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[DYNASTY] Top 30 QB Rankings (1 Viewer)

EBF

Footballguy
I have a lot of free time at work today, so I think I'll crank out some dynasty rankings. Here are the QBs:

GREEN means I think this player is a good value at his ADP.

RED means I think this player is a bad value at his ADP and should be avoided.

1. Tom Brady - You can' take anyone else at QB1, but he's being overdrafted on the basis of a career year. Minimal, if any, difference between him and Manning.

2. Peyton Manning - Money in the bank. Injury doesn't look like a serious concern.

3. Ben Roethlisberger - Third best QB in the NFL. Should be good for a long time.

4. Tony Romo - Good QB. What happens when Owens hits the wall?

5. Drew Brees - As long as he keeps throwing a ton of passes, he'll keep being a top FF QB. The Saints are stacked in the passing game.

6. Carson Palmer - Has regressed since his breakout season, but should still be considered a top dynasty QB.

7. Jay Cutler - Early stats are encouraging. At worst he should hang around the league and give you fringe top 10 numbers for the next few years.

8. Donovan McNabb - Has been one of the better FF QBs of the past decade and still has some gas in the tank.

9. Matt Hasselbeck - Not flashy and getting older, but you can start him and feel okay about it.

10. Marc Bulger - Slipped in 2007 and may never again match his best seasons, but is still a viable option as a cheap QB1.

11. David Garrard - Quietly had a great 2007, but this is a run first team and the WR options are spotty.

12. Aaron Rodgers - The Packers seemed plenty willing to hand the reigns of their offense to this former first round pick. He's smart and accurate. An ideal QB2 because of his upside.

13. Matt Schaub - Has been solid since entering the league and had a good first year as a starter. Could be the next Hasselbeck.

14. Derek Anderson - Showed a lot of promise, but tailed off in the second half. Has always been a poor decision maker with high INT numbers. Accuracy is suspect.

15. Philip Rivers - Borderline starter with limited upside and downside. Best viewed as a backup FF QB.

16. Eli Manning - Super Bowl win has seemingly erased years of mediocrity from the minds of FF owners. Don't buy the hype yet.

17. Trent Edwards - Smart, confident, and accurate. Rookie stats were mediocre, but there's a lot to like despite the system.

18. Brady Quinn - Has a chance to be good and will be starting somewhere within the next 1-3 years.

19. Matt Leinart - Brutal in 2007 before getting hurt. He's still young though and the offense has potential. 2008 will be critical.

20. Vince Young - Young has a lot of potential, but until he shows something as a passer, I would keep him firmly among the dynasty QB2 ranks.

21. Joe Flacco - Rookie QBs are a total crapshoot. I like Flacco's upside more than Ryan's.

22. Matt Ryan - Top pick is worth a gamble as a QB2 or QB3. You could get a star or a total bust.

23. JaMarcus Russell - I have very little faith in his ability and the Raider organization as a whole, but his upside is enormous if he somehow puts it together.

24. Jason Campbell - Not bad, but hasn't provided many reasons for optimism. It doesn't seem like he'll ever be better than mediocre.

25. Tarvaris Jackson - Hasn't been impressive so far, but the staff seems content to give him a chance. Has some upside. Don't get your hopes up though.

26. Jake Delhomme - Has more value in redraft leagues, but is a cheap fringe QB1 option if you don't want to pay a premium for youth.

27. Brett Favre - If all you care about is 2008, he might be able to help you. Only draft him if he might start for you. He's worthless alonside an elite young QB.

28. Kevin Kolb - High pick should get a shot somewhere eventually.

29. Chad Henne - Nudged aside by Pennington, but has a chance to be the QB of the future.

30. Jon Kitna - Like a poor man's Delhomme or Favre. Can start for you in a pinch, but the hook could come at any moment.

Worth a look:

Sage Rosenfels - If Schaub should falter, Rosenfels could step in and produce QB2 numbers. May get a starting shot somewhere eventually.

Drew Stanton - Former 2nd round pick might be the heir to Kitna's INT-encrusted throne.

Matt Moore - Probably won't do anything, but you never know. Delhomme is getting long in the tooth.

Troy Smith - Always looked pretty good in college and may get an opportunity to prove himself.

