[DYNASTY] Top 20 QB rankings (1 Viewer)

[SSOG]

I've been wrong about QBs before and I'm sure all be wrong again in the future, but I think the tea leaves favor Quinn and I would rather own him than Russell if given the choice. That's what it comes down to for me.

Another big point for me is that, going into his Junior season, a lot of very smart people didn't know whether Russell was even going to be the starter on his own team. Pair that with his struggles against every decent defense he faced in college, and I've always felt that Russell had a lot of Kyle Boller in him- drafted high not because of what he did on the field, but because he could hit the goal post on his knees from the 40 yard line.

 

[gianmarco]

Vince Young at #11 is comical. Um, 9 TD's.

In a dynasty league, who wants a QB who scores 9 passing TD's. I could care less about any rushing TD's as those come and go. No QB consistently puts up a lot of rushing TD's. When Brett Favre had Driver and nothing for a few years (including Ferguson on the other side dropping passes and allowing INT's when the ball was throw his way), Favre put up 20+ TD's a year. Only last year did Favre not throw 20 and he still managed 18 with a inexperienced team.

Eli Manning has outplayed Young FFwise the past 2 years yet is behind him? What is the fascination with this bum?????

Of course you won't, but you should read this post by SSOG.http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...t&p=8013079

Important point being this quoted part:



"Here's the list of #1 fantasy QBs every year since 1987: Cunningham, Cunningham, Majkowski, Cunningham, Moon, Young, Young, Young, Favre, Favre, Favre, Young, Warner, Culpepper, Warner, Culpepper, Culpepper, Culpepper, Palmer, Manning, Brady.

Cunningham, Young, and Culpepper account for more than half of those first-place finishes all by themselves.................

If you want to be a fantasy uberstud, you either need to threaten 40 TD passes (and hope the rest of the league doesn't do the same), or else you need to be very mobile. It is a SIGNIFICANT competitive advantage."

I couldn't agree more. The amount of #1 fantasy QB's that are running QBs is insane. It doesn't mean that every running QB is going to do it, but it's the reason why Young deserves the higher ranking on potential alone compared to others who are ranked according to potential.

 

[EBF]

I've been wrong about QBs before and I'm sure all be wrong again in the future, but I think the tea leaves favor Quinn and I would rather own him than Russell if given the choice. That's what it comes down to for me.

Another big point for me is that, going into his Junior season, a lot of very smart people didn't know whether Russell was even going to be the starter on his own team. Pair that with his struggles against every decent defense he faced in college, and I've always felt that Russell had a lot of Kyle Boller in him- drafted high not because of what he did on the field, but because he could hit the goal post on his knees from the 40 yard line.

Yea, I get that vibe too. Then again, I felt the same way about Palmer. I feel like a have a pretty good handle on scouting RBs and I think I do a decent job with WRs, but even the guys who do this for a living aren't very good at evaluating QBs. You never really know until you know.

 

[FavreCo]

Vince Young at #11 is comical. Um, 9 TD's.

In a dynasty league, who wants a QB who scores 9 passing TD's. I could care less about any rushing TD's as those come and go. No QB consistently puts up a lot of rushing TD's. When Brett Favre had Driver and nothing for a few years (including Ferguson on the other side dropping passes and allowing INT's when the ball was throw his way), Favre put up 20+ TD's a year. Only last year did Favre not throw 20 and he still managed 18 with a inexperienced team.

Eli Manning has outplayed Young FFwise the past 2 years yet is behind him? What is the fascination with this bum?????

Of course you won't, but you should read this post by SSOG.http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...t&p=8013079

Important point being this quoted part:



"Here's the list of #1 fantasy QBs every year since 1987: Cunningham, Cunningham, Majkowski, Cunningham, Moon, Young, Young, Young, Favre, Favre, Favre, Young, Warner, Culpepper, Warner, Culpepper, Culpepper, Culpepper, Palmer, Manning, Brady.

Cunningham, Young, and Culpepper account for more than half of those first-place finishes all by themselves.................

If you want to be a fantasy uberstud, you either need to threaten 40 TD passes (and hope the rest of the league doesn't do the same), or else you need to be very mobile. It is a SIGNIFICANT competitive advantage."

I couldn't agree more. The amount of #1 fantasy QB's that are running QBs is insane. It doesn't mean that every running QB is going to do it, but it's the reason why Young deserves the higher ranking on potential alone compared to others who are ranked according to potential.

Running QB that blew chunks: Vick. Running QB similar in passing ability to Vick: Vince Young. End of story. In a dynasty format, you want a QB that will be around year after year. You don't want a novelty like Vick or Young. Sure, if a QB can run in TD's AND throw the ball (Steve Young, Cunningham, Culpepper) that puts him up there. Where you miss the boat is that Vince Young can't pass a football. You will find that out eventually when they sign a big name WR. The sooner the better to expose this hack.

 

[Biabreakable]

The amount of #1 fantasy QB's that are running QBs is insane. It doesn't mean that every running QB is going to do it, but it's the reason why Young deserves the higher ranking on potential alone compared to others who are ranked according to potential.

I do agree with this that Young has more upside than other unknown developing QBs because of what he has shown as a runner playing QB.However I disagree with the premise that Young has shown himself to have the potential of these #1 QBs cited who were also running QBs.Steve Young had Jerry Rice and Terrell Owens and was a great passing QB in a offense that has now influenced how every team in the league plays.Culpepper had Randy Moss and Chris Carter in a record setting passing offense.Cunningham's early years were played in a different era of football than what is played now. Defenses were allowed to do more in those days and other competing QBs were not throwing the ball as effectivly as they are now. This gave Cunningham a bigger advantage being a dual threat QB than it would today. Philly did have Chris Carter, Keith Jackson (elite TE of the time).Bottom line is that when looking at these FF giants I don't think it is useful or reasonable to ignore how good they were as passing QBs and the complimentary weapons they had available to them in great offenses of their times. Vince Young has not shown himself to be that caliber of player as a passer to be compared to them. And the Titans offense/team philosophy is not comparable to any of those offenses either. The Titans are a conservative smash mouth run 1st team that wins by playing good defense. That is not going to change as long as Fisher is the coach. And there is no reason to expect VY to suddenly explode and throw for the great numbers that CPep and Young did when they dominated the QB position in FF.You maybe could compare him to Cunningham's early years as a hopeful expectation. However the game has changed since then and Cunningham would not be so high in EOY stats compared to the QBs of today. Besides the fact that the Titans do not have the weapons Cunningham had at his disposal during that time either.You need to look at the big picture. Comparing VY situation to these prolific offenses makes no sense. A better comparison is McNair or Kordell Stewart based off of what VY has shown so far.

 

[got_nugs]

Well done. I either agree with each or at least see the logic.

The only minor tweaks I would make is to drop Quinn and Edwards from the top 20 and add TJackson and Campbell.

