InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
pinkstapler
Footballguy
He's semi-desperate I'd say. He did win the bid for Kyren last week, but otherwise has an injured Aaron Jones, an injured Jamal Williams, and some backups.
I also liked the Nacua side better, but at the same time felt odd liking it better lol. With how Watson has been playing, it's hard to imagine much of an upside for Elijah Moore right now unless he really turns it around.
JamboTaylor
Footballguy
Kendre Miller price check
dschuler
Footballguy
His price is going to fluctuate one way or the other after this week. Good chance it goes up. IDK his price, he was already a late first and now the situation just became even better with Williams being sidelined. I think a late first is worth trading away to grab him if you need a RB.
irish eyes
Footballguy
I avoid anyone softer than Charmin toilet paper.
dipandglide
Footballguy
Early 2nd in Superflex. Mid-late 1st in start one leagues.
dipandglide
Footballguy
Superflex mid-1st (Addison/Flowers range)
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
I wouldn't sell him for what anyone would be prepared to pay right now.
And I wouldn't pay enough for anyone who drafted him to sell.
One of those wait and see players I think.
candian fantasy guy
Footballguy
I was offered Mixon and Toney for CW, to which I countered for his mid to early 1st. Declined.
The amount of horrible trade offers I get for in dynasty is rarely outstanding. Very few want to pay anywhere near value of a player.
1QB - early 1st.
Birdie048
Footballguy
I am a big fan of Kendre Miller. Took him 2.01 and declined a few offers (1 package included JT but it was big overpay).
In terms of NOS offense, they are still not firing on all cylinders .. Carr is still getting used to them and when Kamara gets back on the field, I project more RBBC
Value wise ... I would not sell for less than a mid 1st but I don't think anybody would pay this.
dschuler
Footballguy
I agree and love Kendre. He has a great RB build to be a workhorse. He also ran a 4.4x at the combine, which is ideal in my opinion for his size. And best of all, he just turned 21 and is a good year and a half younger than a lot of other rookie RBs.
rockaction
Footballguy
No, he didn't. He didn't run at the combine, nor did he have a pro day time.
This information is way off.
eta* Sorry for sounding harsh. I'm a Kendre honk but that just wasn't accurate and was actually pretty far off, considering his big questions were how healthy was his knee and what was his athleticism after not testing with said knee. Saying he had great testing times sort of misses the essence of him as a prospect.
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rockaction
Footballguy
And I really like Kendre and think when he's healthy that he'll be a very good back. That time is not now.
dschuler
Footballguy
Yes it is. No idea where I got that from
dschuler
Footballguy
The value of Nico , Puka , and Kyren have skyrocketed so much it’s tough to really put a price on them. I think Nico and Javonte have very similar values going into this week.
Da Franchise
Footballguy
Probably the same place you’re getting college QB prospect grades
(Just sorta joking, no venom)
BubbaFridge
Footballguy
Should I trade Geno or D Watson in Dunasty?
D Watson is the better player but I feel like Stafanski’ is QB poison. Not sure how much career rope the NFL is going to give to a serial sex offender either. Still, Watson was so good in Texas.
D Watson is the better player but I feel like Stafanski’ is QB poison. Not sure how much career rope the NFL is going to give to a serial sex offender either. Still, Watson was so good in Texas.
dschuler
Footballguy
Watson is significantly more valuable in my opinion both short and long term.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I’m not so sure. He had his year to knock the rust off, yet I still see it on him.
Birdie048
Footballguy
If rebuilding D Watson will return more trade value than Geno by far.
If you are competitive and fearful of Watson’s potential longevity issues all the more reason to move him
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Just saw he only tore his MCL…not sure how that is possible.
Why would anyone pay for him?
titusbramble
Footballguy
You are either undervaluing Addison/Flowers, or overvaluing Watson. Given Addison was pick 8 and Flowers pick 11 in my draft, and both have increased in value since then (Flowers more so), I'd lean towards the latter. There's no way I'd deal either of those players for Watson (own Flowers myself) and there's no way I'd deal a first for Watson either.
rockaction
Footballguy
That's interesting because I wouldn't deal Watson for either of those guys. I think Watson's hamstring and injury history are the only thing holding him back from easily pacing those guys in terms of physicality and production.
