Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (3 Viewers)

[Snorkelson]

Depends on need, but if I needed a WR this year and had a mid-2nd, I'd probably pull the trigger. All the WRs I like seem to be going in the first 15-16 picks... and they'll probably take a year to develop. Moncrief could net you some WR3* production immediately and he's only 24 (will be 25 when the season starts). He's a little over a year older than Ridley, he's younger than Doctson and Cole, and about the same age as Westbrook. So even if you don't like JAX as a landing spot, he's not a bad guy to buy low on if you're looking to get younger for 2019. Maybe eek another year out of Fitzgerald or DT and hope that Moncrief finds a better home next year.

*He's technically earning the most money this year out of all the JAX WRs, so if he's really the WR1 on that team and nets ~120 targets then he could creep into WR2 territory, but I wouldn't make that trade counting on such a thing happening.

I agree with most of this. I’m not sure I’d go after moncreif unless it’s real cheap. I’d rather pay a 2nd for Marvin Jones or a number of other WRs that have a clearer path to production. Moncreif could be wr 1 there or wr4, for that I’d rather just draft a guy that could be what we all hoped moncreif was.

 

[bostonfred]

What kind of rookie pick value would you put on Donte Moncrief?

Pros - 5th year receiver but only turns 25 this summer.  Has caught 18 touchdowns in 27 starts (53 games played). Career highs of 64 receptions, over 700 yards and 7 touchdowns aren't terrible. Played most of his time in Indy while luck was hurt. 

Cons - has started 27 games in 4 seasons but played in 53. Was highly regarded in fantasy because he had a chance to start for Andrew luck, wasn't very successful with him, but downgraded to bortles at qb. Might not start for his own NFL team. Played in 16 games last year but only started two.  Not much draft pedigree.  On a prove it deal where he might not get to prove it, and if he does he still plays with bortles. On a run based team with a stellar defense, he will be sharing the targets from a bad qb with 3 other decent options who all have experience in the system.  

I'll pass on spending a roster spot on him personally, but I have enough dart throws already.  I'm surprised to see other people still like him enough to consider any kind of second. 

 

[FF Ninja]

I agree with most of this. I’m not sure I’d go after moncreif unless it’s real cheap. I’d rather pay a 2nd for Marvin Jones or a number of other WRs that have a clearer path to production. Moncreif could be wr 1 there or wr4, for that I’d rather just draft a guy that could be what we all hoped moncreif was.

Don't get me started on how undervalued Marvin is. But yeah, I'd shop my mid-to-late 2nd around before committing to Moncrief if I was looking for WR help in 2018 or just looking ahead to 2019. I'm just saying that I wouldn't be despondent if that's who I got for a mid-2nd. But if you're stacked at WR and just want to let a raw rookie sit on your bench for 2 years then I've got no problems with someone keeping the pick. I'm just not that excited about anyone outside of the top 6 rookies.

Pros - 5th year receiver but only turns 25 this summer.  Has caught 18 touchdowns in 27 starts (53 games played). Career highs of 64 receptions, over 700 yards and 7 touchdowns aren't terrible. Played most of his time in Indy while luck was hurt. 

Cons - has started 27 games in 4 seasons but played in 53. Was highly regarded in fantasy because he had a chance to start for Andrew luck, wasn't very successful with him, but downgraded to bortles at qb. Might not start for his own NFL team. Played in 16 games last year but only started two.  Not much draft pedigree.  On a prove it deal where he might not get to prove it, and if he does he still plays with bortles. On a run based team with a stellar defense, he will be sharing the targets from a bad qb with 3 other decent options who all have experience in the system.  

I'll pass on spending a roster spot on him personally, but I have enough dart throws already.  I'm surprised to see other people still like him enough to consider any kind of second. 

I totally get some people not wanting to burn a roster spot on him, but you'll be burning a roster spot on a rookie drafted after 2.04 for likely at least 2 years before they have a chance at significant playing time. At least with Moncrief you know he's getting paid $9.6M this year so he's probably going to get some targets. Case in point would be Godwin. I was pretty high on him, he was a 3rd round NFL pick, and he was a mid-2nd fantasy rookie pick, but he's starting his 2nd season firmly behind DeSean and Evans despite a couple nice games in week 16 & 17. 

I know it sucks that Moncrief's been in the league for 4 years and we've seen almost nothing of him, but given how young he was, year 1 was always going to be a wash. Year 2 the Colts invested in Andre Johnson so Moncrief had to take a back seat. By the time he overtook AJ, Luck was hurt. Year 3, he was the one that was hurt. Year 4, Luck hurt again. So out of his 27 starts, very few came with Luck under center, so I don't feel like I can judge him (negatively or positively). So that's why I'll take a relative unknown, his $9.6M guaranteed contract with additional incentives, and his crappy QB over a totally unknown rookie who will almost certainly get less than half Moncrief's targets in 2018.

Speaking of that $9.6M contract - that did a lot for his value, IMO. If he'd gotten a smaller contract than like John Brown or Ryan Grant, I'd pretty much write off his 2018 and would have almost no interest in him unless as a throw-in. But the fact he got as much as he did indicates multiple teams were bidding and he's in line for at least some decent volume. Contracts for veterans are kind of like draft status for rookies. I'll rethink my stance on a player if his draft pick or contract is different than I was expecting.

