DYNASTY: Top 2013 College Prospects (1 Viewer)

[MAC_32]

The backlash seems excessive to me. He had his best YPA of his career in 2012 and his TD:INT ratio was very respectable (2.4:1). I think he has a chance to be pretty good. He's experienced, he comes out of a pro style offense, he's accurate, he has good character. From what I've seen, he's a tough player who doesn't wilt under pressure. Maybe he ends up like Brady Quinn or Mark Sanchez, but there's enough there to justify some optimism. Playing with Lee, Woods, Agholor, and Grimble definitely helped his numbers. On the other hand, I think Kiffin is a bad coach. He doesn't get the most out of his talent and doesn't put them in the best position to be successful.

I actually think he has a shot to end up being the 1st QB taken once everyone has a chance to thoroughly look him over. Now FF wise, I don't think anyone has a higher floor than Geno Smith. But when you look at both Barkley and Smith, they throw a majority of their passes within the first 5 yards of the LOS.

Geno goes down field. A lot. It's what separates him and Barkley imho.

Geno has better arm strength, but he is far from strong in his deep ball accuracy. I happen to think its one of his weaknesses. You are right though, he threw the ball down field plenty.I said in one of these prospects threads a few weeks ago that I think the off season underware Olympics will be kind to Barkley. He now way fall to round 2 IMO and will likely be the #2 QB to go.

I don't think either one has exceptional arm strength, definitely disagree about deep ball accuracy though. Geno has accuracy issues when going downfield in a dirty pocket or when his second or third read is on a different part of the field. Re positions his feet poorly.

 

[TheFanatic]

The backlash seems excessive to me. He had his best YPA of his career in 2012 and his TD:INT ratio was very respectable (2.4:1). I think he has a chance to be pretty good. He's experienced, he comes out of a pro style offense, he's accurate, he has good character. From what I've seen, he's a tough player who doesn't wilt under pressure. Maybe he ends up like Brady Quinn or Mark Sanchez, but there's enough there to justify some optimism. Playing with Lee, Woods, Agholor, and Grimble definitely helped his numbers. On the other hand, I think Kiffin is a bad coach. He doesn't get the most out of his talent and doesn't put them in the best position to be successful.

Gabbert, Ponder, Locker, Sanchez all went in the first round. I think this guys goes in the first.

Justifying making a mistake by citing previous mistakes is a good way to get fired.

It's not a justification for a GM to make that pick based on that. It's an observation of the way the scouting machine works. Those guys get pushed into the first round when they shouldn't be. I think Barkley is better than than any of those guys and if they can go in the first, Barkley will go in the first.

 

[TheFanatic]

Barkley was exposed as a bad decision maker under duress this year. It seems his price is correcting from a month ago after being over rated last year to under rated in December. I like him as a day two target to develop behind a vet. I don't like him on day one at all.

Agreed, I can see someone like KC or Arizona addressing a need in round one and taking Barkley in round two.

That might be ideal. KC picks up a LT and then grabs the QB. That way he's protected and there is no immediate crush to get him on the field. Let him hold the clipboard behind Cassel and then start in year two, in the mean time working heavily on the decision making.

Best case scenario for KC IMO:-resign Brandon Albert(he's a solid LT) and Bowe

-trade down(no player is worth the 1 overall)

-use one of those picks for a QB and the rest address some needs on the team

I think KC isn't that far away from being a solid team. OL is good/RB is good/WR could be if Baldwin develops/defense has some good talent as well.

We need to stop this right now. There aren't any players that are that coveted to get anyone to trade up and only a couple teams who might considering doing such a thing...

 

[Andy Dufresne]

-trade down(no player is worth the 1 overall)

We need to stop this right now. There aren't any players that are that coveted to get anyone to trade up and only a couple teams who might considering doing such a thing...

I think it's ban worthy. How can a guy say no player is worth the #1 overall and in the same sentence expect that there's a team out there that would be willing to trade up to the #1 for a guy that's...wait for it...not worth it?

 

[jurb26]

-trade down(no player is worth the 1 overall)

We need to stop this right now. There aren't any players that are that coveted to get anyone to trade up and only a couple teams who might considering doing such a thing...

I think it's ban worthy. How can a guy say no player is worth the #1 overall and in the same sentence expect that there's a team out there that would be willing to trade up to the #1 for a guy that's...wait for it...not worth it?

There are players worthy of the #1 overall, they just don't play QB, which seems to be the only position many people feel should go #1.Joeckel would be worth the spot. So would Lotulelei. I'm not sure a team would care to move up for them, but teams fall in love with players every year and move up to spots the pundants think they don't need too in order to grab them. With the rookie salary issue being addressed its not nearly as improbably as a few years ago.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Okay, let's just say it's ban-worthy to throw it out as a matter-of-fact.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

Back to Patterson, and I admit I just getting started on my analysis, but I am impressed by his athleticism. The Vols used in in the Wildcat and and as an RB a few plays, and he looked pretty fluid to me. I also see him catching the ball in crowds and he seem pretty fearless. Obviously the combine will tell more in regards to speed/size ratio. What do otehr's tiers look like at this point? I have Keenan, Hopkins and Patterson at the top of the WR tier at this point. But, as I said, I haven't invested a lot of time into it yet.

 

[jurb26]

Okay, let's just say it's ban-worthy to throw it out as a matter-of-fact.

I must say. The way it was phrased was pretty used car salesman like.

 

[EBF]

Hopkins is another receiver that I'll probably be avoiding. I'm curious to see what his height/weight/speed is at the combine. If he really comes up aces there then that could change my opinion. Just watching his game clips though, I think he's a good receiver, but I also wonder if he isn't a bit of a tweener. He doesn't appear to have blazing downfield speed. He's tall, but not really that strong. Certainly not an overpowering presence in the possession game like a Crabtree, Boldin, or Blackmon. Overall, he seems like a skinny possession WR who excels because of his range and good overall athletic ability. It works well at the college level. At the next level, it's tough to see how he's going to have a clear advantage over the higher caliber of corners he'll be facing. If you look at guys like Chris Harper and Marquise Goodwin, they're not complete receivers either. But at least in their case they have one elite trait that you can point to. Harper is so massive that he's going to be really difficult to cope with for 185-190 pound corners. Goodwin is a world class track athlete who will be more explosive than every defender who lines up against him. I'm not saying either of these guys is a lock for NFL stardom, but they have one skill that should translate seamlessly in the NFL. With Hopkins, I think there's more of a risk that he ends up being a jack-of-all-trades who simply isn't good enough in any given part of the game to become a #1 at the next level. If you look at this WR class, I think there are other guys like Allen, Rogers, Wilson, Wheaton, and Patton whose playing styles and skill sets better align with types that have already proven successful in the NFL.

 

[tdmills]

Barkley was exposed as a bad decision maker under duress this year. It seems his price is correcting from a month ago after being over rated last year to under rated in December. I like him as a day two target to develop behind a vet. I don't like him on day one at all.

Agreed, I can see someone like KC or Arizona addressing a need in round one and taking Barkley in round two.

That might be ideal. KC picks up a LT and then grabs the QB. That way he's protected and there is no immediate crush to get him on the field. Let him hold the clipboard behind Cassel and then start in year two, in the mean time working heavily on the decision making.

Best case scenario for KC IMO:-resign Brandon Albert(he's a solid LT) and Bowe

-trade down(no player is worth the 1 overall)

-use one of those picks for a QB and the rest address some needs on the team

I think KC isn't that far away from being a solid team. OL is good/RB is good/WR could be if Baldwin develops/defense has some good talent as well.

We need to stop this right now. There aren't any players that are that coveted to get anyone to trade up and only a couple teams who might considering doing such a thing...

