EBF
Footballguy
I probably won't do this for every position, but I thought I'd take a stab at an early set of dynasty QB rankings for 2008:
1. Tom Brady - His value will probably never be higher and it's possible that it will decrease considerably if Moss departs or declines at some point in the next year or two. But you really can't argue with a superstar coming off a season in which he threw 50 TDs and almost 5,000 yards. Those are video game numbers.
2. Peyton Manning - Even in a "quiet" year Peyton had 4,000+ yards and 30+ TDs. He's been more consistent than Brady and is probably a safer bet to remain an elite passer for the next 4-5 years.
3. Tony Romo - What scares me here is the inevitable decline of TO. What happens when Owens is finished? Crayton scares no one and Romo's value will almost certainly dip a little bit unless the Cowboys can land someone like Fitzgerald or Boldin to fill the void. That said, Jerry Jones is a solid owner and I'm sure he won't stand pat and allow his offense to sputter. So for now Romo belongs at QB3 even though he comes with a little more risk than the other elite dynasty QBs.
4. Ben Roethlisberger - I was tempted to rank him ahead of Romo, but his low number of passing attempts remains a little bit of a concern. Roethlisberger finished second in the NFL in passer rating and once again posted a yards per attempt average that ranks him among the best in the league (right up there with Brady, Favre, and Manning). At worst he should be a top 6-8 type QB for the forseeable future and he could even vault up into the elite ranks if he starts throwing it 470+ times per season.
5. Carson Palmer - For a while it looked like Palmer was going to become the next great one, but his QB rating has steadily dipped over the past two seasons since his career year in 2005. Which Palmer is the real one? The guy who threw 32 TDs in 2005 with a QB rating of 101.1 or the guy who threw 20 INTs last season? Palmer should still be considered a solid QB1 in most dynasty leagues, but it now looks like there's a realistic possibility that he's not quite the player we thought he was.
6. Matt Hasselbeck - What you see is what you get with Matt Hasselbeck. He's never going to be a guy who posts monster numbers and leads your FF team to a championship, but he's a solid performer who will play well enough to give you a chance to win most weeks.
7. Drew Brees - Brees finished with solid numbers in 2007, but I think his value is a little inflated since he threw the ball 200 more times than guys like Ben Roethlisberger and Jay Cutler. He should remain a quality QB1 going forward, but is a notch below some of the other young passers in terms of raw talent and upside.
8. Donovan McNabb - McNabb has struggled with injuries over the past few years and he doesn't have a great supporting cast to work with, but he's been a solid FF QB for a long time and I expect him to remain productive for several years.
9. Marc Bulger -Wow, what happened here? The wheels fell off this season and Bulger posted a pitiful 70.3 passer rating that's almost 20 points below his career average. I expect him to eventually bounce back. On the downside, the Rams are a runaway train with an uncertain future.
10. Jay Cutler - Cutler has quietly performed very well for the Broncos in his first two seasons. His 88.1 QB rating is very good for a young QB in his first full season as a starter. Right now he's a fringe FF starter who seems better suited as a dynasty backup with top 5-6 upside. He has breakout potential and could be much higher on most lists at this time next year.
11. David Garrard - Garrard is one of the most interesting dynasty QBs right now. He had a phenomenal year in 2007, finishing third in the NFL in QB rating with a solid yards per attempt average of 7.7 and a ridiculous TD:INT ratio of 6:1. When you look at points per week, he was nearly a top 10 QB last season despite the fact that he threw the ball half as many times as Drew Brees. He is flying under the radar right now, but if he continues to put up these kind of stats and starts throwing the ball a little more often then he could soon become a top 5-6 type. At the same time, Jacksonville looks like a run-first team and it remains unclear whether or not Garrard will ever be unleashed.
12. Matt Schaub - Schaub posted solid numbers in his first year as a starter. Houston looks like a team headed in the right direction and I think Schaub could eventually rise up to the level of someone like Matt Hasselbeck.