 

[Snorkelson]

We’ve seen nothing of him in how many starts, 27? From a metrics standpoint I liked moncreif coming out in the 2nd, but compared to other options for the same price now I like those. Cole or Dede may be better targets, or st brown or another rookie. Lots of WRs that can be had for a mid 2nd. 

 

[Snorkelson]

A really good point about the contract size, but still, bortles....

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I agree with most of this. I’m not sure I’d go after moncreif unless it’s real cheap. I’d rather pay a 2nd for Marvin Jones or a number of other WRs that have a clearer path to production. Moncreif could be wr 1 there or wr4, for that I’d rather just draft a guy that could be what we all hoped moncreif was.

Wait are there people selling Marvin Jones for a 2nd?  I certainly haven't found them.

 

[FF Ninja]

We’ve seen nothing of him in how many starts, 27? From a metrics standpoint I liked moncreif coming out in the 2nd, but compared to other options for the same price now I like those. Cole or Dede may be better targets, or st brown or another rookie. Lots of WRs that can be had for a mid 2nd. 

St. Brown will be gone before a mid-2nd. We can revisit after the NFL draft, but looking at rookie ADP now, I don't really like any WRs going outside the top ~16 picks. 

 

[az_prof]

I agree with most of this. I’m not sure I’d go after moncreif unless it’s real cheap. I’d rather pay a 2nd for Marvin Jones or a number of other WRs that have a clearer path to production. Moncreif could be wr 1 there or wr4, for that I’d rather just draft a guy that could be what we all hoped moncreif was.

Agreed. I would rather take my chances with a rookie that I take in the second or even third. Last year in my PPR league, Cooper Kupp went at 3.06. I got Jamaal Williams at 2.05 and wouldn't trade him for Moncrief.

While second and third round successes are rare, it always seems like there are a couple second round rookies and one third round rookie who have success.  I just don't think Moncrief is that likely to be anything special in Jacksonville--I wouldn't even give up my 3.01 for him, much less a second.  If I were going to trade, I would want someone like Jones who has more proven success.

And this year, while there are no super stud WRs, the WR depth is quite good and I think there will be good prospects in the mid to late second round.

 

[tkrull]

Can I get a post-FA/pre-draft price check on K.Drake?  Are we still talking 1.08-1.10?

 

[NE_REVIVAL]

Can I get a post-FA/pre-draft price check on K.Drake?  Are we still talking 1.08-1.10?

Admittedly never a fan, but i wouldn't give a 1st for him.

 

[bengalbuck]

Can I get a post-FA/pre-draft price check on K.Drake?  Are we still talking 1.08-1.10?

Yeah, 8-10 range seems about right to me. 

It's possible Miami could draft a RB in the 2nd or 3rd round, but they have so many other needs. And FA just bringing Gore was about the best possible realistic outcome. 

 

[Concept Coop]

Can I get a post-FA/pre-draft price check on K.Drake?  Are we still talking 1.08-1.10?

I've offered the 1.10 without luck.  I'll be upping that offer soon enough.

 

[FF Ninja]

Agreed. I would rather take my chances with a rookie that I take in the second or even third. Last year in my PPR league, Cooper Kupp went at 3.06. I got Jamaal Williams at 2.05 and wouldn't trade him for Moncrief.

While second and third round successes are rare, it always seems like there are a couple second round rookies and one third round rookie who have success.  I just don't think Moncrief is that likely to be anything special in Jacksonville--I wouldn't even give up my 3.01 for him, much less a second.  If I were going to trade, I would want someone like Jones who has more proven success.

And this year, while there are no super stud WRs, the WR depth is quite good and I think there will be good prospects in the mid to late second round.

It is rare. I mean, just last year we've got Ross, Zay Jones, Godwin, Samuel, Henderson, Golladay, Westbrook, Taywan Taylor, Darboh, Kupp, and Chad Williams... those were the 2nd/3rd round guys. Only one of them had a notable season and he might be the only one worth starting at WR3 in 2018. Also, I'd argue that even though Kupp had a nice rookie season, being more of a possession/slot WR caps his upside around WR3ish, maybe low-end WR2. A guy like Moncrief is more likely to bust than Kupp, but he's got more upside. He's also surprisingly a couple months younger than Kupp.

So it's obviously personal preference, but you're looking at MAYBE 10% odds of hitting on a WR who will have utility in the first year with a mid-2nd or later. While I don't love the situation, the $9.6MM contract makes me think Moncrief's odds of contributing this year are greater than that. Obviously if someone is foolish enough to trade Marvin Jones for a mid-2nd, that's the way to go. And I agree, I would not trade Jamaal Williams for Moncrief.

 

[menobrown]

Agree that it's rare to hit a second round WR but don't forget JuJu, he was a second  round pick in all my drafts.

Reality is that not a lot of first or second round hits at WR since Moncrief's draft class. Diggs and Reek Hill were not second or third round picks in any draft I was in and they have been two of the better performing rookie WR's to enter the league the last few years.

Michael Thomas has clearly been the biggest first three round dynasty pick WR to have success in last 3 years. Only to average more then 15 PPG in his career.