Campbell has been in the league for three years and has failed to distinguish himself. He hasn't been a horrible bust, but he hasn't shown anything that would lead you to believe he has a bright future in FF. It's not a good sign that the Redskin offense got an immediate shot in the arm when Todd Collins took over. Jackson has some potential, but I can't see myself giving up Quinn or Edwards for him. He's the exact same thing he was when he came into the league: a raw athlete who may or may not ever develop into a competent pro passer.

Campbell only started 20 games, has a cannon arm, makes smart decisions for a 1 full year starter. A bust? He's outscored your boy Rivers during the 20 games he started, arguably with less surrounding talent at the skill positions. Pretty good list, just don't see the logic in Brady Quinn being ranked over JC...and I definately wouldn't be so quick to use the word bust in describing Campbell. Yet. Thanks for putting this list out there to be debated.

 

[gianmarco]

Running QB that blew chunks: Vick.

Vick 2002 finish -- 3rdVick 2003 finish -- injured in preseason and did not playVick 2004 finish -- 12thVick 2005 finish -- 10thVick 2006 finish -- 4thThree top 10 finishes out of 4 yrs he played, two of those top 4 finishes. Yeah, he blew chunks. And you wonder why you often get disregarded here.

 

[EBF]

Well done. I either agree with each or at least see the logic.

The only minor tweaks I would make is to drop Quinn and Edwards from the top 20 and add TJackson and Campbell.

Campbell has been in the league for three years and has failed to distinguish himself. He hasn't been a horrible bust, but he hasn't shown anything that would lead you to believe he has a bright future in FF. It's not a good sign that the Redskin offense got an immediate shot in the arm when Todd Collins took over. Jackson has some potential, but I can't see myself giving up Quinn or Edwards for him. He's the exact same thing he was when he came into the league: a raw athlete who may or may not ever develop into a competent pro passer.

Campbell only started 20 games, has a cannon arm, makes smart decisions for a 1 full year starter. A bust? He's outscored your boy Rivers during the 20 games he started, arguably with less surrounding talent at the skill positions. Pretty good list, just don't see the logic in Brady Quinn being ranked over JC...and I definately wouldn't be so quick to use the word bust in describing Campbell. Yet. Thanks for putting this list out there to be debated.

I didn't call Campbell a bust, but his numbers are completely pedestrian. He had a 77.6 QB rating, a 6.5 yards per attempt average, and a TD:INT ratio barely higher than 1:1. He did not have an impressive season and has done nothing statistically to warrant optimism.The reason I prefer Quinn is because I'd generally rather have a promising unknown quantity over a boring known quantity. As of right now there's no reason to believe that Jason Campbell will ever be a QB who helps you win your FF league. And while we don't know much about Quinn, at least he *might* be a guy who can help you win.

Mediocre veterans are poison in dynasty leagues.

 

[got_nugs]

Well done. I either agree with each or at least see the logic.

The only minor tweaks I would make is to drop Quinn and Edwards from the top 20 and add TJackson and Campbell.

Campbell has been in the league for three years and has failed to distinguish himself. He hasn't been a horrible bust, but he hasn't shown anything that would lead you to believe he has a bright future in FF. It's not a good sign that the Redskin offense got an immediate shot in the arm when Todd Collins took over. Jackson has some potential, but I can't see myself giving up Quinn or Edwards for him. He's the exact same thing he was when he came into the league: a raw athlete who may or may not ever develop into a competent pro passer.

Campbell only started 20 games, has a cannon arm, makes smart decisions for a 1 full year starter. A bust? He's outscored your boy Rivers during the 20 games he started, arguably with less surrounding talent at the skill positions. Pretty good list, just don't see the logic in Brady Quinn being ranked over JC...and I definately wouldn't be so quick to use the word bust in describing Campbell. Yet. Thanks for putting this list out there to be debated.

I didn't call Campbell a bust, but his numbers are completely pedestrian. He had a 77.6 QB rating, a 6.5 yards per attempt average, and a TD:INT ratio barely higher than 1:1. He did not have an impressive season and has done nothing statistically to warrant optimism.The reason I prefer Quinn is because I'd generally rather have a promising unknown quantity over a boring known quantity. As of right now there's no reason to believe that Jason Campbell will ever be a QB who helps you win your FF league. And while we don't know much about Quinn, at least he *might* be a guy who can help you win.

Mediocre veterans are poison in dynasty leagues.

Watch a game, not just the stat sheet...he's not really a mediocre veteran as he's only started 1 full season. I would completely disagree with your take that he's shown no reason to be optimistic. I would take Campbell over Brady all day...but that's what makes for good discussion. Best of luck-

 

[SSOG]

The Titans are a conservative smash mouth run 1st team that wins by playing good defense. That is not going to change as long as Fisher is the coach.

Steve McNair, under Jeff Fisher, put up about 200 yards per game (on pace for 3200 yards over a full season) 6 times in 8 seasons after he "broke out". And as I said, if you run like Young, 3200 yards is all you need.I also disagree with your assertion that Young's WRs suck right now, so his upside is limited. Situation changes radically from season to season. Brady's WRs were terrible last year- how's that working out for him right now? Tennessee has already expressed an interest in acquiring an elite WR. With talents like Chad Johnson, Randy Moss, and Javon Walker available this season, I think the odds are very good that Young will get himself some targets soon.

 

[SSOG]

Watch a game, not just the stat sheet...he's not really a mediocre veteran as he's only started 1 full season. I would completely disagree with your take that he's shown no reason to be optimistic. I would take Campbell over Brady all day...but that's what makes for good discussion. Best of luck-

You mean Kyle Brady, right?

 

[FUBAR]

Now, to take this innocent comment completely out of context and laugh at it.

I would take Campbell over Brady all day

 

[got_nugs]

Now, to take this innocent comment completely out of context and laugh at it.

I would take Campbell over Brady all day

 

[got_nugs]

Watch a game, not just the stat sheet...he's not really a mediocre veteran as he's only started 1 full season. I would completely disagree with your take that he's shown no reason to be optimistic. I would take Campbell over Brady all day...but that's what makes for good discussion. Best of luck-

You mean Kyle Brady, right?

Nope, I meant Tom Brady.

 

[Biabreakable]

The Titans are a conservative smash mouth run 1st team that wins by playing good defense. That is not going to change as long as Fisher is the coach.

Steve McNair, under Jeff Fisher, put up about 200 yards per game (on pace for 3200 yards over a full season) 6 times in 8 seasons after he "broke out". And as I said, if you run like Young, 3200 yards is all you need.