For someone against pissing matches I find this odd.If KC resigns Albert(like I pointed out earlier), then no player is worth the 1 overall pick(to them). Joekel and star lotulelei are the only players worth it IMO. So LT isn't a need and with Poe drafted in round one last year(despite not showing much), I would trade down.

 

[DexterDew]

i always thought trading out of (down) from the 1st overall was easier said than done... maybe with the new CBA, teams are more willing to move around in the draft... this is only our 2nd draft with the new CBA so maybe there will be more action

 

[tdmills]

Hopkins is another receiver that I'll probably be avoiding. I'm curious to see what his height/weight/speed is at the combine. If he really comes up aces there then that could change my opinion. Just watching his game clips though, I think he's a good receiver, but I also wonder if he isn't a bit of a tweener. He doesn't appear to have blazing downfield speed. He's tall, but not really that strong. Certainly not an overpowering presence in the possession game like a Crabtree, Boldin, or Blackmon. Overall, he seems like a skinny possession WR who excels because of his range and good overall athletic ability. It works well at the college level. At the next level, it's tough to see how he's going to have a clear advantage over the higher caliber of corners he'll be facing. If you look at guys like Chris Harper and Marquise Goodwin, they're not complete receivers either. But at least in their case they have one elite trait that you can point to. Harper is so massive that he's going to be really difficult to cope with for 185-190 pound corners. Goodwin is a world class track athlete who will be more explosive than every defender who lines up against him. I'm not saying either of these guys is a lock for NFL stardom, but they have one skill that should translate seamlessly in the NFL. With Hopkins, I think there's more of a risk that he ends up being a jack-of-all-trades who simply isn't good enough in any given part of the game to become a #1 at the next level. If you look at this WR class, I think there are other guys like Allen, Rogers, Wilson, Wheaton, and Patton whose playing styles and skill sets better align with types that have already proven successful in the NFL.

I want to see how athletic Hopkins is at the combine as well. He's a very complete WR without one thing that's elite.I see Patton as a smaller/less explosive version of Hopkins. What do you like about him?

 

[EBF]

To me, Patton looks like a good #2 receiver. Nothing more. Nothing less. I think he's a better route runner than Hopkins. More compact and efficient in his movements. Hopkins has a lot more upside. More dynamic athlete.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

My first impressions on two more receivers:Terrance Williams looked very physical and strong. In the two highlight films he showed very good hands and enough speed to hurt the defense with the long ball. He is listed at 6-2 and 205 lbs, but looked much thicker and stronger. He is not afraid mix it up with the defense and drew a lot of PIs.Justin Hunter, listed at 6-4 and 200lbs, looked a little frail and seemed to go down very easy on contact. His positives are his size, his ability to stretch the field and a tremendous target range.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

My first impressions on two more receivers:Terrance Williams looked very physical and strong. In the two highlight films he showed very good hands and enough speed to hurt the defense with the long ball. He is listed at 6-2 and 205 lbs, but looked much thicker and stronger. He is not afraid mix it up with the defense and drew a lot of PIs.Justin Hunter, listed at 6-4 and 200lbs, looked a little frail and seemed to go down very easy on contact. His positives are his size, his ability to stretch the field and a tremendous target range.

was really upset with what I saw from him this year, not his fault though.. it seems that injury had an affect on his play...not the guy he was pre-injury ... could be an interesting buy low if he can continue to get back to his old form

 

[ummich10]

Hopkins is another receiver that I'll probably be avoiding. I'm curious to see what his height/weight/speed is at the combine. If he really comes up aces there then that could change my opinion. Just watching his game clips though, I think he's a good receiver, but I also wonder if he isn't a bit of a tweener. He doesn't appear to have blazing downfield speed. He's tall, but not really that strong. Certainly not an overpowering presence in the possession game like a Crabtree, Boldin, or Blackmon. Overall, he seems like a skinny possession WR who excels because of his range and good overall athletic ability. It works well at the college level. At the next level, it's tough to see how he's going to have a clear advantage over the higher caliber of corners he'll be facing.

If you look at guys like Chris Harper and Marquise Goodwin, they're not complete receivers either. But at least in their case they have one elite trait that you can point to. Harper is so massive that he's going to be really difficult to cope with for 185-190 pound corners. Goodwin is a world class track athlete who will be more explosive than every defender who lines up against him. I'm not saying either of these guys is a lock for NFL stardom, but they have one skill that should translate seamlessly in the NFL. With Hopkins, I think there's more of a risk that he ends up being a jack-of-all-trades who simply isn't good enough in any given part of the game to become a #1 at the next level.

If you look at this WR class, I think there are other guys like Allen, Rogers, Wilson, Wheaton, and Patton whose playing styles and skill sets better align with types that have already proven successful in the NFL.

Thanks to everyone for the great conversation. I'm quoting EBF here not to single him out but just to use as an example for my upcoming question.I'm going into my 2nd year playing dynasty, and absolutely love it. I'm not a film watcher (yet), so I soak up your work here to get a mental picture of a guy before the draft. Regarding the bolder statement above, or when you say you're avoiding a player, are you (meaning all the regular posters here, not just EBF) only looking for guys who have the potential to be a #1? Or do these #2 guys have a place on your roster? I find myself researching mostly these #2 guys because 1) there are few potential superstars out there, 2) the guys labeled as potential superstars are often head cases which I tend to shy away from, and 3) I've done well enough in my 3 dynasty leagues that I'm not in position to draft Patterson or Hunter or Rodgers. My WR's are weak enough that I've been starting combinations of guys like Donald Jones, Andrew Hawkins, Davone Bess, and Andre Roberts to go with Marques Colston in one league and Eric Decker in another. Maybe it's my own bias, but I'm not opposed to a roster full of guys like Hopkins and Patton to form a good base, especially if they're in good situations, and have an occasional riskier guy as a complement.

 

[MAC_32]

My first impressions on two more receivers:Terrance Williams looked very physical and strong. In the two highlight films he showed very good hands and enough speed to hurt the defense with the long ball. He is listed at 6-2 and 205 lbs, but looked much thicker and stronger. He is not afraid mix it up with the defense and drew a lot of PIs.Justin Hunter, listed at 6-4 and 200lbs, looked a little frail and seemed to go down very easy on contact. His positives are his size, his ability to stretch the field and a tremendous target range.

Watch more tape, williams has hands issues. Biggest issue seemed to be body catching.

 

[tdmills]

My first impressions on two more receivers:Terrance Williams looked very physical and strong. In the two highlight films he showed very good hands and enough speed to hurt the defense with the long ball. He is listed at 6-2 and 205 lbs, but looked much thicker and stronger. He is not afraid mix it up with the defense and drew a lot of PIs.Justin Hunter, listed at 6-4 and 200lbs, looked a little frail and seemed to go down very easy on contact. His positives are his size, his ability to stretch the field and a tremendous target range.

Right on with Justin HunterTerrance Williams is meh to me. I don't see anything special to his game to become a FF or NFL difference maker. He lines up 3 yards from the sideline(no NFL does this) and benefits from a Baylor system that doesn't make him run a full route tree. I see a limited athlete, no thanks.

 

[tdmills]

Hopkins is another receiver that I'll probably be avoiding. I'm curious to see what his height/weight/speed is at the combine. If he really comes up aces there then that could change my opinion. Just watching his game clips though, I think he's a good receiver, but I also wonder if he isn't a bit of a tweener. He doesn't appear to have blazing downfield speed. He's tall, but not really that strong. Certainly not an overpowering presence in the possession game like a Crabtree, Boldin, or Blackmon. Overall, he seems like a skinny possession WR who excels because of his range and good overall athletic ability. It works well at the college level. At the next level, it's tough to see how he's going to have a clear advantage over the higher caliber of corners he'll be facing.