Here is a list of WR's who have entered the league after the 2014 draft class who were first three round picks in any league of mine that average 10 points or more per game in PPR scoring. A really low bar but it's a starting point using just receiving stats:

1. Thomas- 16.72

2. JuJu- 13.69

3. Cooper- 13.04

4. Shepard- 12.18

5. Kupp-11.92

Only Michael Thomas and Reek HIll have posted 15PPG seasons. Fuller, Funchess, Parker, and Agholor are only one's to have a single season over 10 points a game and the high mark of that group is Funchess season last year when he went a shade over 12 PPG.

 

[FF Ninja]

Agree that it's rare to hit a second round WR but don't forget JuJu, he was a second  round pick in all my drafts.

Reality is that not a lot of first or second round hits at WR since Moncrief's draft class. Diggs and Reek Hill were not second or third round picks in any draft I was in and they have been two of the better performing rookie WR's to enter the league the last few years.

Michael Thomas has clearly been the biggest first three round dynasty pick WR to have success in last 3 years. Only to average more then 15 PPG in his career.

Here is a list of WR's who have entered the league after the 2014 draft class who were first three round picks in any league of mine that average 10 points or more per game in PPR scoring. A really low bar but it's a starting point using just receiving stats:

1. Thomas- 16.72

2. JuJu- 13.69

3. Cooper- 13.04

4. Shepard- 12.18

5. Kupp-11.92

Only Michael Thomas and Reek HIll have posted 15PPG seasons. Fuller, Funchess, Parker, and Agholor are only one's to have a single season over 10 points a game and the high mark of that group is Funchess season last year when he went a shade over 12 PPG.

That's a good point about JuJu. I was just looking at the first draft I could find and it had JuJu and Ross at different spots than their consensus ADP it appears. From what I can find, it looks like JuJu had an ADP of 2.02 (and Ross 1.08) so he's still not in the mid-2nd ballpark that's been discussed in regard to Moncrief. 

Thanks for compiling the list of notable WR non-1st round rookie picks. That's a very short list!

 

[Warhogs]

The Moncrief discussion has been very helpful to me. An owner in one of my leagues has him in his trade bait and I hold picks 1.11, 2.11 & 2.12. I haven't even reached out to him and before I asked the question on his value I was thinking I could offer one of those late 2nd round picks but he will want more. That thought still may very well be the case but the discussion has me thinking is even making a trade for a late 2nd like going up to bat and hoping to hit a single? Maybe I am better off going up to bat and trying to hit a double, triple or home run even though I may strike out? My team is probably one of the oldest teams in the league but I have finished 2nd each of the last 2 seasons and I have a lot of really good veteran depth. This might be a good opportunity to cast those picks hoping to get some extra base hits? Sorry for all the baseball analogy.

 

[Spike]

If you wanted to trade Julio Jones for young player(s) and/or draft picks, what would you have to get?  As great as Julio is, the age difference is something that the other team will certainly consider as a negative.

Had an owner recently say it would take 3 1st round picks to pry Julio from him. 

And this was in a non-PPR league. 

 

[FF Ninja]

The Moncrief discussion has been very helpful to me. An owner in one of my leagues has him in his trade bait and I hold picks 1.11, 2.11 & 2.12. I haven't even reached out to him and before I asked the question on his value I was thinking I could offer one of those late 2nd round picks but he will want more. That thought still may very well be the case but the discussion has me thinking is even making a trade for a late 2nd like going up to bat and hoping to hit a single? Maybe I am better off going up to bat and trying to hit a double, triple or home run even though I may strike out? My team is probably one of the oldest teams in the league but I have finished 2nd each of the last 2 seasons and I have a lot of really good veteran depth. This might be a good opportunity to cast those picks hoping to get some extra base hits? Sorry for all the baseball analogy.

Hah, I'm not sure what the proper analogy is for that situation. Personally, where I've got a mid-2nd, I'm trying to move up in the hope that I can land Gallup or St. Brown. There's a huge drop off, IMO, after that tier of WRs. So if I was you, I'd be trying to move those late 2nds. Plus, I don't like the incubation period of mid-round (NFL) rookie WRs. Back to your analogy, I don't see Moncrief as a single. Slot/possession guys like Kupp and Crowder seem like singles to me. An outside WR with speed like Moncrief (24.7), Lockett (25.5), Coleman (23.8), or Stills (25.6) would be who I'd be targeting if I was looking for a double or triple. 

 

[Biabreakable]

The Moncrief discussion has been very helpful to me. An owner in one of my leagues has him in his trade bait and I hold picks 1.11, 2.11 & 2.12. I haven't even reached out to him and before I asked the question on his value I was thinking I could offer one of those late 2nd round picks but he will want more. That thought still may very well be the case but the discussion has me thinking is even making a trade for a late 2nd like going up to bat and hoping to hit a single? Maybe I am better off going up to bat and trying to hit a double, triple or home run even though I may strike out? My team is probably one of the oldest teams in the league but I have finished 2nd each of the last 2 seasons and I have a lot of really good veteran depth. This might be a good opportunity to cast those picks hoping to get some extra base hits? Sorry for all the baseball analogy.

If I am following your analogy I think in most cases you want to go for home runs even though you take on more risk and I don't see Moncrief ever delivering that kind of performance with Jacksonville the way they are set up right now.

