Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
In last year’s draft that’s crazy. How doesn’t anyone see the advantage of going against the grain and scoring a Wilson or London?
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (11 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
eighsse2
Footballguy
Here's the kicker. The one WR that did go in the first 11 picks? Pickens, at #8. Then 8 more WR in the next 9 picks following the first 11.
Eta: It is QRRWWFKD. I know a lot of leagues do 3WR and/or 2 or 3 FX, and/or 1RB. So ours is kind of maximized for RB value. But still it's a bit crazy.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Where did Olave go?
eighsse2
Footballguy
candian fantasy guy
Footballguy
How about the 1.02 in a 12 team FFPC SF league.
I was offered the 1.04 and a 2024 2nd for my 1.02. Insta reject for my QB needy team. But it got me thinking, what would it take?
Also is it Richardson or Young at 1.02?
I was offered the 1.04 and a 2024 2nd for my 1.02. Insta reject for my QB needy team. But it got me thinking, what would it take?
Also is it Richardson or Young at 1.02?
efactor
Footballguy
Richardson IMO
The rushing upside is just too high. If he hits, the upside is off the charts.
candian fantasy guy
Footballguy
I think that’s where I am at as well.
titusbramble
Footballguy
If you don't have a great take on who the QB1 is (which I guess you don't), and are working on the assumption that Bijan is the 1.01, why wouldn't you trade down to the bottom of the Young/Stroud/Rich tier and get a free pick?
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Because he doesn't want Stroud if it only gains a 2nd rounder.
Pick 4 isn't pick 3
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
It’s a fair offer but I’m keeping 2
ARich is the smash pick, IMO. His coach developed Hurts. That’s all I need to know.
High weekly floor due to rushing, some decent weapons, and Matt Waldman RSG identified all of his weaknesses and deemed them all fixable with good coaching.
I can’t take the 5’10 190 lb Panther.
candian fantasy guy
Footballguy
Exactly. A 2nd rounder might be adequate compensation, but I want more than adequate for the downgrade in the QB position.
My assumption is that Bijan will go first, if not he will become part of my team, real fast!
candian fantasy guy
Footballguy
I am leaning Richardson for sure. Good line, great RB and some decent WR and young TE. It’s a great landing spot for him.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I really honestly hope that Young is the Steph Curry of the NFL. I’m excited to see it.
He would be a 1 in a million.
ARich’s rushing will give him a FF floor that might resemble Young’s passing ceiling.
I love Stroud, and legitimately believe he’s the most win-now NFL ready prospect. I also believe he has much better rushing upside than people realize, and his ceiling is better than given credit for. But I don’t want a Texan, and again, I can’t take him over the dude whose upside is Allen/Hurts/LJax for a dude who’s upside is Goff, with an outside long-shot chance at Burrow.
Love Stroud for an NFL team. But ARich is the pick for FF. He has to be. Trade for Minshew & draft ARich. That’s what I did/will do.
titusbramble
Footballguy
If you think Stroud is considerably worse than Young/Richardson, this is fair. I don't, I'm indifferent to all three QB's, and currently have my 1.04 pick on autodraft
candian fantasy guy
Footballguy
It’s not that I don’t like Stroud, I did like him much more before his landing.
I also have the luxury of having the 1.02 in one league, 1.03 in another and the 1.04 in a final one. All orphans I purchased this off season. So I will likely get a piece of each of these guys across those 3 SF leagues.
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
Oh wise shark pool I want to revisit our talks about kyler Murray and other QB1s.
Are we still saying you wouldn’t pay a late first for Murray or other back end QB1s in this draft?
ETA:
Pretty cool thought experiment. Keep/trade consensus has Young (7th rookie) a couple spots ahead of Murray. Would you want Young or Murray in 1QB moving forward?
Or
Richardson (9th rookie) Stroud (10th rookie)?
Are we still saying you wouldn’t pay a late first for Murray or other back end QB1s in this draft?
ETA:
Pretty cool thought experiment. Keep/trade consensus has Young (7th rookie) a couple spots ahead of Murray. Would you want Young or Murray in 1QB moving forward?
Or
Richardson (9th rookie) Stroud (10th rookie)?
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roar_lions
Footballguy
Looking for opinions on the value in terms of 2023 draft picks for McLaurin and Antonio Gibson in a 12 team start 1 QB league?