I do agree that Vince Youngs upside is that of the career we saw from Steve McNair. I made that comparision earlier upthread. It took McNair 4 seasons to become good enough to start in FF. McNair was a good runner as a QB also. I don't think we should expect VY to be better than him in this area of his game. McNair scored 8 rushing TD twice in his career.So far VY has averaged 158.16 yards passing/game in his 30 games played. He averages 31.56 yards rushing/game. If VY improves his yards passing to the bench mark of 200/game and maintains his rushing average that will equate to 4209 passing yards by doubling the value of the rushing yard points awarded. In 2007 there were 8 QBs that had passing yardage in this range. I think it is important to remember that even the pocket passers are running for a few yards as well. An average of about 5 yards/game even for guys like Brady and Eli Manning. And more importantly they will get a few TD off of QB sneaks during the year as well. If you are using a scoring system that rewards more points for rushing TD than passing TD that makes a running QB more valuable comparativly to other QBs. I don't play in such systems myself so that diminishes the value of a player like Young compared to traditional pocket passers.

Still even reaching this potential VY would be EOY ranked somthing like QB6-12 not QB1. That is if the passing TDs come up to the 18-20 range. In 2007 10 QB threw for more than 25TD and 3 more had 20TD thrown or more. The trend of passing in the league continues to grow. VY needs to double his TDs from 2007 to compete.

I also disagree with your assertion that Young's WRs suck right now, so his upside is limited. Situation changes radically from season to season. Brady's WRs were terrible last year- how's that working out for him right now? Tennessee has already expressed an interest in acquiring an elite WR. With talents like Chad Johnson, Randy Moss, and Javon Walker available this season, I think the odds are very good that Young will get himself some targets soon.

Well things certainly do change. McNabb is an example of another running QB who meets the numbers you optimisticly are hoping for from VY. However McNabb plays in a offensive system that affords him a lot more passing attempts than I see Fisher ever giving VY. McNabbs best season in 2004 coincided with him getting TO. When TO left his passing TDs again fell back to an 18.8 average/season.I do not see Randy Moss playing for any other team than NE. He loves winning more than anything and after the season he has had I don't see him turning his back on the Patriots for anything. Especialy not to play with a young developing QB like VY.

Chad Johnson is interesting. If he were to leave the Bengals then I think my expectations for Carson Palmer would be significantly lower. And Johnson may be good enough to help Young get to that 200 yard/game average. Javon Walker possibly might also. But what happened to him in Denver? Walker has a lot of issues.

Bottom line its too many ifs, coulds, maybes and potential for me to have confidence in. While I do agree with ranking VY over other unproven QBs with question marks to answer because of his rushing abilities, at the same time I cannot ignore those players situations having a impact on what they may develop into. For example players like Leinart and Brady Quinn may be passers in the near future throwing for 3500ish yards and 20+ TD. And BTW those guys are decent runners too. Not VY runners but those numbers do still count in their favor.

The last thing about VY that really has to be a concern, and really has hurt his teams offensive possesions are the turnovers. If your league penalises players for throwing INT and losing fumbles this has been a problem that VY really needs to fix to ever reach McNair potential. VY has thrown 30 INT in 30 games and fumbled the ball 22 times in 30 games. Until he fixes that all the rushing yards in the world won't make up the difference.

 

[Couch Potato]

Watch a game, not just the stat sheet...he's not really a mediocre veteran as he's only started 1 full season. I would completely disagree with your take that he's shown no reason to be optimistic. I would take Campbell over Brady all day...but that's what makes for good discussion. Best of luck-

You mean Kyle Brady, right?

Look again at post #59 and the post he was responding to. He was referring to Brady Quinn.

 

[got_nugs]

Watch a game, not just the stat sheet...he's not really a mediocre veteran as he's only started 1 full season. I would completely disagree with your take that he's shown no reason to be optimistic. I would take Campbell over Brady all day...but that's what makes for good discussion. Best of luck-

You mean Kyle Brady, right?

Look again at post #59 and the post he was responding to. He was referring to Brady Quinn.

Haha....I wouldn't take JC over the entire Brady Bunch, just Quinn(and yes, Kyle).

 

[Colin Dowling]

I'm surprised Alex Smith isn't on your list at all.

 

[Biabreakable]

I'm surprised Alex Smith isn't on your list at all.

Alex Smith is a serious wild card.His rookie season had to be one of the worst ever performances for a rookie QB in league history. It was that bad.In his 2nd year he seemed to make an awful lot of progress.Year 3 he backslid after the 4ers added new weapons for the offense to support him. But offense as a whole played worse than the year before. Smith made excuses for himself and showed poor leadership. He said he was healthy.. came back and played badly.. then blamed his play on being injured.Alex Smith is still one of the youngest QBs in the league going into his 4th season.He has had a new OC in every year never being able to get comfortable with a system.Smith now has Martz to teach him. Martz has meant big numbers for QBs everywhere he has coached. Martz also puts QBs at risk with blitz protection schemes that leave the QB open game for blitzers.Smith is still so young he could fail in SF and still catch on somewhere else and become decent. This year will decide if he stays the starter in SF or not I think though.

 

[Colin Dowling]

I'm surprised Alex Smith isn't on your list at all.

Alex Smith is a serious wild card.His rookie season had to be one of the worst ever performances for a rookie QB in league history. It was that bad.

In his 2nd year he seemed to make an awful lot of progress.

Year 3 he backslid after the 4ers added new weapons for the offense to support him. But offense as a whole played worse than the year before. Smith made excuses for himself and showed poor leadership. He said he was healthy.. came back and played badly.. then blamed his play on being injured.



Alex Smith is still one of the youngest QBs in the league going into his 4th season.

He has had a new OC in every year never being able to get comfortable with a system.

Smith now has Martz to teach him. Martz has meant big numbers for QBs everywhere he has coached. Martz also puts QBs at risk with blitz protection schemes that leave the QB open game for blitzers.

Smith is still so young he could fail in SF and still catch on somewhere else and become decent. This year will decide if he stays the starter in SF or not I think though.

Smith is the youngest QB in the league and will be in an offense that throws a TON. I am certain I'd have him ahead of guys like Trent Edwards and Kevin Kolb, among others.

 

[dgreen]

IMO, Roethlisberger is too high in most people's rankings. I really don't see the Steelers having such a disparity between pass and rush TDs as they did this year. They are still a running team, they just happened to get into the endzone by passing this year. I don't see their RBs only getting 7 rush TDs in the upcoming seasons. In his career, Ben is averaging just a little over 200 yds passing per game. That's not top 5 dynasty material.

I'd easily put Palmer, Brees, and Hasselbeck over Roethlisberger right now. I'm not trying to say he's been grossly overrated by some, but I think his 2007 season is making his projections a little off. I see him more in the 21-23 TD/season and 3200-3300 yards/season range the next few years.

 

[Biabreakable]

I'm surprised Alex Smith isn't on your list at all.

Alex Smith is a serious wild card.His rookie season had to be one of the worst ever performances for a rookie QB in league history. It was that bad.

In his 2nd year he seemed to make an awful lot of progress.

Year 3 he backslid after the 4ers added new weapons for the offense to support him. But offense as a whole played worse than the year before. Smith made excuses for himself and showed poor leadership. He said he was healthy.. came back and played badly.. then blamed his play on being injured.



