DYNASTY: Top 2013 College Prospects (1 Viewer)

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I want to see just how small Austin really is. He might be able to carve out a Warrick Dunn type role.

 

[tdmills]

I want to see just how small Austin really is. He might be able to carve out a Warrick Dunn type role.

Agreed, he could be smaller than listed. But i'm also intrigued to see his combine numbers, especially 3 cone/short shuttle/10 yard split.

 

[coolnerd]

He'd be a guy I'd sell quickly on if I had him. He might produce if he had that right OC in the right system, but when that OC leaves to be a head coach somewhere, chances are slimmer the new OC would be able to keep the magic going. If he hits free agency, less of a market for a guy who might not be scheme diverse.

I'm not an Austin guy, but I wouldn't say he is a scheme guy, either. The only question is his durability, being tiny, by NFL standards, in my opinion. I am sure most teams could use this a guy with his talents, and he is very talented. Now, if we are talking about him potentially being a WR1 - that's another story.

General question, not just about Austin - is the scheme a WR plays in during college less of a factor than a RB or QB? For example, I've seen the examples of Texas Tech QBs generally not being good pro QBs, at least in part due to the offense they run. Is coming from a shotgun, spread offense much of an issues for the WRs, and why or why not? Seems like the skills would easily translate. Still have to have good hands, separate, beat the press coverage,etc. Only thing I can think of at the moment is the routes might be different in terms of length, combinations, options,etc. But for the most part, isn't a slant or crossing route the same regardless of whether you're in a spread type offense or a traditional pro-style offenseI'm just a rookie at this level of analysis, thanks for tolerating all my questions tonight.

The issue is that some schemes in college don't ask players to run tradition NFL routes on a regular basis. Some spread schemes won't have WRs go over the middle in any meaningful way and triple option teams only have teh guys run two or three routes such as the out and fly pattern noramlly. those are just the first couple examples that came to mind.

 

[tdmills]

He'd be a guy I'd sell quickly on if I had him. He might produce if he had that right OC in the right system, but when that OC leaves to be a head coach somewhere, chances are slimmer the new OC would be able to keep the magic going. If he hits free agency, less of a market for a guy who might not be scheme diverse.

I'm not an Austin guy, but I wouldn't say he is a scheme guy, either. The only question is his durability, being tiny, by NFL standards, in my opinion. I am sure most teams could use this a guy with his talents, and he is very talented. Now, if we are talking about him potentially being a WR1 - that's another story.

General question, not just about Austin - is the scheme a WR plays in during college less of a factor than a RB or QB? For example, I've seen the examples of Texas Tech QBs generally not being good pro QBs, at least in part due to the offense they run. Is coming from a shotgun, spread offense much of an issues for the WRs, and why or why not? Seems like the skills would easily translate. Still have to have good hands, separate, beat the press coverage,etc. Only thing I can think of at the moment is the routes might be different in terms of length, combinations, options,etc. But for the most part, isn't a slant or crossing route the same regardless of whether you're in a spread type offense or a traditional pro-style offenseI'm just a rookie at this level of analysis, thanks for tolerating all my questions tonight.

The issue is that some schemes in college don't ask players to run tradition NFL routes on a regular basis. Some spread schemes won't have WRs go over the middle in any meaningful way and triple option teams only have teh guys run two or three routes such as the out and fly pattern noramlly. those are just the first couple examples that came to mind.

Agreed, another thing to consider is playing multiple positions. If a WR only plays the X(split WR on the left) and never plays in the slot or on the right side of the formation, I would expect some NFL teams to downgrade them for lack of versatility. I once was talking to an NFL scout that had concerns about Vontee Davis, CB out of Illinois and now plays for the Colts. He discussed how Davis always lined up in the boundary side(narrow side) of the field, so concerns were raised about him playing in space.

 

[TheFanatic]

Barkley was exposed as a bad decision maker under duress this year. It seems his price is correcting from a month ago after being over rated last year to under rated in December. I like him as a day two target to develop behind a vet. I don't like him on day one at all.