13. Vince Young - Vince Young is a talented player with upside, but all the excuses in the world can't erase his pitiful passing statistics. I think he should be viewed as an intriguing curiosity who probably won't ever give you the kind of passing numbers that it takes to make a great FF QB. The comparisons to Vick really don't seem that far-fetched when you consider the playing style and FF value of both players.
14. Derek Anderson - Put me in the camp that feels Anderson is overrated and destined to regress. You have to give him some credit for putting up solid stats in his first full year as a starter, but I was never impressed with his play and feel like his success was largely a result of his supporting cast and system. There's a chance that he'll actually improve and become a true franchise QB, but right now he's a sell high.
15. Eli Manning - Eli Manning is a bit of an enigma. He looks great at times and terrible at others. Unless things suddenly "click" for him, he's probably going to remain a solid backup in FF leagues who teases you with his streakiness.
16. Brett Favre - Favre had a great season in 2007, but how much longer can he really keep it up? He looked like he was finished as recently as two years ago. So while he might give you good numbers for another year or two, you also have to think the dropoff is imminent. His best value in dynasty leagues is as a temporary starter while you groom someone like Cutler or Schaub to take over in a year or two.
17. Matt Leinart - Leinart is probably going to be a bust, but he has a golden opportunity in Arizona and enough upside to warrant a gamble in this range.
18. Philip Rivers - Rivers is kind of like a modern day Troy Aikman. He doesn't have much upside in FF leagues and should be viewed as a backup who could fill-in and give you decent stats in a pinch.
19. Brady Quinn - First round QBs are always a crapshoot, but Quinn's performance at Notre Dame is impressive when you consider how bad the team was after he left. He has all of the physical tools needed to be a professional QB and will eventually get a chance to start. He's a good guy to target as a throw-in or cheap acquisition in dynasty leagues.
20. Trent Edwards - Buffalo looks like it's going to be a QB wasteland for the next few seasons, but Edwards showed enough flashes as a rookie to warrant mild optimism. Keep a close eye on his performance in 2008, as I think that will be a critical barometer towards gauging whether or not he's a true franchise QB or just another stop-gap solution.
OTHERS:
Jason Campbell -
Jamarcus Russell - Jamarcus Bust-ell. I don't get any good vibes from this guy on or off the field.
Aaron Rodgers - He'll be starting within two years. Good buy low. He's interchangeable with guys like Edwards and Quinn.
Jake Delhomme - Strictly a short-term backup.
Kevin Kolb - Another promising unknown who should get a chance some day.
Tarvaris Jackson - Showed some signs of life, but still has a long way to go.
Drew Stanton - See: Kevin Kolb
CONCLUSION:
Right now it looks like Brady and Manning are clearly the two guys to own. There's a pretty steep dropoff after those two, while the gap between the guys ranked 3-10 isn't all that huge. The most interesting QBs right now are Garrard, Schaub, and Cutler. They've all shown hints of becoming good FF QBs. I recommend drafting them as backups and hoping for the best. Lower in the rankings, there's another cluster of good risk vs. reward guys like Brady Quinn, Trent Edwards, Kevin Kolb, and Aaron Rodgers. I figure 1-2 of those guys will step up eventually.
1. Tom Brady - His value will probably never be higher and it's possible that it will decrease considerably if Moss departs or declines at some point in the next year or two. But you really can't argue with a superstar coming off a season in which he threw 50 TDs and almost 5,000 yards. Those are video game numbers.
2. Peyton Manning - Even in a "quiet" year Peyton had 4,000+ yards and 30+ TDs. He's been more consistent than Brady and is probably a safer bet to remain an elite passer for the next 4-5 years.
