Dynasty Value Check - QB (1 Viewer)

[Atomic Punk]

Ryan has the potential for sustained greatness but it has to be considered potential still given the lack of historical numbers. Brady, Brees and Rodgers have all sustained elite fantasy numbers over multiple seasons. Once Ryan has another season or two under his belt, only then will I consider him in that tier. Maybe that is being risk averse but I've been burned too many times with guys having career seasons to lay too much on Ryan at this point.

 

[jeaton6]

Says the guy who also said don't trust Ryan plenty of times in the past. Gabriel runs a 4.28 40 and is dangerous. Freeman will be resigned, Coleman is going to be giving defenses fits. Hooper is only going to get better.

Things click for people. Drew Brees went for 7-8 seasons throwing 3500 yards and 25 TD/15 INT's and then all of a sudden he's consistently putting up 5000+ yard seasons. He will be more 4700/35/9 over the next few seasons (especially if he's still with Kyle Shanahan). The Ryan of old would've folded against Seattle and Denver, but he still put up respectable #'s (100 QB rating) against both top ranked defenses.

Drew Brees averaged 30 pass attempts per game in San Diego and in NO he's averaging 40+ per game. His rise clearly happened once he went to NO at the start of his 5th full season as starter in NFL. TD rate, Y/A are higher since being in NO as well but there is a component of volume here as well (due to trust NO has in him as a passer amongst other things). Y/A  around 7.8-8.0 over that time.

Ryan is at 9.5 Y/A right now. Tom Brady's best season was 8.6. Drew Brees 8.5, Ryan before this year 7.9 (his rookie year with only 434 attempts). His average over the past 5 years (when he started throwing for >4,000 yards) is around 7.4. He's only on pace for 560 attempts.  I definitely see more volume in the future but the Y/A is not sustainable, the YPG isn't either, neither is the 1.3% INT/A rate or the 2.5 TDs per game. 

We have seen examples of QBs who throw for 5,000 and/or 40 TDs who get huge value bumps and then regress  the following year (Stafford (his value tanked for several years and he had the best receiver in the game)/Bortles). Heck look at Newton and people were touting all the reasons in the offseason why he could do the same thing again this year especially with KB back, how has that turned out? I'm sure there are counter examples.

Ryan appears to have taken a leap but I'd need to see more than 9 games to say he's approaching Brady/Brees type value in their heyday (suggested I believe in another  post by someone else). 

4700/35 sounds reasonable (9 sounds too low) going forward. Though admittedly I still think the 35 is a bit high. If he puts up these types of numbers next year I could get on board with the Brady/Brees type value talk.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

There is definitely risk with Ryan.  He has had elite skill position players his whole career and this will be his first year finishing better than QB7.

There is hope that this is a new Ryan as QBs do sometimes just "get it" and jump up a couple of tiers later in their careers.  Brees, Brady, and Roethlisberger all were considered mediocre fantasy players well into their careers.  However Ryan's 9 years exceeds all of them as they all seemed to "get it" (from a fantasy/stats standpoint, Brady and Big Ben were good NFL QBs already obviously) around year 6 and they all had multiple top 5 fantasy finishes by their 9th year.

It will be interesting to see how it plays out.  Being surrounded by good players who will be around for a while would be more enticing to me if it were something new and could explain his jump in stats.  However it means a little less in that it merely is maintaining the status quo for a guy that is about to have his first top 5 fantasy finish in his 9 year career.