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
Late 23 first for Scary Terry and late 23 second for AG is where I'd place them. IF McLaurin is your guy, maybe giving up a middle first is worth it? I don't see more than RB3/RB4 value in GIbson, though.
Birdie048
Footballguy
So Kyler Murray’s status for 2023 is still undetermined. His contract ties the teams hands in moving on but the HC/Staff has changed so I don’t know what to project for his 2024 season.
In 1 QB league, I would not pay a 1st until I know his health, and only if I was rebuilding.
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
For the second part of the question. Would you prefer Young/Stroud/Richardson (all going mid or end of round 1 this year on KTC) over Murray?
When I put the players against Murray I choose Murray all day. Anything past 1.06 really doesn't have me excited.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I have Richardson significantly ahead of Stroud for FF, and I love Stroud way more than most.
Stroud has a 1 QB floor that’s seemingly much higher due to the landing spot / coach.
He has the upside to become a 244 lb Hurts. I don’t see that ceiling for Stroud, even though I believe he’ll run more than people think.
I could be way off. I’m picking ARich 1.02 in SF though without hesitation. If I played 1 QB, I’d value ARich over quite a few incumbent QBs for the rushing stats.
I’m assuming your league awards more points for RuYd than PaYd though.
Birdie048
Footballguy
I have TLaw & JLove in my 1 QB 12 Team and I am considering ARich 1.08 due to poor options.
Right now NOS RB Kendre Miller or DKincaid Buf TE are in the mix
I have ARich > KMurray and Bryce & CJ well after him.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’d probably just take a flier on QJ or Addison mid 1st and get the extra years and likely better QB situation than pay for Scary Terry.
Late 1st I’m in on TMC
Those two are my WR2 and WR3 in this class, so you're agreeing with me.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Glad to see you come around to my side of things.Those two are my WR2 and WR3 in this class, so you're agreeing with me.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Etienne vs. Gibbs. Who do you take, and by how much?
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
I have their values as roughly equivalent. If I'm a contender, I want the '23 production (and shorter lifespan) of Etienne. If I'm not, then Gibbs all the way knowing that his '23 production will probably be a good bit less.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Same. ETN coming into his 2nd year in the system, 2nd year removed from the Lisfranc, still just 24 with a rookie behind him on the depth chart. Seems poised for a larger workload.
Gibbs is younger, but has Montgomery to split touches with, and we don’t really know how the Lions will use him. Some folks think they know, but no one knows. I’ve seen folks point to draft capital saying “they wouldn’t have spent that pick on him unless they were going to feature him” - as though NFL teams are always logical & never make questionable picks for questionable reasons.
If someone offered me Gibbs for ETN I’m not sure what I’d do - probably hold ETN. But then, I’m optimistic for ETN.
massraider
Footballguy
I need to know what the problem is with ETN getting 45 targets.
Because unless there is a change in that offense, he has a low ceiling
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
My feeling is we don’t know what ETN’s targets will look like this year.
Last year was essentially his rookie season and he was worked in gradually, and was on a pitch count of sorts.
This year I expect a full workload out of the gate, and I’m hopeful that means more receiving.
But like I said, we don’t really know.
At the same time, we know even less about Gibbs.
massraider
Footballguy
Travis Etienne Jr. 2025 Stats per Game - NFL - ESPN
The 2025 NFL season stats per game for Travis Etienne Jr. of the Jacksonville Jaguars on ESPN. Includes full stats, per opponent, for regular and postseason.
I was looking at his game logs. He got 220 carries, but he can't get 60 targets? His receiving numbers didn't ramp up at all late in the season. They were bad , all year long.
I am not saying you are wrong, i am asking, IS that the issue? Coming off injury? Or is that nature of the Jags offense? Or Lawrence feels more comfortable dumping off somewhere else?
Gibbs we do know some stuff. We know the QB prefers to dink/dunk, and we know the team was danged excited to draft him. On the one hand, I feel like there are a lot of guys to take targets away from Gibbs, but on the other hand, it might just be that Gibbs gets his, and everyone else falls in behind him. He could hurt Amon-Ra a lot.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
All things are possible at this point.Travis Etienne Jr. 2025 Stats per Game - NFL - ESPN
The 2025 NFL season stats per game for Travis Etienne Jr. of the Jacksonville Jaguars on ESPN. Includes full stats, per opponent, for regular and postseason.www.espn.com
I was looking at his game logs. He got 220 carries, but he can't get 60 targets? His receiving numbers didn't ramp up at all late in the season. They were bad , all year long.