Agreed, I can see someone like KC or Arizona addressing a need in round one and taking Barkley in round two.

That might be ideal. KC picks up a LT and then grabs the QB. That way he's protected and there is no immediate crush to get him on the field. Let him hold the clipboard behind Cassel and then start in year two, in the mean time working heavily on the decision making.

Best case scenario for KC IMO:-resign Brandon Albert(he's a solid LT) and Bowe

-trade down(no player is worth the 1 overall)

-use one of those picks for a QB and the rest address some needs on the team

I think KC isn't that far away from being a solid team. OL is good/RB is good/WR could be if Baldwin develops/defense has some good talent as well.

We need to stop this right now. There aren't any players that are that coveted to get anyone to trade up and only a couple teams who might considering doing such a thing...

For someone against pissing matches I find this odd.If KC resigns Albert(like I pointed out earlier), then no player is worth the 1 overall pick(to them). Joekel and star lotulelei are the only players worth it IMO. So LT isn't a need and with Poe drafted in round one last year(despite not showing much), I would trade down.

Again, we need to stop this. See, in a perfect world a ton of teams would've traded out of the #1 pick over the last 10-15 years. I'm pretty sure the Raiders would like a do over on Russell. One simply doesn't trade out of the #1 simply because there is no great prospect to go #1. In fact, it's even harder to do so then. Trading out of the #1 requires someone to want to trade up to that position. The only way out of the #1 without a trading partner is by passing and letting the second team pick.

The used car salesman analogy is great. "Nobody is worth drafting #1, so I'll trade the #1 for a bunch of picks." Wait, who the heck would want to do that? Who would trade multiple first rounders for a pick that you say there are only a couple guys worthy of the pick, and that's only because this is a weak draft.

Every crappy team wants to pull a Hershal Walker type deal and dump their high draft pick who can only fill one hole to get many picks that will fill many holes. But that is seldom the reality.

Joekel looks to be a really good LT prospect. Not Odgen or Pace good, but looks good. He could be a guy an entire O Line could be based around. He might get some teams sniffing around with some draft picks. But what about Fisher? I believe some teams have him rated higher. Why not move down to the 4 or 5 or later and grab Fisher instead of breaking the bank on Joekel? With a guy only a whisker behind, or even ahead of Joekel, that works against the Chiefs as well as they don't hold the only card there. The Rams were able to pull it off last year at 2 with RGIII, but that was a premier QB, not an A- LT prospect where there is another one right behind him that some prefer.

Like I said, we have to stop with the trading down thing. It's nice to talk about and nice to dream but so is thinking about how you will spend the lottery winnings. You've gotta win it first, but doesn't mean it's not fun to talk about...

I'm glad you're choosing to put a ton of words/theory into my statement of trading down.I simply said no player is worth the #1 overall(for KC) and they should trade down. If KC nets the 15th overall and a 2nd round pick, is that being a used car salesman?

The odds of a team trading up is much higher now due to the CBA having limited rookie salaries. I'm sure a team such as Green Bay would give up their first 3 selections or two 1st round picks to get Joekel. Is that a rip off? Or Pittsburgh/SF trade up for Star to put them over the hump. Win-win trades can happen. Nobody said a Hershall Walker trade was happening. But multiple first round picks can happen as well.

YOU need to stop assuming

The 15th overall and a 2nd rounder? Seriously? They would get killed by the media and fans after what the Rams got last year for the 2nd overall. Pittsburgh? They have the 17th overall pick. If they slide back to 17, they would not be getting close to fair value. I know it is a down year, but trading the 1.1 for the 1.17 and 2.17 works in Fantasy football. Not the NFL. Yes it is a down year, but these guys are all relative to each other. A guy that is picked 17th overall in a down year is like moving the 1.1 for the 30th best player in a good year. Bad analogy, but hopefully you get the point. Jimmy Johnson's grading scale for draft pick trades still applies to these guys even in a down year. And Green Bay? They pick 26th with no extra picks in the first or second.My whole point here is that trading down seems ideal but not at all practical in 99% of the cases. Not sure why I bother to explain this when you think getting the 15 and a 2nd rounder is feasible. It just plain isn't. This is the NFL draft, not you and your buddies with your laptops at Buffalo Wild Wings. They need to move down a handful of spots and get a 1 next year, but that's not happening. They need to fill multiple holes not get a lid 1st and mid 2nd for the first overall. The owner would probably fire the GM on the spot for making that trade.

