What are the thoughts on Kenny Golladay and Chris Godwin? Both are kind of in the same boat for me. Flashed talent as a rookie but situation likely dictates they are still a year away from making a real fantasy impact. Are you buying (or holding) these guys or are you looking to flip them while they still hold the “potential” tag for more proven producers. What would you currently value them at in terms of rookie picks?
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (8 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Well my original question was just asking about generic startup values, it's easy enough for me to translate that back to my league specifics. I am just wondering where people see him overall. What's your source for the bolded, I don't have anything definitive for those.
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Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
Godwin>>Golladay for me. I think DeSean is almost certainly gone in 2019 and it wouldn't be surprising if he misses a few games in 2018. I wouldn't be surprised if Detroit signs Tate to an extension, though, so Golladay could be 3rd on the depth chart for his whole rookie contract. I also just like Godwin as a talent more than Golladay. But Golladay has the better QB, IMO, so that's a plus for him.
Right or wrong, due to rookie fever, I assume both are probably valued around a late 2nd, early 3rd. Anyone drafting them last year (probably in the mid-2nd) should've expected a 1-2 year incubation period, but the fact they didn't emerge in year 1 will always cause value to dip.
If I had AJ Green, I'd be holding. At age 30 with back-to-back disappointing seasons (relatively speaking, of course), I think his value is too low to trade. He's a talented WR who should be in his prime for 2 years and then still productive for 2-3 more years. I could be wrong, but I think he's only going to fetch a late 1st at this point. I'd take the production over the odds of a late 1st panning out... unless I was just overloaded at WR and could use RB help. I think a late 1st should net you a nice RB.
The other option would be to wait until the season starts. The CIN OL should be improved this year, so Dalton might be more effective. If Green starts off hot, you might be able to swing a pretty nice trade at that point.
Probably closer to a mid-1st, but he's rapidly approaching "worthless" in terms of dynasty trade value. Yes, it's likely you'll get a couple years of solid/great production out of him, and if your roster is designed to win in that timeframe, he's a great addition.
However, anyone acquiring or holding him today has to understand that there's a high probability that they will get almost nothing for him 6-12 months from now. And that's fine if you're comfortable with riding him into the sunset. I own Larry Fitz in multiple leagues and would rather just take the remaining production than the lottery ticket that he's "worth" in draft picks.
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
Unless someone comes calling with a strong offer I'm holding. I think his sub-par season and age have lowered his trade value more than it should. Just the season before he entered week 11 as one of 4 WR's in the league averaging over 20 fantasy points a game before suffering season ending injury. I don't think he got worse last year, just the supporting cast.
Julio, AJ, Dez, AB and Demaryious are all similar aged big name WR's and going back several years ago I've tried to forecast how I think their games hold up as they age. Right now it's looking like I might be wrong and AB is the guy holding up the best but I always thought it would be Green. He's even said something similar in an interview a year or two ago when he was discussing Calvin and noting differences in his game that should lead to more longevity. That major difference to me is that Green has always been more of a finesse WR, does not take the pounding some of these other WR's take, AB excluded. My point is if I'm going to pick a 30 year old longtime stud WR I want to ride to the finish line Green is that guy.
Saying I'm holding is based on what I view his current price as mid first. I've seen trades go down where he got back like 1.2, that I'd trade him for.
Golladay by quite a bit and that's not a knock on Godwin who looks promising. Golladya has considerable more opportunity in both the short term and next few years. More than I think people are realizing. Buy. Now.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I don't see Golladay as having more opportunity, myself. DET is a slightly better situation, but they both have to climb the depth chart for it to matter.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
I think Kenny g gets involved if he stays healthy. Add the fact that te perhaps takes a step back in workload and a mini breakout could be a pretty safe bet, although I’d temper the expectations a little. Tate and jones will have contracts expiring though so now is certainly the time to buy.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
After how he closed the season, Godwin will be involved as well. I just don't see how one has considerably more opportunity than the other.
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It's crowded in Tampa and you got a major alpha target guy in Evans. DJAX, Evans and the two TE's to me is a lot. Where does Godwin fit in 2018? Do any of those 3 WR's play in the slot over Humphries? Will Tampa run a lot more two TE offenses then 3 WR packages? I just don't see where he fits in for any kind of consistent role so long as DJAX and Evans are healthy. He'll likely eat into some DJAX snaps next year but that's just going to be work against both of them. 2019 he likely can claim ownership of that job next to Evans but he'll still be the #2WR to a high target Evans in an offense likely to heavily use the TE.
Here is what I don't think people realize. Golladay is one of the 3 starting WR's for the Lions. He's not a backup. His hamstring held him back a lot last season but he closed the final 4 games of the season outsnapping Golden Tate by a little each game. And I'd add that everyone was healthy, Golladay was not forced into action. Tate runs out of the slot 90% of the time, Golladay and Marvin Jones are the two starting outside WR's for the Lions. Now they may yet add someone but you've now removed Ebron and his 80+ targets.