Moncrief was a player that people were hoping might be a home run because of Luck. Hasn't worked out and that upside isn't there anymore for him.

 

[az_prof]

What about the relative value in rookie picks of players who were formerly first round picks and have busted so far?  I look at guys like that as having some value if they have special physical skills (size and speed) since their ceiling is high. After two years of failure they probably are not going to figure out out, but if they do? 

Treadwell=Third round pick

Corey Coleman: Third round pick 

John Ross=mid-second

Mike Williams=Early second

How do you compare these guys to Moncrief as targets?  I think I like them better because I think they have higher ceilings--I don't see him as doing better than a WR3--tops somewhere like WR20 production.

 

[Hankmoody]

So where do we slot Deshaun Watson in a startup?  I'm in a 16 man team so QB's are a bit tight in those, and this one has a classic QB hog that's holding a bunch of them.  I have Brady and am defending champ but I need a succession plan at the position.  What's Watson's value, is he a 3rd/4th rounder?  I am usually a huge cheapstake with QB's because getting a guy like Manning/Brees/Brady cheap from a rebuilder has always been so easy but those days are winding down and there's not really a next wave of that.

 

[Snorkelson]

Guess it depends on what you think of guys like Pettis, Tate, chark, Cain. You can always package 1.11/2.11/2.12 and try to get to 1.07ish. 

 

[bengalbuck]

So where do we slot Deshaun Watson in a startup?  I'm in a 16 man team so QB's are a bit tight in those, and this one has a classic QB hog that's holding a bunch of them.  I have Brady and am defending champ but I need a succession plan at the position.  What's Watson's value, is he a 3rd/4th rounder?  I am usually a huge cheapstake with QB's because getting a guy like Manning/Brees/Brady cheap from a rebuilder has always been so easy but those days are winding down and there's not really a next wave of that.

To me the play in recent years has been (and still is) to take advantage of how much rookie QBs have been devalued in rookie drafts over trying to trade for one that has already had success. Last year's top 3 rookie QBs were usually available late 2nd or 3rd round in rookie drafts. I think it'll be similar with this rookie class and it'll be easier to target one or two of Darnold, Allen, Jackson, Rosen, Mayfield vs. paying a heavy price for Mahomes/Watson.

 

[Hankmoody]

To me the play in recent years has been (and still is) to take advantage of how much rookie QBs have been devalued in rookie drafts over trying to trade for one that has already had success. Last year's top 3 rookie QBs were usually available late 2nd or 3rd round in rookie drafts. I think it'll be similar with this rookie class and it'll be easier to target one or two of Darnold, Allen, Jackson, Rosen, Mayfield vs. paying a heavy price for Mahomes/Watson.

Thanks but that is not what I'm asking because it's not how my league works.  We have contracts that tick away and limited taxi spots that are extremely valuable so sitting on a QB has a much higher opportunity cost and QB's don't last that long - in the league in question Mahomes and Watson were both 1st rounders, Goff and Wentz both went 1.10ish.  I do plan to draft two as I have 1.16 and 2.02 but I still want to add Watson.  I'm all in on him talent-wise (I wasn't last April) and I'm happy in those situations to wait and see and pay more than toss dollars at guys that whiff.

 

[Zyphros]

If I am following your analogy I think in most cases you want to go for home runs even though you take on more risk and I don't see Moncrief ever delivering that kind of performance with Jacksonville the way they are set up right now.

Moncrief was a player that people were hoping might be a home run because of Luck. Hasn't worked out and that upside isn't there anymore for him.

I disagree his upside is limited, especially for dynasty leagues.  If you're buying now it's not for the year in the Jaguars offense, it's for the years after he's re-established himself.  It's a 1 year rental for him to regain value.  He was always good when on the field, especially for TD"s, and if he proves health then his upside remains pretty high.  

 

[Raback]

What about the relative value in rookie picks of players who were formerly first round picks and have busted so far?  I look at guys like that as having some value if they have special physical skills (size and speed) since their ceiling is high. After two years of failure they probably are not going to figure out out, but if they do? 

Treadwell=Third round pick

Corey Coleman: Third round pick 

John Ross=mid-second

Mike Williams=Early second

How do you compare these guys to Moncrief as targets?  I think I like them better because I think they have higher ceilings--I don't see him as doing better than a WR3--tops somewhere like WR20 production.

In one league where I took over a team that had John Ross on it I can’t give him away.  I offered Ross/1.06/2.06 for 1.05/2.05 and was quickly rejected.  

 

[Biabreakable]

I disagree his upside is limited, especially for dynasty leagues.  If you're buying now it's not for the year in the Jaguars offense, it's for the years after he's re-established himself.  It's a 1 year rental for him to regain value.  He was always good when on the field, especially for TD"s, and if he proves health then his upside remains pretty high.  

How high?

With Luck and the possibility that Moncrief could have been their top WR he had top 12 upside. I never really thought he was good enough to achieve that and considered him a top 24 WR but not a top 12 WR with Luck.

With Brotles I am not really seeing him as having top 24 upside anymore. To me his upside is capped as a WR 3 or top 36 but not likely top 24 in his current situation.