And yes, it does make it easier to make trades for the top picks with the rookie wage scale. But the fact that the top player is a LT with another one a whisker behind him if not better, then why trade for the 1.1 when you can get the 1.5 and get Fisher? Makes it even harder to trade out of the top spot with another guy grading so closely behind.

First i'm a used car salesman and want Hershal Walker deals. Now i'm getting GM's fired.You're a hypocrite on a trip.

You're the one that can't differentiate the NFL from fantasy football, because only in a fantasy is the 1.1 in the NFL draft going to be traded for the 1.15 and a second rounder. The fact that you can't see that is astonishing. Fantasy football is based on the NFL, not the other way around.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

Somewhat surprised at Gil Brandt's latest mock.

He has Terrance Williams as the first WR off the board.

 

[tdmills]

Somewhat surprised at Gil Brandt's latest mock.He has Terrance Williams as the first WR off the board.

Worst mock draft i've seen this year

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

Tavon Austin is my favorite player to watch in this draft. He's not the traditional #1 WR, but he's going to produce and produce very well if he's allowed the luxury to move around on a solid offense like Cobb in GB with capable WR's outside. We've already seen the matchup nightmares that good offensive minds have created with Sproles/Gronk/Hernandez/Cobb.i think he'd be absolute electric on someone like the Patriots or Bears that are going to allow him to bounce inside/outside and in the backfield. Landing spot will play a huge part where I rank him.

 

[EBF]

Tavon Austin is my favorite player to watch in this draft. He's not the traditional #1 WR, but he's going to produce and produce very well if he's allowed the luxury to move around on a solid offense like Cobb in GB with capable WR's outside. We've already seen the matchup nightmares that good offensive minds have created with Sproles/Gronk/Hernandez/Cobb.i think he'd be absolute electric on someone like the Patriots or Bears that are going to allow him to bounce inside/outside and in the backfield.

That's definitely my nightmare if I pass him up in my leagues. Of course, I heard some of the same things about McCluster and he ended up being a zero.Not saying Tavon = McCluster, but any time you have a weird player like this who doesn't fit an established mold, it's a bit of a gamble.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

JMO I would have never selected McCluster with Matt Cassel under center. I almost solely look at these hybrid players from a situation prospective. (Not to say I don't look at the traditional outside WRs from a situation. I just believe they'll have a much longer leash)

I can see how you may feel it's a bit of gamble. But I don't think you have to gamble at all. That's why I have a limited # of teams that I'd really propel Austin/McCluster types up in the rankings. (And those are the teams with established franchise QB's with established WR/TE's options on the outside)

If Austin goes to a team, say Miami, little chance I take him. And going to Miami, where I'm not sold on Tannehill, isn't one of the limited # of teams that get me to boost Austin (and that's even if they got 2 of Bowe/Jennings/Wallace)

Austin is a matchup nightmare. If he's not used as such (why I stress situation so much as some teams don't have that luxury because they simply lack WR/TE talent), you're not making the best use of him and his talents.

 

[Xue]

Tavon Austin reminds me of LaMichael James when he's a ball carrier. I'd like him to at least get up to 185. But if anyone is gonna draft a LaMichael James-type, it's Kerwynn Williams.

 

[TheFanatic]

Somewhat surprised at Gil Brandt's latest mock.He has Terrance Williams as the first WR off the board.

Worst mock draft i've seen this year

On that we agree. Terrible.