Kevin O'Connell - Will be groomed for the backup role in New England. For now he's nearly worthless, but he could be something in a couple years.

Brian Brohm - If Rodgers flops, Brohm will get a chance to guide a dangerous offense.

Kellen Clemens - Early results were bad. Could resurface post-Favre.

 
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There are a lot of different routes you can go at QB in dynasty drafts this year. I don't think it would be a bad idea to pay a premium for one of the top 6 guys. You can also wait until the mid rounds and pick up McNabb. There's a nice cluster of high upside prospects available pretty late in the draft: Quinn, Russell, Edwards, Flacco, and Ryan. You don't have to pay much to get these guys and they all have the potential to develop into franchise FF QBs. Obviously I prefer Edwards and Quinn over the rest.

There will be more than a few busts like usual, but the two guys I really don't like this year are Manning and Anderson. Manning has been given too much credit for his solid postseason play. His regular season numbers have been mediocre throughout his career and he's shown little improvement recently. Anderson played well for a first year starter, but my guy call is that he's more of a fluke than a legitimate prospect. He has the physical ability to be great, but I don't think he has the accuracy or the intangibles.

 
18. Brady Quinn - Has a chance to be good and will be starting somewhere within the next 1-3 years.

24. Jason Campbell - Not bad, but hasn't provided many reasons for optimism. It doesn't seem like he'll ever be better than mediocre.
I'd flip these two - at least. I'm not down on Quinn really, but there's too many others that have at least shown something in the pros to take him that high. I'm probably higher on Campbell than many, but he's got all of the tools. He & Zorn seem to be developing a rapport, and I look for a spike in Campbell's production this year.
 
18. Brady Quinn - Has a chance to be good and will be starting somewhere within the next 1-3 years.

24. Jason Campbell - Not bad, but hasn't provided many reasons for optimism. It doesn't seem like he'll ever be better than mediocre.
I'd flip these two - at least. I'm not down on Quinn really, but there's too many others that have at least shown something in the pros to take him that high. I'm probably higher on Campbell than many, but he's got all of the tools. He & Zorn seem to be developing a rapport, and I look for a spike in Campbell's production this year.
I agree that Campbell has a chance to improve this year, but he has looked very ordinary through two seasons as a starter. Even though Quinn hasn't played much, I think he has a better chance of becoming a difference maker.
 
:popcorn:

Great list, as usual, EBF.

I question whether Hasselbeck and Bulger will remain startable assets this season. I think their rankings depend almost solely in your confidence level to start them weekly. Personally, I've reached the point where I wouldn't want to rely on either one of them, so their value necessarily drops below the next tier for me.

Hasselbeck deserves respect coming off a fantastic season, but I just don't think it's repeatable with a considerable drop off in receivers and an upgrade to the running game. Bulger can't stay healthy, is in charge of an aging passing offense, and was never good in the red zone. He has some major bounce back potential, but the Spidey sense isn't tingling yet.

 
:shrug: Great list, as usual, EBF.I question whether Hasselbeck and Bulger will remain startable assets this season. I think their rankings depend almost solely in your confidence level to start them weekly. Personally, I've reached the point where I wouldn't want to rely on either one of them, so their value necessarily drops below the next tier for me.
I can't say I really disagree. I haven't picked either guy this season, but I guess you could say they've "earned" those spots based on their success in recent years. There's definitely a new group of players threatening to seize those spots (Garrard, Schaub, Rodgers, Anderson).
 
:thumbdown: And I think the time is now for Bulger to quietly slip off into obsurity. Hasslebeck seems - to me at least - to be good for his usual production for another 2-3 seasons. Agreed on the up-and-coming guys, except for Leinart and Rogers. Both guys have got to show me more against staunch pressure up the middle. We'll see, but thus far I have been very unimpressed with both and could see them going the way of the do-do w/n 2-3 seasons, and basically being useless beyond this season.
 
Great list, EBF :thumbdown:

I would find a way to get Campbell into the Top 15. He will be good this year and beyond.

 
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Good a list as any other, better than many.

:2cents: I'd personally place Henne above Flacco, but a lot depends on how well Jake Long and Ted Ginn develop. If Jake can protect Henne long enough for Ginn to get open and Ginn runs good routes, they have top flight potential. Probably not a QB1 any time soon, but the potential is there, and he's done fairly well in camp. They just didn't want to start the rookie QB.