If you look at guys like Chris Harper and Marquise Goodwin, they're not complete receivers either. But at least in their case they have one elite trait that you can point to. Harper is so massive that he's going to be really difficult to cope with for 185-190 pound corners. Goodwin is a world class track athlete who will be more explosive than every defender who lines up against him. I'm not saying either of these guys is a lock for NFL stardom, but they have one skill that should translate seamlessly in the NFL. With Hopkins, I think there's more of a risk that he ends up being a jack-of-all-trades who simply isn't good enough in any given part of the game to become a #1 at the next level.

If you look at this WR class, I think there are other guys like Allen, Rogers, Wilson, Wheaton, and Patton whose playing styles and skill sets better align with types that have already proven successful in the NFL.

Thanks to everyone for the great conversation. I'm quoting EBF here not to single him out but just to use as an example for my upcoming question.I'm going into my 2nd year playing dynasty, and absolutely love it. I'm not a film watcher (yet), so I soak up your work here to get a mental picture of a guy before the draft. Regarding the bolder statement above, or when you say you're avoiding a player, are you (meaning all the regular posters here, not just EBF) only looking for guys who have the potential to be a #1? Or do these #2 guys have a place on your roster? I find myself researching mostly these #2 guys because 1) there are few potential superstars out there, 2) the guys labeled as potential superstars are often head cases which I tend to shy away from, and 3) I've done well enough in my 3 dynasty leagues that I'm not in position to draft Patterson or Hunter or Rodgers. My WR's are weak enough that I've been starting combinations of guys like Donald Jones, Andrew Hawkins, Davone Bess, and Andre Roberts to go with Marques Colston in one league and Eric Decker in another. Maybe it's my own bias, but I'm not opposed to a roster full of guys like Hopkins and Patton to form a good base, especially if they're in good situations, and have an occasional riskier guy as a complement.

1) FF, just like the NFL, is about difference makers. Having solid, average talent across the board will lead you to maybe a .500 record. However, owning studs that give out 30+ FF games will carry you to victory regardless of the rest of your lineup more often than not. 2) WR1's just get more opportunities in targets/touchdowns than WR2's and therefore produce more points.

3) It's easier to replace a WR2 than a WR1 in the NFL. Brandon Marshall has been a WR1 on three different teams because he's wanted. He gets opportunity after opportunity, but yet players like Mario Manningham/Steve Breaston/Nate Washington didn't have big markets once they became free agents. A couple of WR2's that did get paid TJ Housh/Nate Burleson didn't work out and may have set a precedent moving forward.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

My first impressions on two more receivers:Terrance Williams looked very physical and strong. In the two highlight films he showed very good hands and enough speed to hurt the defense with the long ball. He is listed at 6-2 and 205 lbs, but looked much thicker and stronger. He is not afraid mix it up with the defense and drew a lot of PIs.Justin Hunter, listed at 6-4 and 200lbs, looked a little frail and seemed to go down very easy on contact. His positives are his size, his ability to stretch the field and a tremendous target range.

Watch more tape, williams has hands issues. Biggest issue seemed to be body catching.

Which film do you recommend? I have to admit my initial impression of Williams was very positive. I didn't see him fighting with the ball and he was very physical.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

I am noticing a personal bias as I dig into the rookie prospects. I am shying away from in the smaller WRs such as Austin (5-9) or Bailey (5-10). With exception to Wes Welker, all the elite WRs seem to be 6-1 or taller. I feel like these smaller WRs will end up in the slot which will limit playing time and targets. Mistake?

 

[tdmills]

I am noticing a personal bias as I dig into the rookie prospects. I am shying away from in the smaller WRs such as Austin (5-9) or Bailey (5-10). With exception to Wes Welker, all the elite WRs seem to be 6-1 or taller. I feel like these smaller WRs will end up in the slot which will limit playing time and targets. Mistake?

This is my personal theory in FF as well. Which is why I have many people argue with me about Randall Cobb or Percy Harvin being highly ranked. I just don't see shorter WR's having sustained FF success.

 

[tdmills]

CBS Sports' Dane Brugler spoke with one NFL scout who liked Clemson WR DeAndre Hopkins more than his projected mid-to-late first-round slot.The scout "raved" about the Clemson product. Hopkins' best trait is his willingness to go up and get targets at the catch point, with strong hands and good body positioning. He creates separation by setting up his routes, and Hopkins has deceptive long speed.

 

[MAC_32]

My first impressions on two more receivers:Terrance Williams looked very physical and strong. In the two highlight films he showed very good hands and enough speed to hurt the defense with the long ball. He is listed at 6-2 and 205 lbs, but looked much thicker and stronger. He is not afraid mix it up with the defense and drew a lot of PIs.Justin Hunter, listed at 6-4 and 200lbs, looked a little frail and seemed to go down very easy on contact. His positives are his size, his ability to stretch the field and a tremendous target range.

Watch more tape, williams has hands issues. Biggest issue seemed to be body catching.

Which film do you recommend? I have to admit my initial impression of Williams was very positive. I didn't see him fighting with the ball and he was very physical.

Not west virginia and k st. That was him at his best. I would guess somewhere within Oklahoma, Texas, Oklahoma State, and ucla. Those were the Baylor games I watched, noticed similar bad habits in all of them. Needs coached up.

 

[MAC_32]

I am noticing a personal bias as I dig into the rookie prospects. I am shying away from in the smaller WRs such as Austin (5-9) or Bailey (5-10). With exception to Wes Welker, all the elite WRs seem to be 6-1 or taller. I feel like these smaller WRs will end up in the slot which will limit playing time and targets. Mistake?

If you can make plays you will be on the field. And I think there is a misconception about little guys in the slot. A lot of them play outside too. Slot isn't a bad thing anyway, more three wr sets than ever before.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

I am noticing a personal bias as I dig into the rookie prospects. I am shying away from in the smaller WRs such as Austin (5-9) or Bailey (5-10). With exception to Wes Welker, all the elite WRs seem to be 6-1 or taller. I feel like these smaller WRs will end up in the slot which will limit playing time and targets. Mistake?

If you can make plays you will be on the field. And I think there is a misconception about little guys in the slot. A lot of them play outside too. Slot isn't a bad thing anyway, more three wr sets than ever before.

No argument there, and I forgot about Harvin. The jury is still out on Cobb but he looks like an impact player. But the guys under 6 feet seem to be the exception rather than the rule at first glance. So it is more of a probability game for me.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

My first impressions on two more receivers:Terrance Williams looked very physical and strong. In the two highlight films he showed very good hands and enough speed to hurt the defense with the long ball. He is listed at 6-2 and 205 lbs, but looked much thicker and stronger. He is not afraid mix it up with the defense and drew a lot of PIs.Justin Hunter, listed at 6-4 and 200lbs, looked a little frail and seemed to go down very easy on contact. His positives are his size, his ability to stretch the field and a tremendous target range.

Watch more tape, williams has hands issues. Biggest issue seemed to be body catching.

Which film do you recommend? I have to admit my initial impression of Williams was very positive. I didn't see him fighting with the ball and he was very physical.

Not west virginia and k st. That was him at his best. I would guess somewhere within Oklahoma, Texas, Oklahoma State, and ucla. Those were the Baylor games I watched, noticed similar bad habits in all of them. Needs coached up.

The Texas game was one of the tapes I watched. I watched the tape posted on the Draft Breakdown site and to be honest I did not the the issue you mention. I will dig a little deeper...