 

[Faust]

Scouts Inc.'s Todd McShay tweeted that West Virginia WR Tavon Austin "might be the quickest human being I've ever studied on tape."

He'd better be. The only way to survive in the NFL if you're that small is to be insanely quick and fast. I don't quite know what to make of Tavon. Most mocks have him as a first round pick, but he doesn't fit the mold of a #1 NFL receiver. You can point to DeSean Jackson as a guy who has thrived despite being really small. You can point to Dexter McCluster as an example of an explosive tweener who has failed to make an impact in the NFL. Which way will Austin go?People are going to compare him to Percy Harvin. It seems like every slot player who's moderately explosive gets compared to Percy Harvin these days. But Austin isn't Harvin. Smaller. Not nearly as strong. With the right offensive coordinator, maybe he can be a great weapon. A place like New England that has gotten great value out of non-traditional weapons like Welker and Hernandez would be exciting. But overall, I'm inclined to favor players who fit an established mold instead of gambling that someone can be a trail blazer. Too much risk he just ends up being a part time player, IMO.

 

[Faust]

Quarterbacks by the numbers: Geno Smith, EJ Manuel score well

 

[Concept Coop]

General question, not just about Austin - is the scheme a WR plays in during college less of a factor than a RB or QB? For example, I've seen the examples of Texas Tech QBs generally not being good pro QBs, at least in part due to the offense they run. Is coming from a shotgun, spread offense much of an issues for the WRs, and why or why not? Seems like the skills would easily translate. Still have to have good hands, separate, beat the press coverage,etc. Only thing I can think of at the moment is the routes might be different in terms of length, combinations, options,etc. But for the most part, isn't a slant or crossing route the same regardless of whether you're in a spread type offense or a traditional pro-style offenseI'm just a rookie at this level of analysis, thanks for tolerating all my questions tonight.

Good question, and I don't know, really. I think it matters much less than it does for a QB, as you pointed out. But I would assume most traits are constant despite scheme. Especially at the college level, teams aren't using traditional 11, X, Z, TE(Y) formations exclusively. And they often mix it up when they do. My guess would be not much, but honestly, your guess is as good as mine.

 

[Faust]

Draft Rumblings - What NFP is hearing from around the NFL.

 

[identikit]

Draft Rumblings - What NFP is hearing from around the NFL.

Thanks for posting this.Interesting take on Justin Hunter.

 

[Faust]

Pre-Combine Top-40

 

[jurb26]

Pre-Combine Top-40

Wow, those are some interesting rankings.

 

[JAA]

Pre-Combine Top-40

Wow, those are some interesting rankings.

no QB top 40 ... wowTavon Austin top WR ...

 

[identikit]

Pre-Combine Top-40

Wow, those are some interesting rankings.

no QB top 40 ... wowTavon Austin top WR ...

From the article:You will also notice the lack of quarterbacks. I will not be listing that position on big boards, since they are a breed of their own. It is just too hard to place them in this context. They will have their own list at a later date.

 

[JAA]

I want to see just how small Austin really is. He might be able to carve out a Warrick Dunn type role.

5'8

 

[Faust]

2013 NFL Draft: Top 100 draft board

 

[Faust]

Margus Hunt, Ezekiel Ansah emerge in search for next J.J. Watt

 

[Faust]

Star Lotulelei, Sharrif Floyd head loaded defensive tackle class

 

[Faust]

Mayock: Prepare for 'confusing' quarterback draft

 

[Faust]

Patterson the Playmakerand:

NFL Network's Mike Mayock said his "jaw dropped" after studying Tennessee WR Cordarrelle Patterson on tape."The one kid I'm really interested in seeing run (at the Combine) is the Patterson kid from Tennessee," said Mayock. "You heard me say earlier I haven't seen any really explosive difference makers (in this draft); This kid's only played one year of Division-I football. And I put the tape on, my jaw dropped. And he's big. ... He's 6-foot-3, 200-plus pounds, and he flies. And he makes people miss all over the field. All I know is his ceiling could be really exciting because he's so darn raw. And I can't wait to see him run."Source: The Rich Eisen Podcast

 

[jurb26]

Patterson the Playmaker

Couldn't agree with this more. The only thing I'd add is another nit pick or negative though. Patterson displayed difficulty getting off the LOS at time due to poor hand technique IMO. Otherwise, spot on. His game tape is sensational, despite what many in here are trying to say.... I didn't want to bring it up, but I wonder how many of the naysayers even know about the plays he made that were called back for one reason or another. There was a significant amount of them.