As you are talking about his value after this season if he re-establishes himself as what? The top WR for the Jaguars? If he does that and then gets a new contract with another team and a better situation to put up numbers for fantasy, well that is a lot of ifs and unknowns to be putting value into.

Moncriefs best season was in 2015. He finished as WR 38 in standard scoring leagues WR 37 in PPR leagues, so he hasn't finished as a WR 3 yet and his situation at least for now has gotten worse.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

In one league where I took over a team that had John Ross on it I can’t give him away.  I offered Ross/1.06/2.06 for 1.05/2.05 and was quickly rejected.  

Why would you even do that - the chance that Ross is worthy of being the Top 10 pick that he was is worth far more than a one spot bump. 

I’m surprised that was turned down.

 

[FF Ninja]

What about the relative value in rookie picks of players who were formerly first round picks and have busted so far?  I look at guys like that as having some value if they have special physical skills (size and speed) since their ceiling is high. After two years of failure they probably are not going to figure out out, but if they do? 

Treadwell=Third round pick

Corey Coleman: Third round pick 

John Ross=mid-second

Mike Williams=Early second

How do you compare these guys to Moncrief as targets?  I think I like them better because I think they have higher ceilings--I don't see him as doing better than a WR3--tops somewhere like WR20 production.

I want no part of Ross or Mike Williams, but I would expect them to have more trade value than Moncrief.

I would take Corey Coleman over Moncrief, but I seriously doubt anyone is parting with him for a 3rd. I know his value is deflated with Landry's arrival, but still - I can't imagine anyone letting him go for a 3rd. I'd snap accept if someone offered me Coleman for a mid-2nd. 

Treadwell is buried behind Diggs and Thielen. He's young (22.8), though, so while I wouldn't write him off, I'll let him clog someone else's roster for a year or two before I consider trying to get him as a throw-in. 

 

[Aunt Jemima]

Why would you even do that - the chance that Ross is worthy of being the Top 10 pick that he was is worth far more than a one spot bump. 

I’m surprised that was turned down.

If it is FFPC it makes sense, we have to cut to 14 position players by the is weekend. Accepting that deal would mean Ross was one of your 14 and then you'd have to cut someone else. I know it isn't 'true dynasty' but it is what a lot of owners in this thread play.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

How high?

With Luck and the possibility that Moncrief could have been their top WR he had top 12 upside. I never really thought he was good enough to achieve that and considered him a top 24 WR but not a top 12 WR with Luck.

With Brotles I am not really seeing him as having top 24 upside anymore. To me his upside is capped as a WR 3 or top 36 but not likely top 24 in his current situation.

As you are talking about his value after this season if he re-establishes himself as what? The top WR for the Jaguars? If he does that and then gets a new contract with another team and a better situation to put up numbers for fantasy, well that is a lot of ifs and unknowns to be putting value into.

Moncriefs best season was in 2015. He finished as WR 38 in standard scoring leagues WR 37 in PPR leagues, so he hasn't finished as a WR 3 yet and his situation at least for now has gotten worse.

If you go to the Moncrief thread you'll see that I am the furthest thing from a Moncrief truther as there is, but there is still reasonable upside there, even if unlikely.

For all the flak he takes around here, Bortles has actually produced a lot of stretches of fantasy relevance for quite a few different WRs.  A lot more than a lot of other QBs that people don't discount as fantasy WR killers.  Robinson and Hurns each had a nice fantasy season, Lee has had some pretty good stretches, and even Keelan Cole was a top 5 fantasy WR the last month of last season after he won more playing time.

Even with the Bortles effect the Jags have been in the top half of the league the last few years in raw passing numbers, well ahead of teams like Carolina, Baltimore, Cincinnati, etc that people aren't avoiding like they do with Jacksonville.

Moncrief's contract looks like he'll get a fair shake at the #1 spot for the Jags.  I'm not saying it's likely but if he can put together even an Allen Hurns level season he could enter next year's FA as a top commodity.

 

[FF Ninja]

Arguing Moncrief's career stats is the lamest argument against him.

Yes, playing with Luck was why everyone wanted Moncrief... but as we all know, he never got to start with Luck for even half a season. 

Sure, he played 16 games in 2015... but Andre Johnson was bought in to start opposite Hilton AND Luck only played 7 games that year.

So in 2015, Moncrief played 7 games with Luck which amounted to 54 targets, 32 rec, 351 yards, and 5 TDs. Extrapolated over 16 games, that would be 123 targets, 73 receptions, 802 yards, 11 touchdowns. Not bad for a raw 22 year old 2nd year player..

in 2016, he was injured in the 1st quarter of week 2, missed 5 games, played 6 games, got injured in the 2nd quarter of week 14, missed week 15, played week 16, and then missed week 17. Pro football reference says he started 7 of those 9 games. Not sure how much info can be drawn from that kind of season, although he did score a TD in 7 of the 9 games.

I'm not saying Moncrief is a stud. I'm just saying it's dumb to look at his career, marred by QB injuries and his own, and say he's got no upside. He's been solid in the red zone, he's still very young, and his athleticism is through the roof.

If someone wants to say he's injury prone or unproven, that's fine. But pointing to his stat line is weak sauce. We all know there have been extenuating circumstances.