3. Tony Romo - What scares me here is the inevitable decline of TO. What happens when Owens is finished? Crayton scares no one and Romo's value will almost certainly dip a little bit unless the Cowboys can land someone like Fitzgerald or Boldin to fill the void. That said, Jerry Jones is a solid owner and I'm sure he won't stand pat and allow his offense to sputter. So for now Romo belongs at QB3 even though he comes with a little more risk than the other elite dynasty QBs.
4. Ben Roethlisberger - I was tempted to rank him ahead of Romo, but his low number of passing attempts remains a little bit of a concern. Roethlisberger finished second in the NFL in passer rating and once again posted a yards per attempt average that ranks him among the best in the league (right up there with Brady, Favre, and Manning). At worst he should be a top 6-8 type QB for the forseeable future and he could even vault up into the elite ranks if he starts throwing it 470+ times per season.
5. Carson Palmer - For a while it looked like Palmer was going to become the next great one, but his QB rating has steadily dipped over the past two seasons since his career year in 2005. Which Palmer is the real one? The guy who threw 32 TDs in 2005 with a QB rating of 101.1 or the guy who threw 20 INTs last season? Palmer should still be considered a solid QB1 in most dynasty leagues, but it now looks like there's a realistic possibility that he's not quite the player we thought he was.
6. Matt Hasselbeck - What you see is what you get with Matt Hasselbeck. He's never going to be a guy who posts monster numbers and leads your FF team to a championship, but he's a solid performer who will play well enough to give you a chance to win most weeks.
7. Drew Brees - Brees finished with solid numbers in 2007, but I think his value is a little inflated since he threw the ball 200 more times than guys like Ben Roethlisberger and Jay Cutler. He should remain a quality QB1 going forward, but is a notch below some of the other young passers in terms of raw talent and upside.
8. Donovan McNabb - McNabb has struggled with injuries over the past few years and he doesn't have a great supporting cast to work with, but he's been a solid FF QB for a long time and I expect him to remain productive for several years.
9. Marc Bulger -Wow, what happened here? The wheels fell off this season and Bulger posted a pitiful 70.3 passer rating that's almost 20 points below his career average. I expect him to eventually bounce back. On the downside, the Rams are a runaway train with an uncertain future.
10. Jay Cutler - Cutler has quietly performed very well for the Broncos in his first two seasons. His 88.1 QB rating is very good for a young QB in his first full season as a starter. Right now he's a fringe FF starter who seems better suited as a dynasty backup with top 5-6 upside. He has breakout potential and could be much higher on most lists at this time next year.
11. David Garrard - Garrard is one of the most interesting dynasty QBs right now. He had a phenomenal year in 2007, finishing third in the NFL in QB rating with a solid yards per attempt average of 7.7 and a ridiculous TD:INT ratio of 6:1. When you look at points per week, he was nearly a top 10 QB last season despite the fact that he threw the ball half as many times as Drew Brees. He is flying under the radar right now, but if he continues to put up these kind of stats and starts throwing the ball a little more often then he could soon become a top 5-6 type. At the same time, Jacksonville looks like a run-first team and it remains unclear whether or not Garrard will ever be unleashed.
12. Matt Schaub - Schaub posted solid numbers in his first year as a starter. Houston looks like a team headed in the right direction and I think Schaub could eventually rise up to the level of someone like Matt Hasselbeck.
13. Vince Young - Vince Young is a talented player with upside, but all the excuses in the world can't erase his pitiful passing statistics. I think he should be viewed as an intriguing curiosity who probably won't ever give you the kind of passing numbers that it takes to make a great FF QB. The comparisons to Vick really don't seem that far-fetched when you consider the playing style and FF value of both players.
14. Derek Anderson - Put me in the camp that feels Anderson is overrated and destined to regress. You have to give him some credit for putting up solid stats in his first full year as a starter, but I was never impressed with his play and feel like his success was largely a result of his supporting cast and system. There's a chance that he'll actually improve and become a true franchise QB, but right now he's a sell high.