Alex Smith is still one of the youngest QBs in the league going into his 4th season.

He has had a new OC in every year never being able to get comfortable with a system.

Smith now has Martz to teach him. Martz has meant big numbers for QBs everywhere he has coached. Martz also puts QBs at risk with blitz protection schemes that leave the QB open game for blitzers.

Smith is still so young he could fail in SF and still catch on somewhere else and become decent. This year will decide if he stays the starter in SF or not I think though.

Smith is the youngest QB in the league and will be in an offense that throws a TON. I am certain I'd have him ahead of guys like Trent Edwards and Kevin Kolb, among others.

Not sure about the rookie QB ages coming in which is why I said one of the youngest. Alex Smith will be 24 years old this coming May. To start his 4th season in the league.

 

[dgreen]

He did not have an impressive season and has done nothing statistically to warrant optimism.

I believe Campbell was QB11 at the time of his injury. He was performing at a respectable ppg pace with a poor RG and RT and injured and inconsistent WRs.The wildcard with Campbell is the coaching situation. Who takes over and what do they do with the offense?

 

[EBF]

I'm surprised Alex Smith isn't on your list at all.

Fool me once, shame on you.Fool me twice...

 

[EBF]

IMO, Roethlisberger is too high in most people's rankings. I really don't see the Steelers having such a disparity between pass and rush TDs as they did this year. They are still a running team, they just happened to get into the endzone by passing this year. I don't see their RBs only getting 7 rush TDs in the upcoming seasons. In his career, Ben is averaging just a little over 200 yds passing per game. That's not top 5 dynasty material.I'd easily put Palmer, Brees, and Hasselbeck over Roethlisberger right now. I'm not trying to say he's been grossly overrated by some, but I think his 2007 season is making his projections a little off. I see him more in the 21-23 TD/season and 3200-3300 yards/season range the next few years.

He's 25 and he's one of the best QBs in the league. His situation could be better, but it's hard not to consider him one of the better long-term options at QB.

 

[EBF]

He did not have an impressive season and has done nothing statistically to warrant optimism.

I believe Campbell was QB11 at the time of his injury. He was performing at a respectable ppg pace with a poor RG and RT and injured and inconsistent WRs.The wildcard with Campbell is the coaching situation. Who takes over and what do they do with the offense?

There are always people stepping up to defend Campbell, but the numbers don't offer much cause for optimism. QB rating - 77.6yards per attempt - 6.5TD:INT ratio: 1.1:1Not good. I think if he was going to become an elite QB we would've seen more flashes by now. Guys like Cutler, Schaub, and Garrard have done much better than Campbell in similar situations.

 

[dgreen]

IMO, Roethlisberger is too high in most people's rankings. I really don't see the Steelers having such a disparity between pass and rush TDs as they did this year. They are still a running team, they just happened to get into the endzone by passing this year. I don't see their RBs only getting 7 rush TDs in the upcoming seasons. In his career, Ben is averaging just a little over 200 yds passing per game. That's not top 5 dynasty material.I'd easily put Palmer, Brees, and Hasselbeck over Roethlisberger right now. I'm not trying to say he's been grossly overrated by some, but I think his 2007 season is making his projections a little off. I see him more in the 21-23 TD/season and 3200-3300 yards/season range the next few years.

He's 25 and he's one of the best QBs in the league. His situation could be better, but it's hard not to consider him one of the better long-term options at QB.

He is one of the better long-term options, just not better than Palmer, Brees and Hasselbeck, IMO. I certainly would not be willing to give up whatever Big Ben dynasty owners are asking for after his 2007 season. To me, he's a prime sell high candidate right now.

 

[EBF]

IMO, Roethlisberger is too high in most people's rankings. I really don't see the Steelers having such a disparity between pass and rush TDs as they did this year. They are still a running team, they just happened to get into the endzone by passing this year. I don't see their RBs only getting 7 rush TDs in the upcoming seasons. In his career, Ben is averaging just a little over 200 yds passing per game. That's not top 5 dynasty material.I'd easily put Palmer, Brees, and Hasselbeck over Roethlisberger right now. I'm not trying to say he's been grossly overrated by some, but I think his 2007 season is making his projections a little off. I see him more in the 21-23 TD/season and 3200-3300 yards/season range the next few years.

He's 25 and he's one of the best QBs in the league. His situation could be better, but it's hard not to consider him one of the better long-term options at QB.

He is one of the better long-term options, just not better than Palmer, Brees and Hasselbeck, IMO. I certainly would not be willing to give up whatever Big Ben dynasty owners are asking for after his 2007 season. To me, he's a prime sell high candidate right now.

I view him as a hold. He finished 16th in the NFL in passing attempts and still had a top 5 season. You could interpret this as meaning that his flukish TD totals inflated his numbers, but to me it also indicates that he actually still has a lot of upside. If he can be a top 5 QB on 404 passing attempts then imagine what he could do with 500+.

 

[dgreen]

He did not have an impressive season and has done nothing statistically to warrant optimism.

I believe Campbell was QB11 at the time of his injury. He was performing at a respectable ppg pace with a poor RG and RT and injured and inconsistent WRs.The wildcard with Campbell is the coaching situation. Who takes over and what do they do with the offense?

There are always people stepping up to defend Campbell, but the numbers don't offer much cause for optimism.QB rating - 77.6yards per attempt - 6.5TD:INT ratio: 1.1:1Not good. I think if he was going to become an elite QB we would've seen more flashes by now. Guys like Cutler, Schaub, and Garrard have done much better than Campbell in similar situations.

What do you have against a career 15.3 ppg? That's about 240 FP, which is generally good for top 15. Nothing great, but I don't see him going down before going up.I'm not saying he should be top 10, but to say there isn't much cause for optimism is a bit much. You have some guys (Schaub, Quinn, Edwards, and Leinart) that haven't proven more than Campbell yet.

 

[dgreen]

IMO, Roethlisberger is too high in most people's rankings. I really don't see the Steelers having such a disparity between pass and rush TDs as they did this year. They are still a running team, they just happened to get into the endzone by passing this year. I don't see their RBs only getting 7 rush TDs in the upcoming seasons. In his career, Ben is averaging just a little over 200 yds passing per game. That's not top 5 dynasty material.I'd easily put Palmer, Brees, and Hasselbeck over Roethlisberger right now. I'm not trying to say he's been grossly overrated by some, but I think his 2007 season is making his projections a little off. I see him more in the 21-23 TD/season and 3200-3300 yards/season range the next few years.

He's 25 and he's one of the best QBs in the league. His situation could be better, but it's hard not to consider him one of the better long-term options at QB.

He is one of the better long-term options, just not better than Palmer, Brees and Hasselbeck, IMO. I certainly would not be willing to give up whatever Big Ben dynasty owners are asking for after his 2007 season. To me, he's a prime sell high candidate right now.