 
Nice list, and I agree about Trent Edwards being a good value at the moment.

He looked great yesterday in the Bills' new offense.

I know, I know, its just the pre-season and the Steelers have question marks on defense, but getting the ball out quickly, solid decision making, great accuracy, and even a 22-yard scramble.

See the highlights here: http://www.nfl.com/videos?videoId=09000d5d80a02cec

 
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Good a list as any other, better than many. :excited: I'd personally place Henne above Flacco, but a lot depends on how well Jake Long and Ted Ginn develop. If Jake can protect Henne long enough for Ginn to get open and Ginn runs good routes, they have top flight potential. Probably not a QB1 any time soon, but the potential is there, and he's done fairly well in camp. They just didn't want to start the rookie QB.
I don't claim to have any kind of a crystal ball when it comes to rookie QBs. They're notoriously hard to figure out. I ranked the two first rounders over Henne since first rounders historically have a better chance of panning out.
 
Good a list as any other, better than many. :lmao: I'd personally place Henne above Flacco, but a lot depends on how well Jake Long and Ted Ginn develop. If Jake can protect Henne long enough for Ginn to get open and Ginn runs good routes, they have top flight potential. Probably not a QB1 any time soon, but the potential is there, and he's done fairly well in camp. They just didn't want to start the rookie QB.
I don't claim to have any kind of a crystal ball when it comes to rookie QBs. They're notoriously hard to figure out. I ranked the two first rounders over Henne since first rounders historically have a better chance of panning out.
Ok, at least you have a reason. I'm looking more at their situation and my opinion on their ability, but Baltimore has done ok with their picks lately, just not at QB.
 
Nice list, and I agree about Trent Edwards being a good value at the moment.

He looked great yesterday in the Bills' new offense.

I know, I know, its just the pre-season and the Steelers have question marks on defense, but getting the ball out quickly, solid decision making, great accuracy, and even a 22-yard scramble.

See the highlights here: http://www.nfl.com/videos?videoId=09000d5d80a02cec
What I like most about him is his intangibles. You watch an interview with the guy and it becomes very clear that he approaches things with a professional attitude. A lot of guys get to the league and coast on the big paycheck, but this guy is smart and mature. He'll do what it takes to maximize his ability. On the field he's always been a gutty leader who flashed great accuracy, confidence, and poise. I said a while back that if he played at Notre Dame, he would've had Brady Quinn's college career. He simply didn't have a chance to flourish with the supporting cast and coaching staffs at Stanford. Now that he's on a more level playing field, people are starting to see what he can do. I think he has a pretty good chance to be successful. There are legitimate reasons to be wary of him, but I wouldn't put too much emphasis on the system. Good teams build their system around their talent. Once upon a time Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger weren't considered good FF QBs. That's not to say Edwards is as good as either of those guys, but rather that you shouldn't discount him on the basis of the conservative Buffalo system.

 
great thought provoking stuff as always EBF...

14. Derek Anderson - Showed a lot of promise, but tailed off in the second half. Has always been a poor decision maker with high INT numbers. Accuracy is suspect.
I can agree that he's no sharpshooter, and he does play on the razor's edge decision-wise, but where's this tail off you speak of?I see one nothing game against Buffalo in some of the worst conditions any football game was played in last year.I see one four INT game vs Cincy where even Anderson's coach said he learned something about what you can and can't do in high winds that day.I see a week 17 quasi-exhibition game that Cleveland controlled and Anderson threw only 20 passes in.Otherwise, Anderson was a solid 20 points per week play in the 2nd half of the season.If that's the tail off, then that's not a strong argument against his long term outlook unless you expect most of his games to be meaningless or played in bad weather.
 
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I think Travaris Jackson may be on the verge of a breakout season. I always liked his athleticism, now he seems to be getting "it" regarding reading NFL defenses.

Caveat: I am a AD owner and this would be fantastic for me :rant:

 
great thought provoking stuff as always EBF...