So for me in 2018 I got starting WR in Golladay in an offense where the high target guy last year was 120 and they just lost a major 80+ target guy vs parttime/backup WR in an offense where the leading target guy was 136 targets but he missed a game so would have prorated to 145 targets and they've lost no one. In 2018 Golladay looks to be head and shoulders in the best situation to carve out a big piece of pie.
Then look into 2019. DJAX likely gone in Tampa but you still got Evans, the two TE's and Humphries running out of the slot. Meanwhile in Detroit the high target guy, Tate, sees his contract run out in 2018 and while that likely won't alter Golladay's snap count it will his usage.
To me they are comparable talents in vastly different situations.
Here is what I don't think people realize. Golladay is one of the 3 starting WR's for the Lions. He's not a backup. His hamstring held him back a lot last season but he closed the final 4 games of the season outsnapping Golden Tate by a little each game. And I'd add that everyone was healthy, Golladay was not forced into action. Tate runs out of the slot 90% of the time, Golladay and Marvin Jones are the two starting outside WR's for the Lions. Now they may yet add someone but you've now removed Ebron and his 80+ targets.
So for me in 2018 I got starting WR in Golladay in an offense where the high target guy last year was 120 and they just lost a major 80+ target guy vs parttime/backup WR in an offense where the leading target guy was 136 targets but he missed a game so would have prorated to 145 targets and they've lost no one. In 2018 Golladay looks to be head and shoulders in the best situation to carve out a big piece of pie.
Then look into 2019. DJAX likely gone in Tampa but you still got Evans, the two TE's and Humphries running out of the slot. Meanwhile in Detroit the high target guy, Tate, sees his contract run out in 2018 and while that likely won't alter Golladay's snap count it will his usage.
To me they are comparable talents in vastly different situations.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I think Golladay has to beat out Jones or Tate to be startable next season. I don't like the odds of him doing that. I don't think Godwin is likely to be startable either, but he only has Jackson in his way. Maybe Detroit is a bit better in 2018, but I just don't think it's going to matter; certainly not enough for me to take one over the other. A lot is going to change by the kickoff of the 2019 season, and I'm not sure it's wise to put much stock in it today. At least not for question marks like these 2.
Golden Tate was playing through a separated shoulder or some similar injury last year. If Golladay outsnapped him, that's why. But being the "starting WR in 3WR sets" just doesn't get me excited. I think he's as high on the depth chart as he'll ever be while on the Lions.
Godwin has a clear path to start in 2019 and he luckily got to start weeks 16 and 17 last season, putting up 10 receptions for over 200 yards and a TD.
So both of them are unstartable in 2018. Golladay having a slightly better (but still unstartable) situation does nothing for me. I either want starter points now or starter points later. I'll take two years of dud stat lines and two years of starter stat lines over four years of "better than nothing but still not fantasy WR3" stat lines.
Also, Godwin is two years younger than Golladay. Maybe it's just me, but Godwin was always on my radar. I was surprised Golladay was selected on Day 2 which gave him a big ADP bump and then he was a preseason hype guy which gave him another bump.
Godwin has a clear path to start in 2019 and he luckily got to start weeks 16 and 17 last season, putting up 10 receptions for over 200 yards and a TD.
So both of them are unstartable in 2018. Golladay having a slightly better (but still unstartable) situation does nothing for me. I either want starter points now or starter points later. I'll take two years of dud stat lines and two years of starter stat lines over four years of "better than nothing but still not fantasy WR3" stat lines.
Also, Godwin is two years younger than Golladay. Maybe it's just me, but Godwin was always on my radar. I was surprised Golladay was selected on Day 2 which gave him a big ADP bump and then he was a preseason hype guy which gave him another bump.
No, that's wrong. Both were dealing with injuries. Golden Tate is slot WR, that's the why.
I've said what I got to say on the subject and really shared more than I intended. Hopefully everyone fails to view Golladay's talent and situation as some of you do.
No, it's not wrong. Tate was supposed to miss multiple weeks with that injury, but he played through it:
https://www.si.com/nfl/2017/10/16/golden-tate-injury-status-detroit-lions
I'd rather own Fitz for the next 5 years, personally. He's going to break Rice's records.
You may think it's crazy, but look at Calvin Johnson. Great production, good production, gone. That fall off, when it happens, is a cliff.
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Wrong if you think that's the reason. He played with an injury just like Golladay neither 100% and if was that bad to cause him to get less snaps they'd have sat him when eliminated. He plays less snaps because he is almost strictly the slot WR.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Seems like a 50/50 coin flip, not a hot taek.
2017 - Green +3 points
2016 - Fitz +18 points
2015 - Green +14 points
Snorkelson
Footballguy
But for the next 5 years? 2018 is whatever, then you get diddley from fitz 2019-on probably.