To give some reference of how the QB play dipped in 2015, let's look at TY Hilton:
2014: 131 targets - 82/1345/7 *Moncrief rookie*
2015: 134 targets - 69/1124/5 *Moncrief's "best" year*
2016: 155 targets - 91/1448/6 *Moncrief misses 7 whole games and 5 quarters*
2017: 109 targets - 57/966/4 *the Jocoby year*

 

[FF Ninja]

Even with the Bortles effect the Jags have been in the top half of the league the last few years in raw passing numbers, well ahead of teams like Carolina, Baltimore, Cincinnati, etc that people aren't avoiding like they do with Jacksonville.

For some additional reference:

2015 IND: 3928 yards, 26 TDs
2015 JAX: 4428 yards, 35 TDs

2017 IND: 3226 yards, 13 TDs
2017 JAX: 3687 yards, 21 TDs

Maybe I'm delusional, but I don't even consider myself a Moncrief truther. He wouldn't even by my first choice of who to target in the hypothetical situation of buying a WR with a mid-to-late 2nd. I just don't understand how people can write him off. One must blindly look at career stats while totally ignoring context to say he's got no upside. 

 

[Biabreakable]

If you go to the Moncrief thread you'll see that I am the furthest thing from a Moncrief truther as there is, but there is still reasonable upside there, even if unlikely.

For all the flak he takes around here, Bortles has actually produced a lot of stretches of fantasy relevance for quite a few different WRs.  A lot more than a lot of other QBs that people don't discount as fantasy WR killers.  Robinson and Hurns each had a nice fantasy season, Lee has had some pretty good stretches, and even Keelan Cole was a top 5 fantasy WR the last month of last season after he won more playing time.

Even with the Bortles effect the Jags have been in the top half of the league the last few years in raw passing numbers, well ahead of teams like Carolina, Baltimore, Cincinnati, etc that people aren't avoiding like they do with Jacksonville.

Moncrief's contract looks like he'll get a fair shake at the #1 spot for the Jags.  I'm not saying it's likely but if he can put together even an Allen Hurns level season he could enter next year's FA as a top commodity.

The Jaguars offense clearly changed last season with the addition of Fournette and Bortles only had 523 passing attempts in 16 games last year, compared to 625 and 606 the previous two seasons. Unless the defense does a face plant I would consider 2017 number to be more likely than the previous two years, when the Jaguars often found themselves in a losing situation and were forced to throw the ball more.

So talking about what Allen Robinson did in the offense in 2015 or 2016 doesn't seem like the model I would use for Jacksonvilles offense in 2018. it should be more like 2017.

Joe Flacco hasn't been on an offense this conservative, he had 549 and 672 pass attempts the last two seasons. He missed 6 games in 2015 but was on pace for 661 passing attempts that year as well. He just isn't very good and the weapons also haven't really been there for him to do better. 

It is pretty well known that Robinsons great season was a product of volume and garbage time. Is that the type of season you expect Jacksonville to revert back to? I don't. I think it will be more similar to last year.

Moncrief would need to earn the WR spot with the Jaguars, thats not a given at all. I think DeDe Westbrook is a pretty good player and he would be the upside guy I would bet on for that offense, but I still wouldn't expect better than WR 3 numbers for fantasy from any of them.

You guys seem to think I am being overly critical of Moncrief, while I think I am just telling it like it is.

I will ask you the same question as Zypros though. What do you think Moncriefs upside is with the Jaguars? If you think that is higher than a WR 3 for fantasy then I disagree with you.

WR 3 do have value for fantasy, even WR 4 and WR 5 tiers have some value as spot starters as you mention, however it isn't much value over replacement level and therefore little value in trade.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

The Jaguars offense clearly changed last season with the addition of Fournette and Bortles only had 523 passing attempts in 16 games last year, compared to 625 and 606 the previous two seasons. Unless the defense does a face plant I would consider 2017 number to be more likely than the previous two years, when the Jaguars often found themselves in a losing situation and were forced to throw the ball more.

So talking about what Allen Robinson did in the offense in 2015 or 2016 doesn't seem like the model I would use for Jacksonvilles offense in 2018. it should be more like 2017.

Joe Flacco hasn't been on an offense this conservative, he had 549 and 672 pass attempts the last two seasons. He missed 6 games in 2015 but was on pace for 661 passing attempts that year as well. He just isn't very good and the weapons also haven't really been there for him to do better. 

It is pretty well known that Robinsons great season was a product of volume and garbage time. Is that the type of season you expect Jacksonville to revert back to? I don't. I think it will be more similar to last year.

Moncrief would need to earn the WR spot with the Jaguars, thats not a given at all. I think DeDe Westbrook is a pretty good player and he would be the upside guy I would bet on for that offense, but I still wouldn't expect better than WR 3 numbers for fantasy from any of them.

You guys seem to think I am being overly critical of Moncrief, while I think I am just telling it like it is.

I will ask you the same question as Zypros though. What do you think Moncriefs upside is with the Jaguars? If you think that is higher than a WR 3 for fantasy then I disagree with you.

WR 3 do have value for fantasy, even WR 4 and WR 5 tiers have some value as spot starters as you mention, however it isn't much value over replacement level and therefore little value in trade.