 

[Faust]

NFP Mock Draft - Version 6.0

 

[Faust]

Zach Ertz, Fluid Mover

 

[tdmills]

NFP Mock Draft - Version 6.0

Quinton Patton at 21 overall, wow.

 

[Faust]

Gauging Mike Glennon

 

[Donnybrook]

NFP Mock Draft - Version 6.0

All the receivers seem to have moved up 15 spots in Lande's world. It seems odd being that most charcterize this draft as being deep class without any elite wideouts. Lande makes me miss Wes Bunting.

 

[DexterDew]

i found that odd, too. I would think with such depth at WR that teams would be more willing to wait on the position (unless they have a clear cut favorite)

 

[EBF]

I'm going into my 2nd year playing dynasty, and absolutely love it. I'm not a film watcher (yet), so I soak up your work here to get a mental picture of a guy before the draft. Regarding the bolder statement above, or when you say you're avoiding a player, are you (meaning all the regular posters here, not just EBF) only looking for guys who have the potential to be a #1? Or do these #2 guys have a place on your roster?

I think it varies on a case-by-case basis. In general, I'd prefer to draft someone who has the potential to become a #1 WR. The reasons for this are pretty obvious. The really top level players like AJ Green, Calvin Johnson, and Brandon Marshall are the guys who score the most points year to year. And thus they're the guys who win you the most games. Ideally, you'd have a team full of them. But the flipside is that those players are rare. Only a fraction of highly touted prospects end up having that kind of career. And lots of guys like Roy Williams, Devin Thomas, Donte Stallworth, Braylon Edwards, Robert Meachem, Chad Jackson, and Mike Williams (USC) who looked the part on paper didn't have the goods when push came to shove. If you focus too much on things like height and 40 time, you're going to end up with a lot of these busts on your roster. With some of the owners in my leagues, all they do is draft 6'3"+ receivers and/or receivers with 4.3 speed. I think that can be a mistake. In certain situations, I'd rather take a low ceiling/high floor type. For example, last year I had Rueben Randle rated ahead of Stephen Hill and Brian Quick. Those guys had more impressive athletic measurables, but IMO Randle was the better player. By a wide enough margin that I preferred him to those two. A guy like Quinton Patton could end up being that type of player this year. Doesn't have standout height or speed. Yet he's one of the more polished and effective receivers in this class. It wouldn't be all that surprising to see him outperform a guy like Terrance Williams, who's taller and maybe faster on the track. For all the talk about elite #1 receivers, realize that they're a rare breed. Right now you've got Andre Johnson, Roddy White, Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, Vincent Jackson, Brandon Marshall, Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, AJ Green, Reggie Wayne, Steve Smith (almost past it) and maybe Michael Crabtree, Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, and Percy Harvin. That's only about 14-16 guys. In most 10-14 team FF leagues, you're going to have 30-40 WRs starting for teams every week. And that's without factoring in byes and injuries. In a perfect world you'd be able to start 3-4 guys from that list above, but that's not going to be a realistic expectation unless you get really lucky or you're just great at spotting value and fleecing people. Once you get outside that WR1 group, you have guys like Mike Williams, Eric Decker, Jordy Nelson, Steve Johnson, Antonio Brown, and Miles Austin. These guys aren't really good enough to be elite #1 receivers from year to year. But they're very good #2 options. Good enough to threaten top 15-30 ppg numbers every season. If you roll one of these guys out as your third receiver, you're not bleeding points. He might actually be giving you an edge. So the idea that only superstar players win FF games is a bit off the mark. I believe that if you simply field a team of solid players at every position (i.e. your QB scores as a mid-level QB1, your RB1 scores as a mid-level RB1, your RB2 scores as a mid-level RB2, and so on...) you'll probably make the playoffs simply because so many of the other teams in your league will have holes somewhere. The bigger point I'm trying to make is that it's sometimes sensible to take the safe WR2 prospect over the boom-or-bust prospect with WR1 potential. If you're convinced that a guy like Patterson is going to bust and that Patton has a 90% chance to become a Nate Burleson/Steve Johnson type of receiver, I don't think it would be wrong to take the safe, boring pick (for the record, that's NOT my take on those two prospects). Basically...A good #1 WR is worth more than a good #2 WR. But a good #2 WR is worth more than some scrub who busts. There is room on winning FF teams for solid WR2 types like Decker and Brown. Not only are they useful players themselves, but they're also useful trade assets if you eventually want to upgrade to a WR1. I'd still much rather have a Vincent Jackson or Dez Bryant, but there's only 1-2 of those in most draft classes.

 

[TheFanatic]

NFP Mock Draft - Version 6.0

All the receivers seem to have moved up 15 spots in Lande's world. It seems odd being that most charcterize this draft as being deep class without any elite wideouts. Lande makes me miss Wes Bunting.

And wasn't somebody just being ripped in here for saying that there were four or five slam dunk first round and now it looks like that is more and more of a reality. And one in the top 10 now. Compared to what I see in Julio and AJ green, I think that's just crazy talk.

 

[tdmills]

I'm going into my 2nd year playing dynasty, and absolutely love it. I'm not a film watcher (yet), so I soak up your work here to get a mental picture of a guy before the draft. Regarding the bolder statement above, or when you say you're avoiding a player, are you (meaning all the regular posters here, not just EBF) only looking for guys who have the potential to be a #1? Or do these #2 guys have a place on your roster?

I think it varies on a case-by-case basis. In general, I'd prefer to draft someone who has the potential to become a #1 WR. The reasons for this are pretty obvious. The really top level players like AJ Green, Calvin Johnson, and Brandon Marshall are the guys who score the most points year to year. And thus they're the guys who win you the most games. Ideally, you'd have a team full of them. But the flipside is that those players are rare. Only a fraction of highly touted prospects end up having that kind of career. And lots of guys like Roy Williams, Devin Thomas, Donte Stallworth, Braylon Edwards, Robert Meachem, Chad Jackson, and Mike Williams (USC) who looked the part on paper didn't have the goods when push came to shove. If you focus too much on things like height and 40 time, you're going to end up with a lot of these busts on your roster. With some of the owners in my leagues, all they do is draft 6'3"+ receivers and/or receivers with 4.3 speed. I think that can be a mistake. In certain situations, I'd rather take a low ceiling/high floor type. For example, last year I had Rueben Randle rated ahead of Stephen Hill and Brian Quick. Those guys had more impressive athletic measurables, but IMO Randle was the better player. By a wide enough margin that I preferred him to those two. A guy like Quinton Patton could end up being that type of player this year. Doesn't have standout height or speed. Yet he's one of the more polished and effective receivers in this class. It wouldn't be all that surprising to see him outperform a guy like Terrance Williams, who's taller and maybe faster on the track. For all the talk about elite #1 receivers, realize that they're a rare breed. Right now you've got Andre Johnson, Roddy White, Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, Vincent Jackson, Brandon Marshall, Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, AJ Green, Reggie Wayne, Steve Smith (almost past it) and maybe Michael Crabtree, Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, and Percy Harvin. That's only about 14-16 guys. In most 10-14 team FF leagues, you're going to have 30-40 WRs starting for teams every week. And that's without factoring in byes and injuries. In a perfect world you'd be able to start 3-4 guys from that list above, but that's not going to be a realistic expectation unless you get really lucky or you're just great at spotting value and fleecing people. Once you get outside that WR1 group, you have guys like Mike Williams, Eric Decker, Jordy Nelson, Steve Johnson, Antonio Brown, and Miles Austin. These guys aren't really good enough to be elite #1 receivers from year to year. But they're very good #2 options. Good enough to threaten top 15-30 ppg numbers every season. If you roll one of these guys out as your third receiver, you're not bleeding points. He might actually be giving you an edge. So the idea that only superstar players win FF games is a bit off the mark. I believe that if you simply field a team of solid players at every position (i.e. your QB scores as a mid-level QB1, your RB1 scores as a mid-level RB1, your RB2 scores as a mid-level RB2, and so on...) you'll probably make the playoffs simply because so many of the other teams in your league will have holes somewhere. The bigger point I'm trying to make is that it's sometimes sensible to take the safe WR2 prospect over the boom-or-bust prospect with WR1 potential. If you're convinced that a guy like Patterson is going to bust and that Patton has a 90% chance to become a Nate Burleson/Steve Johnson type of receiver, I don't think it would be wrong to take the safe, boring pick (for the record, that's NOT my take on those two prospects). Basically...A good #1 WR is worth more than a good #2 WR. But a good #2 WR is worth more than some scrub who busts. There is room on winning FF teams for solid WR2 types like Decker and Brown. Not only are they useful players themselves, but they're also useful trade assets if you eventually want to upgrade to a WR1. I'd still much rather have a Vincent Jackson or Dez Bryant, but there's only 1-2 of those in most draft classes.