I view him as a hold. He finished 16th in the NFL in passing attempts and still had a top 5 season. You could interpret this as meaning that his flukish TD totals inflated his numbers, but to me it also indicates that he actually still has a lot of upside. If he can be a top 5 QB on 404 passing attempts then imagine what he could do with 500+.

I like his TD%. He's been efficient. But, one of my points is that I don't think he will have too many 500+ pass attempt seasons.

 

[got_nugs]

He did not have an impressive season and has done nothing statistically to warrant optimism.

I believe Campbell was QB11 at the time of his injury. He was performing at a respectable ppg pace with a poor RG and RT and injured and inconsistent WRs.The wildcard with Campbell is the coaching situation. Who takes over and what do they do with the offense?

There are always people stepping up to defend Campbell, but the numbers don't offer much cause for optimism. QB rating - 77.6yards per attempt - 6.5TD:INT ratio: 1.1:1Not good. I think if he was going to become an elite QB we would've seen more flashes by now. Guys like Cutler, Schaub, and Garrard have done much better than Campbell in similar situations.

Garrard has been in the league 6 years now...that time in the league is pretty important, no?Schaub has been in the league for 4 years and has 15TDs and 15picks. HmmmCampbell has played in NFL games for 2 years...I think the jury is still out, in my opinion. You may be right....but to me there isn't enough statwise to conclude your hypothesis. I guess we will find out soon enough. Plus you're now comparing him to your 10/11/12 ranked QB's. I was discussing your 19th.

 

[EBF]

He did not have an impressive season and has done nothing statistically to warrant optimism.

I believe Campbell was QB11 at the time of his injury. He was performing at a respectable ppg pace with a poor RG and RT and injured and inconsistent WRs.The wildcard with Campbell is the coaching situation. Who takes over and what do they do with the offense?

There are always people stepping up to defend Campbell, but the numbers don't offer much cause for optimism.QB rating - 77.6yards per attempt - 6.5TD:INT ratio: 1.1:1Not good. I think if he was going to become an elite QB we would've seen more flashes by now. Guys like Cutler, Schaub, and Garrard have done much better than Campbell in similar situations.

What do you have against a career 15.3 ppg? That's about 240 FP, which is generally good for top 15. Nothing great, but I don't see him going down before going up.I'm not saying he should be top 10, but to say there isn't much cause for optimism is a bit much. You have some guys (Schaub, Quinn, Edwards, and Leinart) that haven't proven more than Campbell yet.

I put a heavy emphasis on real life performance when I evaluate dynasty QB prospects. So while Campbell might have put up some decent FF numbers, his real life numbers (the ones I referenced above) were not impressive and do not compare favorably to those of Schaub and Cutler. As for Quinn/Edwards/Leinart, I think those guys have more long-term upside than Campbell.

 

[gianmarco]

He did not have an impressive season and has done nothing statistically to warrant optimism.

I believe Campbell was QB11 at the time of his injury. He was performing at a respectable ppg pace with a poor RG and RT and injured and inconsistent WRs.The wildcard with Campbell is the coaching situation. Who takes over and what do they do with the offense?

There are always people stepping up to defend Campbell, but the numbers don't offer much cause for optimism.QB rating - 77.6

yards per attempt - 6.5

TD:INT ratio: 1.1:1

Not good.

I think if he was going to become an elite QB we would've seen more flashes by now. Guys like Cutler, Schaub, and Garrard have done much better than Campbell in similar situations.

What do you have against a career 15.3 ppg? That's about 240 FP, which is generally good for top 15. Nothing great, but I don't see him going down before going up.I'm not saying he should be top 10, but to say there isn't much cause for optimism is a bit much. You have some guys (Schaub, Quinn, Edwards, and Leinart) that haven't proven more than Campbell yet.

That's the problem right there. Good for top 15 is, in a sense, worthless in terms of dynasty. Yes, someone has to own these guys, and yes, they have value in times of bye weeks and injury. But a mediocre QB with little to no possibility of cracking the top 10 is a waste of a roster spot. Again, it doesn't mean you just dump these guys and they have their own intrinsic value, but you should NEVER be seeking these guys out and if you have them, you should be trying to move them for someone that may at least have the potential of cracking the top 10. Bottomline, if this guy is your #1 QB, you need to fix the situation quickly. If the guy is your #2 or lower, then try and move him for someone with similar stats but more upside. Easier said than done, yes, so sometimes you just have to hold. But, don't hold bc you think he may have future value and do NOT actively seek acquiring this guy other than a cheap throw-in for a separate deal.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I'm surprised Alex Smith isn't on your list at all.

Alex Smith is a serious wild card.His rookie season had to be one of the worst ever performances for a rookie QB in league history. It was that bad.

In his 2nd year he seemed to make an awful lot of progress.

Year 3 he backslid after the 4ers added new weapons for the offense to support him. But offense as a whole played worse than the year before. Smith made excuses for himself and showed poor leadership. He said he was healthy.. came back and played badly.. then blamed his play on being injured.



Alex Smith is still one of the youngest QBs in the league going into his 4th season.

He has had a new OC in every year never being able to get comfortable with a system.

Smith now has Martz to teach him. Martz has meant big numbers for QBs everywhere he has coached. Martz also puts QBs at risk with blitz protection schemes that leave the QB open game for blitzers.

Smith is still so young he could fail in SF and still catch on somewhere else and become decent. This year will decide if he stays the starter in SF or not I think though.

Smith is the youngest QB in the league and will be in an offense that throws a TON. I am certain I'd have him ahead of guys like Trent Edwards and Kevin Kolb, among others.

Whoa, hold on a second here. Let's see if he can beat out Shaun Hill in a fair fight this summer before we go ga-ga over his prospects. The best thing Smith has going for him is that there's a possibility his historically poor work might be mostly the result of a bum shoulder. He's put up two of the worst three seasons in history and was grossly outplayed by Hill. Martz is going to want accuracy and timing out of his QB, and I'm not sure how that helps Alex Smith at all. I honestly believe Hill wins that job in a fair fight...doesn't mean Hill is any great shakes either, but if the goal is a productive offense under Mike Martz, I think he wins.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

IMO, Roethlisberger is too high in most people's rankings. I really don't see the Steelers having such a disparity between pass and rush TDs as they did this year. They are still a running team, they just happened to get into the endzone by passing this year. I don't see their RBs only getting 7 rush TDs in the upcoming seasons. In his career, Ben is averaging just a little over 200 yds passing per game. That's not top 5 dynasty material.

I'd easily put Palmer, Brees, and Hasselbeck over Roethlisberger right now. I'm not trying to say he's been grossly overrated by some, but I think his 2007 season is making his projections a little off. I see him more in the 21-23 TD/season and 3200-3300 yards/season range the next few years.

Debunked.They are a passing team in the red zone because Roethlisberger is by far their best player, and he excels near the end zone.