14. Derek Anderson - Showed a lot of promise, but tailed off in the second half. Has always been a poor decision maker with high INT numbers. Accuracy is suspect.
I can agree that he's no sharpshooter, and he does play on the razor's edge decision-wise, but where's this tail off you speak of?I see one nothing game against Buffalo in some of the worst conditions any football game was played in last year.I see one four INT game vs Cincy where even Anderson's coach said he learned something about what you can and can't do in high winds that day.I see a week 17 quasi-exhibition game that Cleveland controlled and Anderson threw only 20 passes in.Otherwise, Anderson was a solid 20 points per week play in the 2nd half of the season.If that's the tail off, then that's not a strong argument against his long term outlook unless you expect most of his games to be meaningless or played in bad weather.
Well he plays 11 games in Cleveland, Pittsburg, Baltimore, Cincinnati. Last I check they were all outdoors, normally bad weather, and also looks like that's the majority of his games. So everytime it gets cold/wet/nasty in Nov/Dec he's going to tank? That's not exactly great news for where he plays.
 
great thought provoking stuff as always EBF...

14. Derek Anderson - Showed a lot of promise, but tailed off in the second half. Has always been a poor decision maker with high INT numbers. Accuracy is suspect.
I can agree that he's no sharpshooter, and he does play on the razor's edge decision-wise, but where's this tail off you speak of?I see one nothing game against Buffalo in some of the worst conditions any football game was played in last year.I see one four INT game vs Cincy where even Anderson's coach said he learned something about what you can and can't do in high winds that day.I see a week 17 quasi-exhibition game that Cleveland controlled and Anderson threw only 20 passes in.Otherwise, Anderson was a solid 20 points per week play in the 2nd half of the season.If that's the tail off, then that's not a strong argument against his long term outlook unless you expect most of his games to be meaningless or played in bad weather.
These numbers aren't perfect because I just added up the number for each game and divided by eight, but they represent a rough approximation of his second half:QB Rating - 74.3Yards/Attempt - 6.3 TD:INT - 1.2:1These marks are all quite a bit worse than his first half marks. My personal opinion is that they're a more accurate reflection of who he is. I'm being pretty hard on him for a first year starter though. A lot of QBs show marked improvement in their second year as a starter.
 
great thought provoking stuff as always EBF...

14. Derek Anderson - Showed a lot of promise, but tailed off in the second half. Has always been a poor decision maker with high INT numbers. Accuracy is suspect.
I can agree that he's no sharpshooter, and he does play on the razor's edge decision-wise, but where's this tail off you speak of?I see one nothing game against Buffalo in some of the worst conditions any football game was played in last year.I see one four INT game vs Cincy where even Anderson's coach said he learned something about what you can and can't do in high winds that day.I see a week 17 quasi-exhibition game that Cleveland controlled and Anderson threw only 20 passes in.Otherwise, Anderson was a solid 20 points per week play in the 2nd half of the season.If that's the tail off, then that's not a strong argument against his long term outlook unless you expect most of his games to be meaningless or played in bad weather.
Well he plays 11 games in Cleveland, Pittsburg, Baltimore, Cincinnati. Last I check they were all outdoors, normally bad weather, and also looks like that's the majority of his games. So everytime it gets cold/wet/nasty in Nov/Dec he's going to tank? That's not exactly great news for where he plays.
The Cle/Buf game was ridiculous. Brady had to play in similar terrible conditions vs the Jets, and he didnt fare any better. Roethlisberger played in a morass vs. Miami and did even less. I dont think its a compelling argument to bump Brady or Roethlisberger down because of the possibility of bad weather late in the season, and I dont think it's any more compelling for Anderson.
 
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great thought provoking stuff as always EBF...

14. Derek Anderson - Showed a lot of promise, but tailed off in the second half. Has always been a poor decision maker with high INT numbers. Accuracy is suspect.
I can agree that he's no sharpshooter, and he does play on the razor's edge decision-wise, but where's this tail off you speak of?I see one nothing game against Buffalo in some of the worst conditions any football game was played in last year.I see one four INT game vs Cincy where even Anderson's coach said he learned something about what you can and can't do in high winds that day.I see a week 17 quasi-exhibition game that Cleveland controlled and Anderson threw only 20 passes in.Otherwise, Anderson was a solid 20 points per week play in the 2nd half of the season.If that's the tail off, then that's not a strong argument against his long term outlook unless you expect most of his games to be meaningless or played in bad weather.
These numbers aren't perfect because I just added up the number for each game and divided by eight, but they represent a rough approximation of his second half:QB Rating - 74.3Yards/Attempt - 6.3 TD:INT - 1.2:1These marks are all quite a bit worse than his first half marks. My personal opinion is that they're a more accurate reflection of who he is. I'm being pretty hard on him for a first year starter though. A lot of QBs show marked improvement in their second year as a starter.
I think that data is greatly skewed by the addition of the two terrible weather games and the week 17 practice game. if you run the same average for week 10-14, you'll get a VERY different result.
 