EBFI just want to make a point of clarification. When I say WR1, i'm literally talking about the #1 WR on a team vs a top 12 FF scoring WR. Players have ceilings and I don't believe some will ever be that #1 WR on their own team.

 

[TheFanatic]

Barkley was exposed as a bad decision maker under duress this year. It seems his price is correcting from a month ago after being over rated last year to under rated in December. I like him as a day two target to develop behind a vet. I don't like him on day one at all.

Agreed, I can see someone like KC or Arizona addressing a need in round one and taking Barkley in round two.

That might be ideal. KC picks up a LT and then grabs the QB. That way he's protected and there is no immediate crush to get him on the field. Let him hold the clipboard behind Cassel and then start in year two, in the mean time working heavily on the decision making.

Best case scenario for KC IMO:-resign Brandon Albert(he's a solid LT) and Bowe

-trade down(no player is worth the 1 overall)

-use one of those picks for a QB and the rest address some needs on the team

I think KC isn't that far away from being a solid team. OL is good/RB is good/WR could be if Baldwin develops/defense has some good talent as well.

We need to stop this right now. There aren't any players that are that coveted to get anyone to trade up and only a couple teams who might considering doing such a thing...

For someone against pissing matches I find this odd.If KC resigns Albert(like I pointed out earlier), then no player is worth the 1 overall pick(to them). Joekel and star lotulelei are the only players worth it IMO. So LT isn't a need and with Poe drafted in round one last year(despite not showing much), I would trade down.

Again, we need to stop this. See, in a perfect world a ton of teams would've traded out of the #1 pick over the last 10-15 years. I'm pretty sure the Raiders would like a do over on Russell. One simply doesn't trade out of the #1 simply because there is no great prospect to go #1. In fact, it's even harder to do so then. Trading out of the #1 requires someone to want to trade up to that position. The only way out of the #1 without a trading partner is by passing and letting the second team pick.

The used car salesman analogy is great. "Nobody is worth drafting #1, so I'll trade the #1 for a bunch of picks." Wait, who the heck would want to do that? Who would trade multiple first rounders for a pick that you say there are only a couple guys worthy of the pick, and that's only because this is a weak draft.

Every crappy team wants to pull a Hershal Walker type deal and dump their high draft pick who can only fill one hole to get many picks that will fill many holes. But that is seldom the reality.

Joekel looks to be a really good LT prospect. Not Odgen or Pace good, but looks good. He could be a guy an entire O Line could be based around. He might get some teams sniffing around with some draft picks. But what about Fisher? I believe some teams have him rated higher. Why not move down to the 4 or 5 or later and grab Fisher instead of breaking the bank on Joekel? With a guy only a whisker behind, or even ahead of Joekel, that works against the Chiefs as well as they don't hold the only card there. The Rams were able to pull it off last year at 2 with RGIII, but that was a premier QB, not an A- LT prospect where there is another one right behind him that some prefer.

Like I said, we have to stop with the trading down thing. It's nice to talk about and nice to dream but so is thinking about how you will spend the lottery winnings. You've gotta win it first, but doesn't mean it's not fun to talk about...

 

[tdmills]

Barkley was exposed as a bad decision maker under duress this year. It seems his price is correcting from a month ago after being over rated last year to under rated in December. I like him as a day two target to develop behind a vet. I don't like him on day one at all.

Agreed, I can see someone like KC or Arizona addressing a need in round one and taking Barkley in round two.

That might be ideal. KC picks up a LT and then grabs the QB. That way he's protected and there is no immediate crush to get him on the field. Let him hold the clipboard behind Cassel and then start in year two, in the mean time working heavily on the decision making.

Best case scenario for KC IMO:-resign Brandon Albert(he's a solid LT) and Bowe

-trade down(no player is worth the 1 overall)

-use one of those picks for a QB and the rest address some needs on the team

I think KC isn't that far away from being a solid team. OL is good/RB is good/WR could be if Baldwin develops/defense has some good talent as well.

We need to stop this right now. There aren't any players that are that coveted to get anyone to trade up and only a couple teams who might considering doing such a thing...

For someone against pissing matches I find this odd.If KC resigns Albert(like I pointed out earlier), then no player is worth the 1 overall pick(to them). Joekel and star lotulelei are the only players worth it IMO. So LT isn't a need and with Poe drafted in round one last year(despite not showing much), I would trade down.

Again, we need to stop this. See, in a perfect world a ton of teams would've traded out of the #1 pick over the last 10-15 years. I'm pretty sure the Raiders would like a do over on Russell. One simply doesn't trade out of the #1 simply because there is no great prospect to go #1. In fact, it's even harder to do so then. Trading out of the #1 requires someone to want to trade up to that position. The only way out of the #1 without a trading partner is by passing and letting the second team pick.

The used car salesman analogy is great. "Nobody is worth drafting #1, so I'll trade the #1 for a bunch of picks." Wait, who the heck would want to do that? Who would trade multiple first rounders for a pick that you say there are only a couple guys worthy of the pick, and that's only because this is a weak draft.

Every crappy team wants to pull a Hershal Walker type deal and dump their high draft pick who can only fill one hole to get many picks that will fill many holes. But that is seldom the reality.

Joekel looks to be a really good LT prospect. Not Odgen or Pace good, but looks good. He could be a guy an entire O Line could be based around. He might get some teams sniffing around with some draft picks. But what about Fisher? I believe some teams have him rated higher. Why not move down to the 4 or 5 or later and grab Fisher instead of breaking the bank on Joekel? With a guy only a whisker behind, or even ahead of Joekel, that works against the Chiefs as well as they don't hold the only card there. The Rams were able to pull it off last year at 2 with RGIII, but that was a premier QB, not an A- LT prospect where there is another one right behind him that some prefer.

Like I said, we have to stop with the trading down thing. It's nice to talk about and nice to dream but so is thinking about how you will spend the lottery winnings. You've gotta win it first, but doesn't mean it's not fun to talk about...

I'm glad you're choosing to put a ton of words/theory into my statement of trading down.I simply said no player is worth the #1 overall(for KC) and they should trade down. If KC nets the 15th overall and a 2nd round pick, is that being a used car salesman?

The odds of a team trading up is much higher now due to the CBA having limited rookie salaries. I'm sure a team such as Green Bay would give up their first 3 selections or two 1st round picks to get Joekel. Is that a rip off? Or Pittsburgh/SF trade up for Star to put them over the hump. Win-win trades can happen. Nobody said a Hershall Walker trade was happening. But multiple first round picks can happen as well.