You better get on board now because this is a hall of fame QB, and he might be the best in the game in a couple of years.

 

[dgreen]

IMO, Roethlisberger is too high in most people's rankings. I really don't see the Steelers having such a disparity between pass and rush TDs as they did this year. They are still a running team, they just happened to get into the endzone by passing this year. I don't see their RBs only getting 7 rush TDs in the upcoming seasons. In his career, Ben is averaging just a little over 200 yds passing per game. That's not top 5 dynasty material.

I'd easily put Palmer, Brees, and Hasselbeck over Roethlisberger right now. I'm not trying to say he's been grossly overrated by some, but I think his 2007 season is making his projections a little off. I see him more in the 21-23 TD/season and 3200-3300 yards/season range the next few years.

Debunked.They are a passing team in the red zone because Roethlisberger is by far their best player, and he excels near the end zone.

Thanks, I didn't realize that. I'll have to look into him again and possibly reconsider how I see his fantasy future.

You better get on board now because this is a hall of fame QB, and he might be the best in the game in a couple of years.

Troy Aikman?

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Troy Aikman?

Has nothing to do with Ben Roethlisberger.I can't believe this "Steelers philosophy" myth is still hanging there like a millstone around Roethlisberger's neck in dynasty leagues.

Let me find that football mythbusters post from December of 2006...

Here it is:

OK, it's Mythbusters time on the dynasty rankings thread. It's well past time to debunk a doggedly persistent Footballguystalk myth. Whether this myth comes from the keyboard of a loud-mouthed newbie in his first fantasy football league or from well-spoken seasoned staff writers, it has enjoyed an astonishing staying power.

MYTH:

Ben Roethlisberger will never be a fantasy football stud because the Steelers' offensive philosophy will always be run first. If Bill Cowher were to retire, this may be subject to change. Until that day, however, the Steelers' offensive tendencies will always put a damper on Roethlisberger's value.

Actuality: Ben Roethlisberger pass attempts by season:

2004 - 14 games, 295 attempts

2005 - 12 games, 268 attempts

2006 - 12 games, 393 attempts

Carson Palmer

2006 - 12 games, 386 attempts

Philip Rivers

2006 - 12 games, 360 attempts

Peyton Manning

2006 - 12 games, 407 attempts

Eli Manning

2006 - 12 games, 398 attempts

Ben Roethlisberger is still the most overlooked QB property in dynasty leagues. Consider QB rating, yards per attempt, completion percentage, won/loss record and postseason success, and you're still looking at the most impressive beginning to an NFL career in history. I know, fat lot of good that's done for your weekly fantasy lineup. On the other hand, it is an indication of elite talent, which should be foremost in your considerations for long-term dynasty success.

While this has truly been a down year for Roethlisberger with the motorcycle accident, the emergency surgery, the fluke and not-so-fluke interceptions, all around spotty play and bad luck, the bright spots should not be overlooked. The Steelers' passing attempts have increased significantly this season, and it's not just a product of untimely interceptions, a shaky secondary, and Bettis' retirement. This team's personnel has dictated a move to a more passing friendly game plan. Take a serious look at Roethlisberger's weapons this year and for the future:

True #1 WR: Hines Ward. Always a high catch percentage, gets open, willing to go over the middle, makes plays, and a redzone weapon (not to mention consistently underrated in this site's dynasty rankings).

Up & coming 1st round draft pick: Santonio Holmes. Coming on strong the past 5-6 weeks, explosive after the catch, and looking like a significant 2007 improvement on recent #2 WR's Antwaan Randle El & Cedrick Wilson.

Dominant talent at TE: In 2005, Heath Miller had one of the top 10 rookie seasons of all time for a tight end. He remains a strong redzone weapon and will continue to develop going into his 3rd & 4th seasons as most TEs do.

Underrated playmaker at 3rd WR: Nate Washington has stepped into the WR void behind Hines Ward and made quite a few big plays this season. Outside of Chris Henry, he's been as good as any 3rd WR in the league this season.

At RB Willie Parker has 3 receiving TDs this season, which is above average for a running back and another clear sign of his homerun hitting ability. If he returns and is in good health, Verron Haynes is one of the better 3rd down backs in the NFL.

Much gets lost in the shuffle during the typical week to week (mostly manufactured) storylines of a NFL season. Among the storylines lost and/or completely misrepresented during the course of this season has been the promising future of the Steelers' offense, both in the passing game and the running game. Ben Roethlisberger already had the individual NFL-level talent as evidenced by his historic first two seasons. What's exciting for his fantasy future is the already changing offensive philosophy to suit the impressive young talent comprising the Steelers' passing game. While the Steelers' vaunted defense slips a bit with age in the coming seasons, the up and coming offense will pick up the slack and mandate a different breed of Pittsburgh play calling.

Going into 2007, this is a top 5-7 dynasty quarterback. If your league's Roethlisberger owner is still caught up in the myth, go ahead and steal him while his value is at its lowest.

 

[dgreen]

He did not have an impressive season and has done nothing statistically to warrant optimism.

I believe Campbell was QB11 at the time of his injury. He was performing at a respectable ppg pace with a poor RG and RT and injured and inconsistent WRs.The wildcard with Campbell is the coaching situation. Who takes over and what do they do with the offense?

There are always people stepping up to defend Campbell, but the numbers don't offer much cause for optimism.QB rating - 77.6

yards per attempt - 6.5

TD:INT ratio: 1.1:1

Not good.

I think if he was going to become an elite QB we would've seen more flashes by now. Guys like Cutler, Schaub, and Garrard have done much better than Campbell in similar situations.

What do you have against a career 15.3 ppg? That's about 240 FP, which is generally good for top 15. Nothing great, but I don't see him going down before going up.I'm not saying he should be top 10, but to say there isn't much cause for optimism is a bit much. You have some guys (Schaub, Quinn, Edwards, and Leinart) that haven't proven more than Campbell yet.

That's the problem right there. Good for top 15 is, in a sense, worthless in terms of dynasty. Yes, someone has to own these guys, and yes, they have value in times of bye weeks and injury. But a mediocre QB with little to no possibility of cracking the top 10 is a waste of a roster spot. Again, it doesn't mean you just dump these guys and they have their own intrinsic value, but you should NEVER be seeking these guys out and if you have them, you should be trying to move them for someone that may at least have the potential of cracking the top 10. Bottomline, if this guy is your #1 QB, you need to fix the situation quickly. If the guy is your #2 or lower, then try and move him for someone with similar stats but more upside. Easier said than done, yes, so sometimes you just have to hold. But, don't hold bc you think he may have future value and do NOT actively seek acquiring this guy other than a cheap throw-in for a separate deal.

I agree that you shouldn't be targeting a QB15 in a dynasty league. You can easily get a new QB15 every year. But, I was not arguing that Campbell is a QB15 and is going to stay there. I'm just arguing that he was better than most think. As I said, I think he was QB11 when he went down. He was having a decent season in his first full year as the starter.BTW, I think 2008 is probably his make-or-break season as a fantasy player.