The Cle/Buf game was ridiculous. Brady had to play in similar terrible conditions vs the Jets, and he didnt fare any better. Roethlisberger played in a morass vs. Miami and did even less. I dont think its a compelling argument to bump Brady or Roethlisberger down, and I dont think it's any more compelling for Anderson.
But Brady/Ben have a track record of success in cold weather, later in the year. While I don't think anyone should drop DA way down because of the 2nd half, I also don't think you can ignore it. In those 4 places, in Nov/Dec, the weather is crappy. A lot. There are QBs who have horrible dome/outdoor splits. Warm/cold. It's not that crazy to think DA drops off when the weather gets nasty. And if that is the case, he plays in the worst division in football in terms of weather. Maybe defenses got tape on him. Maybe he hit the wall a little. Maybe it was just dumb luck. Either way, I don't think you can totally excuse it.
 
great thought provoking stuff as always EBF...

14. Derek Anderson - Showed a lot of promise, but tailed off in the second half. Has always been a poor decision maker with high INT numbers. Accuracy is suspect.
I can agree that he's no sharpshooter, and he does play on the razor's edge decision-wise, but where's this tail off you speak of?I see one nothing game against Buffalo in some of the worst conditions any football game was played in last year.

I see one four INT game vs Cincy where even Anderson's coach said he learned something about what you can and can't do in high winds that day.

I see a week 17 quasi-exhibition game that Cleveland controlled and Anderson threw only 20 passes in.

Otherwise, Anderson was a solid 20 points per week play in the 2nd half of the season.

If that's the tail off, then that's not a strong argument against his long term outlook unless you expect most of his games to be meaningless or played in bad weather.
These numbers aren't perfect because I just added up the number for each game and divided by eight, but they represent a rough approximation of his second half:QB Rating - 74.3

Yards/Attempt - 6.3

TD:INT - 1.2:1

These marks are all quite a bit worse than his first half marks. My personal opinion is that they're a more accurate reflection of who he is. I'm being pretty hard on him for a first year starter though. A lot of QBs show marked improvement in their second year as a starter.
I think that data is greatly skewed by the addition of the two terrible weather games and the week 17 practice game. if you run the same average for week 10-14, you'll get a VERY different result.
Looking at only those 5 games you get:QB Rating - 81.7

Yards/Attempt - 6.34

TD:INT Ratio - 1.8:1

Better numbers, but not spectacular other than the nice TD:INT ratio.

The thing about Anderson is that his high number of passing attempts and TD passes masked an otherwise uspectacular year. When I evaluate a QB's performance, I don't focus too much on fantasy points. I look at the more objective assessments like QB rating and yards/attempt. Someone like Matt Schaub played just as well as Anderson despite not receiving the same fanfare in FF circles.

Matt Schaub

QB Rating - 87.2

Yards/Attempt - 7.8

TD:INT Ratio - 1:1

Derek Anderson

QB Rating - 82.5

Yards/Attempt - 7.2

TD:INT Ratio - 1.5:1

IMO the only difference between Anderson and Schaub is that Schaub threw less passes. I just don't see anything to distinguish Anderson from the guys I have ranked ahead of him. I also have my doubts about his ability to sustain his 2007 performance over another season, whereas I think guys like Schaub and Cutler are more likely to hold steady or even improve. Add in the Quinn factor and DA becomes a very risky prospect. He's ranked by many among the game's elite QBs. I don't think he belongs there at this point in time.

 
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My only quibbles would be that I'd group Palmer with the third tier (Cutler/McNabb/Hasselbeck), and that I'd move Campbell up to the top of his tier above Flacco/Ryan/Russell (more experience, and I like his situation for a QB far more than the other three). Otherwise, fantastic list that I completely agree with. :goodposting:

(Of course, this might be entirely based on your rankings of Garrard, Rodgers, and Edwards :P )

 
I am not buying E. Manning at 16.