 

[Faust]

Compare & Contrast NFL Prospects - NFP Version 2.0

 

[Faust]

Montee Ball's decision to return to college about to pay off

 

[Faust]

Terrance Williams continues Baylor pipeline of WRs

 

[Faust]

Rich Eisen Podcast: Mike Mayock

 

[Faust]

Video Link:

Deepest and thinnest positions in draft

 

[Faust]

Pre-Combine Notes 5.0

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

FWIW... both of these blurbs match what my WR model is spitting out with current estimates. Never say never, but I can't think of anything Allen might do at the combine that would convince me he'll be an NFL WR capable of punishing a #1 CB or forcing a defense to double cover him. I believe he's a big mistake waiting to happen.I'm dying to get the exact specs on Bailey though.

- I am told Keenan Allen/WR/Cal has not looked anything special in combine training nor has he separated himself from the almost dozen wide outs he’s working out with in Florida. Its not that Allen has been bad rather he does not show the “wow” factor you want to see in a potential top twelve pick.- On the other hand I am told Stedman Bailey/WR/West Virginia has really stood out and could be the surprise at receiver during the combine. He’s run terrific routes, caught everything in sight and is running very fast. The comparison to former USC receiver Steve Smith is being made and like Smith, Bailey could end up in the second round.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

FWIW... both of these blurbs match what my WR model is spitting out with current estimates. Never say never, but I can't think of anything Allen might do at the combine that would convince me he'll be an NFL WR capable of punishing a #1 CB or forcing a defense to double cover him. I believe he's a big mistake waiting to happen.I'm dying to get the exact specs on Bailey though.

- I am told Keenan Allen/WR/Cal has not looked anything special in combine training nor has he separated himself from the almost dozen wide outs he’s working out with in Florida. Its not that Allen has been bad rather he does not show the “wow” factor you want to see in a potential top twelve pick.- On the other hand I am told Stedman Bailey/WR/West Virginia has really stood out and could be the surprise at receiver during the combine. He’s run terrific routes, caught everything in sight and is running very fast. The comparison to former USC receiver Steve Smith is being made and like Smith, Bailey could end up in the second round.

Have you changed your model since you detailed it here several years ago?

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Have you changed your model since you detailed it here several years ago?

They're nothing like what I posted way back when. The stuff I started with was pretty much wrong, but had some key pieces right that I built around. Everything is much cleaner and common-sensical now. And all four of them follow the same basic ideas.

 

[tdmills]

FWIW... both of these blurbs match what my WR model is spitting out with current estimates. Never say never, but I can't think of anything Allen might do at the combine that would convince me he'll be an NFL WR capable of punishing a #1 CB or forcing a defense to double cover him. I believe he's a big mistake waiting to happen.I'm dying to get the exact specs on Bailey though.

- I am told Keenan Allen/WR/Cal has not looked anything special in combine training nor has he separated himself from the almost dozen wide outs he’s working out with in Florida. Its not that Allen has been bad rather he does not show the “wow” factor you want to see in a potential top twelve pick.- On the other hand I am told Stedman Bailey/WR/West Virginia has really stood out and could be the surprise at receiver during the combine. He’s run terrific routes, caught everything in sight and is running very fast. The comparison to former USC receiver Steve Smith is being made and like Smith, Bailey could end up in the second round.