Well we are talking about upside here, and we all know elite defenses don't always stay elite for long.  The Jags D looks like the next Seahawks, but so did the Broncos' and they spent the entirety of last year in garbage time.

Regardless, even if we assume the Jags stay consistent to the same style they played last year, where does that leave Moncrief's upside?  I guess about the same place as any other team that throws for ~3500 yards and 22 TDs, which is more than the QBs of last year's #2, #4, #5, and #10 overall fantasy WRs.  Obviously I don't expect Moncrief to finish that high, but this idea that middle of the road passing numbers isn't enough for fantasy production is made up.  The Jags were 17th in the NFL in passing yards last year and 18th in pass TDs.  That's enough to sustain a fantasy WR, it was just spread out last year.

The Jags' WR1 changed several times last year because their WR1 kept getting injured.  Robinson, then Lee, then Cole.  As a position, the Jags' WR1 last year put up 76-950-5.  That would have been a low WR2 but that's assuming that Moncrief isn't better than any of those guys to produce more as the WR1 if he wins the job, and we're talking about upside here so we certainly can't discount that possibility.

Even if we put his ceiling at that (it's not), you get a 25 year old coming off a 76-950-5 season heading into free agency and you have one of the offseason's hottest commodities.  Consider that Marvin Jones was pulling in pretty good value when he hit FA as a 26 year old coming off a 65-800-4 season.

Regardless, a highly paid 24 year old WR with elite measurables playing on an offense that puts up middle of the road passing numbers (higher numbers than several of last year's top fantasy WRs played alongside) is not lacking in upside.  Unlikely to hit that upside?  Sure.  I think he sucks, personally.  But if he puts it together with those measurables (and given the contract the Jags seems to think that there is at least a chance of that) the upside is certainly there for him to become a pretty valuable fantasy piece.  The Jags didn't lack the passing production to sustain a good fantasy WR last year, they just lacked the WR to take advantage of it.

 

[Biabreakable]

Even if we put his ceiling at that (it's not), you get a 25 year old coming off a 76-950-5 season heading into free agency and you have one of the offseason's hottest commodities.  Consider that Marvin Jones was pulling in pretty good value when he hit FA as a 26 year old coming off a 65-800-4 season.

Who are you talking about here?

Donte Moncrief

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Who are you talking about here?

Donte Moncrief

I was saying if Moncrief wins the Jags WR1 job and puts up the same production that the WR1 position did last year (it just changed names several times because of injuries), that's what he would be heading into FA next year.

And again, that's assuming that he doesn't end up being better than the revolving injury door they had playing the position last year.

 

[Biabreakable]

I was saying if Moncrief wins the Jags WR1 job and puts up the same production that the WR1 position did last year (it just changed names several times because of injuries), that's what he would be heading into FA next year.

And again, that's assuming that he doesn't end up being better than the revolving injury door they had playing the position last year.

Because Moncrief has been able to stay healthy?

Hey if people still want to value Moncrief as more valuable then a WR 3 for fantasy then it is something where I might try to buy him for a late 2nd round rookie pick and see if I can flip him for more than that, but I wouldn't be looking to buy and hold.

I am still not clear on what you think his upside is, or how one should go about trying to quantify that, you do seem to be suggesting it is higher than WR 3 numbers, even when you do not think Moncrief is a very good WR. 

Personally it wouldn't be very hard for me to find 36 WR who I think have more upside than Moncrief.

 

[Zyphros]

His upside with the Jags is the #1 target in that offense.  Westbrook, although I like him as a potential breakout guy, isn't a guy that commands targets, neither is Lee or Cole.  Moncrief from a talent perspective is better than all of them I'd say, and if you go simply on that, he'll get the targets of a #1 WR.  I think he could end up being a back end WR2 for the year if things break the right way.  Lee probably being the best WR the last 2 years on that team finished as WR41 and WR40.  That's not great obviously but Allen Robinson also finished as WR26 in 2016 along with Lee at WR40 so the targets seem to be there, even with Fournette.  Lee also had one of the worst drops rate if I'm not mistaken which would hinder his numbers a bit.  Add in the knack that Moncrief showed for the endzone, I don't think finishing outside of WR30 is a stretch.

 

[Biabreakable]

His upside with the Jags is the #1 target in that offense.  Westbrook, although I like him as a potential breakout guy, isn't a guy that commands targets, neither is Lee or Cole.  Moncrief from a talent perspective is better than all of them I'd say, and if you go simply on that, he'll get the targets of a #1 WR.  I think he could end up being a back end WR2 for the year if things break the right way.  Lee probably being the best WR the last 2 years on that team finished as WR41 and WR40.  That's not great obviously but Allen Robinson also finished as WR26 in 2016 along with Lee at WR40 so the targets seem to be there, even with Fournette.  Lee also had one of the worst drops rate if I'm not mistaken which would hinder his numbers a bit.  Add in the knack that Moncrief showed for the endzone, I don't think finishing outside of WR30 is a stretch.

Robinson had 151 targets in 2015 and 2016 with much different results when he performed as a good WR for fantasy. WR 4 (6th in PPR) in 2015 and WR 29 (28th in PPR) in 2016. Thats a hige swing in variance with not much else having changed. Same QB throwing to him. Same offense.