Addison is WR2 on his own team. Flowers is still really small. Watson is neither of those things, and he blew up already last year.
eta* KTC has it pretty decisively for both guys (Flowers over Watson and Addison well over Watson), but I think that shows the public's recency bias rather than determining who the better receiver is. I'll bet against the market on this one, provided Watson is healthy, which seems to be the $25,000 question.
KTC has it Addison WR13, Flowers WR18 or WR19, and Watson WR21. I personally don't see the gap as big as KTC sees it.
eta2* KTC has Watson as a early-to-mid first in 1QB and a better than a later first in Superflex, so I think you're undervaluing Watson, really.
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dschuler
Footballguy
I am torn between Addison or Watson. Would rather have Watson for the next couple of years for sure but probably Addison long term if I’m in a complete rebuild. Flowers is pretty firmly my third option between the three.
Flowers is very small and plays with a QB that has never thrown for 3200 yards in a season (200 yards?) Mark Andrews is back and is absolutely the #1 target. Flowers is so small he’s not a red zone threat. I would sell Flowers if someone is really buying the hype.
Addison is only 21 and plays with a QB who is probably going to hit 5000 yards. Even after Kirk leaves, I trust the offense more than Baltimore.
Watson has looked great when healthy, but he’s had some lingering issues for sure. He’s a lot bigger than both of them and should be a great red zone target. There is also a little concern about Jordan Loves play. But even so, I would rather have Love as my QB than Lamar Jackson when supporting a WR for fantasy.
titusbramble
Footballguy
I will say that I am a stickler for receivers who can get their production through good route running, separation and ability after the catch rather than those who are primarily reliant on size, speed or both. As I said on another forum when talking about how I was on Nacua early, I may never get a top 3 WR but I'll get players who I'm comfortable with plugging into my roster every week who'll have long careers at a high level. Admittedly my dislike for Watson is/was partially due to not knowing what we were going to get with Love, while we still don't know for sure it does look a lot better than it did a month ago
rockaction
Footballguy
Watson was 3rd among receivers in YAC/R (yards after catch/reception) last year. He also added two rushing touchdowns on jet sweeps, and his 11.4 yards per carry was second only to Treylon Burks's 11.9.
He had a passer rating when targeted of 121.5, which puts him in the top five.
Not sure what more we're looking for here.
His aDOT was nearly 14 and his YAC/R was 6.7, which is ridiculous for that aDOT. He also broke three tackles on the year, which is decent.
I'm not sure that "ability after the catch" is an issue with him.
I'm not going to argue against valuing Addison or Flowers higher then Watson. They both have more well rounded profiles then Christian Watson. Thus far I think Watson has been really good at winning deep but has struggled on short and intermediate routes from what I gather from Matt Harmon's podcasts.
I think there is some uncertainty whether Watson flames out and ends up being like Martavis Bryant or Marques Vales-Scantling type, a much bigger DeSean Jackson type for fantasy football purposes, or a Mike Evans type receiver.
If your league has existed for +5 years look back to see the kinds of players who have been going around the 1.09 to 2.02 range. Many of the guys ended up being disappointments.
SproutDaddy
Footballguy
What is Skyy Moore’s value? Have someone offering him for a coupon backup rbs. Not really moving the needle for me. Am I overthinking this?
foxco
Footballguy
Super tough to value this guy. Guessing he's more or less a hold till he's established as a starter or he's proven he's worthless and becomes a drop. I have him in 1 league and he's a wait and see for me as I don't see anyone ponying up anything of real worth. If he strings a couple of decent outings together I may throw a couple of offers out, but not now.
rockaction
Footballguy
It depends who the backup RBs are, really. Are they guys that have a chance at seeing a lot of time at the end of the year or next, or are they just roster fillers?