How can you justify ranking someone at the 16th spot who has never finished outside of the 14th spot in his first three years as a starter. Eli has not missed a game in his career (very durable as shown last season playing with a partially torn shoulder ligament one week after hurting it). He has always managed to throw at least 23 plus td's in each of his first 3 full seasons starting. He is still young in QB at age 27 and has a very legit WRing core to work with.

Sure he has had some trouble with int's and his completion percentage has been sub par, but I don't think you are giving him enough credit.

Manning is now a 4th year starter in an offense he is extremely comfortable running and is coming off of a great playoff run where he showed that he can play at an elite level in the toughest conditions of all. I don't see how anyone can turn his playoff run into a negative thing.

 
I am not buying E. Manning at 16. How can you justify ranking someone at the 16th spot who has never finished outside of the 14th spot in his first three years as a starter. Eli has not missed a game in his career (very durable as shown last season playing with a partially torn shoulder ligament one week after hurting it). He has always managed to throw at least 23 plus td's in each of his first 3 full seasons starting. He is still young in QB at age 27 and has a very legit WRing core to work with.Sure he has had some trouble with int's and his completion percentage has been sub par, but I don't think you are giving him enough credit. Manning is now a 4th year starter in an offense he is extremely comfortable running and is coming off of a great playoff run where he showed that he can play at an elite level in the toughest conditions of all. I don't see how anyone can turn his playoff run into a negative thing.
Eli has the same problem Rivers has. He's a serviceable NFL QB, but there's very little indication that he'll ever be more than that. What value does a guy really have if he finishes QB10-15 every year? He's not going to put your team over the top with an elite season. Yes, he can start in a pinch and remain competitive, but I think you're better off taking the high upside gamble on a guy like Rodgers, who could conceivably become a top 5-6 type. If all you're looking for is a backup then Eli is a fine option. But he's really not an ideal starter and I don't see much to suggest that he ever will be.
 
I am not buying E. Manning at 16.

How can you justify ranking someone at the 16th spot who has never finished outside of the 14th spot in his first three years as a starter. Eli has not missed a game in his career (very durable as shown last season playing with a partially torn shoulder ligament one week after hurting it). He has always managed to throw at least 23 plus td's in each of his first 3 full seasons starting. He is still young in QB at age 27 and has a very legit WRing core to work with.

Sure he has had some trouble with int's and his completion percentage has been sub par, but I don't think you are giving him enough credit.

Manning is now a 4th year starter in an offense he is extremely comfortable running and is coming off of a great playoff run where he showed that he can play at an elite level in the toughest conditions of all. I don't see how anyone can turn his playoff run into a negative thing.
Eli has the same problem Rivers has. He's a serviceable NFL QB, but there's very little indication that he'll ever be more than that. What value does a guy really have if he finishes QB10-15 every year? He's not going to put your team over the top with an elite season. Yes, he can start in a pinch and remain competitive, but I think you're better off taking the high upside gamble on a guy like Rodgers, who could conceivably become a top 5-6 type. If all you're looking for is a backup then Eli is a fine option. But he's really not an ideal starter and I don't see much to suggest that he ever will be.
In 2005 he finished as QB 4 or 5 to my recollection. Also, Eli is still only 27 which is not old by QB standards. Servicable QB's don't throw for 23 plus TD's in 3 consecutive years. Like I said his int's and completion percentage have hurt his numbers, but by no means is he only a servicable fantasy QB going forward.

 
Servicable QB's don't throw for 23 plus TD's in 3 consecutive years. Like I said his int's and completion percentage have hurt his numbers, but by no means is he only a servicable fantasy QB going forward.
He did have a good FF season in 2005, but that was as much the result of a high number attempts and a lack of competition from other QBs as it was his excellence. His QB rating and yards per attempt have held pretty steady in the 74-77 and 6.3-6.8 ranges. His INT totals have increased each of the past two years. He just isn't that good of an NFL QB. I have an offer right now of Manning for Quinn in my inbox and I can't convince myself to accept it because I'm so underwhelmed by Eli's stats.
 

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