YOU need to stop assuming

 

[TheFanatic]

Barkley was exposed as a bad decision maker under duress this year. It seems his price is correcting from a month ago after being over rated last year to under rated in December. I like him as a day two target to develop behind a vet. I don't like him on day one at all.

Agreed, I can see someone like KC or Arizona addressing a need in round one and taking Barkley in round two.

That might be ideal. KC picks up a LT and then grabs the QB. That way he's protected and there is no immediate crush to get him on the field. Let him hold the clipboard behind Cassel and then start in year two, in the mean time working heavily on the decision making.

Best case scenario for KC IMO:-resign Brandon Albert(he's a solid LT) and Bowe

-trade down(no player is worth the 1 overall)

-use one of those picks for a QB and the rest address some needs on the team

I think KC isn't that far away from being a solid team. OL is good/RB is good/WR could be if Baldwin develops/defense has some good talent as well.

We need to stop this right now. There aren't any players that are that coveted to get anyone to trade up and only a couple teams who might considering doing such a thing...

For someone against pissing matches I find this odd.If KC resigns Albert(like I pointed out earlier), then no player is worth the 1 overall pick(to them). Joekel and star lotulelei are the only players worth it IMO. So LT isn't a need and with Poe drafted in round one last year(despite not showing much), I would trade down.

Again, we need to stop this. See, in a perfect world a ton of teams would've traded out of the #1 pick over the last 10-15 years. I'm pretty sure the Raiders would like a do over on Russell. One simply doesn't trade out of the #1 simply because there is no great prospect to go #1. In fact, it's even harder to do so then. Trading out of the #1 requires someone to want to trade up to that position. The only way out of the #1 without a trading partner is by passing and letting the second team pick.

The used car salesman analogy is great. "Nobody is worth drafting #1, so I'll trade the #1 for a bunch of picks." Wait, who the heck would want to do that? Who would trade multiple first rounders for a pick that you say there are only a couple guys worthy of the pick, and that's only because this is a weak draft.

Every crappy team wants to pull a Hershal Walker type deal and dump their high draft pick who can only fill one hole to get many picks that will fill many holes. But that is seldom the reality.

Joekel looks to be a really good LT prospect. Not Odgen or Pace good, but looks good. He could be a guy an entire O Line could be based around. He might get some teams sniffing around with some draft picks. But what about Fisher? I believe some teams have him rated higher. Why not move down to the 4 or 5 or later and grab Fisher instead of breaking the bank on Joekel? With a guy only a whisker behind, or even ahead of Joekel, that works against the Chiefs as well as they don't hold the only card there. The Rams were able to pull it off last year at 2 with RGIII, but that was a premier QB, not an A- LT prospect where there is another one right behind him that some prefer.

Like I said, we have to stop with the trading down thing. It's nice to talk about and nice to dream but so is thinking about how you will spend the lottery winnings. You've gotta win it first, but doesn't mean it's not fun to talk about...

I'm glad you're choosing to put a ton of words/theory into my statement of trading down.I simply said no player is worth the #1 overall(for KC) and they should trade down. If KC nets the 15th overall and a 2nd round pick, is that being a used car salesman?

The odds of a team trading up is much higher now due to the CBA having limited rookie salaries. I'm sure a team such as Green Bay would give up their first 3 selections or two 1st round picks to get Joekel. Is that a rip off? Or Pittsburgh/SF trade up for Star to put them over the hump. Win-win trades can happen. Nobody said a Hershall Walker trade was happening. But multiple first round picks can happen as well.

YOU need to stop assuming

The 15th overall and a 2nd rounder? Seriously? They would get killed by the media and fans after what the Rams got last year for the 2nd overall. Pittsburgh? They have the 17th overall pick. If they slide back to 17, they would not be getting close to fair value. I know it is a down year, but trading the 1.1 for the 1.17 and 2.17 works in Fantasy football. Not the NFL. Yes it is a down year, but these guys are all relative to each other. A guy that is picked 17th overall in a down year is like moving the 1.1 for the 30th best player in a good year. Bad analogy, but hopefully you get the point. Jimmy Johnson's grading scale for draft pick trades still applies to these guys even in a down year. And Green Bay? They pick 26th with no extra picks in the first or second.My whole point here is that trading down seems ideal but not at all practical in 99% of the cases. Not sure why I bother to explain this when you think getting the 15 and a 2nd rounder is feasible. It just plain isn't. This is the NFL draft, not you and your buddies with your laptops at Buffalo Wild Wings. They need to move down a handful of spots and get a 1 next year, but that's not happening. They need to fill multiple holes not get a lid 1st and mid 2nd for the first overall. The owner would probably fire the GM on the spot for making that trade.

And yes, it does make it easier to make trades for the top picks with the rookie wage scale. But the fact that the top player is a LT with another one a whisker behind him if not better, then why trade for the 1.1 when you can get the 1.5 and get Fisher? Makes it even harder to trade out of the top spot with another guy grading so closely behind.

 

[ummich10]

Hopkins is another receiver that I'll probably be avoiding. I'm curious to see what his height/weight/speed is at the combine. If he really comes up aces there then that could change my opinion. Just watching his game clips though, I think he's a good receiver, but I also wonder if he isn't a bit of a tweener. He doesn't appear to have blazing downfield speed. He's tall, but not really that strong. Certainly not an overpowering presence in the possession game like a Crabtree, Boldin, or Blackmon. Overall, he seems like a skinny possession WR who excels because of his range and good overall athletic ability. It works well at the college level. At the next level, it's tough to see how he's going to have a clear advantage over the higher caliber of corners he'll be facing.

If you look at guys like Chris Harper and Marquise Goodwin, they're not complete receivers either. But at least in their case they have one elite trait that you can point to. Harper is so massive that he's going to be really difficult to cope with for 185-190 pound corners. Goodwin is a world class track athlete who will be more explosive than every defender who lines up against him. I'm not saying either of these guys is a lock for NFL stardom, but they have one skill that should translate seamlessly in the NFL. With Hopkins, I think there's more of a risk that he ends up being a jack-of-all-trades who simply isn't good enough in any given part of the game to become a #1 at the next level.

If you look at this WR class, I think there are other guys like Allen, Rogers, Wilson, Wheaton, and Patton whose playing styles and skill sets better align with types that have already proven successful in the NFL.

Thanks to everyone for the great conversation. I'm quoting EBF here not to single him out but just to use as an example for my upcoming question.I'm going into my 2nd year playing dynasty, and absolutely love it. I'm not a film watcher (yet), so I soak up your work here to get a mental picture of a guy before the draft. Regarding the bolder statement above, or when you say you're avoiding a player, are you (meaning all the regular posters here, not just EBF) only looking for guys who have the potential to be a #1? Or do these #2 guys have a place on your roster? I find myself researching mostly these #2 guys because 1) there are few potential superstars out there, 2) the guys labeled as potential superstars are often head cases which I tend to shy away from, and 3) I've done well enough in my 3 dynasty leagues that I'm not in position to draft Patterson or Hunter or Rodgers. My WR's are weak enough that I've been starting combinations of guys like Donald Jones, Andrew Hawkins, Davone Bess, and Andre Roberts to go with Marques Colston in one league and Eric Decker in another. Maybe it's my own bias, but I'm not opposed to a roster full of guys like Hopkins and Patton to form a good base, especially if they're in good situations, and have an occasional riskier guy as a complement.

1) FF, just like the NFL, is about difference makers. Having solid, average talent across the board will lead you to maybe a .500 record. However, owning studs that give out 30+ FF games will carry you to victory regardless of the rest of your lineup more often than not. 2) WR1's just get more opportunities in targets/touchdowns than WR2's and therefore produce more points.