I don't see Moncrief as being as good a WR as Allen Robinson, never have, and their careers so far bear that out. I am not sure he is any better than Westbrook who I think runs much better routes and is a more reliable target than Moncrief is. Maqqise Lee may be a better WR than him as well. I can see the passing distribution split between multiple players, whether they are injured or not and that more even distribution of targets capping the upside of all of them, unless other players are injured and one of them becomes the main guy as a result of that. To me there are all similarly talented players.

FWIW ZWK has Moncrief as WR 50 in his recent rankings.

Mike Clay put out some rankings recently, and he has him as WR 64.

Do you think this is too low?

 

[Bojang0301]

I’m not hot about Moncrief’s prospects. If I had to offer him a defense though, it’s that there wasn’t a lot of consistency in Jacksonville’s starting WR’s last year. Looking at the targets I actually believe that Keelan Cole is the value play here. Between him and Hurns they saw 139 targets and there were only two WR’s logging snaps in the slot last year. I’ll give you a guess who those WR’s were.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Because Moncrief has been able to stay healthy?

Eesh, I like you Bia but you've been doing this a lot lately.  You enter a conversation about one thing and start making points about something totally different.

Per your own parameters, we are talking about Moncrief's upside here.  So yes, in a conversation about Moncrief's UPSIDE I am including him staying healthy as part of his upside, as it would be in any player's UPSIDE.

 

[Biabreakable]

Eesh, I like you Bia but you've been doing this a lot lately.  You enter a conversation about one thing and start making points about something totally different.

Per your own parameters, we are talking about Moncrief's upside here.  So yes, in a conversation about Moncrief's UPSIDE I am including him staying healthy as part of his upside, as it would be in any player's UPSIDE.

Say upside some more. Maybe my rote I will get it.

I wish we could just talk about the topic at hand instead of talking about me and trying to paint my position as whatever. Obviously there are many different variables to consider in any players value. When your making the Frankenstein healthy WR one from the Jaguars as a example of the type of numbers that might be Moncriefs upside, the issue of his durability to me does seem to be a factor to consider while doing that. Generally when making a projection I will expect 16 games for all players though, even ones who have missed a lot of time to injury.

Just going through Mike Clays list and I see he only has 8 rookies ranked higher than Moncrief so maybe he can be traded for a later 1st round pick to folks who really like him. 

 

[Ben & Jerry's]

Price check on Tevin Coleman ? 12 team ppr IDP dynasty. In terms of rookie pick. TIA.

 

[menobrown]

Price check on Tevin Coleman ? 12 team ppr IDP dynasty. In terms of rookie pick. TIA.

Can't say I've seen him traded in a league of mine this off-season so not sure but he's probably undervalued. IMO he should be valued the way people valued Derrick Henry this time last year but I'm guessing he's not.

 

[Raback]

Why would you even do that - the chance that Ross is worthy of being the Top 10 pick that he was is worth far more than a one spot bump. 

I’m surprised that was turned down.

Not a believer in Ross at all, need to clear roster space, and I believe there is a significant droppoff after the top 5 rookies 

 

[Snorkelson]

Can't say I've seen him traded in a league of mine this off-season so not sure but he's probably undervalued. IMO he should be valued the way people valued Derrick Henry this time last year but I'm guessing he's not.

I’d bet in 50%+ of the leagues the Coleman owner also owns freeman. These owners aren’t likely to part with him. The others are probably valuing him as a late 1st, early 2nd. He has value as a flex or bye week fill in. His price will go up if he hits free agency, so now is the time.

 

[menobrown]

I’d bet in 50%+ of the leagues the Coleman owner also owns freeman. These owners aren’t likely to part with him. The others are probably valuing him as a late 1st, early 2nd. He has value as a flex or bye week fill in. His price will go up if he hits free agency, so now is the time.

You would think but I'm in 9 dynasty leagues and the total of Coleman/Freeman owners is one. That one is me.

Out of the other 8 leagues I own Coleman twice and Freeman once so maybe I'm part of why the duo ownership percentage is so small but I do value it. Just way it works with factors such as my roster, RB depth, trade demands.

 

[bengalbuck]

Thanks but that is not what I'm asking because it's not how my league works.  We have contracts that tick away and limited taxi spots that are extremely valuable so sitting on a QB has a much higher opportunity cost and QB's don't last that long - in the league in question Mahomes and Watson were both 1st rounders, Goff and Wentz both went 1.10ish.  I do plan to draft two as I have 1.16 and 2.02 but I still want to add Watson.  I'm all in on him talent-wise (I wasn't last April) and I'm happy in those situations to wait and see and pay more than toss dollars at guys that whiff.

Gotcha. Seems like QB-trade value is way different depending upon the league, so impossible for me to really answer your original question. 

Watson is going in the 50s overall in 1-QB dynasty startups so should theoretically only cost a WR2 type in trade, but sounds like he might cost more in your league

 

[Bogey0820]

Did a quick search and I didn't see this one come up. 

How about AJ Green?  Still playing well, but I feel is on a horrible team which could crash and burn quickly and is turning 30 this summer.  I am wondering if it's time to start putting his name out there to see what I would/could get in return.

If you had AJ Green what would you hope to get back from a draft pick point of view or a player point of view?  I'm interested to hear what individuals with Green are doing.

Thanks!