Allen's not a burner, so he's likely not going to be great in the "underwear olympics" I compare him to a Larry Fitzgerald type of WR, big/athletic possession guy.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

FWIW... both of these blurbs match what my WR model is spitting out with current estimates. Never say never, but I can't think of anything Allen might do at the combine that would convince me he'll be an NFL WR capable of punishing a #1 CB or forcing a defense to double cover him. I believe he's a big mistake waiting to happen.I'm dying to get the exact specs on Bailey though.

- I am told Keenan Allen/WR/Cal has not looked anything special in combine training nor has he separated himself from the almost dozen wide outs he’s working out with in Florida. Its not that Allen has been bad rather he does not show the “wow” factor you want to see in a potential top twelve pick.- On the other hand I am told Stedman Bailey/WR/West Virginia has really stood out and could be the surprise at receiver during the combine. He’s run terrific routes, caught everything in sight and is running very fast. The comparison to former USC receiver Steve Smith is being made and like Smith, Bailey could end up in the second round.

Allen's not a burner, so he's likely not going to be great in the "underwear olympics" I compare him to a Larry Fitzgerald type of WR, big/athletic possession guy.

I agree with you, except for the part about 'big' and 'Larry Fitzgerald'.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Have you changed your model since you detailed it here several years ago?

They're nothing like what I posted way back when. The stuff I started with was pretty much wrong, but had some key pieces right that I built around. Everything is much cleaner and common-sensical now. And all four of them follow the same basic ideas.

OK, thanks. I have been checking against that since you put it out that and it seems like the Thick guys are doing better than the others.

 

[tdmills]

FWIW... both of these blurbs match what my WR model is spitting out with current estimates. Never say never, but I can't think of anything Allen might do at the combine that would convince me he'll be an NFL WR capable of punishing a #1 CB or forcing a defense to double cover him. I believe he's a big mistake waiting to happen.I'm dying to get the exact specs on Bailey though.

- I am told Keenan Allen/WR/Cal has not looked anything special in combine training nor has he separated himself from the almost dozen wide outs he’s working out with in Florida. Its not that Allen has been bad rather he does not show the “wow” factor you want to see in a potential top twelve pick.- On the other hand I am told Stedman Bailey/WR/West Virginia has really stood out and could be the surprise at receiver during the combine. He’s run terrific routes, caught everything in sight and is running very fast. The comparison to former USC receiver Steve Smith is being made and like Smith, Bailey could end up in the second round.

Allen's not a burner, so he's likely not going to be great in the "underwear olympics" I compare him to a Larry Fitzgerald type of WR, big/athletic possession guy.

I agree with you, except for the part about 'big' and 'Larry Fitzgerald'.

Haha, no he's no Fitzgerald, similar type of player. I wish we could measure work ethic for these prospects(tangent).Allen is plenty big though at 6-3 210, Fitz is 6-3 218.

 

[JAA]

FWIW... both of these blurbs match what my WR model is spitting out with current estimates. Never say never, but I can't think of anything Allen might do at the combine that would convince me he'll be an NFL WR capable of punishing a #1 CB or forcing a defense to double cover him. I believe he's a big mistake waiting to happen.I'm dying to get the exact specs on Bailey though.

- I am told Keenan Allen/WR/Cal has not looked anything special in combine training nor has he separated himself from the almost dozen wide outs he’s working out with in Florida. Its not that Allen has been bad rather he does not show the “wow” factor you want to see in a potential top twelve pick.- On the other hand I am told Stedman Bailey/WR/West Virginia has really stood out and could be the surprise at receiver during the combine. He’s run terrific routes, caught everything in sight and is running very fast. The comparison to former USC receiver Steve Smith is being made and like Smith, Bailey could end up in the second round.

Allen's not a burner, so he's likely not going to be great in the "underwear olympics" I compare him to a Larry Fitzgerald type of WR, big/athletic possession guy.

I agree with you, except for the part about 'big' and 'Larry Fitzgerald'.

Haha, no he's no Fitzgerald, similar type of player. I wish we could measure work ethic for these prospects(tangent).Allen is plenty big though at 6-3 210, Fitz is 6-3 218.