3) It's easier to replace a WR2 than a WR1 in the NFL. Brandon Marshall has been a WR1 on three different teams because he's wanted. He gets opportunity after opportunity, but yet players like Mario Manningham/Steve Breaston/Nate Washington didn't have big markets once they became free agents. A couple of WR2's that did get paid TJ Housh/Nate Burleson didn't work out and may have set a precedent moving forward.

Agreed on everything. I guess the more leagues I've got, the more strategies I can try. You're right, I wouldn't want to rely on these guys for an entire roster and grab the potential studs if you can. It just seems like the next-big-thing types are relatively scarce and in high demand. My approach so far has been to not overpay even for the sure studs, take top players at selected other positions (Kuechly at 1.09 last year, Russell Wilson in the 2nd), and get better depth for those situations where the Da'Rick Rogers types don't pan out or are injured for half the year. My risk tolerance is pretty low though.What I'm taking away from this is that if I do get a lot of these WR2 types, I'm going to have churn them a bit faster than I planned in order to maximize their value before they hit the Burleson level. Can't hang on to them for too long.

Thanks for the input, hopefully one of these days I'll be able to contribute to these discussions about who separates better from press coverage and the like.

 

[Faust]

Arthur Brown, Tyrann Mathieu highlight buzzworthy prospects

 

[Faust]

from Rotoworld:

Scouts Inc.'s Todd McShay tweeted that West Virginia WR Tavon Austin "might be the quickest human being I've ever studied on tape."McShay's coworker Kevin Weidl responded with "not getting out of the first round." Austin is a joystick with the ball in his hands in the open field, but did have his set of struggles when facing Kenny Vaccaro in the slot. He is the type of playmaker teams look for in the first-round, despite his less than ideal size.Source: Todd McShay on Twitter

 

[tdmills]

Barkley was exposed as a bad decision maker under duress this year. It seems his price is correcting from a month ago after being over rated last year to under rated in December. I like him as a day two target to develop behind a vet. I don't like him on day one at all.

Agreed, I can see someone like KC or Arizona addressing a need in round one and taking Barkley in round two.

That might be ideal. KC picks up a LT and then grabs the QB. That way he's protected and there is no immediate crush to get him on the field. Let him hold the clipboard behind Cassel and then start in year two, in the mean time working heavily on the decision making.

Best case scenario for KC IMO:-resign Brandon Albert(he's a solid LT) and Bowe

-trade down(no player is worth the 1 overall)

-use one of those picks for a QB and the rest address some needs on the team

I think KC isn't that far away from being a solid team. OL is good/RB is good/WR could be if Baldwin develops/defense has some good talent as well.

We need to stop this right now. There aren't any players that are that coveted to get anyone to trade up and only a couple teams who might considering doing such a thing...

For someone against pissing matches I find this odd.If KC resigns Albert(like I pointed out earlier), then no player is worth the 1 overall pick(to them). Joekel and star lotulelei are the only players worth it IMO. So LT isn't a need and with Poe drafted in round one last year(despite not showing much), I would trade down.

Again, we need to stop this. See, in a perfect world a ton of teams would've traded out of the #1 pick over the last 10-15 years. I'm pretty sure the Raiders would like a do over on Russell. One simply doesn't trade out of the #1 simply because there is no great prospect to go #1. In fact, it's even harder to do so then. Trading out of the #1 requires someone to want to trade up to that position. The only way out of the #1 without a trading partner is by passing and letting the second team pick.

The used car salesman analogy is great. "Nobody is worth drafting #1, so I'll trade the #1 for a bunch of picks." Wait, who the heck would want to do that? Who would trade multiple first rounders for a pick that you say there are only a couple guys worthy of the pick, and that's only because this is a weak draft.

Every crappy team wants to pull a Hershal Walker type deal and dump their high draft pick who can only fill one hole to get many picks that will fill many holes. But that is seldom the reality.

Joekel looks to be a really good LT prospect. Not Odgen or Pace good, but looks good. He could be a guy an entire O Line could be based around. He might get some teams sniffing around with some draft picks. But what about Fisher? I believe some teams have him rated higher. Why not move down to the 4 or 5 or later and grab Fisher instead of breaking the bank on Joekel? With a guy only a whisker behind, or even ahead of Joekel, that works against the Chiefs as well as they don't hold the only card there. The Rams were able to pull it off last year at 2 with RGIII, but that was a premier QB, not an A- LT prospect where there is another one right behind him that some prefer.

Like I said, we have to stop with the trading down thing. It's nice to talk about and nice to dream but so is thinking about how you will spend the lottery winnings. You've gotta win it first, but doesn't mean it's not fun to talk about...

I'm glad you're choosing to put a ton of words/theory into my statement of trading down.I simply said no player is worth the #1 overall(for KC) and they should trade down. If KC nets the 15th overall and a 2nd round pick, is that being a used car salesman?

The odds of a team trading up is much higher now due to the CBA having limited rookie salaries. I'm sure a team such as Green Bay would give up their first 3 selections or two 1st round picks to get Joekel. Is that a rip off? Or Pittsburgh/SF trade up for Star to put them over the hump. Win-win trades can happen. Nobody said a Hershall Walker trade was happening. But multiple first round picks can happen as well.

YOU need to stop assuming

The 15th overall and a 2nd rounder? Seriously? They would get killed by the media and fans after what the Rams got last year for the 2nd overall. Pittsburgh? They have the 17th overall pick. If they slide back to 17, they would not be getting close to fair value. I know it is a down year, but trading the 1.1 for the 1.17 and 2.17 works in Fantasy football. Not the NFL. Yes it is a down year, but these guys are all relative to each other. A guy that is picked 17th overall in a down year is like moving the 1.1 for the 30th best player in a good year. Bad analogy, but hopefully you get the point. Jimmy Johnson's grading scale for draft pick trades still applies to these guys even in a down year. And Green Bay? They pick 26th with no extra picks in the first or second.My whole point here is that trading down seems ideal but not at all practical in 99% of the cases. Not sure why I bother to explain this when you think getting the 15 and a 2nd rounder is feasible. It just plain isn't. This is the NFL draft, not you and your buddies with your laptops at Buffalo Wild Wings. They need to move down a handful of spots and get a 1 next year, but that's not happening. They need to fill multiple holes not get a lid 1st and mid 2nd for the first overall. The owner would probably fire the GM on the spot for making that trade.

And yes, it does make it easier to make trades for the top picks with the rookie wage scale. But the fact that the top player is a LT with another one a whisker behind him if not better, then why trade for the 1.1 when you can get the 1.5 and get Fisher? Makes it even harder to trade out of the top spot with another guy grading so closely behind.

First i'm a used car salesman and want Hershal Walker deals. Now i'm getting GM's fired.You're a hypocrite on a trip.

 

[tdmills]

Hopkins is another receiver that I'll probably be avoiding. I'm curious to see what his height/weight/speed is at the combine. If he really comes up aces there then that could change my opinion. Just watching his game clips though, I think he's a good receiver, but I also wonder if he isn't a bit of a tweener. He doesn't appear to have blazing downfield speed. He's tall, but not really that strong. Certainly not an overpowering presence in the possession game like a Crabtree, Boldin, or Blackmon. Overall, he seems like a skinny possession WR who excels because of his range and good overall athletic ability. It works well at the college level. At the next level, it's tough to see how he's going to have a clear advantage over the higher caliber of corners he'll be facing.