Like if it's Tyjae Spears and Kendre Miller, I'm not trading them for Skyy Moore.
rockaction
Footballguy
We used to give guys more time than this to really judge their route running prowess and all the nuances they needed to become professionals at a high level. I think we're seeing this explosion of wanting things just a little too quickly because we love when things hold value, and getting caught holding the bag on a Reagor or a N'Keal Harry feels much worse than selling for a valued player whilst one can. But it also doesn't give these guys time to develop.
Nobody is going to pump Harmon's tires more than I, but it's just a little too quick to judge Watson, unless Harmon has run regressions and finds out that there are cutoffs for improvement and the like -- thresholds that Watson isn't meeting. What he can do is compare him to other guys in that class and see how he relates accordingly.
I'd pump the brakes on Watson judgments because he came from a run-first FCS college and because he exploded so brilliantly last year that there seems to be something there. There's meat on that bone, it would seem.
SproutDaddy
Footballguy
No. They aren’t youngish guys. They are Gus Edwards and Zack Moss. I’m in a rebuild after the Chubb injury. My roster is kind of old outside of J Herbert, Kendre Miller and Waddle. I have a few young TEs as well. Moore just doesn’t excite me and I’m wondering if I’m not valuing him correctly.
rockaction
Footballguy
I think foxco said it best, but let me take a stab at it, too. You don't really know what you want to know about Moore until everyone knows and by then it's too late.
If you're rebuilding, you'd hope you could get more for Moss and Edwards on this season's prospects alone, I'd think.
KTC has it for Moss and Edwards, but only by an Albert Okweugbunam-type player.
I don't know what I would do if I were you.
titusbramble
Footballguy
He is still rostered in my league. Couldn't get him for Renfrow and a minimal late round pick swap in my favour so someone at least still values him
SproutDaddy
Footballguy
Your frame of thought is in line with mine. I know both of rbs don’t warrant a great deal, but I don’t feel like Moore is going to satisfy me.
dipandglide
Footballguy
Fair enough. I wouldn't add to any of my Watson shares for Addison or Flowers.
I heard recently that some are valuing Addison as a WR1 in dynasty. THAT IS CRAZY TALK. I don't blame you for not moving Addison 1-1 if that is the market. I'd be rushing to sell Addison shares if that's the case.
dschuler
Footballguy
I can see Addison but I would be selling Flowers right now. 5’9, already 23, no redzone threat and Lamar has never been able to support a WR1 or throw for over 200 yards per game averaged over a 16/17 game season. I don’t see the path for Flowers to be a WR1with Mark Andrews there so I don’t think Flowers is actually in the same tier as Addison or Watson and there are several rookie WRs I would rather have.
BearsFan4Life
Footballguy
Anyone trying to get Kupp before he comes off IR. I am assuming owners are sitting on him, but what is his value at this point?
dschuler
Footballguy
There are some fairly respectable medical people I follow on Twitter that are very skeptical about him coming back soon. McVay using words like “hope” aren’t ringing endorsements either. I think it’s owner dependent, but I would want to see him play a full game first.
wlwiles
Footballguy
Not to make this a "should I do this trade or not" question, but I'm curious about Kyler Murray's value in SF leagues. I'm being offered Kyler + 1st + 2nd (random) for my Burrow. I'm rebuilding so could really use more draft capital, and Burrow is my best asset to try and tier down to pick up some picks. Feels like there's a two tier difference between them to me though which makes me think I need to ask for more, but I'm fairly new to SF and I know the Burrows of the world are worth a ton...
I own Burrows in SF league, Not touching this. Who knows what Murrays future holds but I don’t see #1 QB. Burrow is top notch for years. While next years class is interesting, who knows in the end.
Mock for my 15 team SF/PPR/TE Premium.
1. Team A Marvin Harrison
2. Team B. Brock Bowers
3. Team A. Caleb Williams
4. Team C Drake Maybe
5. Team D. Shedaur Sanders
6. Team C. Malik Nabors
7. Team D. Quinn Ewers
8. Team B. Emeka Egbuka
9. Team D. Treyvon Henderson
10. Team A. Blake Corum
11. Team E. Michael Pennix
12. Team D. JJ McCarthy
13. Team F. Jatavion Sanders
14. Team G. Bo Nix
15. Team H. Keon Coleman