Bailey is prolly 5'11/6' and 200-210

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Bailey is prolly 5'11/6' and 200-210

He's listed at 69.5" and 195. But that would give him a build close to Golden Tate, and I don't think he's that stocky.I think he's either a bit taller, a bit lighter or both.

 

[EBF]

I'm not surprised that Allen looks like an ordinary guy in workouts. He isn't that fast or strong. In terms of the Fitz comparison, I'd guess that Larry has 10-15 pounds of muscle on Allen. He was 225 at the combine and looks more like that than the 218 listed on ESPN. I'd guess that Allen checks in at something like 210. He probably won't run any faster than 4.50. I think he's a bit like a Randle/Crabtree/Blackmon in the sense that what you get on the field is better than what you get on paper. He might be slightly overrated, but at the same time I think he's likely to become a good NFL player. He's good at all the little things. Quick feet. Good hands. Instinctive player. It's hard to envision him becoming a total bust.

 

[cstu]

Montee Ball's decision to return to college about to pay off

I'll admit I was wrong about Ball's decision to go back to school. He still doesn't bring much to the table as a receiver but he's a true workhorse back. I

 

[ctrlaltdefeat]

Here is an early startup that included rookies for reference. I would never take lattimore this early but some people like different players I guess.  1 (5.12) Giovani Bernard RB North Carolina2 (6.01) Eddie Lacy RB Alabama3 (6.07) Marcus Lattimore South Carolina4 (7.06) Le’Veon Bell Michigan State5 (7.10) Andre Ellington Clemson6 (7.11) Cordarelle Patterson WR Tennessee7 (8.07) Keenan Allen WR Cal8 (9.03) Montee Ball RB Wisconsin9 (10.07) Joseph Randle RB Oklahoma State10 (11.02) Geno Smith QB West Virginia11 (11.06) DeAndre Hopkins WR Clemson12 (13.11) Tavon Austin WR West Virginia13 (13.12) Justin Hunter WR Tennessee14 (14.02) Ray Graham RB Pitt15 (14.05) Zac Stacy RB Vanderbilt16 (14.10) Robert Woods WR USC17 (14.11) Johnathan Franklin RB UCLA18 (15.02) Stepfan Taylor RB Stanford19 (15.08) Christine Michael RB Texas A&M20 (15.11) Jawan Jamison RB Rutgers21 (16.02) Tyler Eifert TE Notre Dame22 (16.03) Da’Rick Rogers WR Tennessee Tech23 (16.05) Chris Harper WR Kansas State24 (16.11) Terrance Williams WR Bayler25 (17.03) Kenjon Barner RB Oregon26 (17.06) Quinton Patton WR Louisiana Tech27 (17.11) Mike Gillislee RB Florida28 (18.01) Zach Ertz TE Stanford29 (18.03) Knile Davis RB Arkansas30 (18.05) Ryan Swope WR Texas A&M31 (18.07) Mike Glennon QB NC State32 (20.03) Matt Barkley QB USC

 

[ZWK]

I've been doing some statistical analysis of college WR production in this thread. I looked at a combination of the stats which seem most likely to predict NFL success, including big plays (TDs & long gains), yards per target, and yards per team pass attempt. Most successful NFL receivers who entered the league within the past several years had strong college production. That means that a lack of production is a warning sign (although strong college production is far from being a guarantee of NFL success - plenty of players who put up big numbers in college don't succeed in the NFL).

It looks like there are 6 WRs in this draft class who have the level of production that is typical of receivers who have turned out to be successful in the NFL: Terrance Williams, Stedman Bailey, Tavon Austin, Quinton Patton, Marquess Wilson, and DeAndre Hopkins. Several other players are at least borderline - they're towards the low end of what the successful NFL WRs did, but still within that range - including Robert Woods, Justin Hunter, and Markus Wheaton. Keenan Allen and Cordarrelle Patterson did not even produce at that level (20 out of 20 successful NFL WRs produced more than them in college), which would make me nervous about taking either of them as the first WR off the board.