If you look at guys like Chris Harper and Marquise Goodwin, they're not complete receivers either. But at least in their case they have one elite trait that you can point to. Harper is so massive that he's going to be really difficult to cope with for 185-190 pound corners. Goodwin is a world class track athlete who will be more explosive than every defender who lines up against him. I'm not saying either of these guys is a lock for NFL stardom, but they have one skill that should translate seamlessly in the NFL. With Hopkins, I think there's more of a risk that he ends up being a jack-of-all-trades who simply isn't good enough in any given part of the game to become a #1 at the next level.

If you look at this WR class, I think there are other guys like Allen, Rogers, Wilson, Wheaton, and Patton whose playing styles and skill sets better align with types that have already proven successful in the NFL.

Thanks to everyone for the great conversation. I'm quoting EBF here not to single him out but just to use as an example for my upcoming question.I'm going into my 2nd year playing dynasty, and absolutely love it. I'm not a film watcher (yet), so I soak up your work here to get a mental picture of a guy before the draft. Regarding the bolder statement above, or when you say you're avoiding a player, are you (meaning all the regular posters here, not just EBF) only looking for guys who have the potential to be a #1? Or do these #2 guys have a place on your roster? I find myself researching mostly these #2 guys because 1) there are few potential superstars out there, 2) the guys labeled as potential superstars are often head cases which I tend to shy away from, and 3) I've done well enough in my 3 dynasty leagues that I'm not in position to draft Patterson or Hunter or Rodgers. My WR's are weak enough that I've been starting combinations of guys like Donald Jones, Andrew Hawkins, Davone Bess, and Andre Roberts to go with Marques Colston in one league and Eric Decker in another. Maybe it's my own bias, but I'm not opposed to a roster full of guys like Hopkins and Patton to form a good base, especially if they're in good situations, and have an occasional riskier guy as a complement.

1) FF, just like the NFL, is about difference makers. Having solid, average talent across the board will lead you to maybe a .500 record. However, owning studs that give out 30+ FF games will carry you to victory regardless of the rest of your lineup more often than not. 2) WR1's just get more opportunities in targets/touchdowns than WR2's and therefore produce more points.

3) It's easier to replace a WR2 than a WR1 in the NFL. Brandon Marshall has been a WR1 on three different teams because he's wanted. He gets opportunity after opportunity, but yet players like Mario Manningham/Steve Breaston/Nate Washington didn't have big markets once they became free agents. A couple of WR2's that did get paid TJ Housh/Nate Burleson didn't work out and may have set a precedent moving forward.

Agreed on everything. I guess the more leagues I've got, the more strategies I can try. You're right, I wouldn't want to rely on these guys for an entire roster and grab the potential studs if you can. It just seems like the next-big-thing types are relatively scarce and in high demand. My approach so far has been to not overpay even for the sure studs, take top players at selected other positions (Kuechly at 1.09 last year, Russell Wilson in the 2nd), and get better depth for those situations where the Da'Rick Rogers types don't pan out or are injured for half the year. My risk tolerance is pretty low though.What I'm taking away from this is that if I do get a lot of these WR2 types, I'm going to have churn them a bit faster than I planned in order to maximize their value before they hit the Burleson level. Can't hang on to them for too long.

Thanks for the input, hopefully one of these days I'll be able to contribute to these discussions about who separates better from press coverage and the like.

You're on the right path from what i've read. The overall theory isn't to gamble on all #1 risky types. It's to identify the ones you like. For example, Stephen Hill has that chance, but I wouldn't touch him. He's not one of the types I like or think will ever pan out.

 

[EBF]

Scouts Inc.'s Todd McShay tweeted that West Virginia WR Tavon Austin "might be the quickest human being I've ever studied on tape."

He'd better be. The only way to survive in the NFL if you're that small is to be insanely quick and fast. I don't quite know what to make of Tavon. Most mocks have him as a first round pick, but he doesn't fit the mold of a #1 NFL receiver. You can point to DeSean Jackson as a guy who has thrived despite being really small. You can point to Dexter McCluster as an example of an explosive tweener who has failed to make an impact in the NFL. Which way will Austin go?People are going to compare him to Percy Harvin. It seems like every slot player who's moderately explosive gets compared to Percy Harvin these days. But Austin isn't Harvin. Smaller. Not nearly as strong. With the right offensive coordinator, maybe he can be a great weapon. A place like New England that has gotten great value out of non-traditional weapons like Welker and Hernandez would be exciting. But overall, I'm inclined to favor players who fit an established mold instead of gambling that someone can be a trail blazer. Too much risk he just ends up being a part time player, IMO.

 

[ummich10]

Scouts Inc.'s Todd McShay tweeted that West Virginia WR Tavon Austin "might be the quickest human being I've ever studied on tape."

He'd better be. The only way to survive in the NFL if you're that small is to be insanely quick and fast. I don't quite know what to make of Tavon. Most mocks have him as a first round pick, but he doesn't fit the mold of a #1 NFL receiver. You can point to DeSean Jackson as a guy who has thrived despite being really small. You can point to Dexter McCluster as an example of an explosive tweener who has failed to make an impact in the NFL. Which way will Austin go?People are going to compare him to Percy Harvin. It seems like every slot player who's moderately explosive gets compared to Percy Harvin these days. But Austin isn't Harvin. Smaller. Not nearly as strong. With the right offensive coordinator, maybe he can be a great weapon. A place like New England that has gotten great value out of non-traditional weapons like Welker and Hernandez would be exciting. But overall, I'm inclined to favor players who fit an established mold instead of gambling that someone can be a trail blazer. Too much risk he just ends up being a part time player, IMO.

He'd be a guy I'd sell quickly on if I had him. He might produce if he had that right OC in the right system, but when that OC leaves to be a head coach somewhere, chances are slimmer the new OC would be able to keep the magic going. If he hits free agency, less of a market for a guy who might not be scheme diverse.

 

[Concept Coop]

He'd be a guy I'd sell quickly on if I had him. He might produce if he had that right OC in the right system, but when that OC leaves to be a head coach somewhere, chances are slimmer the new OC would be able to keep the magic going. If he hits free agency, less of a market for a guy who might not be scheme diverse.

I'm not an Austin guy, but I wouldn't say he is a scheme guy, either. The only question is his durability, being tiny, by NFL standards, in my opinion. I am sure most teams could use this a guy with his talents, and he is very talented. Now, if we are talking about him potentially being a WR1 - that's another story.

 

[ummich10]

He'd be a guy I'd sell quickly on if I had him. He might produce if he had that right OC in the right system, but when that OC leaves to be a head coach somewhere, chances are slimmer the new OC would be able to keep the magic going. If he hits free agency, less of a market for a guy who might not be scheme diverse.

I'm not an Austin guy, but I wouldn't say he is a scheme guy, either. The only question is his durability, being tiny, by NFL standards, in my opinion. I am sure most teams could use this a guy with his talents, and he is very talented. Now, if we are talking about him potentially being a WR1 - that's another story.

General question, not just about Austin - is the scheme a WR plays in during college less of a factor than a RB or QB? For example, I've seen the examples of Texas Tech QBs generally not being good pro QBs, at least in part due to the offense they run. Is coming from a shotgun, spread offense much of an issues for the WRs, and why or why not? Seems like the skills would easily translate. Still have to have good hands, separate, beat the press coverage,etc. Only thing I can think of at the moment is the routes might be different in terms of length, combinations, options,etc. But for the most part, isn't a slant or crossing route the same regardless of whether you're in a spread type offense or a traditional pro-style offenseI'm just a rookie at this level of analysis, thanks for tolerating all my questions tonight.

 

[Novice2]

Brandon Jacobs on steroids. 2016

 

[Xue]

Brandon Jacobs on steroids. 2016

Wrong thread. And steroids are for muscles, not fat. This guy is on McDonald's.