 

[dgreen]

Troy Aikman?

Has nothing to do with Ben Roethlisberger.

And whether Ben is a HOF QB who might be the best in the game in a couple years isn't necessarily relevant to whether he's a top 5 dynasty QB.I'm not too concerned with how many SBs Ben wins or what his HOF status is. I'm concerned with what his passing opportunities will be and how likely he is to put up yards and TDs. Until your comment about them in the redzone, I assumed his opportunity for high TDs and yards was minimal.

 

[EBF]

IMO, Roethlisberger is too high in most people's rankings. I really don't see the Steelers having such a disparity between pass and rush TDs as they did this year. They are still a running team, they just happened to get into the endzone by passing this year. I don't see their RBs only getting 7 rush TDs in the upcoming seasons. In his career, Ben is averaging just a little over 200 yds passing per game. That's not top 5 dynasty material.

I'd easily put Palmer, Brees, and Hasselbeck over Roethlisberger right now. I'm not trying to say he's been grossly overrated by some, but I think his 2007 season is making his projections a little off. I see him more in the 21-23 TD/season and 3200-3300 yards/season range the next few years.

Debunked.They are a passing team in the red zone because Roethlisberger is by far their best player, and he excels near the end zone.

Thanks, I didn't realize that. I'll have to look into him again and possibly reconsider how I see his fantasy future.

You better get on board now because this is a hall of fame QB, and he might be the best in the game in a couple of years.

Troy Aikman?

Yikes. It's been a while since I heard the Aikman/Roethlisberger comparison. It's not a good one. Some facts about Troy Aikman:

- His career QB rating is 81.6.

- He only threw more than 20 TDs in a season once in his career.

- He had a career yards per attempt average of 7.0.

- He never averaged over 8.0 yards per attempt in a season.

- His career TD:INT ratio is 1.17:1

Some facts about Ben Roethlisberger

- His career QB rating is 92.5.

- He has already thrown for over 30 TDs in a season.

- He has a career yards per attempt average of 8.1.

- He has averaged over 8.0 yards per attempt in half of his seasons.

- His career TD: INT ratio is 1.55:1.

Troy Aikman and Ben Roethlisberger have virtually nothing in common aside from the fact that they play for winning teams. Roethlisberger was more effective as a rookie than Aikman was in the best season of his entire career!

 

[dgreen]

IMO, Roethlisberger is too high in most people's rankings. I really don't see the Steelers having such a disparity between pass and rush TDs as they did this year. They are still a running team, they just happened to get into the endzone by passing this year. I don't see their RBs only getting 7 rush TDs in the upcoming seasons. In his career, Ben is averaging just a little over 200 yds passing per game. That's not top 5 dynasty material.

I'd easily put Palmer, Brees, and Hasselbeck over Roethlisberger right now. I'm not trying to say he's been grossly overrated by some, but I think his 2007 season is making his projections a little off. I see him more in the 21-23 TD/season and 3200-3300 yards/season range the next few years.

Debunked.They are a passing team in the red zone because Roethlisberger is by far their best player, and he excels near the end zone.

Thanks, I didn't realize that. I'll have to look into him again and possibly reconsider how I see his fantasy future.

You better get on board now because this is a hall of fame QB, and he might be the best in the game in a couple of years.

Troy Aikman?

Yikes. It's been a while since I heard the Aikman/Roethlisberger comparison. It's not a good one. Some facts about Troy Aikman:

- His career QB rating is 81.6.

- He only threw more than 20 TDs in a season once in his career.

- He had a career yards per attempt average of 7.0.

- He never averaged over 8.0 yards per attempt in a season.

- His career TD:INT ratio is 1.17:1

Some facts about Ben Roethlisberger

- His career QB rating is 92.5.

- He has already thrown for over 30 TDs in a season.

- He has a career yards per attempt average of 8.1.

- He has averaged over 8.0 yards per attempt in half of his seasons.

- His career TD: INT ratio is 1.55:1.

Troy Aikman and Ben Roethlisberger have virtually nothing in common aside from the fact that they play for winning teams. Roethlisberger was more effective as a rookie than Aikman was in the best season of his entire career!

Good thing I wasn't making a comparison of their QB rating, TDs in a season, YPA, or TD:INT ratio.

 

[EBF]

IMO, Roethlisberger is too high in most people's rankings. I really don't see the Steelers having such a disparity between pass and rush TDs as they did this year. They are still a running team, they just happened to get into the endzone by passing this year. I don't see their RBs only getting 7 rush TDs in the upcoming seasons. In his career, Ben is averaging just a little over 200 yds passing per game. That's not top 5 dynasty material.

I'd easily put Palmer, Brees, and Hasselbeck over Roethlisberger right now. I'm not trying to say he's been grossly overrated by some, but I think his 2007 season is making his projections a little off. I see him more in the 21-23 TD/season and 3200-3300 yards/season range the next few years.

Debunked.They are a passing team in the red zone because Roethlisberger is by far their best player, and he excels near the end zone.

Thanks, I didn't realize that. I'll have to look into him again and possibly reconsider how I see his fantasy future.

You better get on board now because this is a hall of fame QB, and he might be the best in the game in a couple of years.

Troy Aikman?

Yikes. It's been a while since I heard the Aikman/Roethlisberger comparison. It's not a good one. Some facts about Troy Aikman:

- His career QB rating is 81.6.

- He only threw more than 20 TDs in a season once in his career.

- He had a career yards per attempt average of 7.0.

- He never averaged over 8.0 yards per attempt in a season.

- His career TD:INT ratio is 1.17:1

Some facts about Ben Roethlisberger

- His career QB rating is 92.5.

- He has already thrown for over 30 TDs in a season.

- He has a career yards per attempt average of 8.1.

- He has averaged over 8.0 yards per attempt in half of his seasons.

- His career TD: INT ratio is 1.55:1.

Troy Aikman and Ben Roethlisberger have virtually nothing in common aside from the fact that they play for winning teams. Roethlisberger was more effective as a rookie than Aikman was in the best season of his entire career!

Good thing I wasn't making a comparison of their QB rating, TDs in a season, YPA, or TD:INT ratio.

What were you comparing then? Ben had 3,513 passing yards in 2006. That's more than Aikman ever had in his career.

Ben had 32 passing TDs in 2007. That's more than Aikman ever had in his career.

Through four years Ben has 11,673 passing yards and 84 passing TDs.

Through four years Aikman had 10,527 passing yards and 54 passing TDs.

About the only parallel between these two is the fact that they don't throw the ball a ton. But since we're talking about dynasty leagues and since situation is fluid and difficult to predict, I'd say the fact that Ben hasn't thrown the ball a ton in his first four seasons is a somewhat minor consideration in the big picture. He clearly has the talent to be an elite player, which is exactly what I'm looking for.