15. Eli Manning - Eli Manning is a bit of an enigma. He looks great at times and terrible at others. Unless things suddenly "click" for him, he's probably going to remain a solid backup in FF leagues who teases you with his streakiness.
16. Brett Favre - Favre had a great season in 2007, but how much longer can he really keep it up? He looked like he was finished as recently as two years ago. So while he might give you good numbers for another year or two, you also have to think the dropoff is imminent. His best value in dynasty leagues is as a temporary starter while you groom someone like Cutler or Schaub to take over in a year or two.
17. Matt Leinart - Leinart is probably going to be a bust, but he has a golden opportunity in Arizona and enough upside to warrant a gamble in this range.
18. Philip Rivers - Rivers is kind of like a modern day Troy Aikman. He doesn't have much upside in FF leagues and should be viewed as a backup who could fill-in and give you decent stats in a pinch.
19. Brady Quinn - First round QBs are always a crapshoot, but Quinn's performance at Notre Dame is impressive when you consider how bad the team was after he left. He has all of the physical tools needed to be a professional QB and will eventually get a chance to start. He's a good guy to target as a throw-in or cheap acquisition in dynasty leagues.
20. Trent Edwards - Buffalo looks like it's going to be a QB wasteland for the next few seasons, but Edwards showed enough flashes as a rookie to warrant mild optimism. Keep a close eye on his performance in 2008, as I think that will be a critical barometer towards gauging whether or not he's a true franchise QB or just another stop-gap solution.
OTHERS:
Jason Campbell -
Jamarcus Russell - Jamarcus Bust-ell. I don't get any good vibes from this guy on or off the field.
Aaron Rodgers - He'll be starting within two years. Good buy low. He's interchangeable with guys like Edwards and Quinn.
Jake Delhomme - Strictly a short-term backup.
Kevin Kolb - Another promising unknown who should get a chance some day.
Tarvaris Jackson - Showed some signs of life, but still has a long way to go.
Drew Stanton - See: Kevin Kolb
CONCLUSION:
Right now it looks like Brady and Manning are clearly the two guys to own. There's a pretty steep dropoff after those two, while the gap between the guys ranked 3-10 isn't all that huge. The most interesting QBs right now are Garrard, Schaub, and Cutler. They've all shown hints of becoming good FF QBs. I recommend drafting them as backups and hoping for the best. Lower in the rankings, there's another cluster of good risk vs. reward guys like Brady Quinn, Trent Edwards, Kevin Kolb, and Aaron Rodgers. I figure 1-2 of those guys will step up eventually.
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It's tough to justify ranking him any higher than 14-15 at this point. Right now he's just another guy with potential and a lot of question marks.
Wow. It's like I posted before I did. As I was reading this thread I had mentally picked out 3 things I was going to reply about - not only did you hit all 3, but said almsot exactly what I was going to (although you used stats to back up your VY point - it's early, I was just going to make the general point...I don't do math in the AM.)Great post, as usual SSOG. It's people like you and EBF that make these boards so chock full 'o knowledge.
After the elite QBs, why not take a risk with Young and ensure you get another, somewhat safer bet? I would love to get Young as the 11th QB and Garrard as the 16th. (FWIW, Garrard should be upgraded)
After the elite QBs, why not take a risk with Young and ensure you get another, somewhat safer bet? I would love to get Young as the 11th QB and Garrard as the 16th. (FWIW, Garrard should be upgraded)
After the elite QBs, why not take a risk with Young and ensure you get another, somewhat safer bet? I would love to get Young as the 11th QB and Garrard as the 16th. (FWIW, Garrard should be upgraded)
I have to say Kolb over Edwards is a bit troubling. Edwards looked just as good as many recent rookie QBs (Leinart, Young, etc) and had a decent completion % and interception %. I'm not saying he'll be a top 12 guy, but I think he showed enough as a rookie to warrant consideration over a 2nd rounder who hasn't played yet.