You didn't see where I planted my flag on that one? Just look up a few posts and you'll see that I am on record saying Fitz will break Rice's records.
Think what you want to think, but Golladay missed time and came back healthy. Tate played through injury. Not the same thing at all.
Golladay might turn out to be a fine player... I've got no crystal ball. But he's 3rd on the depth chart for the foreseeable future. I don't want an NFL WR3 in my starting lineup, so whether he's "starting" in 3WR sets or not, he's on the bench same as Godwin would be. Having a better unstartable situation does not move the needle for me.
Disclaimer: I have neither player. Would trade for Godwin. Would not trade for Golliday.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Yeah, I guess I’m confused as to why you expect fitz to be playing 5 more years when he seemed to be thinking hard about retirement this year.
Bruce Arians and Carson Palmer. He loved playing for/with those guys.
The fact that he didn't retire after the new coaching hire and free agency moves tells me that he still has a lot that he wants to play for. Besides, he's only just started getting national endorsement deals. If he hangs up the cleats, those dry up immediately.
It's also very possible that I'm grasping at straws because I own SO MANY shares of him across my dynasty leagues.
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Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
My team at work says this phrase often, after much cajoling: "Hope isn't a strategy."
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
This is a really weird argument to make given that the guy you're defending hit that fall off even worse than Green at the same age. Fitz went 71-798-4 when he was AJG's age.
kutta
Footballguy
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
So you think Green is more likely to fall off a cliff even though he's 5 years younger? Strange but okay.
Calvin retired, that's pretty irrelevant. I'm not sure why this applies to Green and not Fitz. Are Green and Calvin clones. I'm confused.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Yeah, in hindsight, but AJG's QB play was really poor this year as well.
The point is, it's really weird to make an argument that a slightly down year for a WR at age 29 is about to be a cliff when the very guy on the other side of the argument had an (even worse) down year at age 29 and didn't fall off a cliff. Heck Fitzgerald stunk for 3 years and in two of those the Cardinals threw for more yards and TDs than the Bengals did this year.
It's just such a weird argument to make because if someone said that a year like AJG just had is a signal of the end then we would naturally point to guys like Fitz and Wayne for proof that's not necessarily the case, but in this case it's doubly weird because Fitz is ALREADY in the conversation.
Andrew74
Footballguy
I’d say 2016 isn’t great for Fitz since AJG missed 6 games and only trailed Fitz by 18 points.
oldmanhawkins
Footballguy
I would add a future first or two (expecting them to be late) to AB or Julio to get OBJ or Nuk.
I own Evans but I wouldn’t overpay to acquire him if I didn’t. Hesitant because of Jameis.
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Ray Barboni
Footballguy
Does this mean I need to sell my Julio +mid first to get AB?
Seems expensive.
Almost makes more sense to keep stub Julio and take my chances in the rookie draft -
Andrew74
Footballguy
I believe he’s saying Julio or AB + mid 1st to get a younger stud like Hopkins or OBJ.
Ray Barboni
Footballguy
I still believe that that's too expensive. Both Hopkins and OBJ have huge question marks - Julio and AB don't.
oldmanhawkins
Footballguy
I’m not really fazed by the Obj drama and I must be overlooking something about Hopkins. Those two are the top 2 dynasty assets in ppr in my mind, I figured you’d need to pay up to get ‘em.
kutta
Footballguy
They may not have question marks but they are giving up 4 years to those guys. You gotta pay something for getting those guys through their primes.
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Andrew74
Footballguy
buck naked
Footballguy
Julio doesn't? Wat?
Julio had 3 tds last year. 3. Other than his stat-skewing game of 51 points, he scored over 20 points only two more times last year. He hasn't scored double digit TDs since 2012. Recent foot injuries are always a concern.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Julio's targets have been declining every year. He was saved last year by one monster game that made his end of year numbers look better. Next year he'll likely go for 80-1200-4 and at age 30 coming off a year like that his value will be a shell of what it is now.
As far as what it would take to get OBJ/Hopkins with him, as an OBJ owner I don't think I'd take (or even strongly consider) Julio+1.02 for him.
As far as what it would take to get OBJ/Hopkins with him, as an OBJ owner I don't think I'd take (or even strongly consider) Julio+1.02 for him.
Ben & Jerry's
Footballguy
Tarik Cohen has about as much sleeper value of anyone right now. Nagy will not use this guy like John Fox did.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
What huge question marks does Hopkins have? I think he has the fewest of the 4. Julio maybe the most.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
What are you basing this on? Everything I’ve read said Golladay was never fully recovered - and he missed five games.
Based on the fact that he had 5 games to heal. But it is really a minor point compared to the fact that he's at best the third WR on that team. I don't really care if he puts up fantasy WR4 points to outscore Godwin's WR5 points this year. Both are bench players for 2018 and bench points don't matter. I think Godwin is more likely to be a fantasy starter in 2019. But I don't have a dog in this fight so I don't really care.
