has just missed out on the guys he’s wanted to draft the past 2 years. But it’s also clear there something there with Gurley’s knee and they can’t bank on the amount of reps they’ve gotten in the past. So with both of those factors (missing out on their guys in the draft and Gurley’s issue) they made sure that they secured Henderson this year.
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
I think at this point they are going to severely manage his workload to get all they can out of that contract.
LakeCowboy
Footballguy
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
More likely to lose than win. Unless we are being misled about his knee, I don't see any way it gets better, and I doubt it can withstand a lot of touches every week. If it could, he would have been used more last winter when they were playing to get to and then win the freaking Super Bowl.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yeah - about to draft a start-up dynasty league & Gurley is basically on my DND list. I just don’t trust the knee, and the Rams have some depth at the position.
He may well stay on the field all year. But for that to happen I can’t imagine he’ll be a 25+ touch guy. More like a 12-15 touch guy. I could see the Rams managing his workload specifically to avoid what happened down the stretch last season.
And that makes him unworthy of his draft selection/auction value.
Hey, never say never, and if he’s a steep enough discount I’ll throw a bid his way, but I’m pretty sure one of the other 11 teams will easily outbid me.
dipandglide
Footballguy
Maybe he was hurt more than what the Rams led on? That part should be clear. It should also be clear that his workload will be reduced. Still, 60-75% Gurley for 2-3 years is nice. I’m not buying this talk of him being a shell of himself this year and for the forceable future.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
It's inevitable that in nearly draft, someone will draft him way higher than I would dream of, and in nearly auction, someone will spend way more than I would. There is always that one person who wants to catch lightning in case Gurley's knee magically holds up well enough to be a (nearly) every week beast again.
I can see a scenario where his knee feels good one week and he gets a lot of touches, and then the next week, it doesn't feel so good and his touches are limited, but the Rams are never going to let on what is what, so it'll likely be a case of taking the bad with the good.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Seemed pretty clear watching him that he injured it in-season vs KC. He wasn't ever the same after that --- but he never really had a chance to get healthy.
We'll see. My gut is that he gets 16-18 touches per week including goal line work.
We'll see. My gut is that he gets 16-18 touches per week including goal line work.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
He got injured in week 11 and played the next 4 weeks straight. None of us have any idea how long that injury - if there was one - typically would require to heal fully.
im curious if he moves back up ADP ranks by end of next month. would love to draft him in the 2nd round. it would be stealing. of course there is risk but you handcuff the backup RB to mitigate... and you still probably get decent fantasy production out of the backup in that offense
Manster
Footballguy
Elevencents
Footballguy
Getting really tempted to pull the trigger at pick #13 if he is there. Should have Kamara and another mid level RB2 to cover my losses if he falters. But it’s hard not to draft him when looking at his numbers last year. He scored 160 more points than Mixon which is who I would draft otherwise.
1) Do you think anything has changed between 2018 and 2019?
2) Which of these players do you think has the higher chance of producing the same numbers as last year? Better numbers?
1- gurley's knee, mixon still a great talent on a bad team
2 -mixon, but i think theres a decent chance gurley drops off from last year and still significantly outproduces mixon this year
kutta
Footballguy
How do you figure you'll have Kamara and still be picking at pick 13? Is this a keeper league?
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Maybe it's an 8 man league? That would be Kamara at 4 and the 13th pick would be his second round. Not too many 8 team leagues though.
joey
Footballguy
Elevencents
Footballguy
Elevencents
Footballguy
With Gurley being pretty much absent in the playoffs I’m sure the Rams will approach his use much differently this season. Especially with the prospective talent of Henderson.
dkp993
Footballguy
Good article. Addresses what I and a few other have been saying about his potential even with a reduced workload.
https://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=2019-todd-gurley-to-knee-or-not-to-knee
https://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=2019-todd-gurley-to-knee-or-not-to-knee
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I think he’s still a back end of the 1st round player for snake drafts.
Not saying he’ll live up to that value, but IMO no one’s gonna let him slip past the turn. If I’m at 12 and grab a guy I like, Gurley is a great upside pick, even if you’re overpaying slightly.
Actual value I put him mid-second, maybe even 2.10-ish. Upside, but significant risk. Sure, he’s a threat to score from anywhere but he’s gotta get the touches for that to happen.
Articles I’ve read talk him up as a value because even with a reduced workload he can be effective - and while that’s true, and his numbers for the season may look low end RB1, I’m betting his inconsistency is going to be frustrating to shareholders.
likely some big swings week to week. The thing about high touch RBs is that their floor is high for volume. First half of last year he was just a locked and loaded beast every week.
Without the volume, Gurley becomes far riskier as a weekly plug & play, and no guarantee he gets GL carries.
So yeah - I think ADP will be 1.09-1.12 when we get closer to the season, and I doubt he’d get far into the 2nd if he falls there at all. Stranger things have happened though.
Dez
Footballguy
Except I have done over 30 real drafts already and Gurley has slipped to the 3rd round a few times and a lot of times went in the mid to late 2nd.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
ws he worth dynasty? Thinking of offering a 1st and some mid tier player.
I can't see any self-respecting Gurley owner accepting that. Maybe if you can convince him the sky is falling.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Unless it’s a lock top 3 pick (and even if it is) I think you’d need to do better than that.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
1. You’ve done 30+ real drafts before Aug 1st?Dez said:
That seems like...a lot. Anyway....2. I said “as we get closer to the season. It’s difficult for me to see Gurley’s ADP that low after a pre-season with no set-backs & where reports about his knee have been positive.
Regardless, the drafts YOU have been in (even 30+ of them) are purely anecdotal & not necessarily relevant to what Gurley’s ADP will be.
Right now, ADP calculator has Gurley at 14th overall. That’s consistent with what I expected to see. https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp
And in my leagues, where league managers are sharks who have all been playing for decades, I seriously doubt he’d make it past the turn. As mentioned - I’m low on Gurley this year, but if I’m sitting 12, he’s a solid upside 2nd pick I’d consider.
best of luck in your leagues. Should be easy money what with everyone letting a dude with an ADP of 14 slide to the 30s.
-jb-
Footballguy
Another article that quotes past performances and medical staff members...and comes up with the exact opposite take.
https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/2019-fantasy-football-draft-prep-will-todd-gurleys-knee-injury-trip-up-your-season/
Bigboy10182000
Footballguy
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
I’m not sure how much looking at historical data of all backs who reached 1500/10 or 1200/8 is applicable to Gurley. A lot good but not great backs put up 1500 YFS and we’ve seen plenty of mediocre RBs in the right situation post 1200. Gurley is a generational talent. As long as he can manage the pain, he should still be a TD machine who is very active in the passing game on 16-19 touches per game.