I am not saying you are wrong, i am asking, IS that the issue? Coming off injury? Or is that nature of the Jags offense? Or Lawrence feels more comfortable dumping off somewhere else?
Gibbs we do know some stuff. We know the QB prefers to dink/dunk, and we know the team was danged excited to draft him. On the one hand, I feel like there are a lot of guys to take targets away from Gibbs, but on the other hand, it might just be that Gibbs gets his, and everyone else falls in behind him. He could hurt Amon-Ra a lot.
Nothing is known.
I doubt Gibbs hurts ARSB. Especially without Jameson for 6 weeks.
And speaking of QB, what happens in 2 years when they shift to hooker? That has me worried about ARSB more.
I’d say it’s a coin flip between ETN & Gibbs, which is a compliment to Gibbs as I’m quite high on ETN.
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massraider
Footballguy
I own him in one league, and I want to sell.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Who, Gibbs? Or ARSB?
Lions have Hooker, not Levis.
A WR like ASRB is always a little dicey because he needs so much volume but I don't Gibbs will be a deterrent. Not worried about the QB either. My concern level would ratchet up if/when Ben Johnson leaves but even then as long as Cambell is around he'll be fairly heavily involved, he loves him-ASB the embodiment of the culture he's been trying to build.
I will soon have a Gibbs/ASRB team and I'm jacked up about it.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I really need to stop multitasking. Was texting a friend about Levi’s, while typing about this here.
The brain is a wondrous thing - especially when not using it properly.
dipandglide
Footballguy
Who are the best values thus far in your rookie drafts?
Mine....
1) Spears
2) Mims
3) Laporta
4) Reed
Mine....
1) Spears
2) Mims
3) Laporta
4) Reed
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
ARich 1.03 after Young
dipandglide
Footballguy
Seeing Young go ahead of Arich in my Superflex drafts has been wild
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Why? There's a pretty realistic chance he's a bust. Higher upside I guess but obvious his downside is zero
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
There’s also a pretty realistic chance Young is a bust, so the player with the highest FF ceiling seems to be a much better pick.
Or are we pretending that just because Young went 1.01, his 5’10” 190 lb stature doesn’t make him every bit as risky as ARich?
Not to mention Richardson has arguably better weapons, an easier path to playing time, and a HC who helped develop Hurts & Herbert.
I think it’s an easier argument for Stroud over either if one is drafting for “safety”.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
It can go many different ways. I'll generally go with a guy who's knock isn't football skill if it's a guy I am drafting super high and relying on him being a starter for me for a long time.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Not saying ARich isn't risky, and if Young were 20 lbs heavier & 3" taller I'd have him miles above ARich.
But he's not. All the acumen in the world won't help him if he gets crushed by either of the Bosas or Aaron Donald. The NFL is bigger/stronger/faster. Like I said, if you're drafting for the safe pick, Stroud is the safest QB in the draft.
And reportedly ARich's football IQ is a lot higher than many here (including myself) have given him credit for. Shane Steichen apparently thinks so, and so does Matt Waldman. I really changed my tune about him after seeing Waldman's videos and reading his RSP of the dude. He has him as the QB1 of this class, and believes his short yard accuracy issues & footwork are related & pretty easily fixable. And for FF specifically, his rushing is going to be just so valuable.
dipandglide
Footballguy
All rookie QB's have bust potential, no? Who's to say Young won't bust?
This might be a different conversation if Arich was drafted In the 20's. Top 5 draft capital is enough for me to swing for the fences with AR.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
By "realistic" I guess I mean he has a light higher bust potential IMO
I just drafted Bijan at 1.03. Caveat: 16 team SF
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That's just a score right there. Congrats. Latest I've seen Bijan drafted so far.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I can definitely see that in 16 team SF. I imagine it's rather hard to get a decent QB from someone else in that league
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I'd rather shoot for the moon. I see them as relatively equal bust potential. In fact, I'd give the 5'10" 190 lb Young a higher chance of bring a bust. To be successful he basically has to be the outlier of outliers; the Stephan Curry of the NFL. Especially on a team with lesser weapons, albeit seemingly a year to sit and watch. Which, for FF purposes, means losing a year of production.
It's pretty unlikely that Young is successful, much less long-term given his slight of frame build.