Consider the following career averages:

Tom Brady - 63% completion percentage, 7.2 yards/attempt, 92.9 QB rating

Peyton Manning - 64% completion percentage, 7.7 yards/attempt, 94.7 QB rating

Ben Roethlisberger - 63% completion percentage, 8.1 yards/attempt, 92.5 QB rating

Ignore at your own peril.

 

[dgreen]

IMO, Roethlisberger is too high in most people's rankings. I really don't see the Steelers having such a disparity between pass and rush TDs as they did this year. They are still a running team, they just happened to get into the endzone by passing this year. I don't see their RBs only getting 7 rush TDs in the upcoming seasons. In his career, Ben is averaging just a little over 200 yds passing per game. That's not top 5 dynasty material.

I'd easily put Palmer, Brees, and Hasselbeck over Roethlisberger right now. I'm not trying to say he's been grossly overrated by some, but I think his 2007 season is making his projections a little off. I see him more in the 21-23 TD/season and 3200-3300 yards/season range the next few years.

Debunked.They are a passing team in the red zone because Roethlisberger is by far their best player, and he excels near the end zone.

Thanks, I didn't realize that. I'll have to look into him again and possibly reconsider how I see his fantasy future.

You better get on board now because this is a hall of fame QB, and he might be the best in the game in a couple of years.

Troy Aikman?

Yikes. It's been a while since I heard the Aikman/Roethlisberger comparison. It's not a good one. Some facts about Troy Aikman:

- His career QB rating is 81.6.

- He only threw more than 20 TDs in a season once in his career.

- He had a career yards per attempt average of 7.0.

- He never averaged over 8.0 yards per attempt in a season.

- His career TD:INT ratio is 1.17:1

Some facts about Ben Roethlisberger

- His career QB rating is 92.5.

- He has already thrown for over 30 TDs in a season.

- He has a career yards per attempt average of 8.1.

- He has averaged over 8.0 yards per attempt in half of his seasons.

- His career TD: INT ratio is 1.55:1.

Troy Aikman and Ben Roethlisberger have virtually nothing in common aside from the fact that they play for winning teams. Roethlisberger was more effective as a rookie than Aikman was in the best season of his entire career!

Good thing I wasn't making a comparison of their QB rating, TDs in a season, YPA, or TD:INT ratio.

What were you comparing then?

You better get on board now because this is a hall of fame QB, and he might be the best in the game in a couple of years.

 

[SSOG]

Watch a game, not just the stat sheet...he's not really a mediocre veteran as he's only started 1 full season. I would completely disagree with your take that he's shown no reason to be optimistic. I would take Campbell over Brady all day...but that's what makes for good discussion. Best of luck-

You mean Kyle Brady, right?

Look again at post #59 and the post he was responding to. He was referring to Brady Quinn.

That makes a *LOT* more sense. Thanks.

I'm surprised Alex Smith isn't on your list at all.

I can pull the numbers, but speaking historically, 80% of QBs who ever crack the top 10 will do so within their first 30 starts or so. Most of the QBs who wind up being exceptions fall right on the margins (either they fell just short of the top 10, or they cracked the top 10 just outside of their first 30 or so games). As of right now, Alex Smith hasn't come anywhere near the top 10 over any span in his entire career. Historical precedent is hardly infallible, but let's just say that Smith is going to have to overcome UNBELIEVABLY long odds.

What do you have against a career 15.3 ppg? That's about 240 FP, which is generally good for top 15. Nothing great, but I don't see him going down before going up.I'm not saying he should be top 10, but to say there isn't much cause for optimism is a bit much. You have some guys (Schaub, Quinn, Edwards, and Leinart) that haven't proven more than Campbell yet.

Even in college, Campbell was never the kind of guy who took over games. He's always struck me more as one of those "gritty leader" types instead of one of those "raw talent" types- more Phillip Rivers or Troy Aikman than Carson Palmer or Peyton Manning. That might work for the NFL, but it seldom works for fantasy football. Combine this with how little he's actually showed on the field, as well as the fact that elite QBs usually show it early, and I'd rank him closer to J.P. Losman and Alex Smith than Matt Schaub or Jay Cutler.

You better get on board now because this is a hall of fame QB, and he might be the best in the game in a couple of years.

Troy Aikman?

8+ ypa will guarantee a player fantasy relevance. There's pretty much no chance of Roethlisberger becoming a Troy Aikman. He was made to direct an air-show, and while he might get hurt at times due to lack of quantity throws, he more than makes up for it in abundance of QUALITY throws (deep shots and red-zone passing, the kinds of throws that pile up fantasy points in a hurry). Play the pro-rate game, and over the last 3 seasons he has finished 14th, 8th, and 5th with 31 and 27 attempts per game over the past two years. That's a clear progression, as well as solid evidence that he'll remain a highly-integrated part of the offensive attack. His TD total might be inflated this year, but EVERYONE's TD totals were inflated this year (8 QBs had 28+ scores this year compared to 3 last year). There's a LOT to like about Roeth right now, and not a whole lot to dislike.

I agree that you shouldn't be targeting a QB15 in a dynasty league. You can easily get a new QB15 every year. But, I was not arguing that Campbell is a QB15 and is going to stay there. I'm just arguing that he was better than most think. As I said, I think he was QB11 when he went down. He was having a decent season in his first full year as the starter.BTW, I think 2008 is probably his make-or-break season as a fantasy player.

I said before the season that this was, in my mind, Campbell's make-or-break year. I'm not sure he made it. I'd be shopping him aggressively right now hoping to get some bites based on how young he is and how few games he's started.

 

[FUBAR]

I'm surprised Alex Smith isn't on your list at all.

I can pull the numbers, but speaking historically, 80% of QBs who ever crack the top 10 will do so within their first 30 starts or so. Most of the QBs who wind up being exceptions fall right on the margins (either they fell just short of the top 10, or they cracked the top 10 just outside of their first 30 or so games). As of right now, Alex Smith hasn't come anywhere near the top 10 over any span in his entire career. Historical precedent is hardly infallible, but let's just say that Smith is going to have to overcome UNBELIEVABLY long odds.

Plus, he isn't a lock for the starting job.49ers | S. Hill's agent will send team counter-proposal - Sun Jan 13 7:10:00 p.m. CT 2008 (KFFL) Matt Maiocco, of The Santa Rosa Press Democrat, reports Bob Littinville, the agent for San Francisco 49ers QB Shaun Hill, said he will send the 49ers a counter-proposal as soon as Sunday, Jan. 13, after the team sent Hill a contract proposal last week. Hill will be an unrestricted free agent this offseason. 49ers | S. Hill a UFA this offseason - Fri Jan 11 9:23:00 p.m. CT 2008 (KFFL) Matt Maiocco, of the Santa Rosa Press Democrat, reports San Francisco 49ers QB Shaun Hill will be an unrestricted free agent this offseason. He will likely return to the team and compete for a starting job.