 

[Xue]

I've been doing some statistical analysis of college WR production in this thread. I looked at a combination of the stats which seem most likely to predict NFL success, including big plays (TDs & long gains), yards per target, and yards per team pass attempt. Most successful NFL receivers who entered the league within the past several years had strong college production. That means that a lack of production is a warning sign (although strong college production is far from being a guarantee of NFL success - plenty of players who put up big numbers in college don't succeed in the NFL).It looks like there are 6 WRs in this draft class who have the level of production that is typical of receivers who have turned out to be successful in the NFL: Terrance Williams, Stedman Bailey, Tavon Austin, Quinton Patton, Marquess Wilson, and DeAndre Hopkins. Several other players are at least borderline - they're towards the low end of what the successful NFL WRs did, but still within that range - including Robert Woods, Justin Hunter, and Markus Wheaton. Keenan Allen and Cordarrelle Patterson did not even produce at that level (20 out of 20 successful NFL WRs produced more than them in college), which would make me nervous about taking either of them as the first WR off the board.

Is there a way to "adjust" or "normalize" WR stats based on their QB's performance? I mean having Geno Smith undeniably helps Bailey and Austin. Imagine what Keenan Allen could do with a real QB, instead of an awful Zach Maynard.

 

[ZWK]

I've been doing some statistical analysis of college WR production in this thread. I looked at a combination of the stats which seem most likely to predict NFL success, including big plays (TDs & long gains), yards per target, and yards per team pass attempt. Most successful NFL receivers who entered the league within the past several years had strong college production. That means that a lack of production is a warning sign (although strong college production is far from being a guarantee of NFL success - plenty of players who put up big numbers in college don't succeed in the NFL).It looks like there are 6 WRs in this draft class who have the level of production that is typical of receivers who have turned out to be successful in the NFL: Terrance Williams, Stedman Bailey, Tavon Austin, Quinton Patton, Marquess Wilson, and DeAndre Hopkins. Several other players are at least borderline - they're towards the low end of what the successful NFL WRs did, but still within that range - including Robert Woods, Justin Hunter, and Markus Wheaton. Keenan Allen and Cordarrelle Patterson did not even produce at that level (20 out of 20 successful NFL WRs produced more than them in college), which would make me nervous about taking either of them as the first WR off the board.

Is there a way to "adjust" or "normalize" WR stats based on their QB's performance? I mean having Geno Smith undeniably helps Bailey and Austin. Imagine what Keenan Allen could do with a real QB, instead of an awful Zach Maynard.

One team-adjusted stat that I do have is "yards per team pass attempt", which (I'd expect) will generally favor the go-to receiver on a team with a mediocre passing game, compared with a guy who is one of many good targets on a high-flying passing attack. Allen did do pretty well on that stat - without it his score would be about half of the +3.9 that it is - but that stat doesn't have all that much weight in my formula. Maybe it should have more?There are better ways to adjust for the quality of the team's passing game, but they require having team data (e.g., passing yards, passing TDs, total TDs) which I don't have. Whitney26 has done some analyses along those lines - his results are linked from here. Keenan Allen does come out significantly higher in his numbers, as do Martel Moore and Emory Blake.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Tinkering with Allen's pre-combine (estimated) comparables I noticed that all of them had similar adjusted draft positions (draft position adjusted for things like small schools, previous injury, etc -- basically trying to separate perceived talent from perceived risk).

WR A	 52WR B	 64WR C	 70WR D	 77WR E	 78WR F	 98WR G	 71K Allen	 ??

That's a very tight range, especially given that there were some extenuating circumstances for WR F.So if Allen measures close to his current estimates (74.5" -- 210 -- ~4.5) I think it's pretty unlikely he's a first round pick, and it wouldn't be surprising to see him go in the third. Especially given that those are ordered in terms of their collegiate performance metric.ETA: there is no adjustment to Allen's draft position -- so his actual draft position and his adjusted draft position will be the same.